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Xun Jiang
,
Jingqian Wang
,
Edward T. Olsen
,
Maochang Liang
,
Thomas S. Pagano
,
Luke L. Chen
,
Stephen J. Licata
, and
Yuk L. Yung

Abstract

The authors investigate the influence of El Niño on midtropospheric CO2 from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and the Model for Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers, version 2 (MOZART-2). AIRS midtropospheric CO2 data are used to study the temporal and spatial variability of CO2 in response to El Niño. CO2 differences between the central and western Pacific Ocean correlate well with the Southern Oscillation index. To reveal the temporal and spatial variability of the El Niño signal in the AIRS midtropospheric CO2, a multiple regression method is applied to the CO2 data from September 2002 to February 2011. There is more (less) midtropospheric CO2 in the central Pacific and less (more) midtropospheric CO2 in the western Pacific during El Niño (La Niña) events. Similar results are seen in the MOZART-2 convolved midtropospheric CO2, although the El Niño signal in the MOZART-2 is weaker than that in the AIRS data.

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Chi-Cherng Hong
,
Chih-Hua Tsou
,
Pang-Chi Hsu
,
Kuan-Chieh Chen
,
Hsin-Chien Liang
,
Huang-Hsiung Hsu
,
Chia-Ying Tu
, and
Akio Kitoh

Abstract

The future changes in tropical cyclone (TC) intensity and frequency over the western North Pacific (WNP) under global warming remain uncertain. In this study, we investigated such changes using 20-km resolution HiRAM and Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) models, which can realistically simulate the TC activity in the present climate. We found that the mean intensity of TCs in the future (2075–99) would increase by approximately 15%, along with an eastward shift of TC genesis location in response to the El Niño–like warming. However, the lifetime of future TCs would be shortened because the TCs tend to have more poleward genesis locations and move faster due to a stronger steering flow related to the strengthened WNP subtropical high in a warmer climate. In other words, the enhancement of TC intensity in the future is not attributable to the duration of TC lifetime. To understand the processes responsible for the change in TC intensity in a warmer climate, we applied the budget equation of synoptic-scale eddy kinetic energy along the TC tracks in model simulations. The diagnostic results suggested that both the upper-level baroclinic energy conversion (CE) and lower-level barotropic energy conversion (CK) contribute to the intensified TCs under global warming. The increased CE results from the enhancement of TC-related perturbations of temperature and vertical velocity over the subtropical WNP, whereas the increased CK mainly comes from synoptic-scale eddies interacting with enhanced zonal-wind convergence associated with seasonal-mean and intraseasonal flows over Southeast China and the northwestern sector of WNP.

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Fei Chen
,
Robert Bornstein
,
Sue Grimmond
,
Ju Li
,
Xudong Liang
,
Alberto Martilli
,
Shiguang Miao
,
James Voogt
, and
Yingchun Wang
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Jinliang Liu
,
Jun-Hong Liang
,
James C. McWilliams
,
Peter P. Sullivan
,
Yalin Fan
, and
Qin Chen

Abstract

A large-eddy simulation (LES) model is configured to investigate the effect of the horizontal (northward) component of Earth’s rotation on upper-ocean turbulence. The focus is on the variability of the effect with latitude/hemisphere in the presence of surface gravity waves and when capped by a stable stratification beneath the surface layer. When is included, the mean flow, turbulence, and vertical mixing depend on the wind direction. The value and effect of are the largest in the tropics and decrease with increasing latitudes. The variability in turbulent flows to wind direction is different at different latitudes and in opposite hemispheres. When limited by stable stratification, the variability in turbulence intensity to wind direction reduces, but the entrainment rate changes with wind direction. In wave-driven Langmuir turbulence, the variability in mean current to wind direction is reduced, but the variability of turbulence to wind direction is evident. When there is wind-following swell, the variability in the mean current to wind direction is further reduced. When there is strong wind-opposing swell so that the total wave forcing is opposite to the wind, the variability in the mean current to wind direction is reduced, but the variability of turbulence to wind direction is enhanced, compared to in Ekman turbulence. The profiles of eddy viscosity, including its shape and its value, show a strong wind direction dependence for both stratified wind-driven and wave-driven Langmuir turbulence. Our study demonstrates that wind direction is an important parameter to upper-ocean mixing, though it is overlooked in existing ocean models.

