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Abstract
Cumulus formation and convection initiation are examined near a cold front–dryline “triple point” intersection on 24 May 2002 during the International H2O Project (IHOP). A new Lagrangian objective analysis technique assimilates in situ measurements using time-dependent Doppler-derived 3D wind fields, providing output 3D fields of water vapor mixing ratio, virtual potential temperature, and lifted condensation level (LCL) and water-saturated (i.e., cloud) volumes on a subdomain of the radar analysis grid. The radar and Lagrangian analyses reveal the presence of along-wind (i.e., longitudinal) and cross-wind (i.e., transverse) roll circulations in the boundary layer (BL). A remarkable finding of the evolving radar analyses is the apparent persistence of both transverse rolls and individual updraft, vertical vorticity, and reflectivity cores for periods of up to 30 min or more while moving approximately with the local BL wind. Satellite cloud images and single-camera ground photogrammetry imply that clouds tend to develop either over or on the downwind edge of BL updrafts, with a tendency for clouds to elongate and dissipate in the downwind direction relative to cloud layer winds due to weakening updrafts and mixing with drier overlying air. The Lagrangian and radar wind analyses support a parcel continuity principle for cumulus formation, which requires that rising moist air parcels achieve their LCL before moving laterally out of the updraft. Cumuli form within penetrative updrafts in the elevated residual layer (ERL) overlying the moist BL east of the triple point, but remain capped by a convection inhibition (CIN)-bearing layer above the ERL. Dropsonde data suggest the existence of a convergence line about 80 km east of the triple point where deep lifting of BL moisture and locally reduced CIN together support convection initiation.
Abstract
Cumulus formation and convection initiation are examined near a cold front–dryline “triple point” intersection on 24 May 2002 during the International H2O Project (IHOP). A new Lagrangian objective analysis technique assimilates in situ measurements using time-dependent Doppler-derived 3D wind fields, providing output 3D fields of water vapor mixing ratio, virtual potential temperature, and lifted condensation level (LCL) and water-saturated (i.e., cloud) volumes on a subdomain of the radar analysis grid. The radar and Lagrangian analyses reveal the presence of along-wind (i.e., longitudinal) and cross-wind (i.e., transverse) roll circulations in the boundary layer (BL). A remarkable finding of the evolving radar analyses is the apparent persistence of both transverse rolls and individual updraft, vertical vorticity, and reflectivity cores for periods of up to 30 min or more while moving approximately with the local BL wind. Satellite cloud images and single-camera ground photogrammetry imply that clouds tend to develop either over or on the downwind edge of BL updrafts, with a tendency for clouds to elongate and dissipate in the downwind direction relative to cloud layer winds due to weakening updrafts and mixing with drier overlying air. The Lagrangian and radar wind analyses support a parcel continuity principle for cumulus formation, which requires that rising moist air parcels achieve their LCL before moving laterally out of the updraft. Cumuli form within penetrative updrafts in the elevated residual layer (ERL) overlying the moist BL east of the triple point, but remain capped by a convection inhibition (CIN)-bearing layer above the ERL. Dropsonde data suggest the existence of a convergence line about 80 km east of the triple point where deep lifting of BL moisture and locally reduced CIN together support convection initiation.
Multivariate Data Assimilation at a Partially Mixed EstuaryAbstract
In 2013 and 2014, multiple field excursions of varying scope were concentrated on the Columbia River, a highly energetic, partially mixed estuary. These experiments included surface drifter and synthetic aperture radar (SAR) measurements during the ONR RIVET-II experiment, and a novel animal tracking effort that samples oceanographic data by employing cormorants tagged with biologging devices. In the present work, several different data types from these experiments were combined in order to test an iterative, ensemble-based inversion methodology at the mouth of the Columbia River (MCR). Results show that, despite inherent limitations of observation and model accuracy, it is possible to detect dynamically relevant bathymetric features such as large shoals and channels while originating from a linear, featureless prior bathymetry in a partially mixed estuary by inverting surface current and gravity wave observations with a 3D hydrostatic ocean model. Bathymetry estimation skill depends on two factors: location (i.e., differing estimation quality inside versus outside the MCR) and observation type (e.g., surface currents versus significant wave height). Despite not being inverted directly, temperature and salinity outputs in the hydrodynamic model improved agreement with observations after bathymetry inversion.
