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Abstract
Every day, thousands of volunteers across the United States report the amount of precipitation they have received in the past 24 hours. This study focuses on the largest of these volunteer-submitted reports for each day, using precipitation measurements from the Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow Network (CoCoRaHS) from January 2010 to December 2017 as well as observations from the U.S. Cooperative Observer Program (COOP) network from January 1981 through December 2017. Results provide clarity on spatial variability, temporal variability, and seasonal cycle of contiguous U.S daily precipitation extremes (DPEs). During 2010–17, the DPEs ranged from 11 mm on 28 March 2013 in Oregon to 635 mm on 27 August 2017 in Texas during Hurricane Harvey. Coastal states are most prone to high daily precipitation totals, especially those bordering the Gulf of Mexico or Atlantic Gulf Stream. The average DPE value varies with season; it is greater than 175 mm in late August and less than 100 mm through meteorological winter. These observations also show that location of the DPE varies with season as well. For example, 28.5% of February extremes fall in Pacific states, whereas all August extremes occur east of that region. Perhaps most importantly, these findings demonstrate strength in numbers. The large daily sample size of CoCoRaHS and COOP networks forms a basis for monitoring, mapping, and categorizing DPEs, and other aspects of extreme precipitation, with considerable spatial detail.
Abstract
Every day, thousands of volunteers across the United States report the amount of precipitation they have received in the past 24 hours. This study focuses on the largest of these volunteer-submitted reports for each day, using precipitation measurements from the Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow Network (CoCoRaHS) from January 2010 to December 2017 as well as observations from the U.S. Cooperative Observer Program (COOP) network from January 1981 through December 2017. Results provide clarity on spatial variability, temporal variability, and seasonal cycle of contiguous U.S daily precipitation extremes (DPEs). During 2010–17, the DPEs ranged from 11 mm on 28 March 2013 in Oregon to 635 mm on 27 August 2017 in Texas during Hurricane Harvey. Coastal states are most prone to high daily precipitation totals, especially those bordering the Gulf of Mexico or Atlantic Gulf Stream. The average DPE value varies with season; it is greater than 175 mm in late August and less than 100 mm through meteorological winter. These observations also show that location of the DPE varies with season as well. For example, 28.5% of February extremes fall in Pacific states, whereas all August extremes occur east of that region. Perhaps most importantly, these findings demonstrate strength in numbers. The large daily sample size of CoCoRaHS and COOP networks forms a basis for monitoring, mapping, and categorizing DPEs, and other aspects of extreme precipitation, with considerable spatial detail.
Abstract
The climatology of Colorado’s historical extreme precipitation events shows a remarkable degree of seasonal and regional variability. Analysis of the largest historical daily precipitation totals at COOP stations across Colorado by season indicates that the largest recorded daily precipitation totals have ranged from less than 60 mm day−1 in some areas to more than 250 mm day−1 in others. East of the Continental Divide, winter events are rarely among the top 10 events at a given site, but spring events dominate in and near the foothills; summer events are most common across the lower-elevation eastern plains, while fall events are most typical for the lower elevations west of the Divide. The seasonal signal in Colorado’s central mountains is complex; high-elevation intense precipitation events have occurred in all months of the year, including summer, when precipitation is more likely to be liquid (as opposed to snow), which poses more of an instantaneous flood risk. Notably, the historic Colorado Front Range daily rainfall totals that contributed to the damaging floods in September 2013 occurred outside of that region’s typical season for most extreme precipitation (spring–summer). That event and many others highlight the fact that extreme precipitation in Colorado has occurred historically during all seasons and at all elevations, emphasizing a year-round statewide risk.
