Search Results
You are looking at 31 - 40 of 60 items for
- Author or Editor: Martin P. Hoerling x
- Refine by Access: All Content x
Abstract
North America experienced sustained and strong surface warming during 1997 and 1998. This period coincided with a dramatic swing of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), with El Niño in 1997 rapidly replaced by La Niña in 1998. An additional aspect of the sea surface temperatures (SSTs) was the warmth of the world oceans as a whole for the entire period, with unprecedented amplitudes within the recent instrumental record. Using a suite of dynamical and empirical model simulations, this study examines the causes for the North American warming, focusing on the role of the sea surface boundary conditions.
Two sets of atmospheric general circulation model experiments, one forced with the observed global SSTs and the other with the tropical east Pacific portion only, produce similar North American–wide warming during fall and winter of 1997. The GCM results match empirical estimates of the canonical temperature response related to a strong El Niño and confirm that east equatorial Pacific SST forcing was a major factor in the continental warming of 1997.
Perpetuation of that warming from spring through fall of 1998 is shown to be unrelated to equatorial east Pacific SSTs and thus cannot be attributed to the ENSO cycle directly. Yet, simulations using the observed global SSTs are shown to reproduce realistically the continuation of North American warming throughout 1998. The continental warmth occurs in tandem with a warming of the troposphere that, initially confined to tropical latitudes during El Niño’s peak in 1997, spreads poleward and covers the entire globe in 1998. This evolutionary aspect of the global circulation anomalies during 1997 and 1998 is found to be a response to global SSTs and not linked directly to ENSO’s evolution.
Results presented here demonstrate that a significant fraction of the North American warming in 1997 and 1998 is explainable as the forced response to sea surface boundary conditions. The hand-over in the impact of those SSTs, with a classic ENSO driven signal in 1997 but an outwardly independent signal in 1998 related to the disposition of global SSTs outside the ENSO region is emphasized. The high potential predictability of North American climate during this 2-yr period raises new questions on the role of global SSTs in climate variability and the ability to predict them skillfully.
Abstract
North America experienced sustained and strong surface warming during 1997 and 1998. This period coincided with a dramatic swing of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), with El Niño in 1997 rapidly replaced by La Niña in 1998. An additional aspect of the sea surface temperatures (SSTs) was the warmth of the world oceans as a whole for the entire period, with unprecedented amplitudes within the recent instrumental record. Using a suite of dynamical and empirical model simulations, this study examines the causes for the North American warming, focusing on the role of the sea surface boundary conditions.
Two sets of atmospheric general circulation model experiments, one forced with the observed global SSTs and the other with the tropical east Pacific portion only, produce similar North American–wide warming during fall and winter of 1997. The GCM results match empirical estimates of the canonical temperature response related to a strong El Niño and confirm that east equatorial Pacific SST forcing was a major factor in the continental warming of 1997.
Perpetuation of that warming from spring through fall of 1998 is shown to be unrelated to equatorial east Pacific SSTs and thus cannot be attributed to the ENSO cycle directly. Yet, simulations using the observed global SSTs are shown to reproduce realistically the continuation of North American warming throughout 1998. The continental warmth occurs in tandem with a warming of the troposphere that, initially confined to tropical latitudes during El Niño’s peak in 1997, spreads poleward and covers the entire globe in 1998. This evolutionary aspect of the global circulation anomalies during 1997 and 1998 is found to be a response to global SSTs and not linked directly to ENSO’s evolution.
Results presented here demonstrate that a significant fraction of the North American warming in 1997 and 1998 is explainable as the forced response to sea surface boundary conditions. The hand-over in the impact of those SSTs, with a classic ENSO driven signal in 1997 but an outwardly independent signal in 1998 related to the disposition of global SSTs outside the ENSO region is emphasized. The high potential predictability of North American climate during this 2-yr period raises new questions on the role of global SSTs in climate variability and the ability to predict them skillfully.
Abstract
Simulations of the global distribution of heating (the sum of latent, sensible, short and longwave radiation) are presented for January and July using the R15 NCAR Community Climate Model (CCM). The vertical and horizontal distributions of heating predicted by an earlier version of the CCM (CCM0B) are contrasted with those predicted by the current version of the CCM (CCMI) in which substantial revisions were made in the physical parameterizations of convective, radiative, and sensible heating. The results are compared with climatological studies of atmospheric heating and with recent diagnostic analyses of heating during the Global Weather Experiment (GWE).
