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Patrick Conry
,
Ashish Sharma
,
Mark J. Potosnak
,
Laura S. Leo
,
Edward Bensman
,
Jessica J. Hellmann
, and
Harindra J. S. Fernando

Abstract

The interaction of global climate change and urban heat islands (UHI) is expected to have far-reaching impacts on the sustainability of the world’s rapidly growing urban population centers. Given that a wide range of spatiotemporal scales contributed by meteorological forcing and complex surface heterogeneity complicates UHI, a multimodel nested approach is used in this paper to study climate-change impacts on the Chicago, Illinois, UHI, covering a range of relevant scales. One-way dynamical downscaling is used with a model chain consisting of global climate (Community Atmosphere Model), regional climate (Weather Research and Forecasting Model), and microscale (“ENVI-met”) models. Nested mesoscale and microscale models are evaluated against the present-day observations (including a dedicated urban miniature field study), and the results favorably demonstrate the fidelity of the downscaling techniques that were used. A simple building-energy model is developed and used in conjunction with microscale-model output to calculate future energy demands for a building, and a substantial increase (as much as 26% during daytime) is noted for future (~2080) climate. Although winds and lake-breeze circulation for future climate are favorable for reducing energy usage by 7%, the benefits are outweighed by such factors as exacerbated UHI and air temperature. An adverse change in human-comfort indicators is also noted in the future climate, with 92% of the population experiencing thermal discomfort. The model chain that was used has general applicability for evaluating climate-change impacts on city centers and, hence, for urban-sustainability studies.

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Manuela Lehner
,
C. David Whiteman
,
Sebastian W. Hoch
,
Derek Jensen
,
Eric R. Pardyjak
,
Laura S. Leo
,
Silvana Di Sabatino
, and
Harindra J. S. Fernando

Abstract

Observations were taken on an east-facing sidewall at the foot of a desert mountain that borders a large valley, as part of the Mountain Terrain Atmospheric Modeling and Observations (MATERHORN) field program at Dugway Proving Ground in Utah. A case study of nocturnal boundary layer development is presented for a night in mid-May when tethered-balloon measurements were taken to supplement other MATERHORN field measurements. The boundary layer development over the slope could be divided into three distinct phases during this night: 1) The evening transition from daytime upslope/up-valley winds to nighttime downslope winds was governed by the propagation of the shadow front. Because of the combination of complex topography at the site and the solar angle at this time of year, the shadow moved down the sidewall from approximately northwest to southeast, with the flow transition closely following the shadow front. 2) The flow transition was followed by a 3–4-h period of almost steady-state boundary layer conditions, with a shallow slope-parallel surface inversion and a pronounced downslope flow with a jet maximum located within the surface-based inversion. The shallow slope boundary layer was very sensitive to ambient flows, resulting in several small disturbances. 3) After approximately 2300 mountain standard time, the inversion that had formed over the adjacent valley repeatedly sloshed up the mountain sidewall, disturbing local downslope flows and causing rapid temperature drops.

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Jaynise M. Pérez Valentín
,
Harindra J. S. Fernando
,
G. S. Bhat
,
Hemantha W. Wijesekera
,
Jayesh Phadtare
, and
Edgar Gonzalez

Abstract

The relationship between eastward-propagating convective equatorial signals (CES) along the equatorial Indian Ocean (EIO) and the northward-propagating monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISOs) in the Bay of Bengal (BOB) was studied using observational datasets acquired during the 2018 and 2019 MISO-BOB field campaigns. Convective envelopes of MISOs originating from just south of the BOB were associated with both strong and weak eastward CES (average speed ∼6.4 m s−1). Strong CES contributed to ∼20% of the precipitation budget of BOB, and they spurred northward-propagating convective signals that matched the canonical speed of MISOs (1–2 m s−1). In contrast, weak CES contributed to ∼14% of the BOB precipitation budget, and they dissipated without significant northward propagation. Eastward-propagating intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs; period 30–60 days) and convectively coupled Kelvin waves (CCKWs; period 4–15 days) accounted for most precipitation variability across the EIO during the 2019 boreal summer as compared with that of 2018. An agreement could be noted between high moisture content in the midtroposphere and the active phases of CCKWs and ISOs for two observational locations in the BOB. Basin-scale thermodynamic conditions prior to the arrival of strong or weak CES revealed warmer or cooler sea surface temperatures, respectively. Flux measurements aboard a research vessel suggest that the evolution of MISOs associated with strong CES are signified by local enhanced air–sea interactions, in particular the supply of local moisture and sensible heat, which could enhance deep convection and further moisten the upper troposphere.

