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Abstract
Based on a high-resolution (0.1° × 0.1°) regional ocean model covering the entire northern Pacific, this study investigated the seasonal and interannual variability of the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) and the South China Sea Throughflow (SCSTF) as well as their interactions in the Sulawesi Sea. The model efficiency in simulating the general circulations of the western Pacific boundary currents and the ITF/SCSTF through the major Indonesian seas/straits was first validated against the International Nusantara Stratification and Transport (INSTANT) data, the OFES reanalysis, and results from previous studies. The model simulations of 2004–12 were then analyzed, corresponding to the period of the INSTANT program. The results showed that, derived from the North Equatorial Current (NEC)–Mindanao Current (MC)–Kuroshio variability, the Luzon–Mindoro–Sibutu flow and the Mindanao–Sulawesi flow demonstrate opposite variability before flowing into the Sulawesi Sea. Although the total transport of the Mindanao–Sulawesi flow is much larger than that of the Luzon–Mindoro–Sibutu flow, their variability amplitudes are comparable but out of phase and therefore counteract each other in the Sulawesi Sea. Budget analysis of the two major inflows revealed that the Luzon–Mindoro–Sibutu flow is enhanced southward during winter months and El Niño years, when more Kuroshio water intrudes into the SCS. This flow brings more buoyant SCS water into the western Sulawesi Sea through the Sibutu Strait, building up a west-to-east pressure head anomaly against the Mindanao–Sulawesi inflow and therefore resulting in a reduced outflow into the Makassar Strait. The situation is reversed in the summer months and La Niña years, and this process is shown to be more crucially important to modulate the Makassar ITF’s interannual variability than the Luzon–Karimata flow that is primarily driven by seasonal monsoons.
Abstract
Based on a high-resolution (0.1° × 0.1°) regional ocean model covering the entire northern Pacific, this study investigated the seasonal and interannual variability of the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) and the South China Sea Throughflow (SCSTF) as well as their interactions in the Sulawesi Sea. The model efficiency in simulating the general circulations of the western Pacific boundary currents and the ITF/SCSTF through the major Indonesian seas/straits was first validated against the International Nusantara Stratification and Transport (INSTANT) data, the OFES reanalysis, and results from previous studies. The model simulations of 2004–12 were then analyzed, corresponding to the period of the INSTANT program. The results showed that, derived from the North Equatorial Current (NEC)–Mindanao Current (MC)–Kuroshio variability, the Luzon–Mindoro–Sibutu flow and the Mindanao–Sulawesi flow demonstrate opposite variability before flowing into the Sulawesi Sea. Although the total transport of the Mindanao–Sulawesi flow is much larger than that of the Luzon–Mindoro–Sibutu flow, their variability amplitudes are comparable but out of phase and therefore counteract each other in the Sulawesi Sea. Budget analysis of the two major inflows revealed that the Luzon–Mindoro–Sibutu flow is enhanced southward during winter months and El Niño years, when more Kuroshio water intrudes into the SCS. This flow brings more buoyant SCS water into the western Sulawesi Sea through the Sibutu Strait, building up a west-to-east pressure head anomaly against the Mindanao–Sulawesi inflow and therefore resulting in a reduced outflow into the Makassar Strait. The situation is reversed in the summer months and La Niña years, and this process is shown to be more crucially important to modulate the Makassar ITF’s interannual variability than the Luzon–Karimata flow that is primarily driven by seasonal monsoons.
Abstract
The role of the Mindoro Strait–Sibutu Passage pathway in influencing the Luzon Strait inflow to the South China Sea (SCS) and the SCS multilayer circulation is investigated with a high-resolution (0.1° × 0.1°) regional ocean model. Significant changes are evident in the SCS upper-layer circulation (250–900 m) by closing the Mindoro–Sibutu pathway in sensitivity experiments, as Luzon Strait transport is reduced by 75%, from −4.4 to −1.2 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1). Because of the vertical coupling between the upper and middle layers, closing the Mindoro–Sibutu pathway also weakens clockwise circulation in the middle layer (900–2150 m), but there is no significant change in the deep layer (below 2150 m). The Mindoro–Sibutu pathway is an important branch of the SCS throughflow into the Indonesian Seas. It is also the gateway for oceanic waves propagating clockwise around the Philippines Archipelago from the western Pacific Ocean into the eastern SCS, projecting El Niño–Southern Oscillation sea level signals to the SCS, impacting its interannual variations and multilayer circulation. The results provide insights into the dynamics of how upstream and downstream passage throughflows are coupled to affect the general circulation in marginal seas.
