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Abstract
Lightning around the world poses a significant threat to life, infrastructure, and economic sectors. This study evaluates lightning risk at the municipal level in Mexico, recognizing the interplay of hazard and vulnerability in risk estimation. Despite declining lightning-related fatalities, possibly attributed to demographic shifts and improved urban infrastructure, persistent social vulnerability exists, particularly among rural populations engaged in labor-intensive agriculture with lower education levels. We estimate a risk map for lightning-related fatality risk in Mexico, where we identify high-risk regions along the Sierra Madre Occidental, the Pacific coast, and central and southeastern Mexico, marked by elevated lightning days and social vulnerability. The risk map integrates hazard and social vulnerability, capturing the distribution of fatality incidents, and it reveals that 82.1% of incidents occurred in municipalities categorized as “high” or “very high” risk. This result emphasizes the need to consider both physical hazard and social vulnerability for a comprehensive assessment of lightning risk. This study contributes to understanding lightning risk in Mexico, providing crucial insights at the municipality level for informing policymaking and targeting risk mitigation strategies. By highlighting the interrelation of hazard and social vulnerability, this research aligns with broader goals of enhancing local resilience and safety in the face of natural hazards, highlighting the ongoing need for disaster risk reduction efforts.
Significance Statement
This study provides a comprehensive evaluation of the risk of death by lightning at the municipality level in Mexico, considering the intricate interplay between hazard and social vulnerability. By analyzing both the physical hazard of lightning and the social vulnerability of exposed populations, the study provides a map estimating the risk level for each municipality. The risk map, capturing the interrelation of hazard and vulnerability, provides a powerful tool for policymakers and emergency responders. With 82.1% of lightning fatalities concentrated in municipalities with “high” and “very high” risk, this work underscores the need for comprehensive risk assessment strategies. This research contributes knowledge for informed decision-making, targeted interventions, and the ongoing pursuit of enhancing community resilience to lightning-related hazards.
Abstract
Lightning around the world poses a significant threat to life, infrastructure, and economic sectors. This study evaluates lightning risk at the municipal level in Mexico, recognizing the interplay of hazard and vulnerability in risk estimation. Despite declining lightning-related fatalities, possibly attributed to demographic shifts and improved urban infrastructure, persistent social vulnerability exists, particularly among rural populations engaged in labor-intensive agriculture with lower education levels. We estimate a risk map for lightning-related fatality risk in Mexico, where we identify high-risk regions along the Sierra Madre Occidental, the Pacific coast, and central and southeastern Mexico, marked by elevated lightning days and social vulnerability. The risk map integrates hazard and social vulnerability, capturing the distribution of fatality incidents, and it reveals that 82.1% of incidents occurred in municipalities categorized as “high” or “very high” risk. This result emphasizes the need to consider both physical hazard and social vulnerability for a comprehensive assessment of lightning risk. This study contributes to understanding lightning risk in Mexico, providing crucial insights at the municipality level for informing policymaking and targeting risk mitigation strategies. By highlighting the interrelation of hazard and social vulnerability, this research aligns with broader goals of enhancing local resilience and safety in the face of natural hazards, highlighting the ongoing need for disaster risk reduction efforts.
Significance Statement
This study provides a comprehensive evaluation of the risk of death by lightning at the municipality level in Mexico, considering the intricate interplay between hazard and social vulnerability. By analyzing both the physical hazard of lightning and the social vulnerability of exposed populations, the study provides a map estimating the risk level for each municipality. The risk map, capturing the interrelation of hazard and vulnerability, provides a powerful tool for policymakers and emergency responders. With 82.1% of lightning fatalities concentrated in municipalities with “high” and “very high” risk, this work underscores the need for comprehensive risk assessment strategies. This research contributes knowledge for informed decision-making, targeted interventions, and the ongoing pursuit of enhancing community resilience to lightning-related hazards.
