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Steven V. Vasiloff
,
Dong-Jun Seo
,
Kenneth W. Howard
,
Jian Zhang
,
David H. Kitzmiller
,
Mary G. Mullusky
,
Witold F. Krajewski
,
Edward A. Brandes
,
Robert M. Rabin
,
Daniel S. Berkowitz
,
Harold E. Brooks
,
John A. McGinley
,
Robert J. Kuligowski
, and
Barbara G. Brown

Accurate quantitative precipitation estimates (QPE) and very short term quantitative precipitation forecasts (VSTQPF) are critical to accurate monitoring and prediction of water-related hazards and water resources. While tremendous progress has been made in the last quarter-century in many areas of QPE and VSTQPF, significant gaps continue to exist in both knowledge and capabilities that are necessary to produce accurate high-resolution precipitation estimates at the national scale for a wide spectrum of users. Toward this goal, a national next-generation QPE and VSTQPF (Q2) workshop was held in Norman, Oklahoma, on 28–30 June 2005. Scientists, operational forecasters, water managers, and stakeholders from public and private sectors, including academia, presented and discussed a broad range of precipitation and forecasting topics and issues, and developed a list of science focus areas. To meet the nation's needs for the precipitation information effectively, the authors herein propose a community-wide integrated approach for precipitation information that fully capitalizes on recent advances in science and technology, and leverages the wide range of expertise and experience that exists in the research and operational communities. The concepts and recommendations from the workshop form the Q2 science plan and a suggested path to operations. Implementation of these concepts is expected to improve river forecasts and flood and flash flood watches and warnings, and to enhance various hydrologic and hydrometeorological services for a wide range of users and customers. In support of this initiative, the National Mosaic and Q2 (NMQ) system is being developed at the National Severe Storms Laboratory to serve as a community test bed for QPE and VSTQPF research and to facilitate the transition to operations of research applications. The NMQ system provides a real-time, around-the-clock data infusion and applications development and evaluation environment, and thus offers a community-wide platform for development and testing of advances in the focus areas.

Full access
F. Vitart
,
C. Ardilouze
,
A. Bonet
,
A. Brookshaw
,
M. Chen
,
C. Codorean
,
M. Déqué
,
L. Ferranti
,
E. Fucile
,
M. Fuentes
,
H. Hendon
,
J. Hodgson
,
H.-S. Kang
,
A. Kumar
,
H. Lin
,
G. Liu
,
X. Liu
,
P. Malguzzi
,
I. Mallas
,
M. Manoussakis
,
D. Mastrangelo
,
C. MacLachlan
,
P. McLean
,
A. Minami
,
R. Mladek
,
T. Nakazawa
,
S. Najm
,
Y. Nie
,
M. Rixen
,
A. W. Robertson
,
P. Ruti
,
C. Sun
,
Y. Takaya
,
M. Tolstykh
,
F. Venuti
,
D. Waliser
,
S. Woolnough
,
T. Wu
,
D.-J. Won
,
H. Xiao
,
R. Zaripov
, and
L. Zhang

Abstract

Demands are growing rapidly in the operational prediction and applications communities for forecasts that fill the gap between medium-range weather and long-range or seasonal forecasts. Based on the potential for improved forecast skill at the subseasonal to seasonal time range, the Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Prediction research project has been established by the World Weather Research Programme/World Climate Research Programme. A main deliverable of this project is the establishment of an extensive database containing subseasonal (up to 60 days) forecasts, 3 weeks behind real time, and reforecasts from 11 operational centers, modeled in part on the The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) database for medium-range forecasts (up to 15 days).

The S2S database, available to the research community since May 2015, represents an important tool to advance our understanding of the subseasonal to seasonal time range that has been considered for a long time as a “desert of predictability.” In particular, this database will help identify common successes and shortcomings in the model simulation and prediction of sources of subseasonal to seasonal predictability. For instance, a preliminary study suggests that the S2S models significantly underestimate the amplitude of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) teleconnections over the Euro-Atlantic sector. The S2S database also represents an important tool for case studies of extreme events. For instance, a multimodel combination of S2S models displays higher probability of a landfall over the islands of Vanuatu 2–3 weeks before Tropical Cyclone Pam devastated the islands in March 2015.

