Abstract
The Clouds and the Earthās Radiant Energy System (CERES) Energy Balanced and Filled (EBAF) product combines CERES and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments on the Terra and Aqua satellites to create a record of earth radiation budget (ERB) and the associated cloud properties. As the Terra and Aqua orbits are no longer maintained at a fixed mean local time, EBAF recently transitioned to the CERES and Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) instruments on NOAA-20 to avoid introducing a time-dependent bias in the record. To ensure smooth transitions between the Terra, combined Terra and Aqua (Terra+Aqua), and NOAA-20 portions of the record, regional climatological adjustments derived from the overlap period between missions are applied to anchor the entire record to Terra+Aqua. We estimate the random error in global monthly anomalies following the transitions to be <0.15 W mā2 for top-of-atmosphere (TOA) flux and <0.1% for cloud fraction, much smaller than the standard deviation in the corresponding anomalies. As the number of ERB instruments will decrease from four to one in just 10 years, there is a high probability that a data gap in the EBAF record will occur, making it challenging to maintain continuity. We estimate that there is a 33% probability of a data gap in 2028 and a 60% probability in 2035. Bridging a data gap using computed TOA fluxes from one satellite product and one atmospheric reanalysis results in errors that are a factor of 4 larger than those obtained when there is overlap between successive missions.
Abstract
The Clouds and the Earthās Radiant Energy System (CERES) Energy Balanced and Filled (EBAF) product combines CERES and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments on the Terra and Aqua satellites to create a record of earth radiation budget (ERB) and the associated cloud properties. As the Terra and Aqua orbits are no longer maintained at a fixed mean local time, EBAF recently transitioned to the CERES and Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) instruments on NOAA-20 to avoid introducing a time-dependent bias in the record. To ensure smooth transitions between the Terra, combined Terra and Aqua (Terra+Aqua), and NOAA-20 portions of the record, regional climatological adjustments derived from the overlap period between missions are applied to anchor the entire record to Terra+Aqua. We estimate the random error in global monthly anomalies following the transitions to be <0.15 W mā2 for top-of-atmosphere (TOA) flux and <0.1% for cloud fraction, much smaller than the standard deviation in the corresponding anomalies. As the number of ERB instruments will decrease from four to one in just 10 years, there is a high probability that a data gap in the EBAF record will occur, making it challenging to maintain continuity. We estimate that there is a 33% probability of a data gap in 2028 and a 60% probability in 2035. Bridging a data gap using computed TOA fluxes from one satellite product and one atmospheric reanalysis results in errors that are a factor of 4 larger than those obtained when there is overlap between successive missions.
Abstract
Although links between the atmospheric convergence zone and the local ocean dipole in the South Atlantic are well established, relationships between the South Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ) and the South Pacific quadrupole (SPQ) remain largely unexplored. Based on maximum covariance analysis applied to a 110-yr monthly coupled atmosphereāocean reanalysis, we describe a coupled quadrupole mode (CQM) that connects the SPCZ and SPQ during austral summer [DecemberāFebruary (DJF)]. The CQM is linked to the āenhanced SPCZā mode in the atmosphere and the SPQ in the ocean, with the atmospheric signal leading the ocean signal by about 1 month. This coupled mode essentially represents the atmospheric and oceanic responses to a stationary Rossby wave train that propagates from low- to high latitudes before reflecting back toward lower latitudes around 150Ā°E. Coupled atmosphereāocean feedbacks help to maintain anomalous convective activity in the SPCZ and related circulation anomalies. The stationary waves that organize the CQM are often rooted in anomalous convection over the Maritime Continent and have close connections with the atmospheric wavenumber-4 mode in the midlatitude Southern Hemisphere.
Significance Statement
In this study, we investigate the relationships between coherent large-scale patterns in the South Pacific Ocean and the overlying atmosphere. These patterns, which we refer to as a coupled quadrupole for their four centers of action, impact both local communities and the global climate by shaping rainfall and temperature anomalies across the āfour cornersā of the South Pacific: eastāwest and northāsouth. We show that this coupled quadrupole arises as the joint atmospheric and oceanic response to a large-scale wave that arcs across the entire South Pacific basin more than 10 km above the surface and that feedbacks from the ocean to the atmosphere help it to last longer.
