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Abstract
Experimental observations from coastal and island wind profilers, aircraft, and other sensors deployed during the California Land-falling Jets Experiment of 1997/98 and the Pacific Land-falling Jets Experiment of 2000/01–2003/04 were combined with observations from operational networks to document the regular occurrence and characteristic structure of shallow (∼400–500 m deep), cold airstreams flowing westward through California’s Petaluma Gap from the Central Valley to the coast during the winter months. The Petaluma Gap, which is the only major air shed outlet from the Central Valley, is ∼35–50 km wide and has walls extending, at most, a modest 600–900 m above the valley floor. Based on this geometry, together with winter meteorological conditions typical of the region (e.g., cold air pooled in the Central Valley and approaching extratropical cyclones), this gap is predisposed to generating westward-directed ageostrophic flows driven by along-gap pressure differences. Two case studies and a five-winter composite analysis of 62 gap-flow cases are presented here to show that flows through the Petaluma Gap significantly impact local distributions of wind, temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric pollutants. These gap flows preferentially occur in pre-cold-frontal conditions, largely because sea level pressure decreases westward along the gap in a stably stratified atmosphere in advance of approaching cold-frontal pressure troughs. Airstreams exiting the Petaluma Gap are only several hundred meters deep and characterized by relatively cold, easterly flow capped by a layer of enhanced static stability and directional vertical wind shear. Airborne air-chemistry observations collected offshore by the NOAA P-3 aircraft illustrate the fact that gap-flow events can transport pollutants from inland to the coast, and that they can contribute to coastally blocked airstreams. The strongest gap-flow cases occur when comparatively deep midtropospheric troughs approach the coast, while the weak cases are tied to anticyclonic conditions aloft. Low-level cold-frontal pressure troughs approaching the coast are stronger and possess a greater along-gap pressure gradient for the strong gap-flow cases. These synoptic characteristics are dynamically consistent with coastal wind profiler observations of stronger low-level gap flow and winds aloft, and greater rainfall, during the strong gap-flow events. However, gap flow, on average, inhibits rainfall at the coast.
Abstract
Experimental observations from coastal and island wind profilers, aircraft, and other sensors deployed during the California Land-falling Jets Experiment of 1997/98 and the Pacific Land-falling Jets Experiment of 2000/01–2003/04 were combined with observations from operational networks to document the regular occurrence and characteristic structure of shallow (∼400–500 m deep), cold airstreams flowing westward through California’s Petaluma Gap from the Central Valley to the coast during the winter months. The Petaluma Gap, which is the only major air shed outlet from the Central Valley, is ∼35–50 km wide and has walls extending, at most, a modest 600–900 m above the valley floor. Based on this geometry, together with winter meteorological conditions typical of the region (e.g., cold air pooled in the Central Valley and approaching extratropical cyclones), this gap is predisposed to generating westward-directed ageostrophic flows driven by along-gap pressure differences. Two case studies and a five-winter composite analysis of 62 gap-flow cases are presented here to show that flows through the Petaluma Gap significantly impact local distributions of wind, temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric pollutants. These gap flows preferentially occur in pre-cold-frontal conditions, largely because sea level pressure decreases westward along the gap in a stably stratified atmosphere in advance of approaching cold-frontal pressure troughs. Airstreams exiting the Petaluma Gap are only several hundred meters deep and characterized by relatively cold, easterly flow capped by a layer of enhanced static stability and directional vertical wind shear. Airborne air-chemistry observations collected offshore by the NOAA P-3 aircraft illustrate the fact that gap-flow events can transport pollutants from inland to the coast, and that they can contribute to coastally blocked airstreams. The strongest gap-flow cases occur when comparatively deep midtropospheric troughs approach the coast, while the weak cases are tied to anticyclonic conditions aloft. Low-level cold-frontal pressure troughs approaching the coast are stronger and possess a greater along-gap pressure gradient for the strong gap-flow cases. These synoptic characteristics are dynamically consistent with coastal wind profiler observations of stronger low-level gap flow and winds aloft, and greater rainfall, during the strong gap-flow events. However, gap flow, on average, inhibits rainfall at the coast.
