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Abstract
This study uses an observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) approach to test the limitations of even nearly ideal observing systems to capture the peak wind speed occurring within a tropical storm or hurricane. The dataset is provided by a 1-km resolution simulation of an Atlantic hurricane with surface wind speeds saved every 10 s. An optimal observing system consisting of a dense field of anemometers provides perfect measurements of the peak 1-min wind speed as well as the average peak wind speed. Suboptimal observing systems consisting of a small number of anemometers are sampled and compared to the truth provided by the optimal observing system. Results show that a single, perfect anemometer experiencing a direct hit by the right side of the eyewall will underestimate the actual peak intensity by 10%–20%. Even an unusually large number of anemometers (e.g., 3–5) experiencing direct hits by the storm together will underestimate the peak wind speeds by 5%–10%. However, the peak winds of just one or two anemometers will provide on average a good estimate of the average peak intensity over several hours. Enhancing the variability of the simulated winds to better match observed winds does not change the results. Adding observational errors generally increases the reported peak winds, thus reducing the underestimates. If the average underestimate (negative bias) were known perfectly for each case, it could be used to correct the wind speeds, leaving only mean absolute errors of 3%–5%.
Abstract
This study uses an observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) approach to test the limitations of even nearly ideal observing systems to capture the peak wind speed occurring within a tropical storm or hurricane. The dataset is provided by a 1-km resolution simulation of an Atlantic hurricane with surface wind speeds saved every 10 s. An optimal observing system consisting of a dense field of anemometers provides perfect measurements of the peak 1-min wind speed as well as the average peak wind speed. Suboptimal observing systems consisting of a small number of anemometers are sampled and compared to the truth provided by the optimal observing system. Results show that a single, perfect anemometer experiencing a direct hit by the right side of the eyewall will underestimate the actual peak intensity by 10%–20%. Even an unusually large number of anemometers (e.g., 3–5) experiencing direct hits by the storm together will underestimate the peak wind speeds by 5%–10%. However, the peak winds of just one or two anemometers will provide on average a good estimate of the average peak intensity over several hours. Enhancing the variability of the simulated winds to better match observed winds does not change the results. Adding observational errors generally increases the reported peak winds, thus reducing the underestimates. If the average underestimate (negative bias) were known perfectly for each case, it could be used to correct the wind speeds, leaving only mean absolute errors of 3%–5%.
Abstract
In this study, a new multiscale intensity (MSI) metric for evaluating tropical cyclone (TC) intensity forecasts is presented. The metric consists of the resolvable and observable, low-wavenumber intensity represented by the sum of amplitudes of azimuthal wavenumbers 0 and 1 for wind speed within the TC vortex at the radius of maximum wind and a stochastic residual, all determined at 10-m elevation. The residual wind speed is defined as the difference between an estimate of maximum speed and the low-wavenumber intensity. The MSI metric is compared to the standard metric that includes only the maximum speed. Using stepped-frequency microwave radiometer wind speed observations from TC aircraft reconnaissance to estimate the low-wavenumber intensity and the National Hurricane Center’s best-track (BT) intensity for the maximum wind speed estimate, it is shown that the residual intensity is well represented as a stochastic quantity with small mean, standard deviation, and absolute norm values that are within the expected uncertainty of the BT estimates. The result strongly suggests that the practical predictability of TC intensity is determined by the observable and resolvable low-wavenumber intensity within the vortex. Verification of a set of high-resolution numerical forecasts using the MSI metric demonstrates that this metric provides more informative and more realistic estimates of the intensity forecast errors. It is also shown that the maximum speed metric allows for error compensation between the low-wavenumber and residual intensities, which could lead to forecast skill overestimation and inaccurate assessment of the impact of forecast system change on the skill.
