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Anthony Arguez
,
Imke Durre
,
Scott Applequist
,
Russell S. Vose
,
Michael F. Squires
,
Xungang Yin
,
Richard R. Heim Jr.
, and
Timothy W. Owen

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released the 1981–2010 U.S. Climate Normals in July 2011, representing the latest decadal installment of this long-standing product line. Climatic averages (and other statistics) of temperature, precipitation, snowfall, and numerous derived quantities were calculated for ~9,800 stations operated by the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS). They include estimated normals, or “quasi normals,” for approximately 2,000 active short-record stations such as those in the U.S. Climate Reference Network. The 1981–2010 installment features several new products and methodological enhancements: 1) state-of-the-art temperature homogenization at the monthly scale, 2) extensive utilization of quality-controlled daily climate data, 3) new statistical approaches for calculating daily temperature normals and heating and cooling degree days, and 4) a comprehensive suite of precipitation, snowfall, and snow depth statistics. This paper provides a general overview of this new suite of climate normals products.

Full access
Boyin Huang
,
Peter W. Thorne
,
Viva F. Banzon
,
Tim Boyer
,
Gennady Chepurin
,
Jay H. Lawrimore
,
Matthew J. Menne
,
Thomas M. Smith
,
Russell S. Vose
, and
Huai-Min Zhang

Abstract

The monthly global 2° × 2° Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature (ERSST) has been revised and updated from version 4 to version 5. This update incorporates a new release of ICOADS release 3.0 (R3.0), a decade of near-surface data from Argo floats, and a new estimate of centennial sea ice from HadISST2. A number of choices in aspects of quality control, bias adjustment, and interpolation have been substantively revised. The resulting ERSST estimates have more realistic spatiotemporal variations, better representation of high-latitude SSTs, and ship SST biases are now calculated relative to more accurate buoy measurements, while the global long-term trend remains about the same. Progressive experiments have been undertaken to highlight the effects of each change in data source and analysis technique upon the final product. The reconstructed SST is systematically decreased by 0.077°C, as the reference data source is switched from ship SST in ERSSTv4 to modern buoy SST in ERSSTv5. Furthermore, high-latitude SSTs are decreased by 0.1°–0.2°C by using sea ice concentration from HadISST2 over HadISST1. Changes arising from remaining innovations are mostly important at small space and time scales, primarily having an impact where and when input observations are sparse. Cross validations and verifications with independent modern observations show that the updates incorporated in ERSSTv5 have improved the representation of spatial variability over the global oceans, the magnitude of El Niño and La Niña events, and the decadal nature of SST changes over 1930s–40s when observation instruments changed rapidly. Both long- (1900–2015) and short-term (2000–15) SST trends in ERSSTv5 remain significant as in ERSSTv4.

Full access
Joseph J. Barsugli
,
David R. Easterling
,
Derek S. Arndt
,
David A. Coates
,
Thomas L. Delworth
,
Martin P. Hoerling
,
Nathaniel Johnson
,
Sarah B. Kapnick
,
Arun Kumar
,
Kenneth E. Kunkel
,
Carl J. Schreck
,
Russell S. Vose
, and
Tao Zhang
Open access
Russell S. Vose
,
Derek Arndt
,
Viva F. Banzon
,
David R. Easterling
,
Byron Gleason
,
Boyin Huang
,
Ed Kearns
,
Jay H. Lawrimore
,
Matthew J. Menne
,
Thomas C. Peterson
,
Richard W. Reynolds
,
Thomas M. Smith
,
Claude N. Williams Jr.
, and
David B. Wuertz

This paper describes the new release of the Merged Land–Ocean Surface Temperature analysis (MLOST version 3.5), which is used in operational monitoring and climate assessment activities by the NOAA National Climatic Data Center. The primary motivation for the latest version is the inclusion of a new land dataset that has several major improvements, including a more elaborate approach for addressing changes in station location, instrumentation, and siting conditions. The new version is broadly consistent with previous global analyses, exhibiting a trend of 0.076°C decade−1 since 1901, 0.162°C decade−1 since 1979, and widespread warming in both time periods. In general, the new release exhibits only modest differences with its predecessor, the most obvious being very slightly more warming at the global scale (0.004°C decade−1 since 1901) and slightly different trend patterns over the terrestrial surface.

