Abstract

The spatial and temporal evolution of supercooled water fields in ten wintertime storm systems occurring over the northern Colorado Rocky Mountain region have been examined using data collected by the recently developed scanning dual-channel microwave radiometer. These data were supported by several independent datasets including vertically pointing radar data, mountaintop liquid water content measurements, low and high altitude measurements of crystal rime characteristic rawinsonde data and precipitation intensity measurements.

The ten case studies discussed in this paper represent various stages in the synoptic scale evolution of storms that affect the northern Colorado Rockies. Liquid water was found to occur in nearly all stages of most of these storms. The temporal variations in the magnitude of the liquid water content were significant.

Three common features concerning the evolution of the liquid water field were observed in the prefrontal cloud systems: 1) an inverse relationship between precipitation rate and liquid water content occurred; 2) a direct relationship between cloud top temperature and liquid water content was observed; and 3) the magnitude of the liquid water content was consistently higher over the mountain slopes.

In the postfrontal cloud systems studied, the liquid water content exhibited little variability upwind of the mountain base but varied considerably in the vicinity of the mountain. In these three storms, the magnitude of the liquid water content over the ridge was inversely related to the precipitation rate at mountain base. Liquid water production near the ridgeline was associated with both orographic and convective forcing.

Three orographic cloud systems are discussed in this paper. These clouds formed in similar synoptic environments. The three systems were shallow, had tops warmer than −22°C, and had limited horizontal extent. As in the previous cases, the changes in the liquid water field were inversely associated with changes in precipitation rate. In one case, a decrease in liquid water content was also associated with a decrease in cloud top temperature.

Abstract

This study focuses on the meso-α- and meso-β-scale manifestations of the latent-heat-induced reduction of windward-side blocking to two flood-producing precipitation events on the leeside of the Sierra Nevada. Two simulations were performed—one employing full microphysics [control (CTRL)] and a second in which the latent heating terms are turned off in the microphysics [no latent heating (NLH)]. The differences between the CTRL and NLH are consistent with upstream latent heating—the moist, divergent, and ascending flow dominates the leeside of the mountain range in the CTRL producing copious spillover precipitation while dry high-momentum/downslope-descending flow dominates the NLH simulation on the leeside. A comprehensive sequence of events for spillover precipitation is formulated as follows: 1) Ascent within the exit region of a polar jet streak develops in response to velocity divergence aloft. 2) This ascent phases with ascent from the windward-side flow to create a mesoscale region of heavy upslope precipitation. 3) The latent heat release from the upslope precipitation reduces the upstream static stability and blocking. 4) A mesoscale ridge in the thickness field builds in the upper troposphere and induces subgeostrophic flow in the jet’s exit region above the mountain range. 5) Adjustments to this ridge result in a cross-mountain midlevel jet that facilitates a river of midlevel moisture advected over to the leeside. 6) Stretching of moist isentropic surfaces in proximity to the plume of moisture fluxes causes destabilization on the leeside and formation of a leeside mesolow. 7) Boundary layer air accelerates into the leeside mesolow to form a mountain-parallel low-level flow.

Abstract

A feed forward neural network (FFNN) is developed for tropical cyclone (TC) intensity prediction, where intensity is defined as the maximum 1-min average 10-m wind speed. This deep learning model incorporates a real-time operational estimate of the current intensity and predictors derived from Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF; 2017 version) Model forecasts. The FFNN model is developed with the operational constraint of being restricted to 6-h-old HWRF data. Best track intensity data are used for observational verification. The forecast training data are from 2014 to 2016 HWRF reforecast data and cover a wide variety of TCs from both the Atlantic and eastern Pacific Ocean basins. Cross validation shows that the FFNN increasingly outperforms the operational observation-adjusted HWRF (HWFI) in terms of mean absolute error (MAE) at forecast lead times from 3 to 57 h. Out-of-sample testing on real-time data from 2017 shows the HWFI produces lower MAE than the FFNN at lead times of 24 h or less and similar MAEs at later lead times. On the other hand, the 2017 data indicate significant potential for the FFNN in the prediction of rapid intensification (RI), with RI defined here as an intensification of at least 30 kt (1 kt ≈ 0.51 m s⁻¹) in a 24-h period. The FFNN produces 4 times the number of hits in HWFI for RI. While the FFNN has more false alarms than the HWFI, Brier skill scores show that, in the Atlantic, the FFNN has significantly greater skill than the HWFI and probabilistic Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction System RI index.

