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Abstract
Stratospheric ozone is expected to recover by the end of this century because of the regulation of ozone-depleting substances by the Montreal Protocol. Targeted modeling studies have suggested that the climate response to ozone recovery will greatly oppose the climate response to rising greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, the extent of this cancellation remains unclear since only a few such studies are available. Here, a much larger set of simulations performed for phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project is analyzed, which includes ozone recovery. It is shown that the closing of the ozone hole will cause a delay in summertime [December–February (DJF)] Southern Hemisphere climate change between now and 2045. Specifically, it is found that the position of the jet stream, the width of the subtropical dry zones, the seasonality of surface temperatures, and sea ice concentrations all exhibit significantly reduced summertime trends over the first half of the twenty-first century as a consequence of ozone recovery. After 2045, forcing from GHG emissions begins to dominate the climate response. Finally, comparing the relative influences of future GHG emissions and historic ozone depletion, it is found that the simulated DJF tropospheric circulation changes between 1965 and 2005 (driven primarily by ozone depletion) are larger than the projected changes in any future scenario over the entire twenty-first century.
Abstract
Stratospheric ozone is expected to recover by the end of this century because of the regulation of ozone-depleting substances by the Montreal Protocol. Targeted modeling studies have suggested that the climate response to ozone recovery will greatly oppose the climate response to rising greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, the extent of this cancellation remains unclear since only a few such studies are available. Here, a much larger set of simulations performed for phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project is analyzed, which includes ozone recovery. It is shown that the closing of the ozone hole will cause a delay in summertime [December–February (DJF)] Southern Hemisphere climate change between now and 2045. Specifically, it is found that the position of the jet stream, the width of the subtropical dry zones, the seasonality of surface temperatures, and sea ice concentrations all exhibit significantly reduced summertime trends over the first half of the twenty-first century as a consequence of ozone recovery. After 2045, forcing from GHG emissions begins to dominate the climate response. Finally, comparing the relative influences of future GHG emissions and historic ozone depletion, it is found that the simulated DJF tropospheric circulation changes between 1965 and 2005 (driven primarily by ozone depletion) are larger than the projected changes in any future scenario over the entire twenty-first century.
Abstract
The term polar vortex has become part of the everyday vocabulary, but there is some confusion in the media, general public, and science community regarding what polar vortices are and how they are related to various weather events. Here, we clarify what is meant by polar vortices in the atmospheric science literature. It is important to recognize the existence of two separate planetary-scale circumpolar vortices: one in the stratosphere and the other in the troposphere. These vortices have different structures, seasonality, dynamics, and impacts on extreme weather. The tropospheric vortex is much larger than its stratospheric counterpart and exists year-round, whereas the stratospheric polar vortex forms in fall but disappears in the spring of each year. Both vortices can, in some circumstances, play a role in extreme weather events at the surface, such as cold-air outbreaks, but these events are not the consequence of either the existence or gross properties of these two vortices. Rather, cold-air outbreaks are most directly related to transient, localized displacements of the edge of the tropospheric polar vortex that may, in some circumstances, be related to the stratospheric polar vortex, but there is no known one-to-one connection between these phenomena.
Abstract
The term polar vortex has become part of the everyday vocabulary, but there is some confusion in the media, general public, and science community regarding what polar vortices are and how they are related to various weather events. Here, we clarify what is meant by polar vortices in the atmospheric science literature. It is important to recognize the existence of two separate planetary-scale circumpolar vortices: one in the stratosphere and the other in the troposphere. These vortices have different structures, seasonality, dynamics, and impacts on extreme weather. The tropospheric vortex is much larger than its stratospheric counterpart and exists year-round, whereas the stratospheric polar vortex forms in fall but disappears in the spring of each year. Both vortices can, in some circumstances, play a role in extreme weather events at the surface, such as cold-air outbreaks, but these events are not the consequence of either the existence or gross properties of these two vortices. Rather, cold-air outbreaks are most directly related to transient, localized displacements of the edge of the tropospheric polar vortex that may, in some circumstances, be related to the stratospheric polar vortex, but there is no known one-to-one connection between these phenomena.