Abstract
Although links between the atmospheric convergence zone and the local ocean dipole in the South Atlantic are well established, relationships between the South Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ) and the South Pacific quadrupole (SPQ) remain largely unexplored. Based on maximum covariance analysis applied to a 110-yr monthly coupled atmosphereāocean reanalysis, we describe a coupled quadrupole mode (CQM) that connects the SPCZ and SPQ during austral summer [DecemberāFebruary (DJF)]. The CQM is linked to the āenhanced SPCZā mode in the atmosphere and the SPQ in the ocean, with the atmospheric signal leading the ocean signal by about 1 month. This coupled mode essentially represents the atmospheric and oceanic responses to a stationary Rossby wave train that propagates from low- to high latitudes before reflecting back toward lower latitudes around 150Ā°E. Coupled atmosphereāocean feedbacks help to maintain anomalous convective activity in the SPCZ and related circulation anomalies. The stationary waves that organize the CQM are often rooted in anomalous convection over the Maritime Continent and have close connections with the atmospheric wavenumber-4 mode in the midlatitude Southern Hemisphere.
Significance Statement
In this study, we investigate the relationships between coherent large-scale patterns in the South Pacific Ocean and the overlying atmosphere. These patterns, which we refer to as a coupled quadrupole for their four centers of action, impact both local communities and the global climate by shaping rainfall and temperature anomalies across the āfour cornersā of the South Pacific: eastāwest and northāsouth. We show that this coupled quadrupole arises as the joint atmospheric and oceanic response to a large-scale wave that arcs across the entire South Pacific basin more than 10 km above the surface and that feedbacks from the ocean to the atmosphere help it to last longer.
Abstract
The tropical Pacific convergence zone plays a crucial role in the global climate system. Previous research studies emphasized the cross-seasonal influence of the South Pacific quadrupole (SPQ) mode on the tropical Pacific climate. This study assesses the relationship between austral summer SPQ and austral winter tropical precipitation in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) models. The analysis emphasizes the historical experiments conducted within this time frame, spanning from 1979 to 2014. Our findings reveal that the SPQ is accurately represented in all CMIP6 models, but the connection between SPQ and precipitation is inadequately simulated in most models. To investigate the reasons behind these intermodel differences in reproducing SPQ-related processes, we categorize models into two groups. The comparisons demonstrate that the fidelity of model simulations in replicating the SPQātropical precipitation relationship hinges significantly on their capacity to reproduce the positive windāevaporationāsea surface temperature (WES; SST) feedback over both the southwestern Pacific (25Ā°ā10Ā°S; 150Ā°Eā160Ā°W) and the southeastern Pacific (30Ā°ā10Ā°S; 140Ā°ā80Ā°W). This positive WES feedback propagates the SPQ signal into the tropics, intensifying the meridional gradient of SST anomaly in the tropical western-central Pacific, which consequently amplifies convection and rainfall in that area. In the group of models that failed to simulate this relationship accurately, the weakened WES feedback can be traced back to biases in wind speed and its variation. Furthermore, this WES feedback establishes a connection between SPQ and El NiƱoāSouthern Oscillation (ENSO). A better rendition of the SPQātropical rainfall connection tends to result in a better simulation of the onset of SPQ-related ENSO events. As a result, this study advances our comprehension of extratropical impacts on the tropics, with the potential to enhance the accuracy of tropical climate simulation and prediction.
Significance Statement
Tropical rainfall plays an important role in the global climate system. Beyond the well-known influence of El NiƱoāSouthern Oscillation (ENSO) on the tropical rainfall, the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in the South Pacific has a cross-seasonal impact on the precipitation over the tropical Pacific via airāsea coupled processes. Such SST anomaly pattern shows a quadrupole structure in the extratropical South Pacific, known as the South Pacific quadrupole (SPQ) mode. However, the relationship between SPQ and tropical precipitation remains poorly simulated in most state-of-the-art climate models. One primary reason for this gap between observed and simulated relationships is the underestimation of wind speed and its variation over the south tropical Pacific in these models. This limitation undermines their ability to accurately represent the airāsea interactions that drive tropical precipitation patterns, leading to inaccuracies in simulations. Our study aims to bridge this knowledge gap by enhancing our understanding of the extratropical effects on the tropical Pacific. By exploring the mechanisms underlying the SPQāprecipitation connection, we expect to improve the simulation and prediction capabilities of tropical climate models, thereby enhancing our ability to forecast and adapt to future climatic changes.
