Abstract
An Ensemble Tangent Linear Model (ETLM) is applied to a cloud physics scheme used in the Navy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM). The ensemble is created using 3-hour forecasts from the Ensemble Transform method used in the NAVGEM data assimilation system. The model states are saved before and after applying the cloud physics parameterization (which includes condensation/evaporation of cloud ice and cloud liquid water and stratiform precipitation), and these states are used to construct linearized model tendencies for temperature, specific humidity, cloud liquid water, and cloud ice water. We examine separately the application of the ETLM to cloud physics components that are explicitly local versus non-local. For the local components, an ETLM is built using a single grid point. ETLMs from 50 to 1000 members are tested, and skillful forecasts can be obtained for both local and non-local physics even with a moderate sized ensemble (e.g., 100 members). At 1000 members, the globally-averaged forecast error reductions (relative to persistence errors) are ∼40% for temperature, water vapor, and cloud liquid water and ∼30% for cloud ice. When initial perturbations are reduced by a factor of 0.1, the error reductions increase to ∼65% for all variables. For physics with non-local components (stratiform precipitation) the covariances that comprise the ETLM are localized with a Schur product matrix using a Gaussian localization shape with tunable length. The optimal lengths increased with ensemble size from ∼2-3 km for 50 members to ∼10 km for 1000 members. ETLMs for “all cloud physics” are also constructed and evaluated.
Abstract
An Ensemble Tangent Linear Model (ETLM) is applied to a cloud physics scheme used in the Navy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM). The ensemble is created using 3-hour forecasts from the Ensemble Transform method used in the NAVGEM data assimilation system. The model states are saved before and after applying the cloud physics parameterization (which includes condensation/evaporation of cloud ice and cloud liquid water and stratiform precipitation), and these states are used to construct linearized model tendencies for temperature, specific humidity, cloud liquid water, and cloud ice water. We examine separately the application of the ETLM to cloud physics components that are explicitly local versus non-local. For the local components, an ETLM is built using a single grid point. ETLMs from 50 to 1000 members are tested, and skillful forecasts can be obtained for both local and non-local physics even with a moderate sized ensemble (e.g., 100 members). At 1000 members, the globally-averaged forecast error reductions (relative to persistence errors) are ∼40% for temperature, water vapor, and cloud liquid water and ∼30% for cloud ice. When initial perturbations are reduced by a factor of 0.1, the error reductions increase to ∼65% for all variables. For physics with non-local components (stratiform precipitation) the covariances that comprise the ETLM are localized with a Schur product matrix using a Gaussian localization shape with tunable length. The optimal lengths increased with ensemble size from ∼2-3 km for 50 members to ∼10 km for 1000 members. ETLMs for “all cloud physics” are also constructed and evaluated.
Abstract
We analyzed 14 days of observations from sonic anemometry and high-resolution fiber optic distributed sensing collected in the stable polar boundary layer (SBL). The study sought to evaluate if and under which conditions the sensible heat flux is related to the temperature gradient. Machine learning methods were employed to identify drivers of and model heat fluxes. We found the recently proposed coupling metric Ω defined as the ratio of the buoyancy length scale and measurement height to delineate physically meaningful transport regimes. The regime transition marks the point where static stability in addition to the vertical turbulence strength control the heat transport, which is rather gradual than abrupt. The maximum downward heat flux is reached when one third of turbulent eddies exceed the opposing buoyancy forces in the SBL. We found evidence that even for large Ω a substantial fraction of the turbulent transport is non-equilibrium. The non-dimensional temperature gradient is better explained by variations in Ω than ζ = zL −1 from Monin-Obukhov Similarity theory. Its continuous organization with Ω across stabilities suggest that the vertical heat transport always remains coupled to the surface, but its efficiency and the resulting flux vary. 43% of the total enthalpy is exchanged during conditions of limited transport efficiency in the very SBL despite the small flux magnitude of ≤ 7 W m−2, which underlines the importance of quantifying the weak surface exchange for polar regions. When predicting sensible heat fluxes using mean quantities from weather stations, the net longwave radiative forcing and the horizontal wind speed are the most important predictors representing stratification and bulk shear.
