Abstract
We assess site-specific surface short-wave radiation forecasts from two high resolution configurations of the South African Weather Service numerical weather prediction model, at 4 km and 1.5 km. The models exhibit good skill overall in forecasting surface short-wave radiation, with zero median error for all radiation components. This information is relevant to support a growing Renewable Energy sector in South Africa, particularly for photovoltaics. Further model performance analysis has shown an imbalance between cloud and solar radiation forecasting errors. In addition, cloud over-prediction does not necessarily equate to under-estimating solar radiation. Overcast cloud regimes are predicted too often with an associated positive mean radiation bias, whereas the relative abundance of partly cloudy regimes is under-predicted by the models with mixed radiation biases. Challenges highlighted by the misrepresentation of partly cloudy regimes in solar radiation error attribution may be used to inform improvements to the numerical core, namely the cloud and radiation schemes.
Abstract
We assess site-specific surface short-wave radiation forecasts from two high resolution configurations of the South African Weather Service numerical weather prediction model, at 4 km and 1.5 km. The models exhibit good skill overall in forecasting surface short-wave radiation, with zero median error for all radiation components. This information is relevant to support a growing Renewable Energy sector in South Africa, particularly for photovoltaics. Further model performance analysis has shown an imbalance between cloud and solar radiation forecasting errors. In addition, cloud over-prediction does not necessarily equate to under-estimating solar radiation. Overcast cloud regimes are predicted too often with an associated positive mean radiation bias, whereas the relative abundance of partly cloudy regimes is under-predicted by the models with mixed radiation biases. Challenges highlighted by the misrepresentation of partly cloudy regimes in solar radiation error attribution may be used to inform improvements to the numerical core, namely the cloud and radiation schemes.
Abstract
The South Asian high (SAH) location and intensity are linked with the latent heating of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and Yangtze River basin. The relationship between SAH variability and its impact on South Asian monsoon (SAM) onset is rarely linked with TP soil moisture. This study uses remotely sensed soil moisture and reanalysis products to quantify the relationship between the TP spring (April–June) soil moisture with SAH and SAM onset during 1988–2008. The results show that the TP spring soil moisture and monsoon onset indices are negatively correlated (R < −0.65), whereas the SAH exhibits a significant positive correlation (R ≥ 0.70) with TP soil moisture. The monsoon onset shows a difference of 20–25 days between the early- and late-onset composites. Significant positive (negative) soil moisture anomalies persist over the TP during the early (late) onset followed by positive (negative) LH (SH) anomalies during early (late)-onset composites. The TP thermal forcing exhibited positive anomalies during the early (late)-onset composites implying significant soil moisture control over the diabatic heating, which favors vertical ascent over the eastern plateau. Such a pattern leads to an earlier formation and movement of the SAH toward the Bay of Bengal (BOB) and southwestward of the TP. Before the early and late monsoon onset composites, the SAH pentad evolution drives the lower-tropospheric westerlies/easterlies toward continental SA. In the Indian Ocean the wind shear and transition from prevailing easterlies into westerlies during the pre-onset, onset, and post-onset pentad results in strong/weak ascent affecting the onset timing over the Arabian Sea and continental SA with less influence over the BOB monsoon onset.
Significance Statement
The Tibetan Plateau heating is one of the key drivers of the Asian monsoon precipitation in the surrounding regions, which has been previously studied in detail. This study explored the Tibetan Plateau spring soil moisture’s effect on South Asian monsoon onset timing. The monsoon onset timing is calculated using changes in wind direction, atmospheric temperature, and relative precipitation magnitude. Results found that the spring soil moisture substantially affects the TP thermal heating and the SA monsoon onset timing and highlights the physical processes leading to changes in the monsoon onset timing. The inclusion of soil moisture in estimating the monsoon onset timing can provide a tangible way of improving our understanding of the monsoon and associated water resources management practices.