Abstract
The tropical Pacific convergence zone plays a crucial role in the global climate system. Previous research studies emphasized the cross-seasonal influence of the South Pacific quadrupole (SPQ) mode on the tropical Pacific climate. This study assesses the relationship between austral summer SPQ and austral winter tropical precipitation in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) models. The analysis emphasizes the historical experiments conducted within this time frame, spanning from 1979 to 2014. Our findings reveal that the SPQ is accurately represented in all CMIP6 models, but the connection between SPQ and precipitation is inadequately simulated in most models. To investigate the reasons behind these intermodel differences in reproducing SPQ-related processes, we categorize models into two groups. The comparisons demonstrate that the fidelity of model simulations in replicating the SPQātropical precipitation relationship hinges significantly on their capacity to reproduce the positive windāevaporationāsea surface temperature (WES; SST) feedback over both the southwestern Pacific (25Ā°ā10Ā°S; 150Ā°Eā160Ā°W) and the southeastern Pacific (30Ā°ā10Ā°S; 140Ā°ā80Ā°W). This positive WES feedback propagates the SPQ signal into the tropics, intensifying the meridional gradient of SST anomaly in the tropical western-central Pacific, which consequently amplifies convection and rainfall in that area. In the group of models that failed to simulate this relationship accurately, the weakened WES feedback can be traced back to biases in wind speed and its variation. Furthermore, this WES feedback establishes a connection between SPQ and El NiƱoāSouthern Oscillation (ENSO). A better rendition of the SPQātropical rainfall connection tends to result in a better simulation of the onset of SPQ-related ENSO events. As a result, this study advances our comprehension of extratropical impacts on the tropics, with the potential to enhance the accuracy of tropical climate simulation and prediction.
Significance Statement
Tropical rainfall plays an important role in the global climate system. Beyond the well-known influence of El NiƱoāSouthern Oscillation (ENSO) on the tropical rainfall, the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in the South Pacific has a cross-seasonal impact on the precipitation over the tropical Pacific via airāsea coupled processes. Such SST anomaly pattern shows a quadrupole structure in the extratropical South Pacific, known as the South Pacific quadrupole (SPQ) mode. However, the relationship between SPQ and tropical precipitation remains poorly simulated in most state-of-the-art climate models. One primary reason for this gap between observed and simulated relationships is the underestimation of wind speed and its variation over the south tropical Pacific in these models. This limitation undermines their ability to accurately represent the airāsea interactions that drive tropical precipitation patterns, leading to inaccuracies in simulations. Our study aims to bridge this knowledge gap by enhancing our understanding of the extratropical effects on the tropical Pacific. By exploring the mechanisms underlying the SPQāprecipitation connection, we expect to improve the simulation and prediction capabilities of tropical climate models, thereby enhancing our ability to forecast and adapt to future climatic changes.
Abstract
El NiƱoāSouthern Oscillation (ENSO) exhibits a considerable asymmetry in sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTa), as El NiƱo events tend to be stronger and centered further east than La NiƱa events. Here, we analyze ENSO asymmetry in observations and preindustrial control integrations of 32 models participating in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Observations indicate a significant link between strong eastern Pacific (EP) El NiƱo events and the ENSO amplitude and asymmetry. The large CMIP6 database confirms this strong link. Most CMIP6 models suffer from an equatorial Pacific cold SST bias. This cold tongue bias hinders the southward migration of the ITCZ toward the equator over the eastern equatorial Pacific, which is characteristic of strong EP El NiƱo events in observations. Therefore, many models underestimate the eastern equatorial Pacific rainfall anomalies and simulate a wind stress feedback over the western Pacific that is too weak and too far west. As a result, the cold tongue bias exerts a strong control on the climate modelsā ability to generate strong EP El NiƱo events and therefore on the ENSO overall amplitude and asymmetry. We discuss the relevance of these results in view of a potential increase of strong EP El NiƱo events under global warming.