Abstract
We analyzed 14 days of observations from sonic anemometry and high-resolution fiber optic distributed sensing collected in the stable polar boundary layer (SBL). The study sought to evaluate if and under which conditions the sensible heat flux is related to the temperature gradient. Machine learning methods were employed to identify drivers of and model heat fluxes. We found the recently proposed coupling metric Ω defined as the ratio of the buoyancy length scale and measurement height to delineate physically meaningful transport regimes. The regime transition marks the point where static stability in addition to the vertical turbulence strength control the heat transport, which is rather gradual than abrupt. The maximum downward heat flux is reached when one third of turbulent eddies exceed the opposing buoyancy forces in the SBL. We found evidence that even for large Ω a substantial fraction of the turbulent transport is non-equilibrium. The non-dimensional temperature gradient is better explained by variations in Ω than ζ = zL −1 from Monin-Obukhov Similarity theory. Its continuous organization with Ω across stabilities suggest that the vertical heat transport always remains coupled to the surface, but its efficiency and the resulting flux vary. 43% of the total enthalpy is exchanged during conditions of limited transport efficiency in the very SBL despite the small flux magnitude of ≤ 7 W m−2, which underlines the importance of quantifying the weak surface exchange for polar regions. When predicting sensible heat fluxes using mean quantities from weather stations, the net longwave radiative forcing and the horizontal wind speed are the most important predictors representing stratification and bulk shear.
Abstract
Multi-model ensemble forecasts have gained widespread use over the past decade. A yet unresolved issue is whether forecast skill benefits from the use of prior skill from each model in providing a weighted combination. Here we use the available seasonal ensemble forecasts of six models from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) to study various aspects of prior skill-based weighting schemes and explore ways to merge multi-model forecasts. First, we post-process each NMME model through quantile mapping and a simple spread error adjustment. Then, using an equal weighted combination as the baseline forecast, we test merging the models together through skill-based weights by varying the prior skill metric and varying how the metrics are aggregated across the different subbasins and time of year. Results confirm prior work that the combined forecasts do outperform individual models. When evaluating prior skill, equal weighting generally performed as well or slightly better than all weighting schemes tried. The skill of the weighting scheme was not found to be strongly dependent on prior metric but did improve when aggregating all forecasted months and subbasins together to provide one overall weight to each model. Also, we found that including an offset to the prior metric that nudged the weights closer to equal weighting improves skill especially at longer leads where individual model skill is low. Results also show that the weighting schemes performed better than regression-based techniques including multiple linear regression and random forest.
Abstract
Multi-model ensemble forecasts have gained widespread use over the past decade. A yet unresolved issue is whether forecast skill benefits from the use of prior skill from each model in providing a weighted combination. Here we use the available seasonal ensemble forecasts of six models from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) to study various aspects of prior skill-based weighting schemes and explore ways to merge multi-model forecasts. First, we post-process each NMME model through quantile mapping and a simple spread error adjustment. Then, using an equal weighted combination as the baseline forecast, we test merging the models together through skill-based weights by varying the prior skill metric and varying how the metrics are aggregated across the different subbasins and time of year. Results confirm prior work that the combined forecasts do outperform individual models. When evaluating prior skill, equal weighting generally performed as well or slightly better than all weighting schemes tried. The skill of the weighting scheme was not found to be strongly dependent on prior metric but did improve when aggregating all forecasted months and subbasins together to provide one overall weight to each model. Also, we found that including an offset to the prior metric that nudged the weights closer to equal weighting improves skill especially at longer leads where individual model skill is low. Results also show that the weighting schemes performed better than regression-based techniques including multiple linear regression and random forest.
Abstract
Improving Land Surface Temperature (LST) modeling is vital for mitigating climate change effects on various ecosystems and marine habitats such as on important sea turtle habitats. Over the past decade, extreme temperatures have likely significantly affected nesting sea turtle habitats in the Arabian Gulf, with predominantly female hatchlings creating an imbalance in the sex ratio. Such shifts have profound implications for these habitats' long-term survival and conservation management. This study leverages statistical machine learning models to measure ongoing temporal variations in LST. We break down the LST time series into trend, seasonal, and noise components using classical decomposition methods like X11, SEATS, and the Seasonal and Trend decomposition using Loess (STL) approach. The long-term trends in LST data are driven by climate change rather than seasonal fluctuations. We employed Neural Network Auto Regression (NNAR), BaggedETS, Exponential Smoothing models, and STL method to project future LST values. We also explored advanced forecasting models like Dynamic Harmonic Regression, TBATS, and SARIMA for comparative performance analysis. Extended warm periods were identified for Abu Ali Island between 2017 and 2018 through several decomposition methods, likely linked to the 2015-2016 El Niño event. We also conducted a Marine Heat Wave (MHW) analysis from 2010-2020, establishing a pronounced impact of the 2015-2016 El Niño on the Arabian Gulf. In nesting beach environments with high LST, marine heatwaves could have a significant impact on sea turtle populations without human intervention such as artificially cooling the nest temperature. SARIMA model showed higher forecasting precision for in-situ weather data while NNAR model demonstrated superior performance with remotely sensed data.