Abstract
The role of the Mindoro Strait–Sibutu Passage pathway in influencing the Luzon Strait inflow to the South China Sea (SCS) and the SCS multilayer circulation is investigated with a high-resolution (0.1° × 0.1°) regional ocean model. Significant changes are evident in the SCS upper-layer circulation (250–900 m) by closing the Mindoro–Sibutu pathway in sensitivity experiments, as Luzon Strait transport is reduced by 75%, from −4.4 to −1.2 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1). Because of the vertical coupling between the upper and middle layers, closing the Mindoro–Sibutu pathway also weakens clockwise circulation in the middle layer (900–2150 m), but there is no significant change in the deep layer (below 2150 m). The Mindoro–Sibutu pathway is an important branch of the SCS throughflow into the Indonesian Seas. It is also the gateway for oceanic waves propagating clockwise around the Philippines Archipelago from the western Pacific Ocean into the eastern SCS, projecting El Niño–Southern Oscillation sea level signals to the SCS, impacting its interannual variations and multilayer circulation. The results provide insights into the dynamics of how upstream and downstream passage throughflows are coupled to affect the general circulation in marginal seas.
Abstract
The changes in summer rainfall over the Tarim Basin, China, and the underlying mechanisms have been investigated using the observed rainfall data at 34 stations and the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data during the period of 1961–2007. Results show that the summer rainfall over the Tarim Basin, which exhibits a significant increasing trend during the last half century, is closely related to the summer middle and upper tropospheric cooling over central Asia. Mechanism analysis indicates that the middle and upper tropospheric cooling over central Asia results in a location farther south of the subtropical westerly jet over western and central Asia with anomalous southerly wind at lower levels and ascending motion prevailing over the Tarim Basin. Such anomalies in the atmospheric circulations provide favorable conditions for the enhanced summer rainfall over the Tarim Basin. Further analysis suggests that the weakened South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) could be potentially responsible for the middle and upper tropospheric cooling over central Asia. This is largely through the atmospheric responses to the diabatic heating effect of the SASM. A weakened SASM can result in an anomalous cyclone in the middle and upper troposphere over central Asia. The western part of the anomalous cyclone produces more cold air advection, which leads to the cooling. This study suggests indirect but important effects of the SASM on the summer rainfall over the Tarim Basin.
Abstract
The changes in summer rainfall over the Tarim Basin, China, and the underlying mechanisms have been investigated using the observed rainfall data at 34 stations and the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data during the period of 1961–2007. Results show that the summer rainfall over the Tarim Basin, which exhibits a significant increasing trend during the last half century, is closely related to the summer middle and upper tropospheric cooling over central Asia. Mechanism analysis indicates that the middle and upper tropospheric cooling over central Asia results in a location farther south of the subtropical westerly jet over western and central Asia with anomalous southerly wind at lower levels and ascending motion prevailing over the Tarim Basin. Such anomalies in the atmospheric circulations provide favorable conditions for the enhanced summer rainfall over the Tarim Basin. Further analysis suggests that the weakened South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) could be potentially responsible for the middle and upper tropospheric cooling over central Asia. This is largely through the atmospheric responses to the diabatic heating effect of the SASM. A weakened SASM can result in an anomalous cyclone in the middle and upper troposphere over central Asia. The western part of the anomalous cyclone produces more cold air advection, which leads to the cooling. This study suggests indirect but important effects of the SASM on the summer rainfall over the Tarim Basin.
Application of S_TIDE in Exploration of Seasonal Variations of Internal Tidal Amplitudes in the Northern South China SeaAbstract
An enhanced harmonic analysis (S_TIDE) approach is adopted to examine the seasonal variations of internal tidal amplitudes in the northern South China Sea (SCS). Results of idealized experiments reveal that the seasonality can be captured by S_TIDE. By applying S_TIDE to mooring data, observed seasonality of internal tidal amplitudes in the northern SCS are explored. Not diurnal and semidiurnal internal tides (ITs), but overtides and long-period constituents of ITs exhibit clear seasonal cycles. However, differences between amplitudes of the eastward velocity and the northward counterpart are evident for K1, M2, and MK3, which may be caused by the intensification of background currents. Amplitudes of those ITs are stronger at intersection time between spring and summer in the eastward direction, but weaker in the northward direction. EOF analysis reveals that modes of diurnal ITs are higher than those of semidiurnal ITs, which induces relatively more complicated seasonal variations. In addition to intensification of background currents, influences of surface tides and stratification will also induce variations of internal tidal amplitudes, introducing tremendous difficulty in predicting variation trends of internal tidal amplitudes, which greatly reduces predictability of ITs.
