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Chun-Chieh Wu
,
Yi-Hsuan Huang
, and
Guo-Yuan Lien

Abstract

Typhoon Sinlaku (2008) is a case in point under The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (T-PARC) with the most abundant flight observations taken and with great potential to address major scientific issues in T-PARC such as structure change, targeted observations, and extratropical transition. A new method for vortex initialization based on ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) data assimilation and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is adopted in this study. By continuously assimilating storm positions (with an update cycle every 30 min), the mean surface wind structure, and all available measurement data, this study constructs a unique high-spatial/temporal-resolution and model/observation-consistent dataset for Sinlaku during a 4-day period. Simulations of Sinlaku starting at different initial times are further investigated to assess the impact of the data. It is striking that some of the simulations are able to capture Sinlaku’s secondary eyewall formation, while others starting the simulation earlier with less data assimilated are not. This dataset provides a unique opportunity to study the dynamical processes of concentric eyewall formation in Sinlaku. In Part I of this work, results from the data assimilation and simulations are presented, including concentric eyewall evolution and the precursors to its formation, while detailed dynamical analyses are conducted in follow-up research.

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Fang-Yi Cheng
,
Yu-Ching Hsu
,
Pay-Liam Lin
, and
Tang-Huang Lin

Abstract

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) land use (LU) data employed in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model classify most LU types in Taiwan as mixtures of irrigated cropland and forest, which is not an accurate representation of current conditions. The WRF model released after version 3.1 provides an alternative LU dataset retrieved from 2001 Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite products. The MODIS data correctly identify most LU-type distributions, except that they represent western Taiwan as being extremely urbanized. A new LU dataset, obtained using 2007 Système Probatoire d’Observation de la Terre (SPOT) satellite imagery [from the National Central University of Taiwan (NCU)], accurately shows the major metropolitan cities as well as other land types. Three WRF simulations were performed, each with a different LU dataset. Owing to the overestimation of urban area in the MODIS data, WRF-MODIS overpredicts daytime temperatures in western Taiwan. Conversely, WRF-USGS underpredicts daytime temperatures. The temperature variation estimated by WRF-NCU falls between those estimated by the other two simulations. Over the ocean, WRF-MODIS predicts the strongest onshore sea breezes, owing to the enhanced temperature gradient between land and sea, while WRF-USGS predicts the weakest onshore flow. The intensity of the onshore breeze predicted by WRF-NCU is between those predicted by WRF-MODIS and WRF-USGS. Over Taiwan, roughness length is the key parameter influencing wind speed. WRF-USGS significantly overpredicts the surface wind speed owing to the shorter roughness length of its elements, while the surface wind speeds estimated by WRF-NCU and WRF-MODIS are in better agreement with the observed data.

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Michael T. Montgomery
,
Sergio F. Abarca
,
Roger K. Smith
,
Chun-Chieh Wu
, and
Yi-Hsuan Huang
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Yi Huang
,
Steven Siems
,
Michael Manton
,
Alain Protat
,
Leon Majewski
, and
Hanh Nguyen

Abstract

Cloud-top height (CTH) and cloud-top temperature (CTT) retrieved from the Himawari-8 observations are evaluated using the active shipborne radar–lidar observations derived from the 31-day Clouds, Aerosols, Precipitation Radiation and Atmospheric Composition over the Southern Ocean (CAPRICORN) experiment in 2016 and 1-yr observations from the spaceborne Cloud–Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) cloud product over a large sector of the Southern Ocean. The results show that the Himawari-8 CTH (CTT) retrievals agree reasonably well with both the shipborne estimates, with a correlation coefficient of 0.837 (0.820), a mean bias error of 0.226 km (−2.526°C), and an RMSE of 1.684 km (10.069°C). In the comparison with CALIOP, the corresponding quantities are found to be 0.786 (0.480), −0.570 km (1.343°C), and 2.297 km (25.176°C). The Himawari-8 CTH (CTT) generally falls between the physical CTHs observed by CALIOP and the shipborne radar–lidar estimates. However, major systematic biases are also identified. These errors include (i) a low (warm) bias in CTH (CTT) for warm liquid cloud type, (ii) a cold bias in CTT for supercooled liquid water cloud type, (iii) a lack of CTH at ~3 km that does not have a corresponding gap in CTT, (iv) a tendency of misclassifying some low-/mid-top clouds as cirrus and overlap cloud types, and (v) a saturation of CTH (CTT) around 10 km (−40°C), particularly for cirrus and overlap cloud types. Various challenges that underpin these biases are also explored, including the potential of parallax bias, low-level inversion, and cloud heterogeneity.

