Predictability and Dynamics of Weather Systems in the Atlantic-European Sector (PANDOWAE)

Description:

This special collection comprises the results of the Research Group “Predictability and Dynamics of Weather Systems in the Atlantic-European Sector” (PANDOWAE), which was funded by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (German Research Council), and which constitutes a major European contribution to the WMO World Weather Research Programme THORPEX. The research interests of PANDOWAE are the predictability and dynamics of weather systems that may lead to high impact weather in the midlatitudes. PANDOWAE research is organised into the three research areas "A: Upper-level Rossby wave trains: generation, propagation and wave-breaking", "B: Moist processes and diabatic Rossby waves", and "C: Ensembles and adaptivity (numerical modeling & predictability)". It includes theoretical studies, numerical modeling, and process studies. Part of these studies were performed in collaboration with major field campaigns such as T-PARC, HyMeX, T-NAWDEX-Falcon and future NAWDEX.

www.pandowae.de

Collection organizers:
Sarah C. Jones, Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach, Germany, and Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Germany
Aurelia Müller, Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Germany

Predictability and Dynamics of Weather Systems in the Atlantic-European Sector (PANDOWAE)

Julian F. Quinting
,
Michael M. Bell
,
Patrick A. Harr
, and
Sarah C. Jones

Abstract

The structure and the environment of Typhoon Sinlaku (2008) were investigated during its life cycle in The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (T-PARC). On 20 September 2008, during the transformation stage of Sinlaku’s extratropical transition (ET), research aircraft equipped with dual-Doppler radar and dropsondes documented the structure of the convection surrounding Sinlaku and low-level frontogenetical processes. The observational data obtained were assimilated with the recently developed Spline Analysis at Mesoscale Utilizing Radar and Aircraft Instrumentation (SAMURAI) software tool. The resulting analysis provides detailed insight into the ET system and allows specific features of the system to be identified, including deep convection, a stratiform precipitation region, warm- and cold-frontal structures, and a dry intrusion. The analysis offers valuable information about the interaction of the features identified within the transitioning tropical cyclone. The existence of dry midlatitude air above warm-moist tropical air led to strong potential instability. Quasigeostrophic diagnostics suggest that forced ascent during warm frontogenesis triggered the deep convective development in this potentially unstable environment. The deep convection itself produced a positive potential vorticity anomaly at midlevels that modified the environmental flow. A comparison of the operational ECMWF analysis and the observation-based SAMURAI analysis exhibits important differences. In particular, the ECMWF analysis does not capture the deep convection adequately. The nonexistence of the deep convection has considerable implications on the potential vorticity structure of the remnants of the typhoon at midlevels. An inaccurate representation of the thermodynamic structure of the dry intrusion has considerable implications on the frontogenesis and the quasigeostrophic forcing.

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Maxi Boettcher
and
Heini Wernli

Abstract

Diabatic Rossby waves (DRWs) are low-tropospheric positive potential vorticity (PV) anomalies in moist and sufficiently baroclinic regions. They regenerate continuously by moist-diabatic processes and potentially develop into explosively intensifying cyclones. In this study a specific DRW-tracking algorithm is developed and applied to operational ECMWF analyses to compile a first climatology of DRWs in the Northern Hemisphere for the years 2001–10. DRWs are more frequent over the North Pacific than over the North Atlantic with on average 81 and 43 systems per year, respectively. Less than 15% of these systems intensify explosively, on average 12 per year over the Pacific and 5 over the Atlantic. DRWs are most frequent in summer but most of the explosively intensifying DRWs occur in autumn and winter. DRWs are generated typically between 30°–50°N over the eastern parts of the continents and the western/central parts of the oceans. They propagate fairly zonally along the midlatitude baroclinic zone. The generation of the initial low-tropospheric PV anomalies goes along with precipitation processes in characteristic flow patterns, which correspond to 1) flow around the subtropical high against the midlatitude baroclinic zone, 2) flow induced by an upper-level cutoff or a (tropical) cyclone against the baroclinic zone, 3) upper-level trough-induced ascent at the baroclinic zone, and 4) PV remnants of a tropical cyclone or a mesoscale convective system that are advected into the baroclinic zone where they start propagating as a DRW. In most cases, explosive intensification of DRWs occurs through interaction with a preexisting upper-level trough.

