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Assimilating Global Wave Model Predictions and Deep-Water Wave Observations in Nearshore Swell PredictionsAbstract
Nearshore wave predictions with high resolution in space and time are needed for boating safety, to assess flood risk, and to support nearshore processes research. This study presents methods for improving regional nearshore predictions of swell-band wave energy (0.04–0.09 Hz) by assimilating local buoy observations into a linear wave propagation model with a priori guidance from global WAVEWATCH III (WW3) model predictions. Linear wave propagation, including depth-induced refraction and shoaling, and travel time lags, is modeled with self-adjoint backward ray tracing techniques. The Bayesian assimilation yields smooth, high-resolution offshore wave directional spectra that are consistent with WW3, and with offshore and local buoy observations. Case studies in the Southern California Bight (SCB) confirm that the nearshore predictions at independent (nonassimilated) buoy sites are improved by assimilation compared with predictions driven with WW3 or with a single offshore buoy. These assimilation techniques, valid in regions and frequency bands where wave energy propagation is mostly linear, use significantly less computational resources than nonlinear models and variational methods, and could be a useful component of a larger regional assimilation program. Where buoy locations have historically been selected to meet local needs, these methods can aid in the design of regional buoy arrays by quantifying the regional skill improvement for a given buoy observation and identifying both high-value and redundant observations. Assimilation techniques also identify likely forward model error in the Santa Barbara Channel, where permanent observations or model corrections are needed.
Abstract
Nearshore wave predictions with high resolution in space and time are needed for boating safety, to assess flood risk, and to support nearshore processes research. This study presents methods for improving regional nearshore predictions of swell-band wave energy (0.04–0.09 Hz) by assimilating local buoy observations into a linear wave propagation model with a priori guidance from global WAVEWATCH III (WW3) model predictions. Linear wave propagation, including depth-induced refraction and shoaling, and travel time lags, is modeled with self-adjoint backward ray tracing techniques. The Bayesian assimilation yields smooth, high-resolution offshore wave directional spectra that are consistent with WW3, and with offshore and local buoy observations. Case studies in the Southern California Bight (SCB) confirm that the nearshore predictions at independent (nonassimilated) buoy sites are improved by assimilation compared with predictions driven with WW3 or with a single offshore buoy. These assimilation techniques, valid in regions and frequency bands where wave energy propagation is mostly linear, use significantly less computational resources than nonlinear models and variational methods, and could be a useful component of a larger regional assimilation program. Where buoy locations have historically been selected to meet local needs, these methods can aid in the design of regional buoy arrays by quantifying the regional skill improvement for a given buoy observation and identifying both high-value and redundant observations. Assimilation techniques also identify likely forward model error in the Santa Barbara Channel, where permanent observations or model corrections are needed.
Abstract
This study examines the role of the relative wind (RW) effect (wind relative to ocean current) in the regional ocean circulation and extratropical storm track in the south Indian Ocean. Comparison of two high-resolution regional coupled model simulations with and without the RW effect reveals that the most conspicuous ocean circulation response is the significant weakening of the overly energetic anticyclonic standing eddy off Port Elizabeth, South Africa, a biased feature ascribed to upstream retroflection of the Agulhas Current (AC). This opens a pathway through which the AC transports the warm and salty water mass from the subtropics, yielding marked increases in sea surface temperature (SST), upward turbulent heat flux (THF), and meridional SST gradient in the Agulhas retroflection region. These thermodynamic and dynamic changes are accompanied by the robust strengthening of the local low-tropospheric baroclinicity and the baroclinic wave activity in the atmosphere. Examination of the composite life cycle of synoptic-scale storms subjected to the high-THF events indicates a robust strengthening of the extratropical storms far downstream. Energetics calculations for the atmosphere suggest that the baroclinic energy conversion from the basic flow is the chief source of increased eddy available potential energy, which is subsequently converted to eddy kinetic energy, providing for the growth of transient baroclinic waves. Overall, the results suggest that the mechanical and thermal air–sea interactions are inherently and inextricably linked together to substantially influence the extratropical storm tracks in the south Indian Ocean.
