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Abstract
By exploiting an abundant number of extreme storms observed simultaneously by the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission Core Observatory satellite’s suite of sensors and by the ground-based S-band Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD) network over the continental United States, proxies for the identification of hail are developed from the GPM Core Observatory satellite observables. The full capabilities of the GPM Core Observatory are tested by analyzing more than 20 observables and adopting the hydrometeor classification on the basis of ground-based polarimetric measurements being truth. The proxies have been tested using the critical success index (CSI) as a verification measure. The hail-detection algorithm that is based on the mean Ku-band reflectivity in the mixed-phase layer performs the best of all considered proxies (CSI of 45%). Outside the dual-frequency precipitation radar swath, the polarization-corrected temperature at 18.7 GHz shows the greatest potential for hail detection among all GPM Microwave Imager channels (CSI of 26% at a threshold value of 261 K). When dual-variable proxies are considered, the combination involving the mixed-phase reflectivity values at both Ku and Ka bands outperforms all of the other proxies, with a CSI of 49%. The best-performing radar–radiometer algorithm is based on the mixed-phase reflectivity at Ku band and on the brightness temperature (TB) at 10.7 GHz (CSI of 46%). When only radiometric data are available, the algorithm that is based on the TBs at 36.6 and 166 GHz is the most efficient, with a CSI of 27.5%.
Abstract
By exploiting an abundant number of extreme storms observed simultaneously by the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission Core Observatory satellite’s suite of sensors and by the ground-based S-band Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD) network over the continental United States, proxies for the identification of hail are developed from the GPM Core Observatory satellite observables. The full capabilities of the GPM Core Observatory are tested by analyzing more than 20 observables and adopting the hydrometeor classification on the basis of ground-based polarimetric measurements being truth. The proxies have been tested using the critical success index (CSI) as a verification measure. The hail-detection algorithm that is based on the mean Ku-band reflectivity in the mixed-phase layer performs the best of all considered proxies (CSI of 45%). Outside the dual-frequency precipitation radar swath, the polarization-corrected temperature at 18.7 GHz shows the greatest potential for hail detection among all GPM Microwave Imager channels (CSI of 26% at a threshold value of 261 K). When dual-variable proxies are considered, the combination involving the mixed-phase reflectivity values at both Ku and Ka bands outperforms all of the other proxies, with a CSI of 49%. The best-performing radar–radiometer algorithm is based on the mixed-phase reflectivity at Ku band and on the brightness temperature (TB) at 10.7 GHz (CSI of 46%). When only radiometric data are available, the algorithm that is based on the TBs at 36.6 and 166 GHz is the most efficient, with a CSI of 27.5%.
The instruments on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite have been observing storms as well as rainfall since December 1997. This paper shows the results of a systematic search through seven full years of the TRMM database to find indicators of uncommonly intense storms. These include strong (> 40 dBZ) radar echoes extending to great heights, high lightning flash rates, and very low brightness temperatures at 37 and 85 GHz. These are used as proxy variables, indicating powerful convective updrafts. The main physical principles supporting this assertion involve the effects of such updrafts in producing and lofting large ice particles high into the storm, where TRMM's radar easily detects them near storm top. TRMM's passive microwave radiometer detects the large integrated ice water path as very low brightness temperatures, while high lightning flash rates are a physically related but instrumentally independent indicator. The geographical locations of these very intense convective storms demonstrate strong regional preferences for certain land areas while they are extremely rare over tropical oceans. Favored locations include the south-central United States, southeast South America, and equatorial Africa. Other regions have extreme storms mainly in specific seasons, such as the Sahel, the Indian subcontinent, and northern Australia. Because intense storms are distributed quite differently from rainfall, these maps provide some new metrics for global models, if they are to simulate the type of convection as a component of our climate system.
The instruments on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite have been observing storms as well as rainfall since December 1997. This paper shows the results of a systematic search through seven full years of the TRMM database to find indicators of uncommonly intense storms. These include strong (> 40 dBZ) radar echoes extending to great heights, high lightning flash rates, and very low brightness temperatures at 37 and 85 GHz. These are used as proxy variables, indicating powerful convective updrafts. The main physical principles supporting this assertion involve the effects of such updrafts in producing and lofting large ice particles high into the storm, where TRMM's radar easily detects them near storm top. TRMM's passive microwave radiometer detects the large integrated ice water path as very low brightness temperatures, while high lightning flash rates are a physically related but instrumentally independent indicator. The geographical locations of these very intense convective storms demonstrate strong regional preferences for certain land areas while they are extremely rare over tropical oceans. Favored locations include the south-central United States, southeast South America, and equatorial Africa. Other regions have extreme storms mainly in specific seasons, such as the Sahel, the Indian subcontinent, and northern Australia. Because intense storms are distributed quite differently from rainfall, these maps provide some new metrics for global models, if they are to simulate the type of convection as a component of our climate system.
