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Matthew D. LaPlante
,
Luthiene Alves Dalanhese
,
Liping Deng
, and
Shih-Yu Simon Wang

Abstract

Annual wheat yields have steadily risen over the past century, but harvests remain highly variable and dependent on myriad weather conditions during a long growing season. In Kansas, for example, the 2014 crop year brought the lowest average yield in decades at 28 bushels per acre, while in 2016 farmers in the Wheat State, as Kansas is often called, enjoyed an historic high of 57 bushels per acre. It is broadly known that remote forces like the El Niño-Southern Oscillation contribute to meteorological outcomes across North America, including in the wheat growing regions of the U.S. Midwest, but the differential imprints of ENSO phases and flavors have not been well explored as leading indicators for harvest outcomes in highly specific agricultural regions, such as the more than 7 million acres upon which wheat is grown in Kansas. Here, we demonstrate a strong, steady, and long-term association between a simple “wheat yield index” and sea surface temperature anomalies, more than a year earlier, in the East Pacific, potentially offering insights into forthcoming harvest yields several seasons before planting commences.

Restricted access
R. M. Samelson
and
J. T. Farrar

Abstract

Several models are presented for the sea-surface height (SSH) signature of the interior-ocean internal-wave continuum. Most are based on the Garrett-Munk internal-wave model. One is derived from the frequency spectrum of dynamic height from mooring observations. The different models are all plausibly consistent with accepted dynamical and semi-empirical spectral descriptions of the climatological interval-wave field in the interior ocean, but they result in different proportionalities between interior and SSH spectral energy levels. The differences arise in part from differences in the treatment of near-surface stratification, and a major source of uncertainty for all the models comes from inadequately constrained assumptions about the energy in the low-vertical-mode internal-wave field. Most of these models suggest that the SSH signature of the internal-wave continuum will be visible in SSH measurements from the Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) wide-swath satellite altimeter. Temporal variability of internal-wave energy levels and the internal-wave directional spectrum are less well characterized but will also be consequential for the observability of internal-wave signals in SWOT data.

Restricted access
Ruiyi Chen
,
Yiyong Luo
,
Zhiwei Zhang
, and
Fukai Liu

Abstract

Eddy-induced heat flux (EHF) convergence plays an important role in balancing the cooling of mean flows in the heat budget of Southern Ocean. This study investigates the EHF in the Southern Ocean and the surface ocean heat budget over the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) estimated through a high-resolution ocean assimilation product. In contrast to previous studies in which the estimation of the EHF in the Southern Ocean was based on the assumption that mesoscale eddies are quasi-geostrophic turbulence, we find that more than one third of the total meridional EHF in the surface layer is attributed to ageostrophic currents of eddies, and that the ageostrophic component of the EHF convergence is as important as its geostrophic component for the surface ocean heat budget over the ACC. In particular, the ageostrophic meridional EHF convergence accounts for 22% of the warming needed to balance the cooling from the mean flows during winter, equivalent to warming the surface ocean of the ACC by 0.14° C. The ageostrophic meridional EHF is likely caused by the stirring effect of ageostrophic secondary circulations in mesoscale eddies, which are induced by the turbulent thermal wind balance to restore the vertical shear of the upper layer in mesoscale eddies destructed by intense winter winds.

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Michael A. Spall

Abstract

Upwelling along the western boundary of the major ocean basin subtropical gyres has been diagnosed in a wide range of ocean models and state estimates. This vertical transport is O(5×106 m3 s−1), which is of the same order of magnitude as the downward Ekman pumping across the subtropical gyres and zonally-integrated meridional overturning circulation. Two approaches are used here to understand the reason for this upwelling and how it depends on oceanic parameters. First, a kinematic model that imposes a density gradient along the western boundary demonstrates that there must be upwelling with a maximum vertical transport at mid-depths in order to maintain geostrophic balance in the western boundary current. The second approach considers the vorticity budget near the western boundary in an idealized primitive equation model of the wind- and buoyancy-forced subtropical and subpolar gyres. It is shown that a pressure gradient along the western boundary results in bottom pressure torque that injects vorticity into the fluid. This is balanced on the boundary by lateral viscous fluxes that redistribute this vorticity across the boundary current. The viscous fluxes in the interior are balanced primarily by vertical stretching of planetary vorticity, giving rise to upwelling within the boundary current. This process is found to be nearly adiabatic. Nonlinear terms and advection of planetary vorticity are also important locally but are not the ultimate drivers of the upwelling. Additional numerical model calculations demonstrate that the upwelling is a non-local consequence of buoyancy loss at high latitudes and thus represents an integral component of the meridional overturning circulation in depth-space but not in density-space.

