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Eric A. Hendricks
,
Michal A. Kopera
,
Francis X. Giraldo
,
Melinda S. Peng
,
James D. Doyle
, and
Qingfang Jiang

Abstract

The utility of static and adaptive mesh refinement (SMR and AMR, respectively) are examined for idealized tropical cyclone (TC) simulations in a two-dimensional spectral element f-plane shallow-water model. The SMR simulations have varying sizes of the statically refined meshes (geometry based) while the AMR simulations use a potential vorticity (PV) threshold to adaptively refine the mesh to the evolving TC. Numerical simulations are conducted for four cases: (i) TC-like vortex advecting in a uniform flow, (ii) binary vortex interaction, (iii) barotropic instability of a PV ring, and (iv) barotropic instability of a thin strip of PV. For each case, a uniform grid high-resolution “truth” simulation is compared to two different SMR simulations and three different AMR simulations for accuracy and efficiency. The multiple SMR and AMR simulations have variations in the number of fully refined elements in the vicinity of the TC. For these idealized cases, it is found that the SMR and AMR simulations are able to resolve the vortex dynamical processes (e.g., barotropic instability, Rossby wave breaking, and filamentation) as well as the truth simulations, with no significant loss in accuracy in the refined region in the vortex vicinity and with significant speedups (factors of 4–15, depending on the total number of refined elements). The overall accuracy is enhanced by a greater area of fully refined mesh in both the SMR and AMR simulations.

Full access
Chun-Chieh Wu
,
Kun-Hsuan Chou
,
Po-Hsiung Lin
,
Sim D. Aberson
,
Melinda S. Peng
, and
Tetsuo Nakazawa

Abstract

Starting from 2003, a new typhoon surveillance program, Dropwindsonde Observations for Typhoon Surveillance near the Taiwan Region (DOTSTAR), was launched. During 2004, 10 missions for eight typhoons were conducted successfully with 155 dropwindsondes deployed. In this study, the impact of these dropwindsonde data on tropical cyclone track forecasts has been evaluated with five models (four operational and one research models). All models, except the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) hurricane model, show the positive impact that the dropwindsonde data have on tropical cyclone track forecasts. During the first 72 h, the mean track error reductions in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction’s (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS), the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) of the Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC), and the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) Global Spectral Model (GSM) are 14%, 14%, and 19%, respectively. The track error reduction in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, in which the initial conditions are directly interpolated from the operational GFS forecast, is 16%. However, the mean track improvement in the GFDL model is a statistically insignificant 3%. The 72-h-average track error reduction from the ensemble mean of the above three global models is 22%, which is consistent with the track forecast improvement in Atlantic tropical cyclones from surveillance missions. In all, despite the fact that the impact of the dropwindsonde data is not statistically significant due to the limited number of DOTSTAR cases in 2004, the overall added value of the dropwindsonde data in improving typhoon track forecasts over the western North Pacific is encouraging. Further progress in the targeted observations of the dropwindsonde surveillances and satellite data, and in the modeling and data assimilation system, is expected to lead to even greater improvement in tropical cyclone track forecasts.

Full access
Russell L. Elsberry
,
Eric A. Hendricks
,
Christopher S. Velden
,
Michael M. Bell
,
Melinda Peng
,
Eleanor Casas
, and
Qingyun Zhao