The dominant heat sources in the CCM simulations of January and July are located over Indonesia-Southeast Asia in broad agreement with the primary feature of the observed Asian monsoon; however, several marked distinctions between the vertically averaged heating distributions for CCM0B and CCM1 occur. During January, centers of maximum heating are located farther south of the equator in CCM1 than in CCM0B. This southward shift in CCM1 is accompanied by strong heating along the South Pacific and South Atlantic convergence zones. These latter features are largely absent in CCM0B. Additionally, CCM1 heating over the monsoon regions of southern Africa and South America is nearly double that found in CCM0B. Similarly, during July, CCM1 heating in the monsoon regions of northern Africa, the western Pacific, and Central America is nearly double that observed in CCM0B.
With fixed boundary conditions (e.g., sea surface temperatures, soil moisture, sea ice extent, and snow cover) in the perpetual simulations, the interannual variability of heating is due entirely to internal model dynamics. The interannual variability of both January and July heating is larger in CCM1 than in CCM0B. Regions of maximum interannual variability in both CCM0B and CCM1 are found in the vicinity of the principal tropical heat source regions. This variability is associated primarily with in situ fluctuations in the intensity of regional heating centers, while geographical displacements appear to be of secondary importance.
Major differences are found between the vertical distributions of heating for CCM0B and CCM1. These stem largely from changes in physical parameterizations, in particular a change in the prescribed critical relative humidity for condensation by moist stable and unstable adiabatic adjustment from 80% in CCM0B to 100% in CCM1, and a replacement of dry convective adjustment-in CCM0B by vertical diffusion of heat and moisture in CCM1. In the tropics, maximum heating occurs in the lower troposphere in CCM0B, while strongest heating occurs in the mid- to upper troposphere in CCM1. In the storm tracks of extratropical latitudes, heating is confined below 800 mb in CCM0B, while heating of appreciable magnitude extends above 500 mb in CCM1. The vertical distribution of heating in CCM1 agrees favorably with diagnosed distributions for the GWE, while the CCM0B heating distribution does not.
Abstract
Simulations of the global distribution of heating (the sum of latent, sensible, short and longwave radiation) are presented for January and July using the R15 NCAR Community Climate Model (CCM). The vertical and horizontal distributions of heating predicted by an earlier version of the CCM (CCM0B) are contrasted with those predicted by the current version of the CCM (CCMI) in which substantial revisions were made in the physical parameterizations of convective, radiative, and sensible heating. The results are compared with climatological studies of atmospheric heating and with recent diagnostic analyses of heating during the Global Weather Experiment (GWE).
The dominant heat sources in the CCM simulations of January and July are located over Indonesia-Southeast Asia in broad agreement with the primary feature of the observed Asian monsoon; however, several marked distinctions between the vertically averaged heating distributions for CCM0B and CCM1 occur. During January, centers of maximum heating are located farther south of the equator in CCM1 than in CCM0B. This southward shift in CCM1 is accompanied by strong heating along the South Pacific and South Atlantic convergence zones. These latter features are largely absent in CCM0B. Additionally, CCM1 heating over the monsoon regions of southern Africa and South America is nearly double that found in CCM0B. Similarly, during July, CCM1 heating in the monsoon regions of northern Africa, the western Pacific, and Central America is nearly double that observed in CCM0B.
With fixed boundary conditions (e.g., sea surface temperatures, soil moisture, sea ice extent, and snow cover) in the perpetual simulations, the interannual variability of heating is due entirely to internal model dynamics. The interannual variability of both January and July heating is larger in CCM1 than in CCM0B. Regions of maximum interannual variability in both CCM0B and CCM1 are found in the vicinity of the principal tropical heat source regions. This variability is associated primarily with in situ fluctuations in the intensity of regional heating centers, while geographical displacements appear to be of secondary importance.