Abstract
Relationships between lightning flashes and thunderstorm kinematics and microphysics are important for applications such as nowcasting of convective intensity. These relationships are influenced by cloud electrification structures and have been shown to vary in anomalously electrified thunderstorms. This study addresses transitional relationships between active charge structure and lightning flash location in the context of kinematic and microphysical updraft characteristics during the development of an anomalously electrified supercell thunderstorm in the Tennessee Valley on 10 April 2009. The initial charge structure within the updraft was characterized as an anomalous dipole in which positive charge was inferred in regions of precipitation ice (i.e., graupel and hail) and negative charge was inferred in regions of cloud ice (i.e., aggregates and ice crystals). During subsequent development of the anomalous charge structure, additional minor charge layers as well as evidence of increasing horizontal complexity were observed. Microphysical and kinematic characteristics of the charge structure also evolved to include increasing observations of negative charge in precipitation ice regions, indicating the emergence of more prominent normal charging alongside dominant anomalous charging. Simultaneously, lightning flash initiation locations were also increasingly observed in regions of faster updrafts and stronger horizontal gradients in updraft speed. It is suggested that continuous variability in charging behavior over mesogamma spatial scales influenced the evolution of lightning flash locations with respect to the updraft structure. Further work is necessary to determine how this variability may impact lightning flash relationships, including lightning flash rate, with bulk microphysical and kinematic characteristics and related applications.
Abstract
Relationships between lightning flashes and thunderstorm kinematics and microphysics are important for applications such as nowcasting of convective intensity. These relationships are influenced by cloud electrification structures and have been shown to vary in anomalously electrified thunderstorms. This study addresses transitional relationships between active charge structure and lightning flash location in the context of kinematic and microphysical updraft characteristics during the development of an anomalously electrified supercell thunderstorm in the Tennessee Valley on 10 April 2009. The initial charge structure within the updraft was characterized as an anomalous dipole in which positive charge was inferred in regions of precipitation ice (i.e., graupel and hail) and negative charge was inferred in regions of cloud ice (i.e., aggregates and ice crystals). During subsequent development of the anomalous charge structure, additional minor charge layers as well as evidence of increasing horizontal complexity were observed. Microphysical and kinematic characteristics of the charge structure also evolved to include increasing observations of negative charge in precipitation ice regions, indicating the emergence of more prominent normal charging alongside dominant anomalous charging. Simultaneously, lightning flash initiation locations were also increasingly observed in regions of faster updrafts and stronger horizontal gradients in updraft speed. It is suggested that continuous variability in charging behavior over mesogamma spatial scales influenced the evolution of lightning flash locations with respect to the updraft structure. Further work is necessary to determine how this variability may impact lightning flash relationships, including lightning flash rate, with bulk microphysical and kinematic characteristics and related applications.
Abstract
This work addresses the long-term relative occurrence of cloud-to-ground (CG) and intracloud (IC; no attachment to ground) flashes for the contiguous United States (CONUS). It expands upon an earlier analysis by Boccippio et al. who employed 4-yr datasets provided by the U.S. National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) and the Optical Transient Detector (OTD). Today, the duration of the NLDN historical dataset has more than tripled, and OTD data can be supplemented with data from the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS). This work is timely, given the launch of GOES-16, which includes the world’s first geostationary lightning mapper that will observe total lightning (IC and CG) over the Americas and adjacent ocean regions. Findings support earlier results indicating factor-of-10 variations in the IC:CG ratio throughout CONUS, with climatological IC fraction varying between 0.3 and greater than 0.9. The largest values are seen in the Pacific Northwest, central California, and where Colorado borders Kansas and Nebraska. An uncertainty analysis indicates that the large values in the northwest and central California are likely not due to measurement uncertainty. The high IC:CG ratio (>4) throughout much of Texas reported by Boccippio et al. is not supported by this longer-term climatology. There is no clear evidence of differences in IC fraction between land and coastal ocean. Lightning characteristics in six selected large regions show a consistent positive relationship between IC fraction and the percent of positive CG flashes, irrespective of lightning incidence (flash density), dominant season, or diurnal maximum period.