Abstract

A dynamic initialization assimilation scheme is demonstrated utilizing rapid-scan atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs) at 15-min intervals to simulate the real-time capability that now exists from the new generation of geostationary meteorological satellites. The impacts of these AMVs are validated with special Tropical Cyclone Intensity Experiment (TCI-15) datasets during 1200–1800 UTC 4 October leading up to a NASA WB-57 eyewall crossing of Hurricane Joaquin. Incorporating the AMV fields in the Spline Analysis at Mesoscale Utilizing Radar and Aircraft Instrumentation (SAMURAI) COAMPS Dynamic Initialization (SCDI) means there are 30 and 90 time steps on the 15- and 5-km grids, respectively, during which the mass fields are adjusted to these AMV-based wind increments during each 15-min assimilation period. The SCDI analysis of the three-dimensional vortex structure of Joaquin at 1800 UTC 4 October closely replicates the vortex tilt analyzed from the High-Definition Sounding System (HDSS) dropwindsondes. Vertical wind shears based on the AMVs at 15-min intervals are well correlated with the extreme rapid decay, an interruption of that rapid decay, and the subsequent period of constant intensity of Joaquin. Utilizing the SCDI analysis as the initial conditions for two versions of the COAMPS-TC model results in an accurate 72-h prediction of the interruption of the rapid decay and the period of constant intensity. Upscaling a similar SCDI analysis based on the 15-min interval AMVs provides a more realistic intensity and structure of Tropical Storm Joaquin for the initial conditions of the Navy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM) than the synthetic TC vortex used operationally. This demonstration for a single 6-h period of AMVs indicates the potential for substantial impacts when an end-to-end cycling version is developed.

Full access
Eric A. Hendricks
,
Yi Jin
,
Jonathan R. Moskaitis
,
James D. Doyle
,
Melinda S. Peng
,
Chun-Chieh Wu
, and
Hung-Chi Kuo

Abstract

High-impact Typhoon Morakot (2009) was investigated using a multiply nested regional tropical cyclone prediction model. In the numerical simulations, the horizontal grid spacing, cumulus parameterizations, and microphysical parameterizations were varied, and the sensitivity of the track, intensity, and quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) was examined. With regard to horizontal grid spacing, it is found that convective-permitting (5 km) resolution is necessary for a reasonably accurate QPF, while little benefit is gained through the use of a fourth domain at 1.67-km horizontal resolution. Significant sensitivity of the track forecast was found to the cumulus parameterization, which impacted the model QPFs. In particular, the simplified Arakawa–Schubert parameterization tended to erroneously regenerate the remnants of Tropical Storm Goni to the southwest of Morakot, affecting the large-scale steering flow and the track of Morakot. Strong sensitivity of the QPFs to the microphysical parameterization was found, with the track and intensity showing little sensitivity. It is also found that Morakot’s accumulated precipitation was reasonably predictable, with the control simulation producing an equitable threat score of 0.56 for the 3-day accumulated precipitation using a threshold of 500 mm. This high predictability of precipitation is due in part to more predictable large-scale and topographic forcing.

Full access
Chun-Chieh Wu
,
Jan-Huey Chen
,
Sharanya J. Majumdar
,
Melinda S. Peng
,
Carolyn A. Reynolds
,
Sim D. Aberson
,
Roberto Buizza
,
Munehiko Yamaguchi
,
Shin-Gan Chen
,
Tetsuo Nakazawa
, and
Kun-Hsuan Chou

Abstract

This study compares six different guidance products for targeted observations over the northwest Pacific Ocean for 84 cases of 2-day forecasts in 2006 and highlights the unique dynamical features affecting the tropical cyclone (TC) tracks in this basin. The six products include three types of guidance based on total-energy singular vectors (TESVs) from different global models, the ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF) based on a multimodel ensemble, the deep-layer mean (DLM) wind variance, and the adjoint-derived sensitivity steering vector (ADSSV). The similarities among the six products are evaluated using two objective statistical techniques to show the diversity of the sensitivity regions in large, synoptic-scale domains and in smaller domains local to the TC. It is shown that the three TESVs are relatively similar to one another in both the large and the small domains while the comparisons of the DLM wind variance with other methods show rather low similarities. The ETKF and the ADSSV usually show high similarity because their optimal sensitivity usually lies close to the TC. The ADSSV, relative to the ETKF, reveals more similar sensitivity patterns to those associated with TESVs. Three special cases are also selected to highlight the similarities and differences among the six guidance products and to interpret the dynamical systems affecting the TC motion in the northwestern Pacific. Among the three storms studied, Typhoon Chanchu was associated with the subtropical high, Typhoon Shanshan was associated with the midlatitude trough, and Typhoon Durian was associated with the subtropical jet. The adjoint methods are found to be more capable of capturing the signal of the dynamic system that may affect the TC movement or evolution than are the ensemble methods.