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Andrea Schneidereit
,
Silke Schubert
,
Pavel Vargin
,
Frank Lunkeit
,
Xiuhua Zhu
,
Dieter H. W. Peters
, and
Klaus Fraedrich

Abstract

Several studies show that the anomalous long-lasting Russian heat wave during the summer of 2010, linked to a long-persistent blocking high, appears mainly as a result of natural atmospheric variability. This study analyzes the large-scale flow structure based on the ECMWF Re-Analysis Interim (ERA-Interim) data (1989–2010). The anomalous long-lasting blocking high over western Russia including the heat wave occurs as an overlay of a set of anticyclonic contributions on different time scales. (i) A regime change in ENSO toward La Niña modulates the quasi-stationary wave structure in the boreal summer hemisphere supporting the eastern European blocking. The polar Arctic dipole mode is enhanced and shows a projection on the mean blocking high. (ii) Together with the quasi-stationary wave anomaly, the transient eddies maintain the long-lasting blocking. (iii) Three different pathways of wave action are identified on the intermediate time scale (~10–60 days). One pathway commences over the eastern North Pacific and includes the polar Arctic region; another one runs more southward and crossing the North Atlantic, continues to eastern Europe; a third pathway southeast of the blocking high describes the downstream development over South Asia.

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Olivia Martius
and
Heini Wernli

Abstract

Tropical, subtropical, and extratropical dynamical processes govern the synoptic-scale evolution of the subtropical jet stream(s) over Africa. However, the relative importance of the respective effects is still under debate and is the focus of this study. Interim ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) data are used to calculate backward trajectories from the subtropical jet over Africa during winter 2005/06. The trajectories allow for studying the jet dynamics from both a potential vorticity (PV) and an angular momentum point of view and for linking the two theoretical frameworks.

Three cases of synoptic-scale Rossby wave breaking in the extratropics and subtropics are presented in detail. They illustrate basic flow configurations where (i) the subtropical jet is mainly forced by tropical dynamics, (ii) extratropical forcing contributes substantially to the jet acceleration, and (iii) strong diabatic processes in the subtropics impact the jet.

The case study results are then generalized for the entire winter season. The main findings are as follows: (i) Approximately 41% of the trajectories reach the subtropical jet from the deep tropics and for these trajectories the nonconservation of angular momentum M due to eddy forcing leads to a decrease of M by about 5%. (ii) A nonnegligible fraction of roughly 18% of the trajectories reaches the subtropical jet from the extratropics. (iii) Wave breaking is instrumental for bringing extratropical, high-PV air southward. (iv) Diabatic processes in the subtropics have a negligible direct effect on the upper-level PV. This is in contrast to observations from the extratropics and might be the consequence of the small planetary vorticity in the tropics and subtropics.

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Jana Čampa
and
Heini Wernli

Abstract

Development of extratropical cyclones can be seen as an interplay of three positive potential vorticity anomalies: an upper-level stratospheric intrusion, low-tropospheric diabatically produced potential vorticity (PV), and a warm anomaly at the surface acting as a surrogate PV anomaly. This study, based on the interim ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) dataset, quantifies the amplitude of the PV anomalies of mature extratropical cyclones in different regions in the Northern Hemisphere on a climatological basis.

A tracking algorithm is applied to sea level pressure (SLP) fields to identify cyclone tracks. Surface potential temperature anomalies Δθ and vertical profiles of PV anomalies ΔPV are calculated at the time of the cyclones’ minimum SLP in a vertical cylinder around the surface cyclone center. To compare the cyclones’ characteristics they are grouped according to their location and intensity. Composite ΔPV profiles are calculated for each region and intensity class at the time of minimum SLP and during the cyclone intensification phase.