Major differences are found between the vertical distributions of heating for CCM0B and CCM1. These stem largely from changes in physical parameterizations, in particular a change in the prescribed critical relative humidity for condensation by moist stable and unstable adiabatic adjustment from 80% in CCM0B to 100% in CCM1, and a replacement of dry convective adjustment-in CCM0B by vertical diffusion of heat and moisture in CCM1. In the tropics, maximum heating occurs in the lower troposphere in CCM0B, while strongest heating occurs in the mid- to upper troposphere in CCM1. In the storm tracks of extratropical latitudes, heating is confined below 800 mb in CCM0B, while heating of appreciable magnitude extends above 500 mb in CCM1. The vertical distribution of heating in CCM1 agrees favorably with diagnosed distributions for the GWE, while the CCM0B heating distribution does not.
Editors note: For easy download the posted pdf of the Explaining Extreme Events of 2014 is a very low-resolution file. A high-resolution copy of the report is available by clicking here. Please be patient as it may take a few minutes for the high-resolution file to download.
Editors note: For easy download the posted pdf of the Explaining Extreme Events of 2014 is a very low-resolution file. A high-resolution copy of the report is available by clicking here. Please be patient as it may take a few minutes for the high-resolution file to download.
Abstract
Editors note: For easy download the posted pdf of the Explaining Extreme Events of 2019 is a very low-resolution file. A high-resolution copy of the report is available by clicking here. Please be patient as it may take a few minutes for the high-resolution file to download.
Abstract
Editors note: For easy download the posted pdf of the Explaining Extreme Events of 2019 is a very low-resolution file. A high-resolution copy of the report is available by clicking here. Please be patient as it may take a few minutes for the high-resolution file to download.
Abstract
Previous atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) experiments revealed that atmospheric responses to a tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) were asymmetric with respect to the sign of the SSTA. A positive SSTA produced a south–north dipole in geopotential heights, much like the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), while a negative SSTA yielded an eastward-propagating wave train, with the northern lobe of the NAO absent.
Here these height responses are decomposed into components that are symmetric or antisymmetric with respect to the sign of the SSTA. The symmetric, or notionally linear, component is a nearly south–north dipole projecting on the NAO, while the antisymmetric, or notionally nonlinear, component is a different dipole. Experiments with a diagnostic linear baroclinic model (LBM) suggest that both components are maintained primarily by transient-eddy forcing. Dynamical mechanisms for the formation of the two components are explored using the LBM and a nonlinear barotropic vorticity equation model (BVM). Transient-eddy feedback is sufficient to explain the linear response. The NAO-like linear response occurs when the initial heating induces transient-eddy forcing in the exit of the Atlantic jet. The structure of the background absolute vorticity in this region is such that this transient-eddy forcing induces a nearly north–south dipole in anomalous geopotential heights. When the nonlinear self-interaction of this transient-induced low-frequency perturbation is included in the BVM, the dipole axis tilts to the east or west, resulting in a response that is nonlinear about the sign of the forcing.
Abstract
Previous atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) experiments revealed that atmospheric responses to a tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) were asymmetric with respect to the sign of the SSTA. A positive SSTA produced a south–north dipole in geopotential heights, much like the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), while a negative SSTA yielded an eastward-propagating wave train, with the northern lobe of the NAO absent.
Here these height responses are decomposed into components that are symmetric or antisymmetric with respect to the sign of the SSTA. The symmetric, or notionally linear, component is a nearly south–north dipole projecting on the NAO, while the antisymmetric, or notionally nonlinear, component is a different dipole. Experiments with a diagnostic linear baroclinic model (LBM) suggest that both components are maintained primarily by transient-eddy forcing. Dynamical mechanisms for the formation of the two components are explored using the LBM and a nonlinear barotropic vorticity equation model (BVM). Transient-eddy feedback is sufficient to explain the linear response. The NAO-like linear response occurs when the initial heating induces transient-eddy forcing in the exit of the Atlantic jet. The structure of the background absolute vorticity in this region is such that this transient-eddy forcing induces a nearly north–south dipole in anomalous geopotential heights. When the nonlinear self-interaction of this transient-induced low-frequency perturbation is included in the BVM, the dipole axis tilts to the east or west, resulting in a response that is nonlinear about the sign of the forcing.