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Tim Boyer
,
Ellen Bartow-Gillies
,
A. Abida
,
Melanie Ades
,
Robert Adler
,
Susheel Adusumilli
,
W. Agyakwah
,
Brandon Ahmasuk
,
Laura S. Aldeco
,
Mihai Alexe
,
Eric J. Alfaro
,
Richard P. Allan
,
Adam Allgood
,
Lincoln. M. Alves
,
Jorge A. Amador
,
John Anderson
,
B. Andrade
,
Orlane Anneville
,
Yasuyuki Aono
,
Anthony Arguez
,
Carlo Arosio
,
C. Atkinson
,
John A. Augustine
,
Grinia Avalos
,
Cesar Azorin-Molina
,
Stacia A. Backensto
,
Stephan Bader
,
Julian Baez
,
Rebecca Baiman
,
Thomas J. Ballinger
,
Alison F. Banwell
,
M. Yu Bardin
,
Jonathan Barichivich
,
John E. Barnes
,
Sandra Barreira
,
Rebecca L. Beadling
,
Hylke E. Beck
,
Emily J. Becker
,
E. Bekele
,
Guillem Martín Bellido
,
Nicolas Bellouin
,
Angela Benedetti
,
Rasmus Benestad
,
Christine Berne
,
Logan. T. Berner
,
Germar H. Bernhard
,
Uma S. Bhatt
,
A. E. Bhuiyan
,
Siiri Bigalke
,
Tiago Biló
,
Peter Bissolli
,
W. Bjerke Jarle
,
Kevin Blagrave
,
Eric S. Blake
,
Stephen Blenkinsop
,
Jessica Blunden
,
Oliver Bochníček
,
Olivier Bock
,
Xavier Bodin
,
Michael Bosilovich
,
Olivier Boucher
,
Deniz Bozkurt
,
Brian Brettschneider
,
Francis G. Bringas
,
Francis Bringas
,
Dennis Buechler
,
Stefan A. Buehler
,
Brandon Bukunt
,
Blanca Calderón
,
Suzana J. Camargo
,
Jayaka Campbell
,
Diego Campos
,
Laura Carrea
,
Brendan R. Carter
,
Ivona Cetinić
,
Don P. Chambers
,
Duo Chan
,
Elise Chandler
,
Kai-Lan Chang
,
Hua Chen
,
Lin Chen
,
Lijing Cheng
,
Vincent Y. S. Cheng
,
Leah Chomiak
,
Hanne H. Christiansen
,
John R. Christy
,
Eui-Seok Chung
,
Laura M. Ciasto
,
Leonardo Clarke
,
Kyle R. Clem
,
Scott Clingan
,
Caio A.S. Coelho
,
Judah L. Cohen
,
Melanie Coldewey-Egbers
,
Steve Colwell
,
Owen R. Cooper
,
Richard C. Cornes
,
Kris Correa
,
Felipe Costa
,
Curt Covey
,
Lawrence Coy
,
Jean-François Créatux
,
Lenka Crhova
,
Theresa Crimmins
,
Meghan F. Cronin
,
Thomas Cropper
,
Molly Crotwell
,
Joshua Culpepper
,
Ana P. Cunha
,
Diego Cusicanqui
,
Rajashree T. Datta
,
Sean M. Davis
,
Veerle De Bock
,
Richard A. M. de Jeu
,
Jos De Laat
,
Bertrand Decharme
,
Doug Degenstein
,
Reynald Delaloye
,
Mesut Demircan
,
Chris Derksen
,
Ricardo Deus
,
K. R. Dhurmea
,
Howard J. Diamond
,
S. Dirkse
,
Dmitry Divine
,
Martin T. Dokulil
,
Markus G. Donat
,
Shenfu Dong
,
Wouter A. Dorigo
,
Caroline Drost Jensen
,
Matthew L. Druckenmiller
,
Paula Drumond
,
Marcel du Plessis
,
Hilary A. Dugan
,
Dashkhuu Dulamsuren
,
Devon Dunmire
,
Robert J. H. Dunn
,
Imke Durre
,
Geoff Dutton
,
Gregory Duveiller
,
Mithat Ekici
,
Alesksandra Elias Chereque
,
M. ElKharrim
,
Howard E. Epstein
,
Jhan-Carlo Espinoza
,