Full access
Lennart Bengtsson
,
Phil Arkin
,
Paul Berrisford
,
Philippe Bougeault
,
Chris K. Folland
,
Chris Gordon
,
Keith Haines
,
Kevin I. Hodges
,
Phil Jones
,
Per Kallberg
,
Nick Rayner
,
Adrian J. Simmons
,
Detlef Stammer
,
Peter W. Thorne
,
Sakari Uppala
, and
Russell S. Vose
Full access
Thomas C. Peterson
,
Richard R. Heim Jr.
,
Robert Hirsch
,
Dale P. Kaiser
,
Harold Brooks
,
Noah S. Diffenbaugh
,
Randall M. Dole
,
Jason P. Giovannettone
,
Kristen Guirguis
,
Thomas R. Karl
,
Richard W. Katz
,
Kenneth Kunkel
,
Dennis Lettenmaier
,
Gregory J. McCabe
,
Christopher J. Paciorek
,
Karen R. Ryberg
,
Siegfried Schubert
,
Viviane B. S. Silva
,
Brooke C. Stewart
,
Aldo V. Vecchia
,
Gabriele Villarini
,
Russell S. Vose
,
John Walsh
,
Michael Wehner
,
David Wolock
,
Klaus Wolter
,
Connie A. Woodhouse
, and
Donald Wuebbles

Weather and climate extremes have been varying and changing on many different time scales. In recent decades, heat waves have generally become more frequent across the United States, while cold waves have been decreasing. While this is in keeping with expectations in a warming climate, it turns out that decadal variations in the number of U.S. heat and cold waves do not correlate well with the observed U.S. warming during the last century. Annual peak flow data reveal that river flooding trends on the century scale do not show uniform changes across the country. While flood magnitudes in the Southwest have been decreasing, flood magnitudes in the Northeast and north-central United States have been increasing. Confounding the analysis of trends in river flooding is multiyear and even multidecadal variability likely caused by both large-scale atmospheric circulation changes and basin-scale “memory” in the form of soil moisture. Droughts also have long-term trends as well as multiyear and decadal variability. Instrumental data indicate that the Dust Bowl of the 1930s and the drought in the 1950s were the most significant twentieth-century droughts in the United States, while tree ring data indicate that the megadroughts over the twelfth century exceeded anything in the twentieth century in both spatial extent and duration. The state of knowledge of the factors that cause heat waves, cold waves, floods, and drought to change is fairly good with heat waves being the best understood.

Full access
Russell S. Vose
,
Scott Applequist
,
Mark A. Bourassa
,
Sara C. Pryor
,
Rebecca J. Barthelmie
,
Brian Blanton
,
Peter D. Bromirski
,
Harold E. Brooks
,
Arthur T. DeGaetano
,
Randall M. Dole
,
David R. Easterling
,
Robert E. Jensen
,
Thomas R. Karl
,
Richard W. Katz
,
Katherine Klink
,
Michael C. Kruk
,
Kenneth E. Kunkel
,
Michael C. MacCracken
,
Thomas C. Peterson
,
Karsten Shein
,
Bridget R. Thomas
,
John E. Walsh
,
Xiaolan L. Wang
,
Michael F. Wehner
,
Donald J. Wuebbles
, and
Robert S. Young

This scientific assessment examines changes in three climate extremes—extratropical storms, winds, and waves—with an emphasis on U.S. coastal regions during the cold season. There is moderate evidence of an increase in both extratropical storm frequency and intensity during the cold season in the Northern Hemisphere since 1950, with suggestive evidence of geographic shifts resulting in slight upward trends in offshore/coastal regions. There is also suggestive evidence of an increase in extreme winds (at least annually) over parts of the ocean since the early to mid-1980s, but the evidence over the U.S. land surface is inconclusive. Finally, there is moderate evidence of an increase in extreme waves in winter along the Pacific coast since the 1950s, but along other U.S. shorelines any tendencies are of modest magnitude compared with historical variability. The data for extratropical cyclones are considered to be of relatively high quality for trend detection, whereas the data for extreme winds and waves are judged to be of intermediate quality. In terms of physical causes leading to multidecadal changes, the level of understanding for both extratropical storms and extreme winds is considered to be relatively low, while that for extreme waves is judged to be intermediate. Since the ability to measure these changes with some confidence is relatively recent, understanding is expected to improve in the future for a variety of reasons, including increased periods of record and the development of “climate reanalysis” projects.