Abstract
For a fixed sea surface temperature (SST) forcing, the variability of the observed seasonal mean atmospheric states in the extratropical latitudes can be characterized in terms of probability distribution functions (PDFs). Predictability of the seasonal mean anomalies related to interannual variations in the SSTs, therefore, entails understanding the influence of SST forcing on various moments of the probability distribution that characterize the variability of the seasonal means. Such an understanding for changes in the first moment of the PDF for the seasonal means with SSTs is well documented. In this paper the analysis is extended to include also the impact of SST forcing on the second moment of the PDFs.
The analysis is primarily based on ensemble atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) simulations forced with observed SSTs for the period 1950–94. To establish the robustness of the results and to ensure that they are not unduly affected by biases in a particular AGCM, the analysis is based on simulations from four different AGCMs.
The analysis of AGCM simulations indicates that over the Pacific–North American region, the impact of interannual variations in SSTs on the spread of the seasonal mean atmospheric states (i.e., the second moment of the PDFs) may be small. This is in contrast to their well-defined impact on the first moment of the PDF for the seasonal mean atmospheric state that is manifested as an anomalous wave train over this region. For seasonal predictions, the results imply that the dominant contribution to seasonal predictability comes from the impact of SSTs on the first moment of the PDF, with the impact of SSTs on the second moment of the PDFs playing a secondary role.
Abstract
For a fixed sea surface temperature (SST) forcing, the variability of the observed seasonal mean atmospheric states in the extratropical latitudes can be characterized in terms of probability distribution functions (PDFs). Predictability of the seasonal mean anomalies related to interannual variations in the SSTs, therefore, entails understanding the influence of SST forcing on various moments of the probability distribution that characterize the variability of the seasonal means. Such an understanding for changes in the first moment of the PDF for the seasonal means with SSTs is well documented. In this paper the analysis is extended to include also the impact of SST forcing on the second moment of the PDFs.
The analysis is primarily based on ensemble atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) simulations forced with observed SSTs for the period 1950–94. To establish the robustness of the results and to ensure that they are not unduly affected by biases in a particular AGCM, the analysis is based on simulations from four different AGCMs.
The analysis of AGCM simulations indicates that over the Pacific–North American region, the impact of interannual variations in SSTs on the spread of the seasonal mean atmospheric states (i.e., the second moment of the PDFs) may be small. This is in contrast to their well-defined impact on the first moment of the PDF for the seasonal mean atmospheric state that is manifested as an anomalous wave train over this region. For seasonal predictions, the results imply that the dominant contribution to seasonal predictability comes from the impact of SSTs on the first moment of the PDF, with the impact of SSTs on the second moment of the PDFs playing a secondary role.
Abstract
To elucidate physical processes responsible for the response of U.S. surface temperatures to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the surface energy balance is diagnosed from observations, with emphasis on the role of clouds, water vapor, and land surface properties associated with snow cover and soil moisture. Results for the winter season (December–February) indicate that U.S. surface temperature conditions associated with ENSO are determined principally by anomalies in the surface radiative heating—the sum of absorbed solar radiation and downward longwave radiation. Each component of the surface radiative heating is linked with specific characteristics of the atmospheric hydrologic response to ENSO and also to feedbacks by the land surface response. During El Niño, surface warming over the northern United States is physically consistent with three primary processes: 1) increased downward solar radiation due to reduced cloud optical thickness, 2) reduced reflected solar radiation due to an albedo decline resulting from snow cover loss, and 3) increased downward longwave radiation linked to an increase in precipitable water. In contrast, surface cooling over the southern United States during El Niño is mainly the result of a reduction in incoming solar radiation resulting from increased cloud optical thickness. During La Niña, surface warming over the central United States results mainly from snow cover losses, whereas warming over the southern United States results mainly from a reduction in cloud optical thickness that yields increased incoming solar radiation and also from an increase in precipitable water that enhances the downward longwave radiation. For both phases of ENSO the surface radiation budget is closely linked to large-scale horizontal and vertical motions in the free atmosphere through two main processes: 1) the convergence of the atmospheric water vapor transport that largely determines cloud optical thickness and thereby affects incoming shortwave radiation and 2) the changes in tropospheric column temperature resulting from the characteristic atmospheric teleconnections that largely determine column precipitable water and thereby affect downward longwave radiation.
