Abstract

Attempts to predict the impact on a tidal regime of large engineering structures are generally based on the use of a numerical model which is calibrated to reproduce the natural tidal regime and then rerun with the structures in place. It is usually assumed that the “input” tide at the open boundary is unchanged by the structures, though this is clearly wrong in principle.

We show how errors in this procedure can be corrected for, or at least estimated, using output from the numerical model and estimates of the impedance of the exterior ocean. The ocean impedance can be expressed as an infinite series in terms of the normal modes of the ocean, with some terms allowing for near-resonant enhancement of particular modes, and the infinite tail corresponding to a local source-like behavior which can be estimated independently.

Application of the technique to the problem of predicting the impact of Fundy tidal power suggests that any predicted change may be uncertain to about ±25% of the change in mass flux across the open boundary. This uncertainty could amount to ±4% of the tidal range for a large tidal power development.

It is clear that numerical models used in this type of problem should generally extend to the edge of the continental shelf. The role of side boundaries from the coast to the edge of the shelf is uncertain, although in the Fundy problem there is little mass flux across them so that they appear not to be important.

We also estimate that the impact of Fundy tidal power development on global ocean tides would be a change of a few millimeters in M₂.

Abstract

During the initial stages of the deepening of the surface mixed layer, the rate of increase of potential energy is proportional to the input of energy to the mixed layer by the wind. In an attempt to reconcile an apparent discrepancy between the rate of deepening in laboratory experiments (Kato and Phillips,1969) and in the ocean (Denman and Miyake, 1973), a simple model for the momentum and energy transfer by the wind to surface waves and the mixed layer is suggested. The net transfer of momentum τ _ml is the wind stress τ less the local growth of surface wave momentum and the divergence of the surface wave momentum flux, and the net energy transfer Ė _ml is the work Ė done on the waves by the wind less the local growth of surface wave energy, the divergence of the surface wave energy flux and the viscous dissipation of the waves. Using the JONSWAP wave observations, the net momentum transfer is 0.97τ (Hasselmann et al., 1973). Using a. simple momentum transfer function, allowing direct generation of long gravity waves and capillary-gravity waves, to estimate work done on the waves, the energy actually transferred to the mixed layer is a few percent of _τ U ₀, where U ₁₀ is the 10 m wind speed. The oceanic and laboratory rates of deepening of the mixed layer appear roughly consistent. In addition, the flow in the mixed layer apparently adjusts itself so that the surface flow is Ė _ml /τ _ml .

Abstract

The Green's function for a semi-infinite ocean with depth a function of distance from the boundary is developed numerically for the M₂ frequency and with Coriolis frequency and depth profile appropriate to the continental slope off the Gulf of Maine. This involves numerical integration of the linearized shallow water equations for all longshore wavenumbers, followed by numerical Fourier transformation. This variable-depth Green's function is approximately equal to Buchwald's (1971) constant-depth Green's function for distances along the boundary greater than the width of the slope, and at very short range tends to limiting values which can be approximated analytically.

The Green's function, when combined with currents from Greenberg's (1979) numerical model of the Bay of Fundy and Gulf of Maine, is used to explain substantial observed variations in M₂ amplitude and phase along the edge of the shelf off the Gulf of Maine; the variable-depth Green's function produces significantly better results than the constant-depth Green's function. The results support the basic premise that the M₂ elevation at the shelf edge in the absence of the Gulf of Maine would be fairly constant, and suggest ways of deriving open boundary input for tidal models of coastal seas with a minimum of offshore gaging.

Abstract

Procedures are described for normalizing the radiometric calibration of image radiances obtained from the suite of geostationary weather satellites that contributed data to the international Satellite Cloud Climatology Project. The key step is comparison of coincident and collocated measurements made by each satellite and the concurrent Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) on the “afternoon” NOAA polar-orbiting weather satellite at the same viewing geometry. The results of this comparison allow transfer of the AVHRR absolute calibration, which has been established over the whole series, to the radiometers on the geostationary satellites. Results are given for Meteosat-2, Metcosat-3, and Meteosat-4, for GOES-5, GOES-6, and GOES-7, for GMS-2, GMS-3, and GMS-4 and for Insat-IB, The relative stability of the calibrations of these radiance data is estimated to be within ±3%, the uncertainty of the absolute calibrations is estimated to be less than 10%. The remaining uncertainties are at least two times smaller than for the original radiance data.

