Abstract
Coupled climate model simulations designed to isolate the effects of Arctic sea-ice loss often apply artificial heating, either directly to the ice or through modification of the surface albedo, to constrain sea ice in the absence of other forcings. Recent work has shown that this approach may lead to an overestimation of the climate response to sea-ice loss. In this study, we assess the spurious impacts of ice-constraining methods on the climate of an idealised aquaplanet general circulation model (GCM) with thermodynamic sea ice. The true effect of sea-ice loss in this model is isolated by inducing ice loss through reduction of the freezing point of water, which does not require additional energy input. We compare results from freezing point modification experiments with experiments where sea-ice loss is induced using traditional ice-constraining methods, and confirm the result of previous work that traditional methods induce spurious additional warming. Furthermore, additional warming leads to an overestimation of the circulation response to sea-ice loss, which involves a weakening of the zonal wind and storm track activity in midlatitudes. Our results suggest that coupled model simulations with constrained sea ice should be treated with caution, especially in boreal summer, where the true effect of sea-ice loss is weakest but we find the largest spurious response. Given that our results may be sensitive to the simplicity of the model we use, we suggest that devising methods to quantify the spurious effects of ice-constraining methods in more sophisticated models should be an urgent priority for future work.
Abstract
Coupled climate model simulations designed to isolate the effects of Arctic sea-ice loss often apply artificial heating, either directly to the ice or through modification of the surface albedo, to constrain sea ice in the absence of other forcings. Recent work has shown that this approach may lead to an overestimation of the climate response to sea-ice loss. In this study, we assess the spurious impacts of ice-constraining methods on the climate of an idealised aquaplanet general circulation model (GCM) with thermodynamic sea ice. The true effect of sea-ice loss in this model is isolated by inducing ice loss through reduction of the freezing point of water, which does not require additional energy input. We compare results from freezing point modification experiments with experiments where sea-ice loss is induced using traditional ice-constraining methods, and confirm the result of previous work that traditional methods induce spurious additional warming. Furthermore, additional warming leads to an overestimation of the circulation response to sea-ice loss, which involves a weakening of the zonal wind and storm track activity in midlatitudes. Our results suggest that coupled model simulations with constrained sea ice should be treated with caution, especially in boreal summer, where the true effect of sea-ice loss is weakest but we find the largest spurious response. Given that our results may be sensitive to the simplicity of the model we use, we suggest that devising methods to quantify the spurious effects of ice-constraining methods in more sophisticated models should be an urgent priority for future work.
Abstract
This study investigates how entrainment’s diluting effect on cumulonimbus updraft buoyancy is affected by the temperature of the troposphere, which is expected to increase by the end of the century. A parcel model framework is constructed that allows for independent variations in the temperature (T), the entrainment rate ε, the free-tropospheric relative humidity (RH), and the convective available potential energy (CAPE). Using this framework, dilution of buoyancy is evaluated with T and RH independently varied, and with CAPE either held constant or increased with temperature. When CAPE is held constant, buoyancy decreases as T increases, with parcels in warmer environments realizing substantially smaller fractions of their CAPE as kinetic energy (KE). This occurs because the increased moisture difference between an updraft and its surroundings at warmer temperatures drives greater updraft dilution. Similar results are found in midlatitude and tropical conditions when CAPE is increased with temperature. With the expected 6-7 % increase in CAPE per degree K of warming, KE only increases at 2-4 % per degree in narrow updrafts but tracks more closely with CAPE at 4-6 % in wider updrafts. Interestingly, the rate of increase in the KE with T becomes larger than that of CAPE when the later quantity increases at more than 10 % per K. These findings emphasize the importance of considering entrainment in studies of moist convection’s response to climate change, as the entrainment-driven dilution of buoyancy may partially counteract the influence of increases in CAPE on updraft intensity.