Abstract
This study explores the correlation between weather and the perception of urban cleanliness across the 47 largest cities in Spain. Utilizing survey data conducted by the national Consumers and Users Organization (OCU) in 2015, 2019, and 2023 to assess cleanliness perceptions, we analyze potential associations with precipitation and temperature recorded by weather stations of the Spanish Meteorological Agency. Additionally, we consider computed values of the De Martonne aridity index. The OCU data reveal regional disparities in perceived cleanliness quality. Higher cleanliness scores are obtained in cities located in the northern and north-central regions of Spain, characterized by humid and superhumid climates according to the De Martonne index. Conversely, lower cleanliness ratings are given to cities in the southern and eastern regions of Spain, where a Mediterranean climate and lower aridity index values prevail. In conducting a statistical analysis on the perception of cleanliness and variables related to precipitation and temperature, the results of the chi-square and linear correlation tests found no strong statistical correlation, although a tendency is observed. Cities with higher annual precipitation and lower values of average annual temperature tend to receive better cleanliness ratings, while drier and warmer cities exhibit the worst values of perceived urban cleanliness. Furthermore, our findings indicate that the Gompertz model effectively captures a strong statistical correlation in the relationship between cleanliness perception and the De Martonne index: As aridity increases, cleanliness perception decreases. These results are relevant for the development of future cleaning methods and systems, particularly in light of the climate change scenarios that are anticipated in the Mediterranean region due to warmer and drier conditions and, consequently, an increase in aridity.
Abstract
This study explores the correlation between weather and the perception of urban cleanliness across the 47 largest cities in Spain. Utilizing survey data conducted by the national Consumers and Users Organization (OCU) in 2015, 2019, and 2023 to assess cleanliness perceptions, we analyze potential associations with precipitation and temperature recorded by weather stations of the Spanish Meteorological Agency. Additionally, we consider computed values of the De Martonne aridity index. The OCU data reveal regional disparities in perceived cleanliness quality. Higher cleanliness scores are obtained in cities located in the northern and north-central regions of Spain, characterized by humid and superhumid climates according to the De Martonne index. Conversely, lower cleanliness ratings are given to cities in the southern and eastern regions of Spain, where a Mediterranean climate and lower aridity index values prevail. In conducting a statistical analysis on the perception of cleanliness and variables related to precipitation and temperature, the results of the chi-square and linear correlation tests found no strong statistical correlation, although a tendency is observed. Cities with higher annual precipitation and lower values of average annual temperature tend to receive better cleanliness ratings, while drier and warmer cities exhibit the worst values of perceived urban cleanliness. Furthermore, our findings indicate that the Gompertz model effectively captures a strong statistical correlation in the relationship between cleanliness perception and the De Martonne index: As aridity increases, cleanliness perception decreases. These results are relevant for the development of future cleaning methods and systems, particularly in light of the climate change scenarios that are anticipated in the Mediterranean region due to warmer and drier conditions and, consequently, an increase in aridity.
Abstract
Rip currents are poorly understood by the public and thus a leading cause of weather-related fatalities in the United States. Individuals who speak languages other than English, such as Spanish-speaking communities, have been historically underserved by communication efforts for natural hazards and thus are at additional risk from rip currents. In response, the National Weather Service (NWS) has developed rip current outreach tools translated into Spanish in recent years, though their efficacy has not been systematically tested. We therefore surveyed members of the Spanish-speaking community in the New York City area to gain insights into how the NWS two-page rip current informational brochure is working and possible improvements to be made. The English version of the brochure was also tested, and the results from the two languages compared. Quantitative survey results indicate that while bot brochures are generally effective, several changes could be made to improve clarity, especially for Spanish speakers, who found more issues with the Spanish version. For example, the translation of the term rip current itself used by the NWS, “corrientes de resaca,” was determined to be confusing by some Spanish speakers, as were other pieces of text with complex scientific terms. Moreover, certain graphics contained in the brochure were difficult to understand for users in both languages. The results of this work can be used by the NWS and other agencies to improve their Spanish risk communication tools, and also as a guide when translating scientific information into other languages.