Abstract
This work addresses the long-term relative occurrence of cloud-to-ground (CG) and intracloud (IC; no attachment to ground) flashes for the contiguous United States (CONUS). It expands upon an earlier analysis by Boccippio et al. who employed 4-yr datasets provided by the U.S. National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) and the Optical Transient Detector (OTD). Today, the duration of the NLDN historical dataset has more than tripled, and OTD data can be supplemented with data from the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS). This work is timely, given the launch of GOES-16, which includes the world’s first geostationary lightning mapper that will observe total lightning (IC and CG) over the Americas and adjacent ocean regions. Findings support earlier results indicating factor-of-10 variations in the IC:CG ratio throughout CONUS, with climatological IC fraction varying between 0.3 and greater than 0.9. The largest values are seen in the Pacific Northwest, central California, and where Colorado borders Kansas and Nebraska. An uncertainty analysis indicates that the large values in the northwest and central California are likely not due to measurement uncertainty. The high IC:CG ratio (>4) throughout much of Texas reported by Boccippio et al. is not supported by this longer-term climatology. There is no clear evidence of differences in IC fraction between land and coastal ocean. Lightning characteristics in six selected large regions show a consistent positive relationship between IC fraction and the percent of positive CG flashes, irrespective of lightning incidence (flash density), dominant season, or diurnal maximum period.
Abstract
Two new approaches are proposed and developed for making time- and space-dependent, quantitative short-term forecasts of lightning threats, and a blend of these approaches is devised that capitalizes on the strengths of each. The new methods are distinctive in that they are based entirely on the ice-phase hydrometeor fields generated by regional cloud-resolving numerical simulations, such as those produced by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. These methods are justified by established observational evidence linking aspects of the precipitating ice hydrometeor fields to total flash rates. The methods are straightforward and easy to implement, and offer an effective near-term alternative to the incorporation of complex and costly cloud electrification schemes into numerical models.
One method is based on upward fluxes of precipitating ice hydrometeors in the mixed-phase region at the −15°C level, while the second method is based on the vertically integrated amounts of ice hydrometeors in each model grid column. Each method can be calibrated by comparing domain-wide statistics of the peak values of simulated flash-rate proxy fields against domain-wide peak total lightning flash-rate density data from observations. Tests show that the first method is able to capture much of the temporal variability of the lightning threat, while the second method does a better job of depicting the areal coverage of the threat. The blended solution proposed in this work is designed to retain most of the temporal sensitivity of the first method, while adding the improved spatial coverage of the second.
Simulations of selected diverse North Alabama cases show that the WRF can distinguish the general character of most convective events, and that the methods employed herein show promise as a means of generating quantitatively realistic fields of lightning threat. However, because the models tend to have more difficulty in predicting the instantaneous placement of storms, forecasts of the detailed location of the lightning threat based on single simulations can be in error. Although these model shortcomings presently limit the precision of lightning threat forecasts from individual runs of current generation models, the techniques proposed herein should continue to be applicable as newer and more accurate physically based model versions, physical parameterizations, initialization techniques, and ensembles of forecasts become available.
Abstract
Two new approaches are proposed and developed for making time- and space-dependent, quantitative short-term forecasts of lightning threats, and a blend of these approaches is devised that capitalizes on the strengths of each. The new methods are distinctive in that they are based entirely on the ice-phase hydrometeor fields generated by regional cloud-resolving numerical simulations, such as those produced by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. These methods are justified by established observational evidence linking aspects of the precipitating ice hydrometeor fields to total flash rates. The methods are straightforward and easy to implement, and offer an effective near-term alternative to the incorporation of complex and costly cloud electrification schemes into numerical models.
One method is based on upward fluxes of precipitating ice hydrometeors in the mixed-phase region at the −15°C level, while the second method is based on the vertically integrated amounts of ice hydrometeors in each model grid column. Each method can be calibrated by comparing domain-wide statistics of the peak values of simulated flash-rate proxy fields against domain-wide peak total lightning flash-rate density data from observations. Tests show that the first method is able to capture much of the temporal variability of the lightning threat, while the second method does a better job of depicting the areal coverage of the threat. The blended solution proposed in this work is designed to retain most of the temporal sensitivity of the first method, while adding the improved spatial coverage of the second.
