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Julie M. Jones
,
Ryan L. Fogt
,
Martin Widmann
,
Gareth J. Marshall
,
Phil D. Jones
, and
Martin Visbeck

Abstract

Seasonal reconstructions of the Southern Hemisphere annular mode (SAM) index are derived to extend the record before the reanalysis period, using station sea level pressure (SLP) data as predictors. Two reconstructions using different predictands are obtained: one [Jones and Widmann (JW)] based on the first principal component (PC) of extratropical SLP and the other (Fogt) on the index of Marshall. A regional-based SAM index (Visbeck) is also considered.

These predictands agree well post-1979; correlations decline in all seasons except austral summer for the full series starting in 1958. Predictand agreement is strongest in spring and summer; hence agreement between the reconstructions is highest in these seasons. The less zonally symmetric SAM structure in winter and spring influences the strength of the SAM signal over land areas, hence the number of stations included in the reconstructions. Reconstructions from 1865 were, therefore, derived in summer and autumn and from 1905 in winter and spring.

This paper examines the skill of each reconstruction by comparison with observations and reanalysis data. Some of the individual peaks in the reconstructions, such as the most recent in austral summer, represent a full hemispheric SAM pattern, while others are caused by regional SLP anomalies over the locations of the predictors. The JW and Fogt reconstructions are of similar quality in summer and autumn, while in winter and spring the Marshall index is better reconstructed by Fogt than the PC index is by JW. In spring and autumn the SAM shows considerable variability prior to recent decades.

Full access
Ryan L. Fogt
,
Judith Perlwitz
,
Andrew J. Monaghan
,
David H. Bromwich
,
Julie M. Jones
, and
Gareth J. Marshall

Abstract

This second paper examines the Southern Hemisphere annular mode (SAM) variability from reconstructions, observed indices, and simulations from 17 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) models from 1865 to 2005. Comparisons reveal the models do not fully simulate the duration of strong natural variability within the reconstructions during the 1930s and 1960s.

Seasonal indices are examined to understand the relative roles of forced and natural fluctuations. The models capture the recent (1957–2005) positive SAM trends in austral summer, which reconstructions indicate is the strongest trend during the last 150 yr; ozone depletion is the dominant mechanism driving these trends. In autumn, negative trends after 1930 in the reconstructions are stronger than the recent positive trend. Furthermore, model trends in autumn during 1957–2005 are the most different from observations. Both of these conditions suggest the recent autumn trend is most likely natural climate variability, with external forcing playing a secondary role. Many models also produce significant spring trends during this period not seen in observations. Although insignificant, these differences arise because of vastly different spatial structures in the Southern Hemisphere pressure trends. As the trend differences between models and observations in austral spring have been increasing over the last 30 yr, care must be exercised when examining the future SAM projections and their impacts in this season.