Abstract
The South Asian high (SAH) location and intensity are linked with the latent heating of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and Yangtze River basin. The relationship between SAH variability and its impact on South Asian monsoon (SAM) onset is rarely linked with TP soil moisture. This study uses remotely sensed soil moisture and reanalysis products to quantify the relationship between the TP spring (April–June) soil moisture with SAH and SAM onset during 1988–2008. The results show that the TP spring soil moisture and monsoon onset indices are negatively correlated (R < −0.65), whereas the SAH exhibits a significant positive correlation (R ≥ 0.70) with TP soil moisture. The monsoon onset shows a difference of 20–25 days between the early- and late-onset composites. Significant positive (negative) soil moisture anomalies persist over the TP during the early (late) onset followed by positive (negative) LH (SH) anomalies during early (late)-onset composites. The TP thermal forcing exhibited positive anomalies during the early (late)-onset composites implying significant soil moisture control over the diabatic heating, which favors vertical ascent over the eastern plateau. Such a pattern leads to an earlier formation and movement of the SAH toward the Bay of Bengal (BOB) and southwestward of the TP. Before the early and late monsoon onset composites, the SAH pentad evolution drives the lower-tropospheric westerlies/easterlies toward continental SA. In the Indian Ocean the wind shear and transition from prevailing easterlies into westerlies during the pre-onset, onset, and post-onset pentad results in strong/weak ascent affecting the onset timing over the Arabian Sea and continental SA with less influence over the BOB monsoon onset.
Significance Statement
The Tibetan Plateau heating is one of the key drivers of the Asian monsoon precipitation in the surrounding regions, which has been previously studied in detail. This study explored the Tibetan Plateau spring soil moisture’s effect on South Asian monsoon onset timing. The monsoon onset timing is calculated using changes in wind direction, atmospheric temperature, and relative precipitation magnitude. Results found that the spring soil moisture substantially affects the TP thermal heating and the SA monsoon onset timing and highlights the physical processes leading to changes in the monsoon onset timing. The inclusion of soil moisture in estimating the monsoon onset timing can provide a tangible way of improving our understanding of the monsoon and associated water resources management practices.
Abstract
The global positioning system dropwindsonde has provided thousands of high-resolution kinematic and thermodynamic soundings in and around tropical cyclones (TCs) since 1997. These data have revolutionized the understanding of TC structure, improved forecasts, and validated observations from remote sensing platforms. About 400 peer-reviewed studies on TCs using these data have been published to date. This paper reviews the history of dropwindsonde observations, changes to dropwindsonde technology since it was first used in TCs in 1982, and how the data have improved forecasting and changed our understanding of TCs.
Abstract
The global positioning system dropwindsonde has provided thousands of high-resolution kinematic and thermodynamic soundings in and around tropical cyclones (TCs) since 1997. These data have revolutionized the understanding of TC structure, improved forecasts, and validated observations from remote sensing platforms. About 400 peer-reviewed studies on TCs using these data have been published to date. This paper reviews the history of dropwindsonde observations, changes to dropwindsonde technology since it was first used in TCs in 1982, and how the data have improved forecasting and changed our understanding of TCs.
Abstract
Atmospheric science is male dominated and few students of color matriculate into the field, a trend dating back at least 50 years. UCAR/NCAR Equity and Inclusion (referred to as UNEION), which has trained nearly 200 employees, is the institution’s flagship diversity program. UNEION is central to efforts to create a welcoming workplace, engaging participants with peer-led learning to gain knowledge on diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) topics, and encouraging participants to implement these learnings through bystander intervention. Evaluation results show that UNEION 1) increases participants’ awareness of inequities, 2) encourages participants to feel responsible for DEI, and 3) teaches participants how to intervene in inappropriate situations.
Abstract
Atmospheric science is male dominated and few students of color matriculate into the field, a trend dating back at least 50 years. UCAR/NCAR Equity and Inclusion (referred to as UNEION), which has trained nearly 200 employees, is the institution’s flagship diversity program. UNEION is central to efforts to create a welcoming workplace, engaging participants with peer-led learning to gain knowledge on diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) topics, and encouraging participants to implement these learnings through bystander intervention. Evaluation results show that UNEION 1) increases participants’ awareness of inequities, 2) encourages participants to feel responsible for DEI, and 3) teaches participants how to intervene in inappropriate situations.
