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Joseph B. Olson
,
Jaymes S. Kenyon
,
Irina Djalalova
,
Laura Bianco
,
David D. Turner
,
Yelena Pichugina
,
Aditya Choukulkar
,
Michael D. Toy
,
John M. Brown
,
Wayne M. Angevine
,
Elena Akish
,
Jian-Wen Bao
,
Pedro Jimenez
,
Branko Kosovic
,
Katherine A. Lundquist
,
Caroline Draxl
,
Julie K. Lundquist
,
Jim McCaa
,
Katherine McCaffrey
,
Kathy Lantz
,
Chuck Long
,
Jim Wilczak
,
Robert Banta
,
Melinda Marquis
,
Stephanie Redfern
,
Larry K. Berg
,
Will Shaw
, and
Joel Cline

Abstract

The primary goal of the Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2) is to advance the state-of-the-art of wind energy forecasting in complex terrain. To achieve this goal, a comprehensive 18-month field measurement campaign was conducted in the region of the Columbia River basin. The observations were used to diagnose and quantify systematic forecast errors in the operational High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model during weather events of particular concern to wind energy forecasting. Examples of such events are cold pools, gap flows, thermal troughs/marine pushes, mountain waves, and topographic wakes. WFIP2 model development has focused on the boundary layer and surface-layer schemes, cloud–radiation interaction, the representation of drag associated with subgrid-scale topography, and the representation of wind farms in the HRRR. Additionally, refinements to numerical methods have helped to improve some of the common forecast error modes, especially the high wind speed biases associated with early erosion of mountain–valley cold pools. This study describes the model development and testing undertaken during WFIP2 and demonstrates forecast improvements. Specifically, WFIP2 found that mean absolute errors in rotor-layer wind speed forecasts could be reduced by 5%–20% in winter by improving the turbulent mixing lengths, horizontal diffusion, and gravity wave drag. The model improvements made in WFIP2 are also shown to be applicable to regions outside of complex terrain. Ongoing and future challenges in model development will also be discussed.

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Bart Geerts
,
David Parsons
,
Conrad L. Ziegler
,
Tammy M. Weckwerth
,
Michael I. Biggerstaff
,
Richard D. Clark
,
Michael C. Coniglio
,
Belay B. Demoz
,
Richard A. Ferrare
,
William A. Gallus Jr.
,
Kevin Haghi
,
John M. Hanesiak
,
Petra M. Klein
,
Kevin R. Knupp
,
Karen Kosiba
,
Greg M. McFarquhar
,
James A. Moore
,
Amin R. Nehrir
,
Matthew D. Parker
,
James O. Pinto
,
Robert M. Rauber
,
Russ S. Schumacher
,
David D. Turner
,
Qing Wang
,
Xuguang Wang
,
Zhien Wang
, and
Joshua Wurman

Abstract

The central Great Plains region in North America has a nocturnal maximum in warm-season precipitation. Much of this precipitation comes from organized mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). This nocturnal maximum is counterintuitive in the sense that convective activity over the Great Plains is out of phase with the local generation of CAPE by solar heating of the surface. The lower troposphere in this nocturnal environment is typically characterized by a low-level jet (LLJ) just above a stable boundary layer (SBL), and convective available potential energy (CAPE) values that peak above the SBL, resulting in convection that may be elevated, with source air decoupled from the surface. Nocturnal MCS-induced cold pools often trigger undular bores and solitary waves within the SBL. A full understanding of the nocturnal precipitation maximum remains elusive, although it appears that bore-induced lifting and the LLJ may be instrumental to convection initiation and the maintenance of MCSs at night.

To gain insight into nocturnal MCSs, their essential ingredients, and paths toward improving the relatively poor predictive skill of nocturnal convection in weather and climate models, a large, multiagency field campaign called Plains Elevated Convection At Night (PECAN) was conducted in 2015. PECAN employed three research aircraft, an unprecedented coordinated array of nine mobile scanning radars, a fixed S-band radar, a unique mesoscale network of lower-tropospheric profiling systems called the PECAN Integrated Sounding Array (PISA), and numerous mobile-mesonet surface weather stations. The rich PECAN dataset is expected to improve our understanding and prediction of continental nocturnal warm-season precipitation. This article provides a summary of the PECAN field experiment and preliminary findings.