Significance Statement

Eastward-propagating convective signals along the equatorial Indian Ocean and their relationship to the northward-propagating spells of rainfall that lead to moisture variability in the Bay of Bengal are studied for the 2018 and 2019 southwest monsoon seasons using observational datasets acquired during field campaigns. Strong convective equatorial signals spurred northward-propagating convection, as compared with weak signals that dissipated without significant northward propagation. Wave spectral analysis showed CCKWs (period 4–15 days), and eastward ISOs (period 30–60 days) accounted for most of the precipitation variability, with the former dominating during the 2018 boreal summer. High moisture periods observed from radiosonde measurements show agreement with the active phases of CCKWs and ISOs.

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Luc Rainville
,
Craig M. Lee
,
K. Arulananthan
,
S. U. P. Jinadasa
,
Harindra J. S. Fernando
,
W. N. C. Priyadarshani
, and
Hemantha Wijesekera

Abstract

We present high-resolution sustained, persistent observations of the ocean around Sri Lanka from autonomous gliders collected over several years, a region with complex, variable circulation patterns connecting the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea to each other and the rest of the Indian Ocean. The Seaglider surveys resolve seasonal to interannual variability in vertical and horizontal structure, allowing quantification of volume, heat, and freshwater fluxes, as well as the transformations and transports of key water mass classes across sections normal to the east (2014–15) and south (2016–19) coasts of Sri Lanka. The resulting transports point to the importance of both surface and subsurface flows and show that the direct pathway along the Sri Lankan coast plays a significant role in the exchanges of waters between the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal. Significant section-to-section variability highlights the need for sustained, long-term observations to quantify the circulation pathways and dynamics associated with exchange between the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea and provides context for interpreting observations collected as “snapshots” of more limited duration.

Significance Statement

The strong seasonal variations of the wind in the Indian Ocean create large and rapid changes in the ocean’s properties near Sri Lanka. This variable and poorly observed circulation is very important for how temperature and salinity are distributed across the northern Indian Ocean, both at the surface and at depths. Long-term and repeated surveys from autonomous Seagliders allow us to understand how freshwater inflow, atmospheric forcing, and underlying ocean variability act to produce observed contrasts (spatial and seasonal) in upper-ocean structure of the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea.

Open access
Peter P. Sullivan
,
James C. McWilliams
,
Jeffrey C. Weil
,
Edward G. Patton
, and
Harindra J. S. Fernando

Abstract

Turbulent flow in a weakly convective marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL) driven by geostrophic winds V g = 10 m s−1 and heterogeneous sea surface temperature (SST) is examined using fine-mesh large-eddy simulation (LES). The imposed SST heterogeneity is a single-sided warm or cold front with jumps Δθ = (2, −1.5) K varying over a horizontal x distance of 1 km characteristic of an upper-ocean mesoscale or submesoscale front. The geostrophic winds are oriented parallel to the SST isotherms (i.e., the winds are alongfront). Previously, Sullivan et al. examined a similar flow configuration but with geostrophic winds oriented perpendicular to the imposed SST isotherms (i.e., the winds were across-front). Results with alongfront and across-front winds differ in important ways. With alongfront winds, the ageostrophic surface wind is weak, about 5 times smaller than the geostrophic wind, and horizontal pressure gradients couple the SST front and the atmosphere in the momentum budget. With across-front winds, horizontal pressure gradients are weak and mean horizontal advection primarily balances vertical flux divergence. Alongfront winds generate persistent secondary circulations (SC) that modify the surface fluxes as well as turbulent fluxes in the MABL interior depending on the sign of Δθ. Warm and cold filaments develop opposing pairs of SC with a central upwelling or downwelling region between the cells. Cold filaments reduce the entrainment near the boundary layer top that can potentially impact cloud initiation. The surface-wind–SST-isotherm orientation is an important component of atmosphere–ocean coupling. The results also show frontogenetic tendencies in the MABL.

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Peter P. Sullivan
,
James C. McWilliams
,
Jeffrey C. Weil
,
Edward G. Patton
, and
Harindra J. S. Fernando

Abstract

Turbulent flow in a weakly convective marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL) driven by geostrophic winds U g = 10 m s−1 and heterogeneous sea surface temperature (SST) is examined using fine-mesh large-eddy simulation (LES). The imposed SST heterogeneity is a single-sided warm or cold front with temperature jumps Δθ = (2, −1.5) K varying over a horizontal distance between [0.1, −6] km characteristic of an upper-ocean mesoscale or submesoscale regime. A Fourier-fringe technique is implemented in the LES to overcome the assumptions of horizontally homogeneous periodic flow. Grid meshes of 2.2 × 109 points with fine-resolution (horizontal, vertical) spacing (δx = δy, δz) = (4.4, 2) m are used. Geostrophic winds blowing across SST isotherms generate secondary circulations that vary with the sign of the front. Warm fronts feature overshoots in the temperature field, nonlinear temperature and momentum fluxes, a local maximum in the vertical velocity variance, and an extended spatial evolution of the boundary layer with increasing distance from the SST front. Cold fronts collapse the incoming turbulence but leave behind residual motions above the boundary layer. In the case of a warm front, the internal boundary layer grows with downstream distance conveying the surface changes aloft and downwind. SST fronts modify entrainment fluxes and generate persistent horizontal advection at large distances from the front.