Abstract
The wettest period during the CalWater-2014 winter field campaign occurred with a long-lived, intense atmospheric river (AR) that impacted California on 7–10 February. The AR was maintained in conjunction with the development and propagation of three successive mesoscale frontal waves. Based on Lagrangian trajectory analysis, moist air of tropical origin was tapped by the AR and was subsequently transported into California. Widespread heavy precipitation (200–400 mm) fell across the coastal mountain ranges northwest of San Francisco and across the northern Sierra Nevada, although only modest flooding ensued due to anomalously dry antecedent conditions. A NOAA G-IV aircraft flew through two of the frontal waves in the AR environment offshore during a ~24-h period. Parallel dropsonde curtains documented key three-dimensional thermodynamic and kinematic characteristics across the AR and the frontal waves prior to landfall. The AR characteristics varied, depending on the location of the cross section through the frontal waves. A newly implemented tail-mounted Doppler radar on the G-IV simultaneously captured coherent precipitation features. Along the coast, a 449-MHz wind profiler and collocated global positioning system (GPS) receiver documented prolonged AR conditions linked to the propagation of the three frontal waves and highlighted the orographic character of the coastal-mountain rainfall with the waves’ landfall. A vertically pointing S-PROF radar in the coastal mountains provided detailed information on the bulk microphysical characteristics of the rainfall. Farther inland, a pair of 915-MHz wind profilers and GPS receivers quantified the orographic precipitation forcing as the AR ascended the Sierra Nevada, and as the terrain-induced Sierra barrier jet ascended the northern terminus of California’s Central Valley.
Abstract
The wettest period during the CalWater-2014 winter field campaign occurred with a long-lived, intense atmospheric river (AR) that impacted California on 7–10 February. The AR was maintained in conjunction with the development and propagation of three successive mesoscale frontal waves. Based on Lagrangian trajectory analysis, moist air of tropical origin was tapped by the AR and was subsequently transported into California. Widespread heavy precipitation (200–400 mm) fell across the coastal mountain ranges northwest of San Francisco and across the northern Sierra Nevada, although only modest flooding ensued due to anomalously dry antecedent conditions. A NOAA G-IV aircraft flew through two of the frontal waves in the AR environment offshore during a ~24-h period. Parallel dropsonde curtains documented key three-dimensional thermodynamic and kinematic characteristics across the AR and the frontal waves prior to landfall. The AR characteristics varied, depending on the location of the cross section through the frontal waves. A newly implemented tail-mounted Doppler radar on the G-IV simultaneously captured coherent precipitation features. Along the coast, a 449-MHz wind profiler and collocated global positioning system (GPS) receiver documented prolonged AR conditions linked to the propagation of the three frontal waves and highlighted the orographic character of the coastal-mountain rainfall with the waves’ landfall. A vertically pointing S-PROF radar in the coastal mountains provided detailed information on the bulk microphysical characteristics of the rainfall. Farther inland, a pair of 915-MHz wind profilers and GPS receivers quantified the orographic precipitation forcing as the AR ascended the Sierra Nevada, and as the terrain-induced Sierra barrier jet ascended the northern terminus of California’s Central Valley.
Abstract
Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are narrow regions of enhanced water vapor transport, usually found on the warm-sector side of the polar cold front in many midlatitude storms formed primarily over the oceans. Nonbrightband (NBB) rain is a shallow orographic rainfall process driven by collision and coalescence that has been observed in some of these storms. NBB rain accounts for about one-third, on average, of the total winter season rainfall occurring at a coastal mountain site in Northern California. During the California Energy Commission’s CalWater project, nearly the same fraction of NBB rain was observed at a northern Sierra Nevada foothills site as compared to the coastal mountains, whereas less than half of the fractional amount of NBB rain was observed at a southern Sierra Nevada foothills site. Both Sierra Nevada sites often experience terrain-induced blocked flow, that is, Sierra barrier jet (SBJ) during landfalling winter storms. However, the northern Sierra Nevada site often is oriented geographically downwind of a gap in the coastal terrain near San Francisco during AR landfall. This gap allows maritime air in the AR to arrive at the northern site and enhance the collision–coalescence process in orographic feeder clouds as compared with the southern site. As a result, a greater amount and intensity of NBB rain and overall precipitation was produced at the northern site. This study uses a variety of observations collected in the coastal and Sierra Nevada ranges from the Hydrometeorology Testbed and CalWater field campaigns to document this behavior. A detailed case study provides additional context on the interaction between AR flow, the SBJ, and precipitation processes.