Thomas W. Estilow
,
Nicole Estrella
,
Nicolas Fauchereau
,
Robert S. Fausto
,
Richard A. Feely
,
Chris Fenimore
,
David Fereday
,
Xavier Fettweis
,
vitali E. Fioletov
,
Johannes Flemming
,
Chris Fogarty
,
Ryan L. Fogt
,
Bruce C. Forbes
,
Michael J. Foster
,
Bryan A. Franz
,
Natalie M. Freeman
,
Helen A. Fricker
,
Stacey M. Frith
,
Lucien Froidevaux
,
(JJ)
,
Steven Fuhrman
,
Martin Füllekrug
,
Catherine Ganter
,
Meng Gao
,
Alex S. Gardner
,
Judith Garforth
,
Jay Garg
,
Sebastian Gerland
,
Badin Gibbes
,
Sarah T. Gille
,
John Gilson
,
Karin Gleason
,
Nadine Gobron
,
Scott J. Goetz
,
Stanley B. Goldenberg
,
Gustavo Goni
,
Steven Goodman
,
Atsushi Goto
,
Jens-Uwe Grooß
,
Alexander Gruber
,
Guojun Gu
,
Charles “Chip” P. Guard
,
S. Hagos
,
Sebastian Hahn
,
Leopold Haimberger
,
Bradley D. Hall
,
Benjamin D. Hamlington
,
Edward Hanna
,
Inger Hanssen-Bauer
,
Daniel S. Harnos
,
Ian Harris
,
Qiong He
,
Richard R. Heim Jr.
,
Sverker Hellström
,
Deborah L. Hemming
,
Stefan Hendricks
,
J. Hicks
,
Hugo G. Hidalgo
,
Martin Hirschi
,
(Ben)
,
W. Hobbs
,
Robert M. Holmes
,
Robert Holzworth
,
Filip Hrbáček
,
Guojie Hu
,
Zeng-Zhen Hu
,
Boyin Huang
,
Hongjie Huang
,
Dale F. Hurst
,
Iolanda Ialongo
,
Antje Inness
,
Ketil Isaksen
,
Masayoshi Ishii
,
Gerardo Jadra
,
Svetlana Jevrejeva
,
Viju O. John
,
W. Johns
,
Bjørn Johnsen
,
Bryan Johnson
,
Gregory C. Johnson
,
Philip D. Jones
,
Timothy Jones
,
Simon A. Josey
,
G. Jumaux
,
Robert Junod
,
Andreas Kääb
,
K. Kabidi
,
Johannes W. Kaiser
,
Robb S.A. Kaler
,
Lars Kaleschke
,
Viktor Kaufmann
,
Amin Fazl Kazemi
,
Linda M. Keller
,
Andreas Kellerer-Pirklbauer
,
Mike Kendon
,
John Kennedy
,
Elizabeth C. Kent
,
Kenneth Kerr
,
Valentina Khan
,
Mai Van Khiem
,
Richard Kidd
,
Mi Ju Kim
,
Seong-Joong Kim
,
Zak Kipling
,
Philip J. Klotzbach
,
John A. Knaff
,
Akash Koppa
,
Natalia N. Korshunova
,
Benjamin M. Kraemer
,
Natalya A. Kramarova
,
A. C. Kruger
,
Andries Kruger
,
Arun Kumar
,
Michelle L’Heureux
,
Sofia La Fuente
,
Alo Laas
,
Zachary M. Labe
,
Rick Lader
,
Mónika Lakatos
,
Kaisa Lakkala
,
Hoang Phuc Lam
,
Xin Lan
,
Peter Landschützer
,
Chris W. Landsea
,
Timothy Lang
,
Matthias Lankhorst
,
Kathleen O. Lantz
,
Mark J. Lara
,
Waldo Lavado-Casimiro
,
David A. Lavers
,
Matthew A. Lazzara
,
Thierry Leblanc
,
Tsz-Cheung Lee
,
Eric M. Leibensperger
,
Chris Lennard
,
Eric Leuliette
,
Kinson H. Y. Leung
,
Jan L. Lieser
,
Tanja Likso
,
I-I. Lin
,
Jackie Lindsey
,
Yakun Liu
,
Ricardo Locarnini
,
Norman G. Loeb
,
Bryant D. Loomis
,
Andrew M. Lorrey
,
Diego Loyola
,
Rui Lu
,
Rick Lumpkin
,
Jing-Jia Luo
,
Kari Luojus
,
John M. Lyman
,
Stephen C. Maberly
,
Matthew J. Macander