Abstract
This study investigates how entrainment’s diluting effect on cumulonimbus updraft buoyancy is affected by the temperature of the troposphere, which is expected to increase by the end of the century. A parcel model framework is constructed that allows for independent variations in the temperature (T), the entrainment rate ε, the free-tropospheric relative humidity (RH), and the convective available potential energy (CAPE). Using this framework, dilution of buoyancy is evaluated with T and RH independently varied, and with CAPE either held constant or increased with temperature. When CAPE is held constant, buoyancy decreases as T increases, with parcels in warmer environments realizing substantially smaller fractions of their CAPE as kinetic energy (KE). This occurs because the increased moisture difference between an updraft and its surroundings at warmer temperatures drives greater updraft dilution. Similar results are found in midlatitude and tropical conditions when CAPE is increased with temperature. With the expected 6-7 % increase in CAPE per degree K of warming, KE only increases at 2-4 % per degree in narrow updrafts but tracks more closely with CAPE at 4-6 % in wider updrafts. Interestingly, the rate of increase in the KE with T becomes larger than that of CAPE when the later quantity increases at more than 10 % per K. These findings emphasize the importance of considering entrainment in studies of moist convection’s response to climate change, as the entrainment-driven dilution of buoyancy may partially counteract the influence of increases in CAPE on updraft intensity.
Abstract
We describe the development of the wave component in the first global-scale coupled operational forecast system using the Unified Forecasting System (UFS) at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), part of the US National Weather Service (NWS) operational forecasting suite. The operational implementation of the atmosphere-wave coupled Global Ensemble Forecast System version 12 (GEFSv12) in September 2020 was a critical step in NOAA’s transition to the broader community-based UFS framework. GEFSv12 represents a significant advancement, extending forecast ranges and empowering the NWS to deliver advanced weather predictions with extended lead times for high-impact events. The integration of a coupled wave component with higher spatial and temporal resolution and optimized physics parameterizations notably enhanced forecast skill and predictability, particularly benefiting winter storm predictions of wave heights and peak wave periods. This successful endeavor encountered challenges that were addressed by the simultaneous development of new features that enhanced wave model forecast skill and product quality and facilitated by a multidisciplinary team collaborating with NOAA’s operational forecasting centers. The GEFSv12 upgrade marks a pivotal shift in NOAA’s global forecasting capabilities, setting a new standard in wave prediction. We also describe the coupled GEFSv12-Wave component impacts on NOAA operational forecasts, and ongoing experimental enhancements, which altogether represent a substantial contribution to NOAA’s transition to the fully-coupled UFS framework.
Abstract
We describe the development of the wave component in the first global-scale coupled operational forecast system using the Unified Forecasting System (UFS) at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), part of the US National Weather Service (NWS) operational forecasting suite. The operational implementation of the atmosphere-wave coupled Global Ensemble Forecast System version 12 (GEFSv12) in September 2020 was a critical step in NOAA’s transition to the broader community-based UFS framework. GEFSv12 represents a significant advancement, extending forecast ranges and empowering the NWS to deliver advanced weather predictions with extended lead times for high-impact events. The integration of a coupled wave component with higher spatial and temporal resolution and optimized physics parameterizations notably enhanced forecast skill and predictability, particularly benefiting winter storm predictions of wave heights and peak wave periods. This successful endeavor encountered challenges that were addressed by the simultaneous development of new features that enhanced wave model forecast skill and product quality and facilitated by a multidisciplinary team collaborating with NOAA’s operational forecasting centers. The GEFSv12 upgrade marks a pivotal shift in NOAA’s global forecasting capabilities, setting a new standard in wave prediction. We also describe the coupled GEFSv12-Wave component impacts on NOAA operational forecasts, and ongoing experimental enhancements, which altogether represent a substantial contribution to NOAA’s transition to the fully-coupled UFS framework.
Abstract
Reanalysis proximity vertical profile attributes associated with long-track tornadoes [LTTs; pathlength ≥48 km (30 mi)] and short-track tornadoes [STTs; pathlengths <48 km (30 mi)] for a total of 48 212 tornadoes with pathlengths ≥0.16 km (0.1 mi) from 1979–2022 in the United States were examined. Both longer- and shorter-track tornadoes were associated with vast ranges of mixed-layer convective available potential energy, together with relatively low mixed-layer lifted condensation level heights and minimal convective inhibition. A large range of 500–9000-m wind speeds and bulk wind differences, 500–3000-m streamwise vorticities, storm-relative helicities, and storm-relative wind speeds were found for STTs. In stark contrast, LTTs only occurred when these kinematic attributes were larger in amplitude through the troposphere, supporting previously documented associations between observed longer-track tornado pathlengths and faster-propagating parent storms. A novel parameter, heavily weighted by kinematic parameters and lightly weighted by thermodynamic parameters, outperformed the significant tornado parameter in differentiating environments that were more supportive of both LTTs as well as tornadoes rated <EF5. The high correlation values R2 = 0.79 between tornado pathlength and Bunkers’ approximate tornado duration (pathlength / VBunkers) calls for improved understanding of mesocyclone periodicities, which impact tornado longevity, to improve tornado pathlength diagnoses and forecasts. Pragmatically, diagnosing LTT environments using vertical profile attributes, perhaps, is not so much a problem of determining when there might be higher expectations for LTTs, but rather a problem of when there might be lower expectations for LTTs, e.g., weaker kinematic attributes in the lower troposphere.
