Abstract

Hail forecast evaluations provide important insight into microphysical treatment of rimed ice. In this study we evaluate explicit 0–90-min EnKF-based storm-scale (500-m horizontal grid spacing) hail forecasts for a severe weather event that occurred in Oklahoma on 19 May 2013. Forecast ensembles are run using three different bulk microphysics (MP) schemes: the Milbrandt–Yau double-moment scheme (MY2), the Milbrandt–Yau triple-moment scheme (MY3), and the NSSL variable density-rimed ice double-moment scheme (NSSL). Output from a hydrometeor classification algorithm is used to verify surface hail size forecasts. All three schemes produce forecasts that predict the coverage of severe surface hail with moderate to high skill, but exhibit less skill at predicting significant severe hail coverage. A microphysical budget analysis is conducted to better understand hail growth processes in all three schemes. The NSSL scheme uses two-variable density-rimed ice categories to create large hailstones from dense, wet growth graupel particles; however, it is noted the scheme underestimates the coverage of significant severe hail. Both the MY2 and MY3 schemes produce many small hailstones aloft from unrimed, frozen raindrops; in the melting layer, hailstones become much larger than observations because of the excessive accretion of water. The results of this work highlight the importance of using a MP scheme that realistically models microphysical processes.

Abstract

In this study, a hybrid En3DVar data assimilation (DA) scheme is compared with 3DVar, EnKF, and pure En3DVar for the assimilation of radar data in a real tornadic storm case. Results using hydrometeor mixing ratios (CVq) or logarithmic mixing ratios (CVlogq) as the control variables are compared in the variational DA framework. To address the lack of radial velocity impact issues when using CVq, a procedure that assimilates reflectivity and radial velocity data in two separate analysis passes is adopted. Comparisons are made in terms of the root-mean-square innovations (RMSIs) as well as the intensity and structure of the analyzed and forecast storms. For pure En3DVar that uses 100% ensemble covariance, CVlogq and CVq have similar RMSIs in the velocity analyses, but errors grow faster during forecasts when using CVlogq. Introducing static background error covariance $\mathsf{B}$ at 5% in hybrid En3DVar (with CVlogq) significantly reduces the forecast error growth. Pure En3DVar produces more intense reflectivity analyses than EnKF that more closely match the observations. Hybrid En3DVar with 50% $\mathsf{B}$ outperforms other weights in terms of the RMSIs and forecasts of updraft helicity and is thus used in the final comparison with 3DVar and EnKF. The hybrid En3DVar is found to outperform EnKF in better capturing the intensity and structure of the analyzed and forecast storms and outperform 3DVAR in better capturing the intensity and evolution of the rotating updraft.

Abstract

A data assimilation system based on the ensemble square-root Kalman filter (EnSRF) is extended to include the additional capability of assimilating polarimetric radar variables. It is used to assess the impact of assimilating additional polarimetric observations on convective storm analysis in the Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) framework. The polarimetric variables considered include differential reflectivity Z _DR, reflectivity difference Z _dp, and specific differential phase K _DP. To simulate the observational data more realistically, a new error model is introduced for characterizing the errors of the nonpolarimetric and polarimetric radar variables. The error model includes both correlated and uncorrelated error components for reflectivities at horizontal and vertical polarizations (Z_H and Z_V , respectively). It is shown that the storm analysis is improved when polarimetric variables are assimilated in addition to Z_H or in addition to both Z_H and radial velocity V_r . Positive impact is largest when Z _DR, Z _dp, and K _DP are assimilated all together. Improvement is generally larger in vertical velocity, water vapor, and rainwater mixing ratios. The rainwater field benefits the most while the impacts on horizontal wind components and snow mixing ratio are smaller. Improvement is found at all model levels even though the polarimetric data, after the application of thresholds, are mostly limited to the lower levels. Among Z _DR, Z _dp, and K _DP, Z _DR is found to produce the largest positive impact on the analysis. It is suggested that Z _DR provides more independent information than the other variables. The impact of polarimetric data is also expected to be larger when they are used to retrieve drop size distribution parameters. The polarimetric radar data thresholding prior to assimilation is found to be necessary to minimize the impact of noise. This study is believed to be the first to directly assimilate (simulated) polarimetric data into a numerical model.