Full access
Kyle R. Clem
,
Marilyn N. Raphael
,
Susheel Adusumilli
,
Rebecca Baiman
,
Alison F. Banwell
,
Sandra Barreira
,
Rebecca L. Beadling
,
Steve Colwell
,
Lawrence Coy
,
Rajashree T. Datta
,
Jos De Laat
,
Devon Dunmire
,
Ryan L. Fogt
,
Natalie M. Freeman
,
Helen Amanda Fricker
,
Alex S. Gardner
,
Bryan Johnson
,
Linda M. Keller
,
Natalya A. Kramarova
,
Matthew A. Lazzara
,
Jan L. Lieser
,
Michael MacFerrin
,
Graeme A. MacGilchrist
,
Michelle L. MacLennan
,
Robert A. Massom
,
Matthew R. Mazloff
,
Thomas L. Mote
,
Eric R. Nash
,
Paul A. Newman
,
Taylor Norton
,
Irina Petropavlovskikh
,
Michael Pitts
,
Phillip Reid
,
Michelle L. Santee
,
Ted A. Scambos
,
Jia-Rui Shi
,
Sharon Stammerjohn
,
Susan E. Strahan
,
Andrew F. Thompson
,
Jonathan D. Wille
, and
Earle Wilson
Free access
E. Povl Abrahamsen
,
Sandra Barreira
,
Cecilia M. Bitz
,
Amy Butler
,
Kyle R. Clem
,
Steve Colwell
,
Lawrence Coy
,
Jos de Laat
,
Marcel D. du Plessis
,
Ryan L. Fogt
,
Helen Amanda Fricker
,
John Fyfe
,
Alex S. Gardner
,
Sarah T. Gille
,
Tessa Gorte
,
L. Gregor
,
Will Hobbs
,
Bryan Johnson
,
Eric Keenan
,
Linda M. Keller
,
Natalya A. Kramarova
,
Matthew A. Lazzara
,
Jan T. M. Lenaerts
,
Jan L. Lieser
,
Hongxing Liu
,
Craig S. Long
,
Michelle Maclennan
,
Robert A. Massom
,
François Massonnet
,
Matthew R. Mazloff
,
David Mikolajczyk
,
A. Narayanan
,
Eric R. Nash
,
Paul A. Newman
,
Irina Petropavlovskikh
,
Michael Pitts
,
Bastien Y. Queste
,
Phillip Reid
,
F. Roquet
,
Michelle L. Santee
,
Susan Strahan
,
Sebastiann Swart
, and
Lei Wang
Free access
Sharon Stammerjohn
,
Ted A. Scambos
,
Susheel Adusumilli
,
Sandra Barreira
,
Germar H. Bernhard
,
Deniz Bozkurt
,
Seth M. Bushinsky
,
Kyle R. Clem
,
Steve Colwell
,
Lawrence Coy
,
Jos De Laat
,
Marcel D. du Plessis
,
Ryan L. Fogt
,
Annie Foppert
,
Helen Amanda Fricker
,
Alex S. Gardner
,
Sarah T. Gille
,
Tessa Gorte
,
Bryan Johnson
,
Eric Keenan
,
Daemon Kennett
,
Linda M. Keller
,
Natalya A. Kramarova
,
Kaisa Lakkala
,
Matthew A. Lazzara
,
Jan T. M. Lenaerts
,
Jan L. Lieser
,
Zhi Li
,
Hongxing Liu
,
Craig S. Long
,
Michael MacFerrin
,
Michelle L. Maclennan
,
Robert A. Massom
,
David Mikolajczyk
,
Lynn Montgomery
,
Thomas L. Mote
,
Eric R. Nash
,
Paul A. Newman
,
Irina Petropavlovskikh
,
Michael Pitts
,
Phillip Reid
,
Steven R. Rintoul
,
Michelle L. Santee
,
Elizabeth H. Shadwick
,
Alessandro Silvano
,
Scott Stierle
,
Susan Strahan
,
Adrienne J. Sutton
,
Sebastiaan Swart
,
Veronica Tamsitt
,
Bronte Tilbrook
,
Lei Wang
,
Nancy L. Williams
, and
Xiaojun Yuan
Free access
Kyle R. Clem
,
Susheel Adusumilli
,
Rebecca Baiman
,
Alison F. Banwell
,
Sandra Barreira
,
Rebecca L. Beadling
,
Deniz Bozkurt
,
Steve Colwell
,
Lawrence Coy
,
Rajashree T. Datta
,
Jos De Laat
,
Marcel du Plessis
,
Devon Dunmire
,
Ryan L. Fogt
,
Natalie M. Freeman
,
Helen A. Fricker
,
Alex S. Gardner
,
Sarah T. Gille
,
Bryan Johnson
,
Simon A. Josey
,
Linda M. Keller
,
Natalya A. Kramarova
,
Matthew A. Lazzara
,
Jan L. Lieser
,
Michael MacFerrin
,
Graeme A. MacGilchrist
,
Michelle L. MacLennan
,
Robert A. Massom
,
Matthew R. Mazloff
,
David E. Mikolajczyk
,
Thomas L. Mote
,
Eric R. Nash
,
Paul A. Newman
,
Taylor Norton
,
Naomi Ochwat
,
Irina Petropavlovskikh
,
Luciano P. Pezzi
,
Michael Pitts
,
Marilyn N. Raphael
,
Phillip Reid
,
Michelle L. Santee
,
Marcelo Santini
,
Theodore Scambos
,
Cristina Schultz
,