Abstract
Reanalysis proximity vertical profile attributes associated with long-track tornadoes [LTTs; pathlength ≥48 km (30 mi)] and short-track tornadoes [STTs; pathlengths <48 km (30 mi)] for a total of 48 212 tornadoes with pathlengths ≥0.16 km (0.1 mi) from 1979–2022 in the United States were examined. Both longer- and shorter-track tornadoes were associated with vast ranges of mixed-layer convective available potential energy, together with relatively low mixed-layer lifted condensation level heights and minimal convective inhibition. A large range of 500–9000-m wind speeds and bulk wind differences, 500–3000-m streamwise vorticities, storm-relative helicities, and storm-relative wind speeds were found for STTs. In stark contrast, LTTs only occurred when these kinematic attributes were larger in amplitude through the troposphere, supporting previously documented associations between observed longer-track tornado pathlengths and faster-propagating parent storms. A novel parameter, heavily weighted by kinematic parameters and lightly weighted by thermodynamic parameters, outperformed the significant tornado parameter in differentiating environments that were more supportive of both LTTs as well as tornadoes rated <EF5. The high correlation values R2 = 0.79 between tornado pathlength and Bunkers’ approximate tornado duration (pathlength / VBunkers) calls for improved understanding of mesocyclone periodicities, which impact tornado longevity, to improve tornado pathlength diagnoses and forecasts. Pragmatically, diagnosing LTT environments using vertical profile attributes, perhaps, is not so much a problem of determining when there might be higher expectations for LTTs, but rather a problem of when there might be lower expectations for LTTs, e.g., weaker kinematic attributes in the lower troposphere.
Abstract
This work tests a methodology for estimating the ocean stratification gradient using remotely sensed, high temporal and spatial resolution field measurements of internal wave propagation speeds. The internal wave (IW) speeds were calculated from IW tracks observed using a shore-based, X-band marine radar deployed at a field site on the south-central coast of California. An inverse model, based on the work of Kar and Guha (2020), that utilizes the linear internal wave dispersion relation assuming a constant vertical density gradient is the basis for the inverse model. This allows the vertical gradient of density to be expressed as a function of the internal wave phase speed, local water depth, and a background average density. The inputs to the algorithm are the known cross-shore bathymetry, the background ocean density, and the remotely-sensed cross-shore profiles of IW speed. The estimated density gradients are then compared to the synchronously measured vertical density profiles collected from an in situ instrument array. The results show a very good agreement offshore in deeper water (∼50m-30m) but more significant discrepancies in shallow water (20-10m) closer to shore. In addition, a sensitivity analysis is conducted that relates errors in measured speeds to errors in the estimated density gradients.
Abstract
This work tests a methodology for estimating the ocean stratification gradient using remotely sensed, high temporal and spatial resolution field measurements of internal wave propagation speeds. The internal wave (IW) speeds were calculated from IW tracks observed using a shore-based, X-band marine radar deployed at a field site on the south-central coast of California. An inverse model, based on the work of Kar and Guha (2020), that utilizes the linear internal wave dispersion relation assuming a constant vertical density gradient is the basis for the inverse model. This allows the vertical gradient of density to be expressed as a function of the internal wave phase speed, local water depth, and a background average density. The inputs to the algorithm are the known cross-shore bathymetry, the background ocean density, and the remotely-sensed cross-shore profiles of IW speed. The estimated density gradients are then compared to the synchronously measured vertical density profiles collected from an in situ instrument array. The results show a very good agreement offshore in deeper water (∼50m-30m) but more significant discrepancies in shallow water (20-10m) closer to shore. In addition, a sensitivity analysis is conducted that relates errors in measured speeds to errors in the estimated density gradients.