Abstract
In 2013 and 2014, multiple field excursions of varying scope were concentrated on the Columbia River, a highly energetic, partially mixed estuary. These experiments included surface drifter and synthetic aperture radar (SAR) measurements during the ONR RIVET-II experiment, and a novel animal tracking effort that samples oceanographic data by employing cormorants tagged with biologging devices. In the present work, several different data types from these experiments were combined in order to test an iterative, ensemble-based inversion methodology at the mouth of the Columbia River (MCR). Results show that, despite inherent limitations of observation and model accuracy, it is possible to detect dynamically relevant bathymetric features such as large shoals and channels while originating from a linear, featureless prior bathymetry in a partially mixed estuary by inverting surface current and gravity wave observations with a 3D hydrostatic ocean model. Bathymetry estimation skill depends on two factors: location (i.e., differing estimation quality inside versus outside the MCR) and observation type (e.g., surface currents versus significant wave height). Despite not being inverted directly, temperature and salinity outputs in the hydrodynamic model improved agreement with observations after bathymetry inversion.
Abstract
Observations collected in the second Verification of the Origins of Rotation in Tornadoes Experiment during a 15-min period of a supercell occurring on 18 May 2010 near Dumas, Texas, are presented. The primary data collection platforms include two Ka-band mobile Doppler radars, which collected a near-surface, short-baseline dual-Doppler dataset within the rear-flank outflow of the Dumas supercell; an X-band, phased-array mobile Doppler radar, which collected volumetric single-Doppler data with high temporal resolution; and in situ thermodynamic and wind observations of a six-probe mobile mesonet.
Rapid evolution of the Dumas supercell was observed, including the development and decay of a low-level mesocyclone and four internal rear-flank downdraft (RFD) momentum surges. Intensification and upward growth of the low-level mesocyclone were observed during periods when the midlevel mesocyclone was minimally displaced from the low-level circulation, suggesting an upward-directed perturbation pressure gradient force aided in the intensification of low-level rotation. The final three internal RFD momentum surges evolved in a manner consistent with the expected behavior of a dynamically forced occlusion downdraft, developing at the periphery of the low-level mesocyclone during periods when values of low-level cyclonic azimuthal wind shear exceeded values higher aloft. Failure of the low-level mesocyclone to acquire significant vertical depth suggests that dynamic forcing above internal RFD momentum surge gust fronts was insufficient to lift the negatively buoyant air parcels comprising the RFD surges to significant heights. As a result, vertical acceleration and the stretching of vertical vorticity in surge parcels were limited, which likely contributed to tornadogenesis failure.
Abstract
Observations collected in the second Verification of the Origins of Rotation in Tornadoes Experiment during a 15-min period of a supercell occurring on 18 May 2010 near Dumas, Texas, are presented. The primary data collection platforms include two Ka-band mobile Doppler radars, which collected a near-surface, short-baseline dual-Doppler dataset within the rear-flank outflow of the Dumas supercell; an X-band, phased-array mobile Doppler radar, which collected volumetric single-Doppler data with high temporal resolution; and in situ thermodynamic and wind observations of a six-probe mobile mesonet.
