Abstract
The Indochinese Peninsula experiences a dry season with extensive biomass burning peaking from March to April. As the monsoon arrives, rainfall significantly removes aerosols through deposition, ending the emission season. However, the biomass burning aerosols exert an influence on the atmospheric circulation prior to the monsoon onset. This study employed statistical methods and a regional atmosphere-chemistry model (WRF-Chem) to investigate the delayed impact of biomass burning from the Indochinese Peninsula on the monsoon onset. The results indicate that the cold sea surface temperature anomaly caused by the aerosols during the emission season can be stored in the ocean and inhibit convective activities over the adjacent sea regions in the post-emission season, suppressing the southwestward cross-equatorial flow over the southern Bay of Bengal. This suppression delays the westward extension and northward shift of the upper-level South Asian high-pressure system, along with its divergence and subsidence effects, thereby postponing the breakdown and retreat of the subtropical high-pressure belt. Simultaneously, the cold sea temperature also suppresses the development of a warm pool in the southeastern Bay of Bengal, which is associated with the generation of a monsoon onset vortex. Consequently, the onset of the Bay of Bengal monsoon is delayed. Due to the decreasing delayed effects of aerosols over time and the counteractive warming from the accelerated abnormal anticyclonic circulation in the upper Bay of Bengal, which results in accelerated sea surface warming, the delayed influence of aerosols diminishes gradually after the onset of the Bay of Bengal monsoon until it disappears.
Abstract
The Indochinese Peninsula experiences a dry season with extensive biomass burning peaking from March to April. As the monsoon arrives, rainfall significantly removes aerosols through deposition, ending the emission season. However, the biomass burning aerosols exert an influence on the atmospheric circulation prior to the monsoon onset. This study employed statistical methods and a regional atmosphere-chemistry model (WRF-Chem) to investigate the delayed impact of biomass burning from the Indochinese Peninsula on the monsoon onset. The results indicate that the cold sea surface temperature anomaly caused by the aerosols during the emission season can be stored in the ocean and inhibit convective activities over the adjacent sea regions in the post-emission season, suppressing the southwestward cross-equatorial flow over the southern Bay of Bengal. This suppression delays the westward extension and northward shift of the upper-level South Asian high-pressure system, along with its divergence and subsidence effects, thereby postponing the breakdown and retreat of the subtropical high-pressure belt. Simultaneously, the cold sea temperature also suppresses the development of a warm pool in the southeastern Bay of Bengal, which is associated with the generation of a monsoon onset vortex. Consequently, the onset of the Bay of Bengal monsoon is delayed. Due to the decreasing delayed effects of aerosols over time and the counteractive warming from the accelerated abnormal anticyclonic circulation in the upper Bay of Bengal, which results in accelerated sea surface warming, the delayed influence of aerosols diminishes gradually after the onset of the Bay of Bengal monsoon until it disappears.
Abstract
An increasing number of studies have recognized the essential influence of surface potential vorticity (PV) forcing on atmospheric circulation. In this study, we investigated the temporal characteristics of global surface PV forcing in January and its associated climate anomalies. The global surface PV forcing exhibited a pronounced decreasing trend, implying reduced forcing on atmospheric PV. Its interannual component was accompanied by cold winters on the Eurasian and North American continents and long-persisting droughts in Southwest China (SWC), consistent with the coexistence of these extreme events. Based on the global surface PV forcing index, the mechanism underlying long-persisting droughts, which lasted from October to January, was investigated. The formation mechanisms of persistent drought varied monthly. Specifically, the occurrence of drought in October was closely related to Rossby wave activity over Eurasia, which enhanced the anomalous anticyclone over the Tibetan Plateau and subsequently induced air descent over SWC. In contrast, drought in November and December could be ascribed to La Niña events in the central Pacific, which facilitated subsidence over SWC through local meridional circulation anomalies. Distinct from other months, the combined effects of La Niña events and circulation anomalies over northern Eurasia caused the drought in January. The former reduced precipitation over southern SWC, whereas the latter influenced precipitation over central SWC. The present study provides novel insights into simultaneous extreme events in the Northern Hemisphere.