Abstract
Using a simple stochastic model, the authors illustrate that the occurrence of a meridional dipole in the first empirical orthogonal function (EOF) of a time-dependent zonal jet is a simple consequence of the north–south excursion of the jet center, and this geometrical fact can be understood without appealing to fluid dynamical principles. From this it follows that one ought not, perhaps, be surprised at the fact that such dipoles, commonly referred to as the Arctic Oscillation (AO) or the Northern Annular Mode (NAM), have robustly been identified in many observational studies and appear to be ubiquitous in atmospheric models across a wide range of complexity.
Abstract
Using a simple stochastic model, the authors illustrate that the occurrence of a meridional dipole in the first empirical orthogonal function (EOF) of a time-dependent zonal jet is a simple consequence of the north–south excursion of the jet center, and this geometrical fact can be understood without appealing to fluid dynamical principles. From this it follows that one ought not, perhaps, be surprised at the fact that such dipoles, commonly referred to as the Arctic Oscillation (AO) or the Northern Annular Mode (NAM), have robustly been identified in many observational studies and appear to be ubiquitous in atmospheric models across a wide range of complexity.
Abstract
The authors present a new, observationally based estimate of the atmospheric energy budget for the Antarctic polar cap (the region poleward of 70°S). This energy budget is constructed using state-of-the-art reanalysis products from ECMWF [the ECMWF Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim)] and Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative fluxes for the period 2001–10. The climatological mean Antarctic energy budget is characterized by an approximate balance between the TOA net outgoing radiation and the horizontal convergence of atmospheric energy transport, with the net surface energy flux and atmospheric energy storage generally being small in comparison. Variability in the energy budget on intraseasonal-to-interannual time scales bears a strong signature of the southern annular mode (SAM), with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) having a smaller impact. The energy budget framework is shown to be a useful alternative to the SAM for interpreting surface climate variability in the Antarctic region.
Abstract
The authors present a new, observationally based estimate of the atmospheric energy budget for the Antarctic polar cap (the region poleward of 70°S). This energy budget is constructed using state-of-the-art reanalysis products from ECMWF [the ECMWF Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim)] and Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative fluxes for the period 2001–10. The climatological mean Antarctic energy budget is characterized by an approximate balance between the TOA net outgoing radiation and the horizontal convergence of atmospheric energy transport, with the net surface energy flux and atmospheric energy storage generally being small in comparison. Variability in the energy budget on intraseasonal-to-interannual time scales bears a strong signature of the southern annular mode (SAM), with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) having a smaller impact. The energy budget framework is shown to be a useful alternative to the SAM for interpreting surface climate variability in the Antarctic region.
Abstract
A new method for integrating shallow water equations, the contour-advective semi-Lagrangian (CASL) algorithm, is presented. This is the first implementation of a contour method to a system of equations for which exact potential vorticity invertibility does not exist. The new CASL method fuses the recent contour-advection technique with the traditional pseudospectral (PS) method. The potential vorticity field, which typically develops steep gradients and evolves into thin filaments, is discretized by level sets separated by contours that are advected in a fully Lagrangian way. The height and divergence fields, which are intrinsically broader in scale, are treated in an Eulerian way: they are discretized on an fixed grid and time stepped with a PS scheme.
In fact, the CASL method is similar to the widely used semi-Lagrangian (SL) method in that material conservation of potential vorticity along particle trajectories is used to determine the potential vorticity at each time step from the previous one. The crucial difference is that, whereas in the CASL method the potential vorticity is merely advected, in the SL method the potential vorticity needs to be interpolated at each time step. This interpolation results in numerical diffusion in the SL method.
By directly comparing the CASL, SL, and PS methods, it is demonstrated that the implicit diffusion associated with potential vorticity interpolation in the SL method and the explicit diffusion required for numerical stability in the PS method seriously degrade the solution accuracy compared with the CASL method. Moreover, it is shown that the CASL method is much more efficient than the SL and PS methods since, for a given solution accuracy, a much coarser grid can be used and hence much faster computations can be performed.
Abstract
A new method for integrating shallow water equations, the contour-advective semi-Lagrangian (CASL) algorithm, is presented. This is the first implementation of a contour method to a system of equations for which exact potential vorticity invertibility does not exist. The new CASL method fuses the recent contour-advection technique with the traditional pseudospectral (PS) method. The potential vorticity field, which typically develops steep gradients and evolves into thin filaments, is discretized by level sets separated by contours that are advected in a fully Lagrangian way. The height and divergence fields, which are intrinsically broader in scale, are treated in an Eulerian way: they are discretized on an fixed grid and time stepped with a PS scheme.
