Abstract
The East Mediterranean Sea (EMS) circulation has previously been characterized as dominated by gyres, mesoscale eddies, and disjoint boundary currents. We develop nested high-resolution numerical simulations in the EMS to examine the circulation variability with an emphasis on the yet unexplored regional submesoscale currents. Rather than several disjoint currents, a continuous cyclonic boundary current (BC) encircling the Levantine basin is identified in both model solution and altimetry data. This EMS BC advects eddy chains downstream and is identified as a principle source of regional mesoscale and submesoscale current variability. During the seasonal fall to winter mixed layer deepening, energetic submesoscale (O(10 km)) eddies, fronts, and filaments emerge throughout the basin, characterized by O(1) Rossby numbers. A submesoscale time scale range of ≈1–5 days is identified using spatiotemporal analysis of the numerical solutions, and confirmed through mooring data. The submesoscale kinetic energy (KE) wavenumber (k) spectral slope is found to be k −2, shallower than the quasigeostrophic-like ~ k −3 slope diagnosed in summer. The shallowness of the winter spectral slope is shown to be due to divergent subinertial motions, consistent with the Boyd 1992 theoretical model, rather than with the surface quasigeostrophic model. Using a coarse graining approach, we diagnose a seasonal inverse (forward) KE cascade above (below) 30 km scales due to rotational (divergent) motions, and show that these commence after completion of the fall submesosacle energization. We also show that at scales larger than several 100 kms, the spectral density becomes near-constant and a weak forward cascade occurs, from gyre scales to mesoscales.
Abstract
The East Mediterranean Sea (EMS) circulation has previously been characterized as dominated by gyres, mesoscale eddies, and disjoint boundary currents. We develop nested high-resolution numerical simulations in the EMS to examine the circulation variability with an emphasis on the yet unexplored regional submesoscale currents. Rather than several disjoint currents, a continuous cyclonic boundary current (BC) encircling the Levantine basin is identified in both model solution and altimetry data. This EMS BC advects eddy chains downstream and is identified as a principle source of regional mesoscale and submesoscale current variability. During the seasonal fall to winter mixed layer deepening, energetic submesoscale (O(10 km)) eddies, fronts, and filaments emerge throughout the basin, characterized by O(1) Rossby numbers. A submesoscale time scale range of ≈1–5 days is identified using spatiotemporal analysis of the numerical solutions, and confirmed through mooring data. The submesoscale kinetic energy (KE) wavenumber (k) spectral slope is found to be k −2, shallower than the quasigeostrophic-like ~ k −3 slope diagnosed in summer. The shallowness of the winter spectral slope is shown to be due to divergent subinertial motions, consistent with the Boyd 1992 theoretical model, rather than with the surface quasigeostrophic model. Using a coarse graining approach, we diagnose a seasonal inverse (forward) KE cascade above (below) 30 km scales due to rotational (divergent) motions, and show that these commence after completion of the fall submesosacle energization. We also show that at scales larger than several 100 kms, the spectral density becomes near-constant and a weak forward cascade occurs, from gyre scales to mesoscales.
Abstract
A companion paper by Fritts et al. (2023a) reviews evidence for Kelvin-Helmholtz instability (KHI) “tube” and “knot” (T&K) dynamics that appear to be widespread throughout the atmosphere. Here we describe the results of an idealized direct numerical simulation of multi-scale gravity wave dynamics that reveals multiple larger- and smaller-scale KHI T&K events. The results enable assessments of the environments in which these dynamics arise and their competition with concurrent gravity wave breaking in driving turbulence and energy dissipation. A larger-scale event is diagnosed in detail and reveals diverse and intense T&K dynamics driving more intense turbulence than occurs due to gravity wave breaking in the same environment. Smaller-scale events reveal that KHI T&K dynamics readily extend to weaker, smaller-scale, and increasingly viscous shear flows. Our results suggest that KHI T&K dynamics should be widespread, perhaps ubiquitous, wherever superposed gravity waves induce intensifying shear layers, because such layers are virtually always present. A second companion paper (Fritts et al. 2023b) demonstrates that KHI T&K dynamics exhibit elevated turbulence generation and energy dissipation rates extending to smaller Reynolds numbers for relevant KHI scales wherever they arise. These dynamics are suggested to be significant sources of turbulence and mixing throughout the atmosphere that are currently ignored or under-represented in turbulence parameterizations in regional and global models.