Significance Statement
El NiƱo and La NiƱa are asymmetric, as El NiƱo events tend to be stronger and further east than La NiƱa events. Due to an equatorial Pacific cold tongue bias with too cold SSTs, the simulation of ENSO asymmetry is degraded in many climate models participating in CMIP6. Here, we show how the cold tongue bias influences ENSO asymmetry. The cold bias hampers the simulation of strong eastern Pacific El NiƱos by making it more difficult for SST to exceed the threshold for deep atmospheric convection over the eastern equatorial Pacific. Recent research indicates that climate models with a realistic ENSO asymmetry agree on the projected ENSO under global warming. The results of this study suggest that reducing the cold tongue bias has the potential to enhancing the reliability of future ENSO projections.
Abstract
El NiƱoāSouthern Oscillation (ENSO) exhibits a considerable asymmetry in sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTa), as El NiƱo events tend to be stronger and centered further east than La NiƱa events. Here, we analyze ENSO asymmetry in observations and preindustrial control integrations of 32 models participating in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Observations indicate a significant link between strong eastern Pacific (EP) El NiƱo events and the ENSO amplitude and asymmetry. The large CMIP6 database confirms this strong link. Most CMIP6 models suffer from an equatorial Pacific cold SST bias. This cold tongue bias hinders the southward migration of the ITCZ toward the equator over the eastern equatorial Pacific, which is characteristic of strong EP El NiƱo events in observations. Therefore, many models underestimate the eastern equatorial Pacific rainfall anomalies and simulate a wind stress feedback over the western Pacific that is too weak and too far west. As a result, the cold tongue bias exerts a strong control on the climate modelsā ability to generate strong EP El NiƱo events and therefore on the ENSO overall amplitude and asymmetry. We discuss the relevance of these results in view of a potential increase of strong EP El NiƱo events under global warming.
Significance Statement
El NiƱo and La NiƱa are asymmetric, as El NiƱo events tend to be stronger and further east than La NiƱa events. Due to an equatorial Pacific cold tongue bias with too cold SSTs, the simulation of ENSO asymmetry is degraded in many climate models participating in CMIP6. Here, we show how the cold tongue bias influences ENSO asymmetry. The cold bias hampers the simulation of strong eastern Pacific El NiƱos by making it more difficult for SST to exceed the threshold for deep atmospheric convection over the eastern equatorial Pacific. Recent research indicates that climate models with a realistic ENSO asymmetry agree on the projected ENSO under global warming. The results of this study suggest that reducing the cold tongue bias has the potential to enhancing the reliability of future ENSO projections.
Abstract
This work continued the investigation of the relationship between phase transition rates and mass flux in trade wind cumulus clouds. The latter were simulated by an LES model initialized with soundings from the RICO field project. In Part I (Kogan, 2022) we demonstrated that a very high correlation exists between integral phase transition rates and upward mass flux. In this study we focused on the vertically dependent variables and showed that a similar high correlation exists between the condensation rate š (z) and the upward mass flux ā³ (z).
Based on condensation theory, we showed that under quasi-steady approximation condensation rates can be calculated by a linear function of ā³ with the slope coefficient dependent only on temperature and pressure. The model data showed that the error of such approximation is less than a few tenths of a percent.
The parameterization of the evaporation process is more complex, mostly because of the slow evaporation of raindrops as they fall through the cloudās unsaturated areas. Nevertheless, it was possible to define the fraction of evaporation to condensation rate as a function of vertical coordinate z and cloud thickness H. This function can be quite accurately approximated by the 3rd order polynomials of z and H. It is suggested that proposed formulation of evaporation together with the quasi-steady formulation of condensation can serve as a parameterization of water phase transition rates in shallow cumulus clouds.
Abstract
This work continued the investigation of the relationship between phase transition rates and mass flux in trade wind cumulus clouds. The latter were simulated by an LES model initialized with soundings from the RICO field project. In Part I (Kogan, 2022) we demonstrated that a very high correlation exists between integral phase transition rates and upward mass flux. In this study we focused on the vertically dependent variables and showed that a similar high correlation exists between the condensation rate š (z) and the upward mass flux ā³ (z).
