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Aaron Johnson and Xuguang Wang

Abstract

A real-time GSI-based and ensemble-based data assimilation (DA) and forecast system was implemented at the University of Oklahoma during the 2015 Plains Elevated Convection at Night (PECAN) experiment. Extensive experiments on the configuration of the cycled DA and on both the DA and forecast physics ensembles were conducted using retrospective cases to optimize the system design for nocturnal convection. The impacts of radar DA between 1200 and 1300 UTC, as well as the frequency and number of DA cycles and the DA physics configuration, extend through the following night. Ten-minute cycling of radar DA leads to more skillful forecasts than both more and less frequent cycling. The Thompson microphysics scheme for DA better analyzes the effects of morning convection on environmental moisture than WSM6, which improves the convection forecast the following night. A multi-PBL configuration during DA leads to less skillful short-term forecasts than even a relatively poorly performing single-PBL scheme. Deterministic and ensemble forecast physics configurations are also evaluated. Thompson microphysics and the Mellor–Yamada–Nakanishi–Niino (MYNN) PBL provide the most skillful nocturnal precipitation forecasts. A well thought out multiphysics configuration is shown to provide advantages over evenly distributing three of the best-performing microphysics and PBL schemes or a fixed MYNN/Thompson ensemble. This is shown using objective and subjective verification of precipitation and nonprecipitation variables, including convective initiation. Predictions of the low-level jet are sensitive to the PBL scheme, with the best scheme being variable and time dependent. These results guided the implementation and verification of a real-time ensemble DA and forecast system for PECAN.

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Tammy M. Weckwerth, Kristy J. Weber, David D. Turner, and Scott M. Spuler

Abstract

A water vapor micropulse differential absorption lidar (DIAL) instrument was developed collaboratively by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and Montana State University (MSU). This innovative, eye-safe, low-power, diode-laser-based system has demonstrated the ability to obtain unattended continuous observations in both day and night. Data comparisons with well-established water vapor observing systems, including radiosondes, Atmospheric Emitted Radiance Interferometers (AERIs), microwave radiometer profilers (MWRPs), and ground-based global positioning system (GPS) receivers, show excellent agreement. The Pearson’s correlation coefficient for the DIAL and radiosondes is consistently greater than 0.6 from 300 m up to 4.5 km AGL at night and up to 3.5 km AGL during the day. The Pearson’s correlation coefficient for the DIAL and AERI is greater than 0.6 from 300 m up to 2.25 km at night and from 300 m up to 2.0 km during the day. Further comparison with the continuously operating GPS instrumentation illustrates consistent temporal trends when integrating the DIAL measurements up to 6 km AGL.

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Thomas R. Parish

Abstract

Detailed ground-based and airborne measurements were conducted of the summertime Great Plains low-level jet (LLJ) in central Kansas during the Plains Elevated Convection at Night (PECAN) campaign. Airborne measurements using the University of Wyoming King Air were made to document the vertical wind profile and the forcing of the jet during the nighttime hours on 3 June 2015. Two flights were conducted that document the evolution of the LLJ from sunset to dawn. Each flight included a series of vertical sawtooth and isobaric legs along a fixed track at 38.7°N between longitudes 98.9° and 100°W.

Comparison of the 3 June 2015 LLJ was made with a composite LLJ case obtained from gridded output from the North American Mesoscale Forecast System for June and July of 2008 and 2009. Forcing of the LLJ was detected using cross sections of D values that allow measurement of the vertical profile of the horizontal pressure gradient force and the thermal wind. Combined with observations of the actual wind, ageostrophic components normal to the flight track can be detected. Observations show that the 3 June 2015 LLJ displayed classic features of the LLJ, including an inertial oscillation of the ageostrophic wind. Oscillations in the geostrophic wind as a result of diurnal heating and cooling of the sloping terrain are not responsible for the nocturnal wind maximum. Net daytime heating of the sloping Great Plains, however, is responsible for the development of a strong background geostrophic wind that is critical to formation of the LLJ.

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