Abstract

Optically thin cirrus play a key role in the earth’s radiation budget and global climate change. Their radiative effects depend critically on the thin cirrus optical and microphysical properties. In this paper, inhomogeneous hexagonal monocrystals (IHMs), which consist of a pure hexagon with spherical air bubble or aerosol inclusions, are applied to calculate the single-scattering properties of individual ice crystals. The multiangular polarized characteristics of optically thin cirrus for the 0.865- and 1.38-μm spectral bands are simulated on the basis of an adding–doubling radiative transfer program. The sensitivity of total and polarized reflectance at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) to different aerosol, cirrus, and surface parameters is studied. A new sensitivity index is introduced to further quantify the sensitivity study. The TOA polarized reflectance measured by the Polarization and Directionality of the Earth’s Reflectance (POLDER) instruments is compared to simulated TOA total and polarized reflectance. The test results are reasonable, although small deviations caused by the change of aerosol properties and thin cirrus optical thickness do exist. Finally, on the basis of the sensitivity study, a conceptual approach is suggested to simultaneously retrieve thin cirrus clouds’ optical thickness, ice particle shape, and the underlying aerosol optical thickness using the TOA total and polarized reflectance of the 0.865- and 1.38-μm spectral bands measured at multiple viewing angles.

Abstract

During the period of 21–25 June 1991, a mei-yu front, observed by the post–Taiwan Area Mesoscale Experiment, produced heavy precipitation along the western side of the Central Mountain Range of Taiwan. Several oceanic mesoscale convective systems were also generated in an area extending from Taiwan to Hong Kong. Numerical experiments using the Penn State–NCAR MM5 mesoscale model were used to understand the intensification of the low-level jet (LLJ). These processes include thermal wind adjustment and convective, inertial, and conditional symmetric instabilities.

Three particular circulations are important in the development of the mei-yu front. First, there is a northward branch of the circulation that develops across the upper-level jet and is mainly caused by the thermal wind adjustment as air parcels enter an upper-level jet streak. The upper-level divergence associated with this branch of the circulation triggers convection.

Second, the southward branch of the circulation, with its rising motion in the frontal region and equatorward sinking motion, is driven by frontal vertical deep convection. The return flow of this circulation at low levels can produce an LLJ through geostrophic adjustment. The intensification of the LLJ is sensitive to the presence of convection.

Third, there is a circulation that develops from low to middle levels that has a slantwise rising and sinking motion in the pre- and postfrontal regions, respectively. From an absolute momentum surface analysis, this slantwise circulation is maintained by conditionally symmetric instability located at low levels ahead of the front. The presence of both the LLJ and moisture is an essential ingredient in fostering this conditionally symmetric unstable environment.

Abstract

The Maritime Continent (MC), located in the heart of the Indo-Pacific warm pool, plays an important role in the global climate. However, the future MC climate is largely unknown, in particular the ENSO–rainfall teleconnection. ENSO induces a zonal dipole pattern of rainfall variability across the Indo-Pacific Ocean, that is, positive variability in the tropical Pacific and negative variability toward the MC. Here, new CMIP6 models robustly project that, for both land and sea rainfall, the negative ENSO teleconnection over the MC (drier during El Niño and wetter during La Niña) could intensify significantly under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5–8.5 (SSP585) warming scenario. A strengthened teleconnection may cause enhanced droughts and flooding, leading to agricultural impacts and altering rainfall predictability over the region. Models also project that both the Indo-Pacific rainfall center and the zero crossing of dipole-like rainfall variability shift eastward; these adjustments are more notable during boreal summer than during winter. All these projections are robustly supported by the model agreement and scale up with the warming trend.

Abstract

A coupled land surface–atmospheric model that permits grid-resolved deep convection is used to examine linkages between land surface conditions, the planetary boundary layer (PBL), and precipitation during a 12-day warm-season period over the central United States. The period of study (9–21 June 2002) coincided with an extensive dry soil moisture anomaly over the western United States and adjacent high plains and wetter-than-normal soil conditions over parts of the Midwest. A range of possible atmospheric responses to soil wetness is diagnosed from a set of simulations that use land surface models (LSMs) of varying sophistication and initial land surface conditions of varying resolution and specificity to the period of study.