,
Michael MacFerrin
,
Graeme A. MacGilchrist
,
Michelle L. MacLennan
,
Remi Madelon
,
Andrew D. Magee
,
Florence Magnin
,
Jostein Mamen
,
Ken D. Mankoff
,
Gloria L. Manney
,
Izolda Marcinonienė
,
Jose A. Marengo
,
Mohammadi Marjan
,
Ana E. Martínez
,
Robert A. Massom
,
Shin-Ichiro Matsuzaki
,
Linda May
,
Michael Mayer
,
Matthew R. Mazloff
,
Stephanie A. McAfee
,
C. McBride
,
Matthew F. McCabe
,
James W. McClelland
,
Michael J. McPhaden
,
Tim R. Mcvicar
,
Carl A. Mears
,
Walter N. Meier
,
A. Mekonnen
,
Annette Menzel
,
Christopher J. Merchant
,
Mark A. Merrifield
,
Michael F. Meyer
,
Tristan Meyers
,
David E. Mikolajczyk
,
John B. Miller
,
Diego G. Miralles
,
Noelia Misevicius
,
Alexey Mishonov
,
Gary T. Mitchum
,
Ben I. Moat
,
Leander Moesinger
,
Aurel Moise
,
Jorge Molina-Carpio
,
Ghislaine Monet
,
Stephan A. Montzka
,
Twila A. Moon
,
G. W. K. Moore
,
Natali Mora
,
Johnny Morán
,
Claire Morehen
,
Colin Morice
,
A. E. Mostafa
,
Thomas L. Mote
,
Ivan Mrekaj
,
Lawrence Mudryk
,
Jens Mühle
,
Rolf Müller
,
David Nance
,
Eric R. Nash
,
R. Steven Nerem
,
Paul A. Newman
,
Julien P. Nicolas
,
Juan J. Nieto
,
Jeannette Noetzli
,
Ben Noll
,
Taylor Norton
,
Kelsey E. Nyland
,
John O’Keefe
,
Naomi Ochwat
,
Yoshinori Oikawa
,
Yuka Okunaka
,
Timothy J. Osborn
,
James E. Overland
,
Taejin Park
,
Mark Parrington
,
Julia K. Parrish
,
Richard J. Pasch
,
Reynaldo Pascual Ramírez
,
Cécile Pellet
,
Mauri S. Pelto
,
Melita Perčec Tadić
,
Donald K. Perovich
,
Guðrún Nína Petersen
,
Kyle Petersen
,
Irina Petropavlovskikh
,
Alek Petty
,
Alexandre B. Pezza
,
Luciano P. Pezzi
,
Coda Phillips
,
Gareth K. Phoenix
,
Don Pierson
,
Izidine Pinto
,
Vanda Pires
,
Michael Pitts
,
Stephen Po-Chedley
,
Paolo Pogliotti
,
Kristin Poinar
,
Lorenzo Polvani
,
Wolfgang Preimesberger
,
Colin Price
,
Merja Pulkkanen
,
Sarah G. Purkey
,
Bo Qiu
,
Kenny Quisbert
,
Willy R. Quispe
,
M. Rajeevan
,
Andrea M. Ramos
,
William J. Randel
,
Mika Rantanen
,
Marilyn N. Raphael
,
James Reagan
,
Cristina Recalde
,
Phillip Reid
,
Samuel Rémy
,
Alejandra J. Reyes Kohler
,
Lucrezia Ricciardulli
,
Andrew D. Richardson
,
Robert Ricker
,
David A. Robinson
,
M. Robjhon
,
Willy Rocha
,
Matthew Rodell
,
Esteban Rodriguez Guisado
,
Nemesio Rodriguez-Fernandez
,
Vladimir E. Romanovsky
,
Josyane Ronchail
,
Matthew Rosencrans
,
Karen H. Rosenlof
,
Benjamin Rösner
,
Henrieke Rösner
,
Alexei Rozanov
,
Jozef Rozkošný
,
Frans Rubek
,
Olga O. Rusanovskaya
,
This Rutishauser
,
C. T. Sabeerali
,
Roberto Salinas
,
Ahira Sánchez-Lugo
,
Michelle L. Santee
,
Marcelo Santini
,
Katsunari Sato
,
Parnchai Sawaengphokhai
,
A. Sayouri
,
Theodore Scambos
,