Abstract
A companion paper by Fritts et al. (2023a) reviews evidence for Kelvin-Helmholtz instability (KHI) “tube” and “knot” (T&K) dynamics that appear to be widespread throughout the atmosphere. Here we describe the results of an idealized direct numerical simulation of multi-scale gravity wave dynamics that reveals multiple larger- and smaller-scale KHI T&K events. The results enable assessments of the environments in which these dynamics arise and their competition with concurrent gravity wave breaking in driving turbulence and energy dissipation. A larger-scale event is diagnosed in detail and reveals diverse and intense T&K dynamics driving more intense turbulence than occurs due to gravity wave breaking in the same environment. Smaller-scale events reveal that KHI T&K dynamics readily extend to weaker, smaller-scale, and increasingly viscous shear flows. Our results suggest that KHI T&K dynamics should be widespread, perhaps ubiquitous, wherever superposed gravity waves induce intensifying shear layers, because such layers are virtually always present. A second companion paper (Fritts et al. 2023b) demonstrates that KHI T&K dynamics exhibit elevated turbulence generation and energy dissipation rates extending to smaller Reynolds numbers for relevant KHI scales wherever they arise. These dynamics are suggested to be significant sources of turbulence and mixing throughout the atmosphere that are currently ignored or under-represented in turbulence parameterizations in regional and global models.
Abstract
Many factors shape public perceptions of extreme weather risk; understanding these factors is important to encourage preparedness. This article describes a novel workshop designed to encourage individual and community decision making about predicted storm surge flooding. Over 160 U.S. college students participated in this four-hour experience. Distinctive features included: (1) two kinds of visualizations, standard weather forecasting graphics vs. 3D computer graphics visualization; (2) narrative about a fictitious storm, roleplay, and guided discussion of participants’ concerns; and 3) use of an “ethical matrix,” a collective decision-making tool that elicits diverse perspectives based on the lived experiences of diverse stakeholders. Participants experienced a narrative about a hurricane with potential for devastating storm surge flooding on a fictitious coastal college campus. They answered survey questions before, at key points during, and after the narrative, interspersed with forecasts leading to predicted storm landfall. During facilitated breakout groups, participants role-played characters and filled out an ethical matrix. Discussing the matrix encouraged consideration of circumstances impacting evacuation decisions. Participants’ comments suggest several components may have influenced perceptions of personal risk, risks to others, the importance of monitoring weather, and preparing for emergencies. Surprisingly, no differences between the standard forecast graphics vs. the immersive, hyper-local visualizations were detected. Overall, participants’ comments indicate the workshop increased appreciation of others’ evacuation and preparation challenges.
Abstract
Many factors shape public perceptions of extreme weather risk; understanding these factors is important to encourage preparedness. This article describes a novel workshop designed to encourage individual and community decision making about predicted storm surge flooding. Over 160 U.S. college students participated in this four-hour experience. Distinctive features included: (1) two kinds of visualizations, standard weather forecasting graphics vs. 3D computer graphics visualization; (2) narrative about a fictitious storm, roleplay, and guided discussion of participants’ concerns; and 3) use of an “ethical matrix,” a collective decision-making tool that elicits diverse perspectives based on the lived experiences of diverse stakeholders. Participants experienced a narrative about a hurricane with potential for devastating storm surge flooding on a fictitious coastal college campus. They answered survey questions before, at key points during, and after the narrative, interspersed with forecasts leading to predicted storm landfall. During facilitated breakout groups, participants role-played characters and filled out an ethical matrix. Discussing the matrix encouraged consideration of circumstances impacting evacuation decisions. Participants’ comments suggest several components may have influenced perceptions of personal risk, risks to others, the importance of monitoring weather, and preparing for emergencies. Surprisingly, no differences between the standard forecast graphics vs. the immersive, hyper-local visualizations were detected. Overall, participants’ comments indicate the workshop increased appreciation of others’ evacuation and preparation challenges.
