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Bunmei Taguchi, Shang-Ping Xie, Niklas Schneider, Masami Nonaka, Hideharu Sasaki, and Yoshikazu Sasai

Abstract

Low-frequency variability of the Kuroshio Extension (KE) is studied using observations and a multidecadal (1950–2003) hindcast by a high-resolution (0.1°), eddy-resolving, global ocean general circulation model for the Earth Simulator (OFES). In both the OFES hindcast and satellite altimeter observations, low-frequency sea surface height (SSH) variability in the North Pacific is high near the KE front. An empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis indicates that much of the SSH variability in the western North Pacific east of Japan is explained by two modes with meridional structures tightly trapped along the KE front. The first mode represents a southward shift and to a lesser degree, an acceleration of the KE jet associated with the 1976/77 shift in basin-scale winds. The second mode reflects quasi-decadal variations in the intensity of the KE jet. Both the spatial structure and time series of these modes derived from the hindcast are in close agreement with observations.

A linear Rossby wave model forced by observed wind successfully reproduces the time series of the leading OFES modes but fails to explain why their meridional structure is concentrated on the KE front and inconsistent with the broadscale wind forcing. Further analysis suggests that KE variability may be decomposed into broad- and frontal-scale components in the meridional direction—the former following the linear Rossby wave solution and the latter closely resembling ocean intrinsic modes derived from an OFES run forced by climatological winds. The following scenario is suggested for low-frequency KE variability: basin-scale wind variability excites broadscale Rossby waves, which propagate westward, triggering intrinsic modes of the KE jet and reorganizing SSH variability in space.

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Yoshi N. Sasaki, Shoshiro Minobe, Niklas Schneider, Takashi Kagimoto, Masami Nonaka, and Hideharu Sasaki

Abstract

Sea level variability and related oceanic changes in the South Pacific from 1970 to 2003 are investigated using a hindcast simulation of an eddy-resolving ocean general circulation model (OGCM) for the Earth Simulator (OFES), along with sea level data from tide gauges since 1970 and a satellite altimeter since 1992. The first empirical orthogonal function mode of sea level anomalies (SLAs) of OFES exhibits broad positive SLAs over the central and western South Pacific. The corresponding principal component indicates roughly stable high, low, and high SLAs, separated by a rapid sea level fall in the late 1970s and sea level rise in the late 1990s, consistent with tide gauge and satellite observations. These decadal changes are accompanied by circulation changes of the subtropical gyre at 1000-m depth, and changes of upper-ocean zonal current and eddy activity around the Tasman Front. In general agreement with previous related studies, it is found that sea level variations in the Tasman Sea can be explained by propagation of long baroclinic Rossby waves forced by wind stress curl anomalies, if the impact of New Zealand is taken into account. The corresponding atmospheric variations are associated with decadal variability of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Thus, decadal sea level variability in the western and central South Pacific in the past three and half decades and decadal ENSO variability are likely to be connected. The sea level rise in the 1990s, which attracted much attention in relation to the global warming, is likely associated with the decadal cooling in the tropical Pacific.

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Jason C. Furtado, Emanuele Di Lorenzo, Niklas Schneider, and Nicholas A. Bond

Abstract

The two leading modes of North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) and sea level pressure (SLP), as well as their connections to tropical variability, are explored in the 24 coupled climate models used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) to evaluate North Pacific decadal variability (NPDV) in the past [twentieth century; climate of the twentieth century (20C3M) scenario] and future [twenty-first century; Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario] climate. Results indicate that the two dominant modes of North Pacific oceanic variability, the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), do not exhibit significant changes in their spatial and temporal characteristics under greenhouse warming. However, the ability of the models to capture the dynamics associated with the leading North Pacific oceanic modes, including their link to the corresponding atmospheric forcing patterns and to tropical variability, is questionable.

The temporal and spatial statistics of the North Pacific Ocean modes exhibit significant discrepancies from observations in their twentieth-century climate, most visibly for the second mode, which has significantly more low-frequency power and higher variance than in observations. The dynamical coupling between the North Pacific Ocean and atmosphere modes evident in the observations is very strong in the models for the first atmosphere–ocean coupled mode, which represents covariability of the PDO pattern with the Aleutian low (AL). However, the link for the second atmosphere–ocean coupled mode, describing covariability of an NPGO-like SST pattern with the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO), is not as clearly reproduced, with some models showing no relationship between the two.

Exploring the tropical Pacific–North Pacific teleconnections reveals more issues with the models. In contrast with observations, the atmospheric teleconnection excited by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation in the models does not project strongly on the AL–PDO coupled mode because of the displacement of the center of action of the AL in most models. Moreover, most models fail to show the observational connection between El Niño Modoki–central Pacific warming and NPO variability in the North Pacific. In fact, the atmospheric teleconnections associated with El Niño Modoki in some models have a significant projection on, and excite the AL–PDO coupled mode instead. Because of the known links between tropical Pacific variability and NPDV, these analyses demonstrate that focus on the North Pacific variability of climate models in isolation from tropical dynamics is likely to lead to an incomplete view, and inadequate prediction, of NPDV.