Abstract
Rip currents are poorly understood by the public and thus a leading cause of weather-related fatalities in the United States. Individuals who speak languages other than English, such as Spanish-speaking communities, have been historically underserved by communication efforts for natural hazards and thus are at additional risk from rip currents. In response, the National Weather Service (NWS) has developed rip current outreach tools translated into Spanish in recent years, though their efficacy has not been systematically tested. We therefore surveyed members of the Spanish-speaking community in the New York City area to gain insights into how the NWS two-page rip current informational brochure is working and possible improvements to be made. The English version of the brochure was also tested, and the results from the two languages compared. Quantitative survey results indicate that while bot brochures are generally effective, several changes could be made to improve clarity, especially for Spanish speakers, who found more issues with the Spanish version. For example, the translation of the term rip current itself used by the NWS, “corrientes de resaca,” was determined to be confusing by some Spanish speakers, as were other pieces of text with complex scientific terms. Moreover, certain graphics contained in the brochure were difficult to understand for users in both languages. The results of this work can be used by the NWS and other agencies to improve their Spanish risk communication tools, and also as a guide when translating scientific information into other languages.
Abstract
Extreme weather, including heat waves, poses a significant threat to ecosystems and human health. As global temperatures continue to rise, the frequency and severity of heat waves will increase. Because of this, communicating heat-related risks to the public is increasingly important. One commonly used communication tool is the Climate Shift Index (CSI), which establishes how much more likely an extreme weather event, such as a heat wave, has been made by climate change. To test the impact of the CSI on people’s understanding of the links between climate change and extreme weather, we conducted an experiment informing 3902 American adults that climate change made the July 2023 heat wave in the United States at least 5 times more likely. In addition to this standard CSI wording and two control messages, we also explored the effectiveness of reframing magnitude as a percentage and whether mechanistic and attribution explanations of the relationship between climate change and heat waves further increase understanding. All treatments increased the belief that climate change made the July 2023 heat wave more likely and is making heat waves in general more likely as well. Additionally, we found that expressing the magnitude as a percentage was more effective than the standard CSI framing. We also found that just talking about the heat wave, without mentioning climate change, was enough to change beliefs.
Abstract
Extreme weather, including heat waves, poses a significant threat to ecosystems and human health. As global temperatures continue to rise, the frequency and severity of heat waves will increase. Because of this, communicating heat-related risks to the public is increasingly important. One commonly used communication tool is the Climate Shift Index (CSI), which establishes how much more likely an extreme weather event, such as a heat wave, has been made by climate change. To test the impact of the CSI on people’s understanding of the links between climate change and extreme weather, we conducted an experiment informing 3902 American adults that climate change made the July 2023 heat wave in the United States at least 5 times more likely. In addition to this standard CSI wording and two control messages, we also explored the effectiveness of reframing magnitude as a percentage and whether mechanistic and attribution explanations of the relationship between climate change and heat waves further increase understanding. All treatments increased the belief that climate change made the July 2023 heat wave more likely and is making heat waves in general more likely as well. Additionally, we found that expressing the magnitude as a percentage was more effective than the standard CSI framing. We also found that just talking about the heat wave, without mentioning climate change, was enough to change beliefs.
Abstract
This paper analyzes findings from semistructured interviews and focus groups with 31 farmers in the Willamette Valley in which farmers were asked about their needs for climate data and about the usability of a range of outputs from the Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2), for their soil management practices. Findings indicate that climate and soils data generated from CESM and other Earth system models (ESMs), despite their coarse spatial scale resolutions, can inform farmers’ long-term decisions, but that the data would be more usable if the outputs were provided in a format that allowed farmers to choose the variables and thresholds relevant to their particular needs and if ESMs incorporated farmer practices including residue removal, cover cropping, and tillage levels into the model operations so that farmers could better understand the impacts of their decisions. Findings also suggest that although there is a significant gap in the spatial resolution at which these global ESMs generate data and the spatial resolution needed by farmers to make most decisions, farmers are adept at making scalar adjustments to apply coarse-resolution data to the specifics of their own farm’s microclimate. Thus, our findings suggest that, to support agricultural decision-making, development priorities for ESMs should include developing better representations of agricultural management practices within the models and creating interactive data dashboards or platforms.
