Browse

Carlos J. Martinez
,
Debanjana Das
,
Emma Frances Bloomfield
,
James D. Abraham
,
John A. Knox
,
Ricardo Simmonds
,
Douglas C. Hilderbrand
,
Jason Giovannettone
,
Arvin M. Gouw
, and
Abhishek RoyChowdhury

Abstract

Climate change is a global existential threat with far-reaching implications for natural ecosystems, biodiversity, and human societies. Adapting to and mitigating climate change requires global cooperation and participation from all mindsets and belief systems, including the traditionally Western Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise (WWCE), faith-based understandings (FBUs), and Indigenous Knowledges (IKs). Epistemological differences and language barriers between knowledges, and the historical marginalization and exploitation of IKs by Western ideologies and some FBUs make co-production and relationship-building challenging. Acknowledging their historical tensions and distinctions, there is meaningful overlap between the WWCE, FBUs, and IKs on environmental stewardship, justice, and mental health. This article highlights three themes at the intersection of FBUs, IKs, and environmentalism: 1) increasing faith-based and Indigenous community resilience to weather extremes, 2) developing K-12 and collegiate weather, water, and climate education that weaves FBUs and IKs, and 3) increasing communication flows between weather, water, and climate science, and faith-based and Indigenous communities. These initiatives aim to foster relationships and trust between the WWCE, faith-based, and Indigenous communities, transform the WWCE into a multi-knowledge enterprise, and promote a climate-resilient society. The American Meteorological Society’s Committee on Spirituality, Multifaith Outreach, and Science (COSMOS) plays a pivotal role in facilitating dialogue and collaboration on these themes while acknowledging distinctions and historical tensions between FBUs, IKs, and the WWCE. Collaborative efforts between the WWCE, faith-based, and Indigenous communities hold immense potential for addressing climate challenges, fostering resilience, and building a more inclusive and sustainable future grounded in mutual respect and understanding.

Open access
Leif M. Swenson
and
Paul A. Ullrich

Abstract

The likely changes to precipitation seasonality with warming are both impactful and not well understood. This work aims to describe areas that experience similar changes to seasonal precipitation irrespective of the original underlying precipitation seasonality. We train a Self-Organizing Map on the difference between the seasonal cycle of precipitation in the past and in a high warming future climate as represented by the Community Earth System Model version 2 to create regions with similar changes in precipitation seasonality. This method is applied separately over land and ocean surfaces because of the differing processes leading to precipitation over each. This method indicates that future changes in seasonal precipitation are most varied in the tropics because of a southward shift in the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone. The seasonal shifts found over midlatitude oceans indicate a poleward shift in atmospheric river activity. We find a correspondence between certain land-based precipitation changes and Köppen climate classification. The seasonality of large-scale and convective precipitation is examined for each region. The relationship between the seasonal changes to precipitation and associated atmospheric processes are discussed. These processes include: atmospheric rivers, the inter-tropical convergence zone, tropical cyclones, and monsoons.

Restricted access
Laura Thomas-Walters
,
Matthew H. Goldberg
,
Sanguk Lee
,
Aidan Lyde
,
Seth A. Rosenthal
, and
Anthony Leiserowitz

Abstract

Extreme weather, including heat waves, poses a significant threat to ecosystems and human health. As global temperatures continue to rise, the frequency and severity of heat waves will increase. Because of this, communicating heat-related risks to the public is increasingly important. One commonly used communication tool is the Climate Shift Index (CSI), which establishes how much more likely an extreme weather event, such as a heat wave, has been made by climate change. To test the impact of the CSI on people’s understanding of the links between climate change and extreme weather, we conducted an experiment informing 3902 American adults that climate change made the July 2023 heat wave in the United States at least 5 times more likely. In addition to this standard CSI wording and two control messages, we also explored the effectiveness of reframing magnitude as a percentage and whether mechanistic and attribution explanations of the relationship between climate change and heat waves further increase understanding. All treatments increased the belief that climate change made the July 2023 heat wave more likely and is making heat waves in general more likely as well. Additionally, we found that expressing the magnitude as a percentage was more effective than the standard CSI framing. We also found that just talking about the heat wave, without mentioning climate change, was enough to change beliefs.

Open access
D. L. Suhas
and
William R. Boos

Abstract

Synoptic-scale vortices known as monsoon low pressure systems (LPS) frequently produce intense precipitation and hydrological disasters in South Asia, so accurately forecasting LPS genesis is crucial for improving disaster preparedness and response. However, the accuracy of LPS genesis forecasts by numerical weather prediction models has remained unknown. Here, we evaluate the performance of two global ensemble models—the U.S. Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) and the Ensemble Prediction System of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)—in predicting LPS genesis during the years 2021–2022. The GEFS successfully predicted about half the observed LPS genesis events one to two days in advance; the ECMWF model captured an additional 10% of observed genesis events. Both models had a False Alarm Ratio (FAR) around 50% for one- to two-day lead times. In both ensembles, the control run typically exhibited a higher probability of detection (POD) of observed events and a lower FAR compared to the perturbed ensemble members. However, a consensus forecast, in which genesis is predicted when at least 20% of ensemble members forecast LPS formation, had POD values surpassing that of the control run for all lead times. Moreover, probabilistic predictions of genesis over the Bay of Bengal, where most LPS form, were skillful, with the fraction of ensemble members predicting LPS formation over a 5-day lead time approximating the observed frequency of genesis, without any adjustment or bias-correction.

