Search Results

You are looking at 81 - 90 of 117 items for

  • Author or Editor: Wei Wang x
  • Refine by Access: All Content x
Clear All Modify Search
Christopher A. Davis, David A. Ahijevych, Wei Wang, and William C. Skamarock

Abstract

An evaluation of medium-range forecasts of tropical cyclones (TCs) is performed, covering the eastern North Pacific basin during the period 1 August–3 November 2014. Real-time forecasts from the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) and operational forecasts from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) are evaluated. A new TC-verification method is introduced that treats TC tracks as objects. The method identifies matching pairs of forecast and observed tracks, missed and false alarm tracks, and derives statistics using a multicategory contingency table methodology. The formalism includes track, intensity, and genesis.

Two configurations of MPAS, a uniform 15-km mesh and a variable-resolution mesh transitioning from 60 km globally to 15 km over the eastern Pacific, are compared with each other and with the operational GFS. The two configurations of MPAS reveal highly similar forecast skill and biases through at least day 7. This result supports the effectiveness of TC prediction using variable resolution.

Both MPAS and the GFS suffer from biases in predictions of genesis at longer time ranges; MPAS produces too many storms whereas the GFS produces too few. MPAS better discriminates hurricanes than does the GFS, but the false alarms in MPAS lower overall forecast skill in the medium range relative to GFS. The biases in MPAS forecasts are traced to errors in the parameterization of shallow convection south of the equator and the resulting erroneous invigoration of the ITCZ over the eastern North Pacific.

Full access
Chun-Chieh Wu, Tzu-Hsiung Yen, Ying-Hwa Kuo, and Wei Wang

Abstract

In this study, a series of numerical experiments are performed to examine the ability of a high-resolution mesoscale model to predict the track, intensity change, and detailed mesoscale precipitation distributions associated with Typhoon Herb (1996), which made landfall over Taiwan. The fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5), with a 2.2-km horizontal grid spacing, successfully simulates the mesoscale rainfall distribution associated with Herb, and the predicted maximum 24-h rainfall of 1199 mm accounts for about 70% of the observed amount of 1736 mm at Mount A-Li. It is shown that, with an accurate track simulation, the ability of the model to simulate successfully the observed rainfall is dependent on two factors: the model's horizontal grid spacing and its ability to describe the Taiwan terrain. The existence of the Central Mountain Range has only a minor impact on the storm track, but it plays a key role in substantially increasing the total rainfall amounts over Taiwan. The analysis presented here shows that the model and terrain resolutions play a nearly equivalent role in the heavy precipitation over Mount A-Li. The presence of maximum vertical motion and heating rate in the lower troposphere, above the upslope mountainous region, is a significant feature of forced lifting associated with the interaction of the typhoon's circulation and Taiwan's mountainous terrain. Overall, Typhoon Herb is a case in point to indicate the intimate relation between Taiwan's topography and the rainfall distribution associated with a typhoon at landfall.

Full access
Thomas R. Karl, Wei-Chyung Wang, Michael E. Schlesinger, Richard W. Knight, and David Portman

Abstract

Important surface observations such as the daily maximum and minimum temperature, daily precipitation, and cloud ceilings often have localized characteristics that are difficult to reproduce with the current resolution and the physical parameterizations in state-of-the-art General Circulation climate Models (GCMs). Many of the difficulties can be partially attributed to mismatches in scale, local topography. regional geography and boundary conditions between models and surface-based observations. Here, we present a method, called climatological projection by model statistics (CPMS), to relate GCM grid-point flee-atmosphere statistics, the predictors, to these important local surface observations. The method can be viewed as a generalization of the model output statistics (MOS) and perfect prog (PP) procedures used in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. It consists of the application of three statistical methods: 1) principle component analysis (FICA), 2) canonical correlation, and 3) inflated regression analysis. The PCA reduces the redundancy of the predictors The canonical correlation is used to develop simultaneous relationships between linear combinations of the predictors, the canonical variables, and the surface-based observations. Finally, inflated regression is used to relate the important canonical variables to each of the surface-based observed variables.

