Abstract

To implement continuous and reliable rainfall retrieval, based on the satellite retrieval algorithm of 10-min rain rate, this study proposes an immediate tracking and continuous accumulation technique (ITCAT) of half-hour rainfall retrieval by further combining the cross-correlation method. The ITCAT includes two steps. 1) The cross-correlation method is applied to track cloud-motion currents and establish 10-min-interval image sequences. 2) A continuous retrieval of 10-min rain rates is conducted with the image sequences, and finally a total half-hour rainfall is determined by accumulations. The satellite retrieval tests on the typical precipitation processes in the summer of 2008 show that, compared with the previous direct rainfall retrieval for half-hour to one-hour, this rainfall retrieval technique significantly improves the retrieval accuracy of rainfall scope and rainfall intensity ranging from slight rain to rainstorm for both real-time monitoring or nowcasting processes. This technique is more effective than the previous algorithm, and the fundamental reason lies in its consideration of the movement of cloud clusters. On this basis, coverage duration of rainfall clouds can be reliably estimated. It is of significance to the retrieval of deep convective cloud rainfall with rapid movement speed and drastic intensity variation. This technique also provides a feasible idea for improving the accuracy of rainfall nowcasting.

Abstract

A close relationship between sea level pressure (SLP) over East Asia and precipitation indices (PIs) in eastern China was observed in the summers (June–August) of 1850–2008 using singular value decomposition (SVD) analysis. To investigate this relationship over a longer period, the SLP fields were reconstructed back to 1470 based on a mathematical model and the historical precipitation indices of eastern China. A cross-validation test of independent samples suggests that the reconstructed SLPs are statistically acceptable. According to the first three predominant SVD modes of the SLP field, three SLP index series (SLPI1–SLPI3) were developed to quantify the thermodynamic differences among the critical SLP centers of East Asia. Both SLPI1 and SLPI2 are highly correlated with the East Asian summer monsoon index, whereas SLPI3 is related to the index of Eurasian meridional atmospheric circulation. The temporal scales of SLP indices were examined during 1470–2008 using the wavelet power spectra. Results indicate that there is significant variance at a 2–5-yr band in the power spectra of the three SLP indices, suggesting SLPI1–SLPI3 have evident interannual variability. Moreover, the wavelet power spectra of SLPI1 and SLPI2 show significantly higher power at the 8–12-yr scale from 1470 to 1750 and at the 60–90-yr scale after 1750. For SLPI3, besides the interannual variability, it has additional periodical variability of 6–11 and 23–33 yr.

Abstract

The impact of North Indian atmospheric diabatic heating variation on summer rainfall over Central Asia (CA) at an interannual scale during 1960–2019 was investigated from thermal adaptation and water vapor transportation perspective. The results showed that more precipitation in southeastern CA is associated with the southward subtropical westerly jet (SWJ), caused by the ascending motion and weakened water vapor output on the south side. When the SWJ moves southward, the high-level water vapor transportation on the south side changes from outward (−1.9 × 10⁶ kg s⁻¹) to inward (0.6 × 10⁶ kg s⁻¹), and the positive anomalous relative vorticity advections by the basic westerly winds produce ascending anomalies over southeastern CA. The position change in the SWJ was mainly related to atmospheric diabatic heating over northern India (NI). The thermal vorticity adaptation caused by a weakened heating rate over NI leads to an anomalous upper-level cyclone over southeastern CA, and the associated cold temperature advection eventually cools the upper troposphere of southeastern CA and reduces the temperature gradient at mid-to-high latitudes, leading to the southward SWJ. Thermal adaptation of the circulation and temperature anomaly over southeastern CA to the NI thermal forcing were also verified by numerical experiments. Both the abnormal ascending motions and the weakened outward water vapor associated with the southward SWJ, caused by the weakened heating rate over NI, lead to more summer rainfall in southeastern CA. The changes in diabatic heating over NI are closely related to Indian Ocean SST. When the Indian Ocean SST is warmer, the south Asian summer monsoon weakens, causing less precipitation and, thus, a weakened heating rate over NI.

Abstract

On 12–13 June 1991, a series of convective rainstorms (defined as mesoscale precipitation systems with rainfall rates exceeding 10 mm h⁻¹) developed successively along the Mei-Yu front. During this event, new rainstorms formed to the east of preceding storms at an interval of approximately 300–400 km. The successive development and eastward propagation of these rainstorms produced heavy rainfall over the Jiang-Huai Basin in eastern China, with a maximum 24-h accumulation of 234 mm. This study presents the results of a numerical simulation of this heavy rainfall event using the Penn State–NCAR Mesoscale Model Version 5 (MM5) with a horizontal resolution of 54 km.