Rapid evolution of the Dumas supercell was observed, including the development and decay of a low-level mesocyclone and four internal rear-flank downdraft (RFD) momentum surges. Intensification and upward growth of the low-level mesocyclone were observed during periods when the midlevel mesocyclone was minimally displaced from the low-level circulation, suggesting an upward-directed perturbation pressure gradient force aided in the intensification of low-level rotation. The final three internal RFD momentum surges evolved in a manner consistent with the expected behavior of a dynamically forced occlusion downdraft, developing at the periphery of the low-level mesocyclone during periods when values of low-level cyclonic azimuthal wind shear exceeded values higher aloft. Failure of the low-level mesocyclone to acquire significant vertical depth suggests that dynamic forcing above internal RFD momentum surge gust fronts was insufficient to lift the negatively buoyant air parcels comprising the RFD surges to significant heights. As a result, vertical acceleration and the stretching of vertical vorticity in surge parcels were limited, which likely contributed to tornadogenesis failure.
Abstract
Observations obtained during the second Verification of the Origin of Rotation in Tornadoes Experiment (VORTEX2) are analyzed for three supercell intercepts. These intercepts used a fleet of deployable “StickNet” probes, complemented by mobile radars and a mobile mesonet, to map state quantities over the expanse of target storms.
Two of the deployments occurred for different stages of a supercell storm near and east of Dumas, Texas, on 18 May 2010. A comparison of the thermodynamic and kinematic characteristics of the storm provides a possible explanation for why one phase was weakly tornadic and the other nontornadic. The weakly tornadic phase features a stronger horizontal virtual temperature gradient antiparallel to the forward-flank reflectivity gradient and perpendicular to the near-surface flow direction, suggesting that air parcels could acquire more significant baroclinic vorticity as they approach the low-level mesocyclone.
The strongly tornadic 10 May 2010 case near Seminole, Oklahoma, features comparatively small virtual and equivalent potential temperature deficits, suggesting the strength of baroclinic zones may be less useful than the buoyancy near the mesocyclone for assessing tornado potential. The distribution of positive pressure perturbations and backed ground-relative winds within the forward flank are consistent with the notion of a “starburst” pattern of diverging winds associated with the forward-flank downdraft.
Narrow (~1 km wide) zones of intense baroclinic vorticity generation of O(~10−4) s−2 are shown to exist within precipitation on the forward and left sides of the mesocyclone in the Dumas intercepts, not dissimilar from such zones identified in recent high-resolution numerical studies.
Abstract
Observations obtained during the second Verification of the Origin of Rotation in Tornadoes Experiment (VORTEX2) are analyzed for three supercell intercepts. These intercepts used a fleet of deployable “StickNet” probes, complemented by mobile radars and a mobile mesonet, to map state quantities over the expanse of target storms.
Two of the deployments occurred for different stages of a supercell storm near and east of Dumas, Texas, on 18 May 2010. A comparison of the thermodynamic and kinematic characteristics of the storm provides a possible explanation for why one phase was weakly tornadic and the other nontornadic. The weakly tornadic phase features a stronger horizontal virtual temperature gradient antiparallel to the forward-flank reflectivity gradient and perpendicular to the near-surface flow direction, suggesting that air parcels could acquire more significant baroclinic vorticity as they approach the low-level mesocyclone.
The strongly tornadic 10 May 2010 case near Seminole, Oklahoma, features comparatively small virtual and equivalent potential temperature deficits, suggesting the strength of baroclinic zones may be less useful than the buoyancy near the mesocyclone for assessing tornado potential. The distribution of positive pressure perturbations and backed ground-relative winds within the forward flank are consistent with the notion of a “starburst” pattern of diverging winds associated with the forward-flank downdraft.
Narrow (~1 km wide) zones of intense baroclinic vorticity generation of O(~10−4) s−2 are shown to exist within precipitation on the forward and left sides of the mesocyclone in the Dumas intercepts, not dissimilar from such zones identified in recent high-resolution numerical studies.