Abstract
In this study, a new multiscale intensity (MSI) metric for evaluating tropical cyclone (TC) intensity forecasts is presented. The metric consists of the resolvable and observable, low-wavenumber intensity represented by the sum of amplitudes of azimuthal wavenumbers 0 and 1 for wind speed within the TC vortex at the radius of maximum wind and a stochastic residual, all determined at 10-m elevation. The residual wind speed is defined as the difference between an estimate of maximum speed and the low-wavenumber intensity. The MSI metric is compared to the standard metric that includes only the maximum speed. Using stepped-frequency microwave radiometer wind speed observations from TC aircraft reconnaissance to estimate the low-wavenumber intensity and the National Hurricane Center’s best-track (BT) intensity for the maximum wind speed estimate, it is shown that the residual intensity is well represented as a stochastic quantity with small mean, standard deviation, and absolute norm values that are within the expected uncertainty of the BT estimates. The result strongly suggests that the practical predictability of TC intensity is determined by the observable and resolvable low-wavenumber intensity within the vortex. Verification of a set of high-resolution numerical forecasts using the MSI metric demonstrates that this metric provides more informative and more realistic estimates of the intensity forecast errors. It is also shown that the maximum speed metric allows for error compensation between the low-wavenumber and residual intensities, which could lead to forecast skill overestimation and inaccurate assessment of the impact of forecast system change on the skill.
Off-Nadir SFMR Brightness Temperature Measurements in High-Wind ConditionsAbstract
Wind and wave-breaking directions are investigated as potential sources of an asymmetry identified in off-nadir remotely sensed measurements of ocean surface brightness temperatures obtained by the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR) in high-wind conditions, including in tropical cyclones. Surface wind speed, which dynamically couples the atmosphere and ocean, can be inferred from SFMR ocean surface brightness temperature measurements using a radiative transfer model and an inversion algorithm. The accuracy of the ocean surface brightness temperature to wind speed calibration relies on accurate knowledge of the surface variables that are influencing the ocean surface brightness temperature. Previous studies have identified wind direction signals in horizontally polarized radiometer measurements in low to moderate (0–20 m s−1) wind conditions over a wide range of incidence angles. This study finds that the azimuthal asymmetry in the off-nadir SFMR brightness temperature measurements is also likely a function of wind direction and extends the results of these previous studies to high-wind conditions. The off-nadir measurements from the SFMR provide critical data for improving the understanding of the relationships between brightness temperature, surface wave–breaking direction, and surface wind vectors at various incidence angles, which is extremely useful for the development of geophysical model functions for instruments like the Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD).
Abstract
Wind and wave-breaking directions are investigated as potential sources of an asymmetry identified in off-nadir remotely sensed measurements of ocean surface brightness temperatures obtained by the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR) in high-wind conditions, including in tropical cyclones. Surface wind speed, which dynamically couples the atmosphere and ocean, can be inferred from SFMR ocean surface brightness temperature measurements using a radiative transfer model and an inversion algorithm. The accuracy of the ocean surface brightness temperature to wind speed calibration relies on accurate knowledge of the surface variables that are influencing the ocean surface brightness temperature. Previous studies have identified wind direction signals in horizontally polarized radiometer measurements in low to moderate (0–20 m s−1) wind conditions over a wide range of incidence angles. This study finds that the azimuthal asymmetry in the off-nadir SFMR brightness temperature measurements is also likely a function of wind direction and extends the results of these previous studies to high-wind conditions. The off-nadir measurements from the SFMR provide critical data for improving the understanding of the relationships between brightness temperature, surface wave–breaking direction, and surface wind vectors at various incidence angles, which is extremely useful for the development of geophysical model functions for instruments like the Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD).
Abstract
Using dropsondes from 27 aircraft flights, in situ observations, and satellite data acquired during Tropical Cyclone Earl (category 4 hurricane), bulk air–sea fluxes of enthalpy and momentum are investigated in relation to intensity change and underlying upper-ocean thermal structure. During Earl’s rapid intensification (RI) period, ocean heat content (OHC) variability relative to the 26°C isotherm exceeded 90 kJ cm−2, and sea surface cooling was less than 0.5°C. Enthalpy fluxes of ~1.1 kW m−2 were estimated for Earl’s peak intensity. Daily sea surface heat losses of 
The most important result is that bulk enthalpy fluxes were controlled by the thermodynamic disequilibrium between the sea surface and the near-surface air, independently of wind speed. This disequilibrium was strongly influenced by underlying warm oceanic features; localized maxima in enthalpy fluxes developed over tight horizontal gradients of moisture disequilibrium over these eddy features. These regions of local buoyant forcing preferentially developed during RI. The overall magnitude of the moisture disequilibrium (Δq = q s − q a ) was determined by the saturation specific humidity at sea surface temperature (q s ) rather than by the specific humidity of the atmospheric environment (q a ). These results support the hypothesis that intense local buoyant forcing by the ocean could be an important intensification mechanism in tropical cyclones over warm oceanic features.
