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John R. Gyakum
,
Marco Carrera
,
Da-Lin Zhang
,
Steve Miller
,
James Caveen
,
Robert Benoit
,
Thomas Black
,
Andrea Buzzi
,
Cliément Chouinard
,
M. Fantini
,
C. Folloni
,
Jack J. Katzfey
,
Ying-Hwa Kuo
,
François Lalaurette
,
Simon Low-Nam
,
Jocelyn Mailhot
,
P. Malguzzi
,
John L. McGregor
,
Masaomi Nakamura
,
Greg Tripoli
, and
Clive Wilson

Abstract

The authors evaluate the performance of current regional models in an intercomparison project for a case of explosive secondary marine cyclogenesis occurring during the Canadian Atlantic Storms Project and the Genesis of Atlantic Lows Experiment of 1986. Several systematic errors are found that have been identified in the refereed literature in prior years. There is a high (low) sea level pressure bias and a cold (warm) tropospheric temperature error in the oceanic (continental) regions. Though individual model participants produce central pressures of the secondary cyclone close to the observed during the final stages of its life cycle, systematically weak systems are simulated during the critical early stages of the cyclogenesis. Additionally, the simulations produce an excessively weak (strong) continental anticyclone (cyclone); implications of these errors are discussed in terms of the secondary cyclogenesis. Little relationship between strong performance in predicting the mass field and skill in predicting a measurable amount of precipitation is found. The bias scores in the precipitation study indicate a tendency for all models to overforecast precipitation. Results for the measurable threshold (0.2 mm) indicate the largest gain in precipitation scores results from increasing the horizontal resolution from 100 to 50 km, with a negligible benefit occurring as a consequence of increasing the resolution from 50 to 25 km. The importance of a horizontal resolution increase from 100 to 50 km is also generally shown for the errors in the mass field. However, little improvement in the prediction of the cyclogenesis is found by increasing the horizontal resolution from 50 to 25 km.

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Masashi Nagata
,
Lance Leslie
,
Yoshio Kurihara
,
Russell L. Elsberry
,
Masanori Yamasaki
,
Hirotaka Kamahori
,
Robert Abbey Jr.
,
Kotaro Bessho
,
Javier Calvo
,
Johnny C. L. Chan
,
Peter Clark
,
Michel Desgagne
,
Song-You Hong
,
Detlev Majewski
,
Piero Malguzzi
,
John McGregor
,
Hiroshi Mino
,
Akihiko Murata
,
Jason Nachamkin
,
Michel Roch
, and
Clive Wilson

The Third Comparison of Mesoscale Prediction and Research Experiment (COMPARE) workshop was held in Tokyo, Japan, on 13–15 December 1999, cosponsored by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), Japan Science and Technology Agency, and the World Meteorological Organization. The third case of COMPARE focuses on an event of explosive tropical cyclone [Typhoon Flo (9019)] development that occurred during the cooperative three field experiments, the Tropical Cyclone Motion experiment 1990, Special Experiment Concerning Recurvature and Unusual Motion, and TYPHOON-90, conducted in the western North Pacific in August and September 1990. Fourteen models from nine countries have participated in at least a part of a set of experiments using a combination of four initial conditions provided and three horizontal resolutions. The resultant forecasts were collected, processed, and verified with analyses and observational data at JMA. Archived datasets have been prepared to be distributed to participating members for use in further evaluation studies.

In the workshop, preliminary conclusions from the evaluation study were presented and discussed in the light of initiatives of the experiment and from the viewpoints of tropical cyclone experts. Initial conditions, depending on both large-scale analyses and vortex bogusing, have a large impact on tropical cyclone intensity predictions. Some models succeeded in predicting the explosive deepening of the target typhoon at least qualitatively in terms of the time evolution of central pressure. Horizontal grid spacing has a very large impact on tropical cyclone intensity prediction, while the impact of vertical resolution is less clear, with some models being very sensitive and others less so. The structure of and processes in the eyewall clouds with subsidence inside as well as boundary layer and moist physical processes are considered important in the explosive development of tropical cyclones. Follow-up research activities in this case were proposed to examine possible working hypotheses related to the explosive development.

New strategies for selection of future COMPARE cases were worked out, including seven suitability requirements to be met by candidate cases. The VORTEX95 case was withdrawn as a candidate, and two other possible cases were presented and discussed.