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Charles M. Kuster
,
Keith D. Sherburn
,
Vivek N. Mahale
,
Terry J. Schuur
,
Olivia F. McCauley
, and
Jason S. Schaumann

Abstract

Recent operationally driven research has generated a framework, known as the three-ingredients method and mesovortex warning system, that can help forecasters anticipate mesovortex development and issue warnings within quasi-linear convective systems (QLCSs). However, dual-polarization radar data has not yet been incorporated into this framework. Therefore, several dual- and single-polarization radar signatures associated with QLCS mesovortices were analyzed to determine if they could provide additional information about mesovortex development and intensity. An analysis of 167 mesovortices showed that 1) KDP drops precede ~95% of mesovortices and provide an initial indication of where a mesovortex may develop, 2) midlevel KDP cores are a potentially useful precursor signature because they precede a majority of mesovortices and have higher magnitudes for mesovortices that produce wind damage or tornadoes, 3) low-level KDP cores and areas of enhanced spectrum width have higher magnitudes for mesovortices that produce wind damage or tornadoes, but tend to develop at about the same time as the mesovortex, which makes them more useful as diagnostic than as predictive signatures, and 4) as range from the radar increases, the radar signatures become less useful in anticipating mesovortex intensity but can still be used to anticipate mesovortex development or build confidence in mesovortex existence.

Restricted access
Richard A. Anthes
,
Christian Marquardt
,
Benjamin Ruston
, and
Hui Shao

Abstract

The international radio occultation (RO) community is conducting a collaborative effort to explore the impact of a large number of RO observations on numerical weather prediction (NWP). This effort, the Radio Occultation Modeling Experiment (ROMEX), has been endorsed by the International Radio Occultation Working Group, a scientific working group under the auspices of the Coordination Group for Meteorological Satellites (CGMS).

ROMEX seeks to inform strategies for future RO missions and acquisitions. ROMEX is planned to consist of at least one three-month period during which all available RO data are collected, processed, archived, and made available to the global community free of charge for research and testing. Although the primary purpose is to test the impact of varying numbers of RO observations on NWP, the three months of RO observations during the first ROMEX period (ROMEX-1, September-November 2022) will be a rich data set for research on many atmospheric phenomena.

The RO data providers have sent their data to EUMETSAT for processing. The total number of RO profiles averages between 30,000 and 40,000 per day for ROMEX-1. The processed data (phase, bending angle, refractivity, temperature, and water vapor) will be distributed to ROMEX participants by the Radio Occultation Meteorology Satellite Applications Facility (ROM SAF). The data will also be processed independently by the UCAR COSMIC Data Analysis and Archive Center (CDAAC) and available via ROM SAF. The data are freely available to all participants who agree to the conditions that the providers be acknowledged and the data are not used for commercial or operational purposes.

Open access
Linda Bogerd
,
Chris Kidd
,
Christian Kummerow
,
Hidde Leijnse
,
Aart Overeem
,
Veljko Petkovic
,
Kirien Whan
, and
Remko Uijlenhoet

Abstract

Spaceborne microwave radiometers represent an important component of the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission due to their frequent sampling of rain systems. Microwave radiometers measure microwave radiation (brightness temperatures Tb), which can be converted into precipitation estimates with appropriate assumptions. However, detecting shallow precipitation systems using spaceborne radiometers is challenging, especially over land, as their weak signals are hard to differentiate from those associated with dry conditions. This study uses a random forest (RF) model to classify microwave radiometer observations as dry, shallow, or nonshallow over the Netherlands—a region with varying surface conditions and frequent occurrence of shallow precipitation. The RF model is trained on five years of data (2016–20) and tested with two independent years (2015 and 2021). The observations are classified using ground-based weather radar echo top heights. Various RF models are assessed, such as using only GPM Microwave Imager (GMI) Tb values as input features or including spatially aligned ERA5 2-m temperature and freezing level reanalysis and/or Dual-Frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) observations. Independent of the input features, the model performs best in summer and worst in winter. The model classifies observations from high-frequency channels (≥85 GHz) with lower Tb values as nonshallow, higher values as dry, and those in between as shallow. Misclassified footprints exhibit radiometric characteristics corresponding to their assigned class. Case studies reveal dry observations misclassified as shallow are associated with lower Tb values, likely resulting from the presence of ice particles in nonprecipitating clouds. Shallow footprints misclassified as dry are likely related to the absence of ice particles.

