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- Author or Editor: John W. Nielsen-Gammon x
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Abstract
The evolution of the southerly low-level jet (LLJ) during a return flow event is studied using output from the Penn State/NCAR Mesoscale Model (Version 4). Three geographically different southerly LLJs develop in the simulation: one over the southern Plains of the United States, a second southwest of Brownsville, Texas, and a third over the western Gulf of Mexico. The LLJ over the Plains is found to form first as an inertial oscillation and later as a response to lee troughing and an elevated mixed layer that develops over the region. Over Mexico, the temperature structure over the Altiplanicie Mexicana (Mexican High Plain) is responsible for a locally intense low-level pressure gradient east of the High Plain which remains nearly stationary over two diurnal cycles. The LLJ over the western Gulf of Mexico results largely from topographic blocking of the low-level southerly flow by the eastern end of the Neovolcanic Cordillera northwest of Veracruz, Mexico.
The evolution of the lower troposphere over the southern Plains resembles the Carlson and Ludlam conceptual model for a severe storm environment, but the structure of the return flow is complex. When midlevel westerlies are weak, mesoscale and boundary layer processes govern the development of LLJs. As the west and southwesterly winds increase with an approaching upper-level disturbance, synoptic influences overwhelm the mesoscale processes leading to a single, larger-scale LLJ.
Abstract
The evolution of the southerly low-level jet (LLJ) during a return flow event is studied using output from the Penn State/NCAR Mesoscale Model (Version 4). Three geographically different southerly LLJs develop in the simulation: one over the southern Plains of the United States, a second southwest of Brownsville, Texas, and a third over the western Gulf of Mexico. The LLJ over the Plains is found to form first as an inertial oscillation and later as a response to lee troughing and an elevated mixed layer that develops over the region. Over Mexico, the temperature structure over the Altiplanicie Mexicana (Mexican High Plain) is responsible for a locally intense low-level pressure gradient east of the High Plain which remains nearly stationary over two diurnal cycles. The LLJ over the western Gulf of Mexico results largely from topographic blocking of the low-level southerly flow by the eastern end of the Neovolcanic Cordillera northwest of Veracruz, Mexico.
The evolution of the lower troposphere over the southern Plains resembles the Carlson and Ludlam conceptual model for a severe storm environment, but the structure of the return flow is complex. When midlevel westerlies are weak, mesoscale and boundary layer processes govern the development of LLJs. As the west and southwesterly winds increase with an approaching upper-level disturbance, synoptic influences overwhelm the mesoscale processes leading to a single, larger-scale LLJ.
Abstract
The use of potential vorticity (PV) allows the efficient description of the dynamics of nearly balanced atmospheric flow phenomena, but the distribution of PV must be simply represented for ease in interpretation. Representations of PV on isentropic or isobaric surfaces can be cumbersome, as analyses of several surfaces spanning the troposphere must be constructed to fully apprehend the complete PV distribution.
Following a brief review of the relationship between PV and nearly balanced flows, it is demonstrated that the tropospheric PV has a simple distribution, and as a consequence, an analysis of potential temperature along the dynamic tropopause (here defined as a surface of constant PV) allows for a simple representation of the upper-tropospheric and lower-stratospheric PV. The construction and interpretation of these tropopause maps, which may be termed “isertelic” analyses of potential temperature, are described. In addition, techniques to construct dynamical representations of the lower-tropospheric PV and near-surface potential temperature, which complement these isertelic analyses, are also suggested. Case studies are presented to illustrate the utility of these techniques in diagnosing phenomena such as cyclogenesis, tropopause folds, the formation of an upper trough, and the effects of latent heat release on the upper and lower troposphere.
Abstract
The use of potential vorticity (PV) allows the efficient description of the dynamics of nearly balanced atmospheric flow phenomena, but the distribution of PV must be simply represented for ease in interpretation. Representations of PV on isentropic or isobaric surfaces can be cumbersome, as analyses of several surfaces spanning the troposphere must be constructed to fully apprehend the complete PV distribution.