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Adam J. Clark
,
Israel L. Jirak
,
Burkely T. Gallo
,
Kent H. Knopfmeier
,
Brett Roberts
,
Makenzie Krocak
,
Jake Vancil
,
Kimberly A. Hoogewind
,
Nathan A. Dahl
,
Eric D. Loken
,
David Jahn
,
David Harrison
,
David Imy
,
Patrick Burke
,
Louis J. Wicker
,
Patrick S. Skinner
,
Pamela L. Heinselman
,
Patrick Marsh
,
Katie A. Wilson
,
Andrew R. Dean
,
Gerald J. Creager
,
Thomas A. Jones
,
Jidong Gao
,
Yunheng Wang
,
Montgomery Flora
,
Corey K. Potvin
,
Christopher A. Kerr
,
Nusrat Yussouf
,
Joshua Martin
,
Jorge Guerra
,
Brian C. Matilla
, and
Thomas J. Galarneau
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Christopher J. White
,
Daniela I. V. Domeisen
,
Nachiketa Acharya
,
Elijah A. Adefisan
,
Michael L. Anderson
,
Stella Aura
,
Ahmed A. Balogun
,
Douglas Bertram
,
Sonia Bluhm
,
David J. Brayshaw
,
Jethro Browell
,
Dominik Büeler
,
Andrew Charlton-Perez
,
Xandre Chourio
,
Isadora Christel
,
Caio A. S. Coelho
,
Michael J. DeFlorio
,
Luca Delle Monache
,
Francesca Di Giuseppe
,
Ana María García-Solórzano
,
Peter B. Gibson
,
Lisa Goddard
,
Carmen González Romero
,
Richard J. Graham
,
Robert M. Graham
,
Christian M. Grams
,
Alan Halford
,
W. T. Katty Huang
,
Kjeld Jensen
,
Mary Kilavi
,
Kamoru A. Lawal
,
Robert W. Lee
,
David MacLeod
,
Andrea Manrique-Suñén
,
Eduardo S. P. R. Martins
,
Carolyn J. Maxwell
,
William J. Merryfield
,
Ángel G. Muñoz
,
Eniola Olaniyan
,
George Otieno
,
John A. Oyedepo
,
Lluís Palma
,
Ilias G. Pechlivanidis
,
Diego Pons
,
F. Martin Ralph
,
Dirceu S. Reis Jr.
,
Tomas A. Remenyi
,
James S. Risbey
,
Donald J. C. Robertson
,
Andrew W. Robertson
,
Stefan Smith
,
Albert Soret
,
Ting Sun
,
Martin C. Todd
,
Carly R. Tozer
,
Francisco C. Vasconcelos Jr.
,
Ilaria Vigo
,
Duane E. Waliser
,
Fredrik Wetterhall
, and
Robert G. Wilson

Abstract

The subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictive time scale, encompassing lead times ranging from 2 weeks to a season, is at the frontier of forecasting science. Forecasts on this time scale provide opportunities for enhanced application-focused capabilities to complement existing weather and climate services and products. There is, however, a “knowledge–value” gap, where a lack of evidence and awareness of the potential socioeconomic benefits of S2S forecasts limits their wider uptake. To address this gap, here we present the first global community effort at summarizing relevant applications of S2S forecasts to guide further decision-making and support the continued development of S2S forecasts and related services. Focusing on 12 sectoral case studies spanning public health, agriculture, water resource management, renewable energy and utilities, and emergency management and response, we draw on recent advancements to explore their application and utility. These case studies mark a significant step forward in moving from potential to actual S2S forecasting applications. We show that by placing user needs at the forefront of S2S forecast development—demonstrating both skill and utility across sectors—this dialogue can be used to help promote and accelerate the awareness, value, and cogeneration of S2S forecasts. We also highlight that while S2S forecasts are increasingly gaining interest among users, incorporating probabilistic S2S forecasts into existing decision-making operations is not trivial. Nevertheless, S2S forecasting represents a significant opportunity to generate useful, usable, and actionable forecast applications for and with users that will increasingly unlock the potential of this forecasting time scale.

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Adam J. Clark
,
Israel L. Jirak
,
Burkely T. Gallo
,
Brett Roberts
,
Andrew R. Dean
,
Kent H. Knopfmeier
,
Louis J. Wicker
,
Makenzie Krocak
,
Patrick S. Skinner
,
Pamela L. Heinselman
,
Katie A. Wilson
,
Jake Vancil
,
Kimberly A. Hoogewind
,
Nathan A. Dahl
,
Gerald J. Creager
,
Thomas A. Jones
,
Jidong Gao
,
Yunheng Wang
,
Eric D. Loken
,
Montgomery Flora
,
Christopher A. Kerr
,
Nusrat Yussouf
,
Scott R. Dembek
,
William Miller
,
Joshua Martin
,
Jorge Guerra
,
Brian Matilla
,
David Jahn
,
David Harrison
,
David Imy
, and
Michael C. Coniglio
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Stephen W. Nesbitt
,
Paola V. Salio
,
Eldo Ávila
,
Phillip Bitzer
,
Lawrence Carey
,
V. Chandrasekar
,
Wiebke Deierling
,
Francina Dominguez
,
Maria Eugenia Dillon
,
C. Marcelo Garcia
,
David Gochis
,
Steven Goodman
,
Deanna A. Hence
,
Karen A. Kosiba
,
Matthew R. Kumjian
,
Timothy Lang
,
Lorena Medina Luna
,
James Marquis
,
Robert Marshall
,
Lynn A. McMurdie
,
Ernani de Lima Nascimento
,
Kristen L. Rasmussen
,
Rita Roberts
,
Angela K. Rowe
,
Juan José Ruiz
,
Eliah F.M.T. São Sabbas
,
A. Celeste Saulo
,
Russ S. Schumacher
,
Yanina Garcia Skabar
,
Luiz Augusto Toledo Machado
,
Robert J. Trapp
,
Adam C. Varble
,
James Wilson
,
Joshua Wurman
,
Edward J. Zipser
,
Ivan Arias
,
Hernán Bechis
, and
Maxwell A. Grover

