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Abstract
On 19 May 1977, a severe squall line formed and moved through the National Severe Storms Laboratory observing network in Oklahoma, producing heavy rain, hail, strong winds, and tornadoes. The squall line is examined at two times: 1434 and 1502 CST. Doppler analysis of part of the squall line reveals four convective cells in the line, developing cells ahead of the line, a trailing precipitation region, and a convective rainband at the western edge of the system. The updrafts within the convective cells on the leading edge tilt westward in the lower levels and eastward near the tropopause. Convective updrafts and downdrafts are fed by low-level air entering the squall line from the front. Surface network analysis and gust front penetration by an instrumented aircraft indicated strong convergence along the leading edge of one of the stronger cells in the line. Horizontal, line-relative flow perpendicular to the squall line and within the trailing precipitation area is from east to west (front to back) at all levels, weakening with height. An exception to this is an area of weak (≤3 m s−1) rear inflow into the stratiform precipitation region in the midlevels. Flow parallel to the squall line is stronger, in general, than the perpendicular flow. A composite rawinsonde analysis shows ascending motion within the troposphere over most of the squall line region. A conceptual model is developed for 19 May 1977 and is compared to conceptual models of tropical squall lines and of the 22 May 1976 Oklahoma squall line.
Abstract
On 19 May 1977, a severe squall line formed and moved through the National Severe Storms Laboratory observing network in Oklahoma, producing heavy rain, hail, strong winds, and tornadoes. The squall line is examined at two times: 1434 and 1502 CST. Doppler analysis of part of the squall line reveals four convective cells in the line, developing cells ahead of the line, a trailing precipitation region, and a convective rainband at the western edge of the system. The updrafts within the convective cells on the leading edge tilt westward in the lower levels and eastward near the tropopause. Convective updrafts and downdrafts are fed by low-level air entering the squall line from the front. Surface network analysis and gust front penetration by an instrumented aircraft indicated strong convergence along the leading edge of one of the stronger cells in the line. Horizontal, line-relative flow perpendicular to the squall line and within the trailing precipitation area is from east to west (front to back) at all levels, weakening with height. An exception to this is an area of weak (≤3 m s−1) rear inflow into the stratiform precipitation region in the midlevels. Flow parallel to the squall line is stronger, in general, than the perpendicular flow. A composite rawinsonde analysis shows ascending motion within the troposphere over most of the squall line region. A conceptual model is developed for 19 May 1977 and is compared to conceptual models of tropical squall lines and of the 22 May 1976 Oklahoma squall line.
Abstract
A three-dimensional thermodynamic retrieval method has been developed and tested for application to deep convective clouds. To test the accuracy of the method and for sensitivity studies, output from a three-dimensional numerical cloud model has been utilized in place of observations. Input to the method are wind component and liquid water fields and basic output variables within the same volume are the deviation of potential temperature and perturbed pressure from their respective horizontal averages. The derivation of the retrieval equations from the momentum equations and the programming of these equations is shown to be correct by comparison of the retrieved fields with output from the numerical model. Other cases test the sensitivity of the retrieved result to inadequacies potentially present in observed (Doppler radar) wind and water fields. Tests are carried out examining the problem of time resolution in the observed data, possible inadequacies in observation and parameterization of turbulence, and accuracy in the measurement of liquid water fields. In other experiments velocity perturbations are added to the input velocity fields to simulate very crudely the errors which might be present on various scales in observed fields, and the sensitivity of the retrieved fields to these errors is assessed. Filtering the result is shown to be effective if the predominant scale within which input errors occur is known.
Abstract
A three-dimensional thermodynamic retrieval method has been developed and tested for application to deep convective clouds. To test the accuracy of the method and for sensitivity studies, output from a three-dimensional numerical cloud model has been utilized in place of observations. Input to the method are wind component and liquid water fields and basic output variables within the same volume are the deviation of potential temperature and perturbed pressure from their respective horizontal averages. The derivation of the retrieval equations from the momentum equations and the programming of these equations is shown to be correct by comparison of the retrieved fields with output from the numerical model. Other cases test the sensitivity of the retrieved result to inadequacies potentially present in observed (Doppler radar) wind and water fields. Tests are carried out examining the problem of time resolution in the observed data, possible inadequacies in observation and parameterization of turbulence, and accuracy in the measurement of liquid water fields. In other experiments velocity perturbations are added to the input velocity fields to simulate very crudely the errors which might be present on various scales in observed fields, and the sensitivity of the retrieved fields to these errors is assessed. Filtering the result is shown to be effective if the predominant scale within which input errors occur is known.