Based on condensation theory, we showed that under quasi-steady approximation condensation rates can be calculated by a linear function of ā³ with the slope coefficient dependent only on temperature and pressure. The model data showed that the error of such approximation is less than a few tenths of a percent.
The parameterization of the evaporation process is more complex, mostly because of the slow evaporation of raindrops as they fall through the cloudās unsaturated areas. Nevertheless, it was possible to define the fraction of evaporation to condensation rate as a function of vertical coordinate z and cloud thickness H. This function can be quite accurately approximated by the 3rd order polynomials of z and H. It is suggested that proposed formulation of evaporation together with the quasi-steady formulation of condensation can serve as a parameterization of water phase transition rates in shallow cumulus clouds.
Abstract
The MaddenāJulian oscillation (MJO) is believed to play a significant role in triggering El NiƱoāSouthern Oscillation (ENSO) events and affect the dynamics of ENSO. In this study, the dynamic forcing effects of MJO on the equatorial oceanic dynamic fields and the onsets of different types of ENSO events are investigated through sensitive experiments using spatiotemporally filtered forcing based on an anomalous shallow water model. The comparisons between observations and model responses provide meaningful insights into the extent of MJOās impacts on sea surface dynamics relative to other atmospheric variabilities. The following conclusions are made. First, the MJO-forced perturbations on zonal currents are stronger and more significant than those on sea surface heights. Second, MJO is essential for improving zonal current simulation in the western-central Pacific and generating activity centers of zonal currents in the eastern Pacific in the model. Third, MJO tends to contribute to the onset of El NiƱo events rather than La NiƱa events. Strong intraseasonal oceanic Kelvin waves forced by MJO are confirmed in simulations during the onset stages of the 1997/98 and 2004/05 events. The 120-day running standard deviations of zonal current and sea surface height anomaly series forced by MJO exhibit positive skewness similar to those of the 20ā100-day band-passed observational series. Yet, not all the onsets of historical ENSO events are in company with strong MJO-related perturbations. Additionally, the wind stress formula can amplify the responses of zonal current and sea surface height anomalies to synoptic forcings with periods shorter than 20 days through entraining lower-frequency variabilities.
Significance Statement
The MaddenāJulian oscillation (MJO) is believed to be able to trigger El NiƱoāSouthern Oscillation (ENSO) events and influence our understanding of the fundamental nature of ENSO. In this study, spatiotemporally filtered forcing experiments are implemented on an anomalous shallow water model. The results show that MJO is more important for improving the simulation of surface zonal currents rather than the sea surface heights and tends to contribute to the onset of El NiƱo events rather than La NiƱa events through triggering strong intraseasonal oceanic Kelvin waves.
Abstract
The MaddenāJulian oscillation (MJO) is believed to play a significant role in triggering El NiƱoāSouthern Oscillation (ENSO) events and affect the dynamics of ENSO. In this study, the dynamic forcing effects of MJO on the equatorial oceanic dynamic fields and the onsets of different types of ENSO events are investigated through sensitive experiments using spatiotemporally filtered forcing based on an anomalous shallow water model. The comparisons between observations and model responses provide meaningful insights into the extent of MJOās impacts on sea surface dynamics relative to other atmospheric variabilities. The following conclusions are made. First, the MJO-forced perturbations on zonal currents are stronger and more significant than those on sea surface heights. Second, MJO is essential for improving zonal current simulation in the western-central Pacific and generating activity centers of zonal currents in the eastern Pacific in the model. Third, MJO tends to contribute to the onset of El NiƱo events rather than La NiƱa events. Strong intraseasonal oceanic Kelvin waves forced by MJO are confirmed in simulations during the onset stages of the 1997/98 and 2004/05 events. The 120-day running standard deviations of zonal current and sea surface height anomaly series forced by MJO exhibit positive skewness similar to those of the 20ā100-day band-passed observational series. Yet, not all the onsets of historical ENSO events are in company with strong MJO-related perturbations. Additionally, the wind stress formula can amplify the responses of zonal current and sea surface height anomalies to synoptic forcings with periods shorter than 20 days through entraining lower-frequency variabilities.