Simulations of selected diverse North Alabama cases show that the WRF can distinguish the general character of most convective events, and that the methods employed herein show promise as a means of generating quantitatively realistic fields of lightning threat. However, because the models tend to have more difficulty in predicting the instantaneous placement of storms, forecasts of the detailed location of the lightning threat based on single simulations can be in error. Although these model shortcomings presently limit the precision of lightning threat forecasts from individual runs of current generation models, the techniques proposed herein should continue to be applicable as newer and more accurate physically based model versions, physical parameterizations, initialization techniques, and ensembles of forecasts become available.
Abstract
The bulk radar reflectivity structures, 85- and 37-GHz brightness temperatures, and lightning characteristics of precipitating systems in tropical Africa, South America, the east Pacific, and west Pacific are documented using data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite during August, September, and October of 1998. The particular focus is on precipitation features [defined as a contiguous area ≥75 km2 with either a near-surface reflectivity ≥20 dBZ or an 85-GHz polarization-corrected temperature (PCT) ≤ 250 K] with appreciable rainfall, which account for the bulk of the total rainfall and lightning flash density in their respective regions. Systems over the tropical continents typically have greater magnitudes of reflectivity extending to higher altitudes than tropical oceanic systems. This is consistent with the observation of stronger ice scattering signatures (lower 85- and 37-GHz PCT) in the systems over land. However, when normalized by reflectivity heights, tropical continental features consistently have higher 85-GHz PCT than tropical oceanic features. It is inferred that greater supercooled water contents aloft in the tropical continental systems contribute to this brightness temperature difference.
Lightning (as detected by the Lightning Imaging Sensor) is much more likely in tropical continental features than tropical oceanic features with similar brightness temperatures or similar reflectivity heights. Vertical profiles of radar reflectivity add additional information to the nonunique lightning–brightness temperature relationships showing that features with lightning tend to have greater magnitudes of reflectivity and smaller decreases of reflectivity with height above the freezing level than systems without detected lightning.
Regional comparisons of the lightning, radar, and microwave signatures of precipitating features show that, over the oceans, the west Pacific has the highest frequency of intense precipitation features (by minimum PCT or maximum reflectivity height). Over land, the intense precipitation features occur more frequently in Africa. These observations are consistent with the relative differences in lightning flash density between the land and ocean regions. The quantitative database of land and ocean features presented here provides a substantial observational framework against which cloud and radiative transfer model results can be tested.
Abstract
The bulk radar reflectivity structures, 85- and 37-GHz brightness temperatures, and lightning characteristics of precipitating systems in tropical Africa, South America, the east Pacific, and west Pacific are documented using data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite during August, September, and October of 1998. The particular focus is on precipitation features [defined as a contiguous area ≥75 km2 with either a near-surface reflectivity ≥20 dBZ or an 85-GHz polarization-corrected temperature (PCT) ≤ 250 K] with appreciable rainfall, which account for the bulk of the total rainfall and lightning flash density in their respective regions. Systems over the tropical continents typically have greater magnitudes of reflectivity extending to higher altitudes than tropical oceanic systems. This is consistent with the observation of stronger ice scattering signatures (lower 85- and 37-GHz PCT) in the systems over land. However, when normalized by reflectivity heights, tropical continental features consistently have higher 85-GHz PCT than tropical oceanic features. It is inferred that greater supercooled water contents aloft in the tropical continental systems contribute to this brightness temperature difference.
Lightning (as detected by the Lightning Imaging Sensor) is much more likely in tropical continental features than tropical oceanic features with similar brightness temperatures or similar reflectivity heights. Vertical profiles of radar reflectivity add additional information to the nonunique lightning–brightness temperature relationships showing that features with lightning tend to have greater magnitudes of reflectivity and smaller decreases of reflectivity with height above the freezing level than systems without detected lightning.
Regional comparisons of the lightning, radar, and microwave signatures of precipitating features show that, over the oceans, the west Pacific has the highest frequency of intense precipitation features (by minimum PCT or maximum reflectivity height). Over land, the intense precipitation features occur more frequently in Africa. These observations are consistent with the relative differences in lightning flash density between the land and ocean regions. The quantitative database of land and ocean features presented here provides a substantial observational framework against which cloud and radiative transfer model results can be tested.