Abstract
Despite common background La Niña conditions, Australia was very dry in November 2020 and wet in November 2021. This paper aims to provide an explanation for this difference. Large-scale drivers of Australian rainfall, including El Niño–Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean dipole, Southern Annular Mode, and Madden–Julian oscillation, were examined but did not provide obvious clues for the differences. We found that the absence (in 2020) or presence (in 2021) of an enhanced thermal wind and subtropical jet over the Australian continent contributed to the rainfall anomalies. In general, La Niña sets up warm sea surface temperatures around northern Australia, which enhances the meridional temperature gradient over the continent and hence thermal wind and subtropical jet. In November 2021, these warm sea surface temperatures, coupled with a persistent midlatitude trough, which advected cold air over the Australian continent, led to an enhanced meridional temperature gradient and subtropical jet over Australia. The enhanced jet provided favorable conditions for the development of rain-bearing weather systems across Australia. In 2020, the continent was warm, displacing the latitude of maximum meridional temperature gradient south of the continent, resulting in fewer instances of the subtropical jet over Australia, and little development of weather systems over the continent. We highlight that although La Niña tilts the odds to wetter conditions for Australia, in any given month, variability in temperatures over the continent can contribute to subtropical jet variability and resulting rainfall in ways which confound the normal expectation from La Niña.
Significance Statement
Forecasts of El Niño–Southern Oscillation are eagerly awaited, as the state of this climate driver has profound impacts on the likelihood of rainfall in regions around the world. While El Niño and La Niña do change rainfall likelihoods, the actual outcomes of these events are sometimes counter to expectation. This work explores one of the confounding factors to those expectations in the Australian context—the role of the meridional temperature gradient over the continent in modifying the storm track over Australia, which can disrupt the expected El Niño and La Niña teleconnections. We present case studies for two La Niña springs, highlighting that the Australian continent can help shape its own weather toward wetter or drier outcomes.
Abstract
Despite common background La Niña conditions, Australia was very dry in November 2020 and wet in November 2021. This paper aims to provide an explanation for this difference. Large-scale drivers of Australian rainfall, including El Niño–Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean dipole, Southern Annular Mode, and Madden–Julian oscillation, were examined but did not provide obvious clues for the differences. We found that the absence (in 2020) or presence (in 2021) of an enhanced thermal wind and subtropical jet over the Australian continent contributed to the rainfall anomalies. In general, La Niña sets up warm sea surface temperatures around northern Australia, which enhances the meridional temperature gradient over the continent and hence thermal wind and subtropical jet. In November 2021, these warm sea surface temperatures, coupled with a persistent midlatitude trough, which advected cold air over the Australian continent, led to an enhanced meridional temperature gradient and subtropical jet over Australia. The enhanced jet provided favorable conditions for the development of rain-bearing weather systems across Australia. In 2020, the continent was warm, displacing the latitude of maximum meridional temperature gradient south of the continent, resulting in fewer instances of the subtropical jet over Australia, and little development of weather systems over the continent. We highlight that although La Niña tilts the odds to wetter conditions for Australia, in any given month, variability in temperatures over the continent can contribute to subtropical jet variability and resulting rainfall in ways which confound the normal expectation from La Niña.
Significance Statement
Forecasts of El Niño–Southern Oscillation are eagerly awaited, as the state of this climate driver has profound impacts on the likelihood of rainfall in regions around the world. While El Niño and La Niña do change rainfall likelihoods, the actual outcomes of these events are sometimes counter to expectation. This work explores one of the confounding factors to those expectations in the Australian context—the role of the meridional temperature gradient over the continent in modifying the storm track over Australia, which can disrupt the expected El Niño and La Niña teleconnections. We present case studies for two La Niña springs, highlighting that the Australian continent can help shape its own weather toward wetter or drier outcomes.