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Indirect and Semi-direct Aerosol Campaign

The Impact of Arctic Aerosols on Clouds

Greg M. McFarquhar
,
Steven Ghan
,
Johannes Verlinde
,
Alexei Korolev
,
J. Walter Strapp
,
Beat Schmid
,
Jason M. Tomlinson
,
Mengistu Wolde
,
Sarah D. Brooks
,
Dan Cziczo
,
Manvendra K. Dubey
,
Jiwen Fan
,
Connor Flynn
,
Ismail Gultepe
,
John Hubbe
,
Mary K. Gilles
,
Alexander Laskin
,
Paul Lawson
,
W. Richard Leaitch
,
Peter Liu
,
Xiaohong Liu
,
Dan Lubin
,
Claudio Mazzoleni
,
Ann-Marie Macdonald
,
Ryan C. Moffet
,
Hugh Morrison
,
Mikhail Ovchinnikov
,
Matthew D. Shupe
,
David D. Turner
,
Shaocheng Xie
,
Alla Zelenyuk
,
Kenny Bae
,
Matt Freer
, and
Andrew Glen

Abstract

A comprehensive dataset of microphysical and radiative properties of aerosols and clouds in the boundary layer in the vicinity of Barrow, Alaska, was collected in April 2008 during the Indirect and Semi-Direct Aerosol Campaign (ISDAC). ISDAC's primary aim was to examine the effects of aerosols, including those generated by Asian wildfires, on clouds that contain both liquid and ice. ISDAC utilized the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Pro- gram's permanent observational facilities at Barrow and specially deployed instruments measuring aerosol, ice fog, precipitation, and radiation. The National Research Council of Canada Convair-580 flew 27 sorties and collected data using an unprecedented 41 stateof- the-art cloud and aerosol instruments for more than 100 h on 12 different days. Aerosol compositions, including fresh and processed sea salt, biomassburning particles, organics, and sulfates mixed with organics, varied between flights. Observations in a dense arctic haze on 19 April and above, within, and below the single-layer stratocumulus on 8 and 26 April are enabling a process-oriented understanding of how aerosols affect arctic clouds. Inhomogeneities in reflectivity, a close coupling of upward and downward Doppler motion, and a nearly constant ice profile in the single-layer stratocumulus suggests that vertical mixing is responsible for its longevity observed during ISDAC. Data acquired in cirrus on flights between Barrow and Fairbanks, Alaska, are improving the understanding of the performance of cloud probes in ice. Ultimately, ISDAC data will improve the representation of cloud and aerosol processes in models covering a variety of spatial and temporal scales, and determine the extent to which surface measurements can provide retrievals of aerosols, clouds, precipitation, and radiative heating.

A supplement to this article is available online:

DOI: 10.1175/2010BAMS2935.2

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Taneil Uttal
,
Sandra Starkweather
,
James R. Drummond
,
Timo Vihma
,
Alexander P. Makshtas
,
Lisa S. Darby
,
John F. Burkhart
,
Christopher J. Cox
,
Lauren N. Schmeisser
,
Thomas Haiden
,
Marion Maturilli
,
Matthew D. Shupe
,
Gijs De Boer
,
Auromeet Saha
,
Andrey A. Grachev
,
Sara M. Crepinsek
,
Lori Bruhwiler
,
Barry Goodison
,
Bruce McArthur
,
Von P. Walden
,
Edward J. Dlugokencky
,
P. Ola G. Persson
,
Glen Lesins
,
Tuomas Laurila
,
John A. Ogren
,
Robert Stone
,
Charles N. Long
,
Sangeeta Sharma
,
Andreas Massling
,
David D. Turner
,
Diane M. Stanitski
,
Eija Asmi
,
Mika Aurela
,
Henrik Skov
,
Konstantinos Eleftheriadis
,
Aki Virkkula
,
Andrew Platt
,
Eirik J. Førland
,
Yoshihiro Iijima
,
Ingeborg E. Nielsen
,
Michael H. Bergin
,
Lauren Candlish
,
Nikita S. Zimov
,
Sergey A. Zimov
,
Norman T. O’Neill
,
Pierre F. Fogal
,
Rigel Kivi
,
Elena A. Konopleva-Akish
,
Johannes Verlinde
,
Vasily Y. Kustov
,
Brian Vasel
,
Viktor M. Ivakhov
,
Yrjö Viisanen
, and
Janet M. Intrieri

Abstract

International Arctic Systems for Observing the Atmosphere (IASOA) activities and partnerships were initiated as a part of the 2007–09 International Polar Year (IPY) and are expected to continue for many decades as a legacy program. The IASOA focus is on coordinating intensive measurements of the Arctic atmosphere collected in the United States, Canada, Russia, Norway, Finland, and Greenland to create synthesis science that leads to an understanding of why and not just how the Arctic atmosphere is evolving. The IASOA premise is that there are limitations with Arctic modeling and satellite observations that can only be addressed with boots-on-the-ground, in situ observations and that the potential of combining individual station and network measurements into an integrated observing system is tremendous. The IASOA vision is that by further integrating with other network observing programs focusing on hydrology, glaciology, oceanography, terrestrial, and biological systems it will be possible to understand the mechanisms of the entire Arctic system, perhaps well enough for humans to mitigate undesirable variations and adapt to inevitable change.