Abstract
Using dropsondes from 27 aircraft flights, in situ observations, and satellite data acquired during Tropical Cyclone Earl (category 4 hurricane), bulk air–sea fluxes of enthalpy and momentum are investigated in relation to intensity change and underlying upper-ocean thermal structure. During Earl’s rapid intensification (RI) period, ocean heat content (OHC) variability relative to the 26°C isotherm exceeded 90 kJ cm−2, and sea surface cooling was less than 0.5°C. Enthalpy fluxes of ~1.1 kW m−2 were estimated for Earl’s peak intensity. Daily sea surface heat losses of
The most important result is that bulk enthalpy fluxes were controlled by the thermodynamic disequilibrium between the sea surface and the near-surface air, independently of wind speed. This disequilibrium was strongly influenced by underlying warm oceanic features; localized maxima in enthalpy fluxes developed over tight horizontal gradients of moisture disequilibrium over these eddy features. These regions of local buoyant forcing preferentially developed during RI. The overall magnitude of the moisture disequilibrium (Δq = q s − q a ) was determined by the saturation specific humidity at sea surface temperature (q s ) rather than by the specific humidity of the atmospheric environment (q a ). These results support the hypothesis that intense local buoyant forcing by the ocean could be an important intensification mechanism in tropical cyclones over warm oceanic features.
Abstract
This study investigates the asymmetric structure of the hurricane boundary layer in relation to the environmental vertical wind shear in the inner core region. Data from 1878 GPS dropsondes deployed by research aircraft in 19 hurricanes are analyzed in a composite framework. Kinematic structure analyses based on Doppler radar data from 75 flights are compared with the dropsonde composites. Shear-relative quadrant-mean composite analyses show that both the kinematic and thermodynamic boundary layer height scales tend to decrease with decreasing radius, consistent with previous axisymmetric analyses. There is still a clear separation between the kinematic and thermodynamic boundary layer heights. Both the thermodynamic mixed layer and height of maximum tangential wind speed are within the inflow layer. The inflow layer depth is found to be deeper in quadrants downshear, with the downshear right (DR) quadrant being the deepest. The mixed layer depth and height of maximum tangential wind speed are alike at the eyewall, but are deeper outside in quadrants left of the shear. The results also suggest that air parcels acquire equivalent potential temperature θe from surface fluxes as they rotate through the upshear right (UR) quadrant from the upshear left (UL) quadrant. Convection is triggered in the DR quadrant in the presence of asymmetric mesoscale lifting coincident with a maximum in θe . Energy is then released by latent heating in the downshear left (DL) quadrant. Convective downdrafts bring down cool and dry air to the surface and lower θe again in the DL and UL quadrants. This cycling process may be directly tied to shear-induced asymmetry of convection in hurricanes.
Abstract
This study investigates the asymmetric structure of the hurricane boundary layer in relation to the environmental vertical wind shear in the inner core region. Data from 1878 GPS dropsondes deployed by research aircraft in 19 hurricanes are analyzed in a composite framework. Kinematic structure analyses based on Doppler radar data from 75 flights are compared with the dropsonde composites. Shear-relative quadrant-mean composite analyses show that both the kinematic and thermodynamic boundary layer height scales tend to decrease with decreasing radius, consistent with previous axisymmetric analyses. There is still a clear separation between the kinematic and thermodynamic boundary layer heights. Both the thermodynamic mixed layer and height of maximum tangential wind speed are within the inflow layer. The inflow layer depth is found to be deeper in quadrants downshear, with the downshear right (DR) quadrant being the deepest. The mixed layer depth and height of maximum tangential wind speed are alike at the eyewall, but are deeper outside in quadrants left of the shear. The results also suggest that air parcels acquire equivalent potential temperature θe from surface fluxes as they rotate through the upshear right (UR) quadrant from the upshear left (UL) quadrant. Convection is triggered in the DR quadrant in the presence of asymmetric mesoscale lifting coincident with a maximum in θe . Energy is then released by latent heating in the downshear left (DL) quadrant. Convective downdrafts bring down cool and dry air to the surface and lower θe again in the DL and UL quadrants. This cycling process may be directly tied to shear-induced asymmetry of convection in hurricanes.