Abstract
A key aim of observational campaigns is to sample atmosphere–ocean phenomena to improve understanding of these phenomena, and in turn, numerical weather prediction. In early 2018 and 2019, the Atmospheric River Reconnaissance (AR Recon) campaign released dropsondes and radiosondes into atmospheric rivers (ARs) over the northeast Pacific Ocean to collect unique observations of temperature, winds, and moisture in ARs. These narrow regions of water vapor transport in the atmosphere—like rivers in the sky—can be associated with extreme precipitation and flooding events in the midlatitudes. This study uses the dropsonde observations collected during the AR Recon campaign and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) to evaluate forecasts of ARs. Results show that ECMWF IFS forecasts 1) were colder than observations by up to 0.6 K throughout the troposphere; 2) have a dry bias in the lower troposphere, which along with weaker winds below 950 hPa, resulted in weaker horizontal water vapor fluxes in the 950–1000-hPa layer; and 3) exhibit an underdispersiveness in the water vapor flux that largely arises from model representativeness errors associated with dropsondes. Four U.S. West Coast radiosonde sites confirm the IFS cold bias throughout winter. These issues are likely to affect the model’s hydrological cycle and hence precipitation forecasts.
Abstract
A key aim of observational campaigns is to sample atmosphere–ocean phenomena to improve understanding of these phenomena, and in turn, numerical weather prediction. In early 2018 and 2019, the Atmospheric River Reconnaissance (AR Recon) campaign released dropsondes and radiosondes into atmospheric rivers (ARs) over the northeast Pacific Ocean to collect unique observations of temperature, winds, and moisture in ARs. These narrow regions of water vapor transport in the atmosphere—like rivers in the sky—can be associated with extreme precipitation and flooding events in the midlatitudes. This study uses the dropsonde observations collected during the AR Recon campaign and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) to evaluate forecasts of ARs. Results show that ECMWF IFS forecasts 1) were colder than observations by up to 0.6 K throughout the troposphere; 2) have a dry bias in the lower troposphere, which along with weaker winds below 950 hPa, resulted in weaker horizontal water vapor fluxes in the 950–1000-hPa layer; and 3) exhibit an underdispersiveness in the water vapor flux that largely arises from model representativeness errors associated with dropsondes. Four U.S. West Coast radiosonde sites confirm the IFS cold bias throughout winter. These issues are likely to affect the model’s hydrological cycle and hence precipitation forecasts.
The Arm Program's Water Vapor Intensive Observation Periods
Overview, Initial Accomplishments, and Future Challenges
A series of water vapor intensive observation periods (WVIOPs) were conducted at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) site in Oklahoma between 1996 and 2000. The goals of these WVIOPs are to characterize the accuracy of the operational water vapor observations and to develop techniques to improve the accuracy of these measurements.
The initial focus of these experiments was on the lower atmosphere, for which the goal is an absolute accuracy of better than 2% in total column water vapor, corresponding to ~1 W m−2 of infrared radiation at the surface. To complement the operational water vapor instruments during the WVIOPs, additional instrumentation including a scanning Raman lidar, microwave radiometers, chilled-mirror hygrometers, a differential absorption lidar, and ground-based solar radiometers were deployed at the ARM site. The unique datasets from the 1996, 1997, and 1999 experiments have led to many results, including the discovery and characterization of a large (> 25%) sonde-to-sonde variability in the water vapor profiles from Vaisala RS-80H radiosondes that acts like a height-independent calibration factor error. However, the microwave observations provide a stable reference that can be used to remove a large part of the sonde-to-sonde calibration variability. In situ capacitive water vapor sensors demonstrated agreement within 2% of chilled-mirror hygrometers at the surface and on an instrumented tower. Water vapor profiles retrieved from two Raman lidars, which have both been calibrated to the ARM microwave radiometer, showed agreement to within 5% for all altitudes below 8 km during two WVIOPs. The mean agreement of the total precipitable water vapor from different techniques has converged significantly from early analysis that originally showed differences up to 15%. Retrievals of total precipitable water vapor (PWV) from the ARM microwave radiometer are now found to be only 3% moister than PWV derived from new GPS results, and about 2% drier than the mean of radiosonde data after a recently defined sonde dry-bias correction is applied. Raman lidar profiles calibrated using tower-mounted chilled-mirror hygrometers confirm the expected sensitivity of microwave radiometer data to water vapor changes, but it is drier than the microwave radiometer (MWR) by 0.95 mm for all PWV amounts. However, observations from different collocated microwave radiometers have shown larger differences than expected and attempts to resolve the remaining inconsistencies (in both calibration and forward modeling) are continuing.
