Search Results

You are looking at 11 - 14 of 14 items for

  • Author or Editor: Scott R. Dembek x
  • Refine by Access: All Content x
Clear All Modify Search
John S. Kain
,
Michael C. Coniglio
,
James Correia
,
Adam J. Clark
,
Patrick T. Marsh
,
Conrad L. Ziegler
,
Valliappa Lakshmanan
,
Stuart D. Miller Jr.
,
Scott R. Dembek
,
Steven J. Weiss
,
Fanyou Kong
,
Ming Xue
,
Ryan A. Sobash
,
Andrew R. Dean
,
Israel L. Jirak
, and
Christopher J. Melick

The 2011 Spring Forecasting Experiment in the NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) featured a significant component on convection initiation (CI). As in previous HWT experiments, the CI study was a collaborative effort between forecasters and researchers, with equal emphasis on experimental forecasting strategies and evaluation of prototype model guidance products. The overarching goal of the CI effort was to identify the primary challenges of the CI forecasting problem and to establish a framework for additional studies and possible routine forecasting of CI. This study confirms that convection-allowing models with grid spacing ~4 km represent many aspects of the formation and development of deep convection clouds explicitly and with predictive utility. Further, it shows that automated algorithms can skillfully identify the CI process during model integration. However, it also reveals that automated detection of individual convection cells, by itself, provides inadequate guidance for the disruptive potential of deep convection activity. Thus, future work on the CI forecasting problem should be couched in terms of convection-event prediction rather than detection and prediction of individual convection cells.

Full access
Adam J. Clark
,
Israel L. Jirak
,
Scott R. Dembek
,
Gerry J. Creager
,
Fanyou Kong
,
Kevin W. Thomas
,
Kent H. Knopfmeier
,
Burkely T. Gallo
,
Christopher J. Melick
,
Ming Xue
,
Keith A. Brewster
,
Youngsun Jung
,
Aaron Kennedy
,
Xiquan Dong
,
Joshua Markel
,
Matthew Gilmore
,
Glen S. Romine
,
Kathryn R. Fossell
,
Ryan A. Sobash
,
Jacob R. Carley
,
Brad S. Ferrier
,
Matthew Pyle
,
Curtis R. Alexander
,
Steven J. Weiss
,
John S. Kain
,
Louis J. Wicker
,
Gregory Thompson
,
Rebecca D. Adams-Selin
, and
David A. Imy

Abstract

One primary goal of annual Spring Forecasting Experiments (SFEs), which are coorganized by NOAA’s National Severe Storms Laboratory and Storm Prediction Center and conducted in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Hazardous Weather Testbed, is documenting performance characteristics of experimental, convection-allowing modeling systems (CAMs). Since 2007, the number of CAMs (including CAM ensembles) examined in the SFEs has increased dramatically, peaking at six different CAM ensembles in 2015. Meanwhile, major advances have been made in creating, importing, processing, verifying, and developing tools for analyzing and visualizing these large and complex datasets. However, progress toward identifying optimal CAM ensemble configurations has been inhibited because the different CAM systems have been independently designed, making it difficult to attribute differences in performance characteristics. Thus, for the 2016 SFE, a much more coordinated effort among many collaborators was made by agreeing on a set of model specifications (e.g., model version, grid spacing, domain size, and physics) so that the simulations contributed by each collaborator could be combined to form one large, carefully designed ensemble known as the Community Leveraged Unified Ensemble (CLUE). The 2016 CLUE was composed of 65 members contributed by five research institutions and represents an unprecedented effort to enable an evidence-driven decision process to help guide NOAA’s operational modeling efforts. Eight unique experiments were designed within the CLUE framework to examine issues directly relevant to the design of NOAA’s future operational CAM-based ensembles. This article will highlight the CLUE design and present results from one of the experiments examining the impact of single versus multicore CAM ensemble configurations.

Full access
Adam J. Clark
,
Israel L. Jirak
,
Burkely T. Gallo
,
Brett Roberts
,
Kent. H. Knopfmeier
,
Robert A. Clark
,
Jake Vancil
,
Andrew R. Dean
,
Kimberly A. Hoogewind
,
Pamela L. Heinselman
,
Nathan A. Dahl
,
Makenzie J. Krocak
,
Jessica J. Choate
,
Katie A. Wilson
,
Patrick S. Skinner
,
Thomas A. Jones
,
Yunheng Wang
,
Gerald J. Creager
,
Larissa J. Reames
,
Louis J. Wicker
,
Scott R. Dembek
, and
Steven J. Weiss
Free access
Adam J. Clark
,
Israel L. Jirak
,
Burkely T. Gallo
,
Brett Roberts
,
Andrew R. Dean
,
Kent H. Knopfmeier
,
Louis J. Wicker
,
Makenzie Krocak
,
Patrick S. Skinner
,
Pamela L. Heinselman
,
Katie A. Wilson
,
Jake Vancil
,
Kimberly A. Hoogewind
,
Nathan A. Dahl
,
Gerald J. Creager
,
Thomas A. Jones
,
Jidong Gao
,
Yunheng Wang
,
Eric D. Loken
,
Montgomery Flora
,
Christopher A. Kerr
,
Nusrat Yussouf
,
Scott R. Dembek
,
William Miller
,
Joshua Martin
,
Jorge Guerra
,
Brian Matilla
,
David Jahn
,
David Harrison
,
David Imy
, and
Michael C. Coniglio
Full access