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Austin G. Clark
and
Daniel J. Cecil

Abstract

The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) was used to investigate interannual variability of lightning from 1998 to 2014 within the 38°S–38°N range. Previous studies have indicated that the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is one significant contributor to interannual lightning variability, potentially the dominant mechanism on the global scale. This period of 16 years contained four warm- (El Niño), eight cold- (La Niña), and four neutral-phase ENSO years based on the oceanic Niño index. Large magnitude lightning anomalies were found during the warm phase of ENSO, with mean warm-phase anomalies of >10 flashes (1000 km)−2 min−1 in north-central Africa and Argentina. This includes a +35 flashes (1000 km)−2 min−1 anomaly in Argentina during the 2009 El Niño. In general, large-scale anomalies of thermodynamic properties and upper-atmospheric vertical motion coincided with the lightning anomalies observed in both Africa and South America. The anomaly over north-central Africa, however, was characterized by a 6-week shift in the annual lightning maximum with the warm phase, a result of the more complex environmental response to ENSO over the Sahel. The most consistent ENSO anomalies with appreciable lightning were found in southeastern Africa, northwestern Brazil, central Mexico, and the southern Red Sea. Of these, all but the Mexico region had enhanced lightning with the cold phase and suppressed lightning with the warm phase.

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Thomas A. Jones
and
Daniel J. Cecil

Abstract

Three hurricanes, Claudette (2003), Isabel (2003), and Dora (1999), were selected to examine the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme with Microwave Imagery (SHIPS-MI) forecast accuracy for three particular storm types. This research was conducted using model analyses and tropical cyclone best-track data, with forecasts generated from a dependent sample. The model analyses and best-track data are assumed to be a “perfect” representation of the actual event (e.g., perfect prog assumption). Analysis of intensity change forecasts indicated that SHIPS-MI performed best, compared to operational SHIPS output, for tropical cyclones that were intensifying from tropical storm to hurricane intensity. Passive microwave imagery, which is sensitive to the intensity and coverage of precipitation, improved intensity forecasts during these periods with a positive intensity change contribution resulting from above normal inner-core precipitation. Forecast improvement was greatest for 12–36-h forecasts, where the microwave contribution to SHIPS-MI was greatest. Once a storm reached an intensity close to its maximum potential intensity, as in the case of Isabel and Dora, both SHIPS and SHIPS-MI incorrectly forecast substantial weakening despite the positive contribution from microwave data. At least in Dora’s case, SHIPS-MI forecasts were slightly stronger than those of SHIPS. Other important contributions to SHIPS-MI forecasts were examined to determine their importance relative to the microwave inputs. Inputs related to sea surface temperature (SST) and persistence–climatology proved to be very important to intensity change forecasts, as expected. These predictors were the primary factor leading to the persistent weakening forecasts made by both models for Isabel and Dora. For Atlantic storms (Claudette and Isabel), the contribution from shear also proved important at characterizing the conduciveness of the environment toward intensification. However, the shear contribution was often small as a result of multiple offsetting shear-related predictors. Finally, it was observed that atmospheric parameters not included in SHIPS, such as eddy momentum flux, could substantially affect the intensity, leading to large forecast errors. This was especially true for the Claudette intensity change forecasts throughout its life cycle.

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Kenneth D. Leppert II
and
Daniel J. Cecil

Abstract

Passive microwave brightness temperatures (BTs) collected above severe thunderstorms using the Advanced Microwave Precipitation Radiometer and Conical Scanning Millimeter-Wave Imaging Radiometer during the Midlatitude Continental Convective Clouds Experiment are compared with a hydrometeor identification applied to dual-polarimetric Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler radar data collected at Vance Air Force Base, Oklahoma (KVNX). The goal of this work is to determine the signatures of various hydrometeor species in terms of BTs measured at frequencies used by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission Microwave Imager. Results indicate that hail is associated with an ice-scattering signature at all frequencies examined, including 10.7 GHz. However, it appears that frequencies ≤ 37.1 GHz are most useful for identifying hail. Low-level (below 2.5 km) hail becomes probable for a BT below 240 K at 19.4 GHz, 170 K at 37.1 GHz, 90 K at 85.5 GHz, 80 K at 89.0 GHz, 100 K at 165.5 GHz, and 100 K at 183.3 ± 7 GHz. Graupel may be distinguished from hail and profiles without any hydrometeor species by its strong scattering signature at higher frequencies (e.g., 165.5 GHz) and its relative lack of scattering at frequencies ≤ 19.4 GHz. There is a clearer distinction between profiles that contain liquid precipitation and profiles without any hydrometeors when the liquid is associated above with hail and/or graupel (i.e., a hydrometeor category with a strong scattering signature) than when the liquid is associated with smaller ice. Near-surface precipitation is much more likely for a 19.4-GHz BT < 250 K, 37.1-GHz BT < 240 K, 89.0-GHz BT < 220 K, and 165.5-GHz BT < 140 K.