Abstract
Accurate and reliable seasonal forecasts are important for water and energy supply management. Recognizing the important role of snow water equivalent (SWE) for water management, here we include the seasonal forecast of SWE in addition to precipitation (P) and 2-m temperature (T2m) over hydrologically defined regions of the western U.S. A two-stage process is applied to seasonal predictions from two models (NCEP CFSv2 and ECMWF SEAS5) through 1) post-processing to remove biases in the mean, variance, and ensemble spread, and 2) further reducing the residual errors by linear regression using climate indices. The adjusted forecasts from the two models are combined to form a super-ensemble using weights based on their prior skill. The adjusted forecasts are consistently improved over raw model forecasts probabilistically for all variables and deterministically for SWE forecasts. Overall skill of the super-ensemble usually improves upon the skill of forecasts from individual models, however the percentage of seasons and regions with increased skill was approximately the same as those with decreased skill relative to the top performing post-processed individual model. Seasonal SWE has the highest prediction skill, followed by T2m, with P showing lower prediction skill. Persistence contributes strongly to the skill of SWE and moderately to the skill of T2m. Furthermore, a distinct seasonality in the skill is seen in SWE, with a higher skill from late spring through early summer.
Abstract
Accurate and reliable seasonal forecasts are important for water and energy supply management. Recognizing the important role of snow water equivalent (SWE) for water management, here we include the seasonal forecast of SWE in addition to precipitation (P) and 2-m temperature (T2m) over hydrologically defined regions of the western U.S. A two-stage process is applied to seasonal predictions from two models (NCEP CFSv2 and ECMWF SEAS5) through 1) post-processing to remove biases in the mean, variance, and ensemble spread, and 2) further reducing the residual errors by linear regression using climate indices. The adjusted forecasts from the two models are combined to form a super-ensemble using weights based on their prior skill. The adjusted forecasts are consistently improved over raw model forecasts probabilistically for all variables and deterministically for SWE forecasts. Overall skill of the super-ensemble usually improves upon the skill of forecasts from individual models, however the percentage of seasons and regions with increased skill was approximately the same as those with decreased skill relative to the top performing post-processed individual model. Seasonal SWE has the highest prediction skill, followed by T2m, with P showing lower prediction skill. Persistence contributes strongly to the skill of SWE and moderately to the skill of T2m. Furthermore, a distinct seasonality in the skill is seen in SWE, with a higher skill from late spring through early summer.
Abstract
Thresholds of soil moisture exist below which the atmosphere becomes hypersensitive to land surface drying, inducing thermal feedbacks that can exacerbate heatwaves. Realistic representation of threshold transitions in forecast models could improve extreme heat predictability and understanding of the role of land-atmosphere coupling. This study evaluates the performance of several forecast models from the Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) and several prototype versions of the Unified Forecast System (UFS) in their representation of threshold transitions by validation against reanalysis data.
A metric of skill (True Skill Score) is applied to soil moisture breakpoint values, which mark the transition to heatwave hypersensitivity for drying soils. Forecast models have poor skill at being initialized on the correct side of the breakpoint, but show improvement when normalized to account for deficiencies in their soil moisture climatologies. Regionally, models performed best in the Northwest US and worst in the Southwest. They effectively capture the tendency of western regions to spend more summer days in the hypersensitive regime than the eastern US. Models represent well extreme heat as a consequence of atmospheric initial state for the first week of forecast, but struggle to represent the soil moisture feedback regime. Forecast models generally perform better at extreme heat prediction when they are already dry and in the hypersensitive regime, even when erroneously so, implying that errors or biases exist in model parameterizations. Nevertheless, composite analysis shows encouraging model performance of the “hit” category, suggesting that an improvement in soil moisture initialization could further improve extreme heat forecast skill.
Abstract
Thresholds of soil moisture exist below which the atmosphere becomes hypersensitive to land surface drying, inducing thermal feedbacks that can exacerbate heatwaves. Realistic representation of threshold transitions in forecast models could improve extreme heat predictability and understanding of the role of land-atmosphere coupling. This study evaluates the performance of several forecast models from the Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) and several prototype versions of the Unified Forecast System (UFS) in their representation of threshold transitions by validation against reanalysis data.
A metric of skill (True Skill Score) is applied to soil moisture breakpoint values, which mark the transition to heatwave hypersensitivity for drying soils. Forecast models have poor skill at being initialized on the correct side of the breakpoint, but show improvement when normalized to account for deficiencies in their soil moisture climatologies. Regionally, models performed best in the Northwest US and worst in the Southwest. They effectively capture the tendency of western regions to spend more summer days in the hypersensitive regime than the eastern US. Models represent well extreme heat as a consequence of atmospheric initial state for the first week of forecast, but struggle to represent the soil moisture feedback regime. Forecast models generally perform better at extreme heat prediction when they are already dry and in the hypersensitive regime, even when erroneously so, implying that errors or biases exist in model parameterizations. Nevertheless, composite analysis shows encouraging model performance of the “hit” category, suggesting that an improvement in soil moisture initialization could further improve extreme heat forecast skill.