Jia-Rui Shi
,
Everaldo Souza
,
Sharon Stammerjohn
,
Susan E. Strahan
,
Andrew F. Thompson
,
Luke D. Trusel
,
Jonathan D. Wille
,
Ziqi Yin
,
Jessicca Allen
,
Amy V. Camper
,
Bridgette O. Haley
,
Gregory Hammer
,
S. Elizabeth Love-Brotak
,
Laura Ohlmann
,
Lukas Noguchi
,
Deborah B. Riddle
, and
Sara W. Veasey
Open access
K. R. Clem
,
M. N. Raphael
,
Susheel Adusumilli
,
Charles Amory
,
Rebecca Baiman
,
Alison F. Banwell
,
Sandra Barreira
,
Rebecca L. Beadling
,
Deniz Bozkurt
,
Steve Colwell
,
Lawrence Coy
,
Rajashree T. Datta
,
Pranab Deb
,
Jos De Laat
,
Marcel du Plessis
,
Denise Fernandez
,
Ryan L. Fogt
,
Helen A. Fricker
,
Sarah T. Gille
,
Bryan Johnson
,
Simon A. Josey
,
Linda M. Keller
,
Natalya A. Kramarova
,
Jessica Kromer
,
Leslie, R. Lait
,
Matthew A. Lazzara
,
Jan L. Lieser
,
Michael MacFerrin
,
Graeme M. MacGilchrist
,
Michelle L. MacLennan
,
Andreas Marouchos
,
Robert A. Massom
,
Clive R. McMahon
,
David E. Mikolajczyk
,
Thomas L. Mote
,
Paul A. Newman
,
Taylor Norton
,
Irina Petropavlovskikh
,
Luciano P. Pezzi
,
Michael Pitts
,
Phillip Reid
,
Michelle L. Santee
,
Theodore A. Scambos
,
Cristina Schulz
,
Jia-Rui Shi
,
Everaldo Souza
,
Sharon Stammerjohn
,
Sandy Thomalla
,
Sarat Chandra Tripathy
,
Luke D. Trusel
,
Katherine Turner
, and
Ziqi Yin
Open access
T. Boyer
,
J. Blunden
,
R. J. H. Dunn
,
Melanie Ades
,
Robert Adler
,
Susheel Adusumilli
,
W. Agyakwah
,
Somayeh Ahmadpour
,
Laura S. Aldeco
,
Michael A. Alexander
,
Mihai Alexe
,
Eric J. Alfaro
,
Richard P. Allan
,
Adam Allgood
,
Lincoln M. Alves
,
Jorge A. Amador
,
Dillon J. Amaya
,
Charles Amory
,
John Anderson
,
B. Andrade
,
Liss Marie Andreassen
,
Orlane Anneville
,
Yasuyuki Aono
,
Anthony Arguez
,
Dolores Armenteras Pascual
,
Carlo Arosio
,
Elizabeth Asher
,
John A. Augustine
,
Grinia Avalos
,
Cesar Azorin-Molina
,
Oscar M. Baez-Villanueva
,
Rebecca Baiman
,
Thomas J. Ballinger
,
Alison F. Banwell
,
M. Yu. Bardin
,
J. Barichivich
,
Sandra Barreira
,
Rebecca L. Beadling
,
Marc Beauchemin
,
Hylke E. Beck
,
Emily J. Becker
,
Brian Beckley
,
E. Bekele
,
Nicolas Bellouin
,
Angela Benedetti
,
Christine Berne
,
Logan T. Berner
,
Germar H. Bernhard
,
Uma S. Bhatt
,
Siiri Bigalke
,
Peter Bissolli
,
Jarle W. Bjerke
,
Eric S. Blake
,
Josh Blannin
,
Stephen Blenkinsop
,
Oliver Bochníček
,
Olivier Bock
,
Xavier Bodin
,
Olivier Bonte
,
Michael G. Bosilovich
,
Olivier Boucher
,
Jason E. Box
,
Deniz Bozkurt
,
Brian Brettschneider
,
Francis G. Bringas
,
Mike Brubaker
,
Stefan A. Buehler
,
Brandon Bukunt
,
David Burgess
,
Amy H. Butler
,
Michael P. Byrne
,
Blanca Calderón
,
Suzana J. Camargo
,
Jayaka Campbell
,
Diego Campos
,
Fabrizio Cappucci
,
Laura Carrea
,
Brendan R. Carter
,
Randall Cerveny
,
Ivona Cetinić
,
Don P. Chambers
,
Duo Chan
,
Elise Chandler
,
Kai-Lan Chang
,
Candice S. Charlton
,
Jack Chen
,
Lin Chen
,
Lijing Cheng
,
Vincent Y. S. Cheng
,
Lucy Chisholm
,
Hanne H. Christiansen
,
John R. Christy
,
Eui-Seok Chung
,
Laura M. Ciasto
,
Leonardo Clarke
,
Kyle R. Clem
,
Scott Clingan
,
Caio A.S. Coelho
,
Melanie Coldewey-Egbers
,
Steve Colwell
,
Owen R. Cooper
,
Richard C. Cornes
,
Kris Correa
,
Felipe Costa
,
Curt Covey
,
Lawrence Coy
,
Jean-Francois Crétaux
,
Theresa Crimmins
,
Molly Crotwell
,
Joshua Culpepper
,
Ana P. Cunha
,
Diego Cusicanqui
,
Rajashree T. Datta
,
Sean Davis
,
Richard A. M. de Jeu
,
Jos De Laat
,
Pranab Deb