Abstract

The synoptic structure of two case studies of heavy “spillover” or leeside precipitation—1–2 January 1997 and 30–31 December 2005—that resulted in Truckee River flooding are analyzed over the North Pacific beginning approximately 7 days prior to the events. Several sequential cyclone-scale systems are tracked across the North Pacific, culminating in the strengthening and elongation of a polar jet stream’s deep exit region over northern California and Nevada. These extratropical cyclones separate extremely cold air from Siberia from an active intertropical convergence zone with broad mesoscale convective systems and tropical cyclones. The development of moisture surges resulting in leeside flooding precipitation over the Sierra Nevada is coupled to adjustments within the last wave in the sequence of cyclone waves. Stage I of the process occurs as the final wave moves across the Pacific and its polar jet streak becomes very long, thus traversing much of the eastern Pacific. Stage II involves the development of a low-level return branch circulation [low-level jet (LLJ)] within the exit region of the final cyclone scale wave. Stage III is associated with the low-level jet’s convergence under the upper-level divergence within the left exit region, which results in upward vertical motions, dynamic destabilization, and the development of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). Stage IV is forced by the latent heating and subsynoptic-scale ridging caused by each MCS, which results in a region of diabatic isallobaric accelerations downstream from the MCS-induced mesoridge. During stage IV the convectively induced accelerating flow, well to the southeast of the upper-level jet core, organizes a midlevel jet and plume of moisture or midlevel atmospheric river, which is above and frequently out of phase with (e.g., southeast of) the low-level atmospheric river described in ahead of the surface cold front. Stage V occurs as the final sequential midlevel river arrives over the Sierra Nevada. It phases with the low-level river, allowing upslope and midlevel moisture advection, thus creating a highly concentrated moist plume extending from near 700 to nearly 500 hPa, which subsequently advects moisture over the terrain.

When simulations are performed without upstream convective heating, the horizontal moisture fluxes over the Sierra Nevada are reduced by ∼30%, indicating the importance of convection in organizing the midlevel atmospheric rivers. The convective heating acts to accelerate the midlevel jet flow and create the secondary atmospheric river between ∼500 and 700 hPa near the 305-K isentropic surface. This midlevel moisture surge slopes forward with height and transports warm moist air over the Sierra Nevada to typically rain shadowed regions on the lee side of the range. Both observationally generated and model-generated back trajectories confirm the importance of this convectively forced rapid lifting process over the North Pacific west of the California coast ∼12 h and ∼1200 km upstream prior to heavy leeside spillover precipitation over the Sierra Nevada.

Abstract

A new approach is described for calculating the mass (m) and terminal velocity (V _t ) of ice particles from airborne and balloon-borne imaging probe data as well as its applications for remote sensing and modeling studies. Unlike past studies that derived these parameters from the maximum (projected) dimension (D) and habit alone, the “two-parameter approach” uses D and the particle's projected cross-sectional area (A). Expressions were developed that relate the area ratio (A _r ; the projected area of an ice particle normalized by the area of a circle with diameter D) to its effective density (ρ _e ) and to V _t .

Habit-dependent, power-law relationships between ρ _e and A _r were developed using analytic representations of the geometry of various types of planar and spatial ice crystals. Relationships were also derived from new or reanalyzed data for single ice particles and aggregates observed in clouds and at the ground.

The mass relationships were evaluated by comparing calculations to direct measurements of ice water content (IWC). The calculations were from Particle Measuring Systems (PMS) 2D-C and 2D-P probes of particle size distributions in ice cloud layers on 3 days during an Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) field campaign in Oklahoma; the direct measurements were from counterflow virtual impactor (CVI) observations in ice cloud layers during the field campaign. Agreement was generally to within 20%, whereas using previous mass–dimension relationship approaches usually produced larger differences. Comparison of ground-based measurements of radar reflectivity with calculations from collocated balloon-borne ice crystal measurements also showed that the new method accurately captured the vertical reflectivity structure. Improvements in the accuracy of the estimates from the earlier mass–dimension relationships were achieved by converting them to the new form. A new, more accurate mass–dimension relationship for spatial, cirrus-type crystals was deduced from the comparison.

The relationship between V _t and A _r was derived from a combination of theory and observations. A new expression accounting for the drag coefficients of large aggregates was developed from observational data. Explicit relationships for calculating V _t as a function of D for aggregates with a variety of component crystals were developed.

Abstract

Distributed glacier surface melt models are often forced using air temperature fields that are either downscaled from climate models or reanalysis, or extrapolated from station measurements. Typically, the downscaling and/or extrapolation are performed using a constant temperature lapse rate, which is often taken to be the free-air moist adiabatic lapse rate (MALR: 6°–7°C km⁻¹). To explore the validity of this approach, the authors examined altitudinal gradients in daily mean air temperature along six transects across four glaciers in the Canadian high Arctic. The dataset includes over 58 000 daily averaged temperature measurements from 69 sensors covering the period 1988–2007. Temperature lapse rates near glacier surfaces vary on both daily and seasonal time scales, are consistently lower than the MALR (ablation season mean: 4.9°C km⁻¹), and exhibit strong regional covariance. A significant fraction of the daily variability in lapse rates is associated with changes in free-atmospheric temperatures (higher temperatures = lower lapse rates). The temperature fields generated by downscaling point location summit elevation temperatures to the glacier surface using temporally variable lapse rates are a substantial improvement over those generated using the static MALR. These findings suggest that lower near-surface temperature lapse rates can be expected under a warming climate and that the air temperature near the glacier surface is less sensitive to changes in the temperature of the free atmosphere than is generally assumed.

