Search Results

You are looking at 11 - 20 of 31 items for

  • Author or Editor: James S. Risbey x
  • Refine by Access: All Content x
Clear All Modify Search
James S. Risbey
,
Terence J. O’Kane
,
Didier P. Monselesan
,
Christian Franzke
, and
Illia Horenko

Abstract

This study applies a finite-element, bounded-variation, vector autoregressive method to assess midtropospheric flow regimes characterized by regime switches between metastable states. The flow is assessed in reanalysis data from three different reanalysis sets assimilating surface data only; surface and upper-air data; and ocean, surface, and upper-air data. Results are generally consistent across the reanalyses and confirm the utility of surface-only reanalyses for capturing midtropospheric variability. The method is applied to a set of regional domains in the Northern Hemisphere and for the full-hemispheric domain. Composites of the metastable states for each region yield structures that are consistent with the well-documented teleconnection modes: the North Atlantic Oscillation in the Atlantic Ocean, the Pacific–North America pattern (PNA) in the Pacific Ocean, and Scandinavian blocking over Eurasia. The PNA mode includes a clear waveguide structure in midlatitudes. The Northern Hemisphere domain yields a state composite that reflects aspects of an annular mode (Arctic Oscillation), where the annular component in midlatitudes comprises a circumglobal waveguide. The Northern Hemisphere waveguide is characterized by wavenumber 5. Some of the nodes in this circumglobal waveguide manifest as part of regional dipole structures like the PNA. This situation contrasts with the Southern Hemisphere, where the circumglobal waveguide exhibits wavenumbers 3 and 5 and is monopolar. For each of the regions and modes examined, the annual time series of residence percent in each state displays prominent decadal variability and provides a clear means of identifying regimes of the major teleconnection modes.

Full access
Christopher J. Paciorek
,
James S. Risbey
,
Valérie Ventura
, and
Richard D. Rosen

Abstract

The National Centers for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP–NCAR) reanalysis is used to estimate time trends of, and analyze the relationships among, six indices of cyclone activity or forcing for the winters of 1949–99, over the region 20°–70°N. The indices are Eady growth rate and temperature variance, both at 500 hPa; surface meridional temperature gradient; the 95th percentile of near-surface wind speed; and counts of cyclones and intense cyclones. With multiple indices, one can examine different aspects of storm activity and forcing and assess the robustness of the results to various definitions of a cyclone index. Results are reported both as averages over broad spatial regions and at the resolution of the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis grid, for which the false discovery rate methodology is used to assess statistical significance.

The Eady growth rate, temperature variance, and extreme wind indices are reasonably well correlated over the two major storm track regions of the Northern Hemisphere as well as over northern North America and Eurasia, but weakly correlated elsewhere. These indices show moderately strong correlations with each of the two cyclone count indices over much of the storm tracks when the count indices are offset 7.5° to the north.

Regional averages over the Atlantic, the Pacific, and Eurasia show either no long-term change or a decrease in the total number of cyclones; however, all regions show an increase in intense cyclones. The Eady growth rate, temperature variance, and wind indices generally increase in these regions. On a finer spatial scale, these three indices increase significantly over the storm tracks and parts of Eurasia. The intense cyclone count index also increases locally, but insignificantly, over the storm tracks. The wind and intense cyclone indices suggest an increase in impacts from cyclones, primarily over the oceans.

Full access
Michael R. Grose
,
James S. Risbey
,
Mitchell T. Black
, and
David J. Karoly
Full access
James S. Risbey
,
Peter J. Lamb
,
Ron L. Miller
,
Michael C. Morgan
, and
Gerard H. Roe