Abstract
Through a case study approach the motion of a dryline (on 16 May 1991) within a synoptically active environment in the southern plains, along which severe storms ultimately developed, is examined in detail. Observations from research aircraft, surface mesonetwork stations, mobile ballooning vehicles, radar, wind profilers, and operational surface and upper air networks are examined and combined. Additionally, output from the operational mesoscale Eta Model is examined to compare predictions of dryline motion with observations and to aid in interpretation of observations.
The dryline on this day advanced rapidly eastward and included formation of a bulge; additionally, in at least two instances it exhibited redevelopment (loss of definition at one location and gain at another). Aircraft observations revealed that an eastward redevelopment occurred in the early afternoon and was characterized by a series of four “steps” along the western edge of the boundary layer moisture. The westernmost and easternmost steps coincide with the locations of the dryline before and after redevelopment, respectively. The retreat of the dryline in the central and southern portion of the analysis domain in the late afternoon included both continuous motion and redevelopment toward the west-northwest. This dual-mode retreat of the dryline was accompanied by gradual backing of the winds and moistening in low levels.
The Eta Model forecast initialized at 1200 UTC produced dryline features that were qualitatively similar to observed fields. The eastward motion of a broad area of enhanced moisture gradient agreed well with observations following an initial spinup period. A north–south moisture convergence axis preceded the rapid eastward motion of the dryline by several hours. Lack of subsidence in the air behind the modeled dryline leads to the conclusion that processes other than downward transfer of horizontal momentum by larger-scale motions (that would support eastward advection) produced the rapid dryline motion and observed eastward dryline bulge. Results of diagnosing physical processes affecting model dryline motion point toward boundary layer vertical mixing coupled with advection of dry air aloft as vital components in rapid advance of the dryline eastward in this synoptically active case.
Abstract
Through a case study approach the motion of a dryline (on 16 May 1991) within a synoptically active environment in the southern plains, along which severe storms ultimately developed, is examined in detail. Observations from research aircraft, surface mesonetwork stations, mobile ballooning vehicles, radar, wind profilers, and operational surface and upper air networks are examined and combined. Additionally, output from the operational mesoscale Eta Model is examined to compare predictions of dryline motion with observations and to aid in interpretation of observations.
The dryline on this day advanced rapidly eastward and included formation of a bulge; additionally, in at least two instances it exhibited redevelopment (loss of definition at one location and gain at another). Aircraft observations revealed that an eastward redevelopment occurred in the early afternoon and was characterized by a series of four “steps” along the western edge of the boundary layer moisture. The westernmost and easternmost steps coincide with the locations of the dryline before and after redevelopment, respectively. The retreat of the dryline in the central and southern portion of the analysis domain in the late afternoon included both continuous motion and redevelopment toward the west-northwest. This dual-mode retreat of the dryline was accompanied by gradual backing of the winds and moistening in low levels.
The Eta Model forecast initialized at 1200 UTC produced dryline features that were qualitatively similar to observed fields. The eastward motion of a broad area of enhanced moisture gradient agreed well with observations following an initial spinup period. A north–south moisture convergence axis preceded the rapid eastward motion of the dryline by several hours. Lack of subsidence in the air behind the modeled dryline leads to the conclusion that processes other than downward transfer of horizontal momentum by larger-scale motions (that would support eastward advection) produced the rapid dryline motion and observed eastward dryline bulge. Results of diagnosing physical processes affecting model dryline motion point toward boundary layer vertical mixing coupled with advection of dry air aloft as vital components in rapid advance of the dryline eastward in this synoptically active case.