Full access
Robert J. H. Dunn
,
F. Aldred
,
Nadine Gobron
,
John B. Miller
,
Kate M. Willett
,
M. Ades
,
Robert Adler
,
Richard, P. Allan
,
Rob Allan
,
J. Anderson
,
Anthony Argüez
,
C. Arosio
,
John A. Augustine
,
C. Azorin-Molina
,
J. Barichivich
,
H. E. Beck
,
Andreas Becker
,
Nicolas Bellouin
,
Angela Benedetti
,
David I. Berry
,
Stephen Blenkinsop
,
Olivier Bock
,
X. Bodin
,
Michael G. Bosilovich
,
Olivier Boucher
,
S. A. Buehler
,
B. Calmettes
,
Laura Carrea
,
Laura Castia
,
Hanne H. Christiansen
,
John R. Christy
,
E.-S. Chung
,
Melanie Coldewey-Egbers
,
Owen R. Cooper
,
Richard C. Cornes
,
Curt Covey
,
J.-F. Cretaux
,
M. Crotwell
,
Sean M. Davis
,
Richard A. M. de Jeu
,
Doug Degenstein
,
R. Delaloye
,
Larry Di Girolamo
,
Markus G. Donat
,
Wouter A. Dorigo
,
Imke Durre
,
Geoff S. Dutton
,
Gregory Duveiller
,
James W. Elkins
,
Vitali E. Fioletov
,
Johannes Flemming
,
Michael J. Foster
,
Stacey M. Frith
,
Lucien Froidevaux
,
J. Garforth
,
Matthew Gentry
,
S. K. Gupta
,
S. Hahn
,
Leopold Haimberger
,
Brad D. Hall
,
Ian Harris
,
D. L. Hemming
,
M. Hirschi
,
Shu-pen (Ben) Ho
,
F. Hrbacek
,
Daan Hubert
,
Dale F. Hurst
,
Antje Inness
,
K. Isaksen
,
Viju O. John
,
Philip D. Jones
,
Robert Junod
,
J. W. Kaiser
,
V. Kaufmann
,
A. Kellerer-Pirklbauer
,
Elizabeth C. Kent
,
R. Kidd
,
Hyungjun Kim
,
Z. Kipling
,
A. Koppa
,
B. M. Kraemer
,
D. P. Kratz
,
Xin Lan
,
Kathleen O. Lantz
,
D. Lavers
,
Norman G. Loeb
,
Diego Loyola
,
R. Madelon
,
Michael Mayer
,
M. F. McCabe
,
Tim R. McVicar
,
Carl A. Mears
,
Christopher J. Merchant
,
Diego G. Miralles
,
L. Moesinger
,
Stephen A. Montzka
,
Colin Morice
,
L. Mösinger
,
Jens Mühle
,
Julien P. Nicolas
,
Jeannette Noetzli
,
Ben Noll
,
J. O’Keefe
,
Tim J. Osborn
,
T. Park
,
A. J. Pasik
,
C. Pellet
,
Maury S. Pelto
,
S. E. Perkins-Kirkpatrick
,
G. Petron
,
Coda Phillips
,
S. Po-Chedley
,
L. Polvani
,
W. Preimesberger
,
D. G. Rains
,
W. J. Randel
,
Nick A. Rayner
,
Samuel Rémy
,
L. Ricciardulli
,
A. D. Richardson
,
David A. Robinson
,
Matthew Rodell
,
N. J. Rodríguez-Fernández
,
K.H. Rosenlof
,
C. Roth
,
A. Rozanov
,
T. Rutishäuser
,
Ahira Sánchez-Lugo
,
P. Sawaengphokhai
,
T. Scanlon
,
Verena Schenzinger
,
R. W. Schlegel
,
S. Sharma
,
Lei Shi
,
Adrian J. Simmons
,
Carolina Siso
,
Sharon L. Smith
,
B. J. Soden
,
Viktoria Sofieva
,
T. H. Sparks
,
Paul W. Stackhouse Jr.
,
Wolfgang Steinbrecht