Abstract

Cirrus cloud daytime top-of-the-atmosphere radiative forcing (TOA CRF) is estimated for a 2-yr NASA Micro-Pulse Lidar Network (532 nm; MPLNET) dataset collected at Fairbanks, Alaska. Two-year-averaged daytime TOA CRF is estimated to be between −1.08 and 0.78 W·m⁻² (from −0.49 to 1.10 W·m⁻² in 2017, and from −1.67 to 0.47 W·m⁻² in 2018). This subarctic study completes a now trilogy of MPLNET ground-based cloud forcing investigations, following midlatitude and tropical studies by Campbell et al. at Greenbelt, Maryland, and Lolli et al. at Singapore. Campbell et al. hypothesize a global meridional daytime TOA CRF gradient that begins as positive at the equator (2.20–2.59 W·m⁻² over land and from −0.46 to 0.42 W·m⁻² over ocean at Singapore), becomes neutral in the midlatitudes (0.03–0.27 W·m⁻² over land in Maryland), and turns negative moving poleward. This study does not completely confirm Campbell et al., as values are not found as exclusively negative. Evidence in historical reanalysis data suggests that daytime cirrus forcing in and around the subarctic likely once was exclusively negative. Increasing tropopause heights, inducing higher and colder cirrus, have likely increased regional forcing over the last 40 years. We hypothesize that subarctic interannual cloud variability is likely a considerable influence on global cirrus cloud forcing sensitivity, given the irregularity of polar versus midlatitude synoptic weather intrusions. This study and hypothesis lay the basis for an extrapolation of these MPLNET experiments to satellite-based lidar cirrus cloud datasets.

Abstract

The main field activities of the Coordinated Airborne Studies in the Tropics (CAST) campaign took place in the west Pacific during January–February 2014. The field campaign was based in Guam (13.5°N, 144.8°E), using the U.K. Facility for Airborne Atmospheric Measurements (FAAM) BAe-146 atmospheric research aircraft, and was coordinated with the Airborne Tropical Tropopause Experiment (ATTREX) project with an unmanned Global Hawk and the Convective Transport of Active Species in the Tropics (CONTRAST) campaign with a Gulfstream V aircraft. Together, the three aircraft were able to make detailed measurements of atmospheric structure and composition from the ocean surface to 20 km. These measurements are providing new information about the processes influencing halogen and ozone levels in the tropical west Pacific, as well as the importance of trace-gas transport in convection for the upper troposphere and stratosphere. The FAAM aircraft made a total of 25 flights in the region between 1°S and 14°N and 130° and 155°E. It was used to sample at altitudes below 8 km, with much of the time spent in the marine boundary layer. It measured a range of chemical species and sampled extensively within the region of main inflow into the strong west Pacific convection. The CAST team also made ground-based measurements of a number of species (including daily ozonesondes) at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program site on Manus Island, Papua New Guinea (2.1°S, 147.4°E). This article presents an overview of the CAST project, focusing on the design and operation of the west Pacific experiment. It additionally discusses some new developments in CAST, including flights of new instruments on board the Global Hawk in February–March 2015.

Abstract

Winds measured with 915- and 404-MHz wind profilers are frequently found to have nonrandom errors as large as 15 m s⁻¹ when compared to simultaneously measured rawinsonde winds. Detailed studies of these errors which occur only at night below about 4 km in altitude and have a pronounced seasonal pattern, indicate that they are due to the wind profilers' detection of migrating songbirds (passerines). Characteristics of contaminated data at various stages of data processing are described, including raw time series, individual spectra, averaged spectra, 30- or 60-s moments, 3- or 6-min winds, and hourly averaged winds. An automated technique for the rejection of contaminated data in historical datasets, based on thresholding high values of rnoment-level reflectivity and spectral width, is shown to be effective. Techniques designed for future wind profiter data acquisition systems are described that show promise for rejecting bird echoes, with the additional capability of being able to retrieve the true wind velocity in many instances. Finally, characteristics of bird migration revealed by wind profilers are described, including statistics of the spring (March–May) 1993 migration season determined from the 404-MHz Wind Profiler Demonstration Network (WPDN). During that time, contamination of moment data occurred on 43% of the nights monitored.