,
Bertrand Decharme
,
Doug Degenstein
,
Reynald Delaloye
,
Chris Derksen
,
Howard J. Diamond
,
Elizabeth DiGangi
,
S. Dindyal
,
Dmitry Divine
,
Martin T. Dokulil
,
Markus G. Donat
,
Shenfu Dong
,
Wouter A. Dorigo
,
Caroline Drost Jensen
,
Matthew L. Druckenmiller
,
Marcel du Plessis
,
Diane Duchemin
,
Hilary Dugan
,
Dashkhuu Dulamsuren
,
Imke Durre
,
Geoff Dutton
,
Gregory Duveiller
,
Craig Earl-Spurr
,
Paola Echeverría Garcés
,
Mithat Ekici
,
Alesksandra Elias Chereque
,
Shane Elipot
,
M. ElKharrim
,
Howard E. Epstein
,
Jhan-Carlo Espinoza
,
Thomas W. Estilow
,
Nicole Estrella
,
Sinead Farrell
,
Nicolas Fauchereau
,
Robert S. Fausto
,
Richard A. Feely
,
Chris Fenimore
,
David Fereday
,
Denise Fernandez
,
Xavier Fettweis
,
Vitali E. Fioletov
,
Johannes Flemming
,
Caitlyn Florentine
,
Chris Fogarty
,
Ryan L. Fogt
,
Bruce C. Forbes
,
Michael J. Foster
,
Bryan A. Franz
,
Thomas Frederikse
,
Helen A. Fricker
,
Stacey M. Frith
,
Lucien Froidevaux
,
Gerald V. (JJ) Frost
,
Shanshan Fu
,
Yao Fu
,
Martin Füllekrug
,
Catherine Ganter
,
Meng Gao
,
Judith Garforth
,
Jay Garg
,
Sebastian Gerland
,
Artur Gevorgyan
,
Donata Giglio
,
Sarah T. Gille
,
John Gilson
,
Karin Gleason
,
Nadine Gobron
,
Sophie Godin-Beekmann
,
Marlos Goes
,
Stanley B. Goldenberg
,
Julio Gómez Camacho
,
Yolanda González Hernández
,
Steven Goodman
,
Atsushi Goto
,
Garrett Graham
,
Alice Grimm
,
Jens-Uwe Grooß
,
Alexander Gruber
,
Guojun Gu
,
Mauro Guglielmin
,
Sebastian Hahn
,
Leopold Haimberger
,
S. Hakmi
,
Brad D. Hall
,
Benjamin D. Hamlington
,
Edward Hanna
,
Inger Hanssen-Bauer
,
Merritt E. Harlan
,
Daniel S. Harnos
,
I. Harris
,
Qiong He
,
Máret J. Heatta
,
Richard R. Jr. Heim
,
Deborah L. Hemming
,
Stefan Hendricks
,
J. Hicks
,
Hugo G. Hidalgo
,
Martin Hirschi
,
Shu-peng (Ben) Ho
,
Will Hobbs
,
Robert Holzworth
,
Radley M. Horton
,
Filip Hrbáček
,
Guojie Hu
,
Zeng-Zhen Hu
,
Boyin Huang
,
Hongjie Huang
,
Dale Hurst
,
Iolanda Ialongo
,
Antje Inness
,
Ketil Isaksen
,
Masayoshi Ishii
,
Michael G. Jacox
,
Gerardo Jadra
,
Piyush Jain
,
Annika Jersild
,
Jelmer Jeuring
,
Svetlana Jevrejeva
,
Gensuo Jia
,
Viju O. John
,
William E. Johns
,
Bjørn Johnsen
,
Bryan Johnson
,
Gregory C. Johnson
,
P. D. Jones
,
Simon A. Josey
,
G. Jumaux
,
Robert Junod
,
Andreas Kääb
,
K. Kabidi
,
Johannes W. Kaiser
,
Lars Kaleschke
,
Viktor Kaufmann
,
Amin Fazl Kazemi
,
Linda M. Keller
,
Andreas Kellerer-Pirklbauer
,
Michael Kendon
,
John Kennedy
,
Yelena Khalatyan
,
Valentina Khan
,
Sergey Khaykin
,
Mai Van Khiem
,
Richard Kidd
,
Rachel E. Killick
,
Seong-Joong Kim
,
Tyler V. King
,
Zak Kipling
,
Megan Kirchmeier-Young
,
Philip J. Klotzbach
,
John A. Knaff
,
Jack Kohler
,
Akash Koppa
,
Natalia N. Korshunova
,
Benjamin M. Kraemer
,
Natalya A. Kramarova
,
Jessica Kromer
,
A. C. Kruger
,
Arun Kumar
,
Mikael Kuusela
,
R. Sofia La Fuente
,
Alo Laas
,
Zachary Labe
,
Rick Lader
,
Leslie Lait
,
Mónika Lakatos
,
Kaisa Lakkala
,
Hoang Phuc Lam
,
Xin Lan
,
Peter Landschützer
,
Chris W. Landsea
,
Kathleen O. Lantz
,
Jeff Lapierre
,
Mark J. Lara
,
Waldo Lavado-Casimiro
,
David A. Lavers
,
Matthew A. Lazzara
,
Thierry Leblanc
,
Simon H. Lee
,
Tsz-Cheung Lee
,
Eric Leibensperger
,
Chris Lennard
,
Eric Leuliette
,
Michelle L’Heureux
,
Jan L. Lieser
,
Ben Liley
,
I-I Lin
,
Chao Liu
,
Yakun Liu
,
Y. T. Eunice Lo
,
Ricardo Locarnini
,
Norman G. Loeb
,
Bryant D. Loomis
,