Abstract

A set of regional climate scenarios is constructed for two study regions in North America using a combination of GCM output and synoptic–dynamical reasoning. The approach begins by describing the structure and components of a climate scenario and identifying the dynamical determinants of large-scale and regional climate. Expert judgement techniques are used to categorize the tendencies of these elements in response to increased greenhouse forcing in climate model studies. For many of the basic dynamical elements, tendencies are ambiguous, and changes in sign (magnitude, position) can usually be argued in either direction. A set of climate scenarios is produced for winter and summer, emphasizing the interrelationships among dynamical features, and adjusting GCM results on the basis of known deficiences in GCM simulations of the dynamical features. The scenarios are qualitative only, consistent with the level of precision afforded by the uncertainty in understanding of the dynamics, and in order to provide an outline of the reasoning and chain of contingencies on which the scenarios are based. The three winter scenarios outlined correspond roughly to a north–south displacement of the stationary wave pattern, to an increase in amplitude of the pattern, and to a shift in phase of the pattern. These scenarios illustrate that small changes in the dynamics can lead to large changes in regional climate in some regions, while other regions are apparently insensitive to some of the large changes in dynamics that can be plausibly hypothesized. The dynamics of summer regional climate changes are even more difficult to project, though thermodynamic considerations allow some more general conclusions to be reached in this season. Given present uncertainties it is difficult to constrain regional climate projections.

Full access
Caroline C. Ummenhofer
,
Peter C. McIntosh
,
Michael J. Pook
, and
James S. Risbey

Abstract

Characteristics of atmospheric blocking in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) are explored in atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) simulations with the Community Atmosphere Model, version 3, with a particular focus on the Australia–New Zealand sector. Preferred locations of blocking in SH observations and the associated seasonal cycle are well represented in the AGCM simulations, but the observed magnitude of blocking is underestimated throughout the year, particularly in late winter and spring. This is related to overly zonal flow due to an enhanced meridional pressure gradient in the model, which results in a decreased amplitude of the longwave trough/ridge pattern. A range of AGCM sensitivity experiments explores the effect on SH blocking of tropical heating, midlatitude sea surface temperatures, and land–sea temperature gradients created over the Australian continent during austral winter. The combined effects of tropical heating and extratropical temperature gradients are further explored in a configuration that is favorable for blocking in the Australia–New Zealand sector with warm SST anomalies to the north of Australia, cold to the southwest of Australia, warm to the southeast, and cool Australian land temperatures. The blocking-favorable configuration indicates a significant strengthening of the subtropical jet and a reduction in midlatitude flow, which results from changes in the thermal wind. While these overall changes in mean climate, predominantly forced by the tropical heating, enhance blocking activity, the magnitude of atmospheric blocking compared to observations is still underestimated. The blocking-unfavorable configuration with surface forcing anomalies of opposite sign results in a weakening subtropical jet, enhanced midlatitude flow, and significantly reduced blocking.

Full access
James S. Risbey
,
Didier P. Monselesan
,
Amanda S. Black
,
Thomas S. Moore
,
Doug Richardson
,
Dougal T. Squire
, and
Carly R. Tozer

Abstract

From time to time atmospheric flows become organized and form coherent long-lived structures. Such structures could be propagating, quasi-stationary, or recur in place. We investigate the ability of principal components analysis (PCA) and archetypal analysis (AA) to identify long-lived events, excluding propagating forms. Our analysis is carried out on the Southern Hemisphere midtropospheric flow represented by geopotential height at 500 hPa (Z 500). The leading basis patterns of Z 500 for PCA and AA are similar and describe structures representing (or similar to) the southern annular mode (SAM) and Pacific–South American (PSA) pattern. Long-lived events are identified here from sequences of 8 days or longer where the same basis pattern dominates for PCA or AA. AA identifies more long-lived events than PCA using this approach. The most commonly occurring long-lived event for both AA and PCA is the annular SAM-like pattern. The second most commonly occurring event is the PSA-like Pacific wave train for both AA and PCA. For AA the flow at any given time is approximated as weighted contributions from each basis pattern, which lends itself to metrics for discriminating among basis patterns. These show that the longest long-lived events are in general better expressed than shorter events. Case studies of long-lived events featuring a blocking structure and an annular structure show that both PCA and AA can identify and discriminate the dominant basis pattern that most closely resembles the flow event.