Abstract
To simulate the large-scale impacts of wind farms, wind turbines are parameterized within mesoscale models in which grid sizes are typically much larger than turbine scales. Five wind-farm parameterizations were implemented in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model v4.3.3 to simulate multiple operational wind farms in the North Sea, which were verified against a satellite image, airborne measurements, and the FINO-1 meteorological mast data on 14 October 2017. The parameterization by Volker et al. underestimated turbulence and wind-speed deficit compared to measurements and to the parameterization of Fitch et al., which is the default in WRF. The Abkar and Porté-Agel parameterization gave close predictions of wind speed to that of Fitch et al. with lower magnitude of predicted turbulence, although the parameterization was sensitive to a tunable constant. The parameterization by Pan and Archer resulted in turbine-induced thrust and turbulence that were slightly less than that of Fitch et al., but resulted in a substantial drop in power generation due to the magnification of wind-speed differences in power calculation. The parameterization by Redfern et al. was not substantially different from Fitch et al. in the absence of conditions such as strong wind veer. The simulations indicated the need for a turbine-induced turbulence source within a wind-farm parameterization for improved prediction of near-surface wind speed, near-surface temperature, and turbulence. The induced turbulence was responsible for enhancing turbulent momentum flux near the surface, causing a local speed-up of near-surface wind speed inside a wind farm. Our findings highlighted that wakes from large offshore wind farms could extend 100 km downwind, reducing downwind power production as in the case of the 400-MW Bard Offshore 1 wind farm whose power output was reduced by the wakes of the 402-MW Veja Mate wind farm for this case study.
Abstract
To simulate the large-scale impacts of wind farms, wind turbines are parameterized within mesoscale models in which grid sizes are typically much larger than turbine scales. Five wind-farm parameterizations were implemented in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model v4.3.3 to simulate multiple operational wind farms in the North Sea, which were verified against a satellite image, airborne measurements, and the FINO-1 meteorological mast data on 14 October 2017. The parameterization by Volker et al. underestimated turbulence and wind-speed deficit compared to measurements and to the parameterization of Fitch et al., which is the default in WRF. The Abkar and Porté-Agel parameterization gave close predictions of wind speed to that of Fitch et al. with lower magnitude of predicted turbulence, although the parameterization was sensitive to a tunable constant. The parameterization by Pan and Archer resulted in turbine-induced thrust and turbulence that were slightly less than that of Fitch et al., but resulted in a substantial drop in power generation due to the magnification of wind-speed differences in power calculation. The parameterization by Redfern et al. was not substantially different from Fitch et al. in the absence of conditions such as strong wind veer. The simulations indicated the need for a turbine-induced turbulence source within a wind-farm parameterization for improved prediction of near-surface wind speed, near-surface temperature, and turbulence. The induced turbulence was responsible for enhancing turbulent momentum flux near the surface, causing a local speed-up of near-surface wind speed inside a wind farm. Our findings highlighted that wakes from large offshore wind farms could extend 100 km downwind, reducing downwind power production as in the case of the 400-MW Bard Offshore 1 wind farm whose power output was reduced by the wakes of the 402-MW Veja Mate wind farm for this case study.
Abstract
A severe derecho impacted the Midwestern United States on 10 August 2020, causing over 12 billion dollars in damage, and producing peak winds estimated at 63 m s−1, with the worst impacts in Iowa. The event was not forecast well by operational forecasters, nor even by operational and quasi-operational convection-allowing models.
In the present study, nine simulations are performed using the Limited Area Model version of the Finite-Volume-Cubed-Sphere model (FV3-LAM) with three horizontal grid spacings and two physics suites. In addition, when a prototype of the Rapid Refresh Forecast System (RRFS) physics is used, sensitivity tests are performed to examine the impact of using the Grell-Freitas (GF) convective scheme.