Abstract
Long-lived thunderstorms were initiated during the afternoon of 26 May 1991 ahead of a dryline in northwestern Oklahoma. Various reasons for initiation in this particular along-dryline location are investigated through analysis of observations collected during the Cooperative Oklahoma Profiler Studies—1991 field program. Observing systems included in situ and radar instrumentation aboard a research aircraft, soundings from mobile laboratories, a mesonetwork of surface stations, meteorological satellites, and operational networks of surface and upper-air stations.
Elevated moistening east of the dryline revealed by soundings and aircraft observations in combination with thermal plume activity was apparently insufficient to promote sustained convection on this day without aid from an additional lifting mechanism. Satellite observations reveal scattered convection along the dryline by midafternoon and a convective cloud line intersecting the dryline at an angle in the area of most pronounced storm initiation, extending southwestward into the dry air. Another prominent feature on this day was a mesoscale bulge along the dryline extending northeastward into southwest Kansas. Deep convection was initiated along this bulge, but was in general short-lived.
Potential causes of the lifting associated with the cloud line that was apparently key to the preferred location for storm development in northwest Oklahoma were investigated: (a) a mesoscale circulation resulting from horizontal differences in radiative (temperature) properties of the underlying surface and (b) upward motion induced by an upper-level mesoscale disturbance. Analysis of vegetative and surface temperature distributions from satellite observations suggests a potential (more research is needed) link between surface characteristics and the development of the dryline bulge and observed cloud line through horizontal differences in vertical momentum transport. A run of the currently operational eta model indicates some skill in predicting dryline location and motion and predicts upward motion in the northern part of the region that was generally more convectively active, but shows no indication of upper-level support in the vicinity of the observed cloud line.
Abstract
Long-lived thunderstorms were initiated during the afternoon of 26 May 1991 ahead of a dryline in northwestern Oklahoma. Various reasons for initiation in this particular along-dryline location are investigated through analysis of observations collected during the Cooperative Oklahoma Profiler Studies—1991 field program. Observing systems included in situ and radar instrumentation aboard a research aircraft, soundings from mobile laboratories, a mesonetwork of surface stations, meteorological satellites, and operational networks of surface and upper-air stations.
Elevated moistening east of the dryline revealed by soundings and aircraft observations in combination with thermal plume activity was apparently insufficient to promote sustained convection on this day without aid from an additional lifting mechanism. Satellite observations reveal scattered convection along the dryline by midafternoon and a convective cloud line intersecting the dryline at an angle in the area of most pronounced storm initiation, extending southwestward into the dry air. Another prominent feature on this day was a mesoscale bulge along the dryline extending northeastward into southwest Kansas. Deep convection was initiated along this bulge, but was in general short-lived.
Potential causes of the lifting associated with the cloud line that was apparently key to the preferred location for storm development in northwest Oklahoma were investigated: (a) a mesoscale circulation resulting from horizontal differences in radiative (temperature) properties of the underlying surface and (b) upward motion induced by an upper-level mesoscale disturbance. Analysis of vegetative and surface temperature distributions from satellite observations suggests a potential (more research is needed) link between surface characteristics and the development of the dryline bulge and observed cloud line through horizontal differences in vertical momentum transport. A run of the currently operational eta model indicates some skill in predicting dryline location and motion and predicts upward motion in the northern part of the region that was generally more convectively active, but shows no indication of upper-level support in the vicinity of the observed cloud line.
Abstract
A dryline that occurred on 16 May 1991 within a synoptically active environment is examined in detail using research aircraft, radar, surface, satellite, and upper air observations. The work focuses on multiple boundaries in the dryline environment and initiation of tornadic storms in two along-line areas.
Aircraft measurements in the boundary layer reveal that both the east–west extent of moisture gradients and the number of regions containing large moisture gradients vary in the along-dryline direction. Aircraft penetrations of thinlines observed in clear air return from radar reveal that all thinlines are associated with convergence and a moisture gradient, and that more distinct thinlines are associated with stronger convergence. However, significant moisture gradients are not always associated with either thinlines or convergent signatures.