Abstract
The NOAA Wide-Swath Radar Altimeter (WSRA) uses 80 narrow beams spread over ±30° in the cross-track direction to generate raster lines of sea surface topography at a 10-Hz rate from which sea surface directional wave spectra are produced. A ±14° subset of the backscattered power data associated with the topography measurements is used to produce independent measurements of rain rate and sea surface mean square slope at 10-s intervals. Theoretical calculations of rain attenuation at the WSRA 16.15-GHz operating frequency using measured drop size distributions for both mostly convective and mostly stratiform rainfall demonstrate that the WSRA absorption technique for rain determination is relatively insensitive to both ambient temperature and the characteristics of the drop size distribution, in contrast to reflectivity techniques. The variation of the sea surface radar reflectivity in the vicinity of a hurricane is reviewed. Fluctuations in the sea surface scattering characteristics caused by changes in wind speed or the rain impinging on the surface cannot contaminate the rain measurement because they are calibrated out using the WSRA measurement of mean square slope. WSRA rain measurements from a NOAA WP-3D hurricane research aircraft off the North Carolina coast in Hurricane Irene on 26 August 2011 are compared with those from the stepped frequency microwave radiometer (SFMR) on the aircraft and the Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD) National Mosaic and Multi-Sensor Quantitative Precipitation Estimation (QPE) system.
Abstract
The NOAA Wide-Swath Radar Altimeter (WSRA) uses 80 narrow beams spread over ±30° in the cross-track direction to generate raster lines of sea surface topography at a 10-Hz rate from which sea surface directional wave spectra are produced. A ±14° subset of the backscattered power data associated with the topography measurements is used to produce independent measurements of rain rate and sea surface mean square slope at 10-s intervals. Theoretical calculations of rain attenuation at the WSRA 16.15-GHz operating frequency using measured drop size distributions for both mostly convective and mostly stratiform rainfall demonstrate that the WSRA absorption technique for rain determination is relatively insensitive to both ambient temperature and the characteristics of the drop size distribution, in contrast to reflectivity techniques. The variation of the sea surface radar reflectivity in the vicinity of a hurricane is reviewed. Fluctuations in the sea surface scattering characteristics caused by changes in wind speed or the rain impinging on the surface cannot contaminate the rain measurement because they are calibrated out using the WSRA measurement of mean square slope. WSRA rain measurements from a NOAA WP-3D hurricane research aircraft off the North Carolina coast in Hurricane Irene on 26 August 2011 are compared with those from the stepped frequency microwave radiometer (SFMR) on the aircraft and the Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD) National Mosaic and Multi-Sensor Quantitative Precipitation Estimation (QPE) system.
Abstract
Wavenumber-1 wind speed asymmetries in 35 hurricanes are quantified in terms of their amplitude and phase, based on aircraft observations from 128 individual flights between 1998 and 2011. The impacts of motion and 850–200-mb environmental vertical shear are examined separately to estimate the resulting asymmetric structures at the sea surface and standard 700-mb reconnaissance flight level. The surface asymmetry amplitude is on average around 50% smaller than found at flight level, and while the asymmetry amplitude grows in proportion to storm translation speed at the flight level, no significant growth at the surface is observed, contrary to conventional assumption. However, a significant upwind storm-motion-relative phase rotation is found at the surface as translation speed increases, while the flight-level phase remains fairly constant. After removing the estimated impact of storm motion on the asymmetry, a significant residual shear direction-relative asymmetry is found, particularly at the surface, and, on average, is located downshear to the left of shear. Furthermore, the shear-relative phase has a significant downwind rotation as shear magnitude increases, such that the maximum rotates from the downshear to left-of-shear azimuthal location. By stratifying observations according to shear-relative motion, this general pattern of a left-of-shear residual wind speed maximum is found regardless of the orientation between the storm’s heading and shear direction. These results are quite consistent with recent observational studies relating western Pacific typhoon wind asymmetries to environmental shear. Finally, changes in wind asymmetry over a 5-day period during Hurricane Earl (2010) are analyzed to understand the combined impacts of motion and the evolving shear.