Abstract
Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are narrow regions of enhanced water vapor transport, usually found on the warm-sector side of the polar cold front in many midlatitude storms formed primarily over the oceans. Nonbrightband (NBB) rain is a shallow orographic rainfall process driven by collision and coalescence that has been observed in some of these storms. NBB rain accounts for about one-third, on average, of the total winter season rainfall occurring at a coastal mountain site in Northern California. During the California Energy Commission’s CalWater project, nearly the same fraction of NBB rain was observed at a northern Sierra Nevada foothills site as compared to the coastal mountains, whereas less than half of the fractional amount of NBB rain was observed at a southern Sierra Nevada foothills site. Both Sierra Nevada sites often experience terrain-induced blocked flow, that is, Sierra barrier jet (SBJ) during landfalling winter storms. However, the northern Sierra Nevada site often is oriented geographically downwind of a gap in the coastal terrain near San Francisco during AR landfall. This gap allows maritime air in the AR to arrive at the northern site and enhance the collision–coalescence process in orographic feeder clouds as compared with the southern site. As a result, a greater amount and intensity of NBB rain and overall precipitation was produced at the northern site. This study uses a variety of observations collected in the coastal and Sierra Nevada ranges from the Hydrometeorology Testbed and CalWater field campaigns to document this behavior. A detailed case study provides additional context on the interaction between AR flow, the SBJ, and precipitation processes.
Abstract
Data from the California Land-Falling Jets Experiment (CALJET) are used to explore the causes of variations in flood severity in adjacent coastal watersheds within the Santa Cruz Mountains on 2–3 February 1998. While Pescadero Creek (rural) experienced its flood of record, the adjacent San Lorenzo Creek (heavily populated), attained only its fourth-highest flow. This difference resulted from conditions present while the warm sector of the storm, with its associated low-level jet, high moisture content, and weak static stability, was overhead. Rainfall in the warm sector was dominated by orographic forcing. While the wind speed strongly modulated rain rates on windward slopes, the wind direction positioned the edge of a rain shadow cast by the Santa Lucia Mountains partially over the San Lorenzo basin, thus protecting the city of Santa Cruz from a more severe flood. Roughly 26% ± 9% of the streamflow at flood peak on Pescadero Creek resulted from the warm-sector rainfall. Without this rainfall, the peak flow on Pescadero Creek would likely not have attained record status.
These results are complemented by a climatological analysis based on ∼50-yr-duration streamflow records for these and two other nearby windward watersheds situated ∼20 to 40 km farther to the east, and a comparison of this climatological analysis with composites of NCEP–NCAR reanalysis fields. The westernmost watersheds were found to have their greatest floods during El Niño winters, while the easternmost watersheds peaked during non–El Niño episodes. These results are consistent with the case study, that showed that the composite 925-mb, meridionally oriented wind direction during El Niños favors a rain shadow over the eastern watersheds. During non–El Niño periods, the composite, zonally oriented wind direction indicates that the sheltering effect of the rain shadow on the eastern watersheds is reduced, while weaker winds, less water vapor, and stronger stratification reduce the peak runoff in the western watersheds relative to El Niño periods.
These case study and climatological results illustrate the importance of conditions in the moisture-rich warm sector of landfalling Pacific winter storms. Although many other variables can influence flooding, this study shows that variations of ±10° in wind direction can modulate the location of orographically enhanced floods. While terrain can increase predictability (e.g., rainfall typically increases with altitude), the predictability is reduced when conditions are near a threshold separating different regimes (e.g., in or out of a rain shadow).