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Liang Wu
,
Chia Chou
,
Cheng-Ta Chen
,
Ronghui Huang
,
Thomas R. Knutson
,
Joseph J. Sirutis
,
Stephen T. Garner
,
Christopher Kerr
,
Chia-Jung Lee
, and
Ya-Chien Feng

Abstract

A high-resolution regional atmospheric model is used to simulate present-day western North Pacific (WNP) tropical cyclone (TC) activity and to investigate the projected changes for the late twenty-first century. Compared to observations, the model can realistically simulate many basic features of the WNP TC activity climatology, such as the TC genesis location, track, and lifetime. A number of spatial and temporal features of observed TC interannual variability are captured, although observed variations in basinwide TC number are not. A relatively well-simulated feature is the contrast of years when the Asian summer monsoon trough extends eastward (retreats westward), more (fewer) TCs form within the southeastern quadrant of the WNP, and the corresponding TC activity is above (below) normal over most parts of the WNP east of 125°E. Future projections with the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) A1B scenario show a weak tendency for decreases in the number of WNP TCs, and for increases in the more intense TCs; these simulated changes are significant at the 80% level. The present-day simulation of intensity is limited to storms of intensity less than about 55 m s−1. There is also a weak (80% significance level) tendency for projected WNP TC activity to shift poleward under global warming. A regional-scale feature is a projected increase of the TC activity north of Taiwan, which would imply an increase in TCs making landfall in north China, the Korean Peninsula, and parts of Japan. However, given the weak statistical significance found for the simulated changes, an assessment of the robustness of such regional-scale projections will require further study.

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Lili Zeng
,
Gengxin Chen
,
Ke Huang
,
Ju Chen
,
Yunkai He
,
Fenghua Zhou
,
Yikai Yang
,
Zhanlin Liang
,
Qihua Peng
,
Rui Shi
,
Tilak Priyadarshana Gamage
,
Rongyu Chen
,
Jian Li
,
Zhenqiu Zhang
,
Zewen Wu
,
Linghui Yu
, and
Dongxiao Wang

Abstract

As an important part of the Indo-Pacific warm pool, the Indian Ocean has great significance for research on the Asian monsoon system and global climate change. From the 1960s onward, several international and regional programs have led to important new insights into the Indian Ocean. The eastern Tropical Indian Ocean Observation Network (TIOON) was established in 2010. The TIOON consists of two parts: large-scope observations and moored measurements. Large-scope observations are performed by the eastern Tropical Indian Ocean Comprehensive Experiment Cruise (TIO-CEC). Moored measurements are executed by the TIOON mooring array and the hydrological meteorological buoy. By 2019, 10 successful TIO-CEC voyages had been accomplished, making this mission the most comprehensive scientific investigation in China. The TIO-CEC voyages have collected temperature/salinity profiles, GPS radiosonde profiles, and other observations in the Indian Ocean. To supplement the existing buoy array in the Indian Ocean, an enhanced TIOON mooring array consisting of eight subthermocline acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) moorings, was established since 2013. The TIOON mooring equipped with both upward-looking and downward-looking WHLS75K ADCP provide valuable current monitoring information to depth of 1,000 m in the Indian Ocean. To improve air–sea interaction monitoring, two real-time hydrological–meteorological buoys were deployed in 2019 and 2020 in the equatorial Indian Ocean. A better understanding of the Indian Ocean requires continuous and long-term observations. The TIOON program and other aspiring field investigation programs will be promoted in the future.

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Paul A. Dirmeyer
,
Liang Chen
,
Jiexia Wu
,
Chul-Su Shin
,
Bohua Huang
,
Benjamin A. Cash
,
Michael G. Bosilovich
,
Sarith Mahanama
,
Randal D. Koster
,
Joseph A. Santanello
,
Michael B. Ek
,
Gianpaolo Balsamo
,
Emanuel Dutra
, and
David M. Lawrence

Abstract

This study compares four model systems in three configurations (LSM, LSM + GCM, and reanalysis) with global flux tower observations to validate states, surface fluxes, and coupling indices between land and atmosphere. Models clearly underrepresent the feedback of surface fluxes on boundary layer properties (the atmospheric leg of land–atmosphere coupling) and may overrepresent the connection between soil moisture and surface fluxes (the terrestrial leg). Models generally underrepresent spatial and temporal variability relative to observations, which is at least partially an artifact of the differences in spatial scale between model grid boxes and flux tower footprints. All models bias high in near-surface humidity and downward shortwave radiation, struggle to represent precipitation accurately, and show serious problems in reproducing surface albedos. These errors create challenges for models to partition surface energy properly, and errors are traceable through the surface energy and water cycles. The spatial distribution of the amplitude and phase of annual cycles (first harmonic) are generally well reproduced, but the biases in means tend to reflect in these amplitudes. Interannual variability is also a challenge for models to reproduce. Although the models validate better against Bowen-ratio-corrected surface flux observations, which allow for closure of surface energy balances at flux tower sites, it is not clear whether the corrected fluxes are more representative of actual fluxes. The analysis illuminates targets for coupled land–atmosphere model development, as well as the value of long-term globally distributed observational monitoring.