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Andrey A. Grachev
,
Christopher W. Fairall
,
Byron W. Blomquist
,
Harindra J. S. Fernando
,
Laura S. Leo
,
Sebastián F. Otárola-Bustos
,
James M. Wilczak
, and
Katherine L. McCaffrey

Abstract

Measurements made in the Columbia River basin (Oregon) in an area of irregular terrain during the second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2) field campaign are used to develop an optimized hybrid bulk algorithm to predict the surface turbulent fluxes from readily measured or modeled quantities over dry and wet bare or lightly vegetated soil surfaces. The hybrid (synthetic) algorithm combines (i) an aerodynamic method for turbulent flow, which is based on the transfer coefficients (drag coefficient and Stanton number), roughness lengths, and Monin–Obukhov similarity; and (ii) a modified Priestley–Taylor (P-T) algorithm with physically based ecophysiological constraints, which is essentially based on the surface energy budget (SEB) equation. Soil heat flux in the latter case was estimated from measurements of soil temperature and soil moisture. In the framework of the hybrid algorithm, bulk estimates of the momentum flux and the sensible heat flux are derived from a traditional aerodynamic approach, whereas the latent heat flux (or moisture flux) is evaluated from a modified P-T model. Direct measurements of the surface fluxes (turbulent and radiative) and other ancillary atmospheric/soil parameters made during WFIP2 for different soil conditions (dry and wet) are used to optimize and tune the hybrid bulk algorithm. The bulk flux estimates are validated against the measured eddy-covariance fluxes. We also discuss the SEB closure over dry and wet surfaces at various time scales based on the modeled and measured fluxes. Although this bulk flux algorithm is optimized for the data collected during the WFIP2, a hybrid approach can be used for similar flux-tower sites and field campaigns.

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Robert M. Banta
,
Yelena L. Pichugina
,
W. Alan Brewer
,
Kelly A. Balmes
,
Bianca Adler
,
Joseph Sedlar
,
Lisa S. Darby
,
David D. Turner
,
Jaymes S. Kenyon
,
Edward J. Strobach
,
Brian J. Carroll
,
Justin Sharp
,
Mark T. Stoelinga
,
Joel Cline
, and
Harindra J. S. Fernando

Abstract

Doppler-lidar wind-profile measurements at three sites were used to evaluate NWP model errors from two versions of NOAA’s 3-km-grid HRRR model, to see whether updates in the latest version 4 reduced errors when compared against the original version 1. Nested (750-m grid) versions of each were also tested to see how grid spacing affected forecast skill. The measurements were part of the field phase of the Second Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP2), an 18-month deployment into central Oregon–Washington, a major wind-energy-producing region. This study focuses on errors in simulating marine intrusions, a summertime, 600–800-m-deep, regional sea-breeze flow found to generate large errors. HRRR errors proved to be complex and site dependent. The most prominent error resulted from a premature drop in modeled marine-intrusion wind speeds after local midnight, when lidar-measured winds of greater than 8 m s−1 persisted through the next morning. These large negative errors were offset at low levels by positive errors due to excessive mixing, complicating the interpretation of model “improvement,” such that the updates to the full-scale versions produced mixed results, sometimes enhancing but sometimes degrading model skill. Nesting consistently improved model performance, with version 1’s nest producing the smallest errors overall. HRRR’s ability to represent the stages of sea-breeze forcing was evaluated using radiation budget, surface-energy balance, and near-surface temperature measurements available during WFIP2. The significant site-to-site differences in model error and the complex nature of these errors mean that field-measurement campaigns having dense arrays of profiling sensors are necessary to properly diagnose and characterize model errors, as part of a systematic approach to NWP model improvement.

Significance Statement

Dramatic increases in NWP model skill will be required over the coming decades. This paper describes the role of major deployments of accurate profiling sensors in achieving that goal and presents an example from the Second Wind Forecast Improvement Program (WFIP2). Wind-profile data from scanning Doppler lidars were used to evaluate two versions of HRRR, the original and an updated version, and nested versions of each. This study focuses on the ability of updated HRRR versions to improve upon predicting a regional sea-breeze flow, which was found to generate large errors by the original HRRR. Updates to the full-scale HRRR versions produced mixed results, but the finer-mesh versions consistently reduced model errors.