Significance Statement
The MaddenāJulian oscillation (MJO) is believed to be able to trigger El NiƱoāSouthern Oscillation (ENSO) events and influence our understanding of the fundamental nature of ENSO. In this study, spatiotemporally filtered forcing experiments are implemented on an anomalous shallow water model. The results show that MJO is more important for improving the simulation of surface zonal currents rather than the sea surface heights and tends to contribute to the onset of El NiƱo events rather than La NiƱa events through triggering strong intraseasonal oceanic Kelvin waves.
Abstract
Numerous tools and indices exist for wildland fire managers to anticipate and track changes in wildfire risk driven by variability in weather and climate conditions at hourly to seasonal scales. However, in working closely with southwest U.S. managers, we learned of a simple meteorological metric being informally used, but not widely accessible in existing tools or information products, to gauge short-term changes in wildfire risk. This metric, termed āBurn Periodā (BP), is the local count of hours per day with relative humidity values equal to or less than 20%. Our collaboration led to the development of an experimental tool called the āBurn Period Trackerā to ease access and promote use of BP values for planning and response. This study is a climatological analysis of BP values at 124 fire weather stations across Arizona and New Mexico for the period 2000-2022 to aid in interpretation and understanding of this use-inspired metric. BP values reflect the strong seasonality in temperature and moisture deficit-driven wildfire risk across the southwest U.S., with risk climbing through the arid spring season, peaking in June, and then falling rapidly with the onset of the summer monsoon in July. Regression analyses show that short-term variability in BP values are driven by variability in low level atmospheric moisture in all months with strongest relationships during the summer after the onset of the monsoon. This study highlights the utility of BP as a short-term wildfire planning tool as well as an example of collaborative weather and climate services development.
Abstract
Numerous tools and indices exist for wildland fire managers to anticipate and track changes in wildfire risk driven by variability in weather and climate conditions at hourly to seasonal scales. However, in working closely with southwest U.S. managers, we learned of a simple meteorological metric being informally used, but not widely accessible in existing tools or information products, to gauge short-term changes in wildfire risk. This metric, termed āBurn Periodā (BP), is the local count of hours per day with relative humidity values equal to or less than 20%. Our collaboration led to the development of an experimental tool called the āBurn Period Trackerā to ease access and promote use of BP values for planning and response. This study is a climatological analysis of BP values at 124 fire weather stations across Arizona and New Mexico for the period 2000-2022 to aid in interpretation and understanding of this use-inspired metric. BP values reflect the strong seasonality in temperature and moisture deficit-driven wildfire risk across the southwest U.S., with risk climbing through the arid spring season, peaking in June, and then falling rapidly with the onset of the summer monsoon in July. Regression analyses show that short-term variability in BP values are driven by variability in low level atmospheric moisture in all months with strongest relationships during the summer after the onset of the monsoon. This study highlights the utility of BP as a short-term wildfire planning tool as well as an example of collaborative weather and climate services development.
Abstract
Red flag warnings (RFWs) are issued by the US National Weather Service to alert fire and emergency response agencies of weather conditions that are conducive to extreme wildfire growth. Distinct from most weather warnings that aim to reduce exposure to anticipated hazards, RFWs may also mitigate hazards by reducing the occurrence of new ignitions. We examined the efficacy of RFWs as a means of limiting human-caused wildfire ignitions. From 2006-2020, approximately 8% of wildfires across the western United States, and 19% of large wildfires (ā„40 ha), occurred on days with RFWs. Although the occurrence of both lightning- and human-caused wildfires was elevated on RFW days compared to adjacent days without RFWs, we found evidence that modification of short-term behavioral choices on RFW days may reduce the number of certain human-caused ignitions (e.g., debris burning). By contrast, there is limited historical evidence that RFWs reduce the number of ignitions caused by habitual behaviors (e.g., smoking) or infrastructure (e.g., powerlines). Furthermore, the conditional probability of a human-caused wildfire becoming a large wildfire was 33% greater on days with RFWs, underscoring the value of wildfire prevention on these days. While RFWs are helpful in certain cases, our results suggest that their efficacy as a wildfire prevention measure has been somewhat limited in the western United States. As biophysical wildfire potential and the density of people living in wildfire-prone areas increase, so do the benefits of improved wildfire early warning systems that complement other wildfire mitigation and adaptation efforts.