Abstract
Wavenumber-1 wind speed asymmetries in 35 hurricanes are quantified in terms of their amplitude and phase, based on aircraft observations from 128 individual flights between 1998 and 2011. The impacts of motion and 850–200-mb environmental vertical shear are examined separately to estimate the resulting asymmetric structures at the sea surface and standard 700-mb reconnaissance flight level. The surface asymmetry amplitude is on average around 50% smaller than found at flight level, and while the asymmetry amplitude grows in proportion to storm translation speed at the flight level, no significant growth at the surface is observed, contrary to conventional assumption. However, a significant upwind storm-motion-relative phase rotation is found at the surface as translation speed increases, while the flight-level phase remains fairly constant. After removing the estimated impact of storm motion on the asymmetry, a significant residual shear direction-relative asymmetry is found, particularly at the surface, and, on average, is located downshear to the left of shear. Furthermore, the shear-relative phase has a significant downwind rotation as shear magnitude increases, such that the maximum rotates from the downshear to left-of-shear azimuthal location. By stratifying observations according to shear-relative motion, this general pattern of a left-of-shear residual wind speed maximum is found regardless of the orientation between the storm’s heading and shear direction. These results are quite consistent with recent observational studies relating western Pacific typhoon wind asymmetries to environmental shear. Finally, changes in wind asymmetry over a 5-day period during Hurricane Earl (2010) are analyzed to understand the combined impacts of motion and the evolving shear.
Abstract
Recent enhancements to the tropical cyclone-buoy database (TCBD) have incorporated data from the Extended Best Track (EBT) and the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) archive for tropical cyclones between 1975 and 2007. This information is used to analyze the relationships between large-scale atmospheric parameters, radial and shear-relative air–sea structure, and intensity change in strengthening and weakening hurricanes. Observations from this research illustrate that the direction of the large-scale vertical wind shear at mid- to low levels can impact atmospheric moisture conditions found near the surface. Drier low-level environments were associated with northerly shear conditions. In a separate analysis comparing strengthening and weakening hurricanes, drier surface conditions were also found for the intensifying sample. Since SST conditions were similar for both groups of storms, it is likely that the atmosphere was primarily responsible for modifying the near-surface thermodynamic environment (and ultimately surface moisture flux conditions) for this particular analysis.
Abstract
Recent enhancements to the tropical cyclone-buoy database (TCBD) have incorporated data from the Extended Best Track (EBT) and the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) archive for tropical cyclones between 1975 and 2007. This information is used to analyze the relationships between large-scale atmospheric parameters, radial and shear-relative air–sea structure, and intensity change in strengthening and weakening hurricanes. Observations from this research illustrate that the direction of the large-scale vertical wind shear at mid- to low levels can impact atmospheric moisture conditions found near the surface. Drier low-level environments were associated with northerly shear conditions. In a separate analysis comparing strengthening and weakening hurricanes, drier surface conditions were also found for the intensifying sample. Since SST conditions were similar for both groups of storms, it is likely that the atmosphere was primarily responsible for modifying the near-surface thermodynamic environment (and ultimately surface moisture flux conditions) for this particular analysis.