Abstract
An enhanced harmonic analysis (S_TIDE) approach is adopted to examine the seasonal variations of internal tidal amplitudes in the northern South China Sea (SCS). Results of idealized experiments reveal that the seasonality can be captured by S_TIDE. By applying S_TIDE to mooring data, observed seasonality of internal tidal amplitudes in the northern SCS are explored. Not diurnal and semidiurnal internal tides (ITs), but overtides and long-period constituents of ITs exhibit clear seasonal cycles. However, differences between amplitudes of the eastward velocity and the northward counterpart are evident for K1, M2, and MK3, which may be caused by the intensification of background currents. Amplitudes of those ITs are stronger at intersection time between spring and summer in the eastward direction, but weaker in the northward direction. EOF analysis reveals that modes of diurnal ITs are higher than those of semidiurnal ITs, which induces relatively more complicated seasonal variations. In addition to intensification of background currents, influences of surface tides and stratification will also induce variations of internal tidal amplitudes, introducing tremendous difficulty in predicting variation trends of internal tidal amplitudes, which greatly reduces predictability of ITs.
Abstract
The impact of North Indian atmospheric diabatic heating variation on summer rainfall over Central Asia (CA) at an interannual scale during 1960–2019 was investigated from thermal adaptation and water vapor transportation perspective. The results showed that more precipitation in southeastern CA is associated with the southward subtropical westerly jet (SWJ), caused by the ascending motion and weakened water vapor output on the south side. When the SWJ moves southward, the high-level water vapor transportation on the south side changes from outward (−1.9 × 106 kg s−1) to inward (0.6 × 106 kg s−1), and the positive anomalous relative vorticity advections by the basic westerly winds produce ascending anomalies over southeastern CA. The position change in the SWJ was mainly related to atmospheric diabatic heating over northern India (NI). The thermal vorticity adaptation caused by a weakened heating rate over NI leads to an anomalous upper-level cyclone over southeastern CA, and the associated cold temperature advection eventually cools the upper troposphere of southeastern CA and reduces the temperature gradient at mid-to-high latitudes, leading to the southward SWJ. Thermal adaptation of the circulation and temperature anomaly over southeastern CA to the NI thermal forcing were also verified by numerical experiments. Both the abnormal ascending motions and the weakened outward water vapor associated with the southward SWJ, caused by the weakened heating rate over NI, lead to more summer rainfall in southeastern CA. The changes in diabatic heating over NI are closely related to Indian Ocean SST. When the Indian Ocean SST is warmer, the south Asian summer monsoon weakens, causing less precipitation and, thus, a weakened heating rate over NI.
Significance Statement
This study established that the northern Indian atmospheric diabatic heating anomalies associated with Indian Ocean SST variation play an important role in influencing precipitation in central Asia (CA). The weakening of the atmospheric diabatic heating over the NI would not only cause an abnormal cyclone and cooling over southern CA through thermal adaptation but also lead to southward subtropical westerly jet (SWJ), ascending motions, and decreased outward water vapor on the south side in southeastern CA, eventually resulting in more precipitation in southeastern CA. The results emphasize the influence of tropical SST and atmospheric heat sources on midlatitude climate and are important for understanding summer precipitation change in southeastern CA.