Abstract
To elucidate physical processes responsible for the response of U.S. surface temperatures to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the surface energy balance is diagnosed from observations, with emphasis on the role of clouds, water vapor, and land surface properties associated with snow cover and soil moisture. Results for the winter season (December–February) indicate that U.S. surface temperature conditions associated with ENSO are determined principally by anomalies in the surface radiative heating—the sum of absorbed solar radiation and downward longwave radiation. Each component of the surface radiative heating is linked with specific characteristics of the atmospheric hydrologic response to ENSO and also to feedbacks by the land surface response. During El Niño, surface warming over the northern United States is physically consistent with three primary processes: 1) increased downward solar radiation due to reduced cloud optical thickness, 2) reduced reflected solar radiation due to an albedo decline resulting from snow cover loss, and 3) increased downward longwave radiation linked to an increase in precipitable water. In contrast, surface cooling over the southern United States during El Niño is mainly the result of a reduction in incoming solar radiation resulting from increased cloud optical thickness. During La Niña, surface warming over the central United States results mainly from snow cover losses, whereas warming over the southern United States results mainly from a reduction in cloud optical thickness that yields increased incoming solar radiation and also from an increase in precipitable water that enhances the downward longwave radiation. For both phases of ENSO the surface radiation budget is closely linked to large-scale horizontal and vertical motions in the free atmosphere through two main processes: 1) the convergence of the atmospheric water vapor transport that largely determines cloud optical thickness and thereby affects incoming shortwave radiation and 2) the changes in tropospheric column temperature resulting from the characteristic atmospheric teleconnections that largely determine column precipitable water and thereby affect downward longwave radiation.
Abstract
The tropical belt is expected to expand in response to global warming, although most of the observed tropical widening since 1980, especially in the Northern Hemisphere, is believed to have mainly originated from natural variability. The view is of a small global warming signal relative to natural variability. Here we focus on the question whether and, if so when, the anthropogenic signal of tropical widening will become detectable. Analysis of two large ensemble climate simulations reveals that the forced signal of tropical width is strongly constrained by the forced signal of global mean temperature. Under a representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) emissions scenario, the aggregate of the two models indicates a regression of about 0.5° lat °C−1 during 1980–2080. The models also reveal that interannual variability in tropical width, a measure of noise used herein, is insensitive to global warming. Reanalysis data are therefore used to constrain the interannual variability, whose magnitude is estimated to be 1.1° latitude. Defining the time of emergence (ToE) for tropical width change as the first year (post-1980) when the forced signal exceeds the magnitude of interannual variability, the multimodel simulations of CMIP5 are used to estimate ToE and its confidence interval. The aforementioned strong constraint between the signal of tropical width change and global mean temperature change motivates using CMIP5-simulated global mean temperature changes to infer ToE. Our best estimate for the probable year for ToE, under an RCP8.5 emissions scenario, is 2058 with 10th–90th percentile confidence of 2047–68. Various sources of uncertainty in estimating the ToE are discussed.
Abstract
The tropical belt is expected to expand in response to global warming, although most of the observed tropical widening since 1980, especially in the Northern Hemisphere, is believed to have mainly originated from natural variability. The view is of a small global warming signal relative to natural variability. Here we focus on the question whether and, if so when, the anthropogenic signal of tropical widening will become detectable. Analysis of two large ensemble climate simulations reveals that the forced signal of tropical width is strongly constrained by the forced signal of global mean temperature. Under a representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) emissions scenario, the aggregate of the two models indicates a regression of about 0.5° lat °C−1 during 1980–2080. The models also reveal that interannual variability in tropical width, a measure of noise used herein, is insensitive to global warming. Reanalysis data are therefore used to constrain the interannual variability, whose magnitude is estimated to be 1.1° latitude. Defining the time of emergence (ToE) for tropical width change as the first year (post-1980) when the forced signal exceeds the magnitude of interannual variability, the multimodel simulations of CMIP5 are used to estimate ToE and its confidence interval. The aforementioned strong constraint between the signal of tropical width change and global mean temperature change motivates using CMIP5-simulated global mean temperature changes to infer ToE. Our best estimate for the probable year for ToE, under an RCP8.5 emissions scenario, is 2058 with 10th–90th percentile confidence of 2047–68. Various sources of uncertainty in estimating the ToE are discussed.