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Chia Chou
,
Li-Fan Huang
,
Lishan Tseng
,
Jien-Yi Tu
, and
Pei-Hua Tan

Abstract

The annual cycle of precipitation over the western North Pacific and East Asian (WNP–EA) sector has five major periods: spring, the first and second wet periods, fall, and winter. In this study, processes that induce precipitation in each period are examined from a large-scale point of view. The wet phase over this sector has two distinct periods, which are dominated by the Asian summer monsoon circulation induced by the land–ocean contrast of net energy into the atmospheric column (F net). In the first wet period, the pre-mei-yu/mei-yu rainband is directly associated with a moisture flux convergence caused by the southwesterly Asian summer monsoon flow and the southeasterly trade winds, and indirectly associated with a dynamic feedback induced by this horizontal moisture convergence. The tropical convection, in the meantime, is associated with a rising motion that is induced by positive F net. In the second wet period, the WNP summer monsoon gyre dominates the rainfall of this region, which is partially associated with warmer local sea surface temperature (SST) via positive F net. The land–sea contrast of F net and the atmosphere–ocean interaction also play an important role in establishing the monsoon gyre. The dry phase over the WNP–EA region is the winter period in which precipitation is associated with winter storm activities and large-scale lifting associated with a pressure surge. In the two transition phases, due to a difference in heat capacity, the atmosphere and ocean have distinct impacts on precipitation, albeit similar solar insolations during the two periods. In the spring period, the atmospheric condition is favorable for convection, while the ocean surface is relatively colder, so the horizontal moisture advection associated with the westward extent of the Pacific subtropical high, which is different from a typical winter frontal system, is a major source for the spring rain. In the fall period, however, the atmospheric conditions dominated by the Asian winter monsoon circulation suppress convection, while relatively warmer SST still maintains tropical convection over the southern part of the WNP–EA region. Over the northern part of the WNP–EA region, the fall precipitation is associated with frontal systems, similar to those in winter.

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Chia Chou
,
Li-Fan Huang
,
Jien-Yi Tu
,
Lishan Tseng
, and
Yu-Chieh Hsueh

Abstract

In this study, the western North Pacific–East Asian (WNP–EA) rainfall anomaly induced by the strong El Niño in 1982–83, 1991–92, and 1997–98, and its association with the mean state, are examined. Over the northern part of the WNP–EA region (north of 20°N), which is dominated by southwest–northeast tilting frontal systems, positive rainfall anomalies from the fall before the El Niño peak phase (year 0) to the first wet period after the peak phase (year 1) are affected by low- and midlevel horizontal moisture convergence anomalies induced by low-level anticyclonic circulation anomalies over the WNP region that are associated with El Niño. Over the southern part of the WNP–EA region (south of 20°N), which is dominated by tropical convection, positive precipitation anomalies in the first and second wet periods of year 0 and negative precipitation anomalies from the fall of year 0 to the second wet period of year 1 are associated with the variation of the net energy into the atmosphere, which is mainly contributed to by local evaporation anomalies. The mechanisms for inducing the precipitation anomalies over both northern and southern parts of the WNP–EA region are similar to the mechanisms of the mean precipitation in each rainy period, but the detailed processes for the southern WNP–EA precipitation anomalies are more complicated, particularly in summer. In the first wet periods of years 0 and 1 and the fall of year 0, the precipitation anomalies are induced by evaporation anomalies that are contributed to by similar effects of sea surface temperature (SST) and wind speed anomalies. In the second wet period of years 0 and 1, on the other hand, near-surface wind speed anomalies affect precipitation via the process of evaporation. These wind speed anomalies are associated with the concurrence of the low-level circulation anomalies over the WNP region and the Asian summer monsoon trough. The SST anomalies are merely a response to evaporation and downward solar radiation anomalies. The dependence of the rainfall anomalies on the mean state, that is, similar causes for the rainfall mean and anomalies in each rainy period, implies that the mean state plays a key role in simulating the interannual variation over the WNP–EA region.

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Wan-Ru Huang
,
Ya-Hui Chang
,
Liping Deng
, and
Pin-Yi Liu

Abstract

Convective afternoon rainfall (CAR) events, which tend to generate a local rainfall typically in the afternoon, are among the most frequently observed local weather patterns over Southeast Asia during summer. Using satellite precipitation estimations as an observational base for model evaluation, this study examines the applicability of 10 global climate models provided by phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) in simulating the CAR activities over Southeast Asia. Analyses also focus on exploring the characteristics and maintenance mechanisms of related projections of CAR activities in the future. Our analyses of the historical simulation indicate that EC-Earth3 and EC-Earth3-Veg are the two best models for simulating CAR activities (including amount, frequency, and intensity) over Southeast Asia. Analyses also demonstrate that EC-Earth3 and EC-Earth3-Veg outperform their earlier version (i.e., EC-Earth) in CMIP5 owing to the improvement in its spatial resolution in CMIP6. For future projections, our examinations of the differences in CAR activities between the future (2071–2100, under the SSP858 run) and the present (1985–2014, under the historical run) indicate that CAR events will become fewer but more intense over most land areas of Southeast Asia. Possible causes of the projected increase (decrease) in CAR intensity (frequency) are attributed to the projected increase (decrease) in the local atmospheric humidity (sea breeze convergence and daytime thermal instability). These findings provide insight into how the local weather/climate over Southeast Asia is likely to change under global warming.