Restricted access
Zoey Rosen
,
Marilee Long
,
Andrea Schumacher
,
Mark DeMaria
, and
Alan Brammer

Abstract

Map graphics are often used for hazard risk communication, layered with numerical, verbal, and visual information to describe an uncertain threat. In the hurricane context, graphics are used to communicate the probability of different threats over a forecasting period. While hurricane graphics have been studied in the past, they have not been designed with colorblind-friendly accessibility and localization in mind. This study presents the results of a mixed-method study, testing the perceptions of different color schemes and map overlays on a wind exceedance map graphic with samples of experts (emergency managers and meteorologists) and the public. Nineteen experts from Florida and Louisiana were interviewed about their preferences for and risk perceptions of the design elements of the new wind exceedance graphic. The graphic prototypes were also tested using a public sample (n = 624) from Florida and Louisiana to study participants’ design preferences and risk perceptions. Both expert and public samples preferred a yellow-to-red scheme, though experts thought the yellow-to-red scheme presented the hazard as riskier and the public thought the reds-only scheme was riskier. Experts and the public preferred a map graphic with overlays; they scored a map graphic with overlays as riskier than a version without overlays. Understanding the connection between color scheme preference and risk perception for both experts and the public has important implications on risk communication as new graphics are designed. The conclusion of this study provides avenues for future research for experts who want to apply universal design aspects into hurricane graphics.

Significance Statement

This study investigates user preferences and risk perceptions for a new wind exceedance hurricane graphic designed with universal design principles. Experts (emergency managers and meteorologists) and the public from Florida and Louisiana participated in a mixed-method study, capturing qualitatively and quantitatively how a yellow-to-red and reds-only color scheme, as well as interstate or city overlays, impacted their engagement with the graphic. Studying the design features of forecast graphics from a social science perspective before they are operational is important, as the findings from this study reveal how different groups could perceive the graphic.

Restricted access
Free access
Free access
Hao Huang
,
Shi Qiu
,
Zhi Zeng
,
Pengyang Song
,
Jiaqi Guo
, and
Xueen Chen

Abstract

The characteristics of modulated internal solitary waves (ISWs) under the influence of one mesoscale eddy pair in the Luzon Strait, involving one anticyclonic eddy (AE) and one cyclonic eddy (CE) induced by the Kuroshio intrusion, were investigated using a nested high-resolution numerical model in the northeastern South China Sea (SCS). The presence of mesoscale eddies greatly impacts the nonlinear evolution of type-a and type-b ISWs. The eddy pair contributes to distinct wave properties and energy evolutions. Compared to type-b waves, type-a waves display more pronounced modulatory characteristics with a larger spatial scale. CE currents and horizontal inhomogeneous stratification are crucial in modulating the wave behaviors, which induce large-amplitude depression ISWs. The AE thereafter yields retardation effects on the wave energy evolution. The average depth-integrated available potential and kinetic energy showed relative increases of −66.12% and −46.07%, respectively, for type-a waves, and −24.26% and −20.15% for type-b waves along the propagation path up to the AE core. The deformed and distorted ISW crest lines propagating further northward exhibit a more dramatic shoaling evolution. The maximum total energies of type-a and b waves at the north station are approximately 13.5 and 3.5 times greater than those at the south station on the continental shelf of the Dongsha Atoll. This work provides essential insights into modulated ISW dynamics under the mesoscale eddy pair within the northeastern SCS deep basin.

Restricted access
Yiling Zheng
,
Chi-Yung Tam
, and
Matthew Collins

Abstract

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is a prominent interannual phenomenon in the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO), influencing weather and climate globally, particularly during extreme IOD events. The IOD shows notable amplitude asymmetry in both observations and historical simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), with positive events having a greater magnitude than negative events, mainly due to the negative nonlinear dynamical heating. However, simulations under the Shared Socio-economic Pathway 5 (SSP5-8.5) scenario indicate a notable reduction in IOD asymmetry. This reduction points to an increased frequency of extreme negative IOD events under global warming. The primary cause of this reduced IOD asymmetry is less negative nonlinear dynamical heating in future simulations, especially the nonlinear zonal advection. Under global warming, the increased atmospheric static stability weakens the large-scale atmospheric response to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies forcing. This leads to reduced strength of nonlinear zonal advection, resulting in a decreased IOD asymmetry. Nevertheless, nonlinear vertical advection, another key factor in IOD asymmetry, remains comparable due to the increased upper-ocean stratification in the eastern TIO. The reduced inhibition of negative nonlinear zonal advection and the increased SST response to deepening thermocline contribute to the increased frequency of extreme negative IOD events. These changes underscore the potential risks associated with negative IOD events in a warming world, emphasizing the importance of understanding IOD dynamics for improved climate impact prediction and future preparedness.

Restricted access
Xiong Xiong
,
Jiang Zhongbao
,
Tang Hongsheng
,
An Ran
,
Liu Yuzhu
, and
Ye Xiaoling

Abstract

This article aims to improve the quality control (QC) of surface daily temperature observations over complex physical geography. A new QC method based on multi-verse optimization algorithm, variational modal decomposition and kernel extreme learning machine was employed to identify potential outliers (the MVO-VMD-KELM method). For the selected six regions with complex physical geography, the inverse distance weighting (IDW), the spatial regression test (SRT), the kernel extreme learning machine (KELM), and the empirical mode decomposition improved KELM (EMD-KELM) methods were employed to test the proposed method. The results indicate that the MVO-VMD-KELM method outperformed other methods in all the cases. The MVO-VMD-KELM method yielded better mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), index of agreement (IOA) and Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient (NSC) values than others via the analysis of evaluation metrics for different cases. The comparison results led to the recommendation that the proposed method is an effective quality control method in identifying the seeded errors for the surface daily temperature observations.

Restricted access