Abstract

Explicit prediction of hail using numerical weather prediction models remains a significant challenge; microphysical uncertainties and errors are a significant contributor to this challenge. This study assesses the ability of storm-scale ensemble forecasts using single-moment Lin or double-moment Milbrandt and Yau microphysical schemes in predicting hail during a severe weather event over south-central Oklahoma on 10 May 2010. Radar and surface observations are assimilated using an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) at 5-min intervals. Three sets of ensemble forecasts, launched at 15-min intervals, are then produced from EnKF analyses at times ranging from 30 min prior to the first observed hail to the time of the first observed hail. Forty ensemble members are run at 500-m horizontal grid spacing in both EnKF assimilation cycles and subsequent forecasts. Hail forecasts are verified using radar-derived products including information from single- and dual-polarization radar data: maximum estimated size of hail (MESH), hydrometeor classification algorithm (HCA) output, and hail size discrimination algorithm (HSDA) output. Resulting hail forecasts show at most marginal skill, with the level of skill dependent on the forecast initialization time and microphysical scheme used. Forecasts using the double-moment scheme predict many small hailstones aloft, while the single-moment members predict larger hailstones. Near the surface, double-moment members predict larger hailstone sizes than their single-member counterparts. Hail in the forecasts is found to melt too quickly near the surface for members using either of the microphysics schemes examined. Analysis of microphysical budgets in both schemes indicates that both schemes suboptimally represent hail processes, adversely impacting the skill of surface hail forecasts.

Abstract

Polarimetric radar variables are simulated from members of the 2013 Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms (CAPS) Storm-Scale Ensemble Forecasts (SSEF) with varying microphysics (MP) schemes and compared with observations. The polarimetric variables provide information on hydrometeor types and particle size distributions (PSDs), neither of which can be obtained through reflectivity (Z) alone. The polarimetric radar simulator pays close attention to how each MP scheme [including single- (SM) and double-moment (DM) schemes] treats hydrometeor types and PSDs. The recent dual-polarization upgrade to the entire WSR-88D network provides nationwide polarimetric observations, allowing for direct evaluation of the simulated polarimetric variables.

Simulations for a mesoscale convective system (MCS) and supercell cases are examined. Five different MP schemes—Thompson, DM Milbrandt and Yau (MY), DM Morrison, WRF DM 6-category (WDM6), and WRF SM 6-category (WSM6)—are used in the ensemble forecasts. Forecasts using the partially DM Thompson and fully DM MY and Morrison schemes better replicate the MCS structure and stratiform precipitation coverage, as well as supercell structure compared to WDM6 and WSM6. Forecasts using the MY and Morrison schemes better replicate observed polarimetric signatures associated with size sorting than those using the Thompson, WDM6, and WSM6 schemes, in which such signatures are either absent or occur at abnormal locations. Several biases are suggested in these schemes, including too much wet graupel in MY, Morrison, and WDM6; a small raindrop bias in WDM6 and WSM6; and the underforecast of liquid water content in regions of pure rain for all schemes.

Abstract

Microphysics parameterization becomes increasingly important as the model grid spacing increases toward convection-resolving scales. The performance of several partially or fully two-moment (2M) schemes within the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, version 3.5.1, chosen because of their well-documented advantages over one-moment (1M) schemes, is evaluated with respect to their ability in producing the well-known polarimetric radar signatures found within supercell storms. Such signatures include the Z _DR and K _DP columns, the Z _DR arc, the midlevel Z _DR and ρ _HV rings, the hail signature in the forward-flank downdraft, and the K _DP foot. Polarimetric variables are computed from WRF Model output using a polarimetric radar simulator. It is found that microphysics schemes with a 1M rimed-ice category are unable to simulate the Z _DR arc, despite containing a 2M rain category. It is also found that a hail-like rimed-ice category (in addition to graupel) may be necessary to reproduce the observed hail signature. For the microphysics schemes that only contain a graupel-like rimed-ice category, only very wet graupel particles are able to reach the lowest model level, which did not adequately reduce Z _DR in this signature. The most realistic signatures overall are found with microphysics schemes that are fully 2M with a separate hail category.

Abstract

Doppler radar data are assimilated with an ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) in combination with a double-moment (DM) microphysics scheme in order to improve the analysis and forecast of microphysical states and precipitation structures within a mesoscale convective system (MCS) that passed over western Oklahoma on 8–9 May 2007. Reflectivity and radial velocity data from five operational Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) S-band radars as well as four experimental Collaborative and Adaptive Sensing of the Atmosphere (CASA) X-band radars are assimilated over a 1-h period using either single-moment (SM) or DM microphysics schemes within the forecast ensemble. Three-hour deterministic forecasts are initialized from the final ensemble mean analyses using a SM or DM scheme, respectively. Polarimetric radar variables are simulated from the analyses and compared with polarimetric WSR-88D observations for verification. EnKF assimilation of radar data using a multimoment microphysics scheme for an MCS case has not previously been documented in the literature. The use of DM microphysics during data assimilation improves simulated polarimetric variables through differentiation of particle size distributions (PSDs) within the stratiform and convective regions. The DM forecast initiated from the DM analysis shows significant qualitative improvement over the assimilation and forecast using SM microphysics in terms of the location and structure of the MCS precipitation. Quantitative precipitation forecasting skills are also improved in the DM forecast. Better handling of the PSDs by the DM scheme is believed to be responsible for the improved prediction of the surface cold pool, a stronger leading convective line, and improved areal extent of stratiform precipitation.