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Sarah D. Bang
and
Daniel J. Cecil

Abstract

Several studies in the literature have developed approaches to diagnose hail storms from satellite-borne passive microwave imagery and build nearly global climatologies of hail. This paper uses spaceborne Ku-band radar measurements from the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission Dual-Frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) to validate several passive microwave approaches. We assess the retrievals on the basis of how tightly they constrain the radar reflectivity at −20°C and how this measured radar reflectivity aloft varies geographically. The algorithm that combines minimum 19-GHz polarization corrected temperature (PCT) with a 37-GHz PCT depression normalized by tropopause height constrains the radar reflectivity most tightly and gives the least appearance of regional biases. A retrieval that is based on a 19-GHz PCT threshold of 261K also produces tightly clustered profiles of radar reflectivity, with little regional bias. An approach using regionally adjusted minimum 37-GHz PCT performs relatively well, but our results indicate it may overestimate hail in some subtropical and midlatitude regions. A threshold applied to the minimum 37-GHz PCT (≤230 K), without any scaling by region or probability of hail, overestimates hail in the tropics and underestimates beyond the tropics. For all retrieval approaches, storms identified as having hail tended to have radar reflectivity profiles that are consistent with general expectations for hailstorms (reflectivity > 50 dBZ below the 0°C level, and > 40 dBZ extending far above 0°C). Profiles from oceanic regions tended to have more rapidly decreasing reflectivity with height than profiles from other regions. Subtropical, high-latitude, and high-terrain land profiles had the slowest decreases of reflectivity with height.

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Kenneth D. Leppert II
and
Daniel J. Cecil

Abstract

Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Microwave Imager (GMI) brightness temperatures (BTs) were simulated over a case of severe convection in Texas using ground-based S-band radar and the Atmospheric Radiative Transfer Simulator. The median particle diameter D o of a normalized gamma distribution was varied for different hydrometeor types under the constraint of fixed radar reflectivity to better understand how simulated GMI BTs respond to changing particle size distribution parameters. In addition, simulations were conducted to assess how low BTs may be expected to reach from realistic (although extreme) particle sizes or concentrations. Results indicate that increasing D o for cloud ice, graupel, and/or hail leads to warmer BTs (i.e., weaker scattering signature) at various frequencies. Channels at 166.0 and 183.31 ± 7 GHz are most sensitive to changing D o of cloud ice, channels at ≥89.0 GHz are most sensitive to changing D o of graupel, and at 18.7 and 36.5 GHz they show the greatest sensitivity to hail D o . Simulations contrasting BTs above high concentrations of small (0.5-cm diameter) and low concentrations of large (20-cm diameter) hailstones distributed evenly across a satellite pixel showed much greater scattering using the higher concentration of smaller hailstones with BTs as low as ~110, ~33, ~22, ~46, ~100, and ~106 K at 10.65, 18.7, 36.5, 89.0, 166.0, and 183.31 ± 7 GHz, respectively. These results suggest that number concentration is more important for scattering than particle size given a constant S-band radar reflectivity.

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Kenneth D. Leppert II
and
Daniel J. Cecil

Abstract

Previous work has indicated a clear, consistent diurnal cycle in rainfall and cold cloudiness coverage around tropical cyclones. This cycle may have important implications for structure and intensity changes of these storms and the forecasting of such changes. The goal of this paper is to use passive and active microwave measurements from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) and Precipitation Radar (PR), respectively, to better understand the tropical cyclone diurnal cycle throughout a deep layer of a tropical cyclone’s clouds.

The composite coverage by PR reflectivity ≥20 dBZ at various heights as a function of local standard time (LST) and radius suggests the presence of a diurnal signal for radii <500 km through a deep layer (2–10-km height) of the troposphere using 1998–2011 Atlantic tropical cyclones of at least tropical storm strength. The area covered by reflectivity ≥20 dBZ at radii 100–500 km peaks in the morning (0130–1030 LST) and reaches a minimum 1030–1930 LST. Radii between 300 and 500 km tend to reach a minimum in coverage closer to 1200 LST before reaching another peak at 2100 LST. The inner core (0–100 km) appears to be associated with a single-peaked diurnal cycle only at upper levels (8–10 km) with a maximum at 2230–0430 LST. The TMI rainfall composites suggest a clear diurnal cycle at all radii between 200 and 1000 km with peak rainfall coverage and rain rate occurring in the morning (0130–0730 LST).

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Daniel J. Cecil
,
Dennis E. Buechler
, and
Richard J. Blakeslee

Abstract

The Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite has previously been used to build climatologies of mean lightning flash rate across the global tropics and subtropics. This new work explores climatologies of thunderstorm occurrence as seen by LIS and the conditional mean flash rates when thunderstorms do occur. The region where thunderstorms are seen most often by LIS extends slightly farther east in central Africa than the corresponding region with the highest total mean annual flash rates. Presumably this reflects a difference between more frequent thunderstorm initiation in the east and upscale growth as storms move westward. There are some differences between locations with the greatest total lightning flash counts and those where thunderstorms occur most often. The greatest conditional mean flash rates—considering only those TRMM orbits that do have lightning in a given grid box—are found in subtropical regions. The highest values are in Argentina, with the central United States, Pakistan, eastern China, and the east coast of Australia also having particularly high values.