Abstract
An increasing number of studies have recognized the essential influence of surface potential vorticity (PV) forcing on atmospheric circulation. In this study, we investigated the temporal characteristics of global surface PV forcing in January and its associated climate anomalies. The global surface PV forcing exhibited a pronounced decreasing trend, implying reduced forcing on atmospheric PV. Its interannual component was accompanied by cold winters on the Eurasian and North American continents and long-persisting droughts in Southwest China (SWC), consistent with the coexistence of these extreme events. Based on the global surface PV forcing index, the mechanism underlying long-persisting droughts, which lasted from October to January, was investigated. The formation mechanisms of persistent drought varied monthly. Specifically, the occurrence of drought in October was closely related to Rossby wave activity over Eurasia, which enhanced the anomalous anticyclone over the Tibetan Plateau and subsequently induced air descent over SWC. In contrast, drought in November and December could be ascribed to La Niña events in the central Pacific, which facilitated subsidence over SWC through local meridional circulation anomalies. Distinct from other months, the combined effects of La Niña events and circulation anomalies over northern Eurasia caused the drought in January. The former reduced precipitation over southern SWC, whereas the latter influenced precipitation over central SWC. The present study provides novel insights into simultaneous extreme events in the Northern Hemisphere.
Abstract
We introduce a quasi-analytical model of thermally-induced flows in valleys with sloping floors, a feature absent from most theoretical valley wind studies. One of the main theories for valley winds – the valley volume effect – emerged from field studies in the European Alps in the 1930s and 1940s. According to that theory, along-valley variations in the heating rate arising from variations in valley geometry generated the pressure gradient that drove the valley wind. However, while those early studies were conducted in valleys with relatively flat (horizontal) floors, valleys with sloping floors are ubiquitous and presumably affected directly by slope buoyancy (Prandtl mechanism). Our model is developed for the Prandtl setting of steady flow of a stably stratified fluid over a heated planar slope, but with the slope replaced by a periodic system of sloping valleys. As the valley characteristics do not change along the valley, there is no valley volume effect. The 2D linearized Boussinesq governing equations are solved using Fourier methods. Examples are explored for symmetric (with respect to valley axis) valleys subject to symmetric and antisymmetric heating. The flows are 2D, but the trajectories are intrinsically 3D. For symmetric heating, trajectories are of two types: (i) helical trajectories of parcels trapped within one of two counter-rotating vortices straddling the valley axis, and (ii) trajectories of environmental parcels that approach the valley horizontally, move under and then over the helical trajectories, and then return to the environment. For antisymmetric heating, three types of trajectories are identified.
Abstract
We introduce a quasi-analytical model of thermally-induced flows in valleys with sloping floors, a feature absent from most theoretical valley wind studies. One of the main theories for valley winds – the valley volume effect – emerged from field studies in the European Alps in the 1930s and 1940s. According to that theory, along-valley variations in the heating rate arising from variations in valley geometry generated the pressure gradient that drove the valley wind. However, while those early studies were conducted in valleys with relatively flat (horizontal) floors, valleys with sloping floors are ubiquitous and presumably affected directly by slope buoyancy (Prandtl mechanism). Our model is developed for the Prandtl setting of steady flow of a stably stratified fluid over a heated planar slope, but with the slope replaced by a periodic system of sloping valleys. As the valley characteristics do not change along the valley, there is no valley volume effect. The 2D linearized Boussinesq governing equations are solved using Fourier methods. Examples are explored for symmetric (with respect to valley axis) valleys subject to symmetric and antisymmetric heating. The flows are 2D, but the trajectories are intrinsically 3D. For symmetric heating, trajectories are of two types: (i) helical trajectories of parcels trapped within one of two counter-rotating vortices straddling the valley axis, and (ii) trajectories of environmental parcels that approach the valley horizontally, move under and then over the helical trajectories, and then return to the environment. For antisymmetric heating, three types of trajectories are identified.