Abstract
On the local afternoon of 29 May 2012, a long-lived, right-moving (RM) supercell formed over northwestern Oklahoma and turned roughly southeastward. For >3 h, as it moved toward the Oklahoma City metro area, this supercell remained nontornadic and visually high-based, producing a nearly tornadic gustnado and a swath of significantly severe, sometimes giant hail up to 5 in (12.7 cm) in diameter. Meanwhile, a left-moving (LM) supercell formed over southwestern Oklahoma about 100 mi (161 km) south-southwest of the RM storm, and moved northeastward, with a rear-flank gust front that became well-defined on radar imagery as the LM storm approached southern and central parts of the metro. The authors, who had been observing the RM supercell in the field since genesis, surmised its potential future interaction with the LM storm’s trailing gust front about 1 h beforehand. We repositioned to near the gust front’s extrapolated collision point with the RM mesocyclone, in anticipation of maximized tornado potential, then witnessed a small tornado from the RM mesocyclone immediately following its interception of the boundary. Synchronized radar and photographic images of this remarkable sequence are presented and discussed in context of more recent findings on tornadic supercell/boundary interactions, with implications for operational utility.
Abstract
On the local afternoon of 29 May 2012, a long-lived, right-moving (RM) supercell formed over northwestern Oklahoma and turned roughly southeastward. For >3 h, as it moved toward the Oklahoma City metro area, this supercell remained nontornadic and visually high-based, producing a nearly tornadic gustnado and a swath of significantly severe, sometimes giant hail up to 5 in (12.7 cm) in diameter. Meanwhile, a left-moving (LM) supercell formed over southwestern Oklahoma about 100 mi (161 km) south-southwest of the RM storm, and moved northeastward, with a rear-flank gust front that became well-defined on radar imagery as the LM storm approached southern and central parts of the metro. The authors, who had been observing the RM supercell in the field since genesis, surmised its potential future interaction with the LM storm’s trailing gust front about 1 h beforehand. We repositioned to near the gust front’s extrapolated collision point with the RM mesocyclone, in anticipation of maximized tornado potential, then witnessed a small tornado from the RM mesocyclone immediately following its interception of the boundary. Synchronized radar and photographic images of this remarkable sequence are presented and discussed in context of more recent findings on tornadic supercell/boundary interactions, with implications for operational utility.
Abstract
The symmetries of the governing equations of atmospheric flows constrain the solutions. The present study applies those symmetries identified from the governing equations to the atmospheric boundary layers under relatively weak stratifications (stable and unstable). More specifically, the invariant solutions are analyzed, which conserve their forms under possible symmetry transformations of a governing–equation system. The key question is whether those invariant solutions can re–derive the known vertical profiles of both vertical fluxes and the means for the horizontal wind and the potential temperature. The mean profiles for the wind and the potential temperature in the surface layer predicted from the Monin–Obukhov theory can be recovered as invariant solutions. However, the consistent vertical fluxes both for the momentum and heat no longer remain constant with height, as assumed in the Monin–Obukhov theory, but linearly and parabolically change with height over the dynamic sublayer and the above, respectively, in stable conditions. The present study suggests that a deviation from the constancy, though observationally known to be weak, is a crucial part of the surface–layer dynamics to maintain its symmetry consistency.
Abstract
The symmetries of the governing equations of atmospheric flows constrain the solutions. The present study applies those symmetries identified from the governing equations to the atmospheric boundary layers under relatively weak stratifications (stable and unstable). More specifically, the invariant solutions are analyzed, which conserve their forms under possible symmetry transformations of a governing–equation system. The key question is whether those invariant solutions can re–derive the known vertical profiles of both vertical fluxes and the means for the horizontal wind and the potential temperature. The mean profiles for the wind and the potential temperature in the surface layer predicted from the Monin–Obukhov theory can be recovered as invariant solutions. However, the consistent vertical fluxes both for the momentum and heat no longer remain constant with height, as assumed in the Monin–Obukhov theory, but linearly and parabolically change with height over the dynamic sublayer and the above, respectively, in stable conditions. The present study suggests that a deviation from the constancy, though observationally known to be weak, is a crucial part of the surface–layer dynamics to maintain its symmetry consistency.
Abstract
This study focuses on the rainfall-producing weather systems in the southern Murray-Darling Basin (MDB), Australia. These weather systems are divided into objects: cyclones, fronts, anticyclones, warm conveyor belt (WCB) inflows, WCB ascents, potential vorticity (PV) streamers, and cut-off lows. We investigate the changes in the frequency, amplitude, and relative position of these objects as the daily and seasonal rainfall change. Days on which the rainfall is heavy, especially in winter, are characterized by more PV streamers, cut-off lows, cyclones, fronts and WCBs in the region. In contrast, dry days are characterized by more anticyclones over southeastern Australia in winter and summer.
