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Chi-June Jung
and
Ben Jong-Dao Jou

Abstract

Severe rainfall has become increasingly frequent and intense in the Taipei metropolitan area. A complex thunderstorm in the Taipei Basin on 14 June 2015 produced an extreme rain rate (>130 mm h−1), leading to an urban flash flood. This paper presents storms’ microphysical and dynamic features during the organizing and heavy rain stages, mainly based on observed polarimetric variables in a Doppler radar network and ground-based raindrop size distribution. Shallower isolated cells in the early afternoon characterized by big raindrops produced a rain rate > 10 mm h−1, but the rain showers persisted for a short time. The storm’s evolution highlighted the behavior of merged convective cells before the heaviest rainfall (exceeding 60 mm within 20 min). The columnar features of differential reflectivity (Z DR) and specific differential phase (K DP) became more evident in merged cells, which correlated with the broad distribution of upward motion and mixed-phase hydrometeors. The K DP below the environmental 0°C level increased toward the ground associated with the melted graupel and resulted in subsequent intense rain rates, showing the contribution of the ice-phase process. Due to the collision–breakup process, the highest concentrations of almost all drop sizes and smaller mass-weighted mean diameter occurred during the maximum rainfall stage.

Open access
Vinzent Klaus
,
Harald Rieder
, and
Rudolf Kaltenböck

Abstract

Data from a dual-polarized, solid-state X-band radar and an operational C-band weather radar are used for high-resolution analyses of two hailstorms in the Vienna, Austria, region. The combination of both radars provides rapid-update (1 min) polarimetric data paired with wind field data of a dual-Doppler analysis. This is the first time that such an advanced setup is used to examine severe storm dynamics at the eastern Alpine fringe, where the influence of local topography is particularly challenging for thunderstorm prediction. We investigate two storms transitioning from the pre-Alps into the Vienna basin with different characteristics: 1) A rapidly evolving multicell storm producing large hail (5 cm), with observations of an intense Z DR column preceding hail formation and the rapid development of multiple pulses of hail; and 2) a cold pool–driven squall line with small hail, for which we find that the updraft location inhibited the formation of larger hailstones. For both cases, we analyzed the evolution of different Z DR column metrics as well as updraft speed and size and found that (i) the 90th percentile of Z DR within the Z DR column was highest for the cell later producing large hail, (ii) the peak 90th percentile of Z DR preceded large hailfall by 20 min and highest updraft size and speed by 10 min, and (iii) sudden drops of the 90th percentile of ZH within the Z DR column indicated imminent hailfall.

Significance Statement

Thunderstorm evolution on the transition from complex terrain into the Vienna basin in northeastern Austria varies strongly. In some instances, thunderstorm cells intensify once they reach flat terrain, while in most cases there is a weakening tendency. To improve our process understanding and short-term forecasting methods, we analyze two representative cases of hail-bearing storms transitioning into the Vienna basin. We mainly build our study on data from a new, cost-efficient weather radar, complemented by an operational radar, lightning observations, and ground reports. Our results show which radar variables could be well suited for early detection of intensification, and how they relate to thunderstorm updraft speeds and lightning activity.

Restricted access
Christian L. E. Franzke
and
Nili Harnik

Abstract

The atmospheric circulation response to global warming is an important problem that is theoretically still not well understood. This is a particular issue since climate model simulations provide uncertain, and at times contradictory, projections of future climate. In particular, it is still unclear how a warmer and moister atmosphere will affect midlatitude eddies and their associated poleward transport of heat and moisture. Here we perform a trend analysis of three main components of the global circulation—the zonal-mean state, eddies, and the net energy input into the atmosphere—and examine how they relate in terms of a moist static energy budget for the JRA-55 reanalysis data. A particular emphasis is made on understanding the contribution of moisture to circulation trends. The observed trends are very different between the hemispheres. In the Southern Hemisphere there is an overall strengthening and during boreal summer, also a poleward shifting, of the jet stream, the eddies, and the meridional diabatic heating gradients. Correspondingly, we find an overall strengthening of the meridional gradients of the net atmospheric energy input. In the Northern Hemisphere, the trend patterns are more complex, with the dominant signal being a clear boreal winter Arctic amplification of positive trends in lower-tropospheric temperature and moisture, as well as a significant weakening of both bandpass and low-pass eddy heat and moisture fluxes. Consistently, surface latent and sensible heat fluxes, upward and downward longwave radiation, and longwave cloud radiative fluxes at high latitudes show significant trends. However, radiative fluxes and eddy fluxes are inconsistent, suggesting data assimilation procedures need to be improved.

Significance Statement

We use a long-term reanalysis dataset to get an overall view of the changes in the global circulation and its role in transporting moist static energy from the equator to the poles. We do this by examining the trends in its three main components—the zonal means, the eddies, and the net energy input into the atmosphere. We find that in the Southern Hemisphere, there is an overall strengthening of the eddies, their poleward energy fluxes, and correspondingly the meridional gradients of the net atmospheric energy input. In the Northern Hemisphere, though the pattern is more complex, there is an overall weakening of the eddies and poleward eddy fluxes, and of the meridional gradients of the net atmospheric energy input, consistent with Arctic warming.