Abstract
A series of papers published since 1998 asserts that US Tropical-Cyclone (TC) damage, when “normalized” for individual wealth, population, and inflation, exhibits no increase attributable to AGW (Anthropogenic Global Warming). This result is here questioned for three reasons: 1) The then-year (no demographic or economic adjustments) US TC damage increases 2.5% per year faster than US then-year Gross Domestic Product. This result, which is substantially due to faster growth of assets in hurricane-prone states, shows that TC impacts on the total US economy double every generation. 2) Fitting of an exponential curve to normalized damage binned by 5-year “pentads” yields a growth rate of 1.06% yr−1 since 1900, although causes besides AGW may contribute. 3) During the 21st century, when the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) was in its warm phase, the most-damaging US TCs struck at twice the rate of the warm AMO of the 20th century and four times the rate of the entire 20th century, both warm and cool AMO phases.
A key unanswered question is: What will happen when (and if) the AMO returns to its cool phase later in this century?
Abstract
A series of papers published since 1998 asserts that US Tropical-Cyclone (TC) damage, when “normalized” for individual wealth, population, and inflation, exhibits no increase attributable to AGW (Anthropogenic Global Warming). This result is here questioned for three reasons: 1) The then-year (no demographic or economic adjustments) US TC damage increases 2.5% per year faster than US then-year Gross Domestic Product. This result, which is substantially due to faster growth of assets in hurricane-prone states, shows that TC impacts on the total US economy double every generation. 2) Fitting of an exponential curve to normalized damage binned by 5-year “pentads” yields a growth rate of 1.06% yr−1 since 1900, although causes besides AGW may contribute. 3) During the 21st century, when the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) was in its warm phase, the most-damaging US TCs struck at twice the rate of the warm AMO of the 20th century and four times the rate of the entire 20th century, both warm and cool AMO phases.
A key unanswered question is: What will happen when (and if) the AMO returns to its cool phase later in this century?
Abstract
Climate models project a significant intensification of the sea surface temperature (SST) seasonal cycle over the subpolar North Pacific due to global warming, with the shallower mixed layer widely recognized as the dominant factor. However, employing slab ocean experiments with only ocean–atmosphere thermal coupling, we find a substantial contribution from changes in surface heat flux to this seasonal cycle intensification. In particular, the stronger Newtonian cooling effect in winter acts as a more potent damping than in summer. This differential damping inhibits the warming in colder seasons, significantly contributing to the intensified SST seasonal cycle in the subpolar North Pacific. In addition, consistent phase shifts in the North Pacific are identified across CMIP6 models. In the northwest North Pacific, a phase advance is associated with anomalous heating in early spring, driven by enhanced warm atmospheric advection from lower latitudes and sea ice melting in marginal seas. In contrast, the southeast North Pacific exhibits a phase delay attributed to the anomalous cooling in spring relative to autumn. This cooling is due to weakened trade winds and increased presence of high clouds. The former leads to stronger evaporative cooling in spring, while the latter impedes shortwave radiation from reaching the ocean.
Abstract
Climate models project a significant intensification of the sea surface temperature (SST) seasonal cycle over the subpolar North Pacific due to global warming, with the shallower mixed layer widely recognized as the dominant factor. However, employing slab ocean experiments with only ocean–atmosphere thermal coupling, we find a substantial contribution from changes in surface heat flux to this seasonal cycle intensification. In particular, the stronger Newtonian cooling effect in winter acts as a more potent damping than in summer. This differential damping inhibits the warming in colder seasons, significantly contributing to the intensified SST seasonal cycle in the subpolar North Pacific. In addition, consistent phase shifts in the North Pacific are identified across CMIP6 models. In the northwest North Pacific, a phase advance is associated with anomalous heating in early spring, driven by enhanced warm atmospheric advection from lower latitudes and sea ice melting in marginal seas. In contrast, the southeast North Pacific exhibits a phase delay attributed to the anomalous cooling in spring relative to autumn. This cooling is due to weakened trade winds and increased presence of high clouds. The former leads to stronger evaporative cooling in spring, while the latter impedes shortwave radiation from reaching the ocean.