Abstract
Data from the California Land-Falling Jets Experiment (CALJET) are used to explore the causes of variations in flood severity in adjacent coastal watersheds within the Santa Cruz Mountains on 2–3 February 1998. While Pescadero Creek (rural) experienced its flood of record, the adjacent San Lorenzo Creek (heavily populated), attained only its fourth-highest flow. This difference resulted from conditions present while the warm sector of the storm, with its associated low-level jet, high moisture content, and weak static stability, was overhead. Rainfall in the warm sector was dominated by orographic forcing. While the wind speed strongly modulated rain rates on windward slopes, the wind direction positioned the edge of a rain shadow cast by the Santa Lucia Mountains partially over the San Lorenzo basin, thus protecting the city of Santa Cruz from a more severe flood. Roughly 26% ± 9% of the streamflow at flood peak on Pescadero Creek resulted from the warm-sector rainfall. Without this rainfall, the peak flow on Pescadero Creek would likely not have attained record status.
These results are complemented by a climatological analysis based on ∼50-yr-duration streamflow records for these and two other nearby windward watersheds situated ∼20 to 40 km farther to the east, and a comparison of this climatological analysis with composites of NCEP–NCAR reanalysis fields. The westernmost watersheds were found to have their greatest floods during El Niño winters, while the easternmost watersheds peaked during non–El Niño episodes. These results are consistent with the case study, that showed that the composite 925-mb, meridionally oriented wind direction during El Niños favors a rain shadow over the eastern watersheds. During non–El Niño periods, the composite, zonally oriented wind direction indicates that the sheltering effect of the rain shadow on the eastern watersheds is reduced, while weaker winds, less water vapor, and stronger stratification reduce the peak runoff in the western watersheds relative to El Niño periods.
These case study and climatological results illustrate the importance of conditions in the moisture-rich warm sector of landfalling Pacific winter storms. Although many other variables can influence flooding, this study shows that variations of ±10° in wind direction can modulate the location of orographically enhanced floods. While terrain can increase predictability (e.g., rainfall typically increases with altitude), the predictability is reduced when conditions are near a threshold separating different regimes (e.g., in or out of a rain shadow).
Abstract
Air pollution episodes in northern New England often are caused by transport of pollutants over water. Two such episodes in the summer of 2002 are examined (22–23 July and 11–14 August). In both cases, the pollutants that affected coastal New Hampshire and coastal southwest Maine were transported over coastal waters in stable layers at the surface. These layers were at least intermittently turbulent but retained their chemical constituents. The lack of deposition or deep vertical mixing on the overwater trajectories allowed pollutant concentrations to remain strong. The polluted plumes came directly from the Boston, Massachusetts, area. In the 22–23 July case, the trajectories were relatively straight and dominated by synoptic-scale effects, transporting pollution to the Maine coast. On 11–14 August, sea breezes brought polluted air from the coastal waters inland into New Hampshire.
Abstract
Air pollution episodes in northern New England often are caused by transport of pollutants over water. Two such episodes in the summer of 2002 are examined (22–23 July and 11–14 August). In both cases, the pollutants that affected coastal New Hampshire and coastal southwest Maine were transported over coastal waters in stable layers at the surface. These layers were at least intermittently turbulent but retained their chemical constituents. The lack of deposition or deep vertical mixing on the overwater trajectories allowed pollutant concentrations to remain strong. The polluted plumes came directly from the Boston, Massachusetts, area. In the 22–23 July case, the trajectories were relatively straight and dominated by synoptic-scale effects, transporting pollution to the Maine coast. On 11–14 August, sea breezes brought polluted air from the coastal waters inland into New Hampshire.
Abstract
Dual-polarization scanning radar measurements, air temperature soundings, and a polarimetric radar-based particle identification scheme are used to generate maps and probability density functions (PDFs) of the ice water path (IWP) in Hurricanes Arthur (2014) and Irene (2011) at landfall. The IWP is separated into the contribution from small ice (i.e., ice crystals), termed small-particle IWP, and large ice (i.e., graupel and snow), termed large-particle IWP. Vertically profiling radar data from Hurricane Arthur suggest that the small ice particles detected by the scanning radar have fall velocities mostly greater than 0.25 m s−1 and that the particle identification scheme is capable of distinguishing between small and large ice particles in a mean sense. The IWP maps and PDFs reveal that the total and large-particle IWPs range up to 10 kg m−2, with the largest values confined to intense convective precipitation within the rainbands and eyewall. Small-particle IWP remains mostly <4 kg m−2, with the largest small-particle IWP values collocated with maxima in the total IWP. PDFs of the small-to-total IWP ratio have shapes that depend on the precipitation type (i.e., intense convective, stratiform, or weak-echo precipitation). The IWP ratio distribution is narrowest (broadest) in intense convective (weak echo) precipitation and peaks at a ratio of about 0.1 (0.3).