In fact, the CASL method is similar to the widely used semi-Lagrangian (SL) method in that material conservation of potential vorticity along particle trajectories is used to determine the potential vorticity at each time step from the previous one. The crucial difference is that, whereas in the CASL method the potential vorticity is merely advected, in the SL method the potential vorticity needs to be interpolated at each time step. This interpolation results in numerical diffusion in the SL method.
By directly comparing the CASL, SL, and PS methods, it is demonstrated that the implicit diffusion associated with potential vorticity interpolation in the SL method and the explicit diffusion required for numerical stability in the PS method seriously degrade the solution accuracy compared with the CASL method. Moreover, it is shown that the CASL method is much more efficient than the SL and PS methods since, for a given solution accuracy, a much coarser grid can be used and hence much faster computations can be performed.
Abstract
Weather regimes defined through cluster analysis concisely categorize the anomalous regional circulation pattern on any given day. Owing to their persistence and low dimensionality, regimes are increasingly used in subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction and in analysis of climate variability and change. However, a limitation of existing regime classifications for North America is their seasonal dependence, with most existing studies defining regimes for winter only. Here, we normalize the seasonal cycle in daily geopotential height variance and use empirical orthogonal function analysis combined with k-means clustering to define a new set of year-round North American weather regimes: the Pacific Trough, Pacific Ridge, Alaskan Ridge, and Greenland High regimes. We additionally define a “No Regime” state to represent conditions close to climatology. To demonstrate the robustness of the classification, a thorough assessment of the sensitivity of the clustering solution to various methodological choices is provided. The median persistence of all four regimes, obtained without imposing a persistence criterion, is found to be one week, approximately 3 times longer than the median persistence of the No Regime state. Regime-associated temperature and precipitation anomalies are reported, together with the relationship between the regimes and modes of climate variability. We also quantify historical trends in the frequency of the regimes since 1979, finding a decrease in the annual frequency of the Pacific Trough regime and an increase in the summertime frequency of the Greenland High regime. This study serves as a foundation for the future use of these regimes in a variety of weather and climate applications.
Significance Statement
Weather regimes provide a simple way of classifying daily large-scale regional weather patterns into a few predefined types. Existing methods usually define regimes for a specific season (typically winter), which limits their use, or provides only a minimal assessment of their robustness. In this study, we objectively quantify four weather regimes for use year-round over North America, while we classify near-normal conditions as No Regime. The four regimes represent persistent large-scale weather types that last for about a week and occasionally much longer. Our new classification can be applied to subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasts and climate model output to diagnose recurrent weather types across the North American continent.
Abstract
Weather regimes defined through cluster analysis concisely categorize the anomalous regional circulation pattern on any given day. Owing to their persistence and low dimensionality, regimes are increasingly used in subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction and in analysis of climate variability and change. However, a limitation of existing regime classifications for North America is their seasonal dependence, with most existing studies defining regimes for winter only. Here, we normalize the seasonal cycle in daily geopotential height variance and use empirical orthogonal function analysis combined with k-means clustering to define a new set of year-round North American weather regimes: the Pacific Trough, Pacific Ridge, Alaskan Ridge, and Greenland High regimes. We additionally define a “No Regime” state to represent conditions close to climatology. To demonstrate the robustness of the classification, a thorough assessment of the sensitivity of the clustering solution to various methodological choices is provided. The median persistence of all four regimes, obtained without imposing a persistence criterion, is found to be one week, approximately 3 times longer than the median persistence of the No Regime state. Regime-associated temperature and precipitation anomalies are reported, together with the relationship between the regimes and modes of climate variability. We also quantify historical trends in the frequency of the regimes since 1979, finding a decrease in the annual frequency of the Pacific Trough regime and an increase in the summertime frequency of the Greenland High regime. This study serves as a foundation for the future use of these regimes in a variety of weather and climate applications.