Abstract
The impact of North Indian atmospheric diabatic heating variation on summer rainfall over Central Asia (CA) at an interannual scale during 1960–2019 was investigated from thermal adaptation and water vapor transportation perspective. The results showed that more precipitation in southeastern CA is associated with the southward subtropical westerly jet (SWJ), caused by the ascending motion and weakened water vapor output on the south side. When the SWJ moves southward, the high-level water vapor transportation on the south side changes from outward (−1.9 × 106 kg s−1) to inward (0.6 × 106 kg s−1), and the positive anomalous relative vorticity advections by the basic westerly winds produce ascending anomalies over southeastern CA. The position change in the SWJ was mainly related to atmospheric diabatic heating over northern India (NI). The thermal vorticity adaptation caused by a weakened heating rate over NI leads to an anomalous upper-level cyclone over southeastern CA, and the associated cold temperature advection eventually cools the upper troposphere of southeastern CA and reduces the temperature gradient at mid-to-high latitudes, leading to the southward SWJ. Thermal adaptation of the circulation and temperature anomaly over southeastern CA to the NI thermal forcing were also verified by numerical experiments. Both the abnormal ascending motions and the weakened outward water vapor associated with the southward SWJ, caused by the weakened heating rate over NI, lead to more summer rainfall in southeastern CA. The changes in diabatic heating over NI are closely related to Indian Ocean SST. When the Indian Ocean SST is warmer, the south Asian summer monsoon weakens, causing less precipitation and, thus, a weakened heating rate over NI.
Significance Statement
This study established that the northern Indian atmospheric diabatic heating anomalies associated with Indian Ocean SST variation play an important role in influencing precipitation in central Asia (CA). The weakening of the atmospheric diabatic heating over the NI would not only cause an abnormal cyclone and cooling over southern CA through thermal adaptation but also lead to southward subtropical westerly jet (SWJ), ascending motions, and decreased outward water vapor on the south side in southeastern CA, eventually resulting in more precipitation in southeastern CA. The results emphasize the influence of tropical SST and atmospheric heat sources on midlatitude climate and are important for understanding summer precipitation change in southeastern CA.
Abstract
The ocean surface temperature has warmed dramatically over most of the globe in recent decades, which shows the west warmed faster than the east (“La Niña–like” warming) in the equatorial Pacific. It differs from the simulated “El Niño–like” warming in existing studies that discussed the El Niño–induced teleconnection response to global warming. Some studies have indicated that El Niño teleconnections are sensitive to the ocean surface warming patterns, but the mechanisms are still elusive. Here, reanalysis data and numerical experiments were analyzed to investigate how winter El Niño atmospheric teleconnections respond to the historical ocean surface warming. We show that the inhibited effect of the El Niño on the North African winter climate through the suppressed Walker circulation over Atlantic–Africa–Indian Ocean sectors under the ocean surface warming matches the observed changes. Also, the model reproduces the observed weakening of the El Niño–induced Pacific–North American wave and its suppressed downstream propagation in the ocean surface warming scenario because of the reduction in contributions of the vortex stretching to the El Niño–induced wave sources in the subtropical jet streams. Our findings demonstrate the important role of ocean surface warming patterns in the projections of the El Niño–induced atmospheric teleconnection.
Abstract
The ocean surface temperature has warmed dramatically over most of the globe in recent decades, which shows the west warmed faster than the east (“La Niña–like” warming) in the equatorial Pacific. It differs from the simulated “El Niño–like” warming in existing studies that discussed the El Niño–induced teleconnection response to global warming. Some studies have indicated that El Niño teleconnections are sensitive to the ocean surface warming patterns, but the mechanisms are still elusive. Here, reanalysis data and numerical experiments were analyzed to investigate how winter El Niño atmospheric teleconnections respond to the historical ocean surface warming. We show that the inhibited effect of the El Niño on the North African winter climate through the suppressed Walker circulation over Atlantic–Africa–Indian Ocean sectors under the ocean surface warming matches the observed changes. Also, the model reproduces the observed weakening of the El Niño–induced Pacific–North American wave and its suppressed downstream propagation in the ocean surface warming scenario because of the reduction in contributions of the vortex stretching to the El Niño–induced wave sources in the subtropical jet streams. Our findings demonstrate the important role of ocean surface warming patterns in the projections of the El Niño–induced atmospheric teleconnection.