Abstract
Dual-polarization scanning radar measurements, air temperature soundings, and a polarimetric radar-based particle identification scheme are used to generate maps and probability density functions (PDFs) of the ice water path (IWP) in Hurricanes Arthur (2014) and Irene (2011) at landfall. The IWP is separated into the contribution from small ice (i.e., ice crystals), termed small-particle IWP, and large ice (i.e., graupel and snow), termed large-particle IWP. Vertically profiling radar data from Hurricane Arthur suggest that the small ice particles detected by the scanning radar have fall velocities mostly greater than 0.25 m s−1 and that the particle identification scheme is capable of distinguishing between small and large ice particles in a mean sense. The IWP maps and PDFs reveal that the total and large-particle IWPs range up to 10 kg m−2, with the largest values confined to intense convective precipitation within the rainbands and eyewall. Small-particle IWP remains mostly <4 kg m−2, with the largest small-particle IWP values collocated with maxima in the total IWP. PDFs of the small-to-total IWP ratio have shapes that depend on the precipitation type (i.e., intense convective, stratiform, or weak-echo precipitation). The IWP ratio distribution is narrowest (broadest) in intense convective (weak echo) precipitation and peaks at a ratio of about 0.1 (0.3).
Abstract
To gain a more complete observational understanding of atmospheric rivers (ARs) over the data-sparse open ocean, a diverse suite of mobile observing platforms deployed on NOAA’s R/V Ronald H. Brown (RHB) and G-IV research aircraft during the CalWater-2015 field campaign was used to describe the structure and evolution of a long-lived AR modulated by six frontal waves over the northeastern Pacific during 20–25 January 2015. Satellite observations and reanalysis diagnostics provided synoptic-scale context, illustrating the warm, moist southwesterly airstream within the quasi-stationary AR situated between an upper-level trough and ridge. The AR remained offshore of the U.S. West Coast but made landfall across British Columbia where heavy precipitation fell. A total of 47 rawinsondes launched from the RHB provided a comprehensive thermodynamic and kinematic depiction of the AR, including uniquely documenting an upward intrusion of strong water vapor transport in the low-level moist southwesterly flow during the passage of frontal waves 2–6. A collocated 1290-MHz wind profiler showed an abrupt frontal transition from southwesterly to northerly flow below 1 km MSL coinciding with the tail end of AR conditions. Shipborne radar and disdrometer observations in the AR uniquely captured key microphysical characteristics of shallow warm rain, convection, and deep mixed-phase precipitation. Novel observations of sea surface fluxes in a midlatitude AR documented persistent ocean surface evaporation and sensible heat transfer into the ocean. The G-IV aircraft flew directly over the ship, with dropsonde and radar spatial analyses complementing the temporal depictions of the AR from the RHB. The AR characteristics varied, depending on the location of the cross section relative to the frontal waves.