Abstract

The retrieval of ice cloud microphysical and optical properties from satellite-based infrared observation remains a challenging research topic, partly because of the sensitivity of observed infrared radiances to many surface and atmospheric parameters that vary on fine spatial and temporal scales. In this study, the sensitivity of an infrared-based ice cloud retrieval to effective cloud temperature is investigated, with a focus on the effects of cloud-top height and geometric thickness. To illustrate the sensitivity, the authors first simulate brightness temperatures at 8.5 and 11.0 μm using the discrete ordinates radiative transfer (DISORT) model for five cloud-top heights ranging from 8 to 16 km and for varying cloud geometric thicknesses of 1, 2, 3, and 5 km. The simulations are performed across a range of visible optical thicknesses from 0.1 to 10 and ice cloud effective diameters from 30 to 100 μm. Furthermore, the effective particle size and optical thickness of ice clouds are retrieved from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) measurements on the basis of a lookup-table approach. Specifically, the infrared brightness temperatures are simulated from the collocated Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) level-2 product at 28 atmospheric levels and prescribed ice cloud parameters. Variations of the retrieved effective particle size and optical thickness versus cloud-top height and geometric thickness are investigated. Results show that retrievals based on the 8.5- and 11.0-μm bispectral approach are most valid for cloud-top temperatures of less than 224 K with visible optical thickness values between 2 and 5. The present retrievals are also compared with the collection-5 MODIS level-2 ice cloud product.

Abstract

Radiance observations from Earth-observing satellites have a significant positive impact on numerical weather prediction (NWP) forecasts, but some spectral regions are not fully exploited. Observations from hyperspectral infrared (IR) sounders in the longwave region (650-1100 cm⁻¹), for instance, are routinely assimilated in many NWP models, but observations in the shortwave region (2155-2550 cm⁻¹) are not. Each of these regions provides information on the temperature structure of the atmosphere, but the shortwave IR (SWIR) region is considered challenging to assimilate due to noise equivalent delta temperature (NEDT) that is highly variable depending on scene brightness temperature and to phenomena that are difficult to model, like non-Local Thermodynamic Equilibrium (NLTE) and solar reflectance. With recent advances in small-satellite technology, SWIR temperature sounders may provide an agile and cost-effective complement to the current constellation of IR sounders. Therefore, a better understanding of the use and impact of SWIR observations in data assimilation for NWP is warranted. In part one of this study, as presented here, the amount of unique information (as determined by Empirical Orthogonal Decomposition (EOD)) made available to a data assimilation system by Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) SWIR observations is reviewed, recent advancements to the Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM) for the simulation of CrIS shortwave radiances are tested, and enhancements to NOAA’s Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) for the assimilation of CrIS SWIR observations are implemented and evaluated. Part two of this study, which seeks to assess the value of assimilating shortwave IR observations in global NWP, is also introduced.

Abstract

The assimilation of data from hyperspectral infrared sounders in global data assimilation systems has historically been focused on observations in the longwave infrared (LWIR) region of the spectrum (650-1100 cm⁻¹), despite the often concurrent availability of measurements from the shortwave infrared (SWIR) region of the spectrum (2150-2550 cm⁻¹), because issues (like solar effects) have generally prevented the assimilation of SWIR observations. Recent advances in radiative transfer models have worked to address some of the previous challenges in simulating SWIR observations, and the assimilation of SWIR data (e.g. from potential future small-satellites) is now a feasible prospect. Still, a better understanding of how these observations perform in a data assimilation system and impact resulting analyses and NWP forecasts is necessary. In this study, the value of SWIR observations in global NWP is assessed by assimilating SWIR observations from the Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) in NOAA’s Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS). The methodologies used to enable the assimilation of these observations, including the implementation of a scene-dependent observation error and the enhancement of quality control procedures, are discussed, as are the results of Observing System Experiments (OSEs) conducted to evaluate the impact of assimilating SWIR observations on forecast skill. The overall results show that SWIR assimilation produces similar forecast impacts to LWIR assimilation. The ability to demonstrate that the assimilation or SWIR observations in NWP is a realistic prospect may help to shape future constellations of small-satellites to serve as a beneficial complement to the current constellation if hyperspectral IR sounders.

Abstract

—J. Blunden and T. Boyer

In 2023, La Niña conditions that generally prevailed in the eastern Pacific Ocean from mid-2020 into early 2023 gave way to a strong El Niño by October. Atmospheric concentrations of Earth’s major greenhouse gases—carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide—all increased to record-high levels. The annual global average carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere rose to 419.3±0.1 ppm, which is 50% greater than the pre-industrial level. The growth from 2022 to 2023 was 2.8 ppm, the fourth highest in the record since the 1960s.

The combined short-term effects of El Niño and the long-term effects of increasing levels of heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere contributed to new records for many essential climate variables reported here. The annual global temperature across land and oceans was the highest in records dating as far back as 1850, with the last seven months (June–December) having each been record warm. Over land, the globally averaged temperature was also record high. Dozens of countries reported record or near-record warmth for the year, including China and continental Europe as a whole (warmest on record), India and Russia (second warmest), and Canada (third warmest). Intense and widespread heatwaves were reported around the world. In Vietnam, an all-time national maximum temperature record of 44.2°C was observed at Tuong Duong on 7 May, surpassing the previous record of 43.4°C at Huong Khe on 20 April 2019. In Brazil, the air temperature reached 44.8°C in Araçuaí in Minas Gerais on 20 November, potentially a new national record and 12.8°C above normal.