Abstract
Global warming and anthropogenic activities have imposed noticeable impacts on rainfall pattern changes at both spatial and temporal scales in recent decades. Systematic diagnosis of rainfall pattern changes is urgently needed at spatiotemporal scales for a deeper understanding of how climate change produces variations in rainfall patterns. The objective of this study was to identify rainfall pattern changes systematically under climate change at a subcontinental scale along a rainfall gradient ranging from 1800 to 200 mm yr−1 by analyzing centennial rainfall data covering 230 sites from 1910 to 2017 in the Northern Territory of Australia. Rainfall pattern changes were characterized by considering aspects of trends and periodicity of annual rainfall, abrupt changes, rainfall distribution, and extreme rainfall events. Our results illustrated that rainfall patterns in northern Australia have changed significantly compared with the early period of the twentieth century. Specifically, 1) a significant increasing trend in annual precipitation associated with greater variation in recent decades was observed over the entire study area, 2) temporal variations represented a mean rainfall periodicity of 27 years over wet to dry regions, 3) an abrupt change of annual rainfall amount occurred consistently in both humid and arid regions during the 1966–75 period, and 4) partitioned long-term time series of rainfall demonstrated a wetter rainfall distribution trend across coastal to inland areas that was associated with more frequent extreme rainfall events in recent decades. The findings of this study could facilitate further studies on the mechanisms of climate change that influence rainfall pattern changes.
Significance Statement
Characterizing long-term rainfall pattern changes under different rainfall conditions is important to understand the impacts of climate change. We conducted diagnosis of centennial rainfall pattern changes across wet to dry regions in northern Australia and found that rainfall patterns have noticeably changed in recent decades. The entire region has a consistent increasing trend of annual rainfall with higher variation. Meanwhile, the main shifting period of rainfall pattern was during 1966–75. Although annual rainfall seems to become wetter with an increasing trend, more frequent extreme rainfall events should also be noticed for assessing the impacts of climate changes. The findings support further study to understand long-term rainfall pattern changes under climate change.
Abstract
Global warming and anthropogenic activities have imposed noticeable impacts on rainfall pattern changes at both spatial and temporal scales in recent decades. Systematic diagnosis of rainfall pattern changes is urgently needed at spatiotemporal scales for a deeper understanding of how climate change produces variations in rainfall patterns. The objective of this study was to identify rainfall pattern changes systematically under climate change at a subcontinental scale along a rainfall gradient ranging from 1800 to 200 mm yr−1 by analyzing centennial rainfall data covering 230 sites from 1910 to 2017 in the Northern Territory of Australia. Rainfall pattern changes were characterized by considering aspects of trends and periodicity of annual rainfall, abrupt changes, rainfall distribution, and extreme rainfall events. Our results illustrated that rainfall patterns in northern Australia have changed significantly compared with the early period of the twentieth century. Specifically, 1) a significant increasing trend in annual precipitation associated with greater variation in recent decades was observed over the entire study area, 2) temporal variations represented a mean rainfall periodicity of 27 years over wet to dry regions, 3) an abrupt change of annual rainfall amount occurred consistently in both humid and arid regions during the 1966–75 period, and 4) partitioned long-term time series of rainfall demonstrated a wetter rainfall distribution trend across coastal to inland areas that was associated with more frequent extreme rainfall events in recent decades. The findings of this study could facilitate further studies on the mechanisms of climate change that influence rainfall pattern changes.
Significance Statement
Characterizing long-term rainfall pattern changes under different rainfall conditions is important to understand the impacts of climate change. We conducted diagnosis of centennial rainfall pattern changes across wet to dry regions in northern Australia and found that rainfall patterns have noticeably changed in recent decades. The entire region has a consistent increasing trend of annual rainfall with higher variation. Meanwhile, the main shifting period of rainfall pattern was during 1966–75. Although annual rainfall seems to become wetter with an increasing trend, more frequent extreme rainfall events should also be noticed for assessing the impacts of climate changes. The findings support further study to understand long-term rainfall pattern changes under climate change.
Abstract
Acoustic agglomerations have increasingly attracted widespread attention as a cost-effective and environmentally friendly approach for fog removal and weather modification. In this study, research on precipitation interference and the agglomeration performance of droplet aerosols under large-scale acoustic waves was presented. In total, 49 field experiments in the source region of the Yellow River in the summer of 2019 were performed to reveal the influences of acoustic waves on precipitation, such as the radar reflectivity factor Z, rain rate R, and raindrop size distribution (DSD). A monitoring system that consisted of rain gauges and raindrop spectrometers was employed to monitor near-ground rainfall within a 5-km radius of the field site. The ground-based observations showed that acoustic waves could significantly affect the rainfall distribution and microstructure of precipitation particles. The average values of rainfall increased by 18.98%, 10.61%, and 8.74% within 2, 3, and 5 km, respectively, of the operation center with acoustic application. The changing trend of microphysical parameters of precipitation was roughly in line with variation of acoustic waves for stratiform cloud. Moreover, there was a good quadratic relationship between the spectral parameters λ and μ. Raindrop kinetic energy e K and the radar reflectivity factor Z both exhibited a power function relationship with R.