Hosmay Lopez
,
Andrew M. Lorrey
,
Diego Loyola
,
Susan M. Lozier
,
Rui Lu
,
Bartłomiej Luks
,
Rick Lumpkin
,
Jing-Jia Luo
,
Kari Luojus
,
John M. Lyman
,
Matthew J. Macander
,
Michael MacFerrin
,
Graeme M. MacGilchrist
,
Michelle L. MacLennan
,
Andrew D. Magee
,
Florence Magnin
,
Rúna Í. Magnússon
,
Jostein Mamen
,
Ken D. Mankoff
,
Gloria Manney
,
Jose A. Marengo
,
Mohammadi Marjan
,
Andreas Marouchos
,
Rodney Martinez
,
Robert A. Massom
,
Shin-Ichiro Matsuzaki
,
Tom Matthews
,
Michael Mayer
,
C. McBride
,
Michael McCarthy
,
Clive R. McMahon
,
Tim R. McVicar
,
Carl A. Mears
,
Brooke Medley
,
Walter N. Meier
,
Ademe Mekonnen
,
Annette Menzel
,
Christopher J. Merchant
,
Leo-Juhani Merio
,
Mark A. Merrifield
,
Michael F. Meyer
,
Tristan Meyers
,
David E. Mikolajczyk
,
John B. Miller
,
Caitlin Minney
,
Diego G. Miralles
,
Alexey Mishonov
,
Gary T. Mitchum
,
Ben I. Moat
,
Aurel Moise
,
Jorge Molina-Carpio
,
Paul M. Montesano
,
Stephan A. Montzka
,
Ronald Moody
,
Twila A. Moon
,
Natali Mora
,
Colin Morice
,
Isamu Morino
,
A. E. Mostafa
,
Thomas L. Mote
,
Ivan Mrekaj
,
Lawrence Mudryk
,
Robi Muharsyah
,
Jens Mühle
,
Rolf Müller
,
D. Nance
,
Christopher S. R. Neigh
,
R. Steven Nerem
,
Paul A. Newman
,
Julien P. Nicolas
,
Jeannette Noetzli
,
Ben Noll
,
Taylor Norton
,
Kelsey E. Nyland
,
John O’Keefe
,
Mitsuho Oe
,
Yuka Okunaka
,
Alexander Orlik
,
Tim J. Osborn
,
James E. Overland
,
Finnur Pálsson
,
Mark Parrington
,
Richard J. Pasch
,
Reynaldo Pascual Ramírez
,
Linda Paterson
,
Cécile Pellet
,
Mauri S. Pelto
,
Renellys C. Perez
,
Donald K. Perovich
,
Kyle Petersen
,
Irina Petropavlovskikh
,
Alek Petty
,
Alexandre B. Pezza
,
Luciano P. Pezzi
,
Coda Phillips
,
Gareth K. Phoenix
,
Don Pierson
,
Izidine Pinto
,
Ivenis Pita
,
Michael Pitts
,
Stephen Po-Chedley
,
Paolo Pogliotti
,
Kristin Poinar
,
Lorenzo Polvani
,
Amos Porat
,
Wolfgang Preimesberger
,
Colin Price
,
Sarah G. Purkey
,
Willy R. Quispe
,
Andrea M. Ramos
,
William J. Randel
,
Marilyn N. Raphael
,
Colin Raymond
,
James Reagan
,
Phillip Reid
,
Samuel Rémy
,
Hans Ressl
,
Lucrezia Ricciardulli
,
Andrew D. Richardson
,
Robert Ricker
,
Patricia P. Rivera
,
David A. Robinson
,
M. Robjhon
,
Matthew Rodell
,
Esteban Rodriguez Guisado
,
Nemesio Rodriguez-Fernandez
,
Maarit Roebeling
,
Cassandra Rogers
,
P. Rohini
,
Vladimir E. Romanovsky
,
Josyane Ronchail
,
Matthew Rosencrans
,
Karen Rosenlof
,
Benjamin Rösner
,
Alexei Rozanov
,
Jozef Rozkošný
,
Olga O. Rusanovskaya
,
This Rutishauser
,
C. T. Sabeerali
,
Ryan Said
,
Tetsu Sakai
,
Roberto Salinas
,
Ahira Sánchez-Lugo
,
Michelle L. Santee
,
Louis Sass
,
Kanako Sato
,
Parnchai Sawaengphokhai
,
A. Sayouri
,
Theodore A. Scambos
,
Johan H. Scheller
,
Verena Schenzinger
,
Robert W. Schlegel
,
Claudia Schmid
,
Martin Schmid
,
Carl J. Schreck
,
Cristina Schulz
,
Z. T. Segele
,
Sonia I. Seneviratne
,
Serhat Sensoy
,
Ji-In Seong
,
Julieta Serna Cuenca
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Mark C. Serreze
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Fumi Sezaki
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Xi Shao
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Sapna Sharma
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Jia-Rui Shi
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Jr.Paul W. Stackhouse
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Abstract

