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- Author or Editor: A. JAMES WAGNER x
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Abstract
No abstract available.
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WEATHER AND CIRCULATION OF AUGUST 1981
Record-Breaking Heat Wave in the West
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No abstract available.
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No abstract available.
WEATHER AND CIRCULATION OF APRIL 1980
Heavy Precipitation in the South but Developing Drought in the Northern Great Plains
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No abstract available.
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No abstract available.
WEATHER AND CIRCULATION OF JANUARY 1975
Predominantly Mild but with a Severe Mid-Month Blizzard
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No abstract available.
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No abstract available.
WEATHER AND CIRCULATION OF APRIL 1975
Stormy with Record Cold
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No abstract available.
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No abstract available.
WEATHER AND CIRCULATION OP JANUARY 1974
Another January with Rapid Midmonth Warming
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No abstract available.
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No abstract available.
WEATHER AND CIRCULATION OF JANUARY 1973
Strong Warming Trend Around Midmonth
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No Abstract Available.
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WEATHER AND CIRCULATION OF APRIL 1973
A Stormy Month With Widespread Flooding
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No Abstract Available.
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No Abstract Available.
Abstract
Linear regression equations relating monthly mean temperature anomaly to average monthly snow depth and its anomaly were derived for 15 selected stations, using 8 yr of data. It was found that, depending on the characteristics of the station location, from about 10 to 55 percent of the variance of the monthly mean temperature anomaly could be explained in terms of the average monthly snow depth or its anomaly.
Abstract
Linear regression equations relating monthly mean temperature anomaly to average monthly snow depth and its anomaly were derived for 15 selected stations, using 8 yr of data. It was found that, depending on the characteristics of the station location, from about 10 to 55 percent of the variance of the monthly mean temperature anomaly could be explained in terms of the average monthly snow depth or its anomaly.
Abstract
In contrast to short and extended range forecasts, predictions for periods beyond 5 days use time-averaged, midtropospheric height fields as their primary guidance. As time ranges are increased to 3O- and 90-day outlooks, guidance increasingly relies on statistical techniques using autocorrelation fields rather than numerical weather prediction (NWP) products as the primary prediction tool.
The basis for the medium-range 6- to 10-day forecast is a mean 500 mb height and anomaly field for the forecast period, derived from a mix of output from two different numerical models, with some statistical and subjective modification added if desired.
The monthly or 30-day outlook is based on a subjectively constructed mean 700 mb prognostic map based on available NWP mean height and anomaly fields out to 10 days, the appropriate 700 mb 1-month lag auto-correlation field, and subjective use of teleconnection and empirical orthogonal function patterns for consistency.
A quantitative midtropospheric height and anomaly map is not constructed for the seasonal (90-day) outlook, but statistically significant height indications are obtained from a series of seasonal 700 mb lag autocorrelation fields going back as far as 2 1/1 years. Numerical weather prediction products do not enter into the seasonal forecast, but boundary forcing by sea surface temperature anomalies, particularly in the Pacific, is considered during the seasons these factors have been shown to have a significant effect on the mean circulation. Extensive use is made of teleconnections to obtain a consistent overall qualitative concept of the expected pattern.
Mean surface temperature and precipitation anomalies expressed either in terms of probabilities or categories are the main forecast products. The skill varies regionally and seasonally, is considerably less than for short-range forecasts, and declines slowly with increasing length of the forecast period.
Abstract
In contrast to short and extended range forecasts, predictions for periods beyond 5 days use time-averaged, midtropospheric height fields as their primary guidance. As time ranges are increased to 3O- and 90-day outlooks, guidance increasingly relies on statistical techniques using autocorrelation fields rather than numerical weather prediction (NWP) products as the primary prediction tool.
The basis for the medium-range 6- to 10-day forecast is a mean 500 mb height and anomaly field for the forecast period, derived from a mix of output from two different numerical models, with some statistical and subjective modification added if desired.
The monthly or 30-day outlook is based on a subjectively constructed mean 700 mb prognostic map based on available NWP mean height and anomaly fields out to 10 days, the appropriate 700 mb 1-month lag auto-correlation field, and subjective use of teleconnection and empirical orthogonal function patterns for consistency.
A quantitative midtropospheric height and anomaly map is not constructed for the seasonal (90-day) outlook, but statistically significant height indications are obtained from a series of seasonal 700 mb lag autocorrelation fields going back as far as 2 1/1 years. Numerical weather prediction products do not enter into the seasonal forecast, but boundary forcing by sea surface temperature anomalies, particularly in the Pacific, is considered during the seasons these factors have been shown to have a significant effect on the mean circulation. Extensive use is made of teleconnections to obtain a consistent overall qualitative concept of the expected pattern.
Mean surface temperature and precipitation anomalies expressed either in terms of probabilities or categories are the main forecast products. The skill varies regionally and seasonally, is considerably less than for short-range forecasts, and declines slowly with increasing length of the forecast period.