Significance Statement
Weather regimes provide a simple way of classifying daily large-scale regional weather patterns into a few predefined types. Existing methods usually define regimes for a specific season (typically winter), which limits their use, or provides only a minimal assessment of their robustness. In this study, we objectively quantify four weather regimes for use year-round over North America, while we classify near-normal conditions as No Regime. The four regimes represent persistent large-scale weather types that last for about a week and occasionally much longer. Our new classification can be applied to subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasts and climate model output to diagnose recurrent weather types across the North American continent.
Abstract
The effect of topography on storm-track intensity is examined with a set of primitive equation model integrations. This effect is found to be crucially dependent on the latitudinal structure of the background flow impinging on the topography. If the background flow consists of a weak double jet, higher topography leads to an intensification of the storm track downstream of the topography, consistent with enhanced baroclinicity in that region. However, if the background flow consists of a strong single jet, topography weakens the storm track, despite the fact that the baroclinicity downstream of the topography is again enhanced.
The different topographic impact results from the different wave packets in the two background flows. For a weak double-jet state, wave packets tend to radiate equatorward and storm-track eddies grow primarily at the expense of local baroclinicity. In contrast, for a strong single-jet state, wave packets persistently propagate in the zonal direction and storm tracks are affected not only by local baroclinicity but also by far-upstream disturbances via downstream development. It is the reduction of the latter by the topography that leads to weaker storm tracks in a strong single-jet state. The implications of these findings for Northern Hemisphere storm tracks are also discussed.
Abstract
The effect of topography on storm-track intensity is examined with a set of primitive equation model integrations. This effect is found to be crucially dependent on the latitudinal structure of the background flow impinging on the topography. If the background flow consists of a weak double jet, higher topography leads to an intensification of the storm track downstream of the topography, consistent with enhanced baroclinicity in that region. However, if the background flow consists of a strong single jet, topography weakens the storm track, despite the fact that the baroclinicity downstream of the topography is again enhanced.
The different topographic impact results from the different wave packets in the two background flows. For a weak double-jet state, wave packets tend to radiate equatorward and storm-track eddies grow primarily at the expense of local baroclinicity. In contrast, for a strong single-jet state, wave packets persistently propagate in the zonal direction and storm tracks are affected not only by local baroclinicity but also by far-upstream disturbances via downstream development. It is the reduction of the latter by the topography that leads to weaker storm tracks in a strong single-jet state. The implications of these findings for Northern Hemisphere storm tracks are also discussed.
Abstract
In the Southern Hemisphere, Earth system models project an intensification of winter storm tracks by the end of the twenty-first century. Previous studies using idealized models showed that storm track intensity saturates with increasing temperatures, suggesting that the intensification of the winter storm tracks might not continue further with increasing greenhouse gases. Here, we examine the response of midlatitude winter storm tracks in the Southern Hemisphere to increasing CO2 from two to eight times preindustrial concentrations in more realistic Earth system models. We find that at high CO2 levels (beyond 4×CO2), winter storm tracks no longer exhibit an intensification across the extratropics. Instead, they shift poleward, weakening the storm tracks at lower midlatitudes and strengthening at higher midlatitudes. By analyzing the eddy kinetic energy (EKE) budget, the nonlinear storm-track response to an increase in CO2 levels in the lower midlatitudes is found to stem from a scale-dependent conversion of eddy available potential energy to EKE. Specifically, in the lower midlatitudes, this energy conversion acts to oppositely change the EKE of long and short scales at low CO2 levels, but at high CO2 levels, it mostly reduces the EKE of shorter scales, resulting in a poleward shift of the storms. Furthermore, we identify a “tug of war” between the upper and lower temperature changes as the primary driver of the nonlinear-scale-dependent EKE response in the lower midlatitudes. Our results suggest that in the highest emission scenarios beyond the twenty-first century, the storm tracks’ response may differ in magnitude and latitudinal distribution from projected changes by 2100.
Significance Statement
The Southern Hemisphere winter storm track is projected to intensify by the end of the century, with the most significant intensification occurring in the higher midlatitudes. However, we show that the intensification is not a linear function of the radiative forcing associated with increasing CO2 levels. In fact, our study shows a poleward shift at very high CO2 levels, with the storm track moving southward. This suggests that the Southern Hemisphere winter storm track may require time-sensitive adaptation strategies, as the impacts of global warming on the storm track may not be a linear function of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere.