Convective clouds on this day formed at the dryline rather than significantly east of the dryline. The three thunderstorm cells that occurred in east-central Oklahoma developed along a 20-km section of the dryline south of a dryline bulge and within a 30-min period. The storms appear to have developed in this location owing to enhanced convergence resulting from backed winds in the moist air in response to lowered pressure in the warm air to the northwest. Aircraft measurements in the boundary layer and satellite-sensed surface temperature both indicate localized warming in this area to the northwest.
Farther north there was a 70–100-km segment along the dryline where few convective clouds formed during the afternoon. This coincided with a swath of cooler boundary layer air that resulted from reduced surface heating over an area that received significant thunderstorm rainfall during the previous night.
A severe thunderstorm complex that developed along the Kansas–Oklahoma border was initiated at the intersection of the dryline and a cloud line that extended into the dry air. An aircraft penetration of the cloud line about 12 km from its intersection with the dryline shows convergence and deepened low-level moisture at the cloud line. The cloud field that evolved into the cloud line over a period of several hours developed over the area that had received the heaviest rainfall during the previous night.
Abstract
A dryline that occurred on 16 May 1991 within a synoptically active environment is examined in detail using research aircraft, radar, surface, satellite, and upper air observations. The work focuses on multiple boundaries in the dryline environment and initiation of tornadic storms in two along-line areas.
Aircraft measurements in the boundary layer reveal that both the east–west extent of moisture gradients and the number of regions containing large moisture gradients vary in the along-dryline direction. Aircraft penetrations of thinlines observed in clear air return from radar reveal that all thinlines are associated with convergence and a moisture gradient, and that more distinct thinlines are associated with stronger convergence. However, significant moisture gradients are not always associated with either thinlines or convergent signatures.
Convective clouds on this day formed at the dryline rather than significantly east of the dryline. The three thunderstorm cells that occurred in east-central Oklahoma developed along a 20-km section of the dryline south of a dryline bulge and within a 30-min period. The storms appear to have developed in this location owing to enhanced convergence resulting from backed winds in the moist air in response to lowered pressure in the warm air to the northwest. Aircraft measurements in the boundary layer and satellite-sensed surface temperature both indicate localized warming in this area to the northwest.
Farther north there was a 70–100-km segment along the dryline where few convective clouds formed during the afternoon. This coincided with a swath of cooler boundary layer air that resulted from reduced surface heating over an area that received significant thunderstorm rainfall during the previous night.
A severe thunderstorm complex that developed along the Kansas–Oklahoma border was initiated at the intersection of the dryline and a cloud line that extended into the dry air. An aircraft penetration of the cloud line about 12 km from its intersection with the dryline shows convergence and deepened low-level moisture at the cloud line. The cloud field that evolved into the cloud line over a period of several hours developed over the area that had received the heaviest rainfall during the previous night.
Abstract
The Piecewise Parabolic Method (PPM), a numerical technique developed in astrophysics for modeling fluid flows with strong shocks and discontinuities is adapted for treating sharp gradients in small-scale meteorological flows. PPM differs substantially from conventional gridpoint techniques in three ways. First, PPM is a finite volume scheme, and thus represents physical variables as averages over a grid zone rather than single values at discrete points. Second, a unique, monotonic parabola is fit to the zone average of each dependent variable using information from neighboring zone averages. As shown in a series of one- and two-dimensional linear advection experiments, the use of parabolas provides for extremely accurate advection, particularly of sharp gradients. Furthermore, the monotonicity constraint renders PPM's solutions free from Gibbs oscillations. PPM's third attribute is that each zone boundary is treated as a discontinuity. Using the method of characteristic the nonlinear flux of quantities between zones is obtained by solving a Riemann problem at each zone boundary in alternating one-dimensional sweeps through the grid. This methodology provides a highly accurate, physically based solution both in the vicinity of sharp gradients and in regions where the flow is smooth.
The ability of PPM to accurately depict the evolution of sharp gradients in small-scale, nonlinear flows is examined by simulating a buoyant thermal and a density current in two dimensions. Comparisons made against Midpoint cloud models reveal that PPM provides superior solutions at equivalent spatial resolution, particularly with regard to resolving shear lines that subsequently become unstable. The PPM model has excellent mass and energy conservation properties, and exhibits virtually no numerical dissipation of resolvable modes. Although PPM is not yet as economical as a conventional gridpoint model, we anticipate that its efficiency can be greatly improved by modifying the treatment of acoustic modes.