In the mature stage all three anomalies are on average larger for intense than for weak winter cyclones [e.g., 0.6 versus 0.2 potential vorticity units (PVU; 1 PVU = 10−6 K kg−1 m2 s−1) at lower levels, and 1.5 versus 0.5 PVU at upper levels]. The regional variability of the cyclones’ vertical structure and the profile evolution is prominent (cyclones in some regions are more sensitive to the amplitude of a particular anomaly than in other regions). Values of Δθ and low-level ΔPV are on average larger in the western parts of the oceans than in the eastern parts. Results for summer are qualitatively similar, except for distinctively weaker surface Δθ values.

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Simon T. K. Lang
,
Sarah C. Jones
,
Martin Leutbecher
,
Melinda S. Peng
, and
Carolyn A. Reynolds

Abstract

The sensitivity of singular vectors (SVs) associated with Hurricane Helene (2006) to resolution and diabatic processes is investigated. Furthermore, the dynamics of their growth are analyzed. The SVs are calculated using the tangent linear and adjoint model of the integrated forecasting system (IFS) of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts with a spatial resolution up to TL255 (~80 km) and 48-h optimization time. The TL255 moist (diabatic) SVs possess a three-dimensional spiral structure with significant horizontal and vertical upshear tilt within the tropical cyclone (TC). Also, their amplitude is larger than that of dry and lower-resolution SVs closer to the center of Helene. Both higher resolution and diabatic processes result in stronger growth being associated with the TC compared to other flow features. The growth of the SVs in the vicinity of Helene is associated with baroclinic and barotropic mechanisms. The combined effect of higher resolution and diabatic processes leads to significant differences of the SV structure and growth dynamics within the core and in the vicinity of the TC. If used to initialize ensemble forecasts with the IFS, the higher-resolution moist SVs cause larger spread of the wind speed, track, and intensity of Helene than their lower-resolution or dry counterparts. They affect the outflow of the TC more strongly, resulting in a larger downstream impact during recurvature. Increasing the resolution or including diabatic effects degrades the linearity of the SVs. While the impact of diabatic effects on the linearity is small at low resolution, it becomes large at high resolution.

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Lars Wiegand
,
Arwen Twitchett
,
Cornelia Schwierz
, and
Peter Knippertz

Abstract

Around 26 May 2008 a pronounced potential vorticity (PV) streamer penetrated from the North Atlantic into the western Mediterranean Sea followed by widespread dust mobilization over the Maghreb region of northwest Africa and a subsequent northward transport into central Europe. At the same time, strong southerly flow over the Mediterranean Sea caused heavy precipitation and flooding at the windward side of the European Alps. Using continuous and feature-based error measures, as well as ensemble correlation techniques, this study investigates the forecast quality and predictability of synoptic and mesoscale aspects of this high-impact event in operational ensemble predictions from nine meteorological centers participating in The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) project. TIGGE is a recently established program providing ensemble forecasts in a standardized format, which allows for an exciting new multimodel approach to investigating the predictability of, for example, high-impact weather and its dynamics. The main conclusions from this study are that 1) the quality of the PV streamer forecasts degrades with lead time showing a general tendency toward too weak Rossby wave; 2) when focusing on the region around the streamer, most models show root-mean-square errors of the same magnitude or larger than the ensemble spread (underdispersive behavior); 3) errors are reduced by about 50% if the comparison is made to each center’s own analysis instead of the ECMWF analysis; 4) peak wind speeds over the Sahara tend to be underpredicted, with differences in model formulation dominating over differences in the representation of the PV streamer; and 5) ensemble-mean multimodel forecasts of 4-day accumulated precipitation appear accurate enough for a successful severe-weather warning.

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Maxi Boettcher
and
Heini Wernli

Abstract

The life cycle of a North Atlantic cyclone in December 2005 that included a rapid propagation phase as a diabatic Rossby wave (DRW) is investigated by means of operational analyses and deterministic forecasts from the ECMWF. A quasigeostrophic omega diagnostic has been applied to assess the impact of upper-level forcing during the genesis, propagation, and intensification phase, respectively. The system was generated in the Gulf of Mexico as a mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) influenced by vertical motion forcing from a nearby upper-level trough. The DRW propagation phase was characterized by a shallow, low-level, diabatically produced potential vorticity (PV) anomaly that rapidly propagated along the southern border of an intense baroclinic zone. No significant upper-level forcing could be identified during this phase of the development. Eventually, explosive intensification occurred as the region of vertical motion forced by an approaching upper-level trough reached the position of the DRW. The rapid intensification of 34 hPa in 24 h led to a mature extratropical cyclone in the central North Atlantic with marked frontal structures associated with a pronounced PV tower.