Following a brief review of the relationship between PV and nearly balanced flows, it is demonstrated that the tropospheric PV has a simple distribution, and as a consequence, an analysis of potential temperature along the dynamic tropopause (here defined as a surface of constant PV) allows for a simple representation of the upper-tropospheric and lower-stratospheric PV. The construction and interpretation of these tropopause maps, which may be termed “isertelic” analyses of potential temperature, are described. In addition, techniques to construct dynamical representations of the lower-tropospheric PV and near-surface potential temperature, which complement these isertelic analyses, are also suggested. Case studies are presented to illustrate the utility of these techniques in diagnosing phenomena such as cyclogenesis, tropopause folds, the formation of an upper trough, and the effects of latent heat release on the upper and lower troposphere.
Abstract
Abstract
Abstract
Left-moving supercells, which rotate anticyclonically, are much less common than their right-moving counterparts but are nevertheless capable of producing severe weather. On 26 May 1992, a severe left-moving thunderstorm over east Texas developed within range of the WSR-88D (Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler) radar at League City, Texas. The evolution of the left-moving thunderstorm, including its split from its parent thunderstorm, is presented using standard WSR-88D products. The storm produced wind damage and large hail, whose presence in the thunderstorm caused a flare echo in the return signal. No automated WSR-88D algorithms exist to detect mesoanticyclones or flares, so the subjective interpretation of these radar signatures as indicators of severe weather can be critical for the proper issuance of warnings for such storms.
Abstract
Left-moving supercells, which rotate anticyclonically, are much less common than their right-moving counterparts but are nevertheless capable of producing severe weather. On 26 May 1992, a severe left-moving thunderstorm over east Texas developed within range of the WSR-88D (Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler) radar at League City, Texas. The evolution of the left-moving thunderstorm, including its split from its parent thunderstorm, is presented using standard WSR-88D products. The storm produced wind damage and large hail, whose presence in the thunderstorm caused a flare echo in the return signal. No automated WSR-88D algorithms exist to detect mesoanticyclones or flares, so the subjective interpretation of these radar signatures as indicators of severe weather can be critical for the proper issuance of warnings for such storms.
Abstract
Advances in computer power, new forecasting challenges, and new diagnostic techniques have brought about changes in the way atmospheric development and vertical motion are diagnosed in an operational setting. Many of these changes, such as improved model skill, model resolution, and ensemble forecasting, have arguably been detrimental to the ability of forecasters to understand and respond to the evolving atmosphere. The use of nondivergent wind in place of geostrophic wind would be a step in the right direction, but the advantages of potential vorticity suggest that its widespread adoption as a diagnostic tool on the west side of the Atlantic is overdue. Ertel potential vorticity (PV), when scaled to be compatible with pseudopotential vorticity, is generally similar to pseudopotential vorticity, so forecasters accustomed to quasigeostrophic reasoning through the height tendency equation can transfer some of their intuition into the Ertel-PV framework. Indeed, many of the differences between pseudopotential vorticity and Ertel potential vorticity are consequences of the choice of definition of quasigeostrophic PV and are not fundamental to the quasigeostrophic system. Thus, at its core, PV thinking is consistent with commonly used quasigeostrophic diagnostic techniques.
Abstract
Advances in computer power, new forecasting challenges, and new diagnostic techniques have brought about changes in the way atmospheric development and vertical motion are diagnosed in an operational setting. Many of these changes, such as improved model skill, model resolution, and ensemble forecasting, have arguably been detrimental to the ability of forecasters to understand and respond to the evolving atmosphere. The use of nondivergent wind in place of geostrophic wind would be a step in the right direction, but the advantages of potential vorticity suggest that its widespread adoption as a diagnostic tool on the west side of the Atlantic is overdue. Ertel potential vorticity (PV), when scaled to be compatible with pseudopotential vorticity, is generally similar to pseudopotential vorticity, so forecasters accustomed to quasigeostrophic reasoning through the height tendency equation can transfer some of their intuition into the Ertel-PV framework. Indeed, many of the differences between pseudopotential vorticity and Ertel potential vorticity are consequences of the choice of definition of quasigeostrophic PV and are not fundamental to the quasigeostrophic system. Thus, at its core, PV thinking is consistent with commonly used quasigeostrophic diagnostic techniques.