We demonstrate that even an early version of the Oregon State University two-level atmospheric GCM (with prescribed sea surface temperature) produces free-atmosphere statistics than can, when standardized using the model's internal means and variances (the MOS-like version of CPMS), closely approximate the observed local climate. When the model data are standardized by the observed free-atmosphere means and variances (the PP version of CPMS), however, the model does not reproduce the observed surface climate as well. Our results indicate that in the MOS-like version of CPMS the differences between the output of a ten-year GCM control run and the surface-based observations are often smaller than the differences between the observations of two ten-year periods. Such positive results suggest that GCMs may already contain important climatological information that can be used to infer the local climate.

Full access
Chao Wang, Liguang Wu, Jun Lu, Qingyuan Liu, Haikun Zhao, Wei Tian, and Jian Cao

Abstract

Understanding variations in tropical cyclone (TC) translation speed (TCS) is of great importance for islands and coastal regions since it is an important factor in determining TC-induced local damages. Investigating the long-term change in TCS was usually subject to substantial limitations in the quality of historical TC records, but here we investigated the interannual variability in TCS over the western North Pacific (WNP) Ocean by using reliable satellite TC records. It was found that both temporal changes in large-scale steering flow and TC track greatly contributed to interannual variability in the WNP TCS. In the peak season (July–September), TCS changes were closely related to temporal variations in large-scale steering flow, which was linked to the intensity of the western North Pacific subtropical high. However, for the late season (October–December), changes in TC track played a vital role in interannual variability in TCS while the impacts of temporal variations in large-scale steering were weak. The changes in TC track were mainly contributed by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-induced zonal migrations in TC genesis locations, which make more or fewer TCs move to the subtropical WNP, thus leading to notable changes in the basinwide TCS because of the much greater large-scale steering in the subtropical WNP. The increased influence of TC track change on TCS in the late season was linked to the greater contrast between the subtropical and the tropical large-scale steering in the late season. These results have important implications for understanding current and future variations in TCS.

Free access
Guoxing Chen, Wei-Chyung Wang, Chao-Tzuen Cheng, and Huang-Hsiung Hsu

Abstract

Winter extreme snowstorm events along the coast of the northeast United States have significant impacts on social and economic activities, and their potential changes under global warming are of great concern. Here, we adopted the pseudo–global warming approach to investigate the responses of 93 events identified in our previous observational analysis. The study was conducted by contrasting two sets of WRF simulations for each event: the first set driven by the ERA-Interim reanalysis and the second set by that data superimposed with mean-climate changes simulated from HiRAM historical (1980–2004) and future (2075–99; RCP8.5) runs. Results reveal that the warming together with increased moisture tends to decrease the snowfall along the coast but increase the rainfall throughout the region. For example, the number of events having daily snow water equivalent larger than 10 mm day−1 at Boston, Massachusetts; New York City, New York; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania; and Washington, D.C., is decreased by 47%, 46%, 30%, and 33%, respectively. The compensating changes in snowfall and rainfall lead to a total-precipitation increase in the three more-southern cities but a decrease in Boston. In addition, the southwestward shift of regional precipitation distribution is coherent with the enhancement (reduction) of upward vertical motion in the south (north) and the movement of cyclone centers (westward in 58% of events and southward in 72%). Finally, perhaps more adversely, because of the northward retreat of the 0°C line and the expansion of the near-freezing zone, the number of events with mixed rain and snow and freezing precipitation in the north (especially the inland area) is increased.