Abstract
Improving Land Surface Temperature (LST) modeling is vital for mitigating climate change effects on various ecosystems and marine habitats such as on important sea turtle habitats. Over the past decade, extreme temperatures have likely significantly affected nesting sea turtle habitats in the Arabian Gulf, with predominantly female hatchlings creating an imbalance in the sex ratio. Such shifts have profound implications for these habitats' long-term survival and conservation management. This study leverages statistical machine learning models to measure ongoing temporal variations in LST. We break down the LST time series into trend, seasonal, and noise components using classical decomposition methods like X11, SEATS, and the Seasonal and Trend decomposition using Loess (STL) approach. The long-term trends in LST data are driven by climate change rather than seasonal fluctuations. We employed Neural Network Auto Regression (NNAR), BaggedETS, Exponential Smoothing models, and STL method to project future LST values. We also explored advanced forecasting models like Dynamic Harmonic Regression, TBATS, and SARIMA for comparative performance analysis. Extended warm periods were identified for Abu Ali Island between 2017 and 2018 through several decomposition methods, likely linked to the 2015-2016 El Niño event. We also conducted a Marine Heat Wave (MHW) analysis from 2010-2020, establishing a pronounced impact of the 2015-2016 El Niño on the Arabian Gulf. In nesting beach environments with high LST, marine heatwaves could have a significant impact on sea turtle populations without human intervention such as artificially cooling the nest temperature. SARIMA model showed higher forecasting precision for in-situ weather data while NNAR model demonstrated superior performance with remotely sensed data.
Abstract
The paper aims at investigating the effectiveness of estimating vertical profiles of air temperature and PM10 concentrations in Alpine valleys through ground stations positioned at different altitudes on one valley sidewall (i.e. pseudo-vertical profiles). Two case studies in the Italian Alps are investigated: Chiese Valley in Trentino province and Camonica Valley in Lombardy region. Vertical profiles of temperature and PM10 concentrations were derived from airborne measurements at the center of the two valleys by means of low-cost sensors installed on a drone during summer 2019 and a tethered balloon during winter 2020. At the same time, five stations, equipped with the same kind of low-cost sensors, simultaneously monitored the same variables on one mountain slope. Comparisons between pseudo-profiles and airborne soundings revealed that ground stations well approximated temperature and PM10 soundings during the night and early morning, while temperatures along the slopes were higher than in the center of the valley during daytime, due to solar radiative heating, with larger differences in summer than in winter. On the contrary, some episodes with PM10 concentrations slightly higher in the valley center than on the slope were recorded, due to transport events and upslope winds. Nonetheless, the pseudo-profiles based on slope ground measurements faithfully reproduced the vertical gradients of both air temperature and PM10 if compared to those assessed from the soundings performed at the center of the two valleys. Results show that pseudo-vertical profiles can be a reliable and inexpensive method for continuous monitoring of vertical air temperature and PM10 distribution in mountain valleys.
Abstract
The paper aims at investigating the effectiveness of estimating vertical profiles of air temperature and PM10 concentrations in Alpine valleys through ground stations positioned at different altitudes on one valley sidewall (i.e. pseudo-vertical profiles). Two case studies in the Italian Alps are investigated: Chiese Valley in Trentino province and Camonica Valley in Lombardy region. Vertical profiles of temperature and PM10 concentrations were derived from airborne measurements at the center of the two valleys by means of low-cost sensors installed on a drone during summer 2019 and a tethered balloon during winter 2020. At the same time, five stations, equipped with the same kind of low-cost sensors, simultaneously monitored the same variables on one mountain slope. Comparisons between pseudo-profiles and airborne soundings revealed that ground stations well approximated temperature and PM10 soundings during the night and early morning, while temperatures along the slopes were higher than in the center of the valley during daytime, due to solar radiative heating, with larger differences in summer than in winter. On the contrary, some episodes with PM10 concentrations slightly higher in the valley center than on the slope were recorded, due to transport events and upslope winds. Nonetheless, the pseudo-profiles based on slope ground measurements faithfully reproduced the vertical gradients of both air temperature and PM10 if compared to those assessed from the soundings performed at the center of the two valleys. Results show that pseudo-vertical profiles can be a reliable and inexpensive method for continuous monitoring of vertical air temperature and PM10 distribution in mountain valleys.