Abstract
The Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) is an instrument designed to continuously monitor lightning. It is on the GOES-16 and GOES-17 satellites, viewing much of the Western Hemisphere equatorward of 55°. Besides recording lightning-flash information, it transmits background visible-band images of its field of view every 2.5 min. The background images are not calibrated or geolocated, and they only have ~10-km grid spacing, but their 2.5-min sampling can potentially fill temporal gaps between full-disk imagery from the GOES satellites’ Advanced Baseline Imager. This paper applies an initial calibration and geolocation of the GLM background images and focuses on animations for two cases: a volcanic eruption in Guatemala and a severe thunderstorm complex in Argentina. Those locations typically have 10-min intervals between full-disk scans. Prior to April 2019, the interval was 15 min. Despite coarse horizontal resolution, the rapid updates from GLM background images appear to be useful in these cases. The 3 June 2018 eruption of Fuego Volcano appears in the GLM background imagery as an initial darkening of the pixels very near the volcano and then an outward expansion of the dark ash cloud. The GLM background imagery lacks horizontal textural detail but compensates for this lack with temporal detail. The ash cloud resembles a dark blob steadily expanding from frame to frame. Animation of the severe thunderstorm scene reveals vertical wind shear, with northerly low-level flow across a growing cumulus field and west-northwesterly upper-level flow at anvil level. Convective initiation is seen, as are propagating outflow boundaries and overshooting convective cloud tops.
Abstract
The Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) is an instrument designed to continuously monitor lightning. It is on the GOES-16 and GOES-17 satellites, viewing much of the Western Hemisphere equatorward of 55°. Besides recording lightning-flash information, it transmits background visible-band images of its field of view every 2.5 min. The background images are not calibrated or geolocated, and they only have ~10-km grid spacing, but their 2.5-min sampling can potentially fill temporal gaps between full-disk imagery from the GOES satellites’ Advanced Baseline Imager. This paper applies an initial calibration and geolocation of the GLM background images and focuses on animations for two cases: a volcanic eruption in Guatemala and a severe thunderstorm complex in Argentina. Those locations typically have 10-min intervals between full-disk scans. Prior to April 2019, the interval was 15 min. Despite coarse horizontal resolution, the rapid updates from GLM background images appear to be useful in these cases. The 3 June 2018 eruption of Fuego Volcano appears in the GLM background imagery as an initial darkening of the pixels very near the volcano and then an outward expansion of the dark ash cloud. The GLM background imagery lacks horizontal textural detail but compensates for this lack with temporal detail. The ash cloud resembles a dark blob steadily expanding from frame to frame. Animation of the severe thunderstorm scene reveals vertical wind shear, with northerly low-level flow across a growing cumulus field and west-northwesterly upper-level flow at anvil level. Convective initiation is seen, as are propagating outflow boundaries and overshooting convective cloud tops.
Abstract
Using passive microwave brightness temperatures Tb from the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Microwave Imager (GMI) and hydrometeor identification (HID) data from dual-polarization ground radars, empirical lookup tables are developed for a multifrequency estimation of the likelihood a precipitation column includes certain hydrometeor types, as a function of Tb . Eight years of collocated Tb and HID data from the GPM Validation Network are used for development and testing of the GMI-based HID retrieval, with 2015–20 used for training and 2021–22 used for testing the GMI-based HID retrieval. The occurrence of profiles with hail and graupel are both slightly underpredicted by the lookup tables, but the percentage of profiles predicted is highly correlated with the percentage observed (0.98 correlation coefficient for hail and 0.99 for graupel). By having snow appear before rain in the hierarchy, the sample size for rain, without ice aloft, is fairly small, and the percentage of rain profiles is less than snow for all Tb .
Abstract
Using passive microwave brightness temperatures Tb from the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Microwave Imager (GMI) and hydrometeor identification (HID) data from dual-polarization ground radars, empirical lookup tables are developed for a multifrequency estimation of the likelihood a precipitation column includes certain hydrometeor types, as a function of Tb . Eight years of collocated Tb and HID data from the GPM Validation Network are used for development and testing of the GMI-based HID retrieval, with 2015–20 used for training and 2021–22 used for testing the GMI-based HID retrieval. The occurrence of profiles with hail and graupel are both slightly underpredicted by the lookup tables, but the percentage of profiles predicted is highly correlated with the percentage observed (0.98 correlation coefficient for hail and 0.99 for graupel). By having snow appear before rain in the hierarchy, the sample size for rain, without ice aloft, is fairly small, and the percentage of rain profiles is less than snow for all Tb .
