Abstract

Regional and large-scale circulation anomalies associated with variations in rainfall downstream of the South American low-level jet are identified and compared to those in the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ). Composites of precipitation associated with strong jets reveal an approximate doubling of the quantities one would expect from climatology, with an evolution of the rainfall pattern from south to north. The occurrence of extreme precipitation events follows a similar pattern. Meridional cross sections of composite wind reveal a distinct low-level jet near 20°S and a baroclinic development farther south that appears to force the jet. Geopotential height, temperature, and large-scale wind composites suggest that this developing disturbance is tied to a wave train that originates in the midlatitude Pacific and turns equatorward as it crosses the Andes Mountains. Similar composites based on SACZ rainfall reveal similar features, but of opposite sign, suggesting that the phase of the wave as it crosses the Andes Mountains determines whether rainfall will be enhanced downstream of the jet or in the SACZ. The alternate suppression or enhancement of rainfall in these adjacent regions results in a precipitation “dipole.” Many previous studies have found a similar out-of-phase relationship over many time scales. The phase of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is composited relative to anomalous precipitation events, revealing statistically relevant amplitudes associated with rainfall both downstream of the jet and in the SACZ. The MJO is a particularly interesting intraseasonal oscillation because it has some predictability. It is speculated that the slowly varying dipole that has been observed is a consequence of the preferred phasing of synoptic waves due to variations of the planetary-scale basic-state flow, which is at times associated with the MJO.

Abstract

The relative contributions to mean global atmospheric moisture transport by both the time-mean circulation and by synoptic and low-frequency (periods greater than 10 days) anomalies are evaluated from the vertically integrated atmospheric moisture budget based on 40 yr of “chi corrected” NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data. In the extratropics, while the time-mean circulation primarily moves moisture zonally within ocean basins, low-frequency and synoptic anomalies drive much of the mean moisture transport both from ocean to land and toward the poles. In particular, during the cool-season low-frequency variability is the largest contributor to mean moisture transport into southwestern North America, Europe, and Australia. While some low-frequency transport originates in low latitudes, much is of extratropical origin due to large-scale atmospheric anomalies that extract moisture from the northeast Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. Low-frequency variability is also integral to the Arctic (latitudes > 70°N) mean moisture budget, especially during summer, when it drives mean poleward transport from relatively wet high-latitude continental regions. Synoptic variability drives about half of the mean poleward moisture transport in the midlatitudes of both hemispheres, consistent with simple “lateral mixing” arguments. Extratropical atmospheric transport is also particularly focused within “atmospheric rivers” (ARs), relatively narrow poleward-moving moisture plumes associated with frontal dynamics. AR moisture transport, defined by compositing fluxes over those locations and times where column-integrated water vapor and poleward low-level wind anomalies are both positive, represents most of the total extratropical meridional moisture transport. These results suggest that understanding potential anthropogenic changes in the earth ’s hydrological cycle may require understanding corresponding changes in atmospheric variability, especially on low-frequency time scales.

Abstract

UHF (boundary layer) and VHF (troposphere–stratosphere) wind profilers have operated at Christmas Island (2°N, 157°W) in the central equatorial Pacific from 1986 to 2002. Observed profiles of winds are sparse over the tropical oceans, but these are critical for understanding convective organization and the interaction of convection and waves. While the zonal winds below about 10 km have previously shown good agreement with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP–NCAR) reanalysis (RI), significant differences were found above a height of 10 km that were attributed to the low detectability of the wind signal in the profiler observations. Meridional winds at all levels show less agreement, with differences attributed to errors of representativeness and the sparseness of observations in the region. This paper builds on previous work using the Christmas Island wind profilers and presents the results of reprocessing the 17-yr profiler record with techniques that enhance the detectability of the signal at upper heights. The results are compared with nearby rawinsonde soundings obtained during a special campaign at Christmas Island and the RI, NCEP–Department of Energy (DOE) reanalysis (RII), and the 40-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-40). The newly processed profiler zonal and meridional wind observations show good agreement with rawinsonde observations from 0.5 to 19 km above sea level, with difference statistics similar to other studies. There is also significant improvement in the agreement of RI and RII reanalysis and profiler upper-level zonal and meridional winds from previous studies. A comparison of RII and ERA-40 reanalysis shows that difference statistics between the reanalyses are similar in magnitude to differences between the profiler and the individual reanalyses.