Abstract
To gain a more complete observational understanding of atmospheric rivers (ARs) over the data-sparse open ocean, a diverse suite of mobile observing platforms deployed on NOAA’s R/V Ronald H. Brown (RHB) and G-IV research aircraft during the CalWater-2015 field campaign was used to describe the structure and evolution of a long-lived AR modulated by six frontal waves over the northeastern Pacific during 20–25 January 2015. Satellite observations and reanalysis diagnostics provided synoptic-scale context, illustrating the warm, moist southwesterly airstream within the quasi-stationary AR situated between an upper-level trough and ridge. The AR remained offshore of the U.S. West Coast but made landfall across British Columbia where heavy precipitation fell. A total of 47 rawinsondes launched from the RHB provided a comprehensive thermodynamic and kinematic depiction of the AR, including uniquely documenting an upward intrusion of strong water vapor transport in the low-level moist southwesterly flow during the passage of frontal waves 2–6. A collocated 1290-MHz wind profiler showed an abrupt frontal transition from southwesterly to northerly flow below 1 km MSL coinciding with the tail end of AR conditions. Shipborne radar and disdrometer observations in the AR uniquely captured key microphysical characteristics of shallow warm rain, convection, and deep mixed-phase precipitation. Novel observations of sea surface fluxes in a midlatitude AR documented persistent ocean surface evaporation and sensible heat transfer into the ocean. The G-IV aircraft flew directly over the ship, with dropsonde and radar spatial analyses complementing the temporal depictions of the AR from the RHB. The AR characteristics varied, depending on the location of the cross section relative to the frontal waves.
Twelve national research organizations joined forces on a 30-day, 6800 n mi survey of the Central and Tropical Western Pacific on NOAA's Research Vessel Discoverer. The Combined Sensor Program (CSP), which began in American Samoa on 14 March 1996, visited Manus Island, Papua New Guinea, and ended in Hawaii on 13 April, used a unique combination of in situ, satellite, and remote sensors to better understand relationships between atmospheric and oceanic variables that affect radiative balance in this climatically important region. Besides continuously measuring both shortwave and longwave radiative fluxes, CSP instruments also measured most other factors affecting the radiative balance, including profiles of clouds (lidar and radar), aerosols (in situ and lidar), moisture (balloons, lidar, and radiometers), and sea surface temperature (thermometers and Fourier Transform Infrared Radiometers). Surface fluxes of heat, momentum, and moisture were also measured continuously. The Department of Energy's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program used the mission to validate similar measurements made at their CART site on Manus Island and to investigate the effect (if any) of large nearby landmasses on the island-based measurements.
Twelve national research organizations joined forces on a 30-day, 6800 n mi survey of the Central and Tropical Western Pacific on NOAA's Research Vessel Discoverer. The Combined Sensor Program (CSP), which began in American Samoa on 14 March 1996, visited Manus Island, Papua New Guinea, and ended in Hawaii on 13 April, used a unique combination of in situ, satellite, and remote sensors to better understand relationships between atmospheric and oceanic variables that affect radiative balance in this climatically important region. Besides continuously measuring both shortwave and longwave radiative fluxes, CSP instruments also measured most other factors affecting the radiative balance, including profiles of clouds (lidar and radar), aerosols (in situ and lidar), moisture (balloons, lidar, and radiometers), and sea surface temperature (thermometers and Fourier Transform Infrared Radiometers). Surface fluxes of heat, momentum, and moisture were also measured continuously. The Department of Energy's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program used the mission to validate similar measurements made at their CART site on Manus Island and to investigate the effect (if any) of large nearby landmasses on the island-based measurements.
The New England High-Resolution Temperature Program seeks to improve the accuracy of summertime 2-m temperature and dewpoint temperature forecasts in the New England region through a collaborative effort between the research and operational components of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The four main components of this program are 1) improved surface and boundary layer observations for model initialization, 2) special observations for the assessment and improvement of model physical process parameterization schemes, 3) using model forecast ensemble data to improve upon the operational forecasts for near-surface variables, and 4) transfering knowledge gained to commercial weather services and end users. Since 2002 this program has enhanced surface temperature observations by adding 70 new automated Cooperative Observer Program (COOP) sites, identified and collected data from over 1000 non-NOAA mesonet sites, and deployed boundary layer profilers and other special instrumentation throughout the New England region to better observe the surface energy budget. Comparisons of these special datasets with numerical model forecasts indicate that near-surface temperature errors are strongly correlated to errors in the model-predicted radiation fields. The attenuation of solar radiation by aerosols is one potential source of the model radiation bias. However, even with these model errors, results from bias-corrected ensemble forecasts are more accurate than the operational model output statistics (MOS) forecasts for 2-m temperature and dewpoint temperature, while also providing reliable forecast probabilities. Discussions with commerical weather vendors and end users have emphasized the potential economic value of these probabilistic ensemble-generated forecasts.