Several unusual results are obtained. With both the RRFS (not using GF) and Global Forecast System (GFS) physics suites, simulations using relatively coarse 13 and 25 km horizontal grid spacing do a much better job of showing an organized convective system in Iowa during the daylight hours of 10 August than the 3-km grid spacing runs. In addition, the RRFS run with 25-km grid spacing becomes much worse when the GF convective scheme is used. The 3-km RRFS run that does not use the GF scheme develops spurious nocturnal convection the night before the derecho, removing instability and preventing the derecho from being simulated at all. When GF is used, the spurious storms are removed and an excellent forecast is obtained with an intense bowing echo, exceptionally strong cold pool, and roughly 50 m s−1 surface wind gusts.
Abstract
A severe derecho impacted the Midwestern United States on 10 August 2020, causing over 12 billion dollars in damage, and producing peak winds estimated at 63 m s−1, with the worst impacts in Iowa. The event was not forecast well by operational forecasters, nor even by operational and quasi-operational convection-allowing models.
In the present study, nine simulations are performed using the Limited Area Model version of the Finite-Volume-Cubed-Sphere model (FV3-LAM) with three horizontal grid spacings and two physics suites. In addition, when a prototype of the Rapid Refresh Forecast System (RRFS) physics is used, sensitivity tests are performed to examine the impact of using the Grell-Freitas (GF) convective scheme.
Several unusual results are obtained. With both the RRFS (not using GF) and Global Forecast System (GFS) physics suites, simulations using relatively coarse 13 and 25 km horizontal grid spacing do a much better job of showing an organized convective system in Iowa during the daylight hours of 10 August than the 3-km grid spacing runs. In addition, the RRFS run with 25-km grid spacing becomes much worse when the GF convective scheme is used. The 3-km RRFS run that does not use the GF scheme develops spurious nocturnal convection the night before the derecho, removing instability and preventing the derecho from being simulated at all. When GF is used, the spurious storms are removed and an excellent forecast is obtained with an intense bowing echo, exceptionally strong cold pool, and roughly 50 m s−1 surface wind gusts.
Abstract
In operational weather forecasting, it is effective to aggregate information on all members of an ensemble forecast through cluster analysis. The temporal coherence of ensemble members in each cluster is an important piece of information about the robustness of the forecast scenario given by clusters. This information is especially important for forecasts for which the target area is a city or prefecture, that is, an Eulerian framework, because the members that compose each cluster can change over time because of the small size of the target area. This study provided the temporal coherence of members in clusters by performing principal component analysis and cluster analysis on 3-hourly 500-hPa geopotential height forecasts and linking the clustering results in the time direction. The new method provided a consistently well-divided forecast scenario throughout the forecast period for Eulerian frame forecasts, as well as information on the temporal coherency of the members in the clusters, which was demonstrated to be effective through the experiment to preselect a cluster with small errors. The application of the new technique to improve precipitation forecasts was also discussed.
Significance Statement
Numerical weather forecasts always contain errors. Although the uncertainty of such forecasts cannot be obtained from the forecast itself, ensemble forecasts, which are aggregates of many forecasts, can be used to estimate the uncertainty of the forecast. In this study, a new method was developed to transfer the information contained in many ensemble forecasts into four forecasts by cluster analysis and to provide forecast information suitable for a small forecasting area such as a prefecture. The use of this method for improving precipitation forecasts was also examined.
Abstract
In operational weather forecasting, it is effective to aggregate information on all members of an ensemble forecast through cluster analysis. The temporal coherence of ensemble members in each cluster is an important piece of information about the robustness of the forecast scenario given by clusters. This information is especially important for forecasts for which the target area is a city or prefecture, that is, an Eulerian framework, because the members that compose each cluster can change over time because of the small size of the target area. This study provided the temporal coherence of members in clusters by performing principal component analysis and cluster analysis on 3-hourly 500-hPa geopotential height forecasts and linking the clustering results in the time direction. The new method provided a consistently well-divided forecast scenario throughout the forecast period for Eulerian frame forecasts, as well as information on the temporal coherency of the members in the clusters, which was demonstrated to be effective through the experiment to preselect a cluster with small errors. The application of the new technique to improve precipitation forecasts was also discussed.
Significance Statement
Numerical weather forecasts always contain errors. Although the uncertainty of such forecasts cannot be obtained from the forecast itself, ensemble forecasts, which are aggregates of many forecasts, can be used to estimate the uncertainty of the forecast. In this study, a new method was developed to transfer the information contained in many ensemble forecasts into four forecasts by cluster analysis and to provide forecast information suitable for a small forecasting area such as a prefecture. The use of this method for improving precipitation forecasts was also examined.