Results suggest that the choice of LSM [Noah or the less sophisticated simple slab soil model (SLAB)] significantly influences the diurnal cycle of near-surface potential temperature and water vapor mixing ratio. The initial soil wetness also has a major impact on these thermodynamic variables, particularly during and immediately following the most intense phase of daytime surface heating. The soil wetness influences the daytime PBL evolution through both local and upstream surface evaporation and sensible heat fluxes, and through differences in the mesoscale vertical circulation that develops in response to horizontal gradients of the latter. Resulting differences in late afternoon PBL moist static energy and stability near the PBL top are associated with differences in subsequent late afternoon and evening precipitation in locations where the initial soil wetness differs among simulations. In contrast to the initial soil wetness, soil moisture evolution has negligible effects on the mean regional-scale thermodynamic conditions and precipitation during the 12-day period.

Abstract

Surface temperature patterns of drained organic soil farmland in the Everglades Agricultural Area south of Lake Okeechobee, Florida, were studied using GOES-1 satellite infrared digital data for the winters of 1976–77 and 1977–78. Local thermal features were explained in terms of soil types, soil depths and climate modification caused by organic soil drainage. A cold-prone area was delineated in the Everglades Agricultural Area with satellite data. The winter nighttime surface temperatures of this area were more characteristic of north central Florida, approximately 370 km further north, than of surrounding areas of mineral soil or undrained organic soil.

Abstract

Retrospective-analysis (or reanalysis) systems merge observations and models to provide global four-dimensional earth system data encompassing many physical and dynamical processes. Precipitation is one critical diagnostic that is not only sensitive to the observing system and model physics, but also reflects the general circulation. Climate records of observed precipitation through a merged satellite and gauge dataset provide a reference for comparison, though not without their own uncertainty. In this study, five reanalyses precipitation fields are compared with two observed data products to assess the strengths and weaknesses of the reanalyses. Taylor diagrams show the skill of the reanalyses relative to the reference dataset. While there is a general sense that the reanalyses precipitation data are improving in recent systems, it is not always the case. In some ocean regions, NCEP–NCAR reanalysis spatial patterns are closer to observed precipitation than NCEP–Department of Energy. The 40-yr ECMWF reanalysis (ERA-40) produces reasonable comparisons over Northern Hemisphere continents, but less so in the tropical oceans. On the other hand, the most recent reanalysis, the Japanese 25-yr reanalysis (JRA-25), shows good comparisons in both the Northern Hemisphere continents and the tropical oceans but contains distinct variation according to the available observing systems. The statistics and methods used are also tested on short experiments from a data assimilation system proposed to perform a satellite-era reanalysis.

Abstract

This study presents a framework for comparing hydrometeor and vertical velocity fields from mesoscale model simulations of tropical cyclones with observations of these fields from a variety of platforms. The framework is based on the Yuter and Houze constant frequency by altitude diagram (CFAD) technique, along with a new hurricane partitioning technique, to compare the statistics of vertical motion and reflectivity fields and hydrometeor concentrations from two datasets: one consisting of airborne radar retrievals and microphysical probe measurements collected from tropical cyclone aircraft flights over many years, and another consisting of cloud-scale (1.67-km grid length) tropical cyclone simulations using the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5). Such comparisons of the microphysics fields can identify biases in the simulations that may lead to an identification of deficiencies in the modeling system, such as the formulation of various physical parameterization schemes used in the model. Improvements in these schemes may potentially lead to better forecasts of tropical cyclone intensity and rainfall.

In Part I of this study, the evaluation framework is demonstrated by comparing the radar retrievals and probe measurements to MM5 simulations of Hurricanes Bonnie (1998) and Floyd (1999). Comparisons of the statistics from the two datasets show that the model reproduces many of the gross features seen in the observations, though notable differences are evident. The general distribution of vertical motion is similar between the observations and simulations, with the strongest up- and downdrafts making up a small percentage of the overall population in both datasets, but the magnitudes of vertical motion are weaker in the simulations. The model-derived reflectivities are much higher than observed, and correlations between vertical motion and hydrometeor concentration and reflectivity show a much stronger relationship in the model than what is observed. Possible errors in the data processing are discussed as potential sources of differences between the observed and simulated datasets in Part I. In Part II, attention will be focused on using the evaluation framework to investigate the role that different model configurations (i.e., different resolutions and physical parameterizations) play in producing different microphysics fields in the simulation of Hurricane Bonnie. The microphysical and planetary boundary layer parameterization schemes, as well as higher horizontal and vertical resolutions, will be tested in the simulation to identify the extent to which changes in these schemes are reflected in improvements of the statistical comparisons with the observations.