Restricted access
Chia-Chi Wang, Wei-Liang Lee, Yu-Luen Chen, and Huang-Hsiung Hsu

Abstract

The double intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) bias in the eastern Pacific in the Community Earth System Model version 1 with Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CESM1/CAM5) is diagnosed. In CAM5 standalone, the northern ITCZ is associated with inertial instability and the southern ITCZ is thermally forced. After air–sea coupling, the processes on both hemispheres are switched because the spatial pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) is changed.

Biases occur during boreal spring in both CAM5 and the ocean model. In CAM5 alone, weaker-than-observed equatorial easterly in the tropical eastern South Pacific leads to weaker evaporation and an increase in local SST. The shallow meridional circulation overly converges in the same region in the CAM5 standalone simulation, the planetary boundary layer and middle troposphere are too humid, and the large-scale subsidence is too weak at the middle levels. These biases may result from excessive shallow convection behavior in CAM5. The extra moisture would then fuel stronger convection and a higher precipitation rate in the southeastern Pacific.

In the ocean model, the South Equatorial Current is underestimated and the North Equatorial Countercurrent is located too close to the equator, causing a warm SST bias in the southeastern Pacific and a cold bias in the northeastern Pacific. These SST biases feed back to the atmosphere and further influence convection and the surface wind biases in the coupled simulation. When the convection in the tropical northeastern Pacific becomes thermally forced after coupling, the northern ITCZ is diminished due to colder SST, forming the so-called alternating ITCZ bias.

Full access
Xiaodong Huang, Zhaoyun Wang, Zhiwei Zhang, Yunchao Yang, Chun Zhou, Qingxuan Yang, Wei Zhao, and Jiwei Tian

Abstract

The role of mesoscale eddies in modulating the semidiurnal internal tide (SIT) in the northern South China Sea (SCS) is examined using the data from a cross-shaped mooring array. From November 2013 to January 2014, an anticyclonic eddy (AE) and cyclonic eddy (CE) pair crossed the westward SIT beam originating in Luzon Strait. Observations showed that, because of the current and stratification modulations by the eddy pair, the propagation speed of the mode-1 SIT sped up (slowed down) by up to 0.7 m s−1 (0.4 m s−1) within the AE’s (CE’s) southern portion. As a result of the spatially varying phase speed, the mode-1 SIT wave crest was clockwise rotated (counterclockwise rotated) within the AE (CE) core, while it exhibited convex and concave (concave and convex) patterns on the southern and northern peripheries of the AE (CE), respectively. In mid-to-late November, most of the mode-1 SIT energy was refracted by the AE away from Dongsha Island toward the north part of the northern SCS, which resulted in enhanced internal solitary waves (ISWs) there. Corresponding to the energy refraction, responses of the depth-integrated mode-1 SIT energy to the eddies were generally in phase at the along-beam-direction moorings but out of phase in the south and north parts of the northern SCS at the cross-beam-direction moorings. From late December to early January, intensified mode-2 SIT was observed, whose energy was likely transferred from the mode-1 SIT through eddy–wave interactions. The observation results reported here are helpful to improve the capability to predict internal tides and ISWs in the northern SCS.

Full access
Ji-Qin Zhong, Bing Lu, Wei Wang, Cheng-Cheng Huang, and Yang Yang

Abstract

In this study, the causes of the underestimated diurnal 2-m temperature range and the overestimated 2-m specific humidity in the winter of northern China in the Rapid-Refresh Multiscale Analysis and Prediction System–Short Term (RMAPS-ST) are investigated. Three simulations based on RMAPS-ST are conducted from 1 November 2016 to 28 February 2017. Further analyses show that the partitioning of surface upward sensible heat fluxes and downward ground heat fluxes might be the main contributing factor to the 2-m temperature forecast bias. In this study, two simulations are conducted to examine the effect of soil moisture initialization and soil hydraulic property on the 2-m temperature and 2-m specific humidity forecasts. First, the High-Resolution Land Data Assimilation System (HRLDAS) is used to provide an alternative soil moisture initialization. The results show that the drier soil moisture could lead to noticeable change in energy partitioning at the land surface, which in turn results in improved prediction of the diurnal 2-m temperature range, although it also enlarges the 2-m specific humidity bias in some parts of the domain. Second, a soil texture dataset developed by Beijing Normal University and the revised hydraulic parameters are applied to provide a more detailed description of soil properties, which could further improve the 2-m specific humidity bias. In summary, the combination of using optimized soil moisture initialization, an updated soil map, and revised soil hydraulic parameters can help improve the 2-m temperature and 2-m specific humidity prediction in RMAPS-ST.