Abstract
This paper analyzes findings from semistructured interviews and focus groups with 31 farmers in the Willamette Valley in which farmers were asked about their needs for climate data and about the usability of a range of outputs from the Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2), for their soil management practices. Findings indicate that climate and soils data generated from CESM and other Earth system models (ESMs), despite their coarse spatial scale resolutions, can inform farmers’ long-term decisions, but that the data would be more usable if the outputs were provided in a format that allowed farmers to choose the variables and thresholds relevant to their particular needs and if ESMs incorporated farmer practices including residue removal, cover cropping, and tillage levels into the model operations so that farmers could better understand the impacts of their decisions. Findings also suggest that although there is a significant gap in the spatial resolution at which these global ESMs generate data and the spatial resolution needed by farmers to make most decisions, farmers are adept at making scalar adjustments to apply coarse-resolution data to the specifics of their own farm’s microclimate. Thus, our findings suggest that, to support agricultural decision-making, development priorities for ESMs should include developing better representations of agricultural management practices within the models and creating interactive data dashboards or platforms.
Abstract
A violent tornado occurred in Czechia on 24 June 2021, killing six and causing at least 576 injuries. There were more indirect than direct injuries. The tornado was rated 4 on the international Fujita scale (IF4) using a draft version of the IF scale. This was the first violent tornado in Czechia and one of only 17 violent, i.e., (I)F4 or higher, tornadoes that occurred in Europe since 1950. The tornado reached a width of 3.5 km, the widest on record in Europe. The case presents an important opportunity to investigate the impacts of such a strong tornado in the area, where they are rare, no tornado warnings are issued, and where the building standards are different from the typically investigated tornadoes in the United States. We discuss challenges in organizing the damage survey, which took 3 days and involved meteorologists from three countries. A wind damage survey guide to aid mitigating these was written by the European Severe Storms Laboratory and initiated the development of a wind damage surveying app. The damage survey showed that most of the inhabited buildings built using heavy masonry and rigid ceilings did not collapse in IF2/3 winds, but only with IF4 winds. Eyewitness reports collected after the tornado show that many people were not aware of the risk associated with the tornado. Eventually, most people tried to shelter in the most secure part of the house, but it was often too late. This case highlights the need for better communication of tornado risk to the public in Europe.
Abstract
A violent tornado occurred in Czechia on 24 June 2021, killing six and causing at least 576 injuries. There were more indirect than direct injuries. The tornado was rated 4 on the international Fujita scale (IF4) using a draft version of the IF scale. This was the first violent tornado in Czechia and one of only 17 violent, i.e., (I)F4 or higher, tornadoes that occurred in Europe since 1950. The tornado reached a width of 3.5 km, the widest on record in Europe. The case presents an important opportunity to investigate the impacts of such a strong tornado in the area, where they are rare, no tornado warnings are issued, and where the building standards are different from the typically investigated tornadoes in the United States. We discuss challenges in organizing the damage survey, which took 3 days and involved meteorologists from three countries. A wind damage survey guide to aid mitigating these was written by the European Severe Storms Laboratory and initiated the development of a wind damage surveying app. The damage survey showed that most of the inhabited buildings built using heavy masonry and rigid ceilings did not collapse in IF2/3 winds, but only with IF4 winds. Eyewitness reports collected after the tornado show that many people were not aware of the risk associated with the tornado. Eventually, most people tried to shelter in the most secure part of the house, but it was often too late. This case highlights the need for better communication of tornado risk to the public in Europe.