Abstract
In the Southern Hemisphere, Earth system models project an intensification of winter storm tracks by the end of the twenty-first century. Previous studies using idealized models showed that storm track intensity saturates with increasing temperatures, suggesting that the intensification of the winter storm tracks might not continue further with increasing greenhouse gases. Here, we examine the response of midlatitude winter storm tracks in the Southern Hemisphere to increasing CO2 from two to eight times preindustrial concentrations in more realistic Earth system models. We find that at high CO2 levels (beyond 4×CO2), winter storm tracks no longer exhibit an intensification across the extratropics. Instead, they shift poleward, weakening the storm tracks at lower midlatitudes and strengthening at higher midlatitudes. By analyzing the eddy kinetic energy (EKE) budget, the nonlinear storm-track response to an increase in CO2 levels in the lower midlatitudes is found to stem from a scale-dependent conversion of eddy available potential energy to EKE. Specifically, in the lower midlatitudes, this energy conversion acts to oppositely change the EKE of long and short scales at low CO2 levels, but at high CO2 levels, it mostly reduces the EKE of shorter scales, resulting in a poleward shift of the storms. Furthermore, we identify a “tug of war” between the upper and lower temperature changes as the primary driver of the nonlinear-scale-dependent EKE response in the lower midlatitudes. Our results suggest that in the highest emission scenarios beyond the twenty-first century, the storm tracks’ response may differ in magnitude and latitudinal distribution from projected changes by 2100.
Significance Statement
The Southern Hemisphere winter storm track is projected to intensify by the end of the century, with the most significant intensification occurring in the higher midlatitudes. However, we show that the intensification is not a linear function of the radiative forcing associated with increasing CO2 levels. In fact, our study shows a poleward shift at very high CO2 levels, with the storm track moving southward. This suggests that the Southern Hemisphere winter storm track may require time-sensitive adaptation strategies, as the impacts of global warming on the storm track may not be a linear function of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere.
Abstract
We critically reexamine the question of whether volcanic eruptions cause surface warming over Eurasia in winter, in the light of recent modeling studies that have suggested internal variability may overwhelm any forced volcanic response, even for the very largest eruptions during the Common Era. Focusing on the Last Millennium, we combine model output, instrumental observations, tree-ring records, and ice cores to build a new temperature reconstruction that specifically targets the boreal winter season. We focus on 20 eruptions over the Last Millennium with volcanic stratospheric sulfur injections (VSSI) larger than the 1991 Pinatubo eruption.
We find that only 7 of these 20 large events are followed by warm surface temperature anomalies over Eurasia in the first post-eruption winter. Examining the 13 events that show cold post-eruption anomalies we find no correlation between the amplitude of winter cooling and VSSI mass. We also find no evidence that the North Atlantic Oscillation is correlated with VSSI in winter, a key element of the proposed mechanism through which large low-latitude eruptions might cause winter warming over Eurasia.
Furthermore, by inspecting individual eruptions rather than combining events into a superposed epoch analysis, we are able to reconcile our findings with those of previous studies. Analysis of two additional paleoclimatic datasets corroborates the lack of post-eruption Eurasian winter warming. Our findings, covering the entire Last Millennium, confirm the findings of most recent modeling studies, and offer important new evidence that large low-latitude eruptions are not, in general, followed by significant surface wintertime warming over Eurasia.
Abstract
We critically reexamine the question of whether volcanic eruptions cause surface warming over Eurasia in winter, in the light of recent modeling studies that have suggested internal variability may overwhelm any forced volcanic response, even for the very largest eruptions during the Common Era. Focusing on the Last Millennium, we combine model output, instrumental observations, tree-ring records, and ice cores to build a new temperature reconstruction that specifically targets the boreal winter season. We focus on 20 eruptions over the Last Millennium with volcanic stratospheric sulfur injections (VSSI) larger than the 1991 Pinatubo eruption.
We find that only 7 of these 20 large events are followed by warm surface temperature anomalies over Eurasia in the first post-eruption winter. Examining the 13 events that show cold post-eruption anomalies we find no correlation between the amplitude of winter cooling and VSSI mass. We also find no evidence that the North Atlantic Oscillation is correlated with VSSI in winter, a key element of the proposed mechanism through which large low-latitude eruptions might cause winter warming over Eurasia.