Open access
Cenlin He
,
Fei Chen
,
Michael Barlage
,
Zong-Liang Yang
,
Jerry W. Wegiel
,
Guo-Yue Niu
,
David Gochis
,
David M. Mocko
,
Ronnie Abolafia-Rosenzweig
,
Zhe Zhang
,
Tzu-Shun Lin
,
Prasanth Valayamkunnath
,
Michael Ek
, and
Dev Niyogi
Open access
Xin-Zhong Liang
,
Min Xu
,
Xing Yuan
,
Tiejun Ling
,
Hyun I. Choi
,
Feng Zhang
,
Ligang Chen
,
Shuyan Liu
,
Shenjian Su
,
Fengxue Qiao
,
Yuxiang He
,
Julian X. L. Wang
,
Kenneth E. Kunkel
,
Wei Gao
,
Everette Joseph
,
Vernon Morris
,
Tsann-Wang Yu
,
Jimy Dudhia
, and
John Michalakes

The CWRF is developed as a climate extension of the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) by incorporating numerous improvements in the representation of physical processes and integration of external (top, surface, lateral) forcings that are crucial to climate scales, including interactions between land, atmosphere, and ocean; convection and microphysics; and cloud, aerosol, and radiation; and system consistency throughout all process modules. This extension inherits all WRF functionalities for numerical weather prediction while enhancing the capability for climate modeling. As such, CWRF can be applied seamlessly to weather forecast and climate prediction. The CWRF is built with a comprehensive ensemble of alternative parameterization schemes for each of the key physical processes, including surface (land, ocean), planetary boundary layer, cumulus (deep, shallow), microphysics, cloud, aerosol, and radiation, and their interactions. This facilitates the use of an optimized physics ensemble approach to improve weather or climate prediction along with a reliable uncertainty estimate. The CWRF also emphasizes the societal service capability to provide impactrelevant information by coupling with detailed models of terrestrial hydrology, coastal ocean, crop growth, air quality, and a recently expanded interactive water quality and ecosystem model.

This study provides a general CWRF description and basic skill evaluation based on a continuous integration for the period 1979– 2009 as compared with that of WRF, using a 30-km grid spacing over a domain that includes the contiguous United States plus southern Canada and northern Mexico. In addition to advantages of greater application capability, CWRF improves performance in radiation and terrestrial hydrology over WRF and other regional models. Precipitation simulation, however, remains a challenge for all of the tested models.

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J. W. Yan
,
J. Y. Liu
,
B. Z. Chen
,
M. Feng
,
S. F. Fang
,
G. Xu
,
H. F. Zhang
,
M. L. Che
,
W. Liang
,
Y. F. Hu
,
W. H. Kuang
, and
H. M. Wang

Abstract

Sensible heat flux (H), latent heat flux (LE), and net radiation (NR) are important surface energy components that directly influence climate systems. In this study, the changes in the surface energy and their contributions from global climate change and/or land-cover change over eastern China during the past nearly 30 years were investigated and assessed using a process-based land surface model [the Ecosystem–Atmosphere Simulation Scheme (EASS)]. The modeled results show that climate change contributed more to the changes of land surface energy fluxes than land-cover change, with their contribution ratio reaching 4:1 or even higher. Annual average temperature increased before 2000 and reversed thereafter; annual total precipitation continually decreased, and incident solar radiation continually increased over the past nearly 30 years. These climatic changes could lead to increased NR, H, and LE, assuming land cover remained unchanged during the past nearly 30 years. Among these meteorological variables, at spatial distribution, the incident solar radiation has the greatest effect on land surface energy exchange. The impacts of land-cover change on the seasonal variations in land surface heat fluxes between the four periods were large, especially for H. The changes in the regional energy fluxes resulting from different land-cover type conversions varied greatly. The conversion from farmland to evergreen coniferous forests had the greatest influence on land surface energy exchange, leading to a decrease in H by 19.39% and an increase in LE and NR by 7.44% and 2.74%, respectively. The results of this study can provide a basis and reference for climate change adaptation.

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