Abstract
This study examines the role of the relative wind (RW) effect (wind relative to ocean current) in the regional ocean circulation and extratropical storm track in the south Indian Ocean. Comparison of two high-resolution regional coupled model simulations with and without the RW effect reveals that the most conspicuous ocean circulation response is the significant weakening of the overly energetic anticyclonic standing eddy off Port Elizabeth, South Africa, a biased feature ascribed to upstream retroflection of the Agulhas Current (AC). This opens a pathway through which the AC transports the warm and salty water mass from the subtropics, yielding marked increases in sea surface temperature (SST), upward turbulent heat flux (THF), and meridional SST gradient in the Agulhas retroflection region. These thermodynamic and dynamic changes are accompanied by the robust strengthening of the local low-tropospheric baroclinicity and the baroclinic wave activity in the atmosphere. Examination of the composite life cycle of synoptic-scale storms subjected to the high-THF events indicates a robust strengthening of the extratropical storms far downstream. Energetics calculations for the atmosphere suggest that the baroclinic energy conversion from the basic flow is the chief source of increased eddy available potential energy, which is subsequently converted to eddy kinetic energy, providing for the growth of transient baroclinic waves. Overall, the results suggest that the mechanical and thermal air–sea interactions are inherently and inextricably linked together to substantially influence the extratropical storm tracks in the south Indian Ocean.
Abstract
Southern Ocean (SO) surface winds are essential for ventilating the upper ocean by bringing heat and CO2 to the ocean interior. The relationships between mixed layer ventilation, the southern annular mode (SAM), and the storm tracks remain unclear because processes can be governed by short-term wind events as well as long-term means. In this study, observed time-varying 5-day probability density functions (PDFs) of ERA5 surface winds and stresses over the SO are used in a singular value decomposition to derive a linearly independent set of empirical basis functions. The first modes of wind (72% of the total wind variance) and stress (74% of the total stress variance) are highly correlated with a standard SAM index (r = 0.82) and reflect the SAM’s role in driving cyclone intensity and, in turn, extreme westerly winds. The joint PDFs of zonal and meridional wind show that southerly and less westerly winds associated with strong mixed layer ventilation are more frequent during short and distinct negative SAM phases. The probability of these short-term events might be related to midlatitude atmospheric circulation. The second mode describes seasonal changes in the wind variance (16% of the total variance) that are uncorrelated with the first mode. The analysis produces similar results when repeated using 5-day PDFs from a suite of scatterometer products. Differences between wind product PDFs resemble the first mode of the PDFs. Together, these results show a strong correlation between surface stress PDFs and the leading modes of atmospheric variability, suggesting that empirical modes can serve as a novel pathway for understanding differences and variability of surface stress PDFs.
Abstract
Southern Ocean (SO) surface winds are essential for ventilating the upper ocean by bringing heat and CO2 to the ocean interior. The relationships between mixed layer ventilation, the southern annular mode (SAM), and the storm tracks remain unclear because processes can be governed by short-term wind events as well as long-term means. In this study, observed time-varying 5-day probability density functions (PDFs) of ERA5 surface winds and stresses over the SO are used in a singular value decomposition to derive a linearly independent set of empirical basis functions. The first modes of wind (72% of the total wind variance) and stress (74% of the total stress variance) are highly correlated with a standard SAM index (r = 0.82) and reflect the SAM’s role in driving cyclone intensity and, in turn, extreme westerly winds. The joint PDFs of zonal and meridional wind show that southerly and less westerly winds associated with strong mixed layer ventilation are more frequent during short and distinct negative SAM phases. The probability of these short-term events might be related to midlatitude atmospheric circulation. The second mode describes seasonal changes in the wind variance (16% of the total variance) that are uncorrelated with the first mode. The analysis produces similar results when repeated using 5-day PDFs from a suite of scatterometer products. Differences between wind product PDFs resemble the first mode of the PDFs. Together, these results show a strong correlation between surface stress PDFs and the leading modes of atmospheric variability, suggesting that empirical modes can serve as a novel pathway for understanding differences and variability of surface stress PDFs.
Optimizing the Biogeochemical Argo Float DistributionAbstract
The core Argo array has operated with the design goal of uniform spatial distribution of 3° in latitude and longitude. Recent studies have acknowledged that spatial and temporal scales of variability in some parts of the ocean are not resolved by 3° sampling and have recommended increased core Argo density in the equatorial region, boundary currents, and marginal seas with an integrated vision of other Argo variants. Biogeochemical (BGC) Argo floats currently observe the ocean from a collection of pilot arrays, but recently funded proposals will transition these pilot arrays to a global array. The current BGC Argo implementation plan recommends uniform spatial distribution of BGC Argo floats. For the first time, we estimate the effectiveness of the existing BGC Argo array to resolve the anomaly from the mean using a subset of modeled, full-depth BGC fields. We also study the effectiveness of uniformly distributed BGC Argo arrays with varying float densities at observing the ocean. Then, using previous Argo trajectories, we estimate the Argo array’s future distribution and quantify how well it observes the ocean. Finally, using a novel technique for sequentially identifying the best deployment locations, we suggest the optimal array distribution for BGC Argo floats to minimize objective mapping uncertainty in a subset of BGC fields and to best constrain BGC temporal variability.