Abstract

Despite recent advances in storm-scale ensemble NWP, short-term (0–90 min) explicit forecasts of severe hail remain a major challenge as a result of the fast evolution and short time scales of hail-producing convective storms and the substantial uncertainty associated with the microphysical representation of hail. In this study, 0–90-min ensemble hail forecasts for the supercell storms of 20 May 2013 over central Oklahoma are examined and verified, with the goals of 1) evaluating ensemble forecast performance, 2) comparing the advantages and limitations of different forecast fields potentially suitable for the prediction of hail and severe hail in a Warn-on-Forecast setting, and 3) evaluating the use of dual-polarization radar observations for hail forecast validation. To address the challenges of hail prediction and to produce skillful forecasts, the ensemble uses a two-moment microphysics scheme that explicitly predicts a hail-like rimed-ice category and is run with a grid spacing of 500 m. Radar reflectivity factor and radial velocity, along with surface observations, are assimilated every 5 min for 1 h as the storms were developing to maturity, followed by a 90-min ensemble forecast. Several methods of hail prediction and hail forecast verification are then examined, including the prediction of the maximum hail size compared to Storm Prediction Center (SPC) and Meteorological Phenomena Identification Near the Ground (mPING) hail observations, and verification of model data against single- and dual-polarization radar-derived fields including hydrometeor classification algorithm (HCA) output and the maximum estimated size of hail (MESH). The 0–90-min ensemble hail predictions are found to be marginally to moderately skillful depending on the verification method used.

Abstract

A hybrid parallel scheme for the ensemble square root filter (EnSRF) suitable for parallel assimilation of multiscale observations, including those from dense observational networks such as those of radar, is developed based on the domain decomposition strategy. The scheme handles internode communication through a message passing interface (MPI) and the communication within shared-memory nodes via Open Multiprocessing (OpenMP) threads. It also supports pure MPI and pure OpenMP modes. The parallel framework can accommodate high-volume remote-sensed radar (or satellite) observations as well as conventional observations that usually have larger covariance localization radii.

The performance of the parallel algorithm has been tested with simulated and real radar data. The parallel program shows good scalability in pure MPI and hybrid MPI–OpenMP modes, while pure OpenMP runs exhibit limited scalability on a symmetric shared-memory system. It is found that in MPI mode, better parallel performance is achieved with domain decomposition configurations in which the leading dimension of the state variable arrays is larger, because this configuration allows for more efficient memory access. Given a fixed amount of computing resources, the hybrid parallel mode is preferred to pure MPI mode on supercomputers with nodes containing shared-memory cores. The overall performance is also affected by factors such as the cache size, memory bandwidth, and the networking topology. Tests with a real data case with a large number of radars confirm that the parallel data assimilation can be done on a multicore supercomputer with a significant speedup compared to the serial data assimilation algorithm.

Abstract

Many flavors of multicategory, multimoment bulk microphysics schemes (BMPs) have various treatments of rimed ice. In this study, we compare three two-moment schemes available in the WRF Model—Milbrandt–Yau (MY2), National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL), and the two-category configuration of the Predicted Particle Properties (P3) scheme—focusing on differences in rimed-ice representation and their impacts on surface rain and ice. Idealized supercell simulations are performed. A polarimetric radar data simulator is used to evaluate their ability to reproduce the Z _DR arc and hail signature in the forward-flank downdraft, well-known supercell polarimetric signatures that are potentially sensitive to rimed-ice parameterization. Both the MY2 and NSSL schemes simulate enhanced surface Z _DR bands, but neither scheme simulates a Z _DR arc commonly identified in observation-based studies. Surface Z _DR in the default P3 scheme is homogeneous in the supercell’s forward flank, and is due to the scheme’s restrictive minimum rain particle size distribution (PSD) slope bound preventing the presence of larger drops creating a Z _DR arc. The NSSL scheme simulates the location of the hail signature in the forward-flank downdraft more consistent with observations than the other two schemes. Large hail in MY2 sediments well downstream of the updraft (atypically compared to observations) near the surface. The sedimentation of large ice in the default P3 scheme is limited by a restrictive maximum ice number-weighted mean diameter limit within the scheme, precluding the scheme’s ability to reduce Z _DR (and ρ _HV compared to the MY2 and NSSL schemes) near the surface.