,
Martin Stengel
,
Dimitri A. Streletskiy
,
Sunny Sun-Mack
,
P. Tans
,
S. J. Thackeray
,
E. Thibert
,
D. Tokuda
,
Kleareti Tourpali
,
Mari R. Tye
,
Ronald van der A
,
Robin van der Schalie
,
Gerard van der Schrier
,
M. van der Vliet
,
Guido R. van der Werf
,
A. Vance
,
Jean-Paul Vernier
,
Isaac J. Vimont
,
Holger Vömel
,
Russell S. Vose
,
Ray Wang
,
Markus Weber
,
David Wiese
,
Anne C. Wilber
,
Jeanette D. Wild
,
Takmeng Wong
,
R. Iestyn Woolway
,
Xinjia Zhou
,
Xungang Yin
,
Guangyu Zhao
,
Lin Zhao
,
Jerry R. Ziemke
,
Markus Ziese
, and
R. M. Zotta
Free access
M. Ades
,
R. Adler
,
Rob Allan
,
R. P. Allan
,
J. Anderson
,
Anthony Argüez
,
C. Arosio
,
J. A. Augustine
,
C. Azorin-Molina
,
J. Barichivich
,
J. Barnes
,
H. E. Beck
,
Andreas Becker
,
Nicolas Bellouin
,
Angela Benedetti
,
David I. Berry
,
Stephen Blenkinsop
,
Olivier. Bock
,
Michael G. Bosilovich
,
Olivier. Boucher
,
S. A. Buehler
,
Laura. Carrea
,
Hanne H. Christiansen
,
F. Chouza
,
John R. Christy
,
E.-S. Chung
,
Melanie Coldewey-Egbers
,
Gil P. Compo
,
Owen R. Cooper
,
Curt Covey
,
A. Crotwell
,
Sean M. Davis
,
Elvira de Eyto
,
Richard A. M de Jeu
,
B.V. VanderSat
,
Curtis L. DeGasperi
,
Doug Degenstein
,
Larry Di Girolamo
,
Martin T. Dokulil
,
Markus G. Donat
,
Wouter A. Dorigo
,
Imke Durre
,
Geoff S. Dutton
,
G. Duveiller
,
James W. Elkins
,
Vitali E. Fioletov
,
Johannes Flemming
,
Michael J. Foster
,
Richard A. Frey
,
Stacey M. Frith
,
Lucien Froidevaux
,
J. Garforth
,
S. K. Gupta
,
Leopold Haimberger
,
Brad D. Hall
,
Ian Harris
,
Andrew K Heidinger
,
D. L. Hemming
,
Shu-peng (Ben) Ho
,
Daan Hubert
,
Dale F. Hurst
,
I. Hüser
,
Antje Inness
,
K. Isaksen
,
Viju John
,
Philip D. Jones
,
J. W. Kaiser
,
S. Kelly
,
S. Khaykin
,
R. Kidd
,
Hyungiun Kim
,
Z. Kipling
,
B. M. Kraemer
,
D. P. Kratz
,
R. S. La Fuente
,
Xin Lan
,
Kathleen O. Lantz
,
T. Leblanc
,
Bailing Li
,
Norman G Loeb
,
Craig S. Long
,
Diego Loyola
,
Wlodzimierz Marszelewski
,
B. Martens
,
Linda May
,
Michael Mayer
,
M. F. McCabe
,
Tim R. McVicar
,
Carl A. Mears
,
W. Paul Menzel
,
Christopher J. Merchant
,
Ben R. Miller
,
Diego G. Miralles
,
Stephen A. Montzka
,
Colin Morice
,
Jens Mühle
,
R. Myneni
,
Julien P. Nicolas
,
Jeannette Noetzli
,
Tim J. Osborn
,
T. Park
,
A. Pasik
,
Andrew M. Paterson
,
Mauri S. Pelto
,
S. Perkins-Kirkpatrick
,
G. Pétron
,
C. Phillips
,
Bernard Pinty
