Abstract

For the first time, the NOAA/Aircraft Operations Center (AOC) flew stepped frequency microwave radiometers (SFMRs) on both WP-3D research aircraft for operational hurricane surface wind speed measurement in 2005. An unprecedented number of major hurricanes provided ample data to evaluate both instrument performance and surface wind speed retrieval quality up to 70 m s⁻¹ (Saffir–Simpson category 5). To this end, a new microwave emissivity–wind speed model function based on estimates of near-surface winds in hurricanes by global positioning system (GPS) dropwindsondes is proposed. For practical purposes, utilizing this function removes a previously documented high bias in moderate SFMR-measured wind speeds (10–50 m s⁻¹), and additionally corrects an extreme wind speed (>60 m s⁻¹) underestimate. The AOC operational SFMRs yield retrievals that are precise to within ∼2% at 30 m s⁻¹, which is a factor of 2 improvement over the NOAA Hurricane Research Division’s SFMR, and comparable to the precision found here for GPS dropwindsonde near-surface wind speeds. A small (1.6 m s⁻¹), but statistically significant, overall high bias was found for independent SFMR measurements utilizing emissivity data not used for model function development. Across the range of measured wind speeds (10–70 m s⁻¹), SFMR 10-s averaged wind speeds are within 4 m s⁻¹ (rms) of the dropwindsonde near-surface estimate, or 5%–25% depending on speed. However, an analysis of eyewall peak wind speeds indicates an overall 2.6 m s⁻¹ GPS low bias relative to the peak SFMR estimate on the same flight leg, suggesting a real increase in the maximum wind speed estimate due to SFMR’s high-density sampling. Through a series of statistical tests, the SFMR is shown to reduce the overall bias in the peak surface wind speed estimate by ∼50% over the current flight-level wind reduction method and is comparable at extreme wind speeds. The updated model function is demonstrated to behave differently below and above the hurricane wind speed threshold (∼32 m s⁻¹), which may have implications for air–sea momentum and kinetic energy exchange. The change in behavior is at least qualitatively consistent with recent laboratory and field results concerning the drag coefficient in high wind speed conditions, which show a fairly clear “leveling off” of the drag coefficient with increased wind speed above ∼30 m s⁻¹. Finally, a composite analysis of historical data indicates that the earth-relative SFMR peak wind speed is typically located in the hurricane’s right-front quadrant, which is consistent with previous observational and theoretical studies of surface wind structure.

Abstract

This study highlights infrared sensor technology incorporated into the global positioning system (GPS) dropsonde platforms to obtain sea surface temperature (SST) measurements. This modified sonde (IRsonde) is used to improve understanding of air–sea interaction in tropical cyclones (TCs). As part of the Sandy Supplemental Program, IRsondes were constructed and then deployed during the 2014 hurricane season. Comparisons between SSTs measured by collocated IRsondes and ocean expendables show good agreement, especially in regions with no rain contamination. Surface fluxes were estimated using measurements from the IRsondes and AXBTs via a bulk method that requires measurements of SST and near-surface (10 m) wind speed, temperature, and humidity. The evolution of surface fluxes and their role in the intensification and weakening of Hurricane Edouard (2014) are discussed in the context of boundary layer recovery. The study’s result emphasizes the important role of surface flux–induced boundary layer recovery in regulating the low-level thermodynamic structure that is tied to the asymmetry of convection and TC intensity change.

In 2005, NOAA's Hurricane Research Division (HRD), part of the Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, began a multiyear experiment called the Intensity Forecasting Experiment (IFEX). By emphasizing a partnership among NOAA's HRD, Environmental Modeling Center (EMC), National Hurricane Center (NHC), Aircraft Operations Center (AOC), and National Environmental Satellite Data Information Service (NESDIS), IFEX represents a new approach for conducting hurricane field program operations. IFEX is intended to improve the prediction of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity change by 1) collecting observations that span the TC life cycle in a variety of environments; 2) developing and refining measurement technologies that provide improved real-time monitoring of TC intensity, structure, and environment; and 3) improving the understanding of the physical processes important in intensity change for a TC at all stages of its life cycle.

This paper presents a summary of the accomplishments of IFEX during the 2005 hurricane season. New and refined technologies for measuring such fields as surface and three-dimensional wind fields, and the use of unmanned aerial vehicles, were achieved in a variety of field experiments that spanned the life cycle of several tropical cyclones, from formation and early organization to peak intensity and subsequent landfall or extratropical transition. Partnerships with other experiments during 2005 also expanded the spatial and temporal coverage of the data collected in 2005. A brief discussion of the plans for IFEX in 2006 is also provided.

An update of the progress achieved as part of the NOAA Intensity Forecasting Experiment (IFEX) is provided. Included is a brief summary of the noteworthy aircraft missions flown in the years since 2005, the first year IFEX flights occurred, as well as a description of the research and development activities that directly address the three primary IFEX goals: 1) collect observations that span the tropical cyclone (TC) life cycle in a variety of environments for model initialization and evaluation; 2) develop and refine measurement strategies and technologies that provide improved real-time monitoring of TC intensity, structure, and environment; and 3) improve the understanding of physical processes important in intensity change for a TC at all stages of its life cycle. Such activities include the real-time analysis and transmission of Doppler radar measurements; numerical model and data assimilation advancements; characterization of tropical cyclone composite structure across multiple scales, from vortex scale to turbulence scale; improvements in statistical prediction of rapid intensification; and studies specifically targeting tropical cyclogenesis, extratropical transition, and the impact of environmental humidity on TC structure and evolution. While progress in TC intensity forecasting remains challenging, the activities described here provide some hope for improvement.