Full access
Doug Richardson
,
Amanda S. Black
,
Didier P. Monselesan
,
Thomas S. Moore II
,
James S. Risbey
,
Andrew Schepen
,
Dougal T. Squire
, and
Carly R. Tozer

Abstract

Subseasonal forecast skill is not homogeneous in time, and prior assessment of the likely forecast skill would be valuable for end-users. We propose a method for identifying periods of high forecast confidence using atmospheric circulation patterns, with an application to southern Australia precipitation. In particular, we use archetypal analysis to derive six patterns, called archetypes, of daily 500-hPa geopotential height (Z 500) fields over Australia. We assign Z 500 reanalysis fields to the closest-matching archetype and subsequently link the archetypes to precipitation for three key regions in the Australian agriculture and energy sectors: the Murray Basin, southwest Western Australia, and western Tasmania. Using a 20-yr hindcast dataset from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction system, we identify periods of high confidence as when hindcast Z 500 fields closely match an archetype according to a distance criterion. We compare the precipitation hindcast accuracy during these confident periods compared to normal. Considering all archetypes, we show that there is greater skill during confident periods for lead times of less than 10 days in the Murray Basin and western Tasmania, and for greater than 6 days in southwest Western Australia, although these conclusions are subject to substantial uncertainty. By breaking down the skill results for each archetype individually, we highlight how skill tends to be greater than normal for those archetypes associated with drier-than-average conditions.

Open access
Terence J. O’Kane
,
Dougal T. Squire
,
Paul A. Sandery
,
Vassili Kitsios
,
Richard J. Matear
,
Thomas S. Moore
,
James S. Risbey
, and
Ian G. Watterson

Abstract

Recent studies have shown that regardless of model configuration, skill in predicting El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), in terms of target month and forecast lead time, remains largely dependent on the temporal characteristics of the boreal spring predictability barrier. Continuing the 2019 study by O’Kane et al., we compare multiyear ensemble ENSO forecasts from the Climate Analysis Forecast Ensemble (CAFE) to ensemble forecasts from state-of-the-art dynamical coupled models in the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) project. The CAFE initial perturbations are targeted such that they are specific to tropical Pacific thermocline variability. With respect to individual NMME forecasts and multimodel ensemble averages, the CAFE forecasts reveal improvements in skill when predicting ENSO at lead times greater than 6 months, in particular when predictability is most strongly limited by the boreal spring barrier. Initial forecast perturbations generated exclusively as disturbances in the equatorial Pacific thermocline are shown to improve the forecast skill at longer lead times in terms of anomaly correlation and the random walk sign test. Our results indicate that augmenting current initialization methods with initial perturbations targeting instabilities specific to the tropical Pacific thermocline may improve long-range ENSO prediction.

Free access
Amanda S. Black
,
James S. Risbey
,
Christopher C. Chapman
,
Didier P. Monselesan
,
Thomas S. Moore II
,
Michael J. Pook
,
Doug Richardson
,
Bernadette M. Sloyan
,
Dougal T. Squire
, and
Carly R. Tozer

Abstract

Large-scale cloud features referred to as cloudbands are known to be related to widespread and heavy rain via the transport of tropical heat and moisture to higher latitudes. The Australian northwest cloudband is such a feature that has been identified in simple searches of satellite imagery but with limited investigation of its atmospheric dynamical support. An accurate, long-term climatology of northwest cloudbands is key to robustly assessing these events. A dynamically based search algorithm has been developed that is guided by the presence and orientation of the subtropical jet stream. This jet stream is the large-scale atmospheric feature that determines the development and alignment of a cloudband. Using a new 40-yr dataset of cloudband events compiled by this search algorithm, composite atmospheric and ocean surface conditions over the period 1979–2018 have been assessed. Composite cloudband upper-level flow revealed a tilted low pressure trough embedded in a Rossby wave train. Composites of vertically integrated water vapor transport centered around the jet maximum during northwest cloudband events reveal a distinct atmospheric river supplying tropical moisture for cloudband rainfall. Parcel backtracking indicated multiple regions of moisture support for cloudbands. A thermal wind anomaly orientated with respect to an enhanced sea surface temperature gradient over the Indian Ocean was also a key composite cloudband feature. A total of 300 years of a freely coupled control simulation of the ACCESS-D system was assessed for its ability to simulate northwest cloudbands. Composite analysis of model cloudbands compared reasonably well to reanalysis despite some differences in seasonality and frequency of occurrence.

Full access
Michael R. Grose
,
Mitchell Black
,
James S. Risbey
,
Peter Uhe
,
Pandora K. Hope
,
Karsten Haustein
, and
Dann Mitchell
Full access