,
S. Po-Chedley
,
L. Polvani
,
W. Preimesberger
,
M. Pulkkanen
,
W. J. Randel
,
Samuel Rémy
,
L. Ricciardulli
,
A. D. Richardson
,
L. Rieger
,
David A. Robinson
,
Matthew Rodell
,
Karen H. Rosenlof
,
Chris Roth
,
A. Rozanov
,
James A. Rusak
,
O. Rusanovskaya
,
T. Rutishäuser
,
Ahira Sánchez-Lugo
,
P. Sawaengphokhai
,
T. Scanlon
,
Verena Schenzinger
,
S. Geoffey Schladow
,
R. W Schlegel
,
Eawag Schmid, Martin
,
H. B. Selkirk
,
S. Sharma
,
Lei Shi
,
S. V. Shimaraeva
,
E. A. Silow
,
Adrian J. Simmons
,
C. A. Smith
,
Sharon L Smith
,
B. J. Soden
,
Viktoria Sofieva
,
T. H. Sparks
,
Paul W. Stackhouse Jr.
,
Wolfgang Steinbrecht
,
Dimitri A. Streletskiy
,
G. Taha
,
Hagen Telg
,
S. J. Thackeray
,
M. A. Timofeyev
,
Kleareti Tourpali
,
Mari R. Tye
,
Ronald J. van der A
,
Robin, VanderSat B.V. van der Schalie
,
Gerard van der SchrierW. Paul
,
Guido R. van der Werf
,
Piet Verburg
,
Jean-Paul Vernier
,
Holger Vömel
,
Russell S. Vose
,
Ray Wang
,
Shohei G. Watanabe
,
Mark Weber
,
Gesa A. Weyhenmeyer
,
David Wiese
,
Anne C. Wilber
,
Jeanette D. Wild
,
Takmeng Wong
,
R. Iestyn Woolway
,
Xungang Yin
,
Lin Zhao
,
Guanguo Zhao
,
Xinjia Zhou
,
Jerry R. Ziemke
, and
Markus Ziese
Free access
Robert J. H. Dunn
,
Freya Aldred
,
Nadine Gobron
,
John B. Miller
,
Kate M. Willett
,
Melanie Ades
,
Robert Adler
,
R. P. Allan
,
John Anderson
,
Orlane Anneville
,
Yasuyuki Aono
,
Anthony Argüez
,
Carlo Arosio
,
John A. Augustine
,
Cesar Azorin-Molina
,
Jonathan Barichivich
,
Aman Basu
,
Hylke E. Beck
,
Nicolas Bellouin
,
Angela Benedetti
,
Kevin Blagrave
,
Stephen Blenkinsop
,
Olivier Bock
,
Xavier Bodin
,
Michael G. Bosilovich
,
Olivier Boucher
,
Gerald Bove
,
Dennis Buechler
,
Stefan A. Buehler
,
Laura Carrea
,
Kai-Lan Chang
,
Hanne H. Christiansen
,
John R. Christy
,
Eui-Seok Chung
,
Laura M. Ciasto
,
Melanie Coldewey-Egbers
,
Owen R. Cooper
,
Richard C. Cornes
,
Curt Covey
,
Thomas Cropper
,
Molly Crotwell
,
Diego Cusicanqui
,
Sean M. Davis
,
Richard A. M. de Jeu
,
Doug Degenstein
,
Reynald Delaloye
,
Markus G. Donat
,
Wouter A. Dorigo
,
Imke Durre
,
Geoff S. Dutton
,
Gregory Duveiller
,
James W. Elkins
,
Thomas W. Estilow
,
Nava Fedaeff
,
David Fereday
,
Vitali E. Fioletov
,
Johannes Flemming
,
Michael J. Foster
,
Stacey M. Frith
,
Lucien Froidevaux
,
Martin Füllekrug
,
Judith Garforth
,
Jay Garg
,
Matthew Gentry
,
Steven Goodman
,