Abstract
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is an important component of the global climate, known to be a tipping element, as it could collapse under global warming. The main objective of this study is to compute the probability that the AMOC collapses within a specified time window, using a rare-event algorithm called Trajectory-Adaptive Multilevel Splitting (TAMS). However, the efficiency and accuracy of TAMS depend on the choice of the score function. Although the definition of the optimal score function, called “committor function” is known, it is impossible in general to compute it a priori. Here, we combine TAMS with a Next-Generation Reservoir Computing technique that estimates the committor function from the data generated by the rare-event algorithm. We test this technique in a stochastic box model of the AMOC for which two types of transition exist, the so-called F(ast)-transitions and S(low)-transitions. Results for the F-transtions compare favorably with those in the literature where a physically-informed score function was used. We show that coupling a rare-event algorithm with machine learning allows for a correct estimation of transition probabilities, transition times, and even transition paths for a wide range of model parameters. We then extend these results to the more difficult problem of S-transitions in the same model. In both cases of F-transitions and S-transitions, we also show how the Next-Generation Reservoir Computing technique can be interpreted to retrieve an analytical estimate of the committor function.
Abstract
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is an important component of the global climate, known to be a tipping element, as it could collapse under global warming. The main objective of this study is to compute the probability that the AMOC collapses within a specified time window, using a rare-event algorithm called Trajectory-Adaptive Multilevel Splitting (TAMS). However, the efficiency and accuracy of TAMS depend on the choice of the score function. Although the definition of the optimal score function, called “committor function” is known, it is impossible in general to compute it a priori. Here, we combine TAMS with a Next-Generation Reservoir Computing technique that estimates the committor function from the data generated by the rare-event algorithm. We test this technique in a stochastic box model of the AMOC for which two types of transition exist, the so-called F(ast)-transitions and S(low)-transitions. Results for the F-transtions compare favorably with those in the literature where a physically-informed score function was used. We show that coupling a rare-event algorithm with machine learning allows for a correct estimation of transition probabilities, transition times, and even transition paths for a wide range of model parameters. We then extend these results to the more difficult problem of S-transitions in the same model. In both cases of F-transitions and S-transitions, we also show how the Next-Generation Reservoir Computing technique can be interpreted to retrieve an analytical estimate of the committor function.
Abstract
A series of idealized numerical simulations is used to examine the generation of mode-one superinertial coastally trapped waves (CTWs). In the first set of simulations, CTWs are resonantly generated when freely propagating mode-one internal tides are incident on the coast such that the angle of incidence of the internal wave causes the projected wavenumber of the tide on the coast to satisfy a triad relationship with the wavenumbers of the bathymetry and the CTW. In the second set of simulations, CTWs are generated by the interaction of the barotropic tide with topography that has the same scales as the CTW. Under resonant conditions, superinertial coastally trapped waves are a leading order coastal process, with alongshore current magnitudes that can be larger than the barotropic or internal tides from which they are generated.
Abstract
A series of idealized numerical simulations is used to examine the generation of mode-one superinertial coastally trapped waves (CTWs). In the first set of simulations, CTWs are resonantly generated when freely propagating mode-one internal tides are incident on the coast such that the angle of incidence of the internal wave causes the projected wavenumber of the tide on the coast to satisfy a triad relationship with the wavenumbers of the bathymetry and the CTW. In the second set of simulations, CTWs are generated by the interaction of the barotropic tide with topography that has the same scales as the CTW. Under resonant conditions, superinertial coastally trapped waves are a leading order coastal process, with alongshore current magnitudes that can be larger than the barotropic or internal tides from which they are generated.
Abstract
The influence of biomass burning (BB) aerosols arising from wildfires and agricultural fires on the transient coupled evolution of ENSO is explored in CESM2. For both El Niño and La Niña, two 20-member ensembles are generated from initial states that are predisposed to evolve into ENSO events. For each ENSO phase, one ensemble is forced with the observed BB emissions during satellite-era ENSO events while the other is forced with a climatological annual cycle, with the responses to anomalous BB emissions estimated from inter-ensemble differences.
It is found that the regional responses to anomalous BB emissions occur mainly during boreal fall, which is also the time of the climatological seasonal maximum in emissions. Transient responses are identified in precipitation, clouds, and radiation in both the tropics and extratropics. At the onset of El Niño, these include an increase precipitation in the northern branch of the ITCZ and an enhancement of cloud albedo and amount across the Maritime Continent and eastern subtropical Pacific Ocean. Additional responses are identified through the course of El Niño and successive La Niña events, the net effect of which is to strengthen SST anomalies in the eastern Pacific Ocean during El Niño and warm the tropical Pacific Ocean during La Niña. These responses improve simulation of ENSO power, diversity, and asymmetry in CESM2.