Open access
Z. Liu
,
C. He
,
M. Yan
,
C. Buizert
,
B. L. Otto-Bliesner
,
F. Lu
, and
C. Zeng

Abstract

Reconstructing the history of polar temperature from ice core water isotope (δ 18O) calibration has remained a challenge in paleoclimate research, because of our incomplete understanding of various temperature–δ 18O relationships. This paper resolves this classical problem in a new framework called the unified slope equations (USE), which illustrates the general relations among spatial and temporal δ 18O–surface temperature slopes. The USE is applied to the Antarctica temperature change during the last deglaciation in model simulations and observations. It is shown that the comparable Antarctica-mean spatial slope with deglacial temporal slope in δ 18O–surface temperature reconstruction is caused, accidentally, by the compensation responses between the δ 18O–inversion layer temperature relation and the inversion layer temperature itself. Furthermore, in light of the USE, we propose that the present seasonal slope of δ 18O–inversion layer temperature is an optimal paleothermometer that is more accurate and robust than the spatial slope. This optimal slope suggests the possibility of reconstructing past Antarctic temperature changes using present and future instrumental observations.

Significance Statement

This paper develops a new framework called the unified slope equations (USE) to provide, for the first time, a general relation among various spatial and temporal water isotope–temperature slopes. The application of the USE to Antarctic deglacial temperature change shows that the optimal paleothermometer is the seasonal slope of the inversion layer temperature.

Open access
Zied Ben Bouallègue
,
Fenwick Cooper
,
Matthew Chantry
,
Peter Düben
,
Peter Bechtold
, and
Irina Sandu

Abstract

Based on the principle “learn from past errors to correct current forecasts,” statistical postprocessing consists of optimizing forecasts generated by numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. In this context, machine learning (ML) offers state-of-the-art tools for training statistical models and making predictions based on large datasets. In our study, ML-based solutions are developed to reduce forecast errors of 2-m temperature and 10-m wind speed of the ECMWF’s operational medium-range, high-resolution forecasts produced with the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS). IFS forecasts and other spatiotemporal indicators are used as predictors after careful selection with the help of ML interpretability tools. Different ML approaches are tested: linear regression, random forest decision trees, and neural networks. Statistical models of systematic and random errors are derived sequentially where the random error is defined as the residual error after bias correction. In terms of output, bias correction and forecast uncertainty prediction are made available at any point from locations around the world. All three ML methods show a similar ability to capture situation-dependent biases leading to noteworthy performance improvements (between 10% and 15% improvement in terms of root-mean-square error for all lead times and variables), and a similar ability to provide reliable uncertainty predictions.

Open access
Željka Stone
,
G. R. Alvey III
,
J. P. Dunion
,
M. S. Fischer
,
D. J. Raymond
,
R. F. Rogers
,
S. Sentić
, and
J. Zawislak

Abstract

As a part of the Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification Project (TCRI), observations were made of the rapid intensification of Hurricane Sally (2020) as it passed over the Gulf of Mexico. High-altitude dropsondes and radar observations from NOAA’s Gulfstream IV, radar observations from WP-3D aircraft, the WSR-88D ground radar network, satellite images, and satellite-detected lightning strikes are used to apply recently developed theoretical knowledge about tropical cyclone intensification. As observed in many other tropical cyclones, strong, bottom-heavy vertical mass flux profiles are correlated with low (but positive) values of low- to midlevel moist convective instability along with high column relative humidity. Such mass flux profiles produce rapid spinup at low levels and the environmental conditions giving rise to them are associated with an intense midlevel vortex. This low-level spinup underneath the midlevel vortex results in the vertical alignment of the vortex column, which is a key step in the rapid intensification process. In the case of Sally, the spinup of the low-level vortex resulted from vorticity stretching, while the spinup of the midlevel vortex at 6 km resulted from vorticity tilting produced by the interaction of convective ascent with moderate vertical shear.

Significance Statement

The purpose of this study is to investigate the rapid intensification of Hurricane Sally as it was approaching the Florida Panhandle. We do that by analyzing an unprecedented dataset from the NOAA WP-3D and Gulfstream-IV aircraft, together with ground-based radar and satellite data. We find that both the dynamics (vorticity structure and evolution) and thermodynamics (instability index, saturation fraction, heating/mass flux profiles) need to be considered in diagnosing intensification processes. Further field projects with continuous high-altitude dropsondes and research are needed to see if these are applicable to other reformation events as well as genesis.