Abstract
The climatology of Colorado’s historical extreme precipitation events shows a remarkable degree of seasonal and regional variability. Analysis of the largest historical daily precipitation totals at COOP stations across Colorado by season indicates that the largest recorded daily precipitation totals have ranged from less than 60 mm day−1 in some areas to more than 250 mm day−1 in others. East of the Continental Divide, winter events are rarely among the top 10 events at a given site, but spring events dominate in and near the foothills; summer events are most common across the lower-elevation eastern plains, while fall events are most typical for the lower elevations west of the Divide. The seasonal signal in Colorado’s central mountains is complex; high-elevation intense precipitation events have occurred in all months of the year, including summer, when precipitation is more likely to be liquid (as opposed to snow), which poses more of an instantaneous flood risk. Notably, the historic Colorado Front Range daily rainfall totals that contributed to the damaging floods in September 2013 occurred outside of that region’s typical season for most extreme precipitation (spring–summer). That event and many others highlight the fact that extreme precipitation in Colorado has occurred historically during all seasons and at all elevations, emphasizing a year-round statewide risk.
Abstract
This article introduces two new tools developed to enhance drought impacts monitoring by citizen scientists. In collaboration with the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS), the National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC), and the Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow (CoCoRaHS) network, the Carolinas Integrated Sciences and Assessments (CISA) developed an experimental method of drought monitoring and reporting by citizen scientists. Since 2013, CISA has recruited CoCoRaHS observers in the Carolinas to participate in “condition monitoring,” the regular reporting of local conditions. In contrast to intermittent drought impact reports, condition monitoring creates a baseline for comparison of change through time and improves understanding of the onset, intensification, and recovery of drought.
A project evaluation demonstrated the usefulness of the qualitative reports, while also identifying a need for improved accessibility to the information and a quantitative metric to more quickly assess changing conditions. Evaluation findings informed the development of 1) a condition monitoring scale bar for inclusion on the national CoCoRaHS reporting form and 2) a web map to spatially display the condition monitoring reports. CoCoRaHS observers use the scale bar to record their assessment of local conditions, ranging from severely wet to severely dry. Their qualitative reports provide more in-depth information about their selection, noting the effects of weather and climate on the environment and communities in their area. The web map provides an easily accessible format for users such as the State Climate Offices to view the reports, facilitating the incorporation of CoCoRaHS observations into drought monitoring processes.
Abstract
This article introduces two new tools developed to enhance drought impacts monitoring by citizen scientists. In collaboration with the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS), the National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC), and the Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow (CoCoRaHS) network, the Carolinas Integrated Sciences and Assessments (CISA) developed an experimental method of drought monitoring and reporting by citizen scientists. Since 2013, CISA has recruited CoCoRaHS observers in the Carolinas to participate in “condition monitoring,” the regular reporting of local conditions. In contrast to intermittent drought impact reports, condition monitoring creates a baseline for comparison of change through time and improves understanding of the onset, intensification, and recovery of drought.
A project evaluation demonstrated the usefulness of the qualitative reports, while also identifying a need for improved accessibility to the information and a quantitative metric to more quickly assess changing conditions. Evaluation findings informed the development of 1) a condition monitoring scale bar for inclusion on the national CoCoRaHS reporting form and 2) a web map to spatially display the condition monitoring reports. CoCoRaHS observers use the scale bar to record their assessment of local conditions, ranging from severely wet to severely dry. Their qualitative reports provide more in-depth information about their selection, noting the effects of weather and climate on the environment and communities in their area. The web map provides an easily accessible format for users such as the State Climate Offices to view the reports, facilitating the incorporation of CoCoRaHS observations into drought monitoring processes.
Abstract
In recent years, hail accumulations from thunderstorms have occurred frequently enough to catch the attention of the National Weather Service, the general public, and news agencies. Despite the extreme nature of these thunderstorms, no mechanism is currently in place to obtain adequate reports, measurements, or forecasts of accumulated hail depth. To better identify and forecast hail accumulations, the Colorado Hail Accumulation from Thunderstorms (CHAT) project was initiated in 2016 with the goals of collecting improved and more frequent hail depth reports on the ground as well as studying characteristics of storms that produce hail accumulations in Colorado. A desired outcome of this research is to identify predictors for hail-producing thunderstorms typically occurring along the Colorado Front Range that might be used as operational nowcast products in the future. During the 2016 convective season, we asked amateur meteorologists to send general information, photos, and videos on hail depth using social media. They submitted over 58 reports in Colorado with information on location, time, depth, and areal coverage of hail accumulations. We have analyzed dual-polarization radar and lightning mapping array data from 32 thunderstorms in Colorado, which produced between 0.5 and 50 cm of hail accumulation on the ground, to identify characteristics unique to storms with hail accumulations. This preliminary analysis shows how enhanced in-cloud hail presence and surface accumulation can be tracked throughout the lifetime of a thunderstorm using dual-polarization radar and lightning data, and how hail accumulation events are associated with large in-cloud ice water content, long hailfall duration, or a combination of these.