Abstract
A new homogeneous climate division monthly precipitation dataset [based on full network estimated precipitation (FNEP)] was created as an alternative to the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) climate division dataset. These alternative climate division monthly precipitation values were estimated using an equal-weighted average of Cooperative Observer Program stations that contained serially complete time series. Missing station observations were estimated by a procedure that was optimized through testing on U.S. Historical Climate Network stations. Inhomogeneities in the NCDC dataset arise from two principal causes. The pre-1931 estimation of NCDC climate division monthly precipitation from statewide averages led to a significant time series discontinuity in several climate divisions. From 1931 to the present, NCDC climate division averages have been calculated from a subset of available station data within each climate division, and temporal changes in the location of available stations have caused artificial changes in the time series. The FNEP climate division dataset is recommended over the NCDC dataset for studies involving climate trends or long-term climate variability. According to the FNEP data, the 1895–2009 linear precipitation trend is positive across most of the United States, and trends exceed 10% per century across the southern plains and the Corn Belt. Remaining inhomogeneities from changes in gauge technology and station location may be responsible for an artificial trend of 1%–3% per century.
Abstract
A new homogeneous climate division monthly precipitation dataset [based on full network estimated precipitation (FNEP)] was created as an alternative to the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) climate division dataset. These alternative climate division monthly precipitation values were estimated using an equal-weighted average of Cooperative Observer Program stations that contained serially complete time series. Missing station observations were estimated by a procedure that was optimized through testing on U.S. Historical Climate Network stations. Inhomogeneities in the NCDC dataset arise from two principal causes. The pre-1931 estimation of NCDC climate division monthly precipitation from statewide averages led to a significant time series discontinuity in several climate divisions. From 1931 to the present, NCDC climate division averages have been calculated from a subset of available station data within each climate division, and temporal changes in the location of available stations have caused artificial changes in the time series. The FNEP climate division dataset is recommended over the NCDC dataset for studies involving climate trends or long-term climate variability. According to the FNEP data, the 1895–2009 linear precipitation trend is positive across most of the United States, and trends exceed 10% per century across the southern plains and the Corn Belt. Remaining inhomogeneities from changes in gauge technology and station location may be responsible for an artificial trend of 1%–3% per century.
Abstract
A high-resolution drought-monitoring tool was developed to assess drought on multiple time scales using the standardized precipitation index (SPI). Daily precipitation data at 4-km resolution are obtained from the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service multisensor precipitation estimates (MPE) and are aggregated on several time scales. Daily station precipitation data available from the Cooperative Observer Program (COOP) provide the historical context for the MPE precipitation data. Pearson type-III distribution parameters were interpolated to the 4-km grid on the basis of a regional frequency analysis of the COOP stations and L-moment ratios of the precipitation data. The resulting high-resolution SPI data can be used as guidance for the U.S. Drought Monitor at the subcounty scale in areas where local precipitation is the primary driver of drought. The temporal flexibility and spatial resolution of the drought-monitoring tool are used to illustrate the onset, intensity, and termination of the 2008–09 Texas drought, and the tool is shown to provide better county- and subcounty-scale information than do gauge-based products.
Abstract
A high-resolution drought-monitoring tool was developed to assess drought on multiple time scales using the standardized precipitation index (SPI). Daily precipitation data at 4-km resolution are obtained from the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service multisensor precipitation estimates (MPE) and are aggregated on several time scales. Daily station precipitation data available from the Cooperative Observer Program (COOP) provide the historical context for the MPE precipitation data. Pearson type-III distribution parameters were interpolated to the 4-km grid on the basis of a regional frequency analysis of the COOP stations and L-moment ratios of the precipitation data. The resulting high-resolution SPI data can be used as guidance for the U.S. Drought Monitor at the subcounty scale in areas where local precipitation is the primary driver of drought. The temporal flexibility and spatial resolution of the drought-monitoring tool are used to illustrate the onset, intensity, and termination of the 2008–09 Texas drought, and the tool is shown to provide better county- and subcounty-scale information than do gauge-based products.