Abstract
The influence of biomass burning (BB) aerosols arising from wildfires and agricultural fires on the transient coupled evolution of ENSO is explored in CESM2. For both El Niño and La Niña, two 20-member ensembles are generated from initial states that are predisposed to evolve into ENSO events. For each ENSO phase, one ensemble is forced with the observed BB emissions during satellite-era ENSO events while the other is forced with a climatological annual cycle, with the responses to anomalous BB emissions estimated from inter-ensemble differences.
It is found that the regional responses to anomalous BB emissions occur mainly during boreal fall, which is also the time of the climatological seasonal maximum in emissions. Transient responses are identified in precipitation, clouds, and radiation in both the tropics and extratropics. At the onset of El Niño, these include an increase precipitation in the northern branch of the ITCZ and an enhancement of cloud albedo and amount across the Maritime Continent and eastern subtropical Pacific Ocean. Additional responses are identified through the course of El Niño and successive La Niña events, the net effect of which is to strengthen SST anomalies in the eastern Pacific Ocean during El Niño and warm the tropical Pacific Ocean during La Niña. These responses improve simulation of ENSO power, diversity, and asymmetry in CESM2.
Abstract
The joint Taiwan-Area Heavy Rain Observation and Prediction Experiment (TAHOPE)/Prediction of Rainfall Extremes Campaign In the Pacific (PRECIP) field campaign between Taiwan and the United States took place from late May to mid-August in 2022. The field campaign aimed to understand the dynamics, thermodynamics, and predictability of heavy rainfall events in the Taiwan area. This study investigated the mechanisms of a heavy rainfall event that occurred on 6–7 June during the intensive observation period-3 (IOP3) of the field campaign. Heavy rainfall occurs on Taiwan’s western coast when a Meiyu front hovers in northern Taiwan. A multiscale radar ensemble data assimilation system based on the successive covariance localization (SCL) method is used to derive a high-resolution analysis for forecasts. Two numerical experiments are conducted with the use of convective-scale (RDA) or multiscale (MRDA) corrections in the assimilation of the radial velocity from operational radars at Chigu and Wufen, and the additional S-Pol radar deployed at Hsinchu during the field campaign. Compared with RDA, MRDA results in large-area wind corrections, which help reshape and relocate a low-level mesoscale vortex, a key element of this heavy rainfall event, offshore of western central Taiwan and enhances the front intensity offshore of northwestern Taiwan. Consequently, MRDA improves the 6-h heavy rainfall prediction over the coast of western Taiwan and better represents the elongated rainband in northern Taiwan during the 3- to 6-h forecast. Sensitivity experiments demonstrate the importance of assimilating winds from Chigu and S-Pol radar in establishing low-level mesoscale vortex and convergence zones.
Abstract
The joint Taiwan-Area Heavy Rain Observation and Prediction Experiment (TAHOPE)/Prediction of Rainfall Extremes Campaign In the Pacific (PRECIP) field campaign between Taiwan and the United States took place from late May to mid-August in 2022. The field campaign aimed to understand the dynamics, thermodynamics, and predictability of heavy rainfall events in the Taiwan area. This study investigated the mechanisms of a heavy rainfall event that occurred on 6–7 June during the intensive observation period-3 (IOP3) of the field campaign. Heavy rainfall occurs on Taiwan’s western coast when a Meiyu front hovers in northern Taiwan. A multiscale radar ensemble data assimilation system based on the successive covariance localization (SCL) method is used to derive a high-resolution analysis for forecasts. Two numerical experiments are conducted with the use of convective-scale (RDA) or multiscale (MRDA) corrections in the assimilation of the radial velocity from operational radars at Chigu and Wufen, and the additional S-Pol radar deployed at Hsinchu during the field campaign. Compared with RDA, MRDA results in large-area wind corrections, which help reshape and relocate a low-level mesoscale vortex, a key element of this heavy rainfall event, offshore of western central Taiwan and enhances the front intensity offshore of northwestern Taiwan. Consequently, MRDA improves the 6-h heavy rainfall prediction over the coast of western Taiwan and better represents the elongated rainband in northern Taiwan during the 3- to 6-h forecast. Sensitivity experiments demonstrate the importance of assimilating winds from Chigu and S-Pol radar in establishing low-level mesoscale vortex and convergence zones.