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Lin Zhang
,
Minghu Ding
,
Tingfeng Dou
,
Yi Huang
,
Junmei Lv
, and
Cunde Xiao

Abstract

Temperature inversions play an important role in various physical processes by affecting the atmospheric stability, regulating the development of clouds and fog, and controlling the transport of heat and moisture fluxes. In the past few decades, previous studies have analyzed the spatiotemporal variability of Arctic inversions, but few studies have investigated changes in temperature inversions. In this study, the changes in the depth of Arctic inversions in the mid-twenty-first century are projected based on a 30-member ensemble from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) project. The ERA-Interim, JRA-55, and NCEP–NCAR reanalysis were employed to verify the model results. The CESM-LE can adequately reproduce the spatial distribution and trends of present-day inversion depth in the Arctic, and the simulation is better in winter. The mean inversion depth in the CESM-LE is slightly underestimated, and the discrepancy is less than 11 hPa, within a reasonable range. The model results show that during the mid-twenty-first century, the inversion depth will strongly decrease in autumn and slightly decrease in winter. The shallowing of the inversion is most obvious over the Arctic Ocean, and the maximum decrease is over 65 hPa in the Pacific sector in autumn. In contrast, the largest decrease in the inversion depth, which is more than 45 hPa, occurs over the Barents Sea in winter. Moreover, the area where the inversion shallows is consistent with the area where the sea ice is retreating, indicating that the inversion depth over the Arctic Ocean in autumn and winter is likely regulated by the sea ice extent through modulating surface heat fluxes.

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Fukai Liu
,
Jian Lu
,
Yi Huang
,
L. Ruby Leung
,
Bryce E. Harrop
, and
Yiyong Luo

Abstract

Climate response is often assumed to be linear in climate sensitivity studies. However, by examining the surface temperature (TS) response to pairs of oceanic forcings of equal amplitude but opposite sign in a large set of local q-flux perturbation experiments with CAM5 coupled to a slab, we find strong asymmetry in TS responses to the heating and cooling forcings, indicating a strong nonlinearity intrinsic to the climate system examined. Regardless of where the symmetric forcing is placed, the cooling response to the negative forcing always exceeds the warming to the positive forcing, implying an intrinsic inclination toward cooling of our current climate. Thus, the ongoing global warming induced by increasing greenhouse gases may have already been alleviated by the asymmetric component of the response. The common asymmetry in TS response peaks in high latitudes, especially along sea ice edges, with notable seasonal dependence. Decomposition into different radiative feedbacks through a radiative kernel indicates that the asymmetry in the TS response is realized largely through lapse rate and albedo feedbacks. Further process interference experiments disabling the seasonal cycle and/or sea ice reveal that the asymmetry originates ultimately from the presence of the sea ice component and is further amplified by the seasonal cycle. The fact that a pair of opposite tropical q-flux forcings can excite very similar asymmetric response as a pair placed at 55°S strongly suggests the asymmetric response is a manifestation of an internal mode of the climate model system.

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Yi Huang
,
Steven T. Siems
,
Michael J. Manton
,
Luke B. Hande
, and
John M. Haynes

Abstract

A climatology of the structure of the low-altitude cloud field (tops below 4 km) over the Southern Ocean (40°–65°S) in the vicinity of Australia (100°–160°E) has been constructed with CloudSat products for liquid water and ice water clouds. Averaging over longitude and time, CloudSat produces a roughly uniform cloud field between heights of approximately 750 and 2250 m across the extent of the domain for both winter and summer. This cloud field makes a transition from consisting primarily of liquid water at the lower latitudes to ice water at the higher latitudes. This transition is primarily driven by the gradient in the temperature, which is commonly between 0° and −20°C, rather than by direct physical observation.

The uniform lower boundary is a consequence of the CloudSat cloud detection algorithm being unable to reliably separate radar returns because of the bright surface versus returns due to clouds, in the lowest four range bins above the surface. This is potentially very problematic over the Southern Ocean where the depth of the boundary layer has been observed to be as shallow as 500 m. Cloud fields inferred from upper-air soundings at Macquarie Island (54.62°S, 158.85°E) similarly suggest that the peak frequency lies between 260 and 500 m for both summer and winter. No immediate explanation is available for the uniformity of the cloud-top boundary. This lack of a strong seasonal cycle is, perhaps, remarkable given the large seasonal cycles in both the shortwave (SW) radiative forcing experienced and the cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentration over the Southern Ocean.

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