Abstract
In situ observations from 13 sites located over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) are used to evaluate evapotranspiration (ET) products, including remote sensing-based, land surface modeled, and reanalysis products. It is found that the Global Land Surface Satellite (GLASS) product, the Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM) product, and the simulations by the Community Land Model - Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (CLM-BGCDV) are the top-rank products measured by the Percentage bias, Root Mean Square Error, and Correlation Coefficient against in-situ observations. The evaluated data are then used to examine the consistency in spatial and temporal variability of summer ET and its controlling factors on the TP and the Three-River Sources Region (TRSR). All products show consistently that precipitation in central semiarid part of TP is the dominant factor influencing summer ET, while air temperature plays a certain role in the southeastern and eastern TP. Uncertainties exist in western TP, possibly due to the lack of observations or gaps in the satellite data. Some suggestions for improving ET product development based on models and satellite retrievals, particularly for the cold and complex surface of the TP are also given.
Abstract
In situ observations from 13 sites located over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) are used to evaluate evapotranspiration (ET) products, including remote sensing-based, land surface modeled, and reanalysis products. It is found that the Global Land Surface Satellite (GLASS) product, the Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM) product, and the simulations by the Community Land Model - Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (CLM-BGCDV) are the top-rank products measured by the Percentage bias, Root Mean Square Error, and Correlation Coefficient against in-situ observations. The evaluated data are then used to examine the consistency in spatial and temporal variability of summer ET and its controlling factors on the TP and the Three-River Sources Region (TRSR). All products show consistently that precipitation in central semiarid part of TP is the dominant factor influencing summer ET, while air temperature plays a certain role in the southeastern and eastern TP. Uncertainties exist in western TP, possibly due to the lack of observations or gaps in the satellite data. Some suggestions for improving ET product development based on models and satellite retrievals, particularly for the cold and complex surface of the TP are also given.
Abstract
Tides are often non-stationary due to non-astronomical influences. Investigating variable tidal properties implies a tradeoff between separating adjacent frequencies (using long analysis windows) and resolving their time variations (short windows). Previous continuous wavelet transform (CWT) tidal methods resolved tidal species. Here, we present CWT_Multi, a Matlab code that: a) uses CWT linearity (via the “Response Coefficient Method”) to implement super-resolution (Munk and Hasselman 1964); b) provides a Munk-Hasselman constituent-selection criterion; and c) introduces an objective, time-variable form of inference (“dynamic inference”) based on time-varying data properties. CWT_Multi resolves tidal species on time-scales of days and multiple constituents per species with fortnightly filters. It outputs astronomical phase-lags and admittances, analyzes multiple records, and provides power spectra of the signal(s), residual(s) and reconstruction(s), confidence limits, and signal-to-noise ratios. Artificial data and water-levels from the Lower Columbia River Estuary (LCRE) and San Francisco Bay Delta (SFBD) are used to test CWT_Multi and compare it to harmonic analysis programs NS_Tide and UTide. CWT_Multi provides superior reconstruction, detiding, dynamic analysis utility, and time-resolution of constituents (but with broader confidence limits). Dynamic inference resolves closely spaced constituents (like K1, S1, and P1) on fortnightly time scales, quantifying impacts of diel power-peaking (with a 24-hour period, like S1) on water levels in the LCRE. CWT_Multi also helps quantify impacts of high flows and a salt-barrier closing on tidal properties in the SFBD. On the other hand, CWT_Multi does not excel at prediction, and results depend on analysis details, as for any method applied to non-stationary data.
Abstract
Tides are often non-stationary due to non-astronomical influences. Investigating variable tidal properties implies a tradeoff between separating adjacent frequencies (using long analysis windows) and resolving their time variations (short windows). Previous continuous wavelet transform (CWT) tidal methods resolved tidal species. Here, we present CWT_Multi, a Matlab code that: a) uses CWT linearity (via the “Response Coefficient Method”) to implement super-resolution (Munk and Hasselman 1964); b) provides a Munk-Hasselman constituent-selection criterion; and c) introduces an objective, time-variable form of inference (“dynamic inference”) based on time-varying data properties. CWT_Multi resolves tidal species on time-scales of days and multiple constituents per species with fortnightly filters. It outputs astronomical phase-lags and admittances, analyzes multiple records, and provides power spectra of the signal(s), residual(s) and reconstruction(s), confidence limits, and signal-to-noise ratios. Artificial data and water-levels from the Lower Columbia River Estuary (LCRE) and San Francisco Bay Delta (SFBD) are used to test CWT_Multi and compare it to harmonic analysis programs NS_Tide and UTide. CWT_Multi provides superior reconstruction, detiding, dynamic analysis utility, and time-resolution of constituents (but with broader confidence limits). Dynamic inference resolves closely spaced constituents (like K1, S1, and P1) on fortnightly time scales, quantifying impacts of diel power-peaking (with a 24-hour period, like S1) on water levels in the LCRE. CWT_Multi also helps quantify impacts of high flows and a salt-barrier closing on tidal properties in the SFBD. On the other hand, CWT_Multi does not excel at prediction, and results depend on analysis details, as for any method applied to non-stationary data.