Qiqi Gou
,
Nikolay Granin
,
Mauro Guglielmin
,
Sebastian Hahn
,
Leopold Haimberger
,
Brad D. Hall
,
Ian Harris
,
Debbie L. Hemming
,
Martin Hirschi
,
Shu-pen (Ben) Ho
,
Robert Holzworth
,
Filip Hrbáček
,
Daan Hubert
,
Petra Hulsman
,
Dale F. Hurst
,
Antje Inness
,
Ketil Isaksen
,
Viju O. John
,
Philip D. Jones
,
Robert Junod
,
Andreas Kääb
,
Johannes W. Kaiser
,
Viktor Kaufmann
,
Andreas Kellerer-Pirklbauer
,
Elizabeth C. Kent
,
Richard Kidd
,
Hyungiun Kim
,
Zak Kipling
,
Akash Koppa
,
Jan Henning L’Abée-Lund
,
Xin Lan
,
Kathleen O. Lantz
,
David Lavers
,
Norman G. Loeb
,
Diego Loyola
,
Remi Madelon
,
Hilmar J. Malmquist
,
Wlodzimierz Marszelewski
,
Michael Mayer
,
Matthew F. McCabe
,
Tim R. McVicar
,
Carl A. Mears
,
Annette Menzel
,
Christopher J. Merchant
,
Diego G. Miralles
,
Stephen A. Montzka
,
Colin Morice
,
Leander Mösinger
,
Jens Mühle
,
Julien P. Nicolas
,
Jeannette Noetzli
,
Tiina Nõges
,
Ben Noll
,
John O’Keefe
,
Tim J. Osborn
,
Taejin Park
,
Cecile Pellet
,
Maury S. Pelto
,
Sarah E. Perkins-Kirkpatrick
,
Coda Phillips
,
Stephen Po-Chedley
,
Lorenzo Polvani
,
Wolfgang Preimesberger
,
Colin Price
,
Merja Pulkkanen
,
Dominik G. Rains
,
William J. Randel
,
Samuel Rémy
,
Lucrezia Ricciardulli
,
Andrew D. Richardson
,
David A. Robinson
,
Matthew Rodell
,
Nemesio J. Rodríguez-Fernández
,
Karen H. Rosenlof
,
Chris Roth
,
Alexei Rozanov
,
This Rutishäuser
,
Ahira Sánchez-Lugo
,
Parnchai Sawaengphokhai
,
Verena Schenzinger
,
Robert W. Schlegel
,
Udo Schneider
,
Sapna Sharma
,
Lei Shi
,
Adrian J. Simmons
,
Carolina Siso
,
Sharon L. Smith
,
Brian J. Soden
,
Viktoria Sofieva
,
Tim H. Sparks
,
Paul W. Stackhouse Jr.
,
Ryan Stauffer
,
Wolfgang Steinbrecht
,
Andrea K. Steiner
,
Kenton Stewart
,
Pietro Stradiotti
,
Dimitri A. Streletskiy
,
Hagen Telg
,
Stephen J. Thackeray
,
Emmanuel Thibert
,
Michael Todt
,
Daisuke Tokuda
,
Kleareti Tourpali
,
Mari R. Tye
,
Ronald van der A
,
Robin van der Schalie
,
Gerard van der Schrier
,
Mendy van der Vliet
,
Guido R. van der Werf
,
Arnold. van Vliet
,
Jean-Paul Vernier
,
Isaac J. Vimont
,
Katrina Virts
,
Sebastiàn Vivero
,
Holger Vömel
,
Russell S. Vose
,
Ray H. J. Wang
,
Markus Weber
,
David Wiese
,
Jeanette D. Wild
,
Earle Williams
,
Takmeng Wong
,
R. I. Woolway
,
Xungang Yin
,
Ye Yuan
,
Lin Zhao
,
Xinjia Zhou
,
Jerry R. Ziemke
,
Markus Ziese
, and
Ruxandra M. Zotta
Free access