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Stephen W. Nesbitt
,
Edward J. Zipser
, and
Daniel J. Cecil

Abstract

An algorithm has been developed to identify precipitation features (≥75 km2 in size) in two land and two ocean regions during August, September, and October 1998. It uses data from two instruments on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite: near-surface precipitation radar (PR) reflectivities, and TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) 85.5-GHz polarization corrected temperatures (PCTs). These features were classified by size and intensity criteria to identify mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), precipitation with PCTs below 250 K, and other features without PCTs below 250 K. By using this technique, several hypotheses about the convective intensity and rainfall distributions of tropical precipitation systems can be evaluated. It was shown that features over land were much more intense than similar oceanic features as measured by their minimum PCTs, maximum heights of the 30-dBZ contour, and 6-km reflectivities. The diurnal cycle of precipitation features showed a strong afternoon maximum over land and a rather flat distribution over the ocean, quite similar to those found by others using infrared satellite techniques. Precipitation features with MCSs over the ocean contained significantly more rain outside the 250-K PCT isotherm than land systems, and in general, a significant portion (10%–15%) of rainfall in the Tropics falls in systems containing no PCTs less than 250 K. Volumetric rainfall and lightning characteristics (as observed by the Lightning Imaging Sensor aboard TRMM) from the systems were classified by feature intensity; similar rain amounts but highly differing lightning flash rates were found among the regions. Oceanic storms have a bimodal contribution of rainfall from two types of systems: very weak systems with little ice scattering and moderately strong systems that do not produce high lightning flash rates. Continental systems that produce the bulk of the rainfall (as sampled) are likely to have higher lightning flash rates, which are shown to be linked to stronger radar and ice-scattering intensities.

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Dennis J. Boccippio
,
Walter A. Petersen
, and
Daniel J. Cecil

Abstract

A taxonomy of tropical convective and stratiform vertical structures is constructed through cluster analysis of 3 yr of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) “warm-season” (surface temperature greater than 10°C) precipitation radar (PR) vertical profiles, their surface rainfall, and associated radar-based classifiers (convective/stratiform and brightband existence). Twenty-five archetypal profile types are identified, including nine convective types, eight stratiform types, two mixed types, and six anvil/fragment types (nonprecipitating anvils and sheared deep convective profiles). These profile types are then hierarchically clustered into 10 similar families, which can be further combined, providing an objective and physical reduction of the highly multivariate PR data space that retains vertical structure information. The taxonomy allows for description of any storm or local convective spectrum by the profile types or families. The analysis provides a quasi-independent corroboration of the TRMM 2A23 convective/stratiform classification. The global frequency of occurrence and contribution to rainfall for the profile types are presented, demonstrating primary rainfall contribution by midlevel glaciated convection (27%) and similar depth decaying/stratiform stages (28%–31%). Profiles of these types exhibit similar 37- and 85-GHz passive microwave brightness temperatures but differ greatly in their frequency of occurrence and mean rain rates, underscoring the importance to passive microwave rain retrieval of convective/stratiform discrimination by other means, such as polarization or texture techniques, or incorporation of lightning observations. Close correspondence is found between deep convective profile frequency and annualized lightning production, and pixel-level lightning occurrence likelihood directly tracks the estimated mean ice water path within profile types.

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Daniel J. Cecil
,
Edward J. Zipser
, and
Stephen W. Nesbitt

Abstract

Covering December 1997 through December 1998, 261 overpasses of 45 hurricanes by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite are used to document the observed radar reflectivity values, passive microwave ice scattering magnitudes, and total lightning (cloud to ground plus in cloud). These parameters are interpreted as describing convective vigor or intensity, with greater reflectivities (particularly aloft), greater ice scattering (lower 85- and 37-GHz brightness temperatures), and increased lightning frequency indicating more intense convection. For each parameter, the full distribution of values observed during the TRMM satellite's first year is presented for specific regions. Properties of three regions of the hurricane (eyewall, inner rainband, and outer rainband) are treated separately and compared to other tropical oceanic and tropical continental precipitation systems. Reflectivity profiles and ice scattering signatures are found to be fairly similar for both hurricane and nonhurricane tropical oceanic precipitation systems, although the hurricane inner rainband region yields the weakest of these convective signatures. When normalized by the area experiencing significant convection, the outer rainband region produces more lightning than the rest of the hurricane or nonhurricane tropical oceanic systems. As a whole, the tropical oceanic precipitation systems (both hurricane and nonhurricane) are dominated by stratiform rain and relatively weak convection.

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