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Alberto Troccoli
,
Tobias Fuchs
,
Roberta Boscolo
,
Elah Matt
, and
Hamid Bastani

Abstract

Weather and Climate Services (W&CS) are key to supporting the transition to net-zero emissions in the energy sector. These services are utilised to increase energy system resilience, enhance renewable energy deployment, and enable uptake of energy-efficiency measures and innovations. As energy systems become increasingly dependent on and affected by weather and climatic conditions, integrating weather and climate data into energy management systems is essential.

This paper addresses the gap in comprehensive guidance for developing integrated W&CS to support net-zero energy transitions, drawing upon a report by the World Meteorological Organization’s Services Commission Study Group on Integrated Energy Services (WMO 2023). We present a framework for co-production of W&CS, exploring how the uptake of W&CS for energy transitions can be enabled through evaluation of socio-economic benefits, harnessing business models, identification of key policies, and capacity development measures.

To support the uptake of W&CS for net-zero energy transitions we recommend: a deeper understanding of user needs and requirements; continuous advancements in the science and technology of W&CS; effective integration of weather and climate data within energy conversion models; improved accessibility and sharing of meteorological and, especially, energy data; promotion of co-production approaches; exploration of novel applications of W&CS in the energy sector; refinement of business models for sustainable W&CS delivery; execution of capacity-building activities; enhanced communication among stakeholders and strengthened collaborative efforts. These steps are crucial for realizing the full potential of W&CS in driving the energy sector towards a sustainable, net-zero future.

Open access
E. Katragkou
,
S. P. Sobolowski
,
C. Teichmann
,
F. Solmon
,
V. Pavlidis
,
D. Rechid
,
P. Hoffmann
,
J. Fernandez
,
G. Nikulin
, and
D. Jacob

Abstract

The Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) is a coordinated international activity that has produced ensembles of regional climate simulations with domains that cover all land areas of the world. These ensembles are used by a wide range of practitioners that include the scientific community, policymakers, and stakeholders from the public and private sectors. They also provide the scientific basis for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change-Assessment Reports. As its next phase now launches, the CMIP6-CORDEX datasets are expected to populate community repositories over the next couple of years, with updated state-of-the-art regional climate data that will further support national and regional communities and inform their climate adaptation and mitigation strategies. The protocol presented here focuses on the European domain (EURO-CORDEX). It takes the international CORDEX protocol covering all 14 global domains as its template. However, it expands on the international protocol in specific areas; incorporates historical and projected aerosol trends into the regional models in a consistent way with CMIP6 global climate models, to allow for a better comparison of global versus regional trends; produces more climate variables to better support sectorial climate impact assessments; and takes into account the recent scientific developments addressed in the CORDEX Flagship Pilot Studies, enabling a better assessment of processes and phenomena relevant to regional climate (e.g., land-use change, aerosol, convection, and urban environment). Here, we summarize the scientific analysis which led to the new simulation protocol and highlight the improvements we expect in the new generation regional climate ensemble.

Open access
Detlef Stammer
,
Daniel E. Amrhein
,
Magdalena Alonso Balmaseda
,
Laurent Bertino
,
Massimo Bonavita
,
Carlo Buontempo
,
Nico Caltabiano
,
Francois Counillon
,
Ian Fenty
,
Raffaele Ferrari
,
Yosuke Fujii
,
Shreyas Sunil Gaikwad
,
Pierre Gentine
,
Andrew Gettelman
,
Ganesh Gopalakrishnan
,
Patrick Heimbach
,
Hans Hersbach
,
Chris Hill
,
Shinya Kobayashi
,
Armin Köhl
,
Paul J. Kushner
,
Matthew Mazloff
,
Hisashi Nakamura
,
Stephen G. Penny
,
Laura Slivinski
,
Susann Tegtmeier
, and
Laure Zanna
Open access
Jiali Wang
,
Georgios Deskos
,
William J. Pringle
,
Sue Ellen Haupt
,
Sha Feng
,
Larry K. Berg
,
Matt Churchfield
,
Mrinal Biswas
,
Walter Musial
,
Paytsar Muradyan
,
Eric Hendricks
,
Rao Kotamarthi
,
Pengfei Xue
,
Christopher M. Rozoff
, and
George Bryan
Open access
Yunyao Li
,
Daniel Tong
,
Peewara Makkaroon
,
Timothy DelSole
,
Youhua Tang
,
Patrick Campbell
,
Barry Baker
,
Mark Cohen
,
Anton Darmenov
,
Ravan Ahmadov
,
Eric James
,
Edward Hyer
, and
Peng Xian