Furthermore, by inspecting individual eruptions rather than combining events into a superposed epoch analysis, we are able to reconcile our findings with those of previous studies. Analysis of two additional paleoclimatic datasets corroborates the lack of post-eruption Eurasian winter warming. Our findings, covering the entire Last Millennium, confirm the findings of most recent modeling studies, and offer important new evidence that large low-latitude eruptions are not, in general, followed by significant surface wintertime warming over Eurasia.
Abstract
Volcanic super-eruptions have been theorized to cause severe global cooling, with the 74 kya Toba eruption purported to have driven humanity to near-extinction. However, this eruption left little physical evidence of its severity and models diverge greatly on the magnitude of post-eruption cooling. A key factor controlling the super-eruption climate response is the size of volcanic sulfate aerosol, a quantity that left no physical record and is poorly constrained by models. Here we show that this knowledge gap severely limits confidence in model-based estimates of super-volcanic cooling, and accounts for much of the disagreement among prior studies. By simulating super-eruptions over a range of aerosol sizes, we obtain global mean responses varying from extreme cooling all the way to the previously unexplored scenario of widespread warming. We also use an interactive aerosol model to evaluate the scaling between injected sulfur mass and aerosol size. Combining our model results with the available paleoclimate constraints applicable to large eruptions, we estimate that global volcanic cooling is unlikely to exceed 1.5°C no matter how massive the stratospheric injection. Super-eruptions, we conclude, may be incapable of altering global temperatures substantially more than the largest Common Era eruptions. This lack of exceptional cooling could explain why no single super-eruption event has resulted in firm evidence of widespread catastrophe for humans or ecosystems.
Significance Statement
Whether volcanic super-eruptions pose a threat to humanity remains a subject of debate, with climate models disagreeing on the magnitude of global post-eruption cooling. We demonstrate that this disagreement primarily stems from a lack of constraint on the size of volcanic sulfate aerosol particles. By evaluating the range of aerosol size scenarios, we demonstrate that eruptions may be incapable of causing more than 1.5°C cooling no matter how much sulfur they inject into the stratosphere. This could explain why archaeological records provide no evidence of increased human mortality following the Toba super-eruption. Further, we raise the unexplored possibility that the largest super-eruptions could cause global-scale warming.
Abstract
Volcanic super-eruptions have been theorized to cause severe global cooling, with the 74 kya Toba eruption purported to have driven humanity to near-extinction. However, this eruption left little physical evidence of its severity and models diverge greatly on the magnitude of post-eruption cooling. A key factor controlling the super-eruption climate response is the size of volcanic sulfate aerosol, a quantity that left no physical record and is poorly constrained by models. Here we show that this knowledge gap severely limits confidence in model-based estimates of super-volcanic cooling, and accounts for much of the disagreement among prior studies. By simulating super-eruptions over a range of aerosol sizes, we obtain global mean responses varying from extreme cooling all the way to the previously unexplored scenario of widespread warming. We also use an interactive aerosol model to evaluate the scaling between injected sulfur mass and aerosol size. Combining our model results with the available paleoclimate constraints applicable to large eruptions, we estimate that global volcanic cooling is unlikely to exceed 1.5°C no matter how massive the stratospheric injection. Super-eruptions, we conclude, may be incapable of altering global temperatures substantially more than the largest Common Era eruptions. This lack of exceptional cooling could explain why no single super-eruption event has resulted in firm evidence of widespread catastrophe for humans or ecosystems.
Significance Statement
Whether volcanic super-eruptions pose a threat to humanity remains a subject of debate, with climate models disagreeing on the magnitude of global post-eruption cooling. We demonstrate that this disagreement primarily stems from a lack of constraint on the size of volcanic sulfate aerosol particles. By evaluating the range of aerosol size scenarios, we demonstrate that eruptions may be incapable of causing more than 1.5°C cooling no matter how much sulfur they inject into the stratosphere. This could explain why archaeological records provide no evidence of increased human mortality following the Toba super-eruption. Further, we raise the unexplored possibility that the largest super-eruptions could cause global-scale warming.