Full access
Diana Greenslade
,
Mark Hemer
,
Alex Babanin
,
Ryan Lowe
,
Ian Turner
,
Hannah Power
,
Ian Young
,
Daniel Ierodiaconou
,
Greg Hibbert
,
Greg Williams
,
Saima Aijaz
,
João Albuquerque
,
Stewart Allen
,
Michael Banner
,
Paul Branson
,
Steve Buchan
,
Andrew Burton
,
John Bye
,
Nick Cartwright
,
Amin Chabchoub
,
Frank Colberg
,
Stephanie Contardo
,
Francois Dufois
,
Craig Earl-Spurr
,
David Farr
,
Ian Goodwin
,
Jim Gunson
,
Jeff Hansen
,
David Hanslow
,
Mitchell Harley
,
Yasha Hetzel
,
Ron Hoeke
,
Nicole Jones
,
Michael Kinsela
,
Qingxiang Liu
,
Oleg Makarynskyy
,
Hayden Marcollo
,
Said Mazaheri
,
Jason McConochie
,
Grant Millar
,
Tim Moltmann
,
Neal Moodie
,
Joao Morim
,
Russel Morison
,
Jana Orszaghova
,
Charitha Pattiaratchi
,
Andrew Pomeroy
,
Roger Proctor
,
David Provis
,
Ruth Reef
,
Dirk Rijnsdorp
,
Martin Rutherford
,
Eric Schulz
,
Jake Shayer
,
Kristen Splinter
,
Craig Steinberg
,
Darrell Strauss
,
Greg Stuart
,
Graham Symonds
,
Karina Tarbath
,
Daniel Taylor
,
James Taylor
,
Darshani Thotagamuwage
,
Alessandro Toffoli
,
Alireza Valizadeh
,
Jonathan van Hazel
,
Guilherme Vieira da Silva
,
Moritz Wandres
,
Colin Whittaker
,
David Williams
,
Gundula Winter
,
Jiangtao Xu
,
Aihong Zhong
, and
Stefan Zieger

Abstract

The Australian marine research, industry, and stakeholder community has recently undertaken an extensive collaborative process to identify the highest national priorities for wind-waves research. This was undertaken under the auspices of the Forum for Operational Oceanography Surface Waves Working Group. The main steps in the process were first, soliciting possible research questions from the community via an online survey; second, reviewing the questions at a face-to-face workshop; and third, online ranking of the research questions by individuals. This process resulted in 15 identified priorities, covering research activities and the development of infrastructure. The top five priorities are 1) enhanced and updated nearshore and coastal bathymetry; 2) improved understanding of extreme sea states; 3) maintain and enhance the in situ buoy network; 4) improved data access and sharing; and 5) ensemble and probabilistic wave modeling and forecasting. In this paper, each of the 15 priorities is discussed in detail, providing insight into why each priority is important, and the current state of the art, both nationally and internationally, where relevant. While this process has been driven by Australian needs, it is likely that the results will be relevant to other marine-focused nations.

Free access
Diana Greenslade
,
Mark Hemer
,
Alex Babanin
,
Ryan Lowe
,
Ian Turner
,
Hannah Power
,
Ian Young
,
Daniel Ierodiaconou
,
Greg Hibbert
,
Greg Williams
,
Saima Aijaz
,
João Albuquerque
,
Stewart Allen
,
Michael Banner
,
Paul Branson
,
Steve Buchan
,
Andrew Burton
,
John Bye
,
Nick Cartwright
,
Amin Chabchoub
,
Frank Colberg
,
Stephanie Contardo
,
Francois Dufois
,
Craig Earl-Spurr
,
David Farr
,
Ian Goodwin
,
Jim Gunson
,
Jeff Hansen
,
David Hanslow
,
Mitchell Harley
,
Yasha Hetzel
,
Ron Hoeke
,
Nicole Jones
,
Michael Kinsela
,
Qingxiang Liu
,
Oleg Makarynskyy
,
Hayden Marcollo
,
Said Mazaheri
,
Jason McConochie
,
Grant Millar
,
Tim Moltmann
,
Neal Moodie
,
Joao Morim
,
Russel Morison
,
Jana Orszaghova
,
Charitha Pattiaratchi
,
Andrew Pomeroy
,
Roger Proctor
,
David Provis
,
Ruth Reef
,
Dirk Rijnsdorp
,
Martin Rutherford
,
Eric Schulz
,
Jake Shayer
,
Kristen Splinter
,
Craig Steinberg
,
Darrell Strauss
,
Greg Stuart
,
Graham Symonds
,
Karina Tarbath
,
Daniel Taylor
,
James Taylor
,
Darshani Thotagamuwage
,
Alessandro Toffoli
,
Alireza Valizadeh
,
Jonathan van Hazel
,
Guilherme Vieira da Silva
,
Moritz Wandres
,
Colin Whittaker
,
David Williams
,
Gundula Winter
,
Jiangtao Xu
,
Aihong Zhong
, and
Stefan Zieger
Full access