—J. Blunden and T. Boyer

In 2023, La Niña conditions that generally prevailed in the eastern Pacific Ocean from mid-2020 into early 2023 gave way to a strong El Niño by October. Atmospheric concentrations of Earth’s major greenhouse gases—carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide—all increased to record-high levels. The annual global average carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere rose to 419.3±0.1 ppm, which is 50% greater than the pre-industrial level. The growth from 2022 to 2023 was 2.8 ppm, the fourth highest in the record since the 1960s.

The combined short-term effects of El Niño and the long-term effects of increasing levels of heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere contributed to new records for many essential climate variables reported here. The annual global temperature across land and oceans was the highest in records dating as far back as 1850, with the last seven months (June–December) having each been record warm. Over land, the globally averaged temperature was also record high. Dozens of countries reported record or near-record warmth for the year, including China and continental Europe as a whole (warmest on record), India and Russia (second warmest), and Canada (third warmest). Intense and widespread heatwaves were reported around the world. In Vietnam, an all-time national maximum temperature record of 44.2°C was observed at Tuong Duong on 7 May, surpassing the previous record of 43.4°C at Huong Khe on 20 April 2019. In Brazil, the air temperature reached 44.8°C in Araçuaí in Minas Gerais on 20 November, potentially a new national record and 12.8°C above normal.

The effect of rising temperatures was apparent in the cryosphere, where snow cover extent by June 2023 was the smallest in the 56-year record for North America and seventh smallest for the Northern Hemisphere overall. Heatwaves contributed to the greatest average mass balance loss for Alpine glaciers around the world since the start of the record in 1970. Due to rapid volume loss beginning in 2021, St. Anna Glacier in Switzerland and Ice Worm Glacier in the United States disappeared completely. In August, as a direct result of glacial thinning over the past 20 years, a glacial lake on a tributary of the Mendenhall Glacier in Alaska burst through its ice dam and caused unprecedented flooding on Mendenhall River near Juneau.

Across the Arctic, the annual surface air temperature was the fourth highest in the 124-year record, and summer (July–September) was record warm. Smaller-than-normal snow cover extent in May and June contributed to the third-highest average peak tundra greenness in the 24-year record. In September, Arctic minimum sea ice extent was the fifth smallest in the 45-year satellite record. The 17 lowest September extents have all occurred in the last 17 years.

In Antarctica, temperatures for much of the year were up to 6°C above average over the Weddell Sea and along coastal Dronning Maud Land. The Antarctic Peninsula also experienced well-above-average temperatures during the 2022/23 melt season, which contributed to its fourth consecutive summer of above-average surface melt. On 21 February, Antarctic sea ice extent and sea ice area both reached all-time lows, surpassing records set just a year earlier. Over the course of the year, new daily record-low sea ice extents were set on 278 days. In some instances, these daily records were set by a large margin, for example, the extent on 6 July was 1.8 million km2 lower than the previous record low for that day.

Across the global oceans, the annual sea surface temperature was the highest in the 170-year record, far surpassing the previous record of 2016 by 0.13°C. Daily and monthly records were set from March onward, including an historic-high daily global mean sea surface temperature of 18.99°C recorded on 22 August. Approximately 94% of the ocean surface experienced at least one marine heatwave in 2023, while 27% experienced at least one cold spell. Globally averaged ocean heat content from the surface to 2000-m depth was record high in 2023, increasing at a rate equivalent to ∼0.7 Watts per square meter of energy applied over Earth’s surface. Global mean sea level was also record high for the 12th consecutive year, reaching 101.4 mm above the 1993 average when satellite measurements began, an increase of 8.1±1.5 mm over 2022 and the third highest year-over-year increase in the record.

A total of 82 named tropical storms were observed during the Northern and Southern Hemispheres’ storm seasons, below the 1991–2020 average of 87. Hurricane Otis became the strongest landfalling hurricane on record for the west coast of Mexico at 140 kt (72 m s−1), causing at least 52 fatalities and $12–16 billion U.S. dollars in damage. Freddy became the world’s longest-lived tropical cyclones on record, developing into a tropical cyclone on 6 February and finally dissipating on 12 March. Freddy crossed the full width of the Indian Ocean and made one landfall in Madagascar and two in Mozambique. In the Mediterranean Sea—outside of traditional tropical cyclone basins—heavy rains and flooding from Storm Daniel killed more than 4300 people and left more than 8000 missing in Libya.

The record-warm temperatures in 2023 created conditions that helped intensify the hydrological cycle. Measurements of total-column water vapor in the atmosphere were the highest on record, while the fraction of cloud area in the sky was the lowest since records began in 1980. The annual global mean precipitation total over land surfaces for 2023 was among the lowest since 1979, but global one-day maximum totals were close to average, indicating an increase in rainfall intensity.

In July, record-high areas of land across the globe (7.9%) experienced extreme drought, breaking the previous record of 6.2% in July 2022. Overall, 29.7% of land experienced moderate or worse categories of drought during the year, also a record. Mexico reported its driest (and hottest) year since the start of its record in 1950. In alignment with hot and prolonged dry conditions, Canada experienced its worst national wildfire season on record. Approximately 15 million hectares burned across the country, which was more than double the previous record from 1989. Smoke from the fires were transported far into the United States and even to western European countries. August to October 2023 was the driest three-month period in Australia in the 104-year record. Millions of hectares of bushfires burned for weeks in the Northern Territory. In South America, extreme drought developed in the latter half of the year through the Amazon basin. By the end of October, the Rio Negro at Manaus, a major tributary of the Amazon River, fell to its lowest water level since records began in 1902.