Abstract
In recent years, hail accumulations from thunderstorms have occurred frequently enough to catch the attention of the National Weather Service, the general public, and news agencies. Despite the extreme nature of these thunderstorms, no mechanism is currently in place to obtain adequate reports, measurements, or forecasts of accumulated hail depth. To better identify and forecast hail accumulations, the Colorado Hail Accumulation from Thunderstorms (CHAT) project was initiated in 2016 with the goals of collecting improved and more frequent hail depth reports on the ground as well as studying characteristics of storms that produce hail accumulations in Colorado. A desired outcome of this research is to identify predictors for hail-producing thunderstorms typically occurring along the Colorado Front Range that might be used as operational nowcast products in the future. During the 2016 convective season, we asked amateur meteorologists to send general information, photos, and videos on hail depth using social media. They submitted over 58 reports in Colorado with information on location, time, depth, and areal coverage of hail accumulations. We have analyzed dual-polarization radar and lightning mapping array data from 32 thunderstorms in Colorado, which produced between 0.5 and 50 cm of hail accumulation on the ground, to identify characteristics unique to storms with hail accumulations. This preliminary analysis shows how enhanced in-cloud hail presence and surface accumulation can be tracked throughout the lifetime of a thunderstorm using dual-polarization radar and lightning data, and how hail accumulation events are associated with large in-cloud ice water content, long hailfall duration, or a combination of these.
The objective of this research is to determine whether poorly sited long-term surface temperature monitoring sites have been adjusted in order to provide spatially representative independent data for use in regional and global surface temperature analyses. We present detailed analyses that demonstrate the lack of independence of the poorly sited data when they are adjusted using the homogenization procedures employed in past studies, as well as discuss the uncertainties associated with undocumented station moves. We use simulation and mathematics to determine the effect of trend on station adjustments and the associated effect of trend in the reference series on the trend of the adjusted station. We also compare data before and after adjustment to the reanalysis data, and we discuss the effect of land use changes on the uncertainty of measurement.
A major conclusion of our analysis is that there are large uncertainties associated with the surface temperature trends from the poorly sited stations. Moreover, rather than providing additional independent information, the use of the data from poorly sited stations provides a false sense of confidence in the robustness of the surface temperature trend assessments.
The objective of this research is to determine whether poorly sited long-term surface temperature monitoring sites have been adjusted in order to provide spatially representative independent data for use in regional and global surface temperature analyses. We present detailed analyses that demonstrate the lack of independence of the poorly sited data when they are adjusted using the homogenization procedures employed in past studies, as well as discuss the uncertainties associated with undocumented station moves. We use simulation and mathematics to determine the effect of trend on station adjustments and the associated effect of trend in the reference series on the trend of the adjusted station. We also compare data before and after adjustment to the reanalysis data, and we discuss the effect of land use changes on the uncertainty of measurement.
A major conclusion of our analysis is that there are large uncertainties associated with the surface temperature trends from the poorly sited stations. Moreover, rather than providing additional independent information, the use of the data from poorly sited stations provides a false sense of confidence in the robustness of the surface temperature trend assessments.
On the evening of 28 July 1997 the city of Fort Collins, Colorado, experienced a devastating flash flood that caused five fatalities and over 200 million dollars in damage. Maximum accumulations of rainfall in the western part of the city exceeded 10 in. in a 6-h period. This study presents a multiscale meteorological overview of the event utilizing a wide variety of instrument platforms and data including rain gauge, CSU–CHILL multiparameter radar, Next Generation Radar, National Lightning Detection Network, surface and Aircraft Communication Addressing and Reporting System observations, satellite observations, and synoptic analyses.