Abstract
Simultaneous observations by the lower fuselage (LF) radar, the tail (TA) radar, and the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR) on board the NOAA WP-3D aircraft are used to validate the rainfall rate estimates from microwave emission measurements of SFMR in tropical cyclones. Data collected in Hurricane Bonnie (1998) and Hurricane Humberto (2001) with a total of 820 paired samples are used in the comparisons. The SFMR 10-s path-integrated rain rates are found to have an overestimate in light rain and an underestimate in heavy rain relative to radar rainfall estimates. Examination of the existing SFMR algorithm shows that the coefficient should be changed in the attenuation—rain-rate relationship used in the inversion algorithm. After this correction, a linear regression result with a correlation coefficient of 0.8 and a slope close to 1 is obtained. But an overall high bias of 5 mm h−1 of the SFMR rainfall estimate relative to radar is also found. The error analysis shows that the bias is nearly independent of rain type, a result confirming Jorgensen and Willis’s conclusion that the drop size distributions between convective and stratiform rain in hurricanes are similar. It is also shown that the bias is a weak function of wind speed, as well as a weak inverse function of radial distance to the hurricane center. Temperature dependence has been ruled out as the main explanation. After doing sensitivity tests, the authors conclude that the bias results from a combination of two factors: an underestimate of the freezing-level height, and a downward increase of radar reflectivity in the high wind regions. If the true downward increase is 1–2 dBZ km−1, a 0.5-km underestimate of the freezing-level height could account for up to a 3–5 mm h−1 bias.
Abstract
Simultaneous observations by the lower fuselage (LF) radar, the tail (TA) radar, and the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR) on board the NOAA WP-3D aircraft are used to validate the rainfall rate estimates from microwave emission measurements of SFMR in tropical cyclones. Data collected in Hurricane Bonnie (1998) and Hurricane Humberto (2001) with a total of 820 paired samples are used in the comparisons. The SFMR 10-s path-integrated rain rates are found to have an overestimate in light rain and an underestimate in heavy rain relative to radar rainfall estimates. Examination of the existing SFMR algorithm shows that the coefficient should be changed in the attenuation—rain-rate relationship used in the inversion algorithm. After this correction, a linear regression result with a correlation coefficient of 0.8 and a slope close to 1 is obtained. But an overall high bias of 5 mm h−1 of the SFMR rainfall estimate relative to radar is also found. The error analysis shows that the bias is nearly independent of rain type, a result confirming Jorgensen and Willis’s conclusion that the drop size distributions between convective and stratiform rain in hurricanes are similar. It is also shown that the bias is a weak function of wind speed, as well as a weak inverse function of radial distance to the hurricane center. Temperature dependence has been ruled out as the main explanation. After doing sensitivity tests, the authors conclude that the bias results from a combination of two factors: an underestimate of the freezing-level height, and a downward increase of radar reflectivity in the high wind regions. If the true downward increase is 1–2 dBZ km−1, a 0.5-km underestimate of the freezing-level height could account for up to a 3–5 mm h−1 bias.
Abstract
This study presents a new approach for retrieving hurricane surface wind vectors utilizing C-band dual-polarization (VV, VH) synthetic aperture radar (SAR) observations. The copolarized geophysical model function [C-band model 5.N (CMOD5.N)] and a new cross-polarized wind speed retrieval model for dual polarization [C-band cross-polarized ocean surface wind retrieval model for dual-polarization SAR (C-2POD)] are employed to construct a cost function. Minimization of the cost function allows optimum estimates for the wind speeds and directions. The wind direction ambiguities are removed using a parametric two-dimensional sea surface inflow angle model. To evaluate the accuracy of the proposed method, two RADARSAT-2 SAR images of Hurricanes Bill and Bertha are analyzed. The retrieved wind speeds and directions are compared with collocated Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT) winds, showing good consistency. Results suggest that the proposed method has good potential to retrieve hurricane surface wind vectors from dual-polarization SAR observations.
Abstract
This study presents a new approach for retrieving hurricane surface wind vectors utilizing C-band dual-polarization (VV, VH) synthetic aperture radar (SAR) observations. The copolarized geophysical model function [C-band model 5.N (CMOD5.N)] and a new cross-polarized wind speed retrieval model for dual polarization [C-band cross-polarized ocean surface wind retrieval model for dual-polarization SAR (C-2POD)] are employed to construct a cost function. Minimization of the cost function allows optimum estimates for the wind speeds and directions. The wind direction ambiguities are removed using a parametric two-dimensional sea surface inflow angle model. To evaluate the accuracy of the proposed method, two RADARSAT-2 SAR images of Hurricanes Bill and Bertha are analyzed. The retrieved wind speeds and directions are compared with collocated Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT) winds, showing good consistency. Results suggest that the proposed method has good potential to retrieve hurricane surface wind vectors from dual-polarization SAR observations.