The transition from La Niña to El Niño helped bring relief to the prolonged drought conditions in equatorial eastern Africa. However, El Niño along with positive Indian Ocean dipole conditions also contributed to excessive rainfall that resulted in devastating floods over southeastern Ethiopia, Somalia, and Kenya during October to December that displaced around 1.5 million people. On 5 September, the town of Zagora, Greece, broke a national record for highest daily rainfall (754 mm in 21 hours, after which the station ceased reporting) due to Storm Daniel; this one-day accumulation was close to Zagora’s normal annual total.

Open access
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Andrew F. Thompson
,
Philip R. Thompson
,
Xiangshan Tian-Kunze
,
Mary-Louise Timmermans
,
Maxim A. Timofeyev
,
Skie Tobin
,
Hans Tømmervik
,
Kleareti Tourpali
,
Lidia Trescilo
,
Mikhail Tretiakov
,
Blair C. Trewin
,
Joaquin A. Triñanes
,
Adrian Trotman
,
Ryan E. Truchelut
,
Luke D. Trusel
,
Mari R. Tye
,
Ronald van der A
,
Robin van der Schalie
,
Gerard van der Schrier
,
Cedric J. Van Meerbeeck
,
Arnold J.H. van vliet
,
Ahad Vazife
,
Piet Verburg
,
Jean-Paul Vernier
,
Isaac J. Vimont
,
Katrina Virts
,
Sebastián Vivero
,
Denis L. Volkov
,
Holger Vömel
,
Russell S. Vose
,
(Skip)
,
John E. Walsh
,
Bin Wang
,
Hui Wang
,
Muyin Wang
,
Ray H. J. Wang
,
Xinyue Wang
,
Rik Wanninkhof
,
Taran Warnock
,
Mark Weber
,
Melinda Webster
,
Adrian Wehrlé
,
Caihong Wen
,
Toby K. Westberry
,
Matthew J. Widlansky
,
David N. Wiese
,
Jeannette D. Wild
,
Jonathan D. Wille
,
An Willems
,
Kate M. Willett
,
Earle Williams
,
J. Willis
,
Takmeng Wong
,
Kimberly M. Wood
,
Richard Iestyn Woolway
,
Ping-Ping Xie
,
Dedi Yang
,
Xungang Yin
,
Ziqi Yin
,
Zhenzhong Zeng
,
Huai-min Zhang
,
Li Zhang
,
Peiqun Zhang
,
Lin Zhao
,
Xinjia Zhou
,
Zhiwei Zhu
,
Jerry R. Ziemke
,
Markus Ziese
,
Scott Zolkos
,
Ruxandra M. Zotta
,
Cheng-Zhi Zou
,
Jessicca Allen
,
Amy V. Camper
,
Bridgette O. Haley
,
Gregory Hammer
,
S. Elizabeth Love-Brotak
,
Laura Ohlmann
,
Lukas Noguchi
,
Deborah B. Riddle
, and
Sara W. Veasey

Abstract

—J. BLUNDEN, T. BOYER, AND E. BARTOW-GILLIES

Earth’s global climate system is vast, complex, and intricately interrelated. Many areas are influenced by global-scale phenomena, including the “triple dip” La Niña conditions that prevailed in the eastern Pacific Ocean nearly continuously from mid-2020 through all of 2022; by regional phenomena such as the positive winter and summer North Atlantic Oscillation that impacted weather in parts the Northern Hemisphere and the negative Indian Ocean dipole that impacted weather in parts of the Southern Hemisphere; and by more localized systems such as high-pressure heat domes that caused extreme heat in different areas of the world. Underlying all these natural short-term variabilities are long-term climate trends due to continuous increases since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution in the atmospheric concentrations of Earth’s major greenhouse gases.

In 2022, the annual global average carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere rose to 417.1±0.1 ppm, which is 50% greater than the pre-industrial level. Global mean tropospheric methane abundance was 165% higher than its pre-industrial level, and nitrous oxide was 24% higher. All three gases set new record-high atmospheric concentration levels in 2022.

Sea-surface temperature patterns in the tropical Pacific characteristic of La Niña and attendant atmospheric patterns tend to mitigate atmospheric heat gain at the global scale, but the annual global surface temperature across land and oceans was still among the six highest in records dating as far back as the mid-1800s. It was the warmest La Niña year on record. Many areas observed record or near-record heat. Europe as a whole observed its second-warmest year on record, with sixteen individual countries observing record warmth at the national scale. Records were shattered across the continent during the summer months as heatwaves plagued the region. On 18 July, 104 stations in France broke their all-time records. One day later, England recorded a temperature of 40°C for the first time ever. China experienced its second-warmest year and warmest summer on record. In the Southern Hemisphere, the average temperature across New Zealand reached a record high for the second year in a row. While Australia’s annual temperature was slightly below the 1991–2020 average, Onslow Airport in Western Australia reached 50.7°C on 13 January, equaling Australia's highest temperature on record.