The paper concludes by outlining the objectives of the recent 2000 WVIOP and the ARM–First International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) Regional Experiment (FIRE) Water Vapor Experiment (AFWEX), the latter of which switched the focus to characterizing upper-tropospheric humidity measurements.
A series of water vapor intensive observation periods (WVIOPs) were conducted at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) site in Oklahoma between 1996 and 2000. The goals of these WVIOPs are to characterize the accuracy of the operational water vapor observations and to develop techniques to improve the accuracy of these measurements.
The initial focus of these experiments was on the lower atmosphere, for which the goal is an absolute accuracy of better than 2% in total column water vapor, corresponding to ~1 W m−2 of infrared radiation at the surface. To complement the operational water vapor instruments during the WVIOPs, additional instrumentation including a scanning Raman lidar, microwave radiometers, chilled-mirror hygrometers, a differential absorption lidar, and ground-based solar radiometers were deployed at the ARM site. The unique datasets from the 1996, 1997, and 1999 experiments have led to many results, including the discovery and characterization of a large (> 25%) sonde-to-sonde variability in the water vapor profiles from Vaisala RS-80H radiosondes that acts like a height-independent calibration factor error. However, the microwave observations provide a stable reference that can be used to remove a large part of the sonde-to-sonde calibration variability. In situ capacitive water vapor sensors demonstrated agreement within 2% of chilled-mirror hygrometers at the surface and on an instrumented tower. Water vapor profiles retrieved from two Raman lidars, which have both been calibrated to the ARM microwave radiometer, showed agreement to within 5% for all altitudes below 8 km during two WVIOPs. The mean agreement of the total precipitable water vapor from different techniques has converged significantly from early analysis that originally showed differences up to 15%. Retrievals of total precipitable water vapor (PWV) from the ARM microwave radiometer are now found to be only 3% moister than PWV derived from new GPS results, and about 2% drier than the mean of radiosonde data after a recently defined sonde dry-bias correction is applied. Raman lidar profiles calibrated using tower-mounted chilled-mirror hygrometers confirm the expected sensitivity of microwave radiometer data to water vapor changes, but it is drier than the microwave radiometer (MWR) by 0.95 mm for all PWV amounts. However, observations from different collocated microwave radiometers have shown larger differences than expected and attempts to resolve the remaining inconsistencies (in both calibration and forward modeling) are continuing.
The paper concludes by outlining the objectives of the recent 2000 WVIOP and the ARM–First International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) Regional Experiment (FIRE) Water Vapor Experiment (AFWEX), the latter of which switched the focus to characterizing upper-tropospheric humidity measurements.
Abstract
Atmospheric aerosols such as sulfate and black carbon (BC) generate inhomogeneous radiative forcing and can affect precipitation in distinct ways compared to greenhouse gases (GHGs). Their regional effects on the atmospheric energy budget and circulation can be important for understanding and predicting global and regional precipitation changes, which act on top of the background GHG-induced hydrological changes. Under the framework of the Precipitation Driver Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP), multiple models were used for the first time to simulate the influence of regional (Asian and European) sulfate and BC forcing on global and regional precipitation. The results show that, as in the case of global aerosol forcing, the global fast precipitation response to regional aerosol forcing scales with global atmospheric absorption, and the slow precipitation response scales with global surface temperature response. Asian sulfate aerosols appear to be a stronger driver of global temperature and precipitation change compared to European aerosols, but when the responses are normalized by unit radiative forcing or by aerosol burden change, the picture reverses, with European aerosols being more efficient in driving global change. The global apparent hydrological sensitivities of these regional forcing experiments are again consistent with those for corresponding global aerosol forcings found in the literature. However, the regional responses and regional apparent hydrological sensitivities do not align with the corresponding global values. Through a holistic approach involving analysis of the energy budget combined with exploring changes in atmospheric dynamics, we provide a framework for explaining the global and regional precipitation responses to regional aerosol forcing.