The performance of four operational deterministic ECMWF forecasts has been investigated for the DRW propagation and cyclone intensification. The forecasts showed a highly variable skill. Despite the fact that the DRW was initially well represented in all forecasts, two of them failed to capture the explosive intensification. By applying a DRW tracking tool, the low-level baroclinicity downstream of the DRW and the moisture supply to the south of the DRW could be identified as the key environmental parameters during DRW propagation. The subsequent cyclone intensification went wrong in two of the forecasts because of the missing interaction of the DRW and the upper-level trough. It is shown that this interaction can fail if the intensity of the DRW and/or the approaching upper-level wave are too weak, or in case of an erroneous structure of the upper-level trough leading to a phasing problem of the vertical interaction with the DRW. Therefore, the DRW intensification bears similar characteristics and forecast challenges as the extratropical reintensification of tropical cyclones.

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Martin Weissmann
,
Florian Harnisch
,
Chun-Chieh Wu
,
Po-Hsiung Lin
,
Yoichiro Ohta
,
Koji Yamashita
,
Yeon-Hee Kim
,
Eun-Hee Jeon
,
Tetsuo Nakazawa
, and
Sim Aberson

Abstract

A unique dataset of targeted dropsonde observations was collected during The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (T-PARC) in the autumn of 2008. The campaign was supplemented by an enhancement of the operational Dropsonde Observations for Typhoon Surveillance near the Taiwan Region (DOTSTAR) program. For the first time, up to four different aircraft were available for typhoon observations and over 1500 additional soundings were collected.

This study investigates the influence of assimilating additional observations during the two major typhoon events of T-PARC on the typhoon track forecast by the global models of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), and the limited-area Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Additionally, the influence of T-PARC observations on ECMWF midlatitude forecasts is investigated.

All models show an improving tendency of typhoon track forecasts, but the degree of improvement varied from about 20% to 40% in NCEP and WRF to a comparably low influence in ECMWF and JMA. This is likely related to lower track forecast errors without dropsondes in the latter two models, presumably caused by a more extensive use of satellite data and four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4D-Var) of ECMWF and JMA compared to three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3D-Var) of NCEP and WRF. The different behavior of the models emphasizes that the benefit gained strongly depends on the quality of the first-guess field and the assimilation system.

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Andreas Schäfler
,
Andreas Dörnbrack
,
Christoph Kiemle
,
Stephan Rahm
, and
Martin Wirth

Abstract

The first collocated measurements during THORPEX (The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment) regional campaign in Europe in 2007 were performed by a novel four-wavelength differential absorption lidar and a scanning 2-μm Doppler wind lidar on board the research aircraft Falcon of the Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR). One mission that was characterized by exceptionally high data coverage (47% for the specific humidity q and 63% for the horizontal wind speed υh ) was selected to calculate the advective transport of atmospheric moisture h along a 1600-km section in the warm sector of an extratropical cyclone. The observations are compared with special 1-hourly model data calculated by the ECMWF integrated forecast system. Along the cross section, the model underestimates the wind speed on average by −2.8% (−0.6 m s−1) and overestimates the moisture at dry layers and in the boundary layer, which results in a wet bias of 17.1% (0.2 g kg−1). Nevertheless, the ECMWF model reproduces quantitatively the horizontally averaged moisture transport in the warm sector. There, the superposition of high low-level humidity and the increasing wind velocities with height resulted in a deep tropospheric layer of enhanced water vapor transport h . The observed moisture transport is variable and possesses a maximum of h = 130 g kg−1 m s−1 in the lower troposphere. The pathways of the moisture transport from southwest via several branches of different geographical origin are identified by Lagrangian trajectories and by high values of the vertically averaged tropospheric moisture transport.

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