While fewer in number and locations than record-high temperatures, record cold was also observed during the year. Southern Africa had its coldest August on record, with minimum temperatures as much as 5°C below normal over Angola, western Zambia, and northern Namibia. Cold outbreaks in the first half of December led to many record-low daily minimum temperature records in eastern Australia.

The effects of rising temperatures and extreme heat were apparent across the Northern Hemisphere, where snow-cover extent by June 2022 was the third smallest in the 56-year record, and the seasonal duration of lake ice cover was the fourth shortest since 1980. More frequent and intense heatwaves contributed to the second-greatest average mass balance loss for Alpine glaciers around the world since the start of the record in 1970. Glaciers in the Swiss Alps lost a record 6% of their volume. In South America, the combination of drought and heat left many central Andean glaciers snow free by mid-summer in early 2022; glacial ice has a much lower albedo than snow, leading to accelerated heating of the glacier. Across the global cryosphere, permafrost temperatures continued to reach record highs at many high-latitude and mountain locations.

In the high northern latitudes, the annual surface-air temperature across the Arctic was the fifth highest in the 123-year record. The seasonal Arctic minimum sea-ice extent, typically reached in September, was the 11th-smallest in the 43-year record; however, the amount of multiyear ice—ice that survives at least one summer melt season—remaining in the Arctic continued to decline. Since 2012, the Arctic has been nearly devoid of ice more than four years old.

In Antarctica, an unusually large amount of snow and ice fell over the continent in 2022 due to several landfalling atmospheric rivers, which contributed to the highest annual surface mass balance, 15% to 16% above the 1991–2020 normal, since the start of two reanalyses records dating to 1980. It was the second-warmest year on record for all five of the long-term staffed weather stations on the Antarctic Peninsula. In East Antarctica, a heatwave event led to a new all-time record-high temperature of −9.4°C—44°C above the March average—on 18 March at Dome C. This was followed by the collapse of the critically unstable Conger Ice Shelf. More than 100 daily low sea-ice extent and sea-ice area records were set in 2022, including two new all-time annual record lows in net sea-ice extent and area in February.

Across the world’s oceans, global mean sea level was record high for the 11th consecutive year, reaching 101.2 mm above the 1993 average when satellite altimetry measurements began, an increase of 3.3±0.7 over 2021. Globally-averaged ocean heat content was also record high in 2022, while the global sea-surface temperature was the sixth highest on record, equal with 2018. Approximately 58% of the ocean surface experienced at least one marine heatwave in 2022. In the Bay of Plenty, New Zealand’s longest continuous marine heatwave was recorded.

A total of 85 named tropical storms were observed during the Northern and Southern Hemisphere storm seasons, close to the 1991–2020 average of 87. There were three Category 5 tropical cyclones across the globe—two in the western North Pacific and one in the North Atlantic. This was the fewest Category 5 storms globally since 2017. Globally, the accumulated cyclone energy was the lowest since reliable records began in 1981. Regardless, some storms caused massive damage. In the North Atlantic, Hurricane Fiona became the most intense and most destructive tropical or post-tropical cyclone in Atlantic Canada’s history, while major Hurricane Ian killed more than 100 people and became the third costliest disaster in the United States, causing damage estimated at $113 billion U.S. dollars. In the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Batsirai dropped 2044 mm of rain at Commerson Crater in Réunion. The storm also impacted Madagascar, where 121 fatalities were reported.

As is typical, some areas around the world were notably dry in 2022 and some were notably wet. In August, record high areas of land across the globe (6.2%) were experiencing extreme drought. Overall, 29% of land experienced moderate or worse categories of drought during the year. The largest drought footprint in the contiguous United States since 2012 (63%) was observed in late October. The record-breaking megadrought of central Chile continued in its 13th consecutive year, and 80-year record-low river levels in northern Argentina and Paraguay disrupted fluvial transport. In China, the Yangtze River reached record-low values. Much of equatorial eastern Africa had five consecutive below-normal rainy seasons by the end of 2022, with some areas receiving record-low precipitation totals for the year. This ongoing 2.5-year drought is the most extensive and persistent drought event in decades, and led to crop failure, millions of livestock deaths, water scarcity, and inflated prices for staple food items.

In South Asia, Pakistan received around three times its normal volume of monsoon precipitation in August, with some regions receiving up to eight times their expected monthly totals. Resulting floods affected over 30 million people, caused over 1700 fatalities, led to major crop and property losses, and was recorded as one of the world’s costliest natural disasters of all time. Near Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, Petrópolis received 530 mm in 24 hours on 15 February, about 2.5 times the monthly February average, leading to the worst disaster in the city since 1931 with over 230 fatalities.

On 14–15 January, the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai submarine volcano in the South Pacific erupted multiple times. The injection of water into the atmosphere was unprecedented in both magnitude—far exceeding any previous values in the 17-year satellite record—and altitude as it penetrated into the mesosphere. The amount of water injected into the stratosphere is estimated to be 146±5 Terragrams, or ∼10% of the total amount in the stratosphere. It may take several years for the water plume to dissipate, and it is currently unknown whether this eruption will have any long-term climate effect.

Open access