Abstract

Wildfires pose increasing risks to human health and properties in North America. Due to large uncertainties in fire emission, transport, and chemical transformation, it remains challenging to accurately predict air quality during wildfire events, hindering our collective capability to issue effective early warnings to protect public health and welfare. Here, we present a new real-time Hazardous Air Quality Ensemble System (HAQES) by leveraging various wildfire smoke forecasts from three U.S. federal agencies (NOAA, NASA, and Navy). Compared to individual models, the HAQES ensemble forecast significantly enhances forecast accuracy. To further enhance forecasting performance, a weighted ensemble forecast approach was introduced and tested. Compared to the unweighted ensemble mean, the multilinear regression weighted ensemble reduced fractional bias by 34% in the major fire regions, false alarm rate by 72%, and increased hit rate by 17%. Finally, we improved the weighted ensemble using quantile regression and weighted regression methods to enhance the forecast of extreme air quality events. The advanced weighted ensemble increased the PM2.5 exceedance hit rate by 55% compared to the ensemble mean. Our findings provide insights into the development of advanced ensemble forecast methods for wildfire air quality, offering a practical way to enhance decision-making support to protect public health.

Open access
Karen A. Kosiba
,
Anthony W. Lyza
,
Robert J. Trapp
,
Erik N. Rasmussen
,
Matthew Parker
,
Michael I. Biggerstaff
,
Stephen W. Nesbitt
,
Christopher C. Weiss
,
Joshua Wurman
,
Kevin R. Knupp
,
Brice Coffer
,
Vanna C. Chmielewski
,
Daniel T. Dawson
,
Eric Bruning
,
Tyler M. Bell
,
Michael C. Coniglio
,
Todd A. Murphy
,
Michael French
,
Leanne Blind-Doskocil
,
Anthony E. Reinhart
,
dward Wolff
,
Morgan E. Schneider
,
Miranda Silcott
,
Elizabeth Smith
,
oshua Aikins
,
Melissa Wagner
,
Paul Robinson
,
James M. Wilczak
,
Trevor White
,
David Bodine
,
Matthew R. Kumjian
,
Sean M. Waugh
,
A. Addison Alford
,
Kim Elmore
,
Pavlos Kollias
, and
David D. Turner

Abstract

Quasi-linear convective systems (QLCSs) are responsible for approximately a quarter of all tornado events in the U.S., but no field campaigns have focused specifically on collecting data to understand QLCS tornadogenesis. The Propagation, Evolution, and Rotation in Linear System (PERiLS) project was the first observational study of tornadoes associated with QLCSs ever undertaken. Participants were drawn from more than 10 universities, laboratories, and institutes, with over 100 students participating in field activities. The PERiLS field phases spanned two years, late winters and early springs of 2022 and 2023, to increase the probability of intercepting significant tornadic QLCS events in a range of large-scale and local environments. The field phases of PERiLS collected data in nine tornadic and nontornadic QLCSs with unprecedented detail and diversity of measurements. The design and execution of the PERiLS field phase and preliminary data and ongoing analyses are shown.

Open access
Jessica D. Lundquist
,
Julie Vano
,
Ethan Gutmann
,
Daniel Hogan
,
Eli Schwat
,
Michael Haugeneder
,
Emilio Mateo
,
Steve Oncley
,
Chris Roden
,
Elise Osenga
, and
Liz Carver