The effect of upper-level weather objects (PV streamers and cut-off lows) on lower-level objects, and their importance in producing rainfall, is quantified using the quasi-geostrophic ω-equation and separating the vertical motion into that induced by the upper and lower levels. On heavy rainfall days in winter, PV streamers and cut-off lows force strong upward motion in the lower troposphere, promoting cyclogenesis at lower levels, forcing ascent in the WCBs, and producing rain downstream of the southern MDB. Lower-level ascent forced by upper-level objects is important for the development of heavy rainfall in both seasons, although particularly in winter.
Rainfall is attributed to individual objects. PV streamers and WCBs contribute most to the winter and summer rainfall respectively. The difference in rainfall between anomalously wet and dry years can be explained in winter by the changes in the rainfall associated with PV streamers, whereas in summer it is mostly due to a reduction in the rainfall associated with WCBs.
Abstract
This study focuses on the rainfall-producing weather systems in the southern Murray-Darling Basin (MDB), Australia. These weather systems are divided into objects: cyclones, fronts, anticyclones, warm conveyor belt (WCB) inflows, WCB ascents, potential vorticity (PV) streamers, and cut-off lows. We investigate the changes in the frequency, amplitude, and relative position of these objects as the daily and seasonal rainfall change. Days on which the rainfall is heavy, especially in winter, are characterized by more PV streamers, cut-off lows, cyclones, fronts and WCBs in the region. In contrast, dry days are characterized by more anticyclones over southeastern Australia in winter and summer.
The effect of upper-level weather objects (PV streamers and cut-off lows) on lower-level objects, and their importance in producing rainfall, is quantified using the quasi-geostrophic ω-equation and separating the vertical motion into that induced by the upper and lower levels. On heavy rainfall days in winter, PV streamers and cut-off lows force strong upward motion in the lower troposphere, promoting cyclogenesis at lower levels, forcing ascent in the WCBs, and producing rain downstream of the southern MDB. Lower-level ascent forced by upper-level objects is important for the development of heavy rainfall in both seasons, although particularly in winter.
Rainfall is attributed to individual objects. PV streamers and WCBs contribute most to the winter and summer rainfall respectively. The difference in rainfall between anomalously wet and dry years can be explained in winter by the changes in the rainfall associated with PV streamers, whereas in summer it is mostly due to a reduction in the rainfall associated with WCBs.
Abstract
Surface boundaries in supercells have been suspected of being important in the arrangement and concentration of vorticity for the development and intensification of tornadoes, but there has been little attention given to the effects of the underlying surface roughness on their behavior. This study investigates the impact of surface drag on the structure and evolution of these boundaries, their associated distribution of near-surface vorticity, and tornadogenesis and maintenance. Comparisons between idealized simulations without and with drag introduced in the mature stage of the storm prior to tornadogenesis reveal that the inclusion of surface drag substantially alters the low-level structure, particularly with respect to the number, location, and intensity of surface convergence boundaries. Substantial drag-generated horizontal vorticity induces rotor structures near the surface associated with the convergence boundaries in both the forward and rear flanks of the storm. Stretching of horizontal vorticity and subsequent tilting into the vertical along the convergence boundaries lead to elongated positive vertical vorticity sheets on the ascending branch of the rotors and the opposite on the descending branch. The larger near-surface pressure deficit associated with the faster development of the near-surface cyclone when drag is active creates a downward dynamic vertical pressure gradient force that suppresses vertical growth, leading to a weaker and wider tornado detached from the surrounding convergence boundaries. A conceptual model of the low-level structure of the tornadic supercell is presented that focuses on the contribution of surface drag, with the aim of adding more insight and complexity to previous conceptual models.
Significance Statement
Tornado development is sensitive to near-surface processes, including those associated with front-like boundaries between regions of airflow within the parent storm. However, observations and theory are insufficient to understand these phenomena, and numerical simulation remains vital. In our simulations, we find that a change in a parameter that controls how much the near-surface winds are reduced by friction (or drag) can substantially alter the storm behavior and tornado potential. We investigate how surface drag affects the low-level storm structure, the distribution of regions of near-surface rotation, and the development of tornadoes within the simulation. Our results provide insight into the role of surface drag and lead to an improved conceptual model of the near-surface structure of a tornadic storm.