Abstract
Shallow landslides are often triggered during rainfall events, which can increase subsurface soil water pressure and destabilize hillslopes. The likelihood of regional shallow landslide initiation is often assessed through a comparison of rainfall intensity and duration to pre-established thresholds. While informative for landslide warning, this exclusive focus on rainfall exceeding thresholds does not consider the meteorological conditions producing the rainfall. Here, we ask the question, are there common meteorological characteristics that lead to landslide triggering precipitation? We develop a catalog of 18 post-1995 widespread, impactful shallow landslide events occurring within 13 storms across California, USA, where initiation time could be constrained to a <=6-hour window. We examine storm characteristics during the landslide initiation window using atmospheric reanalysis products, radar observations, and quantitative precipitation estimates. We find that, while there are some common atmospheric characteristics across landslide events, they can occur under a range of atmospheric conditions. For example, all northern California landslide events assessed are associated with moderate to strong atmospheric rivers (ARs) while southern California landslides feature non-AR to strong AR conditions. The storm events evaluated herein share many characteristics of hydrologically important storms in California that did not necessarily result in landslides, thus atmospheric characteristics alone may not be sufficient to determine whether landslides will occur. However, documenting the characteristics of landslide-triggering storms defines the conditions under which landslides tend to occur, provides analog events that can be useful in forecast applications, helps to define future research directions relating atmospheric conditions and landslides, and supports interdisciplinary research efforts.
Abstract
Shallow landslides are often triggered during rainfall events, which can increase subsurface soil water pressure and destabilize hillslopes. The likelihood of regional shallow landslide initiation is often assessed through a comparison of rainfall intensity and duration to pre-established thresholds. While informative for landslide warning, this exclusive focus on rainfall exceeding thresholds does not consider the meteorological conditions producing the rainfall. Here, we ask the question, are there common meteorological characteristics that lead to landslide triggering precipitation? We develop a catalog of 18 post-1995 widespread, impactful shallow landslide events occurring within 13 storms across California, USA, where initiation time could be constrained to a <=6-hour window. We examine storm characteristics during the landslide initiation window using atmospheric reanalysis products, radar observations, and quantitative precipitation estimates. We find that, while there are some common atmospheric characteristics across landslide events, they can occur under a range of atmospheric conditions. For example, all northern California landslide events assessed are associated with moderate to strong atmospheric rivers (ARs) while southern California landslides feature non-AR to strong AR conditions. The storm events evaluated herein share many characteristics of hydrologically important storms in California that did not necessarily result in landslides, thus atmospheric characteristics alone may not be sufficient to determine whether landslides will occur. However, documenting the characteristics of landslide-triggering storms defines the conditions under which landslides tend to occur, provides analog events that can be useful in forecast applications, helps to define future research directions relating atmospheric conditions and landslides, and supports interdisciplinary research efforts.
Abstract
A critical issue is determining the factors that control the year-to-year variability in precipitation over Southern Asia. In this study, we employ a cyclo-stationary linear inverse model (CS-LIM) to quantify the relative contribution of tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) to the interannual variability of the Asian monsoon, especially Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR). Through a series of CS-LIM experiments, we isolate the impacts of the direct forcing from Pacific SSTAs, Indian Ocean SSTAs, and their interaction on Asian monsoon rainfall variability. Our results reveal distinct patterns of influence with the direct forcing from the Pacific (Indian) Ocean tending to enhance (reduce) the magnitude of precipitation variability, while the Indo-Pacific interaction acts to strongly damp the variability of Asian monsoon precipitation, especially over India. We further investigate these specific impacts on ISMR by analyzing the relationship between tropical Indo-Pacific SSTAs and the leading three empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) of ISMR. The results from our CS-LIM experiments indicate that the direct forcing from ENSO enhances variability of the first and third EOFs, while the Indian Ocean SSTA opposes ENSO’s effects, which is consistent with previous studies. Our new results show that the tropical Indo-Pacific interaction strongly damps ISMR variability, which is due to the ENSO-induced Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) opposing the direct impacts from ENSO on ISMR. Additionally, reduced ENSO amplitude and duration associated with the Indo-Pacific interaction may also contribute to the damping effect on ISMR, but this requires further study to understand the relevant mechanisms.