Abstract
Red flag warnings (RFWs) are issued by the US National Weather Service to alert fire and emergency response agencies of weather conditions that are conducive to extreme wildfire growth. Distinct from most weather warnings that aim to reduce exposure to anticipated hazards, RFWs may also mitigate hazards by reducing the occurrence of new ignitions. We examined the efficacy of RFWs as a means of limiting human-caused wildfire ignitions. From 2006-2020, approximately 8% of wildfires across the western United States, and 19% of large wildfires (ā„40 ha), occurred on days with RFWs. Although the occurrence of both lightning- and human-caused wildfires was elevated on RFW days compared to adjacent days without RFWs, we found evidence that modification of short-term behavioral choices on RFW days may reduce the number of certain human-caused ignitions (e.g., debris burning). By contrast, there is limited historical evidence that RFWs reduce the number of ignitions caused by habitual behaviors (e.g., smoking) or infrastructure (e.g., powerlines). Furthermore, the conditional probability of a human-caused wildfire becoming a large wildfire was 33% greater on days with RFWs, underscoring the value of wildfire prevention on these days. While RFWs are helpful in certain cases, our results suggest that their efficacy as a wildfire prevention measure has been somewhat limited in the western United States. As biophysical wildfire potential and the density of people living in wildfire-prone areas increase, so do the benefits of improved wildfire early warning systems that complement other wildfire mitigation and adaptation efforts.
Abstract
Climate change simulations generally indicate the strengthening of El NiƱo Southern Oscillation (ENSO) sea surface temperature (SST) variability through the 21st century, yet a robust physical mechanism explaining this change across different models is still lacking, and the projections for ENSO amplitude exhibit a large spread. Most commonly, changes in the background state of the tropical Pacific are invoked to explain these changes of ENSO. Here we show that changes in the structure of wind-stress anomalies associated with ENSO are potentially as important as these background state changes. Specifically, changes in the magnitude, meridional width, and zonal structure of wind-stress anomalies can explain approximately 53% of the inter-model variance in the projected change of ENSO magnitude through the 21st century as well as 43% in ENSO periodicity changes. Among these changes in the wind structure, the meridional widening of wind anomalies plays the most important role. To demonstrate that these changes are indeed critical, we develop a hybrid model of ENSO based on the Community Earth System Model version 2, which incorporates a dynamical ocean coupled to a simplified statistical atmosphere within the tropical Pacific. In the absence of external forcing and corresponding mean-state changes, the imposed changes in wind stress anomalies in this hybrid model result in an increase of ENSO amplitudes of nearly 10% along the equator. Our results are also theoretically supported by a recharge-oscillator model that incorporates the meridional wind structure. Thus, changes in the structure of wind-stress anomalies, together with changes in the mean state, likely play a critical role in the projected strengthening of ENSO.
Abstract
Climate change simulations generally indicate the strengthening of El NiƱo Southern Oscillation (ENSO) sea surface temperature (SST) variability through the 21st century, yet a robust physical mechanism explaining this change across different models is still lacking, and the projections for ENSO amplitude exhibit a large spread. Most commonly, changes in the background state of the tropical Pacific are invoked to explain these changes of ENSO. Here we show that changes in the structure of wind-stress anomalies associated with ENSO are potentially as important as these background state changes. Specifically, changes in the magnitude, meridional width, and zonal structure of wind-stress anomalies can explain approximately 53% of the inter-model variance in the projected change of ENSO magnitude through the 21st century as well as 43% in ENSO periodicity changes. Among these changes in the wind structure, the meridional widening of wind anomalies plays the most important role. To demonstrate that these changes are indeed critical, we develop a hybrid model of ENSO based on the Community Earth System Model version 2, which incorporates a dynamical ocean coupled to a simplified statistical atmosphere within the tropical Pacific. In the absence of external forcing and corresponding mean-state changes, the imposed changes in wind stress anomalies in this hybrid model result in an increase of ENSO amplitudes of nearly 10% along the equator. Our results are also theoretically supported by a recharge-oscillator model that incorporates the meridional wind structure. Thus, changes in the structure of wind-stress anomalies, together with changes in the mean state, likely play a critical role in the projected strengthening of ENSO.