Abstract
Surface boundaries in supercells have been suspected of being important in the arrangement and concentration of vorticity for the development and intensification of tornadoes, but there has been little attention given to the effects of the underlying surface roughness on their behavior. This study investigates the impact of surface drag on the structure and evolution of these boundaries, their associated distribution of near-surface vorticity, and tornadogenesis and maintenance. Comparisons between idealized simulations without and with drag introduced in the mature stage of the storm prior to tornadogenesis reveal that the inclusion of surface drag substantially alters the low-level structure, particularly with respect to the number, location, and intensity of surface convergence boundaries. Substantial drag-generated horizontal vorticity induces rotor structures near the surface associated with the convergence boundaries in both the forward and rear flanks of the storm. Stretching of horizontal vorticity and subsequent tilting into the vertical along the convergence boundaries lead to elongated positive vertical vorticity sheets on the ascending branch of the rotors and the opposite on the descending branch. The larger near-surface pressure deficit associated with the faster development of the near-surface cyclone when drag is active creates a downward dynamic vertical pressure gradient force that suppresses vertical growth, leading to a weaker and wider tornado detached from the surrounding convergence boundaries. A conceptual model of the low-level structure of the tornadic supercell is presented that focuses on the contribution of surface drag, with the aim of adding more insight and complexity to previous conceptual models.
Significance Statement
Tornado development is sensitive to near-surface processes, including those associated with front-like boundaries between regions of airflow within the parent storm. However, observations and theory are insufficient to understand these phenomena, and numerical simulation remains vital. In our simulations, we find that a change in a parameter that controls how much the near-surface winds are reduced by friction (or drag) can substantially alter the storm behavior and tornado potential. We investigate how surface drag affects the low-level storm structure, the distribution of regions of near-surface rotation, and the development of tornadoes within the simulation. Our results provide insight into the role of surface drag and lead to an improved conceptual model of the near-surface structure of a tornadic storm.
Abstract
This study investigates the relative roles of sea surface temperature-forced climate changes and weather variability in driving the observed eastward shift of Atlantic hurricane tracks over the period from 1970 to 2021. A ten-member initial condition ensemble with a ~25km horizontal resolution tropical cyclone permitting atmospheric model (GFDL AM2.5-C360) with identical sea surface temperature and radiative forcing time series was analyzed in conjunction with historical hurricane track observations. While a frequency increase was recovered by all the simulations, the observed multidecadal eastward shift in tracks was not robust across the ensemble members, indicating that it included a substantial contribution from weather-scale variability. A statistical model was developed to simulate expected storm tracks based on genesis location and steering flow, and it was used to conduct experiments testing the roles of changing genesis location and changing steering flow in producing the multidecadal weather-driven shifts in storm tracks. These experiments indicated that shifts in genesis location were a substantially larger driver of these multidecadal track changes than changes in steering flow. The substantial impact of weather on tracks indicates that there may be limited predictability for multidecadal track changes like those observed, though basinwide frequency has greater potential for prediction. Additionally, understanding changes in genesis location appears essential to understanding changes in track location.
Abstract
This study investigates the relative roles of sea surface temperature-forced climate changes and weather variability in driving the observed eastward shift of Atlantic hurricane tracks over the period from 1970 to 2021. A ten-member initial condition ensemble with a ~25km horizontal resolution tropical cyclone permitting atmospheric model (GFDL AM2.5-C360) with identical sea surface temperature and radiative forcing time series was analyzed in conjunction with historical hurricane track observations. While a frequency increase was recovered by all the simulations, the observed multidecadal eastward shift in tracks was not robust across the ensemble members, indicating that it included a substantial contribution from weather-scale variability. A statistical model was developed to simulate expected storm tracks based on genesis location and steering flow, and it was used to conduct experiments testing the roles of changing genesis location and changing steering flow in producing the multidecadal weather-driven shifts in storm tracks. These experiments indicated that shifts in genesis location were a substantially larger driver of these multidecadal track changes than changes in steering flow. The substantial impact of weather on tracks indicates that there may be limited predictability for multidecadal track changes like those observed, though basinwide frequency has greater potential for prediction. Additionally, understanding changes in genesis location appears essential to understanding changes in track location.
Abstract
The attribution of 2022’s high temperatures in Japan to human-induced climate change exhibits significant regional variability, with FARs of 0.33–1, influenced by large-scale wind changes and regional topography.
Abstract
The attribution of 2022’s high temperatures in Japan to human-induced climate change exhibits significant regional variability, with FARs of 0.33–1, influenced by large-scale wind changes and regional topography.