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Shayne McGregor, Axel Timmermann, Niklas Schneider, Malte F. Stuecker, and Matthew H. England

Abstract

During large El Niño events the westerly wind response to the eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) shifts southward during boreal winter and early spring, reaching latitudes of 5°–7°S. The resulting meridional asymmetry, along with a related seasonal weakening of wind anomalies on the equator are key elements in the termination of strong El Niño events. Using an intermediate complexity atmosphere model it is demonstrated that these features result from a weakening of the climatological wind speeds south of the equator toward the end of the calendar year. The reduced climatological wind speeds, which are associated with the seasonal intensification of the South Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ), lead to anomalous boundary layer Ekman pumping and a reduced surface momentum damping of the combined boundary layer/lower-troposphere surface wind response to El Niño. This allows the associated zonal wind anomalies to shift south of the equator. Furthermore, using a linear shallow-water ocean model it is demonstrated that this southward wind shift plays a prominent role in changing zonal mean equatorial heat content and is solely responsible for establishing the meridional asymmetry of thermocline depth in the turnaround (recharge/discharge) phase of ENSO. This result calls into question the sole role of oceanic Rossby waves in the phase synchronized termination of El Niño events and suggests that the development of a realistic climatological SPCZ in December–February/March–May (DJF/MAM) is one of the key factors in the seasonal termination of strong El Niño events.

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Ali Belmadani, Nikolai A. Maximenko, Julian P. Mccreary, Ryo Furue, Oleg V. Melnichenko, Niklas Schneider, and Emanuele Di Lorenzo

Abstract

Two numerical ocean models are used to study the baroclinic response to forcing by localized wind stress curl (i.e., a wind-forced β plume, which is a circulation cell developing to the west of the source region and composed of a set of zonal jets) with implications for the Hawaiian Lee Countercurrent (HLCC): an idealized primitive equation model [Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS)], and a global, eddy-resolving, general circulation model [Ocean General Circulation Model for the Earth Simulator (OFES)]. In addition, theoretical ideas inferred from a linear continuously stratified model are used to interpret results. In ROMS, vertical mixing preferentially damps higher-order vertical modes. The damping thickens the plume to the west of the forcing region, weakening the near-surface zonal jets and generating deeper zonal currents. The zonal damping scale increases monotonically with the meridional forcing scale, indicating a dominant role of vertical viscosity over diffusion, a consequence of the small forcing scale. In the OFES run forced by NCEP reanalysis winds, the HLCC has a vertical structure consistent with that of idealized β plumes simulated by ROMS, once the contribution of the North Equatorial Current (NEC) has been removed. Without this filtering, a deep HLCC branch appears artificially separated from the surface branch by the large-scale intermediate-depth NEC. The surface HLCC in two different OFES runs exhibits sensitivity to the meridional wind curl scale that agrees with the dynamics of a β plume in the presence of vertical viscosity. The existence of a deep HLCC extension is also suggested by velocities of Argo floats.

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Antonietta Capotondi, Andrew T. Wittenberg, Matthew Newman, Emanuele Di Lorenzo, Jin-Yi Yu, Pascale Braconnot, Julia Cole, Boris Dewitte, Benjamin Giese, Eric Guilyardi, Fei-Fei Jin, Kristopher Karnauskas, Benjamin Kirtman, Tong Lee, Niklas Schneider, Yan Xue, and Sang-Wook Yeh

Abstract

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a naturally occurring mode of tropical Pacific variability, with global impacts on society and natural ecosystems. While it has long been known that El Niño events display a diverse range of amplitudes, triggers, spatial patterns, and life cycles, the realization that ENSO’s impacts can be highly sensitive to this event-to-event diversity is driving a renewed interest in the subject. This paper surveys our current state of knowledge of ENSO diversity, identifies key gaps in understanding, and outlines some promising future research directions.

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Matthew Newman, Michael A. Alexander, Toby R. Ault, Kim M. Cobb, Clara Deser, Emanuele Di Lorenzo, Nathan J. Mantua, Arthur J. Miller, Shoshiro Minobe, Hisashi Nakamura, Niklas Schneider, Daniel J. Vimont, Adam S. Phillips, James D. Scott, and Catherine A. Smith

Abstract

The Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), the dominant year-round pattern of monthly North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) variability, is an important target of ongoing research within the meteorological and climate dynamics communities and is central to the work of many geologists, ecologists, natural resource managers, and social scientists. Research over the last 15 years has led to an emerging consensus: the PDO is not a single phenomenon, but is instead the result of a combination of different physical processes, including both remote tropical forcing and local North Pacific atmosphere–ocean interactions, which operate on different time scales to drive similar PDO-like SST anomaly patterns. How these processes combine to generate the observed PDO evolution, including apparent regime shifts, is shown using simple autoregressive models of increasing spatial complexity. Simulations of recent climate in coupled GCMs are able to capture many aspects of the PDO, but do so based on a balance of processes often more independent of the tropics than is observed. Finally, it is suggested that the assessment of PDO-related regional climate impacts, reconstruction of PDO-related variability into the past with proxy records, and diagnosis of Pacific variability within coupled GCMs should all account for the effects of these different processes, which only partly represent the direct forcing of the atmosphere by North Pacific Ocean SSTs.

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Arthur J. Miller, Michael A. Alexander, George J. Boer, Fei Chai, Ken Denman, David J. Erickson III, Robert Frouin, Albert J. Gabric, Edward A. Laws, Marlon R. Lewis, Zhengyu Liu, Ragu Murtugudde, Shoichiro Nakamoto, Douglas J. Neilson, Joel R. Norris, J. Carter Ohlmann, R. Ian Perry, Niklas Schneider, Karen M. Shell, and Axel Timmermann
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