Abstract
Climate and weather-related disasters in California illustrate the need for immediate climate change action—both mitigation to reduce impacts and adaptation to protect our communities, relatives, and the ecosystems we depend upon. Indigenous frontline communities face even greater threats from climate impacts due to historical and political legacies of environmental injustice. Climate change adaptation actions have proven challenging to implement as communities struggle to access necessary climate data at appropriate scales, identify effective strategies that address community priorities, and obtain resources to act at a whole-community level. In this paper, we present three examples of Indigenous communities in California that have used a climate justice approach to climate change adaptation. These communities are drawing upon community knowledge and expertise to address the challenges of adaptation planning and taking actions that center community priorities. The three cases address emergency preparation and response, cultural burning and fire management, and community organizing and social cohesion. Across these spheres, they illustrate the ways in which a community-based and climate justice-focused approach to adaptation can be effective in addressing current threats while also addressing the legacy of imposed, socially constructed vulnerability and environmental injustices. Because we recognize the need for multiple knowledges and skills in adaptation actions, we include recommendations that have emerged based on what has been learned through these long-standing and engaged participatory research collaborations for climate scientists who wish to contribute to climate justice-focused adaptation efforts by using scientific data to support—not supplant—community efforts, target funding toward genuine community engagement and adaptation actions, and become aware of the historical and political legacies that created the climate vulnerabilities and injustices evident today.
Abstract
Climate and weather-related disasters in California illustrate the need for immediate climate change action—both mitigation to reduce impacts and adaptation to protect our communities, relatives, and the ecosystems we depend upon. Indigenous frontline communities face even greater threats from climate impacts due to historical and political legacies of environmental injustice. Climate change adaptation actions have proven challenging to implement as communities struggle to access necessary climate data at appropriate scales, identify effective strategies that address community priorities, and obtain resources to act at a whole-community level. In this paper, we present three examples of Indigenous communities in California that have used a climate justice approach to climate change adaptation. These communities are drawing upon community knowledge and expertise to address the challenges of adaptation planning and taking actions that center community priorities. The three cases address emergency preparation and response, cultural burning and fire management, and community organizing and social cohesion. Across these spheres, they illustrate the ways in which a community-based and climate justice-focused approach to adaptation can be effective in addressing current threats while also addressing the legacy of imposed, socially constructed vulnerability and environmental injustices. Because we recognize the need for multiple knowledges and skills in adaptation actions, we include recommendations that have emerged based on what has been learned through these long-standing and engaged participatory research collaborations for climate scientists who wish to contribute to climate justice-focused adaptation efforts by using scientific data to support—not supplant—community efforts, target funding toward genuine community engagement and adaptation actions, and become aware of the historical and political legacies that created the climate vulnerabilities and injustices evident today.
Abstract
In 2021, the energy sector was put at risk by extreme weather in many different ways: North America and Spain suffered heavy winter storms that led to the collapse of the electricity network; California specifically experienced heavy droughts and heat-wave conditions, causing the operations of hydropower stations to halt; floods caused substantial damage to energy infrastructure in central Europe, Australia, and China throughout the year, and unusual wind drought conditions decreased wind power production in the United Kingdom by almost 40% during summer. The total economic impacts of these extreme weather events are estimated at billions of U.S. dollars. Here we review and assess in some detail the main extreme weather events that impacted the energy sector in 2021 worldwide, discussing some of the most relevant case studies and the meteorological conditions that led to them. We provide a perspective on their impacts on electricity generation, transmission, and consumption, and summarize estimations of economic losses.