Development of a Precipitation Climate Record from Spaceborne Precipitation Radar Data. Part II: Temporal Adjustment of the Calibration Change Using the Ocean Normalized Radar Cross SectionAbstract
We analyze the calibration stability of the 17-yr precipitation radar (PR) data on board the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite to develop a precipitation climate record from the spaceborne precipitation radar data of the TRMM and following satellite missions. Since the PR measures the normalized radar cross section (NRCS) over the ocean surface, the temporal change in the NRCS whose variability is insensitive to the sea surface wind is regarded as the temporal change of the PR calibration. The temporal change of the PR calibration in TRMM, version 7, is found to be 0.19 dB decade−1 from 1998 to 2013. The calibration change is simply adjusted to evaluate the NRCS time series and the near-surface precipitation trend analysis within the latitudinal band between 35°S and 35°N. The NRCS time series at nadir and off-nadir are uncorrelated before the calibration adjustment, but they are correlated after the adjustment. The 0.19 dB decade−1 change of the PR calibration causes an overestimation of 0.08 mm day−1 decade−1 or 2.9% decade−1 for the linear trend of the near-surface precipitation. Even after the adjustment, agreement of the results among the satellite products depends on the analysis period. The temporal stability of the data quality is also important to evaluate the plausible trend analysis. The reprocessing of the PR data in TRMM, version 8 (or later), takes into account the temporal adjustment of the calibration change based upon the results of this study, which can provide more credible data for a long-term precipitation analysis.
Significance Statement
The stability of long-term data is very important for climate research so that an account of temporal calibration changes in the sensor must be made. In this study, we investigate the calibration stability of the TRMM PR data and evaluate its impact on the precipitation trend analysis. The temporal change of the PR calibration is estimated to be 0.19 dB decade−1. Compensating for this change improves the consistency of precipitation trend analysis between the PR and other precipitation datasets. The reprocessed PR data provide more probable data for long-term precipitation analysis.
Abstract
We analyze the calibration stability of the 17-yr precipitation radar (PR) data on board the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite to develop a precipitation climate record from the spaceborne precipitation radar data of the TRMM and following satellite missions. Since the PR measures the normalized radar cross section (NRCS) over the ocean surface, the temporal change in the NRCS whose variability is insensitive to the sea surface wind is regarded as the temporal change of the PR calibration. The temporal change of the PR calibration in TRMM, version 7, is found to be 0.19 dB decade−1 from 1998 to 2013. The calibration change is simply adjusted to evaluate the NRCS time series and the near-surface precipitation trend analysis within the latitudinal band between 35°S and 35°N. The NRCS time series at nadir and off-nadir are uncorrelated before the calibration adjustment, but they are correlated after the adjustment. The 0.19 dB decade−1 change of the PR calibration causes an overestimation of 0.08 mm day−1 decade−1 or 2.9% decade−1 for the linear trend of the near-surface precipitation. Even after the adjustment, agreement of the results among the satellite products depends on the analysis period. The temporal stability of the data quality is also important to evaluate the plausible trend analysis. The reprocessing of the PR data in TRMM, version 8 (or later), takes into account the temporal adjustment of the calibration change based upon the results of this study, which can provide more credible data for a long-term precipitation analysis.
Significance Statement
The stability of long-term data is very important for climate research so that an account of temporal calibration changes in the sensor must be made. In this study, we investigate the calibration stability of the TRMM PR data and evaluate its impact on the precipitation trend analysis. The temporal change of the PR calibration is estimated to be 0.19 dB decade−1. Compensating for this change improves the consistency of precipitation trend analysis between the PR and other precipitation datasets. The reprocessed PR data provide more probable data for long-term precipitation analysis.
