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- Author or Editor: Yuan Yang x
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Abstract
A new thermodynamic retrieval scheme is developed by which one can use the wind fields synthesized from multiple-Doppler radars to derive the three-dimensional thermodynamic fields over complex terrain. A cost function consisting of momentum equations and a simplified thermodynamic equation is formulated. By categorizing the analysis domain into flow and terrain regions, the variational technique is applied to minimize this cost function only within the flow region, leading to the solutions for the three-dimensional pressure and temperature perturbations immediately over terrain. Using idealized datasets generated by a numerical model, an experiment is first conducted to assess the accuracy of the proposed algorithm. The retrieval scheme is then applied to a real case that occurred during the 2008 Southwestern Monsoon Experiment (SoWMEX) conducted in Taiwan. The retrieved thermodynamic fields, verified by radiosonde data, reveal the structure of a prefrontal squall line as it approaches a mountain. The retrieved three-dimensional high-resolution pressure and temperature along with the wind fields not only allow us to better understand the thermodynamic and kinematic structure of a heavy rainfall system, but can also be assimilated into a numerical model to improve the forecast.
Abstract
A new thermodynamic retrieval scheme is developed by which one can use the wind fields synthesized from multiple-Doppler radars to derive the three-dimensional thermodynamic fields over complex terrain. A cost function consisting of momentum equations and a simplified thermodynamic equation is formulated. By categorizing the analysis domain into flow and terrain regions, the variational technique is applied to minimize this cost function only within the flow region, leading to the solutions for the three-dimensional pressure and temperature perturbations immediately over terrain. Using idealized datasets generated by a numerical model, an experiment is first conducted to assess the accuracy of the proposed algorithm. The retrieval scheme is then applied to a real case that occurred during the 2008 Southwestern Monsoon Experiment (SoWMEX) conducted in Taiwan. The retrieved thermodynamic fields, verified by radiosonde data, reveal the structure of a prefrontal squall line as it approaches a mountain. The retrieved three-dimensional high-resolution pressure and temperature along with the wind fields not only allow us to better understand the thermodynamic and kinematic structure of a heavy rainfall system, but can also be assimilated into a numerical model to improve the forecast.
Abstract
Climate may significantly affect human society. Few studies have focused on the temperature impact on residents’ health, especially mental health status. This paper uses 98 423 observations in China to study the relationship between temperature and health, based on the China Family Panel Studies survey during 2010–16. We analyze the health effects of extreme hot and cold weather and compare the effects under different social demographic factors including gender, age, and income. We find that temperature and health status exhibit a nonlinear relationship. Women and low-income households are more likely to be impacted by extreme cold, whereas men, the elderly, and high-income households are more sensitive to extreme heat. Our results highlight the potential effects of extreme temperatures on physical and mental health and provide implications for future policy decisions to protect human health under a changing climate.
Abstract
Climate may significantly affect human society. Few studies have focused on the temperature impact on residents’ health, especially mental health status. This paper uses 98 423 observations in China to study the relationship between temperature and health, based on the China Family Panel Studies survey during 2010–16. We analyze the health effects of extreme hot and cold weather and compare the effects under different social demographic factors including gender, age, and income. We find that temperature and health status exhibit a nonlinear relationship. Women and low-income households are more likely to be impacted by extreme cold, whereas men, the elderly, and high-income households are more sensitive to extreme heat. Our results highlight the potential effects of extreme temperatures on physical and mental health and provide implications for future policy decisions to protect human health under a changing climate.
Abstract
Both South Asia and East Asia are the most polluted regions of the world. Unlike East Asia, the aerosol optical depth (AOD) over South Asia keeps increasing for all recent years, which calls for more attentions. This study investigates the impacts of anthropogenic emissions over South Asia on downstream region climate during spring with Community Earth System Model 2 (CESM2). The model results suggest that South Asian pollutants have significant impacts on East Asian spring climate, and the impacts could be even larger than local emitted aerosols. Two possible dynamical pathways (i.e., the northern and the southern pathways) bridging South Asian aerosol forcing and East Asian climate are proposed, and both ways are associated with the black carbon (BC) induced climate feedbacks surrounding Tibetan Plateau (TP).