Despite the relatively coarse horizontal resolution, the MM5, using a moist physics package comprising an explicit scheme and the Grell cumulus parameterization, simulated the successive development of the rainstorms. The simulated rainstorms compared favorably with the observed systems in terms of size and intensity. An additional sensitivity experiment showed that latent heat release is crucial for the development of the rainstorms, the mesoscale low-level jet, the mesolow, the rapid spinup of vorticity, and the Mei-Yu frontogenesis. Without latent heat release, the maximum vertical motion associated with the rainstorm is reduced from 70 to 6 cm s⁻¹.

Additional model sensitivity experiments using the Kain–Fritsch cumulus parameterization with grid sizes of 54 and 18 km produced results very similar to the 54-km control experiment with the Grell scheme. This suggests that the simulation of Mei-Yu rainstorms, the mesoscale low-level jet, and the mesolow is not highly sensitive to convective parameterization and grid resolution. In all the full-physics experiments, the model rainfall was dominated by the resolvable-scale precipitation. This is attributed to the high relative humidity and low convective available potential energy environment in the vicinity of the Mei-Yu front.

The modeling results suggest that there is strong interaction and positive feedback between the convective rainstorms embedded within the Mei-Yu front and the Mei-Yu front itself. The front provides a favorable environment for such rainstorms to develop, and the rainstorms intensify the Mei-Yu front.

Abstract

As Typhoon Goni (2015) passed over Ishigaki Island, a maximum gust speed of 71 m s⁻¹ was observed by a surface weather station. During Typhoon Goni’s passage, mountaintop radar recorded antenna elevation angle oscillations, with a maximum amplitude of ~0.2° at an elevation angle of 0.2°. This oscillation phenomenon was reflected in the reflectivity and Doppler velocity fields as Typhoon Goni’s eyewall encompassed Ishigaki Island. The main antenna oscillation period was approximately 0.21–0.38 s under an antenna rotational speed of ~4 rpm. The estimated fundamental vibration period of the radar tower is approximately 0.25–0.44 s, which is comparable to the predominant antenna oscillation period and agrees with the expected wind-induced vibrations of buildings. The reflectivity field at the 0.2° elevation angle exhibited a phase shift signature and a negative correlation of −0.5 with the antenna oscillation, associated with the negative vertical gradient of reflectivity. FFT analysis revealed two antenna oscillation periods at 0955–1205 and 1335–1445 UTC 23 August 2015. The oscillation phenomenon ceased between these two periods because Typhoon Goni’s eye moved over the radar site. The VAD analysis-estimated wind speeds at a range of 1 km for these two antenna oscillation periods exceeded 45 m s⁻¹, with a maximum value of approximately 70 m s⁻¹. A bandpass filter QC procedure is proposed to filter out the predominant wavenumbers (between 40 and 70) for the reflectivity and Doppler velocity fields. The proposed QC procedure is indicated to be capable of mitigating the major signals resulting from antenna oscillations.

Abstract

The annual range (AR) of precipitation in the Amazon River basin has increased steadily since 1979. This increase may have resulted from natural variability and/or anthropogenic forcing, such as local land-use changes and global warming, which has yet to be explored. In this study, climate model experiments using the Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2), were conducted to examine the relative contributions of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) variability and anthropogenic forcings to the AR changes in the Amazon rainfall. With CESM2, we design several factorial simulations, instead of actual model projection. We found that the North Atlantic SSTs fluctuation dominantly decreases the precipitation AR trend over the Amazon by −85%. In contrast, other factors, including deforestation and carbon dioxide, contributed to the trend changes, ranging from 25% to 35%. The dynamic component, specifically the tendency of vertical motion, made negative contributions, along with the vertical profiles of moist static energy (MSE) tendency. Seasonal-dependent changes in atmospheric stability could be associated with variations in precipitation. It is concluded that surface ocean warming associated with the North Atlantic natural variability and global warming is the key factor in the increased precipitation AR over the Amazon from 1979 to 2014. The continuous local land-use changes may potentially influence the precipitation AR in the future.