DINEOF Interpolation of Global Ocean Color Data: Error Analysis and MaskingAbstract
The Data Interpolation Empirical Orthogonal Function (DINEOF) algorithm is used to reconstruct datasets of geophysical and biological variables such as sea surface temperature (SST) and chlorophyll a (Chl a). In this study, we analyze the impact of both the quantity and distribution of missing data on the performance of DINEOF demonstrating how DINEOF plus a connectivity mask can be used for future data reconstruction tasks. We propose an enhanced version of DINEOF (DINEOF+) by adding two steps: 1) Using a 75% threshold of missing data for reconstructing incomplete datasets and 2) masking interpolated points that lack sufficient space–time observations in the original dataset. We successfully apply DINEOF+ to the Ocean Color Climate Change Initiative (OC-CCI) global daily Chl a dataset and validate the results using in situ datasets. We find that the recovery rate varies across ocean basins and years. In oligotrophic waters, the daily data coverage increased by 40%–50% during the period from 2003 to 2020. Using DINEOF+ allows us to obtain a significantly higher temporal resolution of global Chl a data, which will improve understanding of marine phytoplankton dynamics in response to changing environments.
Significance Statement
We perform an error analysis on the application of DINEOF for reconstructing a global Chl a dataset. The results of this analysis illustrate the impact of missing data—both in terms of quantity and distribution—on the performance of DINEOF. We propose using DINEOF+, an enhanced version of DINEOF that adds an editing step to mask out interpolated points based on the number of surrounding observations in the original input. The performance of DINEOF+ was validated using both simulated and in situ datasets. The results indicate that employing this masking technique effectively reduces biased estimates of missing data. DINEOF+ can be applied to other biogeochemical variables. However, caution is advised when dealing with observations characterized by high variance.
Abstract
The Data Interpolation Empirical Orthogonal Function (DINEOF) algorithm is used to reconstruct datasets of geophysical and biological variables such as sea surface temperature (SST) and chlorophyll a (Chl a). In this study, we analyze the impact of both the quantity and distribution of missing data on the performance of DINEOF demonstrating how DINEOF plus a connectivity mask can be used for future data reconstruction tasks. We propose an enhanced version of DINEOF (DINEOF+) by adding two steps: 1) Using a 75% threshold of missing data for reconstructing incomplete datasets and 2) masking interpolated points that lack sufficient space–time observations in the original dataset. We successfully apply DINEOF+ to the Ocean Color Climate Change Initiative (OC-CCI) global daily Chl a dataset and validate the results using in situ datasets. We find that the recovery rate varies across ocean basins and years. In oligotrophic waters, the daily data coverage increased by 40%–50% during the period from 2003 to 2020. Using DINEOF+ allows us to obtain a significantly higher temporal resolution of global Chl a data, which will improve understanding of marine phytoplankton dynamics in response to changing environments.
Significance Statement
We perform an error analysis on the application of DINEOF for reconstructing a global Chl a dataset. The results of this analysis illustrate the impact of missing data—both in terms of quantity and distribution—on the performance of DINEOF. We propose using DINEOF+, an enhanced version of DINEOF that adds an editing step to mask out interpolated points based on the number of surrounding observations in the original input. The performance of DINEOF+ was validated using both simulated and in situ datasets. The results indicate that employing this masking technique effectively reduces biased estimates of missing data. DINEOF+ can be applied to other biogeochemical variables. However, caution is advised when dealing with observations characterized by high variance.
Abstract
Western Central Africa is atypical of the equatorial domain as the main dry season is cloudier than the rainy seasons. To understand this cloud cover's diurnal evolution, we set-up an infrared camera and acquired measurements of the total cloud cover fraction (TCF) and cloud optical depth at Bambidie, Gabon (0°44’30.5” S,12°58’12.4” O) from May to October 2022. Diurnal variations in TCF can be summarized into four types, mostly discretized through the timing and duration of clouds clearing in the afternoon (Early afternoon Clearing: EaC, Late afternoon Clearing: LaC and Clear Night: CNi) while one type (No Clearing: NoC) shows overcast conditions all day long.