The northern pathway is mainly due to the TP warming induced by BC snow darkening effect (SDE), which significantly reduces the surface air temperature (SAT) over northern East Asia. BC induced TP warming increases meridional thermal gradient and accelerates middle latitude jet stream, which favors the cold air activities over northern East Asia. The southern pathway is associated with BC’s “Elevated Heat Pump” hypothesis, which mainly affects the precipitation in southern East Asia. BC from South Asia accumulates near the south slope of TP, induces an abnormal ascending motion near Bay of Bengal. A compensating anomalous sinking motion is then forced in South China, which suppresses the precipitation there. A primary observational analysis is also performed to verify both dynamical pathways.
Abstract
Both South Asia and East Asia are the most polluted regions of the world. Unlike East Asia, the aerosol optical depth (AOD) over South Asia keeps increasing for all recent years, which calls for more attentions. This study investigates the impacts of anthropogenic emissions over South Asia on downstream region climate during spring with Community Earth System Model 2 (CESM2). The model results suggest that South Asian pollutants have significant impacts on East Asian spring climate, and the impacts could be even larger than local emitted aerosols. Two possible dynamical pathways (i.e., the northern and the southern pathways) bridging South Asian aerosol forcing and East Asian climate are proposed, and both ways are associated with the black carbon (BC) induced climate feedbacks surrounding Tibetan Plateau (TP).
The northern pathway is mainly due to the TP warming induced by BC snow darkening effect (SDE), which significantly reduces the surface air temperature (SAT) over northern East Asia. BC induced TP warming increases meridional thermal gradient and accelerates middle latitude jet stream, which favors the cold air activities over northern East Asia. The southern pathway is associated with BC’s “Elevated Heat Pump” hypothesis, which mainly affects the precipitation in southern East Asia. BC from South Asia accumulates near the south slope of TP, induces an abnormal ascending motion near Bay of Bengal. A compensating anomalous sinking motion is then forced in South China, which suppresses the precipitation there. A primary observational analysis is also performed to verify both dynamical pathways.
Abstract
Measurement of the usefulness of numerical weather prediction considers not only the forecast quality but also the possible economic value (EV) in the daily decision-making process of users. Discrimination ability of an ensemble prediction system (EPS) can be assessed by the relative operating characteristic (ROC), which is closely related to the EV provided by the same forecast system.
Focusing on short-range probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts (PQPFs) for typhoons, this study demonstrates the consistent and strongly related characteristics of ROC and EV based on the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) EPS operated at the Central Weather Bureau in Taiwan. Sensitivity experiments including the effect of terrain, calibration, and forecast uncertainties on ROC and EV show that the potential EV provided by a forecast system is mainly determined by the discrimination ability of the same system. The ROC and maximum EV (EVmax) of an EPS are insensitive to calibration, but the optimal probability threshold to achieve the EVmax becomes more reliable after calibration. In addition, the LAPS ensemble probabilistic forecasts outperform deterministic forecasts in respect to both ROC and EV, and such an advantage grows with increasing precipitation intensity. Also, even without explicitly knowing the cost–loss ratio, one can still optimize decision-making and obtain the EVmax by using ensemble probabilistic forecasts.
Abstract
Measurement of the usefulness of numerical weather prediction considers not only the forecast quality but also the possible economic value (EV) in the daily decision-making process of users. Discrimination ability of an ensemble prediction system (EPS) can be assessed by the relative operating characteristic (ROC), which is closely related to the EV provided by the same forecast system.
Focusing on short-range probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts (PQPFs) for typhoons, this study demonstrates the consistent and strongly related characteristics of ROC and EV based on the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) EPS operated at the Central Weather Bureau in Taiwan. Sensitivity experiments including the effect of terrain, calibration, and forecast uncertainties on ROC and EV show that the potential EV provided by a forecast system is mainly determined by the discrimination ability of the same system. The ROC and maximum EV (EVmax) of an EPS are insensitive to calibration, but the optimal probability threshold to achieve the EVmax becomes more reliable after calibration. In addition, the LAPS ensemble probabilistic forecasts outperform deterministic forecasts in respect to both ROC and EV, and such an advantage grows with increasing precipitation intensity. Also, even without explicitly knowing the cost–loss ratio, one can still optimize decision-making and obtain the EVmax by using ensemble probabilistic forecasts.