Free access
Shou-Jun Chen, Ying-Hwa Kuo, Wei Wang, Zu-Yu Tao, and Bo Cui

Abstract

On 12–13 June 1991, a series of convective rainstorms (defined as mesoscale precipitation systems with rainfall rates exceeding 10 mm h−1) developed successively along the Mei-Yu front. During this event, new rainstorms formed to the east of preceding storms at an interval of approximately 300–400 km. The successive development and eastward propagation of these rainstorms produced heavy rainfall over the Jiang-Huai Basin in eastern China, with a maximum 24-h accumulation of 234 mm. This study presents the results of a numerical simulation of this heavy rainfall event using the Penn State–NCAR Mesoscale Model Version 5 (MM5) with a horizontal resolution of 54 km.

Despite the relatively coarse horizontal resolution, the MM5, using a moist physics package comprising an explicit scheme and the Grell cumulus parameterization, simulated the successive development of the rainstorms. The simulated rainstorms compared favorably with the observed systems in terms of size and intensity. An additional sensitivity experiment showed that latent heat release is crucial for the development of the rainstorms, the mesoscale low-level jet, the mesolow, the rapid spinup of vorticity, and the Mei-Yu frontogenesis. Without latent heat release, the maximum vertical motion associated with the rainstorm is reduced from 70 to 6 cm s−1.

Additional model sensitivity experiments using the Kain–Fritsch cumulus parameterization with grid sizes of 54 and 18 km produced results very similar to the 54-km control experiment with the Grell scheme. This suggests that the simulation of Mei-Yu rainstorms, the mesoscale low-level jet, and the mesolow is not highly sensitive to convective parameterization and grid resolution. In all the full-physics experiments, the model rainfall was dominated by the resolvable-scale precipitation. This is attributed to the high relative humidity and low convective available potential energy environment in the vicinity of the Mei-Yu front.

The modeling results suggest that there is strong interaction and positive feedback between the convective rainstorms embedded within the Mei-Yu front and the Mei-Yu front itself. The front provides a favorable environment for such rainstorms to develop, and the rainstorms intensify the Mei-Yu front.

Full access
Bingtian Li, Zexun Wei, Yonggang Wang, Xinyu Guo, Tengfei Xu, and Xianqing Lv

Abstract

An enhanced harmonic analysis (S_TIDE) approach is adopted to examine the seasonal variations of internal tidal amplitudes in the northern South China Sea (SCS). Results of idealized experiments reveal that the seasonality can be captured by S_TIDE. By applying S_TIDE to mooring data, observed seasonality of internal tidal amplitudes in the northern SCS are explored. Not diurnal and semidiurnal internal tides (ITs), but overtides and long-period constituents of ITs exhibit clear seasonal cycles. However, differences between amplitudes of the eastward velocity and the northward counterpart are evident for K1, M2, and MK3, which may be caused by the intensification of background currents. Amplitudes of those ITs are stronger at intersection time between spring and summer in the eastward direction, but weaker in the northward direction. EOF analysis reveals that modes of diurnal ITs are higher than those of semidiurnal ITs, which induces relatively more complicated seasonal variations. In addition to intensification of background currents, influences of surface tides and stratification will also induce variations of internal tidal amplitudes, introducing tremendous difficulty in predicting variation trends of internal tidal amplitudes, which greatly reduces predictability of ITs.

Restricted access