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Jie He
,
Puyu Feng
,
Bin Wang
,
Wei Zhuang
,
Yongqiang Zhang
,
De Li Liu
,
Jamie Cleverly
,
Alfredo Huete
, and
Qiang Yu

Abstract

Global warming and anthropogenic activities have imposed noticeable impacts on rainfall pattern changes at both spatial and temporal scales in recent decades. Systematic diagnosis of rainfall pattern changes is urgently needed at spatiotemporal scales for a deeper understanding of how climate change produces variations in rainfall patterns. The objective of this study was to identify rainfall pattern changes systematically under climate change at a subcontinental scale along a rainfall gradient ranging from 1800 to 200 mm yr−1 by analyzing centennial rainfall data covering 230 sites from 1910 to 2017 in the Northern Territory of Australia. Rainfall pattern changes were characterized by considering aspects of trends and periodicity of annual rainfall, abrupt changes, rainfall distribution, and extreme rainfall events. Our results illustrated that rainfall patterns in northern Australia have changed significantly compared with the early period of the twentieth century. Specifically, 1) a significant increasing trend in annual precipitation associated with greater variation in recent decades was observed over the entire study area, 2) temporal variations represented a mean rainfall periodicity of 27 years over wet to dry regions, 3) an abrupt change of annual rainfall amount occurred consistently in both humid and arid regions during the 1966–75 period, and 4) partitioned long-term time series of rainfall demonstrated a wetter rainfall distribution trend across coastal to inland areas that was associated with more frequent extreme rainfall events in recent decades. The findings of this study could facilitate further studies on the mechanisms of climate change that influence rainfall pattern changes.

Significance Statement

Characterizing long-term rainfall pattern changes under different rainfall conditions is important to understand the impacts of climate change. We conducted diagnosis of centennial rainfall pattern changes across wet to dry regions in northern Australia and found that rainfall patterns have noticeably changed in recent decades. The entire region has a consistent increasing trend of annual rainfall with higher variation. Meanwhile, the main shifting period of rainfall pattern was during 1966–75. Although annual rainfall seems to become wetter with an increasing trend, more frequent extreme rainfall events should also be noticed for assessing the impacts of climate changes. The findings support further study to understand long-term rainfall pattern changes under climate change.

Restricted access
Pengfei Shi
,
Bin Wang
,
Yujun He
,
Hui Lu
,
Kun Yang
,
Shiming Xu
,
Wenyu Huang
,
Li Liu
,
Juanjuan Liu
,
Lijuan Li
, and
Yong Wang

Abstract

The land surface is a potential source of climate predictability over the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes but has received less attention than sea surface temperature in this regard. This study quantified the degree to which realistic land initialization contributes to interannual climate predictability over Europe based on a coupled climate system model named FGOALS-g2. The potential predictability provided by the initialization, which incorporates the soil moisture and soil temperature of a land surface reanalysis product into the coupled model with a dimension-reduced projection four-dimensional variational data assimilation (DRP-4DVar)-based weakly coupled data assimilation (WCDA) system, was analyzed first. The effective predictability (i.e., prediction skill) of the hindcasts by FGOALS-g2 with realistic and well-balanced initial conditions from the initialization were then evaluated. Results show an enhanced interannual prediction skill for summer surface air temperature and precipitation in the hindcast over Europe, demonstrating the potential benefit from realistic land initialization. This study highlights the significant contributions of land surface to interannual predictability of summer climate over Europe.

Open access
Hao He
,
Hailong Wang
,
Zhaoyong Guan
,
Haishan Chen
,
Qiang Fu
,
Muyin Wang
,
Xiquan Dong
,
Chunguang Cui
,
Likun Wang
,
Bin Wang
,
Gang Chen
,
Zhanqing Li
, and
Da-Lin Zhang
Free access
Howard J. Diamond
,
Carl J. Schreck III
,
Adam Allgood
,
Emily J. Becker
,
Eric S. Blake
,
Francis G. Bringas
,
Suzana J. Camargo
,
Lin Chen
,
Caio A. S. Coelho
,
Nicolas Fauchereau
,
Stanley B. Goldenberg
,
Gustavo Goni
,
Michael S. Halpert
,
Qiong He
,
Zeng-Zhen Hu
,
Philip J. Klotzbach
,
John A. Knaff
,
Arun Kumar
,
Chris W. Landsea
,
Michelle L’Heureux
,
I.-I. Lin
,
Andrew M. Lorrey
,
Jing-Jia Luo
,
Andrew D. Magee
,
Richard J. Pasch
,
Alexandre B. Pezza
,
Matthew Rosencrans
,
Blair C. Trewin
,
Ryan E. Truchelut
,
Bin Wang
,
Hui Wang
,
Kimberly M. Wood
, and
John-Mark Woolley
Free access
Stephen Baxter
,
Gerald D Bell
,
Eric S Blake
,
Francis G Bringas
,
Suzana J Camargo
,
Lin Chen
,
Caio A. S Coelho
,
Ricardo Domingues
,
Stanley B Goldenberg
,
Gustavo Goni
,
Nicolas Fauchereau
,
Michael S Halpert
,
Qiong He
,
Philip J Klotzbach
,
John A Knaff
,
Michelle L'Heureux
,
Chris W Landsea
,
I.-I Lin
,
Andrew M Lorrey
,
Jing-Jia Luo
,
Andrew D Magee
,
Richard J Pasch
,
Petra R Pearce
,
Alexandre B Pezza
,
Matthew Rosencrans
,
Blair C Trewin
,
Ryan E Truchelut
,
Bin Wang
,
H Wang
,
Kimberly M Wood
, and
John-Mark Woolley
Free access
Howard J. Diamond
,
Carl J. Schreck III
,
Emily J. Becker
,
Gerald D. Bell
,
Eric S. Blake
,
Stephanie Bond
,
Francis G. Bringas
,
Suzana J. Camargo
,
Lin Chen
,
Caio A. S. Coelho
,
Ricardo Domingues
,
Stanley B. Goldenberg
,
Gustavo Goni
,
Nicolas Fauchereau
,
Michael S. Halpert
,
Qiong He
,
Philip J. Klotzbach
,
John A. Knaff
,
Michelle L'Heureux
,
Chris W. Landsea
,
I.-I. Lin
,
Andrew M. Lorrey
,
Jing-Jia Luo
,
Kyle MacRitchie
,
Andrew D. Magee
,
Ben Noll
,
Richard J. Pasch
,
Alexandre B. Pezza
,
Matthew Rosencrans
,
Michael K. Tippet
,
Blair C. Trewin
,
Ryan E. Truchelut
,
Bin Wang
,
Hui Wang
,
Kimberly M. Wood
,
John-Mark Woolley
, and
Steven H. Young
Free access