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Andrew R. Solow and Anand Patwardhan

Abstract

Singular spectrum analysis is commonly used in climatology to extract a trend from a noisy time series. Implicit in this method is the association of trends with high variance. In many cases, it may be more natural to associate trends with smoothness. This paper describes how singular spectrum analysis can be modified to incorporate this idea. The modified approach is illustrated using the annual central England temperature series.

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Andrew R. Solow and James M. Broadus

Abstract

Probabilistic forecasts of the occurrence of precipitation have been used routinely in the United States since 1965. Studies of the reliability of such forecasts often show a tendency towards over-forecasting (i.e., for forecast probabilities to exceed observed relative frequencies). A simple model is described that explains over-forecasting in terms of an asymmetric loss function. The model is applied to some results of a previous study.

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Andrew R. Solow and Laura J. Moore

Abstract

The detection of a trend in hurricane activity in the North Atlantic basin has been restricted by the incompleteness of the record prior to 1946. In an earlier paper, the complete record of U.S. landfalling hurricanes was used to extend the period of analysis back to 1930. In this paper, a further extension is made back to 1900. In doing so, the assumption in the earlier paper of an exponential linear trend is relaxed and the trend is estimated nonparametrically. The results show no significant trend in basinwide hurricane activity over the period 1900–98.

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Gerrit Hansen, Maximilian Auffhammer, and Andrew R. Solow

Abstract

There is growing interest in assessing the role of climate change in observed extreme weather events. Recent work in this area has focused on estimating a measure called attributable risk. A statistical formulation of this problem is described and used to construct a confidence interval for attributable risk. The resulting confidence is shown to be surprisingly wide even in the case where the event of interest is unprecedented in the historical record.

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