Abstract
In 2021, the energy sector was put at risk by extreme weather in many different ways: North America and Spain suffered heavy winter storms that led to the collapse of the electricity network; California specifically experienced heavy droughts and heat-wave conditions, causing the operations of hydropower stations to halt; floods caused substantial damage to energy infrastructure in central Europe, Australia, and China throughout the year, and unusual wind drought conditions decreased wind power production in the United Kingdom by almost 40% during summer. The total economic impacts of these extreme weather events are estimated at billions of U.S. dollars. Here we review and assess in some detail the main extreme weather events that impacted the energy sector in 2021 worldwide, discussing some of the most relevant case studies and the meteorological conditions that led to them. We provide a perspective on their impacts on electricity generation, transmission, and consumption, and summarize estimations of economic losses.
Abstract
Although many people believe their pain fluctuates with weather conditions, both weather and pain may be associated with time spent outside. For example, pleasant weather may mean that people spend more time outside doing physical activity and are exposed to the weather, leading to more (or less) pain, and poor weather or severe pain may keep people inside, sedentary, and not exposed to the weather. We conducted a smartphone study where participants with chronic pain reported daily pain severity, as well as time spent outside. We address the relationship between four weather variables (temperature, dewpoint temperature, pressure, and wind speed) and pain by proposing a three-step approach to untangle their effects: (i) propose a set of plausible directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) that account for potential roles of time spent outside (e.g., collider, effect modifier, mediator); (ii) analyze the compatibility of the observed data with the assumed model; and (iii) identify the most plausible model by combining evidence from the observed data and domain-specific knowledge. We found that the data do not support time spent outside as a collider or mediator of the relationship between weather variables and pain. On the other hand, time spent outside modifies the effect between temperature and pain, as well as wind speed and pain, with the effect being absent on days that participants spent inside and present if they spent some or all of the day outside. Our results show the utility of using directed acyclic graphs for studying causal inference.
Significance Statement
Three-quarters of people living with chronic pain believe that weather influences their pain. However, people staying inside would not be exposed to the weather outside, and good weather may mean that people are more active outside, leading to more or less pain. To obtain data to calculate how the amount of time spent outside affects the weather–pain relationship, we conducted a 15-month smartphone study collecting daily pain reports and nearby weather for nearly 5000 participants in the United Kingdom. We found that time spent outside modifies the relationship between temperature/wind speed and pain, showing the importance of accounting for other factors when investigating the association between weather and chronic pain, which could guide future research into pain mitigation and management.
Abstract
Although many people believe their pain fluctuates with weather conditions, both weather and pain may be associated with time spent outside. For example, pleasant weather may mean that people spend more time outside doing physical activity and are exposed to the weather, leading to more (or less) pain, and poor weather or severe pain may keep people inside, sedentary, and not exposed to the weather. We conducted a smartphone study where participants with chronic pain reported daily pain severity, as well as time spent outside. We address the relationship between four weather variables (temperature, dewpoint temperature, pressure, and wind speed) and pain by proposing a three-step approach to untangle their effects: (i) propose a set of plausible directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) that account for potential roles of time spent outside (e.g., collider, effect modifier, mediator); (ii) analyze the compatibility of the observed data with the assumed model; and (iii) identify the most plausible model by combining evidence from the observed data and domain-specific knowledge. We found that the data do not support time spent outside as a collider or mediator of the relationship between weather variables and pain. On the other hand, time spent outside modifies the effect between temperature and pain, as well as wind speed and pain, with the effect being absent on days that participants spent inside and present if they spent some or all of the day outside. Our results show the utility of using directed acyclic graphs for studying causal inference.
Significance Statement
Three-quarters of people living with chronic pain believe that weather influences their pain. However, people staying inside would not be exposed to the weather outside, and good weather may mean that people are more active outside, leading to more or less pain. To obtain data to calculate how the amount of time spent outside affects the weather–pain relationship, we conducted a 15-month smartphone study collecting daily pain reports and nearby weather for nearly 5000 participants in the United Kingdom. We found that time spent outside modifies the relationship between temperature/wind speed and pain, showing the importance of accounting for other factors when investigating the association between weather and chronic pain, which could guide future research into pain mitigation and management.