Abstract
Quantitative diagnosis of low-Rossby-number flows using potential vorticity (PV) includes using elements of PV advection to deduce instantaneous tendencies of the balanced atmospheric state, most commonly the geopotential field. This technique, piecewise tendency diagnosis (PTD), is here applied with the prognostic balance equations (Bal-PTD) to obtain a quantitative dynamical diagnosis that in principle may be much more accurate than similar diagnoses using the quasigeostrophic (QG) equations.
When both are applied systematically to a case of rapid oceanic cyclogenesis, differences are found to arise owing to a variety of factors. The dominant factor is differences in the vertical influence of PV anomalies, which affects the partitioning between local and remote processes. QG overestimates the effect of lower-level PV, including surface potential temperature, in amplifying and controlling the motion of the upper-level system. Other differences are found, but overall the QG diagnosis gives results that are qualitatively similar to the nonlinear balance diagnosis. Quantitative accuracy requires the use of Bal-PTD.
Abstract
Quantitative diagnosis of low-Rossby-number flows using potential vorticity (PV) includes using elements of PV advection to deduce instantaneous tendencies of the balanced atmospheric state, most commonly the geopotential field. This technique, piecewise tendency diagnosis (PTD), is here applied with the prognostic balance equations (Bal-PTD) to obtain a quantitative dynamical diagnosis that in principle may be much more accurate than similar diagnoses using the quasigeostrophic (QG) equations.
When both are applied systematically to a case of rapid oceanic cyclogenesis, differences are found to arise owing to a variety of factors. The dominant factor is differences in the vertical influence of PV anomalies, which affects the partitioning between local and remote processes. QG overestimates the effect of lower-level PV, including surface potential temperature, in amplifying and controlling the motion of the upper-level system. Other differences are found, but overall the QG diagnosis gives results that are qualitatively similar to the nonlinear balance diagnosis. Quantitative accuracy requires the use of Bal-PTD.
Detecting Beam Blockage in Radar-Based Precipitation EstimatesAbstract
Gridded radar-based quantitative precipitation estimates (QPEs) are potentially ideal inputs for hydrological modeling and monitoring because of their high spatiotemporal resolution. Beam blockage is a common type of bias in radar QPEs related to the blockage of the radar beam by an obstruction, such as topography or tall buildings. This leads to a diminishment in the power of the transmitted beam beyond the range of obstruction and a systematic underestimation of reflectivity return to the radar site. A new spatial analysis technique for objectively identifying regions in which precipitation estimates are contaminated by beam blockage was developed. The methodology requires only a long-term precipitation climatology with no prerequisite knowledge of topography or known obstructions needed. For each radar domain, the QPEs are normalized by climatology and a low-pass Fourier series fit captures the expected precipitation as a function of azimuth angle. Beam blockage signatures are identified as radially coherent regions with normalized values that are systematically lower than the Fourier fit. Precipitation estimates sufficiently affected by beam blockage can be replaced by values estimated using neighboring unblocked estimates. The methodology is applied to the correction of the National Weather Service radar-based QPE dataset, whose estimates originate from the NEXRAD network in the central and eastern United States. The methodology is flexible enough to be useful for most radar installations and geographical regions with at least a few years of data.
