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  • Author or Editor: Akira Kuwano-Yoshida x
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Akira Kuwano-Yoshida
and
Yoshio Asuma

Abstract

Numerical simulations of six explosively developing extratropical cyclones in the northwestern Pacific Ocean region are conducted using a regional mesoscale numerical model [the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5)]. Cyclones are categorized according to the locations where they form and develop: Okhotsk–Japan Sea (OJ) cyclones originate over the eastern Asian continent and develop over the Sea of Japan or the Sea of Okhotsk, Pacific Ocean–land (PO–L) cyclones also form over the Asian continent and develop over the northwestern Pacific Ocean, and Pacific Ocean–ocean (PO–O) cyclones form and develop over the northwestern Pacific Ocean. Two cases (the most extreme and normal deepening rate cases for each cyclone type) are selected and simulated. Simulations show that the extreme cyclone of each type is characterized by a different mesoscale structure and evolutionary path, which strongly reflect the larger-scale environment: an OJ cyclone has the smallest deepening rates, associated with a distinct upper-level shortwave trough, a clear lower-level cold front, and a precipitation area that is far from the cyclone center; a PO–L cyclone has moderate deepening rates with high propagation speeds under zonally stretched upper-level jets; and a PO–O cyclone has the strongest deepening rates associated with large amounts of precipitation near its center. Sensitivity experiments involving the latent heat release associated with water vapor condensation show that PO–O cyclones rarely develop without a release of latent heat and their structures are drastically different from the control runs, while OJ cyclones exhibit almost the same developments and have similar structures to the control runs. These tendencies can be seen in both extreme and normal deepening rate cases. These results reveal that the importance of latent heat release to explosive cyclone development varies among the cyclone types, as is reflected by the cyclone origin, frontal structure, moisture distribution, and jet stream configuration.

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Akira Kuwano-Yoshida
and
Takeshi Enomoto

Abstract

The predictability of explosive cyclones over the northwestern Pacific region is investigated using an ensemble reanalysis dataset. Explosive cyclones are categorized into two types according to whether the region of the most rapid development is in the Sea of Okhotsk or Sea of Japan (OJ) or in the northwestern Pacific Ocean (PO). Cyclone-relative composite analyses are performed for analysis increments (the differences between the analysis and the 6-h forecast) and ensemble spreads (the standard deviations of ensemble members of the analysis or first guess) at the time of the maximum deepening rate. The increment composite shows that the OJ explosive cyclone center is forecast too far north compared to the analyzed center, whereas the PO explosive cyclone is forecast shallower than the analyzed center. To understand the cause of these biases, a diagnosis of the increment using the Zwack–Okossi (Z-O) development equation is conducted. The results suggest that the increment characteristics of both the OJ and PO explosive cyclones are associated with the most important cyclone development mechanisms. The OJ explosive cyclone forecast error is related to a deeper upper trough, whereas the PO explosive cyclone error is related to weaker latent heat release in the model. A diagnosis of the spread utilizing the Z-O development equation clarifies the mechanism underlying the uncertainty in the modeled sea level pressure. For OJ explosive cyclones, the spread of adiabatic warming causes substantial sea level pressure spreading southwest of the center of the cyclones. For PO explosive cyclones, the latent heat release causes substantial sea level pressure spreading around the cyclone center.

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Nobumasa Komori
,
Takeshi Enomoto
,
Takemasa Miyoshi
,
Akira Yamazaki
,
Akira Kuwano-Yoshida
, and
Bunmei Taguchi

ABSTRACT

Ensemble-based atmospheric data assimilation (DA) systems are sometimes afflicted with an underestimation of the ensemble spread near the surface caused by the use of identical boundary conditions for all ensemble members and the lack of atmosphere–ocean interaction. To overcome these problems, a new DA system has been developed by replacing an atmospheric GCM with a coupled atmosphere–ocean GCM, in which atmospheric observational data are assimilated every 6 h to update the atmospheric variables, whereas the oceanic variables are subject to no direct DA. Although SST suffers from the common biases among many coupled GCMs, two months of a retrospective analysis–forecast cycle reveals that the ensemble spreads of air temperature and specific humidity in the surface boundary layer are slightly increased and the forecast skill in the midtroposphere is rather improved by using the coupled DA system in comparison with the atmospheric DA system. In addition, surface atmospheric variables over the tropical Pacific have the basinwide horizontal correlation in ensemble space in the coupled DA system but not in the atmospheric DA system. This suggests the potential benefit of using a coupled GCM rather than an atmospheric GCM even for atmospheric reanalysis with an ensemble-based DA system.

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