Abstract
The core Argo array has operated with the design goal of uniform spatial distribution of 3° in latitude and longitude. Recent studies have acknowledged that spatial and temporal scales of variability in some parts of the ocean are not resolved by 3° sampling and have recommended increased core Argo density in the equatorial region, boundary currents, and marginal seas with an integrated vision of other Argo variants. Biogeochemical (BGC) Argo floats currently observe the ocean from a collection of pilot arrays, but recently funded proposals will transition these pilot arrays to a global array. The current BGC Argo implementation plan recommends uniform spatial distribution of BGC Argo floats. For the first time, we estimate the effectiveness of the existing BGC Argo array to resolve the anomaly from the mean using a subset of modeled, full-depth BGC fields. We also study the effectiveness of uniformly distributed BGC Argo arrays with varying float densities at observing the ocean. Then, using previous Argo trajectories, we estimate the Argo array’s future distribution and quantify how well it observes the ocean. Finally, using a novel technique for sequentially identifying the best deployment locations, we suggest the optimal array distribution for BGC Argo floats to minimize objective mapping uncertainty in a subset of BGC fields and to best constrain BGC temporal variability.
Abstract
California experienced a historic run of nine consecutive landfalling atmospheric rivers (ARs) in three weeks’ time during winter 2022-2023. Following three years of drought from 2020-2022, intense landfalling ARs across California in December 2022 – January 2023 were responsible for bringing reservoirs back to historical averages and producing damaging floods and debris flows. In recent years, the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes and collaborating institutions have developed and routinely provided to end users peer-reviewed experimental seasonal (1-6 month lead time) and subseasonal (2-6 week lead time) prediction tools for western U.S. ARs, circulation regimes, and precipitation. Here, we evaluate the performance of experimental seasonal precipitation forecasts for winter 2022-2023, along with experimental subseasonal AR activity and circulation forecasts during the December 2022 regime shift from dry conditions to persistent troughing and record AR-driven wetness over the western U.S. Experimental seasonal precipitation forecasts were too dry across Southern California (likely due to their overreliance on La Niña), and the observed above normal precipitation across Northern and Central California was underpredicted. However, experimental subseasonal forecasts skillfully captured the regime shift from dry to wet conditions in late December 2022 at 2-3 week lead time. During this time, an active MJO shift from phases 4&5 to 6&7 occurred, which historically tilts the odds towards increased AR activity over California. New experimental seasonal and subseasonal synthesis forecast products, designed to aggregate information across institutions and methods, are introduced in the context of this historic winter to provide situational awareness guidance to western U.S. water managers.
Abstract
California experienced a historic run of nine consecutive landfalling atmospheric rivers (ARs) in three weeks’ time during winter 2022-2023. Following three years of drought from 2020-2022, intense landfalling ARs across California in December 2022 – January 2023 were responsible for bringing reservoirs back to historical averages and producing damaging floods and debris flows. In recent years, the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes and collaborating institutions have developed and routinely provided to end users peer-reviewed experimental seasonal (1-6 month lead time) and subseasonal (2-6 week lead time) prediction tools for western U.S. ARs, circulation regimes, and precipitation. Here, we evaluate the performance of experimental seasonal precipitation forecasts for winter 2022-2023, along with experimental subseasonal AR activity and circulation forecasts during the December 2022 regime shift from dry conditions to persistent troughing and record AR-driven wetness over the western U.S. Experimental seasonal precipitation forecasts were too dry across Southern California (likely due to their overreliance on La Niña), and the observed above normal precipitation across Northern and Central California was underpredicted. However, experimental subseasonal forecasts skillfully captured the regime shift from dry to wet conditions in late December 2022 at 2-3 week lead time. During this time, an active MJO shift from phases 4&5 to 6&7 occurred, which historically tilts the odds towards increased AR activity over California. New experimental seasonal and subseasonal synthesis forecast products, designed to aggregate information across institutions and methods, are introduced in the context of this historic winter to provide situational awareness guidance to western U.S. water managers.