Many of the meteorological features associated with the Fort Collins flash flood typify those of similar events in the western United States. Prominent features in the Fort Collins case included the presence of a 500-hPa ridge axis over northeastern Colorado; a weak shortwave trough on the western side of the ridge; postfrontal easterly upslope flow at low levels; weak to moderate southwesterly flow aloft; a deep, moist warm layer in the sounding; and the occurrence of a quasi-stationary rainfall system. In contrast to previous events such as the Rapid City or Big Thompson floods, the thermodynamic environment of the Fort Collins storm exhibited only modest instability, consistent with low lightning flash rates and an absence of hail and other severe storm signatures.
Radar, rain gauge, and lightning observations provided a detailed view of the cloud and precipitation morphology. Polarimetric radar observations suggest that a coupling between warm-rain collision coalescence processes and ice processes played an important role in the rainfall production. Dual-Doppler radar and mesoscale wind analyses revealed that the low-level flow field associated with a bow echo located 60 km to the southeast of Fort Collins may have been responsible for a brief easterly acceleration in the low-level winds during the last 1.5 h of the event. The enhanced flow interacted with both topography and the convection located over Fort Collins, resulting in a quasi-stationary convective system and the heaviest rainfall of the evening.
On the evening of 28 July 1997 the city of Fort Collins, Colorado, experienced a devastating flash flood that caused five fatalities and over 200 million dollars in damage. Maximum accumulations of rainfall in the western part of the city exceeded 10 in. in a 6-h period. This study presents a multiscale meteorological overview of the event utilizing a wide variety of instrument platforms and data including rain gauge, CSU–CHILL multiparameter radar, Next Generation Radar, National Lightning Detection Network, surface and Aircraft Communication Addressing and Reporting System observations, satellite observations, and synoptic analyses.
Many of the meteorological features associated with the Fort Collins flash flood typify those of similar events in the western United States. Prominent features in the Fort Collins case included the presence of a 500-hPa ridge axis over northeastern Colorado; a weak shortwave trough on the western side of the ridge; postfrontal easterly upslope flow at low levels; weak to moderate southwesterly flow aloft; a deep, moist warm layer in the sounding; and the occurrence of a quasi-stationary rainfall system. In contrast to previous events such as the Rapid City or Big Thompson floods, the thermodynamic environment of the Fort Collins storm exhibited only modest instability, consistent with low lightning flash rates and an absence of hail and other severe storm signatures.
Radar, rain gauge, and lightning observations provided a detailed view of the cloud and precipitation morphology. Polarimetric radar observations suggest that a coupling between warm-rain collision coalescence processes and ice processes played an important role in the rainfall production. Dual-Doppler radar and mesoscale wind analyses revealed that the low-level flow field associated with a bow echo located 60 km to the southeast of Fort Collins may have been responsible for a brief easterly acceleration in the low-level winds during the last 1.5 h of the event. The enhanced flow interacted with both topography and the convection located over Fort Collins, resulting in a quasi-stationary convective system and the heaviest rainfall of the evening.
Abstract
Ice storms are important winter weather events that can have substantial environmental, economic, and social impacts. Mapping and assessment of damage after these events could be improved by making ice accretion measurements at a greater number of sites than is currently available. There is a need for low-cost collectors that can be distributed broadly in volunteer observation networks; however, use of low-cost collectors necessitates understanding of how collector characteristics and configurations influence measurements of ice accretion. A study was conducted at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in New Hampshire that involved spraying water over passive ice collectors during freezing conditions to simulate ice storms of different intensity. The collectors consisted of plates composed of four different materials and installed horizontally; two different types of wires strung horizontally; and rods of three different materials, with three different diameters, and installed at three different inclinations. Results showed that planar ice thickness on plates was 2.5–3 times as great as the radial ice thickness on rods or wires, which is consistent with expectations based on theory and empirical evidence from previous studies. Rods mounted on an angle rather than horizontally reduced the formation of icicles and enabled more consistent measurements. Results such as these provide much needed information for comparing ice accretion data. Understanding of relationships among collector configurations could be refined further by collecting data from natural ice storms under a broader range of weather conditions.