Abstract
The Piecewise Parabolic Method (PPM), a numerical technique developed in astrophysics for modeling fluid flows with strong shocks and discontinuities is adapted for treating sharp gradients in small-scale meteorological flows. PPM differs substantially from conventional gridpoint techniques in three ways. First, PPM is a finite volume scheme, and thus represents physical variables as averages over a grid zone rather than single values at discrete points. Second, a unique, monotonic parabola is fit to the zone average of each dependent variable using information from neighboring zone averages. As shown in a series of one- and two-dimensional linear advection experiments, the use of parabolas provides for extremely accurate advection, particularly of sharp gradients. Furthermore, the monotonicity constraint renders PPM's solutions free from Gibbs oscillations. PPM's third attribute is that each zone boundary is treated as a discontinuity. Using the method of characteristic the nonlinear flux of quantities between zones is obtained by solving a Riemann problem at each zone boundary in alternating one-dimensional sweeps through the grid. This methodology provides a highly accurate, physically based solution both in the vicinity of sharp gradients and in regions where the flow is smooth.
The ability of PPM to accurately depict the evolution of sharp gradients in small-scale, nonlinear flows is examined by simulating a buoyant thermal and a density current in two dimensions. Comparisons made against Midpoint cloud models reveal that PPM provides superior solutions at equivalent spatial resolution, particularly with regard to resolving shear lines that subsequently become unstable. The PPM model has excellent mass and energy conservation properties, and exhibits virtually no numerical dissipation of resolvable modes. Although PPM is not yet as economical as a conventional gridpoint model, we anticipate that its efficiency can be greatly improved by modifying the treatment of acoustic modes.
Abstract
Mesoscale convective systems that affect a limited area within the southern plains of the United States during late morning hours during the warm season are investigated. A climatological study over a 5-yr period documents the initiation locations and times, tracks, associated severe weather, and relation to synoptic features over the lifetimes of 145 systems. An assessment is also made of system evolution in each case during the late morning. For a subset of 48 systems, vertical profiles of basic variables from Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) model analyses are used to characterize the environment of each system. Scatter diagrams and discriminant analyses are used to assess which environmental variables are most promising in helping to determine which of two classes of evolutionary character each system will follow.
Abstract
Mesoscale convective systems that affect a limited area within the southern plains of the United States during late morning hours during the warm season are investigated. A climatological study over a 5-yr period documents the initiation locations and times, tracks, associated severe weather, and relation to synoptic features over the lifetimes of 145 systems. An assessment is also made of system evolution in each case during the late morning. For a subset of 48 systems, vertical profiles of basic variables from Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) model analyses are used to characterize the environment of each system. Scatter diagrams and discriminant analyses are used to assess which environmental variables are most promising in helping to determine which of two classes of evolutionary character each system will follow.
Abstract
The factors that influence the evolution of convective systems during the late morning over much of the Great Plains are not understood well. It is known that in this region the majority of such systems dissipate or decrease in intensity during this period. With this fact in mind, a summary is given of comments made during the occurrence of morning convective systems by forecasters at two National Weather Service (NWS) offices relating to factors that were most important in determining their forecasts of system evolution. In addition, results of a preliminary climatological study covering eight summer months for 181 summer precipitation systems affecting the county warning areas of the two NWS offices during late morning are presented. Revealed among the significant system characteristics is that approximately two-thirds of the included systems either decreased in intensity or dissipated during the late morning.
Abstract
The factors that influence the evolution of convective systems during the late morning over much of the Great Plains are not understood well. It is known that in this region the majority of such systems dissipate or decrease in intensity during this period. With this fact in mind, a summary is given of comments made during the occurrence of morning convective systems by forecasters at two National Weather Service (NWS) offices relating to factors that were most important in determining their forecasts of system evolution. In addition, results of a preliminary climatological study covering eight summer months for 181 summer precipitation systems affecting the county warning areas of the two NWS offices during late morning are presented. Revealed among the significant system characteristics is that approximately two-thirds of the included systems either decreased in intensity or dissipated during the late morning.