Verena Schenzinger
,
Semjon Schimanke
,
Robert W. Schlegel
,
Claudia Schmid
,
Martin Schmid
,
Udo Schneider
,
Carl J. Schreck
,
Cristina Schultz
,
Science Systems and Applications Inc. Science Systems and Applications Inc.
,
Z. T. Segele
,
Serhat Sensoy
,
Shawn P. Serbin
,
Mark C. Serreze
,
Amsari Mudzakir Setiawan
,
Fumi Sezaki
,
Sapna Sharma
,
Jonathan D. Sharp
,
Gay Sheffield
,
Jia-Rui Shi
,
Lei Shi
,
Alexander I. Shiklomanov
,
Nikolay I. Shiklomanov
,
Svetlana V. Shimaraeva
,
R. Shukla
,
David A. Siegel
,
Eugene A. Silow
,
F. Sima
,
Adrian J. Simmons
,
David A. Smeed
,
Adam Smith
,
Sharon L. Smith
,
Brian J. Soden
,
Viktoria Sofieva
,
Everaldo Souza
,
Tim H. Sparks
,
Jacqueline Spence-Hemmings
,
Robert G. M. Spencer
,
Sandra Spillane
,
O. P. Sreejith
,
A. K. Srivastava
,
Paul W. Stackhouse Jr.
,
Sharon Stammerjohn
,
Ryan Stauffer
,
Wolfgang Steinbrecht
,
Andrea K. Steiner
,
Jose L. Stella
,
Tannecia S. Stephenson
,
Pietro Stradiotti
,
Susan E. Strahan
,
Dmitry A. Streletskiy
,
Divya E. Surendran
,
Anya Suslova
,
Tove Svendby
,
William Sweet
,
Kiyotoshi Takahashi
,
Kazuto Takemura
,
Suzanne E. Tank
,
Michael A. Taylor
,
Marco Tedesco
,
Stephen J. Thackeray
,
W. M. Thiaw
,
Emmanuel Thibert
,
Richard L. Thoman
,
Andrew F. Thompson
,
Philip R. Thompson
,
Xiangshan Tian-Kunze
,
Mary-Louise Timmermans
,
Maxim A. Timofeyev
,
Skie Tobin
,
Hans Tømmervik
,
Kleareti Tourpali
,
Lidia Trescilo
,
Mikhail Tretiakov
,
Blair C. Trewin
,
Joaquin A. Triñanes
,
Adrian Trotman
,
Ryan E. Truchelut
,
Luke D. Trusel
,
Mari R. Tye
,
Ronald van der A
,
Robin van der Schalie
,
Gerard van der Schrier
,
Cedric J. Van Meerbeeck
,
Arnold J.H. van vliet
,
Ahad Vazife
,
Piet Verburg
,
Jean-Paul Vernier
,
Isaac J. Vimont
,
Katrina Virts
,
Sebastián Vivero
,
Denis L. Volkov
,
Holger Vömel
,
Russell S. Vose
,
(Skip)
,
John E. Walsh
,
Bin Wang
,
Hui Wang
,
Muyin Wang
,
Ray H. J. Wang
,
Xinyue Wang
,
Rik Wanninkhof
,
Taran Warnock
,
Mark Weber
,
Melinda Webster
,
Adrian Wehrlé
,
Caihong Wen
,
Toby K. Westberry
,
Matthew J. Widlansky
,
David N. Wiese
,
Jeannette D. Wild
,
Jonathan D. Wille
,
An Willems
,
Kate M. Willett
,
Earle Williams
,
J. Willis
,
Takmeng Wong
,
Kimberly M. Wood
,
Richard Iestyn Woolway
,
Ping-Ping Xie
,
Dedi Yang
,
Xungang Yin
,
Ziqi Yin
,
Zhenzhong Zeng
,
Huai-min Zhang
,
Li Zhang
,
Peiqun Zhang
,
Lin Zhao
,
Xinjia Zhou
,
Zhiwei Zhu
,
Jerry R. Ziemke
,
Markus Ziese
,
Scott Zolkos
,
Ruxandra M. Zotta
,
Cheng-Zhi Zou
,
Jessicca Allen
,
Amy V. Camper
,
Bridgette O. Haley
,
Gregory Hammer
,
S. Elizabeth Love-Brotak
,
Laura Ohlmann
,
Lukas Noguchi
,
Deborah B. Riddle
, and
Sara W. Veasey

