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- Author or Editor: Alexander V. Ryzhkov x
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Abstract
This study describes, illustrates, and validates hail detection by a simplified version of the National Severe Storms Laboratory’s fuzzy logic polarimetric hydrometeor classification algorithm (HCA). The HCA uses four radar variables: reflectivity, differential reflectivity, cross-correlation coefficient, and “reflectivity texture” to classify echoes as rain mixed with hail, ground clutter–anomalous propagation, biological scatterers (insects, birds, and bats), big drops, light rain, moderate rain, and heavy rain. Diagnostic capabilities of HCA, such as detection of hail, are illustrated for a variety of storm environments using polarimetric radar data collected mostly during the Joint Polarimetric Experiment (JPOLE; 28 April–13 June 2003). Hail classification with the HCA is validated using 47 rain and hail reports collected by storm-intercept teams during JPOLE. For comparison purposes, probability of hail output from the Next-Generation Weather Radar Hail Detection Algorithm (HDA) is validated using the same ground truth. The anticipated polarimetric upgrade of the Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler network drives this direct comparison of performance. For the four examined cases, contingency table statistics show that the HCA outperforms the HDA. The superior performance of the HCA results primary from the algorithm’s lack of false alarms compared to the HDA. Statistical significance testing via bootstrapping indicates that differences in the probability of detection and critical success index between the algorithms are statistically significant at the 95% confidence level, whereas differences in the false alarm rate and Heidke skill score are statistically significant at the 90% confidence level.
Abstract
This study describes, illustrates, and validates hail detection by a simplified version of the National Severe Storms Laboratory’s fuzzy logic polarimetric hydrometeor classification algorithm (HCA). The HCA uses four radar variables: reflectivity, differential reflectivity, cross-correlation coefficient, and “reflectivity texture” to classify echoes as rain mixed with hail, ground clutter–anomalous propagation, biological scatterers (insects, birds, and bats), big drops, light rain, moderate rain, and heavy rain. Diagnostic capabilities of HCA, such as detection of hail, are illustrated for a variety of storm environments using polarimetric radar data collected mostly during the Joint Polarimetric Experiment (JPOLE; 28 April–13 June 2003). Hail classification with the HCA is validated using 47 rain and hail reports collected by storm-intercept teams during JPOLE. For comparison purposes, probability of hail output from the Next-Generation Weather Radar Hail Detection Algorithm (HDA) is validated using the same ground truth. The anticipated polarimetric upgrade of the Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler network drives this direct comparison of performance. For the four examined cases, contingency table statistics show that the HCA outperforms the HDA. The superior performance of the HCA results primary from the algorithm’s lack of false alarms compared to the HDA. Statistical significance testing via bootstrapping indicates that differences in the probability of detection and critical success index between the algorithms are statistically significant at the 95% confidence level, whereas differences in the false alarm rate and Heidke skill score are statistically significant at the 90% confidence level.
Abstract
Observations and recent high-resolution numerical model simulations indicate that liquid water and partially frozen hydrometeors can be lofted considerably above the environmental 0°C level in the updrafts of convective storms owing to the warm thermal perturbation from latent heating within the updraft and to the noninstantaneous nature of drop freezing. Consequently, upward extensions of positive differential reflectivity (i.e., Z DR ≥ 1 dB)—called Z DR columns—may be a useful proxy for detecting the initiation of new convective storms and examining the evolution of convective storm updrafts. High-resolution numerical simulations with spectral bin microphysics and a polarimetric forward operator reveal a strong spatial association between updrafts and Z DR columns and show the utility of examining the structure and evolution of Z DR columns for assessing updraft evolution. This paper introduces an automated Z DR column algorithm designed to provide additional diagnostic and prognostic information pertinent to convective storm nowcasting. Although suboptimal vertical resolution above the 0°C level and limitations imposed by commonly used scanning strategies in the operational WSR-88D network can complicate Z DR column detection, examples provided herein show that the algorithm can provide operational and research-focused meteorologists with valuable information about the evolution of convective storms.
Abstract
Observations and recent high-resolution numerical model simulations indicate that liquid water and partially frozen hydrometeors can be lofted considerably above the environmental 0°C level in the updrafts of convective storms owing to the warm thermal perturbation from latent heating within the updraft and to the noninstantaneous nature of drop freezing. Consequently, upward extensions of positive differential reflectivity (i.e., Z DR ≥ 1 dB)—called Z DR columns—may be a useful proxy for detecting the initiation of new convective storms and examining the evolution of convective storm updrafts. High-resolution numerical simulations with spectral bin microphysics and a polarimetric forward operator reveal a strong spatial association between updrafts and Z DR columns and show the utility of examining the structure and evolution of Z DR columns for assessing updraft evolution. This paper introduces an automated Z DR column algorithm designed to provide additional diagnostic and prognostic information pertinent to convective storm nowcasting. Although suboptimal vertical resolution above the 0°C level and limitations imposed by commonly used scanning strategies in the operational WSR-88D network can complicate Z DR column detection, examples provided herein show that the algorithm can provide operational and research-focused meteorologists with valuable information about the evolution of convective storms.