Abstract
Acoustic agglomerations have increasingly attracted widespread attention as a cost-effective and environmentally friendly approach for fog removal and weather modification. In this study, research on precipitation interference and the agglomeration performance of droplet aerosols under large-scale acoustic waves was presented. In total, 49 field experiments in the source region of the Yellow River in the summer of 2019 were performed to reveal the influences of acoustic waves on precipitation, such as the radar reflectivity factor Z, rain rate R, and raindrop size distribution (DSD). A monitoring system that consisted of rain gauges and raindrop spectrometers was employed to monitor near-ground rainfall within a 5-km radius of the field site. The ground-based observations showed that acoustic waves could significantly affect the rainfall distribution and microstructure of precipitation particles. The average values of rainfall increased by 18.98%, 10.61%, and 8.74% within 2, 3, and 5 km, respectively, of the operation center with acoustic application. The changing trend of microphysical parameters of precipitation was roughly in line with variation of acoustic waves for stratiform cloud. Moreover, there was a good quadratic relationship between the spectral parameters λ and μ. Raindrop kinetic energy e K and the radar reflectivity factor Z both exhibited a power function relationship with R.
Abstract
Eastern China (EC) suffered an extreme drought with long-lasting duration and record-breaking intensity in late summer–autumn 2019. Our diagnosed results show that the central Pacific (CP) El Niño, in tandem with warm sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) over the Kuroshio Extension (KE) region, induces the meridionally elongated cyclonic circulation anomalies stretching from the western North Pacific (WNP) to the Yellow Sea. Its western flank corresponds to overwhelming low-level northerly wind anomalies over EC, which result in deficient moisture and anomalous descent over EC and hence cause the extreme drought in 2019. To investigate the relative contributions of SSTAs over different regions, we performed sensitivity experiments, and analyzed the relationship between extreme drought like what occurred in 2019 (a 2019Drought-like event) and the SSTAs in CMIP6 historical simulations. Modeling evidences reveal that both warm SSTAs over the central equatorial Pacific and the KE region are indispensable for shaping the meridionally elongated cyclone anomaly. Specifically, the cyclone anomaly over the WNP induced by CP El Niño aligns with the cyclone anomaly over the Yellow Sea induced by the warm SSTAs over the KE region, merging into a meridionally stretched cyclone anomaly to the east of EC. Consequently, the northerly anomalies stretch across EC, leading to unfavorable atmospheric conditions and the rainfall deficit there. Projection results show that the occurrence probability of a 2019Drought-like event will increase by 20% (decrease by 40%–50%) under a high (medium-low) emission scenario compared to present-day climate, indicating the nonlinear response of extreme drought to different emission scenarios and the urgency of carbon emission reduction.
Significance Statement
An extreme drought hit the Eastern China (EC) region in 2019 and caused tremendous losses. This study proposed that both the 2019 CP El Niño and the warm SST anomalies over the Kuroshio Extension (KE) region induce the meridionally elongated circulation anomalies and the resultant extreme drought. We showed that the typical circulation anomalies induced by central Pacific (CP) El Niño cannot totally explain the meridionally elongated circulation anomalies in 2019. Our modeling evidences confirmed the indispensable role of warm SST anomalies over KE region in the 2019 extreme drought’s formation. The projection results show that extreme drought like that in 2019 will occur more (less) frequently under a high (medium-low) emission scenario compared to modern-day level, indicating the urgency of carbon emission reduction.