Abstract
Atmospheric aerosols such as sulfate and black carbon (BC) generate inhomogeneous radiative forcing and can affect precipitation in distinct ways compared to greenhouse gases (GHGs). Their regional effects on the atmospheric energy budget and circulation can be important for understanding and predicting global and regional precipitation changes, which act on top of the background GHG-induced hydrological changes. Under the framework of the Precipitation Driver Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP), multiple models were used for the first time to simulate the influence of regional (Asian and European) sulfate and BC forcing on global and regional precipitation. The results show that, as in the case of global aerosol forcing, the global fast precipitation response to regional aerosol forcing scales with global atmospheric absorption, and the slow precipitation response scales with global surface temperature response. Asian sulfate aerosols appear to be a stronger driver of global temperature and precipitation change compared to European aerosols, but when the responses are normalized by unit radiative forcing or by aerosol burden change, the picture reverses, with European aerosols being more efficient in driving global change. The global apparent hydrological sensitivities of these regional forcing experiments are again consistent with those for corresponding global aerosol forcings found in the literature. However, the regional responses and regional apparent hydrological sensitivities do not align with the corresponding global values. Through a holistic approach involving analysis of the energy budget combined with exploring changes in atmospheric dynamics, we provide a framework for explaining the global and regional precipitation responses to regional aerosol forcing.
Abstract
The CSIRO Climate retrospective Analysis and Forecast Ensemble system, version 1 (CAFE60v1) provides a large (96 member) ensemble retrospective analysis of the global climate system from 1960 to present with sufficiently many realizations and at spatiotemporal resolutions suitable to enable probabilistic climate studies. Using a variant of the ensemble Kalman filter, 96 climate state estimates are generated over the most recent six decades. These state estimates are constrained by monthly mean ocean, atmosphere, and sea ice observations such that their trajectories track the observed state while enabling estimation of the uncertainties in the approximations to the retrospective mean climate over recent decades. For the atmosphere, we evaluate CAFE60v1 in comparison to empirical indices of the major climate teleconnections and blocking with various reanalysis products. Estimates of the large-scale ocean structure, transports, and biogeochemistry are compared to those derived from gridded observational products and climate model projections (CMIP). Sea ice (extent, concentration, and variability) and land surface (precipitation and surface air temperatures) are also compared to a variety of model and observational products. Our results show that CAFE60v1 is a useful, comprehensive, and unique data resource for studying internal climate variability and predictability, including the recent climate response to anthropogenic forcing on multiyear to decadal time scales.
Abstract
The CSIRO Climate retrospective Analysis and Forecast Ensemble system, version 1 (CAFE60v1) provides a large (96 member) ensemble retrospective analysis of the global climate system from 1960 to present with sufficiently many realizations and at spatiotemporal resolutions suitable to enable probabilistic climate studies. Using a variant of the ensemble Kalman filter, 96 climate state estimates are generated over the most recent six decades. These state estimates are constrained by monthly mean ocean, atmosphere, and sea ice observations such that their trajectories track the observed state while enabling estimation of the uncertainties in the approximations to the retrospective mean climate over recent decades. For the atmosphere, we evaluate CAFE60v1 in comparison to empirical indices of the major climate teleconnections and blocking with various reanalysis products. Estimates of the large-scale ocean structure, transports, and biogeochemistry are compared to those derived from gridded observational products and climate model projections (CMIP). Sea ice (extent, concentration, and variability) and land surface (precipitation and surface air temperatures) are also compared to a variety of model and observational products. Our results show that CAFE60v1 is a useful, comprehensive, and unique data resource for studying internal climate variability and predictability, including the recent climate response to anthropogenic forcing on multiyear to decadal time scales.