Abstract
Gridded radar-based quantitative precipitation estimates (QPEs) are potentially ideal inputs for hydrological modeling and monitoring because of their high spatiotemporal resolution. Beam blockage is a common type of bias in radar QPEs related to the blockage of the radar beam by an obstruction, such as topography or tall buildings. This leads to a diminishment in the power of the transmitted beam beyond the range of obstruction and a systematic underestimation of reflectivity return to the radar site. A new spatial analysis technique for objectively identifying regions in which precipitation estimates are contaminated by beam blockage was developed. The methodology requires only a long-term precipitation climatology with no prerequisite knowledge of topography or known obstructions needed. For each radar domain, the QPEs are normalized by climatology and a low-pass Fourier series fit captures the expected precipitation as a function of azimuth angle. Beam blockage signatures are identified as radially coherent regions with normalized values that are systematically lower than the Fourier fit. Precipitation estimates sufficiently affected by beam blockage can be replaced by values estimated using neighboring unblocked estimates. The methodology is applied to the correction of the National Weather Service radar-based QPE dataset, whose estimates originate from the NEXRAD network in the central and eastern United States. The methodology is flexible enough to be useful for most radar installations and geographical regions with at least a few years of data.
Abstract
The intensification and evolution of midlatitude upper-tropospheric mobile troughs may be viewed in terms of the isentropic advection and deformation of the tropopause potential vorticity gradient. The potential vorticity viewpoint allows one to qualitatively assess observed events in the context of existing theories of mobile trough genesis, such as baroclinic instability or downstream development. In order to quantitatively determine the role of distinct dynamical process, the method of piecewise tendency diagnosis, or PTD, is developed. PTD is an extension of piecewise potential vorticity inversion applied to height tendencies, with the forcing terms in the quasigeostrophic height tendency equation partitioned into potential vorticity advection associated with distinct dynamical processes.
A particular case of mobile trough genesis, which occurred during 1–4 December 1980 over North America is diagnosed using PTD. Although about 20% of the intensification of the trough was due to superposition and amplification of the low-level cyclone during surface cyclogenesis, the diagnosis focuses on the height perturbation induced by the upper-level PV anomaly. The trough is found to have formed primarily through down-stream propagation of Rossby wave energy from disturbances over the, northwest Pacific. As the trough amplified, it interacted with an existing surface temperature gradient over the central United States and produced a front wave. As the frontal wave intensified, the favorable vertical tilt allowed mutual baroclinic amplification of the upper and lower systems. Eventually, the upper-level trough grew to sufficient amplitude that it began to lose energy downstream through wave propagation and the trough began to weaken even though a favorable tilt remained between the upper and lower systems. Horizontal deformation and small-scale vortex interaction were less important to the overall development of the mobile trough, but contributed significantly to intensification at various times in its lift cycle. The direct effects of the remaining dynamical processes excluding latent heating and friction, which were not diagnosed) were insignificant.
Abstract
The intensification and evolution of midlatitude upper-tropospheric mobile troughs may be viewed in terms of the isentropic advection and deformation of the tropopause potential vorticity gradient. The potential vorticity viewpoint allows one to qualitatively assess observed events in the context of existing theories of mobile trough genesis, such as baroclinic instability or downstream development. In order to quantitatively determine the role of distinct dynamical process, the method of piecewise tendency diagnosis, or PTD, is developed. PTD is an extension of piecewise potential vorticity inversion applied to height tendencies, with the forcing terms in the quasigeostrophic height tendency equation partitioned into potential vorticity advection associated with distinct dynamical processes.
A particular case of mobile trough genesis, which occurred during 1–4 December 1980 over North America is diagnosed using PTD. Although about 20% of the intensification of the trough was due to superposition and amplification of the low-level cyclone during surface cyclogenesis, the diagnosis focuses on the height perturbation induced by the upper-level PV anomaly. The trough is found to have formed primarily through down-stream propagation of Rossby wave energy from disturbances over the, northwest Pacific. As the trough amplified, it interacted with an existing surface temperature gradient over the central United States and produced a front wave. As the frontal wave intensified, the favorable vertical tilt allowed mutual baroclinic amplification of the upper and lower systems. Eventually, the upper-level trough grew to sufficient amplitude that it began to lose energy downstream through wave propagation and the trough began to weaken even though a favorable tilt remained between the upper and lower systems. Horizontal deformation and small-scale vortex interaction were less important to the overall development of the mobile trough, but contributed significantly to intensification at various times in its lift cycle. The direct effects of the remaining dynamical processes excluding latent heating and friction, which were not diagnosed) were insignificant.