Meteorological measurements show that NoC days record 50W/m2 less shortwave incoming surface radiation resulting in daytime temperatures 1°C lower than the seasonal norm, but 20% more diffuse light and 0.5mm/day less ETo. Conversely, EaC days record 50W/m2 more shortwave incoming surface radiation leading to temperatures 1.5°C higher than the seasonal norm, but 40% more direct light. The larger water demand (0.5mm/day more ETo) is partly compensated by more frequent rainfall at night-time.
The SAFNWC satellite estimates well capture the TCF variations for most of the 4 types. They confirm that TCF is dominated by very low and low clouds whose dissipation in the afternoon and evolution into fractional and cumuliform convective clouds explains the clearings on EaC and LaC days. Satellite estimates also show that the 4 types of days extracted at Bambidie are representative of a larger-scale cloud cover evolution in Western Central Africa, with a W-E gradient in the timing of afternoon cloud dissipation.
Abstract
Western Central Africa is atypical of the equatorial domain as the main dry season is cloudier than the rainy seasons. To understand this cloud cover's diurnal evolution, we set-up an infrared camera and acquired measurements of the total cloud cover fraction (TCF) and cloud optical depth at Bambidie, Gabon (0°44’30.5” S,12°58’12.4” O) from May to October 2022. Diurnal variations in TCF can be summarized into four types, mostly discretized through the timing and duration of clouds clearing in the afternoon (Early afternoon Clearing: EaC, Late afternoon Clearing: LaC and Clear Night: CNi) while one type (No Clearing: NoC) shows overcast conditions all day long.
Meteorological measurements show that NoC days record 50W/m2 less shortwave incoming surface radiation resulting in daytime temperatures 1°C lower than the seasonal norm, but 20% more diffuse light and 0.5mm/day less ETo. Conversely, EaC days record 50W/m2 more shortwave incoming surface radiation leading to temperatures 1.5°C higher than the seasonal norm, but 40% more direct light. The larger water demand (0.5mm/day more ETo) is partly compensated by more frequent rainfall at night-time.
The SAFNWC satellite estimates well capture the TCF variations for most of the 4 types. They confirm that TCF is dominated by very low and low clouds whose dissipation in the afternoon and evolution into fractional and cumuliform convective clouds explains the clearings on EaC and LaC days. Satellite estimates also show that the 4 types of days extracted at Bambidie are representative of a larger-scale cloud cover evolution in Western Central Africa, with a W-E gradient in the timing of afternoon cloud dissipation.
Abstract
Drought is one of the most complicated and challenging natural hazards, which occurs nearly in every part of the world and poses recurring challenges to agriculture, food security, livestock, human health, and water management. Pakistan has a long history of drought; however, this study focuses on drought analysis and projection in the province of Punjab, Pakistan, as it provides around 60% of the country’s food product, significantly contributing to the national food supply and economy. This study utilized the previous 56 years (1962–2017) of climate data to calculate the reconnaissance drought index (RDI) and then extracted the drought variables of durations and severity for each meteorological station. The best-fit marginal probability distribution and copula models were chosen for the stations based on numerical as well as graphical evaluation. Lognormal and exponential probability distributions, as well as Gumbel, are selected as the best-fit probability distributions for both drought characteristics and bivariate copula model, respectively, for projections. From the projections, we can infer that the smaller return periods indicate high vulnerability while longer return periods with low vulnerability. The results suggest that Faisalabad, Bahawalpur, Bahawalnagar, and Multan stations have the lowest return periods, indicating high vulnerability, and may experience drought more frequently in the future. Mianwali, Khanpur, Lahore, and Sialkot stations may have an intermediate vulnerability to drought events. The stations of Jhelum, Murree, and Sargodha have larger return periods, implying lower susceptibility to drought events in the future. The projected results provide insights for policymakers and stakeholders to optimize the risk of droughts on agriculture production, livestock, water management, human health, and food security in Punjab, Pakistan.
