Explaining Extreme Events from a Climate Perspective
Description:
This collection aims to synthesize cutting-edge research, innovative methodologies, and interdisciplinary approaches to enhance our understanding of extreme events, their links to climate change, and their impacts on human and natural systems. The proposed special collection welcomes contributions that explore both the physical mechanisms by which climate change and natural variations affect extreme events, and the broader implications for society and the environment. Key focus areas include:
- Attribution Studies: Investigating the extent to which climate change influences the frequency, intensity, and spatial distribution of extreme events in tandem with natural variability, with a focus on events that are not addressed in an operational context.
- Regional Perspectives: Analyzing region-specific vulnerabilities, impacts, and adaptation strategies in the face of extremes related to climate variability and change.
- Connections to Modeling and Forecasting: Exploring connections between attribution research and advancing predictive capabilities through state-of-the-art climate models, statistical approaches, and forecasting techniques.
- Socioeconomic Impacts: Assessing the socioeconomic costs of extreme events, including impacts on agriculture, infrastructure, health, and livelihoods.
Organizers:
Stephanie Herring, NOAA NCEI
Andrew Hoell, NOAA PSL
Peter Stott, UK Met Office Hadley Centre and University of Exeter
Explaining Extreme Events from a Climate Perspective
Attribution studies can provide insights into changing drought processes that can inform planning for future water supply, reservoir allocation decisions, and drought triggers.
Attribution studies can provide insights into changing drought processes that can inform planning for future water supply, reservoir allocation decisions, and drought triggers.
The 2021 low solar radiation over southeastern Tibetan Plateau was mainly caused by abnormally strong southerlies and was further enhanced by anthropogenic aerosols and GHGs-induced warming, and consequently reduced vegetation growth.
The 2021 low solar radiation over southeastern Tibetan Plateau was mainly caused by abnormally strong southerlies and was further enhanced by anthropogenic aerosols and GHGs-induced warming, and consequently reduced vegetation growth.
CMIP6 models suggest that extreme fire weather associated with the April 2021 Cape Town wildfire has become 90% more likely in a warmer world.
CMIP6 models suggest that extreme fire weather associated with the April 2021 Cape Town wildfire has become 90% more likely in a warmer world.
Greenhouse gas forcing has increased the likelihood of events like the 2021 wettest September in northern China by approximately twofold, while anthropogenic aerosols play a relatively minor suppressing role.
Greenhouse gas forcing has increased the likelihood of events like the 2021 wettest September in northern China by approximately twofold, while anthropogenic aerosols play a relatively minor suppressing role.
The 2021 northwest Pacific marine heatwave was favored by the atmospheric and oceanic conditions; changes in the mean climate due to anthropogenic warming made the event 43 times more likely.
The 2021 northwest Pacific marine heatwave was favored by the atmospheric and oceanic conditions; changes in the mean climate due to anthropogenic warming made the event 43 times more likely.
GCM ensembles indicate that the October 2021 South Korean heatwave was extremely unlikely to occur without human influences, which corresponds to 2060s’ new normal without ambitious greenhouse gas mitigation.
GCM ensembles indicate that the October 2021 South Korean heatwave was extremely unlikely to occur without human influences, which corresponds to 2060s’ new normal without ambitious greenhouse gas mitigation.
Human influence and persistent low pressure are estimated to make extreme May rainfall in the United Kingdom, as in year 2021, about 1.5 and 3.5 times more likely, respectively.
Human influence and persistent low pressure are estimated to make extreme May rainfall in the United Kingdom, as in year 2021, about 1.5 and 3.5 times more likely, respectively.
CMIP6 simulations suggest that the 2020/21-like severe and long-lasting Iran droughts have become more probable by at least 50% due mainly to anthropogenic greenhouse gas increases.
CMIP6 simulations suggest that the 2020/21-like severe and long-lasting Iran droughts have become more probable by at least 50% due mainly to anthropogenic greenhouse gas increases.
Human-induced warming is estimated to have increased the occurrence probability of events like the record-breaking warm February in East Asia by a factor of 4–20.
Human-induced warming is estimated to have increased the occurrence probability of events like the record-breaking warm February in East Asia by a factor of 4–20.
Anthropogenically forced-warming and La Niña forced-precipitation deficits caused at least a sixfold risk increase for compound extreme low precipitation and high temperature in California–Nevada from October 2020 to September 2021.
Anthropogenically forced-warming and La Niña forced-precipitation deficits caused at least a sixfold risk increase for compound extreme low precipitation and high temperature in California–Nevada from October 2020 to September 2021.