Significance Statement

Published research concerning rainfall retrieval algorithms from microwave radiometers is often focused on the accuracy of these algorithms. While shallow precipitation over land is often characterized as problematic in these studies, little progress has been made with these systems. In particular, precipitation formed by shallow clouds, where shallow refers to the clouds being close to Earth’s surface, is often missed. This study is focused on detecting shallow precipitation and its physical characteristics to further improve its detection from spaceborne sensors. As such, it contributes to understanding which shallow precipitation scenes are challenging to detect from microwave radiometers, suggesting possible ways for algorithm improvement.

Open access
Alberto Troccoli
,
Tobias Fuchs
,
Roberta Boscolo
,
Elah Matt
, and
Hamid Bastani

Abstract

Weather and Climate Services (W&CS) are key to supporting the transition to net-zero emissions in the energy sector. These services are utilised to increase energy system resilience, enhance renewable energy deployment, and enable uptake of energy-efficiency measures and innovations. As energy systems become increasingly dependent on and affected by weather and climatic conditions, integrating weather and climate data into energy management systems is essential.

This paper addresses the gap in comprehensive guidance for developing integrated W&CS to support net-zero energy transitions, drawing upon a report by the World Meteorological Organization’s Services Commission Study Group on Integrated Energy Services (WMO 2023). We present a framework for co-production of W&CS, exploring how the uptake of W&CS for energy transitions can be enabled through evaluation of socio-economic benefits, harnessing business models, identification of key policies, and capacity development measures.

To support the uptake of W&CS for net-zero energy transitions we recommend: a deeper understanding of user needs and requirements; continuous advancements in the science and technology of W&CS; effective integration of weather and climate data within energy conversion models; improved accessibility and sharing of meteorological and, especially, energy data; promotion of co-production approaches; exploration of novel applications of W&CS in the energy sector; refinement of business models for sustainable W&CS delivery; execution of capacity-building activities; enhanced communication among stakeholders and strengthened collaborative efforts. These steps are crucial for realizing the full potential of W&CS in driving the energy sector towards a sustainable, net-zero future.

Open access
E. Katragkou
,
S. P. Sobolowski
,
C. Teichmann
,
F. Solmon
,
V. Pavlidis
,
D. Rechid
,
P. Hoffmann
,
J. Fernandez
,
G. Nikulin
, and
D. Jacob

Abstract

The Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) is a coordinated international activity that has produced ensembles of regional climate simulations with domains that cover all land areas of the world. These ensembles are used by a wide range of practitioners that include the scientific community, policymakers, and stakeholders from the public and private sectors. They also provide the scientific basis for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change-Assessment Reports. As its next phase now launches, the CMIP6-CORDEX datasets are expected to populate community repositories over the next couple of years, with updated state-of-the-art regional climate data that will further support national and regional communities and inform their climate adaptation and mitigation strategies. The protocol presented here focuses on the European domain (EURO-CORDEX). It takes the international CORDEX protocol covering all 14 global domains as its template. However, it expands on the international protocol in specific areas; incorporates historical and projected aerosol trends into the regional models in a consistent way with CMIP6 global climate models, to allow for a better comparison of global versus regional trends; produces more climate variables to better support sectorial climate impact assessments; and takes into account the recent scientific developments addressed in the CORDEX Flagship Pilot Studies, enabling a better assessment of processes and phenomena relevant to regional climate (e.g., land-use change, aerosol, convection, and urban environment). Here, we summarize the scientific analysis which led to the new simulation protocol and highlight the improvements we expect in the new generation regional climate ensemble.

Open access
Detlef Stammer
,
Daniel E. Amrhein
,
Magdalena Alonso Balmaseda
,
Laurent Bertino
,
Massimo Bonavita
,
Carlo Buontempo
,
Nico Caltabiano
,
Francois Counillon
,
Ian Fenty
,
Raffaele Ferrari
,
Yosuke Fujii
,
Shreyas Sunil Gaikwad
,
Pierre Gentine
,
Andrew Gettelman
,
Ganesh Gopalakrishnan
,
Patrick Heimbach
,
Hans Hersbach
,
Chris Hill
,
Shinya Kobayashi
,
Armin Köhl
,
Paul J. Kushner
,
Matthew Mazloff
,
Hisashi Nakamura
,
Stephen G. Penny
,
Laura Slivinski
,
Susann Tegtmeier
, and
Laure Zanna
Open access