The effect of rising temperatures was apparent in the cryosphere, where snow cover extent by June 2023 was the smallest in the 56-year record for North America and seventh smallest for the Northern Hemisphere overall. Heatwaves contributed to the greatest average mass balance loss for Alpine glaciers around the world since the start of the record in 1970. Due to rapid volume loss beginning in 2021, St. Anna Glacier in Switzerland and Ice Worm Glacier in the United States disappeared completely. In August, as a direct result of glacial thinning over the past 20 years, a glacial lake on a tributary of the Mendenhall Glacier in Alaska burst through its ice dam and caused unprecedented flooding on Mendenhall River near Juneau.

Across the Arctic, the annual surface air temperature was the fourth highest in the 124-year record, and summer (July–September) was record warm. Smaller-than-normal snow cover extent in May and June contributed to the third-highest average peak tundra greenness in the 24-year record. In September, Arctic minimum sea ice extent was the fifth smallest in the 45-year satellite record. The 17 lowest September extents have all occurred in the last 17 years.

In Antarctica, temperatures for much of the year were up to 6°C above average over the Weddell Sea and along coastal Dronning Maud Land. The Antarctic Peninsula also experienced well-above-average temperatures during the 2022/23 melt season, which contributed to its fourth consecutive summer of above-average surface melt. On 21 February, Antarctic sea ice extent and sea ice area both reached all-time lows, surpassing records set just a year earlier. Over the course of the year, new daily record-low sea ice extents were set on 278 days. In some instances, these daily records were set by a large margin, for example, the extent on 6 July was 1.8 million km² lower than the previous record low for that day.

Across the global oceans, the annual sea surface temperature was the highest in the 170-year record, far surpassing the previous record of 2016 by 0.13°C. Daily and monthly records were set from March onward, including an historic-high daily global mean sea surface temperature of 18.99°C recorded on 22 August. Approximately 94% of the ocean surface experienced at least one marine heatwave in 2023, while 27% experienced at least one cold spell. Globally averaged ocean heat content from the surface to 2000-m depth was record high in 2023, increasing at a rate equivalent to ∼0.7 Watts per square meter of energy applied over Earth’s surface. Global mean sea level was also record high for the 12th consecutive year, reaching 101.4 mm above the 1993 average when satellite measurements began, an increase of 8.1±1.5 mm over 2022 and the third highest year-over-year increase in the record.

A total of 82 named tropical storms were observed during the Northern and Southern Hemispheres’ storm seasons, below the 1991–2020 average of 87. Hurricane Otis became the strongest landfalling hurricane on record for the west coast of Mexico at 140 kt (72 m s⁻¹), causing at least 52 fatalities and $12–16 billion U.S. dollars in damage. Freddy became the world’s longest-lived tropical cyclones on record, developing into a tropical cyclone on 6 February and finally dissipating on 12 March. Freddy crossed the full width of the Indian Ocean and made one landfall in Madagascar and two in Mozambique. In the Mediterranean Sea—outside of traditional tropical cyclone basins—heavy rains and flooding from Storm Daniel killed more than 4300 people and left more than 8000 missing in Libya.

The record-warm temperatures in 2023 created conditions that helped intensify the hydrological cycle. Measurements of total-column water vapor in the atmosphere were the highest on record, while the fraction of cloud area in the sky was the lowest since records began in 1980. The annual global mean precipitation total over land surfaces for 2023 was among the lowest since 1979, but global one-day maximum totals were close to average, indicating an increase in rainfall intensity.

In July, record-high areas of land across the globe (7.9%) experienced extreme drought, breaking the previous record of 6.2% in July 2022. Overall, 29.7% of land experienced moderate or worse categories of drought during the year, also a record. Mexico reported its driest (and hottest) year since the start of its record in 1950. In alignment with hot and prolonged dry conditions, Canada experienced its worst national wildfire season on record. Approximately 15 million hectares burned across the country, which was more than double the previous record from 1989. Smoke from the fires were transported far into the United States and even to western European countries. August to October 2023 was the driest three-month period in Australia in the 104-year record. Millions of hectares of bushfires burned for weeks in the Northern Territory. In South America, extreme drought developed in the latter half of the year through the Amazon basin. By the end of October, the Rio Negro at Manaus, a major tributary of the Amazon River, fell to its lowest water level since records began in 1902.

The transition from La Niña to El Niño helped bring relief to the prolonged drought conditions in equatorial eastern Africa. However, El Niño along with positive Indian Ocean dipole conditions also contributed to excessive rainfall that resulted in devastating floods over southeastern Ethiopia, Somalia, and Kenya during October to December that displaced around 1.5 million people. On 5 September, the town of Zagora, Greece, broke a national record for highest daily rainfall (754 mm in 21 hours, after which the station ceased reporting) due to Storm Daniel; this one-day accumulation was close to Zagora’s normal annual total.