Abstract

—J. BLUNDEN, T. BOYER, AND E. BARTOW-GILLIES

Earth’s global climate system is vast, complex, and intricately interrelated. Many areas are influenced by global-scale phenomena, including the “triple dip” La Niña conditions that prevailed in the eastern Pacific Ocean nearly continuously from mid-2020 through all of 2022; by regional phenomena such as the positive winter and summer North Atlantic Oscillation that impacted weather in parts the Northern Hemisphere and the negative Indian Ocean dipole that impacted weather in parts of the Southern Hemisphere; and by more localized systems such as high-pressure heat domes that caused extreme heat in different areas of the world. Underlying all these natural short-term variabilities are long-term climate trends due to continuous increases since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution in the atmospheric concentrations of Earth’s major greenhouse gases.

In 2022, the annual global average carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere rose to 417.1±0.1 ppm, which is 50% greater than the pre-industrial level. Global mean tropospheric methane abundance was 165% higher than its pre-industrial level, and nitrous oxide was 24% higher. All three gases set new record-high atmospheric concentration levels in 2022.

Sea-surface temperature patterns in the tropical Pacific characteristic of La Niña and attendant atmospheric patterns tend to mitigate atmospheric heat gain at the global scale, but the annual global surface temperature across land and oceans was still among the six highest in records dating as far back as the mid-1800s. It was the warmest La Niña year on record. Many areas observed record or near-record heat. Europe as a whole observed its second-warmest year on record, with sixteen individual countries observing record warmth at the national scale. Records were shattered across the continent during the summer months as heatwaves plagued the region. On 18 July, 104 stations in France broke their all-time records. One day later, England recorded a temperature of 40°C for the first time ever. China experienced its second-warmest year and warmest summer on record. In the Southern Hemisphere, the average temperature across New Zealand reached a record high for the second year in a row. While Australia’s annual temperature was slightly below the 1991–2020 average, Onslow Airport in Western Australia reached 50.7°C on 13 January, equaling Australia's highest temperature on record.

While fewer in number and locations than record-high temperatures, record cold was also observed during the year. Southern Africa had its coldest August on record, with minimum temperatures as much as 5°C below normal over Angola, western Zambia, and northern Namibia. Cold outbreaks in the first half of December led to many record-low daily minimum temperature records in eastern Australia.

The effects of rising temperatures and extreme heat were apparent across the Northern Hemisphere, where snow-cover extent by June 2022 was the third smallest in the 56-year record, and the seasonal duration of lake ice cover was the fourth shortest since 1980. More frequent and intense heatwaves contributed to the second-greatest average mass balance loss for Alpine glaciers around the world since the start of the record in 1970. Glaciers in the Swiss Alps lost a record 6% of their volume. In South America, the combination of drought and heat left many central Andean glaciers snow free by mid-summer in early 2022; glacial ice has a much lower albedo than snow, leading to accelerated heating of the glacier. Across the global cryosphere, permafrost temperatures continued to reach record highs at many high-latitude and mountain locations.