Abstract

Rainfall over tropical South America is known to be modulated by convectively coupled Kelvin waves (CCKWs). In this work, the origin and dynamical features of South American Kelvin waves are revisited using satellite-observed brightness temperature, radiosonde, and reanalysis datasets. Two main types of CCKWs over the Amazon are considered: Kelvin waves with a Pacific precursor, and Kelvin waves with a precursor originating over South America. Amazonian CCKWs associated with a preexisting Kelvin convection in the eastern Pacific account for about 35% of the total events. The cases with South American precursors are associated with either pressure surges in the western Amazon from extratropical wave train activity, responsible for 40% of the total events, or “in situ” convection that locally excites CCKWs, accounting for the remaining 25%. The analysis also suggests that CCKWs associated with different precursors are sensitive to Pacific sea surface temperature. Kelvin wave events with a Pacific precursor are more common during ENSO warm events, while Kelvin waves with extratropical South American precursors show stronger activity during La Niña events. This study also explores other triggering mechanisms of CCKWs over the Amazon. These mechanisms are associated with 1) extratropical Rossby wave trains not necessarily of extratropical South American origin; 2) CCKWs initiated in response to the presence of the southern and/or double intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) in the eastern Pacific Ocean; and 3) possible interaction between CCKWs and other equatorial waves in the Amazon.

Abstract

The structure and variability of convectively coupled Kelvin waves during the boreal summer are explored using satellite-observed brightness temperature data and ECMWF reanalyses. Kelvin wave activity is most prominent between the central and eastern Pacific, across Africa, and the Indian Ocean. Composite analysis shows that over sub-Saharan Africa Kelvin wave convection is peaked north of the equator, while the dynamical fields tend to be symmetric with respect to the equator. Convectively coupled Kelvin waves propagate faster over the Pacific and western Atlantic (∼24 m s⁻¹), and slow down over tropical Africa (∼14 m s⁻¹), consistent with stronger coupling between the dynamics and convection over tropical Africa. The Kelvin waves observed over Africa generally propagate into the region from anywhere between the eastern Pacific and the Atlantic, and decay over the eastern Indian Ocean basin.

Results show marked interannual variability of Kelvin wave activity over Africa. Anomalously high Kelvin wave variance tends to occur during dry years, while low variance occurs during wet years. African Kelvin wave activity is positively correlated with SST anomalies in the equatorial east Pacific. The same warm SST anomalies that are favorable for enhanced Kelvin wave activity suppress the mean rainfall over tropical Africa via a more slowly varying teleconnection and associated subsidence.

A brief analysis of an intense Kelvin wave in August 1987 (a dry year) shows a clear impact of the wave on convective development and daily rainfall over tropical Africa. This Kelvin wave was also associated with a series of easterly wave initiations over tropical Africa.

Abstract

This paper is part of a series of studies addressing the dynamics of the West African summer monsoon at intraseasonal time scales between 10 and 90 days. The dominant mode of 25–90-day convective variability in the African monsoon was investigated, starting from previous results involving the excitation of dry equatorial Kelvin and Rossby waves by a negative diabatic heat source located over the warm pool. This evolution is consistent with a significant contribution by a convectively coupled equatorial Rossby wave and the MJO. On the other hand, convectively coupled Kelvin waves as well as the dry Kelvin wave signal have a very weak impact. However, there is more to the global control of the African summer monsoon than convectively coupled wave dynamics. The active/break cycle of the Indian monsoon, controlled by a northward-moving dipole of diabatic heating in the Indian sector, can also influence the African monsoon through atmospheric teleconnections. Simulations performed with a dry primitive equation model show that this influence may be transferred through the northern Indian heat source, which excites a Rossby cyclonic circulation propagating westward over North Africa that is cut off by the northward arrival of the equatorial Indian heat source and the associated intrusion of an anticyclonic ridge. Low-level westerly winds and moisture advection within the ITCZ consequently increase over Africa. The mean time lag between an active phase over India and over Africa is about 15–20 days.

Abstract

Characteristics of precipitation estimates for rate and amount from three global high-resolution precipitation products (HRPPs), four global climate data records (CDRs), and four reanalyses are compared. All datasets considered have at least daily temporal resolution. Estimates of global precipitation differ widely from one product to the next, with some differences likely due to differing goals in producing the estimates. HRPPs are intended to produce the best snapshot of the precipitation estimate locally. CDRs of precipitation emphasize homogeneity over instantaneous accuracy. Precipitation estimates from global reanalyses are dynamically consistent with the large-scale circulation but tend to compare poorly to rain gauge estimates since they are forecast by the reanalysis system and precipitation is not assimilated. Regional differences among the estimates in the means and variances are as large as the means and variances, respectively. Even with similar monthly totals, precipitation rates vary significantly among the estimates. Temporal correlations among datasets are large at annual and daily time scales, suggesting that compensating bias errors at annual and random errors at daily time scales dominate the differences. However, the signal-to-noise ratio at intermediate (monthly) time scales can be large enough to result in high correlations overall. It is shown that differences on annual time scales and continental regions are around 0.8 mm day⁻¹, which corresponds to 23 W m⁻². These wide variations in the estimates, even for global averages, highlight the need for better constrained precipitation products in the future.