Abstract
On 8–9 February 2013, the northeastern United States experienced a historic winter weather event ranking among the top five worst blizzards in the region. Heavy snowfall and blizzard conditions occurred from northern New Jersey, inland to New York, and northward through Maine. Storm-total snow accumulations of 30–61 cm were common, with maximum accumulations up to 102 cm and snowfall rates exceeding 15 cm h−1. Dual-polarization radar measurements collected for this winter event provide valuable insights into storm microphysical processes. In this study, polarimetric data from the Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) in Upton, New York (KOKX), are investigated alongside thermodynamic analyses from the 13-km Rapid Refresh model and surface precipitation type observations from both Meteorological Phenomena Identification Near the Ground (mPING) and the National Weather Service (NWS) Forecast Office in Upton, New York, for interpretation of polarimetric signatures. The storm exhibited unique polarimetric signatures, some of which have never before been documented for a winter system. Reflectivity values were unusually large, reaching magnitudes >50 dBZ in shallow regions of heavy wet snow near the surface. The 0°C transition line was exceptionally distinct in the polarimetric imagery, providing detail that was often unmatched by the numerical model output. Other features include differential attenuation of magnitudes typical of melting hail, depolarization streaks that provide evidence of electrification, nonuniform beamfilling, a “snow flare” signature, and localized downward excursions of the melting-layer bright band collocated with observed transitions in surface precipitation types. In agreement with previous studies, widespread elevated depositional growth layers, located at temperatures near the model-predicted −15°C isotherm, appear to be correlated with increased snowfall and large reflectivity factors Z H near the surface.
Abstract
On 8–9 February 2013, the northeastern United States experienced a historic winter weather event ranking among the top five worst blizzards in the region. Heavy snowfall and blizzard conditions occurred from northern New Jersey, inland to New York, and northward through Maine. Storm-total snow accumulations of 30–61 cm were common, with maximum accumulations up to 102 cm and snowfall rates exceeding 15 cm h−1. Dual-polarization radar measurements collected for this winter event provide valuable insights into storm microphysical processes. In this study, polarimetric data from the Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) in Upton, New York (KOKX), are investigated alongside thermodynamic analyses from the 13-km Rapid Refresh model and surface precipitation type observations from both Meteorological Phenomena Identification Near the Ground (mPING) and the National Weather Service (NWS) Forecast Office in Upton, New York, for interpretation of polarimetric signatures. The storm exhibited unique polarimetric signatures, some of which have never before been documented for a winter system. Reflectivity values were unusually large, reaching magnitudes >50 dBZ in shallow regions of heavy wet snow near the surface. The 0°C transition line was exceptionally distinct in the polarimetric imagery, providing detail that was often unmatched by the numerical model output. Other features include differential attenuation of magnitudes typical of melting hail, depolarization streaks that provide evidence of electrification, nonuniform beamfilling, a “snow flare” signature, and localized downward excursions of the melting-layer bright band collocated with observed transitions in surface precipitation types. In agreement with previous studies, widespread elevated depositional growth layers, located at temperatures near the model-predicted −15°C isotherm, appear to be correlated with increased snowfall and large reflectivity factors Z H near the surface.
Abstract
This study investigates the use of tornadic debris signature (TDS) parameters to estimate tornado damage severity using Norman, Oklahoma (KOUN), polarimetric radar data (polarimetric version of the Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler radar). Several TDS parameters are examined, including parameters based on the 10th or 90th percentiles of polarimetric variables (lowest tilt TDS parameters) and TDS parameters based on the TDS volumetric coverage (spatial TDS parameters). Two highly detailed National Weather Service (NWS) damage surveys are compared to TDS parameters. The TDS parameters tend to be correlated with the enhanced Fujita scale (EF) rating. The 90th percentile reflectivity, TDS height, and TDS volume increase during tornado intensification and decrease during tornado dissipation. For 14 tornado cases, the maximum or minimum TDS parameter values are compared to the tornado’s EF rating. For tornadoes with a higher EF rating, higher maximum values of the 90th percentile Z HH, TDS height, and volume, as well as lower minimum values of 10th percentile ρ HV and Z DR, are observed. Maxima in spatial TDS parameters are observed after periods of severe, widespread tornado damage for violent tornadoes. This paper discusses how forecasters could use TDS parameters to obtain near-real-time information about tornado damage severity and spatial extent.
Abstract
This study investigates the use of tornadic debris signature (TDS) parameters to estimate tornado damage severity using Norman, Oklahoma (KOUN), polarimetric radar data (polarimetric version of the Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler radar). Several TDS parameters are examined, including parameters based on the 10th or 90th percentiles of polarimetric variables (lowest tilt TDS parameters) and TDS parameters based on the TDS volumetric coverage (spatial TDS parameters). Two highly detailed National Weather Service (NWS) damage surveys are compared to TDS parameters. The TDS parameters tend to be correlated with the enhanced Fujita scale (EF) rating. The 90th percentile reflectivity, TDS height, and TDS volume increase during tornado intensification and decrease during tornado dissipation. For 14 tornado cases, the maximum or minimum TDS parameter values are compared to the tornado’s EF rating. For tornadoes with a higher EF rating, higher maximum values of the 90th percentile Z HH, TDS height, and volume, as well as lower minimum values of 10th percentile ρ HV and Z DR, are observed. Maxima in spatial TDS parameters are observed after periods of severe, widespread tornado damage for violent tornadoes. This paper discusses how forecasters could use TDS parameters to obtain near-real-time information about tornado damage severity and spatial extent.