In the high northern latitudes, the annual surface-air temperature across the Arctic was the fifth highest in the 123-year record. The seasonal Arctic minimum sea-ice extent, typically reached in September, was the 11th-smallest in the 43-year record; however, the amount of multiyear ice—ice that survives at least one summer melt season—remaining in the Arctic continued to decline. Since 2012, the Arctic has been nearly devoid of ice more than four years old.

In Antarctica, an unusually large amount of snow and ice fell over the continent in 2022 due to several landfalling atmospheric rivers, which contributed to the highest annual surface mass balance, 15% to 16% above the 1991–2020 normal, since the start of two reanalyses records dating to 1980. It was the second-warmest year on record for all five of the long-term staffed weather stations on the Antarctic Peninsula. In East Antarctica, a heatwave event led to a new all-time record-high temperature of −9.4°C—44°C above the March average—on 18 March at Dome C. This was followed by the collapse of the critically unstable Conger Ice Shelf. More than 100 daily low sea-ice extent and sea-ice area records were set in 2022, including two new all-time annual record lows in net sea-ice extent and area in February.

Across the world’s oceans, global mean sea level was record high for the 11th consecutive year, reaching 101.2 mm above the 1993 average when satellite altimetry measurements began, an increase of 3.3±0.7 over 2021. Globally-averaged ocean heat content was also record high in 2022, while the global sea-surface temperature was the sixth highest on record, equal with 2018. Approximately 58% of the ocean surface experienced at least one marine heatwave in 2022. In the Bay of Plenty, New Zealand’s longest continuous marine heatwave was recorded.

A total of 85 named tropical storms were observed during the Northern and Southern Hemisphere storm seasons, close to the 1991–2020 average of 87. There were three Category 5 tropical cyclones across the globe—two in the western North Pacific and one in the North Atlantic. This was the fewest Category 5 storms globally since 2017. Globally, the accumulated cyclone energy was the lowest since reliable records began in 1981. Regardless, some storms caused massive damage. In the North Atlantic, Hurricane Fiona became the most intense and most destructive tropical or post-tropical cyclone in Atlantic Canada’s history, while major Hurricane Ian killed more than 100 people and became the third costliest disaster in the United States, causing damage estimated at $113 billion U.S. dollars. In the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Batsirai dropped 2044 mm of rain at Commerson Crater in Réunion. The storm also impacted Madagascar, where 121 fatalities were reported.

As is typical, some areas around the world were notably dry in 2022 and some were notably wet. In August, record high areas of land across the globe (6.2%) were experiencing extreme drought. Overall, 29% of land experienced moderate or worse categories of drought during the year. The largest drought footprint in the contiguous United States since 2012 (63%) was observed in late October. The record-breaking megadrought of central Chile continued in its 13th consecutive year, and 80-year record-low river levels in northern Argentina and Paraguay disrupted fluvial transport. In China, the Yangtze River reached record-low values. Much of equatorial eastern Africa had five consecutive below-normal rainy seasons by the end of 2022, with some areas receiving record-low precipitation totals for the year. This ongoing 2.5-year drought is the most extensive and persistent drought event in decades, and led to crop failure, millions of livestock deaths, water scarcity, and inflated prices for staple food items.

In South Asia, Pakistan received around three times its normal volume of monsoon precipitation in August, with some regions receiving up to eight times their expected monthly totals. Resulting floods affected over 30 million people, caused over 1700 fatalities, led to major crop and property losses, and was recorded as one of the world’s costliest natural disasters of all time. Near Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, Petrópolis received 530 mm in 24 hours on 15 February, about 2.5 times the monthly February average, leading to the worst disaster in the city since 1931 with over 230 fatalities.

On 14–15 January, the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai submarine volcano in the South Pacific erupted multiple times. The injection of water into the atmosphere was unprecedented in both magnitude—far exceeding any previous values in the 17-year satellite record—and altitude as it penetrated into the mesosphere. The amount of water injected into the stratosphere is estimated to be 146±5 Terragrams, or ∼10% of the total amount in the stratosphere. It may take several years for the water plume to dissipate, and it is currently unknown whether this eruption will have any long-term climate effect.

Open access