Abstract
During the 1998 and 2001 hurricane seasons of the western Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico, the Advanced Microwave Precipitation Radiometer (AMPR), the ER-2 Doppler (EDOP) radar, and the Lightning Instrument Package (LIP) were flown aboard the NASA ER-2 high-altitude aircraft as part of the Third Convection and Moisture Experiment (CAMEX-3) and the Fourth Convection and Moisture Experiment (CAMEX-4). Several hurricanes, tropical storms, and other precipitation systems were sampled during these experiments. An oceanic rainfall screening technique has been developed using AMPR passive microwave observations of these systems collected at frequencies of 10.7, 19.35, 37.1, and 85.5 GHz. This technique combines the information content of the four AMPR frequencies regarding the gross vertical structure of hydrometeors into an intuitive and easily executable precipitation mapping format. The results have been verified using vertical profiles of EDOP reflectivity and lower-altitude horizontal reflectivity scans collected by the NOAA WP-3D Orion radar. Matching the rainfall classification results with coincident electric field information collected by the LIP readily identifies convective rain regions within the precipitation fields. This technique shows promise as a real-time research and analysis tool for monitoring vertical updraft strength and convective intensity from airborne platforms such as remotely operated or uninhabited aerial vehicles. The technique is analyzed and discussed for a wide variety of precipitation types using the 26 August 1998 observations of Hurricane Bonnie near landfall.
Abstract
During the 1998 and 2001 hurricane seasons of the western Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico, the Advanced Microwave Precipitation Radiometer (AMPR), the ER-2 Doppler (EDOP) radar, and the Lightning Instrument Package (LIP) were flown aboard the NASA ER-2 high-altitude aircraft as part of the Third Convection and Moisture Experiment (CAMEX-3) and the Fourth Convection and Moisture Experiment (CAMEX-4). Several hurricanes, tropical storms, and other precipitation systems were sampled during these experiments. An oceanic rainfall screening technique has been developed using AMPR passive microwave observations of these systems collected at frequencies of 10.7, 19.35, 37.1, and 85.5 GHz. This technique combines the information content of the four AMPR frequencies regarding the gross vertical structure of hydrometeors into an intuitive and easily executable precipitation mapping format. The results have been verified using vertical profiles of EDOP reflectivity and lower-altitude horizontal reflectivity scans collected by the NOAA WP-3D Orion radar. Matching the rainfall classification results with coincident electric field information collected by the LIP readily identifies convective rain regions within the precipitation fields. This technique shows promise as a real-time research and analysis tool for monitoring vertical updraft strength and convective intensity from airborne platforms such as remotely operated or uninhabited aerial vehicles. The technique is analyzed and discussed for a wide variety of precipitation types using the 26 August 1998 observations of Hurricane Bonnie near landfall.
Abstract
Hurricane Patricia was a historic tropical cyclone that broke many records, such as intensification rate, peak intensity, and overwater weakening rate, during its brief 4-day lifetime in late October 2015 in the eastern Pacific basin. Patricia confounded all of the intensity forecast guidance owing to its rapid intensity changes. Fortunately, the hurricane-penetrating National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration WP-3D and U.S. Air Force C-130 aircraft and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration WB-57 high-altitude jet, under support of the Office of Naval Research, conducted missions through and over Patricia prior to and during its extreme intensity changes on all 4 days, while an extensive array of pressure sensors sampled Patricia after landfall. The observations collected from these missions include traditional data sources such as airborne Doppler radar and flight-level instruments as well as new data sources like a high-density array of dropsondes released from high-altitude and wide-swath radiometer. The combination of data from these sources and from satellites provides an excellent opportunity to investigate the physical processes responsible for Patricia’s structure and evolution and offers the potential to improve forecasts of tropical cyclone rapid intensity changes. This paper provides an overview of Patricia as well as the data collected during the aircraft missions.
Abstract
Hurricane Patricia was a historic tropical cyclone that broke many records, such as intensification rate, peak intensity, and overwater weakening rate, during its brief 4-day lifetime in late October 2015 in the eastern Pacific basin. Patricia confounded all of the intensity forecast guidance owing to its rapid intensity changes. Fortunately, the hurricane-penetrating National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration WP-3D and U.S. Air Force C-130 aircraft and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration WB-57 high-altitude jet, under support of the Office of Naval Research, conducted missions through and over Patricia prior to and during its extreme intensity changes on all 4 days, while an extensive array of pressure sensors sampled Patricia after landfall. The observations collected from these missions include traditional data sources such as airborne Doppler radar and flight-level instruments as well as new data sources like a high-density array of dropsondes released from high-altitude and wide-swath radiometer. The combination of data from these sources and from satellites provides an excellent opportunity to investigate the physical processes responsible for Patricia’s structure and evolution and offers the potential to improve forecasts of tropical cyclone rapid intensity changes. This paper provides an overview of Patricia as well as the data collected during the aircraft missions.