The New England High-Resolution Temperature Program seeks to improve the accuracy of summertime 2-m temperature and dewpoint temperature forecasts in the New England region through a collaborative effort between the research and operational components of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The four main components of this program are 1) improved surface and boundary layer observations for model initialization, 2) special observations for the assessment and improvement of model physical process parameterization schemes, 3) using model forecast ensemble data to improve upon the operational forecasts for near-surface variables, and 4) transfering knowledge gained to commercial weather services and end users. Since 2002 this program has enhanced surface temperature observations by adding 70 new automated Cooperative Observer Program (COOP) sites, identified and collected data from over 1000 non-NOAA mesonet sites, and deployed boundary layer profilers and other special instrumentation throughout the New England region to better observe the surface energy budget. Comparisons of these special datasets with numerical model forecasts indicate that near-surface temperature errors are strongly correlated to errors in the model-predicted radiation fields. The attenuation of solar radiation by aerosols is one potential source of the model radiation bias. However, even with these model errors, results from bias-corrected ensemble forecasts are more accurate than the operational model output statistics (MOS) forecasts for 2-m temperature and dewpoint temperature, while also providing reliable forecast probabilities. Discussions with commerical weather vendors and end users have emphasized the potential economic value of these probabilistic ensemble-generated forecasts.
The Howard A. Hanson Dam (HHD) has brought flood protection to Washington's Green River Valley for more than 40 years and opened the way for increased valley development near Seattle. However, following a record high level of water behind the dam in January 2009 and the discovery of elevated seepage through the dam's abutment, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers declared the dam “unsafe.” NOAA's Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR) and National Weather Service (NWS) worked together to respond rapidly to this crisis for the 2009/10 winter season, drawing from innovations developed in NWS offices and in NOAA's Hydrometeorology Test-bed (HMT).
New data telemetry was added to 14 existing surface rain gauges, allowing the gauge data to be ingested into the NWS rainfall database. The NWS Seattle Weather Forecast Office produced customized daily forecasts, including longer-lead-time hydrologic outlooks and new decision support services tailored for emergency managers and the public, new capabilities enabled by specialized products from NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and from HMT. The NOAA Physical Sciences Division (PSD) deployed a group of specialized instruments on the Washington coast and near the HHD that constituted two atmospheric river (AR) observatories (AROs) and conducted special HMT numerical model forecast runs. Atmospheric rivers are narrow corridors of enhanced water vapor transport in extratropical oceanic storms that can produce heavy orographic precipitation and anomalously high snow levels, and thus can trigger flooding. The AROs gave forecasters detailed vertical profile observations of AR conditions aloft, including monitoring of real-time water vapor transport and comparison with model runs.
The Howard A. Hanson Dam (HHD) has brought flood protection to Washington's Green River Valley for more than 40 years and opened the way for increased valley development near Seattle. However, following a record high level of water behind the dam in January 2009 and the discovery of elevated seepage through the dam's abutment, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers declared the dam “unsafe.” NOAA's Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR) and National Weather Service (NWS) worked together to respond rapidly to this crisis for the 2009/10 winter season, drawing from innovations developed in NWS offices and in NOAA's Hydrometeorology Test-bed (HMT).
New data telemetry was added to 14 existing surface rain gauges, allowing the gauge data to be ingested into the NWS rainfall database. The NWS Seattle Weather Forecast Office produced customized daily forecasts, including longer-lead-time hydrologic outlooks and new decision support services tailored for emergency managers and the public, new capabilities enabled by specialized products from NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and from HMT. The NOAA Physical Sciences Division (PSD) deployed a group of specialized instruments on the Washington coast and near the HHD that constituted two atmospheric river (AR) observatories (AROs) and conducted special HMT numerical model forecast runs. Atmospheric rivers are narrow corridors of enhanced water vapor transport in extratropical oceanic storms that can produce heavy orographic precipitation and anomalously high snow levels, and thus can trigger flooding. The AROs gave forecasters detailed vertical profile observations of AR conditions aloft, including monitoring of real-time water vapor transport and comparison with model runs.