Abstract
A critical issue is determining the factors that control the year-to-year variability in precipitation over Southern Asia. In this study, we employ a cyclo-stationary linear inverse model (CS-LIM) to quantify the relative contribution of tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) to the interannual variability of the Asian monsoon, especially Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR). Through a series of CS-LIM experiments, we isolate the impacts of the direct forcing from Pacific SSTAs, Indian Ocean SSTAs, and their interaction on Asian monsoon rainfall variability. Our results reveal distinct patterns of influence with the direct forcing from the Pacific (Indian) Ocean tending to enhance (reduce) the magnitude of precipitation variability, while the Indo-Pacific interaction acts to strongly damp the variability of Asian monsoon precipitation, especially over India. We further investigate these specific impacts on ISMR by analyzing the relationship between tropical Indo-Pacific SSTAs and the leading three empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) of ISMR. The results from our CS-LIM experiments indicate that the direct forcing from ENSO enhances variability of the first and third EOFs, while the Indian Ocean SSTA opposes ENSO’s effects, which is consistent with previous studies. Our new results show that the tropical Indo-Pacific interaction strongly damps ISMR variability, which is due to the ENSO-induced Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) opposing the direct impacts from ENSO on ISMR. Additionally, reduced ENSO amplitude and duration associated with the Indo-Pacific interaction may also contribute to the damping effect on ISMR, but this requires further study to understand the relevant mechanisms.
Abstract
Five cold-air outbreaks are investigated with aircraft offshore of continental northeast America. Flight paths aligned with the cloud-layer flow from January through March span cloud-top temperatures of −5 to −12 °C, in situ liquid water paths of up to 500 g m−2, while in situ cloud droplet number concentrations exceeding 500 cm−3 maintain effective radii below 10 µm. Rimed ice is detected in the 4 colder cases within the first cloud pass. After further fetch, ice particle number concentrations reaching 2.5 L−1 support an interpretation that secondary ice production is occurring. Rime-splintering is clearly evident, with dendritic growth increasing ice water contents within deeper clouds with colder cloud-top temperatures. Buoyancy fluxes reach 400-600 W m−2 near the Gulf Stream’s western edge, with 1-second updrafts reaching 5 m s−1 supporting closely-spaced convective cells. Near-surface rainfall rates of the 3 more intense cold-air outbreaks are a maximum near the Gulf Stream’s eastern edge, just before the clouds transition to more open-celled structures. The milder 2 cold-air outbreaks transition to lower-albedo cumulus with little or no precipitation. The clouds thin through cloud-top entrainment.
Abstract
Five cold-air outbreaks are investigated with aircraft offshore of continental northeast America. Flight paths aligned with the cloud-layer flow from January through March span cloud-top temperatures of −5 to −12 °C, in situ liquid water paths of up to 500 g m−2, while in situ cloud droplet number concentrations exceeding 500 cm−3 maintain effective radii below 10 µm. Rimed ice is detected in the 4 colder cases within the first cloud pass. After further fetch, ice particle number concentrations reaching 2.5 L−1 support an interpretation that secondary ice production is occurring. Rime-splintering is clearly evident, with dendritic growth increasing ice water contents within deeper clouds with colder cloud-top temperatures. Buoyancy fluxes reach 400-600 W m−2 near the Gulf Stream’s western edge, with 1-second updrafts reaching 5 m s−1 supporting closely-spaced convective cells. Near-surface rainfall rates of the 3 more intense cold-air outbreaks are a maximum near the Gulf Stream’s eastern edge, just before the clouds transition to more open-celled structures. The milder 2 cold-air outbreaks transition to lower-albedo cumulus with little or no precipitation. The clouds thin through cloud-top entrainment.