Abstract

Subseasonal variations in warm-season (May–August) precipitation over the central and eastern United States are shown to be strongly linked to variations in the moisture entering the continent from the Gulf of Mexico within a longitudinally confined “channel” (referred to here as the Texas corridor or TC). These variations reflect the development of low-level southerly wind maxima (or jets) on a number of different timescales in association with distinct subcontinental and larger-scale phenomena. On the diurnal timescale, the TC moisture flux variations are tied to the development of the Great Plains low-level jet. The composite nighttime anomalies are characterized by a strong southerly moisture flux covering northeast Mexico and the southern Great Plains, and enhanced boundary layer convergence and precipitation over much of the upper Great Plains. The strongest jets tend to be associated with an anomalous surface low over the Great Plains, reflecting a predilection for periods when midlatitude weather systems are positioned to produce enhanced southerly flow over this region. On subsynoptic (2–4 days) timescales the TC moisture flux variations are associated with the development and evolution of a warm-season lee cyclone. These systems, which are most prevalent during the early part of the warm season (May and June), form over the central Great Plains in association with an upper-level shortwave and enhanced upper-tropospheric cross-mountain westerly flow. A low-level southerly wind maximum or jet develops underneath and perpendicular to the advancing edge of enhanced midtropospheric westerlies. The clash of anomalous southerly moisture flux and a deep intrusion of anomalous northerly low-level winds results in enhanced precipitation eventually stretching from Texas to the Great Lakes. On synoptic (4–8 days) timescales the TC moisture flux variations are associated with the propagation and intensification of a warm-season midlatitude cyclone. This system, which also occurs preferentially during May and June, develops offshore and intensifies as it crosses the Rocky Mountains and taps moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. Low-level southerly wind anomalies develop parallel to the mid- and upper-level winds on the leading edge of the trough. Widespread precipitation anomalies move with the propagating system with reduced rainfall occurring over the anomalous surface high, and enhanced rainfall occurring over the anomalous surface low. On still longer timescales (8–16 days) the variations in the TC moisture transport are tied to slow eastward-moving systems. The evolution and structure of the mid- and low-level winds are similar to those of the synoptic-scale system with, however, a somewhat larger zonal scale and spatially more diffuse southerly moisture flux and precipitation anomalies.

Abstract

Ocean salinity plays a crucial role in the upper-ocean stratification and local marine ecosystem. This study reveals that ocean salinity presents notable decadal variability in upper 200 m over the southeast Indian Ocean (SEIO). Previous studies linked this salinity variability with precipitation anomalies over the Indo-Pacific region modulated by the tropical Pacific decadal variability. Here we conduct a quantitative salinity budget analysis and show that, in contrast, oceanic advection, especially the anomalous meridional advection, plays a dominant role in modulating the SEIO salinity on the decadal time scale. The anomalous meridional advection is mainly associated with a zonal dipole pattern of sea level anomaly (SLA) in the south Indian Ocean (SIO). Specifically, positive and negative SLAs in the east and west of the SIO correspond to anomalous southward oceanic current, which transports much fresher seawater from the warm pool into the SEIO and thereby decreases the local upper-ocean salinity, and vice versa. Further investigation reveals that the local anomalous wind stress curl associated with tropical Pacific forcing is responsible for generating the sea level dipole pattern via oceanic Rossby wave adjustment on decadal time scale. This study highlights that the local ocean–atmosphere dynamical adjustment is critical for the decadal salinity variability in the SEIO.

Abstract

The double intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) bias in the eastern Pacific in the Community Earth System Model version 1 with Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CESM1/CAM5) is diagnosed. In CAM5 standalone, the northern ITCZ is associated with inertial instability and the southern ITCZ is thermally forced. After air–sea coupling, the processes on both hemispheres are switched because the spatial pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) is changed.

Biases occur during boreal spring in both CAM5 and the ocean model. In CAM5 alone, weaker-than-observed equatorial easterly in the tropical eastern South Pacific leads to weaker evaporation and an increase in local SST. The shallow meridional circulation overly converges in the same region in the CAM5 standalone simulation, the planetary boundary layer and middle troposphere are too humid, and the large-scale subsidence is too weak at the middle levels. These biases may result from excessive shallow convection behavior in CAM5. The extra moisture would then fuel stronger convection and a higher precipitation rate in the southeastern Pacific.

In the ocean model, the South Equatorial Current is underestimated and the North Equatorial Countercurrent is located too close to the equator, causing a warm SST bias in the southeastern Pacific and a cold bias in the northeastern Pacific. These SST biases feed back to the atmosphere and further influence convection and the surface wind biases in the coupled simulation. When the convection in the tropical northeastern Pacific becomes thermally forced after coupling, the northern ITCZ is diminished due to colder SST, forming the so-called alternating ITCZ bias.

Abstract

Subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) weather forecasting has made significant advances and several products have been made available. However, to date few studies utilize these products to extend the hydrological forecast time range. This study evaluates S2S precipitation from eight model ensembles in the hydrological simulation of extreme events at the catchment scale. A superior bias correction method is used to correct the bias of S2S precipitation for hydrological forecasts, and the results are compared with direct bias correction of hydrological forecasts using raw precipitation forecasts as input. The study shows that the S2S models can skillfully forecast daily precipitation within a lead time of 11 days. The S2S precipitation data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), and United Kingdom’s Met Office (UKMO) models present lower mean error than that of other models and have higher correlation coefficients with observations. Precipitation data from the ECMWF, KMA, and UKMO models also perform better than that of other models in simulating multiple-day precipitation processes. The bias correction method effectively reduces the mean error of daily S2S precipitation for all models while also improving the correlation with observations. Moreover, this study found that the bias correction procedure can apply to either precipitation or streamflow simulations for improving the hydrological forecasts, even though the degree of improvement is dependent on the hydrological variables. Overall, S2S precipitation has a potential to be applied for hydrological forecasts, and a superior bias correction method can increase the forecasts’ reliability, although further studies are still needed to confirm its effect.