Abstract

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) account for more than 50% of summertime precipitation over the central United States and have a significant impact on local weather and hydrologic cycle. It is hypothesized that the inadequate treatment of MCSs is responsible for the long-standing warm and dry bias over the central United States in coarse-resolution general circulation model (GCM) simulations. In particular, a better understanding of MCS initiation is still lacking. Here a single-column Lagrangian parcel model is first developed to simulate the basic features of a rising parcel. This simple model demonstrates the collective effects of boundary layer moistening and dynamical lifting in triggering convective initiation and reproduces successfully its early afternoon peak with surface equivalent potential temperature as a controlling factor. It also predicts that convection is harder to trigger in the future climate under global warming, consistent with the results from convection-permitting regional climate simulations. Then, a multicolumn model that includes an array of single-column models aligned in the east–west direction and incorporates idealized cold pool interaction mechanisms is developed. The multicolumn model captures readily the cold pool–induced upscale growth feature in MCS genesis from initially scattered convection that is organized into a mesoscale cluster in a few hours. It also highlights the crucial role of lifting effects due to cold pool collision and spreading, subsidence effect, and gust front propagation speed in controlling the final size of mesoscale clusters and cold pool regions. This simple model should be useful for understanding fundamental mechanisms of MCS initiation and providing guidance for improving MCS simulations in GCMs.

Abstract

This study investigates multiscale atmospheric overturning during the 2009 Indian summer monsoon (ISM) using a cloud-permitting numerical model. The isentropic analysis technique adopted here sorts vertical mass fluxes in terms of the equivalent potential temperature of air parcels, which is capable of delineating the atmospheric overturning between ascending air parcels with high entropy and subsiding air parcels with low entropy. The monsoonal overturning is further decomposed into contributions from three characteristic scales: the basinwide ascent over the Indian monsoon domain, the regional-scale overturning associated with synoptic and mesoscale systems, and the convective-scale overturning. Results show that the convective-scale component dominates the upward mass transport in the lower troposphere while the region-scale component plays an important role by deepening the monsoonal overturning. The spatial variability of the convective-scale overturning is analyzed, showing intense convection over the Western Ghats and the Bay of Bengal while the deepest overturning is localized over northern India and the Himalayan foothills. The equivalent potential temperature in convective updrafts is higher over land than over the ocean or coastal regions. There is also substantial variability in the atmospheric overturning associated with the intraseasonal variability. The upward mass and energy transport increase considerably during the active phases of the ISM. A clear northeastward propagation in the peak isentropic vertical mass and energy transport over different characteristic regions can be found during the ISM, which corresponds to the intraseasonal oscillations of the ISM. Altogether, this study further demonstrates the utility of the isentropic analysis technique to characterize the spatiotemporal variations of convective activities in complex atmospheric flows.

Abstract

The hydroclimate of the western United States is influenced by strong interannual variability of atmospheric circulation, much of which is associated with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Precipitation anomalies during ENSO often show opposite and spatially coherent dry and wet patterns in the Northwest and California or vice versa. The role of orography in establishing mesoscale ENSO anomalies in the western United States is examined based on observed precipitation and temperature data at 1/8° spatial resolution and a regional climate simulation at 40-km spatial resolution. Results show that during El Niño or La Niña winters, strong precipitation anomalies are found in northern California, along the southern California coast, and in the northwest mountains such as the Olympic Mountains, the Cascades, and the northern Rockies. These spatial features, which are strongly affected by topography, are surprisingly well reproduced by the regional climate simulation.

A spatial feature investigated further is the positive–negative–positive precipitation anomaly found during El Niño years in the Olympic Mountains, and on the west side and east side of the Cascades in both observations and regional simulation. Observed streamflows of river basins located in those areas are found to be consistent with the precipitation anomalies. The spatial distribution of the precipitation anomalies is investigated by relating flow direction and moisture to the orientation of mountains and orographic precipitation. On the west side of the north–south-oriented Cascade Range, the increase in atmospheric moisture is not enough to compensate for the loss of orographic precipitation associated with a change in flow direction toward the southwest during El Niño years. In California, both the increase in atmospheric moisture and shift in wind direction toward the southwest enhance precipitation along the Sierra, which is oriented northwest to southeast. The spatial signature of the interactions between large-scale circulation and topography may provide useful information for seasonal predictions or climate change detection.