Abstract
Encountering of energetic ocean eddies and atmosphere storms makes the winter Kuroshio extension a hotspot for air–sea interactions. This second part investigates the regulation of vertical eddy heat transport Q
T
in the winter Kuroshio extension mixed layer by different types of air–sea interactions, including the atmosphere synoptic forcing, eddy thermal feedback resulting from eddy-induced surface heat flux anomalies, and eddy current feedback from eddy current’s imprint on wind stress. Atmosphere synoptic forcing modulates intraseasonal variation of Q
T
by boosting its component contributed by the turbulent thermal wind balance
Abstract
Encountering of energetic ocean eddies and atmosphere storms makes the winter Kuroshio extension a hotspot for air–sea interactions. This second part investigates the regulation of vertical eddy heat transport Q
T
in the winter Kuroshio extension mixed layer by different types of air–sea interactions, including the atmosphere synoptic forcing, eddy thermal feedback resulting from eddy-induced surface heat flux anomalies, and eddy current feedback from eddy current’s imprint on wind stress. Atmosphere synoptic forcing modulates intraseasonal variation of Q
T
by boosting its component contributed by the turbulent thermal wind balance
Abstract
Previous in situ observations have suggested that bottom water temperature variations in shelf seas can drive significant ocean bottom heat flux (BHF) by heat conduction. The BHF-driven bottom water temperature variations, however, have been overlooked in ocean general circulation models. In this study, we established a sea-sediment fully coupled model through incorporating the BHF. The coupled model included a sediment temperature module/model, and the BHF was calculated based on the sediment heat content variations. Meanwhile, we applied temporally varying BHF in the calculation of the bottom water temperature, which further determined the sediment temperature. The two-way coupled BHF process presents a more complete and physically reasonable heat budget in the ocean model and a synchronously varying sediment temperature profile. The coupled model was validated using a one-dimensional test case, and then it was applied in a domain covering the Bohai and Yellow Seas. The results suggest that when a strong thermocline exists, the BHF can change the bottom water temperature by more than 1°C because the effects of the BHF are limited to within a shallow bottom layer. However, when the water column is well mixed, the BHF changes the temperature of the entire water column, and the heat transported across the bottom boundary is ventilated to the atmosphere. Thus, the BHF has less effect on water temperature and may directly affect air–sea heat flux. The sea-sediment interactions dampen the amplitude of the bottom water temperature variations, which we propose calling the seabed dampening ocean heat content variation mechanism (SDH).
Abstract
Previous in situ observations have suggested that bottom water temperature variations in shelf seas can drive significant ocean bottom heat flux (BHF) by heat conduction. The BHF-driven bottom water temperature variations, however, have been overlooked in ocean general circulation models. In this study, we established a sea-sediment fully coupled model through incorporating the BHF. The coupled model included a sediment temperature module/model, and the BHF was calculated based on the sediment heat content variations. Meanwhile, we applied temporally varying BHF in the calculation of the bottom water temperature, which further determined the sediment temperature. The two-way coupled BHF process presents a more complete and physically reasonable heat budget in the ocean model and a synchronously varying sediment temperature profile. The coupled model was validated using a one-dimensional test case, and then it was applied in a domain covering the Bohai and Yellow Seas. The results suggest that when a strong thermocline exists, the BHF can change the bottom water temperature by more than 1°C because the effects of the BHF are limited to within a shallow bottom layer. However, when the water column is well mixed, the BHF changes the temperature of the entire water column, and the heat transported across the bottom boundary is ventilated to the atmosphere. Thus, the BHF has less effect on water temperature and may directly affect air–sea heat flux. The sea-sediment interactions dampen the amplitude of the bottom water temperature variations, which we propose calling the seabed dampening ocean heat content variation mechanism (SDH).
Abstract
Some basic statistics for wave breaking have been derived based on the statistical model of real sea waves. The analytic expressions of breaking entrainment depth and surface whitecap coverage involved with both sea wave characteristics and surface wind velocity have been derived on the basis of the whitecap formation model. The concept of the upper envelope for all the whitecap coverage data versus wind speed has been proposed, and it is assumed to correspond to the whitecap coverage in the case of the infinite wind duration and fetch to determine the model constants. The analytic expressions of breaking entrainment depth and whitecap coverage have been compared with the observations in several ways, and consistently favorable agreement can be found for most observations.