Abstract
Ice storms are important winter weather events that can have substantial environmental, economic, and social impacts. Mapping and assessment of damage after these events could be improved by making ice accretion measurements at a greater number of sites than is currently available. There is a need for low-cost collectors that can be distributed broadly in volunteer observation networks; however, use of low-cost collectors necessitates understanding of how collector characteristics and configurations influence measurements of ice accretion. A study was conducted at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in New Hampshire that involved spraying water over passive ice collectors during freezing conditions to simulate ice storms of different intensity. The collectors consisted of plates composed of four different materials and installed horizontally; two different types of wires strung horizontally; and rods of three different materials, with three different diameters, and installed at three different inclinations. Results showed that planar ice thickness on plates was 2.5–3 times as great as the radial ice thickness on rods or wires, which is consistent with expectations based on theory and empirical evidence from previous studies. Rods mounted on an angle rather than horizontally reduced the formation of icicles and enabled more consistent measurements. Results such as these provide much needed information for comparing ice accretion data. Understanding of relationships among collector configurations could be refined further by collecting data from natural ice storms under a broader range of weather conditions.
During May–July 2000, the Severe Thunderstorm Electrification and Precipitation Study (STEPS) occurred in the High Plains, near the Colorado–Kansas border. STEPS aimed to achieve a better understanding of the interactions between kinematics, precipitation, and electrification in severe thunderstorms. Specific scientific objectives included 1) understanding the apparent major differences in precipitation output from supercells that have led to them being classified as low precipitation (LP), classic or medium precipitation, and high precipitation; 2) understanding lightning formation and behavior in storms, and how lightning differs among storm types, particularly to better understand the mechanisms by which storms produce predominantly positive cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning; and 3) verifying and improving microphysical interpretations from polarimetric radar. The project involved the use of a multiple-Doppler polarimetric radar network, as well as a time-of-arrival very high frequency (VHF) lightning mapping system, an armored research aircraft, electric field meters carried on balloons, mobile mesonet vehicles, instruments to detect and classify transient luminous events (TLEs; e.g., sprites and blue jets) over thunderstorms, and mobile atmospheric sounding equipment. The project featured significant collaboration with the local National Weather Service office in Goodland, Kansas, as well as outreach to the general public. The project gathered data on a number of different cases, including LP storms, supercells, and mesoscale convective systems, among others. Many of the storms produced mostly positive CG lightning during significant portions of their lifetimes and also exhibited unusual electrical structures with opposite polarity to ordinary thunderstorms. The field data from STEPS is expected to bring new advances to understanding of supercells, positive CG lightning, TLEs, and precipitation formation in convective storms.
During May–July 2000, the Severe Thunderstorm Electrification and Precipitation Study (STEPS) occurred in the High Plains, near the Colorado–Kansas border. STEPS aimed to achieve a better understanding of the interactions between kinematics, precipitation, and electrification in severe thunderstorms. Specific scientific objectives included 1) understanding the apparent major differences in precipitation output from supercells that have led to them being classified as low precipitation (LP), classic or medium precipitation, and high precipitation; 2) understanding lightning formation and behavior in storms, and how lightning differs among storm types, particularly to better understand the mechanisms by which storms produce predominantly positive cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning; and 3) verifying and improving microphysical interpretations from polarimetric radar. The project involved the use of a multiple-Doppler polarimetric radar network, as well as a time-of-arrival very high frequency (VHF) lightning mapping system, an armored research aircraft, electric field meters carried on balloons, mobile mesonet vehicles, instruments to detect and classify transient luminous events (TLEs; e.g., sprites and blue jets) over thunderstorms, and mobile atmospheric sounding equipment. The project featured significant collaboration with the local National Weather Service office in Goodland, Kansas, as well as outreach to the general public. The project gathered data on a number of different cases, including LP storms, supercells, and mesoscale convective systems, among others. Many of the storms produced mostly positive CG lightning during significant portions of their lifetimes and also exhibited unusual electrical structures with opposite polarity to ordinary thunderstorms. The field data from STEPS is expected to bring new advances to understanding of supercells, positive CG lightning, TLEs, and precipitation formation in convective storms.