Abstract

This study assesses the ability of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations in capturing the interdecadal precipitation enhancement over the Yangtze River valley (YRV) and investigates the contributions of Arctic temperature and mid- to high-latitude warming to the interdecadal variability of the East Asian summer monsoon rainfall. Six CMIP5 historical simulations including models from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis (CCCma), the Beijing Climate Center, the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, the Meteorological Research Institute, the Met Office Hadley Centre, and NCAR are used. The NCEP–NCAR reanalysis and observed precipitation are also used for comparison. Among the six CMIP5 simulations, only CCCma can approximately simulate the enhancement of interdecadal summer precipitation over the YRV in 1990–2005 relative to 1960–75; the various relationships between the summer precipitation and surface temperature (T_s ), 850-hPa winds, and 500-hPa height field (H500); and the relationships between T_s and H500 determined using regression, correlation, and singular value decomposition (SVD) analyses. It is found that CCCma can reasonably simulate the interdecadal surface warming over the boreal mid- to high latitudes in winter, spring, and summer. The summer Baikal blocking anomaly is postulated to be the bridge that links the winter and spring surface warming over the mid- to high latitude and Arctic with the enhancement of summer precipitation over the YRV. Models that missed some or all of these relationships found in CCCma and the reanalysis failed to simulate the interdecadal enhancement of precipitation over the YRV. This points to the importance of Arctic and mid- to high-latitude processes on the interdecadal variability of the East Asian summer monsoon and the challenge for global climate models to correctly simulate the linkages.

Abstract

This paper analyzes a suite of global climate models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) archives to understand the mechanisms behind a net increase in the South Asian summer monsoon precipitation in response to enhanced radiative forcing during the twenty-first century. An increase in radiative forcing fuels an increase in the atmospheric moisture content through warmer temperatures, which overwhelms the weakening of monsoon circulation and results in an increase of moisture convergence and therefore summer monsoon precipitation over South Asia. Moisture source analysis suggests that both regional (local recycling, the Arabian Sea, the Bay of Bengal) and remote (including the south Indian Ocean) sources contribute to the moisture supply for precipitation over South Asia during the summer season that is facilitated by the monsoon dynamics. For regional moisture sources, the effect of excessive atmospheric moisture is offset by weaker monsoon circulation and uncertainty in the response of the evapotranspiration over land, so anomalies in their contribution to the total moisture supply are either mixed or muted. In contrast, weakening of the monsoon dynamics has less influence on the moisture supply from remote sources that not only is a dominant moisture contributor in the historical period but is also the net driver of the positive summer monsoon precipitation response in the twenty-first century. The results also indicate that historic measures of the monsoon dynamics may not be well suited to predict the nonstationary moisture-driven South Asian summer monsoon precipitation response in the twenty-first century.

Abstract

Net precipitation [precipitation minus evapotranspiration (P − E)] changes between 1979 and 2011 from a high-resolution regional climate simulation and its reanalysis forcing are analyzed over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and compared to the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) product. The high-resolution simulation better resolves precipitation changes than its coarse-resolution forcing, which contributes dominantly to the improved P − E change in the regional simulation compared to the global reanalysis. Hence, the former may provide better insights about the drivers of P − E changes. The mechanism behind the P − E changes is explored by decomposing the column integrated moisture flux convergence into thermodynamic, dynamic, and transient eddy components. High-resolution climate simulation improves the spatial pattern of P − E changes over the best available global reanalysis. High-resolution climate simulation also facilitates new and substantial findings regarding the role of thermodynamics and transient eddies in P − E changes reflected in observed changes in major river basins fed by runoff from the TP. The analysis reveals the contrasting convergence/divergence changes between the northwestern and southeastern TP and feedback through latent heat release as an important mechanism leading to the mean P − E changes in the TP.

Abstract

Compound hazards are more destructive than the individual ones. Using observational and reanalysis datasets during 1960–2019, this study shows a remarkable concurrent relationship between extreme heatwaves (HWs) over southeastern coast of China (SECC) and tropical cyclone (TC) activities over western North Pacific (WNP). Overall, 70% of HWs co-occurred with TC activities (TC–HWs) in the past 60 years. Although the total frequency of TCs over WNP exhibited a decreasing trend, the occurrences of TC–HWs over SECC have been increasing, primarily due to the increasing HWs in the warming climate. In addition, TC–HWs are stronger and longer lasting than HWs that occur alone (AHWs). And in the long-term perspective, both AHWs and TC–HWs exhibit increasing trends, especially since the mid-1980s. The enhancement on HWs caused by TC activities is sustained until TCs make their landfalls and then collapse. Based on composite analysis, TC activities enhance HWs by modulating atmospheric circulations and triggering anomalous descending motion over southern China mainland which intensifies the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) and favors increased temperatures therein. Given the severe adverse impacts of TC–HWs on coastal populations, more research is needed to assess the future projections of TC–HWs, as HWs are expected to be more frequent and stronger as the climate warms, whereas TCs over WNP may occur less often.

