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Edward S. Epstein
and
Rex J. Fleming

Abstract

Stochastic dynamic prediction provides information on the variances and covariances of the predicted meteorological fields as well as the expected values of the fields themselves. It is shown that this new information can be depicted in a variety of graphical formats that illustrate various aspects of the certainty and uncertainty of the predictions and demonstrate the value of specific information on uncertainty.

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Allan H. Murphy
and
Edward S. Epstein

Abstract

The evaluation process is considered in some detail with particular reference to probabilistic predictions. The process consists of several ordered steps at each of which elements (of the process) are identified. Consideration of the purposes leads to the identification of two distinct forms of evaluation: operational evaluation concerned with the value of predictions to the user and empirical evaluation, or verification, concerned with the perfection of predictions, i.e., the association between predictions and observations. Attributes, i.e., desirable properties, of predictions are defined with reference to these purposes, and a number of measures of the attributes for empirical evaluation are considered. An artificial example of comparative verification in which different measures appear to yield contradictory results is used to demonstrate the importance of, and need for, a careful analysis of the evaluation process.

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Allan H. Murphy
and
Edward S. Epstein

Abstract

The consideration of a maxim and a statement, both of which are concerned with “hedging” on the part of meteorologists who prepare probability forecasts, leads to the identification of a property which all proper scoring systems for such forecasts should possess. A scoring system, to be proper, should encourage the meteorologist to make his probabilities correspond to his true beliefs. The conditions which a proper scoring system must satisfy are formulated in mathematical terms. Several existing scoring systems are examined to ascertain whether or not the systems are proper.

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concerning possible effects of air pollution on climate

testimony before the Subcommittee on the Environment and the Atmosphere of the Committee on Science and Technology, U.S. House of Representatives, 13–14 November 1975

Helmut E. Landsberg
and
Edward S. Epstein
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MAURICE E. GRAVES
and
EDWARD S. EPSTEIN

Abstract

With the future utilization of new-type upper tropospheric observations in mind, the estimation of 500-mb. geopotential height from 300-mb. data is accomplished by least squares regression. The regression coefficients form latitudinal patterns which can be expressed by linear relationships in low latitudes and parabolic relationships else-where. From three year's mid-seasonal-month grid data, measures of extrapolation error are obtained over half of the Northern Hemisphere. Verifying tests with radiosonde station data indicate that the error in low latitudes is substantially due to analysis noise in the 500-mb. grid data.

When the same techniques are applied to 200-mb. information, further error studies show considerably less feasibility of extrapolation from that level to 500 mb. However, the temperature at 200 mb. is found to be valuable in predicting the simultaneous temperature at 500 mb.

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Edward S. Epstein
,
Charles Osterberg
, and
Arthur Adel

Abstract

A new method for determining the vertical distribution of ozone, utilizing only surface observations, has been developed. Infrared and ultraviolet observations are used to complement one another. The theoretical background of the method is discussed in detail, and the techniques of its application are described. Also presented are the results of applying the method to data collected in the seven months beginning February 1955 (124 days' observations). There are definite seasonal trends in the distributions, which are not related in any simple way to the total amount of ozone. The ozone is lowest at times of passages of troughs aloft. Ozone densities at low levels are greatest when surface pressure is lowest.

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Thomas R. Karl
,
Robert E. Livezey
, and
Edward S. Epstein