Abstract

Rainfall extremes have a large socioeconomic relevance for southern Vietnam. More than 30 million people live in this low-lying, flood-prone region in Southeast Asia. In this study the influence of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and convectively coupled equatorial waves on the modulation of daily rainfall during the rainy season (May–October) is evaluated and quantified using an extensive station database and the gridded Asian Precipitation–Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Toward Evaluation of Water Resources (APHRODITE) product for different phases of the equatorial waves.

The MJO, Kelvin, and equatorial Rossby (ER) waves significantly modulate daily rainfall in Vietnam south of 16°N. The MJO shows the most coherent signals across the region, followed by ER waves, whose influence is strongest in central Vietnam; Kelvin waves only affect the southern parts of Vietnam. For all waves, the frequency of occurrence of intense daily rainfall larger than 25 mm is significantly enhanced during wet phases, whereas the magnitude of rainfall anomalies is related to the wave’s amplitude only in the MJO and ER cases. A novel wave interference diagram reveals strong positive interferences of dry and wet anomalies when the MJO occurs concurrently with Kelvin and ER waves. In terms of causes of rainfall anomalies, the waves modulate tropospheric moisture convergence over the region, but a strong influence on the depth of the monsoon flow and the vertical wind shear is discernible from radiosonde data only for the MJO. The results suggest new opportunities for submonthly prediction of dry and wet spells in Indochina.

Abstract

Relationships between deep convection over South America and the atmospheric circulation are examined, with emphasis on submonthly variations of the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ) during austral summer. Outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) is used as a proxy for convection, while the associated circulation patterns are depicted by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Reanalysis.

Over South America and the adjacent oceans, OLR fluctuations with periods less than 90 days show maximum variance in the SACZ and over central South America during December–February. There is a local minimum in variance over the southern Amazon Basin, where mean convection is at a maximum. OLR spectra display several statistically relevant peaks corresponding to periods of less than 30 days over tropical South America, with the relative proportion of higher-frequency power increasing as the base grid point is moved to the southeast within the SACZ.

Correlations between submonthly (2–30-day) OLR in the vicinity of the SACZ and 200-mb streamfunction reveal the preferred path of Rossby wave energy impinging on the SACZ from the midlatitudes of the Southern Hemisphere. Episodes of enhanced convection within the SACZ, indicated by negative OLR anomalies, occur at the leading edge of upper-level troughs propagating into the region. The corresponding pattern at 850 mb reveals that the disturbances are nearly equivalent barotropic west of South America but tilt westward with height in the region of the SACZ. Negative low-level temperature anomalies lie to the southwest of the convection. The results are consistent with baroclinic development along an associated cold front.

Convection over the southwestern Amazon Basin on submonthly timescales is seen to progress into the region from the south. Upper-level anomalies, which at times may play a role in the initiation of the convection, move eastward and rapidly become decoupled from the convection. Low-level cold air along the eastern flank of the Andes appears linked to the convection as it moves northward. In contrast, convection over the southeastern Amazon is accompanied by disturbances moving into the area from the Atlantic, but there is little sign of a low-level temperature anomaly. In this case convection seems to result in cross-equatorial outflow into the North Atlantic, rather than be the result of forcing from the extratropics.

The authors speculate that the relatively stable position of the SACZ is associated with a Rossby wave guide, which ultimately is related to the large-scale circulation driven by sources and sinks of diabatic heating. It also appears that the SACZ forms when the northwesterly flow associated with a low-level trough is able to tap moisture from the Amazon.

Abstract

Despite decades of research on the role of moist convective processes in large-scale tropical dynamics, tropical forecast skill in operational models is still deficient when compared to the extratropics, even at short lead times. Here we compare tropical and Northern Hemisphere (NH) forecast skill for quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) in the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) and ECMWF Integrated Forecast System (IFS) during January 2015–March 2016. Results reveal that, in general, initial conditions are reasonably well estimated in both forecast systems, as indicated by relatively good skill scores for the 6–24-h forecasts. However, overall, tropical QPF forecasts in both systems are not considered useful by typical metrics much beyond 4 days. To quantify the relationship between QPF and dynamical skill, space–time spectra and coherence of rainfall and divergence fields are calculated. It is shown that while tropical variability is too weak in both models, the IFS is more skillful in propagating tropical waves for longer lead times. In agreement with past studies demonstrating that extratropical skill is partially drawn from the tropics, a comparison of daily skill in the tropics versus NH suggests that in both models NH forecast skill at lead times beyond day 3 is enhanced by tropical skill in the first couple of days. As shown in previous work, this study indicates that the differences in physics used in each system, in particular, how moist convective processes are coupled to the large-scale flow through these parameterizations, appear as a major source of tropical forecast errors.