Abstract

A total of 14 tropical cyclones (TCs) that formed from 2008 to 2009 over the western North Pacific are simulated to examine the effects that environmental low-frequency and high-frequency vorticity (more than 10 days and less than 10 days, respectively) have on the formations of TCs [where the maximum surface wind ~25 kt (≈13 m s−1)]. Results show that all the simulations can reproduce the formation of a TC in an environment with a large 850-hPa low-frequency vorticity, even if the high-frequency parts are removed from the initial conditions. High-frequency vorticity mainly affects the timing and location of TC formation in such an environment. The 850-hPa vorticity is also analyzed in 3854 tropical cloud clusters that developed in 1981–2009 and may or may not have formed TCs; this reveals that the strength of the low-frequency vorticity is a crucial factor in TC formation. A tropical cloud cluster is expected to develop into a TC in an environment favorable for TC formation in the presence of a large 850-hPa low-frequency vorticity. The lead time for forecasting the formation of a TC can probably be extended under such conditions.

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