Open access
Robert M. Banta
,
Yelena L. Pichugina
,
W. Alan Brewer
,
Aditya Choukulkar
,
Kathleen O. Lantz
,
Joseph B. Olson
,
Jaymes Kenyon
,
Harindra J. S. Fernando
,
Raghu Krishnamurthy
,
Mark J. Stoelinga
,
Justin Sharp
,
Lisa S. Darby
,
David D. Turner
,
Sunil Baidar
, and
Scott P. Sandberg

Abstract

Ground-based Doppler-lidar instrumentation provides atmospheric wind data at dramatically improved accuracies and spatial/temporal resolutions. These capabilities have provided new insights into atmospheric flow phenomena, but they also should have a strong role in NWP model improvement. Insight into the nature of model errors can be gained by studying recurrent atmospheric flows, here a regional summertime diurnal sea breeze and subsequent marine-air intrusion into the arid interior of Oregon–Washington, where these winds are an important wind-energy resource. These marine intrusions were sampled by three scanning Doppler lidars in the Columbia River basin as part of the Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2), using data from summer 2016. Lidar time–height cross sections of wind speed identified 8 days when the diurnal flow cycle (peak wind speeds at midnight, afternoon minima) was obvious and strong. The 8-day composite time–height cross sections of lidar wind speeds are used to validate those generated by the operational NCEP–HRRR model. HRRR simulated the diurnal wind cycle, but produced errors in the timing of onset and significant errors due to a premature nighttime demise of the intrusion flow, producing low-bias errors of 6 m s−1. Day-to-day and in the composite, whenever a marine intrusion occurred, HRRR made these same errors. The errors occurred under a range of gradient wind conditions indicating that they resulted from the misrepresentation of physical processes within a limited region around the measurement locations. Because of their generation within a limited geographical area, field measurement programs can be designed to find and address the sources of these NWP errors.

Free access
Emily Shroyer
,
Amit Tandon
,
Debasis Sengupta
,
Harindra J. S. Fernando
,
Andrew J. Lucas
,
J. Thomas Farrar
,
Rajib Chattopadhyay
,
Simon de Szoeke
,
Maria Flatau
,
Adam Rydbeck
,
Hemantha Wijesekera
,
Michael McPhaden
,
Hyodae Seo
,
Aneesh Subramanian
,
R Venkatesan
,
Jossia Joseph
,
S. Ramsundaram
,
Arnold L. Gordon
,
Shannon M. Bohman
,
Jaynise Pérez
,
Iury T. Simoes-Sousa
,
Steven R. Jayne
,
Robert E. Todd
,
G. S. Bhat
,
Matthias Lankhorst
,
Tamara Schlosser
,
Katherine Adams
,
S. U. P Jinadasa
,
Manikandan Mathur
,
M. Mohapatra
,
E. Pattabhi Rama Rao
,
A. K. Sahai
,
Rashmi Sharma
,
Craig Lee
,
Luc Rainville
,
Deepak Cherian
,
Kerstin Cullen
,
Luca R. Centurioni
,
Verena Hormann
,
Jennifer MacKinnon
,
Uwe Send
,
Arachaporn Anutaliya
,
Amy Waterhouse
,
Garrett S. Black
,
Jeremy A. Dehart
,
Kaitlyn M. Woods
,
Edward Creegan
,
Gad Levy
,
Lakshmi H. Kantha
, and
Bulusu Subrahmanyam

Abstract

In the Bay of Bengal, the warm, dry boreal spring concludes with the onset of the summer monsoon and accompanying southwesterly winds, heavy rains, and variable air–sea fluxes. Here, we summarize the 2018 monsoon onset using observations collected through the multinational Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillations in the Bay of Bengal (MISO-BoB) program between the United States, India, and Sri Lanka. MISO-BoB aims to improve understanding of monsoon intraseasonal variability, and the 2018 field effort captured the coupled air–sea response during a transition from active-to-break conditions in the central BoB. The active phase of the ∼20-day research cruise was characterized by warm sea surface temperature (SST > 30°C), cold atmospheric outflows with intermittent heavy rainfall, and increasing winds (from 2 to 15 m s−1). Accumulated rainfall exceeded 200 mm with 90% of precipitation occurring during the first week. The following break period was both dry and clear, with persistent 10–12 m s−1 wind and evaporation of 0.2 mm h−1. The evolving environmental state included a deepening ocean mixed layer (from ∼20 to 50 m), cooling SST (by ∼1°C), and warming/drying of the lower to midtroposphere. Local atmospheric development was consistent with phasing of the large-scale intraseasonal oscillation. The upper ocean stores significant heat in the BoB, enough to maintain SST above 29°C despite cooling by surface fluxes and ocean mixing. Comparison with reanalysis indicates biases in air–sea fluxes, which may be related to overly cool prescribed SST. Resolution of such biases offers a path toward improved forecasting of transition periods in the monsoon.

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