Full access
R. M. Rasmussen
,
F. Chen
,
C.H. Liu
,
K. Ikeda
,
A. Prein
,
J. Kim
,
T. Schneider
,
A. Dai
,
D. Gochis
,
A. Dugger
,
Y. Zhang
,
A. Jaye
,
J. Dudhia
,
C. He
,
M. Harrold
,
L. Xue
,
S. Chen
,
A. Newman
,
E. Dougherty
,
R. Abolafia-Rosenzweig
,
N. D. Lybarger
,
R. Viger
,
D. Lesmes
,
K. Skalak
,
J. Brakebill
,
D. Cline
,
K. Dunne
,
K. Rasmussen
, and
G. Miguez-Macho

Abstract

A unique, high-resolution, hydroclimate reanalysis, 40-plus-year (October 1979–September 2021), 4 km (named as CONUS404), has been created using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model by dynamically downscaling of the fifth-generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) atmospheric reanalysis of the global climate dataset (ERA5) over the conterminous United States. The paper describes the approach for generating the dataset, provides an initial evaluation, including biases, and indicates how interested users can access the data. The motivation for creating this National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)–U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) collaborative dataset is to provide research and end-user communities with a high-resolution, self-consistent, long-term, continental-scale hydroclimate dataset appropriate for forcing hydrological models and conducting hydroclimate scientific analyses over the conterminous United States. The data are archived and accessible on the USGS Black Pearl tape system and on the NCAR supercomputer Campaign storage system.

Open access
I. A. Renfrew
,
G. W. K. Moore
,
J. E. Kristjánsson
,
H. Ólafsson
,
S. L. Gray
,
G. N. Petersen
,
K. Bovis
,
P. R. A. Brown
,
I. Føre
,
T. Haine
,
C. Hay
,
E. A. Irvine
,
A Lawrence
,
T. Ohigashi
,
S. Outten
,
R. S. Pickart
,
M. Shapiro
,
D. Sproson
,
R. Swinbank
,
A. Woolley
, and
S. Zhang

Greenland has a major influence on the atmospheric circulation of the North Atlantic-western European region, dictating the location and strength of mesoscale weather systems around the coastal seas of Greenland and directly influencing synoptic-scale weather systems both locally and downstream over Europe. High winds associated with the local weather systems can induce large air-sea fluxes of heat, moisture, and momentum in a region that is critical to the overturning of the thermohaline circulation, and thus play a key role in controlling the coupled atmosphere-ocean climate system.

The Greenland Flow Distortion Experiment (GFDex) is investigating the role of Greenland in defining the structure and predictability of both local and downstream weather systems through a program of aircraft-based observation and numerical modeling. The GFDex observational program is centered upon an aircraft-based field campaign in February and March 2007, at the dawn of the International Polar Year. Twelve missions were flown with the Facility for Airborne Atmospheric Measurements' BAe-146, based out of the Keflavik, Iceland. These included the first aircraft-based observations of a reverse tip jet event, the first aircraft-based observations of barrier winds off of southeast Greenland, two polar mesoscale cyclones, a dramatic case of lee cyclogenesis, and several targeted observation missions into areas where additional observations were predicted to improve forecasts.

In this overview of GFDex the background, aims and objectives, and facilities and logistics are described. A summary of the campaign is provided, along with some of the highlights of the experiment.

Full access
Dan Lubin
,
Damao Zhang
,
Israel Silber
,
Ryan C. Scott
,
Petros Kalogeras
,
Alessandro Battaglia
,
David H. Bromwich
,
Maria Cadeddu
,
Edwin Eloranta
,
Ann Fridlind
,
Amanda Frossard
,
Keith M. Hines
,
Stefan Kneifel
,
W. Richard Leaitch
,
Wuyin Lin
,
Julien Nicolas
,
Heath Powers
,
Patricia K. Quinn
,
Penny Rowe
,
Lynn M. Russell
,
Sangeeta Sharma
,
Johannes Verlinde
, and
Andrew M. Vogelmann
Full access
Dan Lubin
,
Damao Zhang
,
Israel Silber
,
Ryan C. Scott
,
Petros Kalogeras
,
Alessandro Battaglia
,
David H. Bromwich
,
Maria Cadeddu
,
Edwin Eloranta
,
Ann Fridlind
,
Amanda Frossard
,
Keith M. Hines
,
Stefan Kneifel
,
W. Richard Leaitch
,
Wuyin Lin
,
Julien Nicolas
,
Heath Powers
,
Patricia K. Quinn
,
Penny Rowe
,
Lynn M. Russell
,
Sangeeta Sharma
,
Johannes Verlinde
, and
Andrew M. Vogelmann