Abstract

Snow is a vital part of water resources, and sublimation may remove 10%–90% of snowfall from the system. To improve our understanding of the physics that govern sublimation rates, as well as how those rates might change with the climate, we deployed an array of four towers with over 100 instruments from NCAR’s Integrated Surface Flux System from November 2022 to June 2023 in the East River watershed, Colorado, in conjunction with the U.S. Department of Energy’s Surface Atmosphere Integrated Field Laboratory (SAIL) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)’s Study of Precipitation, the Lower Atmosphere and Surface for Hydrometeorology (SPLASH) campaigns. Mass balance observations, snow pits, particle flux sensors, and terrestrial lidar scans of the evolving snowfield demonstrated how blowing snow influences sublimation rates, which we quantified with latent heat fluxes measured by eddy-covariance systems at heights 1–20 m above the snow surface. Detailed temperature profiles at finer resolutions highlighted the role of the stable boundary layer. Four-stream radiometers indicated the important role of changing albedo in the energy balance and its relationship to water vapor losses. Collectively, these observations span scales from seconds to seasons, from boundary layer turbulence to valley circulation to mesoscale meteorology. We describe the field campaign, highlights in the observations, and outreach and education products we are creating to facilitate cross-disciplinary dialogue and convey relevant findings to those seeking to better understand Colorado River snow and streamflow.

Open access
Mariko Oue
,
Katia Lamer
,
Edward Luke
,
Zhuocan Xu
,
Fan Yang
,
Zeen Zhu
, and
Pavlos Kollias
Open access
Zachary Sherman
,
Max Grover
,
Robert Jackson
,
Scott Collis
,
Joseph O’Brien
,
Cameron R. Homeyer
,
Randy J. Chase
,
Timothy J. Lang
,
Daniel M. Stechman
,
Alyssa Sockol
,
Kai Muehlbauer
,
Jonathan Thielen
,
Adam Theisen
,
Sam Gardner
, and
Daniel Michelson

Abstract

Color Vision Deficiency (CVD) is a decreased ability to discern between particular colors. Eight percent of genetic males and half a percent of genetic females have some form of CVD, with many in the radar community falling into this group. When presenting data on a two-dimensional plane, it is common to use colors to represent values via a colormap. Colormap choice in the radar community is influenced by the ability to highlight scientifically interesting features in data, institutional choices, and domain dominance of legacy colormaps. The problem with these current colormaps is that many do not project well for those with CVD (i.e., green next to red). In working with the CVD community to address this problem, multiple colormaps for moments such as equivalent reflectivity factor and Doppler velocity were created for users with forms of CVD such as deuteranomaly, protanomaly, protanopia, and deuteranopia using Python tools such as colorspacious and viscm. We show how these colormaps can improve interpretability for four cases: a mesoscale convective system, a pyrocumulonimbus storm, a wintertime mid-latitude cyclone, and widespread storms with a large bird migration. These new radar equivalent reflectivity factor, Doppler velocity, and polarization colormaps are designed to highlight rain, frozen precipitation, non-meteorological targets, velocity-based items, be perceptually uniform, and visually friendly for those with CVD.

Open access
Zoey Rosen
,
Marilee Long
,
Andrea Schumacher
,
Mark DeMaria
, and
Alan Brammer

Abstract

Map graphics are often used for hazard risk communication, layered with numerical, verbal, and visual information to describe an uncertain threat. In the hurricane context, graphics are used to communicate the probability of different threats over a forecasting period. While hurricane graphics have been studied in the past, they have not been designed with colorblind-friendly accessibility and localization in mind. This study presents the results of a mixed methods study, testing the perceptions of different color schemes and map overlays on a wind exceedance map graphic with samples of experts (emergency managers and meteorologists) and the public. Nineteen experts from Florida and Louisiana were interviewed about their preferences for and risk perceptions of the design elements of the new wind exceedance graphic. The graphic prototypes were also tested using a public sample (n = 624) from Florida and Louisiana to study participants’ design preferences and risk perceptions. Both expert and public samples preferred a yellow-to-red scheme, though experts thought the yellow-to-red scheme presented the hazard as riskier and the public thought the reds-only scheme was riskier. Experts and the public preferred a map graphic with overlays; they scored a map graphic with overlays as riskier than a version without overlays. Understanding the connection between color scheme preference and risk perception for both experts and the public has important implications on risk communication as new graphics are designed. The conclusion of this study provides avenues for future research for experts who want to apply universal design aspects into hurricane graphics.

Restricted access