A long-time series (1895–1984) of mean areally averaged winter temperatures in the contiguous United States depicts an unprecedented spell of abnormal winters beginning with the winter of 1975–76. Three winters during the eight-year period, 1975–76 through 1982–83, are defined as much warmer than normal (abnormal), and the three consecutive winters, 1976–77 through 1978–79, much colder than normal (abnormal). Abnormal is defined here by the least abnormal of these six winters based on their normalized departures from the mean. When combined, these two abnormal categories have an expected frequency close to 21%. Assuming that the past 89 winters (1895–1984) are a large enough sample to estimate the true interannual temperature variability between winters, we find, using Monte Carlo simulations, that the return period of a series of six winters out of eight being either much above or much below normal is more than 1000 years. This event exceeds the calculated return period of the three consecutive much colder than normal winters (1976–77 through 1978–79) all falling into a much below normal category, i.e., one that is expected to contain approximately 10% of the data. The more moderate winters of 1981–82 and 1983–84 can also be considered abnormal by relaxing the limits necessary for an abnormal classification, but this gives a return period of 467 years for the spell of eight abnormal winters in the nine consecutive winters 1975–76 through 1983–84.

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Richard J. Reed
,
Robert M. White
,
Edward S. Epstein
,
Richard A. Craig
,
Harry Hamilton
,
Robert E. Livezey
,
David Houghton
, and
Frederick Carr
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history, policy, and future of industrial meteorology

Papers presented at Session 4 of the 56th Annual Meeting of the AMS, 20 January 1976, Philadelphia, Pa.

Robert D. Elliott
,
Charles C. Bates
,
W. Boynton Beckwith
,
John E. Wallace
,
Francis K. Davis
,
Loren W. Crow
,
Edward S. Epstein
,
D. Ray Booker
, and
John C. Freeman
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J. K. Andersen
,
Liss M. Andreassen
,
Emily H. Baker
,
Thomas J. Ballinger
,
Logan T. Berner
,
Germar H. Bernhard
,
Uma S. Bhatt
,
Jarle W. Bjerke
,
Jason E. Box
,
L. Britt
,
R. Brown
,
David Burgess
,
John Cappelen
,
Hanne H. Christiansen
,
B. Decharme
,
C. Derksen
,
D. S. Drozdov
,
Howard E. Epstein
,
L. M. Farquharson
,
Sinead L. Farrell
,
Robert S. Fausto
,
Xavier Fettweis
,
Vitali E. Fioletov
,
Bruce C. Forbes
,
Gerald V. Frost
,
Sebastian Gerland
,
Scott J. Goetz
,
Jens-Uwe Grooß
,
Edward Hanna
,
Inger Hanssen-Bauer
,
Stefan Hendricks
,
Iolanda Ialongo
,
K. Isaksen
,
Bjørn Johnsen
,
L. Kaleschke
,
A. L. Kholodov
,
Seong-Joong Kim
,
Jack Kohler
,
Zachary Labe
,
Carol Ladd
,
Kaisa Lakkala
,
Mark J. Lara
,
Bryant Loomis
,
Bartłomiej Luks
,
K. Luojus
,
Matthew J. Macander
,
G. V. Malkova
,
Kenneth D. Mankoff
,
Gloria L. Manney
,
J. M. Marsh
,
Walt Meier
,
Twila A. Moon
,
Thomas Mote
,
L. Mudryk
,
F. J. Mueter
,
Rolf Müller
,
K. E. Nyland
,
Shad O’Neel
,
James E. Overland
,
Don Perovich
,
Gareth K. Phoenix
,
Martha K. Raynolds
,
C. H. Reijmer
,
Robert Ricker
,
Vladimir E. Romanovsky
,
E. A. G. Schuur
,
Martin Sharp
,
Nikolai I. Shiklomanov
,
C. J. P. P. Smeets
,
Sharon L. Smith
,
Dimitri A. Streletskiy
,
Marco Tedesco
,
Richard L. Thoman
,
J. T. Thorson
,
X. Tian-Kunze
,
Mary-Louise Timmermans
,
Hans Tømmervik
,
Mark Tschudi
,
Dirk van As
,
R. S. W. van de Wal
,
Donald A. Walker
,
John E. Walsh
,
Muyin Wang
,
Melinda Webster
,
Øyvind Winton
,
Gabriel J. Wolken
,
K. Wood
,
Bert Wouters
, and
S. Zador
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