Abstract

The U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) West Antarctic Radiation Experiment (AWARE) performed comprehensive meteorological and aerosol measurements and ground-based atmospheric remote sensing at two Antarctic stations using the most advanced instrumentation available. A suite of cloud research radars, lidars, spectral and broadband radiometers, aerosol chemical and microphysical sampling equipment, and meteorological instrumentation was deployed at McMurdo Station on Ross Island from December 2015 through December 2016. A smaller suite of radiometers and meteorological equipment, including radiosondes optimized for surface energy budget measurement, was deployed on the West Antarctic Ice Sheet between 4 December 2015 and 17 January 2016. AWARE provided Antarctic atmospheric data comparable to several well-instrumented high Arctic sites that have operated for many years and that reveal numerous contrasts with the Arctic in aerosol and cloud microphysical properties. These include persistent differences in liquid cloud occurrence, cloud height, and cloud thickness. Antarctic aerosol properties are also quite different from the Arctic in both seasonal cycle and composition, due to the continent’s isolation from lower latitudes by Southern Ocean storm tracks. Antarctic aerosol number and mass concentrations are not only non-negligible but perhaps play a more important role than previously recognized because of the higher sensitivities of clouds at the very low concentrations caused by the large-scale dynamical isolation. Antarctic aerosol chemical composition, particularly organic components, has implications for local cloud microphysics. The AWARE dataset, fully available online in the ARM Program data archive, offers numerous case studies for unique and rigorous evaluation of mixed-phase cloud parameterization in climate models.

Free access
Z. Q. Li
,
H. Xu
,
K. T. Li
,
D. H. Li
,
Y. S. Xie
,
L. Li
,
Y. Zhang
,
X. F. Gu
,
W. Zhao
,
Q. J. Tian
,
R. R. Deng
,
X. L. Su
,
B. Huang
,
Y. L. Qiao
,
W. Y. Cui
,
Y. Hu
,
C. L. Gong
,
Y. Q. Wang
,
X. F. Wang
,
J. P. Wang
,
W. B. Du
,
Z. Q. Pan
,
Z. Z. Li
, and
D. Bu

Abstract

An overview of Sun–Sky Radiometer Observation Network (SONET) measurements in China is presented. Based on observations at 16 distributed SONET sites in China, atmospheric aerosol parameters are acquired via standardization processes of operational measurement, maintenance, calibration, inversion, and quality control implemented since 2010. A climatology study is performed focusing on total columnar atmospheric aerosol characteristics, including optical (aerosol optical depth, ÅngstrÖm exponent, fine-mode fraction, single-scattering albedo), physical (volume particle size distribution), chemical composition (black carbon; brown carbon; fine-mode scattering component, coarse-mode component; and aerosol water), and radiative properties (aerosol radiative forcing and efficiency). Data analyses show that aerosol optical depth is low in the west but high in the east of China. Aerosol composition also shows significant spatial and temporal variations, leading to noticeable diversities in optical and physical property patterns. In west and north China, aerosols are generally affected by dust particles, while monsoon climate and human activities impose remarkable influences on aerosols in east and south China. Aerosols in China exhibit strong light-scattering capability and result in significant radiative cooling effects.

Full access
C. L. Reddington
,
K. S. Carslaw
,
P. Stier
,
N. Schutgens
,
H. Coe
,
D. Liu
,
J. Allan
,
J. Browse
,
K. J. Pringle
,
L. A. Lee
,
M. Yoshioka
,
J. S. Johnson
,
L. A. Regayre
,
D. V. Spracklen
,
G. W. Mann
,
A. Clarke
,
M. Hermann
,
S. Henning
,
H. Wex
,
T. B. Kristensen
,
W. R. Leaitch
,
U. Pöschl
,
D. Rose
,
M. O. Andreae
,
J. Schmale
,
Y. Kondo
,
N. Oshima
,
J. P. Schwarz
,
A. Nenes
,
B. Anderson
,
G. C. Roberts
,
J. R. Snider
,
C. Leck
,
P. K. Quinn
,
X. Chi
,
A. Ding
,
J. L. Jimenez
, and
Q. Zhang

Abstract

The largest uncertainty in the historical radiative forcing of climate is caused by changes in aerosol particles due to anthropogenic activity. Sophisticated aerosol microphysics processes have been included in many climate models in an effort to reduce the uncertainty. However, the models are very challenging to evaluate and constrain because they require extensive in situ measurements of the particle size distribution, number concentration, and chemical composition that are not available from global satellite observations. The Global Aerosol Synthesis and Science Project (GASSP) aims to improve the robustness of global aerosol models by combining new methodologies for quantifying model uncertainty, to create an extensive global dataset of aerosol in situ microphysical and chemical measurements, and to develop new ways to assess the uncertainty associated with comparing sparse point measurements with low-resolution models. GASSP has assembled over 45,000 hours of measurements from ships and aircraft as well as data from over 350 ground stations. The measurements have been harmonized into a standardized format that is easily used by modelers and nonspecialist users. Available measurements are extensive, but they are biased to polluted regions of the Northern Hemisphere, leaving large pristine regions and many continental areas poorly sampled. The aerosol radiative forcing uncertainty can be reduced using a rigorous model–data synthesis approach. Nevertheless, our research highlights significant remaining challenges because of the difficulty of constraining many interwoven model uncertainties simultaneously. Although the physical realism of global aerosol models still needs to be improved, the uncertainty in aerosol radiative forcing will be reduced most effectively by systematically and rigorously constraining the models using extensive syntheses of measurements.

