Abstract

This study evaluated the spatial variability of trends in simulated snowpack properties across the Rio Grande headwaters of Colorado using the SnowModel snow evolution modeling system. SnowModel simulations were performed using a grid resolution of 100 m and 3-hourly time step over a 34-year period (1984 – 2017). Atmospheric forcing was provided by the Phase 2 North American Land Data Assimilation System, and the simulations accounted for temporal changes in forest canopy from bark-beetle and wildfire disturbances. Annual summary values of simulated snowpack properties (snow metrics; e.g., peak snow water equivalent (SWE), snowmelt rate and timing, and snow sublimation) were used to compute trends across the domain. Trends in simulated snow metrics varied depending on elevation, aspect, and land cover. Statistically significant trends did not occur evenly within the basin, and some areas were more sensitive than others. In addition, there were distinct trend differences between the different snow metrics. Upward trends in mean winter air temperature were 0.3°C decade-1, and downward trends in winter precipitation were -52 mm decade-1. Middle elevation zones, coincident with the greatest volumetric snow water storage, exhibited the greatest sensitivity to changes in peak SWE and snowmelt rate. Across the Rio Grande headwaters, snowmelt rates decreased by 20 percent decade-1, peak SWE decreased by 14 percent decade-1, and total snowmelt quantity decreased by 13 percent decade-1. These snow trends are in general agreement with widespread snow declines that have been reported for this region. This study further quantifies these snow declines and provides trend information for additional snow variables across a greater spatial coverage at finer spatial resolution.

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