Abstract

An analysis is performed on a microburst line-producing cloud that occurred near Denver, Colorado on 13 July 1982. The cloud line developed in an environment conducive to the production of low-reflectivity microbursts. Doppler radar analysis revealed strong convergence above cloud base into the region of downdraft 3.5 to 4.5 km above ground. Aircraft measurements detected light rain with graupel aloft in microburst downdrafts. A two-dimensional cloud model simulation captured many of the observed features of the cloud line structure and wind fields. In particular, both the development of multiple microbursts and the convergence aloft were well simulated. The formation of graupel/hail was important to the precipitation process in the model. The loading of rain and graupel and the cooling effect of rain evaporation and graupel melting were all important in microburst production—the graupel in the formative stages of the downdraft, and the rain in the further intensification of the downdraft and enhancement of the microburst outflow.

Abstract

Numerical simulations of a gravity current in an environment characterized by complex stratification and vertical wind shear have been performed using a nonhydrostatic, two-dimensional, dry, primitive-equation model. Data from one of the most complete documentations to date of gravity waves associated with a gravity current, presented in an earlier study, are used both to prescribe the gravity current's environment and for validation of the simulated gravity current and its associated gravity waves. These comparisons indicate that the gravity current observed by a Doppler wind profiler and sodars was well simulated in terms of depth, density contrast, and propagation speed and that the model produced a variety of gravity waves similar in many ways to these observed.

Because uncertainties remained concerning the gravity wave generation mechanisms derived from the observations (e.g., wavelengths were not observed), the validated simulations are used to test these tentative hypotheses. The simulations confirm that trapped lee-type gravity waves formed in response to flow over the head of the gravity current and that Kelvin-Helmholtz (KH) waves were created because of shear atop the cold air within the gravity current. The 2.8-km wavelength of the simulated KH waves agrees with the 2- to 3-km wavelength inferred from the observations. However, the 6.4-km wavelength of the simulated lee-type waves is significantly shorter than the 12.5-km wavelength inferred from the observational data, even though wave periods (20-23 minutes) are nearly identical. Sensitivity tests indicate that the curvature in the wind profile associated with the low-level opposing inflow and an elevated isothermal layer worked together to support the development of the trapped lee-type waves. The model produces a deep vertically propagating wave above the gravity current head that was not present in the observations. As deduced in the earlier study, sensitivity tests indicate that the prefrontal, near-surface stable layer was too shallow to support the generation of a bore; that is, conditions were supercritical. Synthesis of detailed observations and numerical simulations of these mesoscale phenomena thus offers the broadest examination possible of the complex physical processes.

Abstract

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) play an important role in modulating the global water cycle and energy balance and frequently generate high-impact weather events. The majority of existing literature studying MCS activity over East Asia is based on specific case studies and more climatological investigations revealing the precipitation characteristics of MCSs over eastern China are keenly needed. In this study, we use an iterative rain cell tracking method to identify and track MCS precipitation during 2008–16 to investigate regional differences and seasonal variations of MCS precipitation characteristics. Our results show that the middle-to-lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin (YRB-ML) receive the largest amount and exhibit the most pronounced seasonal cycle of MCS precipitation in eastern China. MCS precipitation over YRB-ML can exceed 2.6 mm day⁻¹ in June, contributing over 30.0% of April–July total rainfall. Particularly long-lived MCSs occur over the eastern periphery of the Tibetan Plateau (ETP), with 25% of MCSs over the ETP persisting for more than 18 h in spring. In addition, spring MCSs feature larger rainfall areas, longer durations, and faster propagation speeds. Summer MCSs have a higher precipitation intensity and a more pronounced diurnal cycle except for southeastern China, where MCSs have similar precipitation intensity in spring and summer. There is less MCS precipitation in autumn, but an MCS precipitation center over the ETP still persists. MCSs reach peak hourly rainfall intensities during the time of maximum growth (a few hours after genesis), reach their maximum size around 5 h after genesis, and start decaying thereafter.