Abstract
Eastern China (EC) suffered an extreme drought with long-lasting duration and record-breaking intensity in late summer–autumn 2019. Our diagnosed results show that the central Pacific (CP) El Niño, in tandem with warm sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) over the Kuroshio Extension (KE) region, induces the meridionally elongated cyclonic circulation anomalies stretching from the western North Pacific (WNP) to the Yellow Sea. Its western flank corresponds to overwhelming low-level northerly wind anomalies over EC, which result in deficient moisture and anomalous descent over EC and hence cause the extreme drought in 2019. To investigate the relative contributions of SSTAs over different regions, we performed sensitivity experiments, and analyzed the relationship between extreme drought like what occurred in 2019 (a 2019Drought-like event) and the SSTAs in CMIP6 historical simulations. Modeling evidences reveal that both warm SSTAs over the central equatorial Pacific and the KE region are indispensable for shaping the meridionally elongated cyclone anomaly. Specifically, the cyclone anomaly over the WNP induced by CP El Niño aligns with the cyclone anomaly over the Yellow Sea induced by the warm SSTAs over the KE region, merging into a meridionally stretched cyclone anomaly to the east of EC. Consequently, the northerly anomalies stretch across EC, leading to unfavorable atmospheric conditions and the rainfall deficit there. Projection results show that the occurrence probability of a 2019Drought-like event will increase by 20% (decrease by 40%–50%) under a high (medium-low) emission scenario compared to present-day climate, indicating the nonlinear response of extreme drought to different emission scenarios and the urgency of carbon emission reduction.
Significance Statement
An extreme drought hit the Eastern China (EC) region in 2019 and caused tremendous losses. This study proposed that both the 2019 CP El Niño and the warm SST anomalies over the Kuroshio Extension (KE) region induce the meridionally elongated circulation anomalies and the resultant extreme drought. We showed that the typical circulation anomalies induced by central Pacific (CP) El Niño cannot totally explain the meridionally elongated circulation anomalies in 2019. Our modeling evidences confirmed the indispensable role of warm SST anomalies over KE region in the 2019 extreme drought’s formation. The projection results show that extreme drought like that in 2019 will occur more (less) frequently under a high (medium-low) emission scenario compared to modern-day level, indicating the urgency of carbon emission reduction.
Abstract
Langmuir turbulence (LT) due to the Craik–Leibovich vortex force had a clear impact on the thermal response of the ocean mixed layer to Supertyphoon Haitang (2005) east of the Luzon Strait. This impact is investigated using a 3D wave–current coupled framework consisting of the Princeton Ocean Model with the generalized coordinate system (POMgcs) and the Simulating Waves Nearshore (SWAN) wave model. The Coriolis–Stokes forcing (CSF), the Craik–Leibovich vortex forcing (CLVF), and the second-moment closure model of LT developed by Harcourt are introduced into the circulation model. The coupled system is able to reproduce the upper-ocean temperature and surface mixed layer depth reasonably well during the forced stage of the supertyphoon. The typhoon-induced “cold suction” and “heat pump” processes are significantly affected by LT. Local LT mixing strengthened the sea surface cooling by more than 0.5°C in most typhoon-affected regions. Besides LT, Lagrangian advection of temperature also modulates the SST cooling, inducing a negative (positive) SST difference in the vicinity of the typhoon center (outside of the cooling region). In addition, CLVF has the same order of magnitude as the horizontal advection in the typhoon-induced strong-vorticity region. While the geostrophy is broken down during the forced stage of Haitang, CLVF can help establish and maintain typhoon-induced quasigeostrophy during and after the typhoon. Finally, the effect of LT on the countergradient turbulent flux under the supertyphoon is discussed.
Abstract
Langmuir turbulence (LT) due to the Craik–Leibovich vortex force had a clear impact on the thermal response of the ocean mixed layer to Supertyphoon Haitang (2005) east of the Luzon Strait. This impact is investigated using a 3D wave–current coupled framework consisting of the Princeton Ocean Model with the generalized coordinate system (POMgcs) and the Simulating Waves Nearshore (SWAN) wave model. The Coriolis–Stokes forcing (CSF), the Craik–Leibovich vortex forcing (CLVF), and the second-moment closure model of LT developed by Harcourt are introduced into the circulation model. The coupled system is able to reproduce the upper-ocean temperature and surface mixed layer depth reasonably well during the forced stage of the supertyphoon. The typhoon-induced “cold suction” and “heat pump” processes are significantly affected by LT. Local LT mixing strengthened the sea surface cooling by more than 0.5°C in most typhoon-affected regions. Besides LT, Lagrangian advection of temperature also modulates the SST cooling, inducing a negative (positive) SST difference in the vicinity of the typhoon center (outside of the cooling region). In addition, CLVF has the same order of magnitude as the horizontal advection in the typhoon-induced strong-vorticity region. While the geostrophy is broken down during the forced stage of Haitang, CLVF can help establish and maintain typhoon-induced quasigeostrophy during and after the typhoon. Finally, the effect of LT on the countergradient turbulent flux under the supertyphoon is discussed.