Open access
Enoch Jo
and
Sonia Lasher-Trapp

Abstract

Entrainment is a key process that can modulate the intensity of supercells, and a better understanding of its impact could help improve forecasts of thunderstorms and the precipitation they produce. In Part III of this series, the three distinct mechanisms of entrainment identified during the mature stage of idealized supercell thunderstorms in Part I (overturning “ribbons” of horizontal vorticity, “disorganized turbulent eddies,” and the “storm-relative airstream”) are examined as the absolute humidity of the environment is decreased. The existence of these mechanisms in a more realistic simulated storm environment is also established. Entrainment is calculated as fluxes of air across the storm core surface; passive fluid tracers help determine the resulting dilution of the storm updraft. Model microphysical rates are used to examine the direct impacts of entrainment on hydrometeors within the storm updraft as well as precipitation that falls to the ground. Results show that as mixed-layer humidity decreases, the “ribbons” and turbulent eddy mechanisms decrease in intensity, but their effects on precipitation production change little. With decreasing humidity in the 3–4 km AGL layer, the storm-relative airstream entrains less humid low-level air into the storm core, decreasing the vertical mass flux, and therefore the precipitation produced by the storm. When the humidity in the mid- to upper troposphere (4–20 km AGL) is decreased, precipitation is significantly reduced, but not due to the effects of the entrained air. Rather, enhanced evaporation and sublimation of falling precipitation decreases the overall precipitation efficiency of the storm.

Restricted access
Yu-An Chen
and
Chun-Chieh Wu

Abstract

The interaction between Typhoon Nepartak (2016) and the upper-tropospheric cold low (UTCL) is simulated to better understand the impact of UTCL on the structural and intensity change of tropical cyclones (TCs). An experiment without UTCL is also performed to highlight the quantitative impacts of UTCL. Furthermore, idealized sensitivity experiments are carried out to further investigate the specific TC–UTCL configurations leading to different interactions. It is shown that a TC interacting with the UTCL is associated with a more axisymmetric inner-core structure and an earlier rapid intensification. Three plausible mechanisms related to the causality between a UTCL and the intensity change of TC are addressed. First, the lower energy expenditure on outflow expansion leads to higher net heat energy and intensification rate. Second, the external eddy forcing reinforces the secondary circulation and promotes further TC development. Ultimately, the shear-induced downward and radial ventilation of the low-entropy air is unexpectedly reduced despite the presence of UTCL, leading to stronger inner-core convections in the upshear quadrants. In general, the TC–UTCL interaction process of Nepartak is favorable for TC intensification owing to the additional positive effect and the reduced negative effect. In addition, results from sensitivity experiments indicate that the most favorable interaction would occur when the UTCL is located to the north or northwest of the TC at a stable and proper distance of about one Rossby radius of deformation of the UTCL.

Restricted access
Prasanth Prabhakaran
,
Fabian Hoffmann
, and
Graham Feingold

Abstract

We explore the effect of aerosol perturbations on stratocumulus clouds in the context of marine cloud brightening (MCB) using high-resolution large-eddy simulations. We use a Lagrangian cloud microphysical model with very detailed treatment of aerosol activation and droplet growth. The aerosol forcing is represented as a finite-width rectangular pulse in time (uniform in space). We analyze three stratocumulus cloud systems differing in their surface precipitation rate, namely – non-precipitating, intermediate, and precipitating. We report on the diurnal evolution of these cloud systems subjected to a range of perturbations characterized by varying the amplitude and duration of the aerosol forcing pulse. Our simulations show that in the non-precipitating system, the clouds are relatively insensitive to duration and amplitude, and are sensitive only to the total number concentration of the injected aerosol. In contrast, the precipitating cloud system is affected by the duration and the amplitude of the forcing, with the sensitivity conditional on the state of the cloud system before the injection of aerosol particles. We use these case studies to assess the efficacy of potential MCB spraying strategies. Our analysis shows that negative LWP adjustments offset a substantial fraction of the Twomey induced brightening in all three cloud systems. This is countered by substantial cloud brightening obtained through precipitation suppression induced cloud-fraction adjustments.

Restricted access
James N. Moum
,
Daniel L. Rudnick
,
Emily L. Shroyer
,
Kenneth G. Hughes
,
Benjamin D. Reineman
,
Kyle Grindley
,
Jeffrey T. Sherman
,
Pavan Vutukur
,
Craig Van Appledorn
,
Kerry Latham
,
Aurélie J. Moulin
, and
T. M. Shaun Johnston

Abstract

A new autonomous turbulence profiling float has been designed, built and tested in field trials off Oregon. Flippin’ χ SOLO (F χ S) employs a SOLO-II buoyancy engine that not only changes but also shifts ballast to move the center of mass to positions on either side of the center of buoyancy thus causing F χ S to flip. F χ S is outfitted with a full suite of turbulence sensors—two shear probes, two fast thermistors and pitot tube as well as a pressure sensor and 3-axis linear accelerometers. F χ S descends and ascends with turbulence sensors leading, thereby permitting measurement through the sea surface. The turbulence sensors are housed antipodal from communication antennae so as to eliminate flow disturbance. By flipping at the sea surface, antennae are exposed for communications. The mission of F χ S is to provide intensive profiling measurements of the upper ocean from 240m and through the sea surface, particularly during periods of extreme surface forcing. While surfaced, accelerometers provide estimates of wave height spectra and significant wave height. From 3 1 2 day field trials, here we evaluate (i) the statistics from two F χ S units and our established shipboard profiler, Chameleon, and (ii) F χ S-based wave statistics by comparison to a nearby NOAA wave buoy.

Restricted access