Abstract

This article provides an overview of the experimental design, execution, education and public outreach, data collection, and initial scientific results from the Remote Sensing of Electrification, Lightning, and Mesoscale/Microscale Processes with Adaptive Ground Observations (RELAMPAGO) field campaign. RELAMPAGO was a major field campaign conducted in the Córdoba and Mendoza provinces in Argentina and western Rio Grande do Sul State in Brazil in 2018–19 that involved more than 200 scientists and students from the United States, Argentina, and Brazil. This campaign was motivated by the physical processes and societal impacts of deep convection that frequently initiates in this region, often along the complex terrain of the Sierras de Córdoba and Andes, and often grows rapidly upscale into dangerous storms that impact society. Observed storms during the experiment produced copious hail, intense flash flooding, extreme lightning flash rates, and other unusual lightning phenomena, but few tornadoes. The five distinct scientific foci of RELAMPAGO—convection initiation, severe weather, upscale growth, hydrometeorology, and lightning and electrification—are described, as are the deployment strategies to observe physical processes relevant to these foci. The campaign’s international cooperation, forecasting efforts, and mission planning strategies enabled a successful data collection effort. In addition, the legacy of RELAMPAGO in South America, including extensive multinational education, public outreach, and social media data gathering associated with the campaign, is summarized.

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Dennis Baldocchi
,
Eva Falge
,
Lianhong Gu
,
Richard Olson
,
David Hollinger
,
Steve Running
,
Peter Anthoni
,
Ch. Bernhofer
,
Kenneth Davis
,
Robert Evans
,
Jose Fuentes
,
Allen Goldstein
,
Gabriel Katul
,
Beverly Law
,
Xuhui Lee
,
Yadvinder Malhi
,
Tilden Meyers
,
William Munger
,
Walt Oechel
,
K. T. Paw U
,
Kim Pilegaard
,
H. P. Schmid
,
Riccardo Valentini
,
Shashi Verma
,
Timo Vesala
,
Kell Wilson
, and
Steve Wofsy

FLUXNET is a global network of micrometeorological flux measurement sites that measure the exchanges of carbon dioxide, water vapor, and energy between the biosphere and atmosphere. At present over 140 sites are operating on a long-term and continuous basis. Vegetation under study includes temperate conifer and broadleaved (deciduous and evergreen) forests, tropical and boreal forests, crops, grasslands, chaparral, wetlands, and tundra. Sites exist on five continents and their latitudinal distribution ranges from 70°N to 30°S.

FLUXNET has several primary functions. First, it provides infrastructure for compiling, archiving, and distributing carbon, water, and energy flux measurement, and meteorological, plant, and soil data to the science community. (Data and site information are available online at the FLUXNET Web site, http://www-eosdis.ornl.gov/FLUXNET/.) Second, the project supports calibration and flux intercomparison activities. This activity ensures that data from the regional networks are intercomparable. And third, FLUXNET supports the synthesis, discussion, and communication of ideas and data by supporting project scientists, workshops, and visiting scientists. The overarching goal is to provide information for validating computations of net primary productivity, evaporation, and energy absorption that are being generated by sensors mounted on the NASA Terra satellite.

Data being compiled by FLUXNET are being used to quantify and compare magnitudes and dynamics of annual ecosystem carbon and water balances, to quantify the response of stand-scale carbon dioxide and water vapor flux densities to controlling biotic and abiotic factors, and to validate a hierarchy of soil–plant–atmosphere trace gas exchange models. Findings so far include 1) net CO2 exchange of temperate broadleaved forests increases by about 5.7 g C m−2 day−1 for each additional day that the growing season is extended; 2) the sensitivity of net ecosystem CO2 exchange to sunlight doubles if the sky is cloudy rather than clear; 3) the spectrum of CO2 flux density exhibits peaks at timescales of days, weeks, and years, and a spectral gap exists at the month timescale; 4) the optimal temperature of net CO2 exchange varies with mean summer temperature; and 5) stand age affects carbon dioxide and water vapor flux densities.

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