Abstract
Drought is one of the most complicated and challenging natural hazards, which occurs nearly in every part of the world and poses recurring challenges to agriculture, food security, livestock, human health, and water management. Pakistan has a long history of drought; however, this study focuses on drought analysis and projection in the province of Punjab, Pakistan, as it provides around 60% of the country’s food product, significantly contributing to the national food supply and economy. This study utilized the previous 56 years (1962–2017) of climate data to calculate the reconnaissance drought index (RDI) and then extracted the drought variables of durations and severity for each meteorological station. The best-fit marginal probability distribution and copula models were chosen for the stations based on numerical as well as graphical evaluation. Lognormal and exponential probability distributions, as well as Gumbel, are selected as the best-fit probability distributions for both drought characteristics and bivariate copula model, respectively, for projections. From the projections, we can infer that the smaller return periods indicate high vulnerability while longer return periods with low vulnerability. The results suggest that Faisalabad, Bahawalpur, Bahawalnagar, and Multan stations have the lowest return periods, indicating high vulnerability, and may experience drought more frequently in the future. Mianwali, Khanpur, Lahore, and Sialkot stations may have an intermediate vulnerability to drought events. The stations of Jhelum, Murree, and Sargodha have larger return periods, implying lower susceptibility to drought events in the future. The projected results provide insights for policymakers and stakeholders to optimize the risk of droughts on agriculture production, livestock, water management, human health, and food security in Punjab, Pakistan.
Abstract
The in situ generation and characteristics of planetary waves (PWs) in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) during the January 2021 sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) are investigated using the Navy Global Environmental Model. During a SSW, upward-propagating PWs can be absorbed, refracted, or amplified, the latter implying in situ PW generation. Additionally, asymmetric dissipation of GW drag in the MLT due to varying stratospheric winds may also seed PW generation. Ultimately, the interaction of waves with instability can enhance westward-propagating, quasi-stationary, or eastward-propagating components of PWs (WPW, QSPWs, and EPWs, respectively). The propagation pathway of a wave is diagnosed by its refractive index and is dependent on factors such as the baroclinic/barotropic stability of the atmosphere, the wave’s relative phase velocity, and the wavenumber. Through these pathways waves are able to transfer heat and momentum throughout the atmosphere. Under particular conditions, the waves can amplify in situ by extracting energy from the background wind. Our study identifies two scenarios in which WPWs and EPWs were amplified successively. Amplified WPWs propagated upwards and influenced the MLT while amplified EPWs propagated downwards and influenced the upper troposphere.
Abstract
The in situ generation and characteristics of planetary waves (PWs) in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) during the January 2021 sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) are investigated using the Navy Global Environmental Model. During a SSW, upward-propagating PWs can be absorbed, refracted, or amplified, the latter implying in situ PW generation. Additionally, asymmetric dissipation of GW drag in the MLT due to varying stratospheric winds may also seed PW generation. Ultimately, the interaction of waves with instability can enhance westward-propagating, quasi-stationary, or eastward-propagating components of PWs (WPW, QSPWs, and EPWs, respectively). The propagation pathway of a wave is diagnosed by its refractive index and is dependent on factors such as the baroclinic/barotropic stability of the atmosphere, the wave’s relative phase velocity, and the wavenumber. Through these pathways waves are able to transfer heat and momentum throughout the atmosphere. Under particular conditions, the waves can amplify in situ by extracting energy from the background wind. Our study identifies two scenarios in which WPWs and EPWs were amplified successively. Amplified WPWs propagated upwards and influenced the MLT while amplified EPWs propagated downwards and influenced the upper troposphere.