Open access
Armin Sorooshian
,
Bruce Anderson
,
Susanne E. Bauer
,
Rachel A. Braun
,
Brian Cairns
,
Ewan Crosbie
,
Hossein Dadashazar
,
Glenn Diskin
,
Richard Ferrare
,
Richard C. Flagan
,
Johnathan Hair
,
Chris Hostetler
,
Haflidi H. Jonsson
,
Mary M. Kleb
,
Hongyu Liu
,
Alexander B. MacDonald
,
Allison McComiskey
,
Richard Moore
,
David Painemal
,
Lynn M. Russell
,
John H. Seinfeld
,
Michael Shook
,
William L. Smith Jr
,
Kenneth Thornhill
,
George Tselioudis
,
Hailong Wang
,
Xubin Zeng
,
Bo Zhang
,
Luke Ziemba
, and
Paquita Zuidema

Abstract

We report on a multiyear set of airborne field campaigns (2005–16) off the California coast to examine aerosols, clouds, and meteorology, and how lessons learned tie into the upcoming NASA Earth Venture Suborbital (EVS-3) campaign: Aerosol Cloud meTeorology Interactions oVer the western ATlantic Experiment (ACTIVATE; 2019–23). The largest uncertainty in estimating global anthropogenic radiative forcing is associated with the interactions of aerosol particles with clouds, which stems from the variability of cloud systems and the multiple feedbacks that affect and hamper efforts to ascribe changes in cloud properties to aerosol perturbations. While past campaigns have been limited in flight hours and the ability to fly in and around clouds, efforts sponsored by the Office of Naval Research have resulted in 113 single aircraft flights (>500 flight hours) in a fixed region with warm marine boundary layer clouds. All flights used nearly the same payload of instruments on a Twin Otter to fly below, in, and above clouds, producing an unprecedented dataset. We provide here i) an overview of statistics of aerosol, cloud, and meteorological conditions encountered in those campaigns and ii) quantification of model-relevant metrics associated with aerosol–cloud interactions leveraging the high data volume and statistics. Based on lessons learned from those flights, we describe the pragmatic innovation in sampling strategy (dual-aircraft approach with combined in situ and remote sensing) that will be used in ACTIVATE to generate a dataset that can advance scientific understanding and improve physical parameterizations for Earth system and weather forecasting models, and for assessing next-generation remote sensing retrieval algorithms.

Full access
John H. Seinfeld
,
Gregory R. Carmichael
,
Richard Arimoto
,
William C. Conant
,
Frederick J. Brechtel
,
Timothy S. Bates
,
Thomas A. Cahill
,
Antony D. Clarke
,
Sarah J. Doherty
,
Piotr J. Flatau
,
Barry J. Huebert
,
Jiyoung Kim
,
Krzysztof M. Markowicz
,
Patricia K. Quinn
,
Lynn M. Russell
,
Philip B. Russell
,
Atsushi Shimizu
,
Yohei Shinozuka
,
Chul H. Song
,
Youhua Tang
,
Itsushi Uno
,
Andrew M. Vogelmann
,
Rodney J. Weber
,
Jung-Hun Woo
, and
Xiao Y. Zhang

Although continental-scale plumes of Asian dust and pollution reduce the amount of solar radiation reaching the earth's surface and perturb the chemistry of the atmosphere, our ability to quantify these effects has been limited by a lack of critical observations, particularly of layers above the surface. Comprehensive surface, airborne, shipboard, and satellite measurements of Asian aerosol chemical composition, size, optical properties, and radiative impacts were performed during the Asian Pacific Regional Aerosol Characterization Experiment (ACE-Asia) study. Measurements within a massive Chinese dust storm at numerous widely spaced sampling locations revealed the highly complex structure of the atmosphere, in which layers of dust, urban pollution, and biomass- burning smoke may be transported long distances as distinct entities or mixed together. The data allow a first-time assessment of the regional climatic and atmospheric chemical effects of a continental-scale mixture of dust and pollution. Our results show that radiative flux reductions during such episodes are sufficient to cause regional climate change.

Full access