Abstract

Energy balance models (EBMs) have been widely used in a range of climate problems, but the assumption of constant diffusivity in the parameterization of the moist static energy (MSE) flux can hardly be justified. We demonstrate in this study that the diffusive MSE flux can be derived from the basic energy balance equation with a few tolerable assumptions. The estimated diffusivity is both spatially and seasonally dependent, and its midlatitude average is then tested against several scaling theories for the midlatitude eddy diffusivity. The result supports the diffusivity theory of Held and Larichev modified for the moist atmosphere, affording a dynamics-based parameterization of MSE diffusivity. The implementation of the parameterization in an EBM leads to an interactive MSE diffusivity that accounts for the midlatitude eddy response to climate forcing perturbations. Under a uniform radiative forcing, the EBM with a diffusivity so parameterized produces a weakening of the midlatitude diffusivity and a modestly polar-amplified surface temperature response as an inevitable outcome under the dual constraints of the nonlinear Clausius–Clapeyron relation and the temperature gradient-dependent diffusivity, even in the absence of any poleward-amplifying radiative feedbacks. As the consequence of more isothermal temperature and reduced diffusivity, the variance of the midlatitude surface temperature also decreases with warming.

Abstract

Climate response is often assumed to be linear in climate sensitivity studies. However, by examining the surface temperature (TS) response to pairs of oceanic forcings of equal amplitude but opposite sign in a large set of local q-flux perturbation experiments with CAM5 coupled to a slab, we find strong asymmetry in TS responses to the heating and cooling forcings, indicating a strong nonlinearity intrinsic to the climate system examined. Regardless of where the symmetric forcing is placed, the cooling response to the negative forcing always exceeds the warming to the positive forcing, implying an intrinsic inclination toward cooling of our current climate. Thus, the ongoing global warming induced by increasing greenhouse gases may have already been alleviated by the asymmetric component of the response. The common asymmetry in TS response peaks in high latitudes, especially along sea ice edges, with notable seasonal dependence. Decomposition into different radiative feedbacks through a radiative kernel indicates that the asymmetry in the TS response is realized largely through lapse rate and albedo feedbacks. Further process interference experiments disabling the seasonal cycle and/or sea ice reveal that the asymmetry originates ultimately from the presence of the sea ice component and is further amplified by the seasonal cycle. The fact that a pair of opposite tropical q-flux forcings can excite very similar asymmetric response as a pair placed at 55°S strongly suggests the asymmetric response is a manifestation of an internal mode of the climate model system.

Abstract

This paper explores the use of the linear response function (LRF) to relate the mean sea surface temperature (SST) response to prescribed ocean heat convergence (q flux) forcings. Two methods for constructing the LRF based on the fluctuation–dissipation theorem (FDT) and Green’s function (GRF) are examined. A 900-yr preindustrial simulation by the Community Earth System Model coupled with a slab ocean model (CESM–SOM) is used to estimate the LRF using FDT. For GRF, 106 pairs of CESM–SOM simulations with warm and cold q-flux patches are performed. FDT is found to have some skill in estimating the SST response to a q-flux forcing when the local SST response is strong, but it fails in inverse estimation of the q-flux forcing for a given SST pattern. In contrast, GRF is shown to be reasonably accurate in estimating both SST response and q-flux forcing. Possible degradation in FDT may be attributed to insufficient data sampling, significant departure of the SST distribution from Gaussianity, and the nonnormality of the constructed operator. The GRF-based LRF is then used to (i) generate a global surface temperature sensitivity map that shows the q-flux forcing in higher latitudes to be 3–4 times more effective than low latitudes in producing global surface warming, and (ii) identify the most excitable SST mode (neutral vector) that shows marked resemblance to the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO). The latter discovery suggests that the IPO-like fluctuation exists in the absence of the coupling to the ocean dynamics. Coupling to the ocean dynamics in CESM, on the other hand, only enhances the spectral power of the IPO at interannual time scales.