Abstract
Some basic statistics for wave breaking have been derived based on the statistical model of real sea waves. The analytic expressions of breaking entrainment depth and surface whitecap coverage involved with both sea wave characteristics and surface wind velocity have been derived on the basis of the whitecap formation model. The concept of the upper envelope for all the whitecap coverage data versus wind speed has been proposed, and it is assumed to correspond to the whitecap coverage in the case of the infinite wind duration and fetch to determine the model constants. The analytic expressions of breaking entrainment depth and whitecap coverage have been compared with the observations in several ways, and consistently favorable agreement can be found for most observations.
Abstract
The breeding method has been implemented in the NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP) coupled general circulation model (CGCM) with the ultimate goal of improving operational seasonal to interannual climate predictions through ensemble forecasting and data assimilation. This is the first attempt to isolate the evolving ENSO instability and its corresponding global atmospheric response in a fully coupled ocean–atmosphere GCM. The results herein show that the growth rate of the coupled bred vectors (BVs) is sensitive to the ENSO phases of the evolving background flow and peaks about 3 months before an ENSO event. The structure of the dominant growing BV modes also evolves with the background ENSO and exhibits a larger amplitude in the eastern tropical Pacific, reflecting the natural dynamical sensitivity associated with the shallow thermocline at the eastern boundary. The key features of coupled bred vectors of the NSIPP CGCM are reproduced when using the NCEP CGCM, an independently developed coupled general circulation model.
Abstract
The breeding method has been implemented in the NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP) coupled general circulation model (CGCM) with the ultimate goal of improving operational seasonal to interannual climate predictions through ensemble forecasting and data assimilation. This is the first attempt to isolate the evolving ENSO instability and its corresponding global atmospheric response in a fully coupled ocean–atmosphere GCM. The results herein show that the growth rate of the coupled bred vectors (BVs) is sensitive to the ENSO phases of the evolving background flow and peaks about 3 months before an ENSO event. The structure of the dominant growing BV modes also evolves with the background ENSO and exhibits a larger amplitude in the eastern tropical Pacific, reflecting the natural dynamical sensitivity associated with the shallow thermocline at the eastern boundary. The key features of coupled bred vectors of the NSIPP CGCM are reproduced when using the NCEP CGCM, an independently developed coupled general circulation model.
Abstract
Numerical simulations of the atmospheric boundary layer require careful representation of the surface heterogeneity, which involves the upscaling parameterization scheme for the heterogeneous surface parameters. In this study, the sensitivity comparisons of an effective aerodynamic parameter scheme against the area-weighted average scheme in simulating the land–atmosphere interaction over heterogeneous terrain were carried out by conducting multinested simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model at coarse and fine resolutions, for a typical sea–land breeze case in the Bohai Gulf of China. The results show that the limited-area model is sensitive to the aerodynamic parameter scheme and the effective aerodynamic parameter scheme exhibits a better performance in simulating the variables and parameters in the land–atmosphere interaction process, such as surface wind speed, sensible heat flux, latent heat flux, friction velocity, and surface air temperature, among others, for short-term simulations. Particularly, the underestimation of sensible heat flux and overestimation of latent heat flux over heterogeneous terrain with area-weighted average scheme for aerodynamic parameters can be improved with the effective parameter scheme in the coastal regions, where the mean simulation error with the effective parameter scheme is about one-half of that with the average scheme for sensible heat flux and one-third for latent heat flux.
Abstract
Numerical simulations of the atmospheric boundary layer require careful representation of the surface heterogeneity, which involves the upscaling parameterization scheme for the heterogeneous surface parameters. In this study, the sensitivity comparisons of an effective aerodynamic parameter scheme against the area-weighted average scheme in simulating the land–atmosphere interaction over heterogeneous terrain were carried out by conducting multinested simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model at coarse and fine resolutions, for a typical sea–land breeze case in the Bohai Gulf of China. The results show that the limited-area model is sensitive to the aerodynamic parameter scheme and the effective aerodynamic parameter scheme exhibits a better performance in simulating the variables and parameters in the land–atmosphere interaction process, such as surface wind speed, sensible heat flux, latent heat flux, friction velocity, and surface air temperature, among others, for short-term simulations. Particularly, the underestimation of sensible heat flux and overestimation of latent heat flux over heterogeneous terrain with area-weighted average scheme for aerodynamic parameters can be improved with the effective parameter scheme in the coastal regions, where the mean simulation error with the effective parameter scheme is about one-half of that with the average scheme for sensible heat flux and one-third for latent heat flux.
